Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors
Cook, J., Ellerton, P., & Kinkead, D. (2018). Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors. Environmental Research Letters, 13(2), 024018. Link to PDF & Link to Supplement
The table below is inspired by the simplified supplement and may differ slightly from what is shown in the GIF. This is mostly due to make the text fit into the available space which made it necessary to reword some of it.
| 1 | Identify claim | It’s cold outside, so global warming isn't happening. |
| 2 | Argument structure | Premise 1: Some areas of the world are experiencing record cold temperatures. Conclusion: The Earth is not warming. |
| 3 | Inferential Intent |
Deduction |
| 4 | Validity | INVALID Conclusion doesn't follow from premise. Global warming doesn't mean that cold will never happen anywhere. |
| 4a | Hidden premises | Premise 1: Some areas of the world are experiencing record cold temperatures Premise 2: If the Earth is warming, no areas can experience cooler weather than usual Conclusion: The earth is not warming. |
| 5 | Check premises | Premise 1 is true (it's however also an anecdote!). Premise 2 is false: impossible expectations. The overall planet warming does not mean every part of the planet is warming - some areas can show cooling. |
| 6 | Status of claim | FALSE With the added hidden premise, the argument is made valid but contains a false premise. |
| 7 | Summary of fallacies | Impossible expectations: Global warming doesn't mean that cold events never happen. Instead, it means cold events are less likely to happen over time. Global warming is like rigging the weather dice, making it more likely to get hot days. |
Does cold weather disprove global warming?
Blog post with background information about the myth deconstructions: Myth deconstructions as animated gifs
To learn more about the fallacies used in the myth deconstructions: A history of FLICC: the 5 techniques of science denial
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