Peer reviewed impacts of global warming

If the IPCC's mistaken prediction that the Himalayan glaciers would be gone by 2035 taught us anything, it's that we should always source our information from peer reviewed scientific literature rather than media articles. Consequently, I've spent the weekend overhauling the list of positives and negatives of global warming so that all sources were peer reviewed. The list is by no means comprehensive and I welcome any comments mentioning other impacts of global warming found in peer reviewed papers (good or bad). Please include a link to either the abstract or if possible, the full paper. Note to skeptics - here is an opportunity to pad out the positive column if you can find peer reviewed papers outlining any benefits of global warming.

Positives

Negatives

Agriculture

Agriculture

  • Decelerating tropical forest growth (Feeley 2007)
  • Increase of wildfire activity (Westerling 2006)
  • Increased range and severity of crop disease (Evans 2008)
  • Encroachment of shrubs into grasslands, rendering rangeland unsuitable for domestic livestock grazing (Morgan 2007)
  • Decreased water supply in the Colorado River Basin (McCabe 2007)
  • Decreasing water supply to the Murray-Darling Basin (Cai 2008)
  • Decreasing human water supplies, increased fire frequency, ecosystem change and expanded deserts (Solomon 2009)
  • Decline in rice yields due to warmer nighttime minimum temperatures (Peng 2004, Tao 2008)

Health

  • Winter deaths will decline as temperatures warm (HPA 2007)

Health

  • Increased deaths to heatwaves - 5.74% increase to heatwaves compared to 1.59% to cold snaps (Medina-Ramon 2007)
  • Spread in mosquite-borne diseases such as Malaria and Dengue Fever (Epstein 1998)
  • Increase in occurrence of allergic symptoms due to rise in allergenic pollen (Rogers 2006)

Arctic Melt

  • An ice-free Northwest Passage, providing a shipping shortcut between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (Kerr 2002, Stroeve 2008)

Arctic Melt

  • Loss of 2/3 of the world's polar bear population within 50 years (Amstrup 2007)
  • Melting of Arctic lakes leading to positive feedback from methane bubbling (Walter 2007)
  • Less compacted ice, hazardous floes and more mobile icebergs posing increased risk to shipping (IICWG 2009)
  • Drying of arctic ponds with subsequent damage to ecosystem (Smol 2007)

Environment

  • Greener rainforests due to higher sunlight levels due to fewer rain clouds (Saleska 2009)
  • Increase in chinstrap and gentoo penguins (Ducklow 2006)

Environment

  • Rainforests releasing CO2 as regions become drier (Saleska 2009)
  • Extinction of the European land leech (Kutschera 2007)
  • Decrease in Adélie penguin numbers  (Ducklow 2006)
  • Disruption to New Zealand aquatic species such as salmonids, stream invertebrates, fishes (Ryan 2007)
  • Oxygen poor ocean zones are growing  (Stramma 2008, Shaffer 2009)
  • Increased mortality rates of healthy trees in Western U.S. forest (Pennisi 2009)
  • More severe and extensive vegetation die-off due to warmer droughts (Breshears 2009)
  • Increased pine tree mortality due to outbreaks of pine beetles (Kurz 2008)

Ocean Acidification

  • Oceans uptake of carbon dioxide, moderates future global warming (Orr 2005)

Ocean Acidification

Glacier Melt

Glacier Melt

  • Severe consequences for one-sixth of world's population dependent on glacial melt for water supply (Barnett 2005)

Economical

  • Increased cod fishing leading to improved Greenland economy (Nyegaard 2007)

Economical

  • Economic damage to poorer, low latitude countries (Mendelsohn 2006)
  • Billions of dollars of damage to public infrastructure (Larsen 2007)
  • Reduced water supply in New Mexico (Hurd 2008)

Posted by John Cook on Sunday, 24 January, 2010

Creative Commons License The Skeptical Science website by Skeptical Science is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.