New research, November 13-19, 2017

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The Canadian hockey stick shown above in blue is from paper #17.

Climate change mitigation

1. Warning signs for stabilizing global CO 2 emissions

"Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of all CO 2 emissions from human activities. For the last three years, such emissions were stable, despite continuing growth in the global economy. Many positive trends contributed to this unique hiatus, including reduced coal use in China and elsewhere, continuing gains in energy efficiency, and a boom in low-carbon renewables such as wind and solar. However, the temporary hiatus appears to have ended in 2017. For 2017, we project emissions growth of 2.0% (range: 0.8%−3.0%) from 2016 levels (leap-year adjusted), reaching a record 36.8 ± 2 Gt CO 2 . Economic projections suggest further emissions growth in 2018 is likely. Time is running out on our ability to keep global average temperature increases below 2 °C and, even more immediately, anything close to 1.5 °C."

2. Confirmation of elevated methane emissions in Utah's Uintah Basin with ground-based observations and a high-resolution transport model

"At both Horsepool and Castlepeak, the diurnal cycle of modeled CH₄ concentrations was captured using NOAA emission estimates, but was underestimated using the EPA inventory. These findings corroborate emission estimates from the NOAA inventory, based on daytime mass balance estimates, and provide additional support for a suggested leak rate from the Uintah Basin that is higher than most other regions with natural gas and oil development."

3. Impacts of projected urban expansion and global warming on cooling energy demand over a semiarid region

"Under the highest greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5), adverse effects on mean air temperature of global warming overwhelm those from the urbanization of new areas. In particular, the mean temperature increase for a summer period due to global warming and urban expansion in the Phoenix metropolitan area is 3.6 °C and in the Tucson metropolitan area, it is 3.1 °C. These result in an increase in the spatial density of the cooling energy demand (MW km−2) by 36.2 and 42.6% in the respective regions compared to present consumption. The citywide cooling energy demand (MW) on the other hand, is expected to increase up to a factor two (Phoenix) and three (Tucson), with ∼75% of this increase due to urban expansion, and ∼25% due to global warming."

4. Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050

5. Possibilities for near-term bioenergy production and GHG-mitigation through sustainable intensification of agriculture and forestry in Denmark

6. Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations

8. Oil palm expansion in Cameroon: Insights into sustainability opportunities and challenges in Africa

9. Greenhouse gas and energy balance of Jatropha biofuel production systems of Burkina Faso

10. Cost reduction potential of parabolic trough based concentrating solar power plants in India

11. Cartograms facilitate communication of climate change risks and responsibilities

12. Replacement policy of residential lighting optimized for cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change

13. Recent changes in extreme floods across multiple continents

"The occurrence of rare floods in spatial aggregate shows strong temporal variability and peaked around 1995. During the 30 year period, there are overall increases in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme floods. These increases are strongest in Europe and the United States, and weakest in Brazil and Australia."

14. Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming

"For example, we find that events similar to the European record hot summer of 2003, which caused tens of thousands of excess deaths, would be very likely at least 24% less frequent in a world at 1.5 °C global warming compared to 2 °C global warming. Under 2 °C of global warming, we could expect such extreme summer temperatures in the historical record to become commonplace, occurring in at least one-in-every-two years."

15. Aerosol trends as a potential driver of regional climate in the central United States: evidence from observations

"Taken together, these results suggest that climate and regional hydrology in the central US are sensitive to the recent reductions in aerosol concentrations. Our work has implications for severely polluted regions outside the US, where improvements in air quality due to reductions in the aerosol burden could inadvertently pose an enhanced climate risk."

16. Groundwater Depletion: A Significant Unreported Source of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

"We suggest that groundwater depletion adds significant and measurable CO2 to the atmosphere and should be considered as a source in future CO2 budgets as groundwater depletion at the same or greater rate is likely to continue"

17. Episodic Neoglacial expansion and rapid 20th century retreat of a small ice cap on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada, and modeled temperature change

"Model experiments show that at least ∼ 0.44?°C of cooling over the past 2?kyr is required for the ice cap to reach its 1900?CE margin, and that the period from ∼ 1000 to 1900?CE must have been at least 0.25°?C cooler than the previous millennium, results that agree with regional temperature reconstructions and climate model simulations. However, significant warming since 1900?CE is required to explain retreat to its present position, and, at the same rate of warming, the ice cap will disappear before 2100?CE."

18. Comparison of Mechanisms for Low-Frequency Variability of Summer Arctic Sea Ice in Three Coupled Climate Models

19. Recent Progress in Greenland Ice Sheet Modelling

20. Predicting the geothermal heat flux in Greenland: a Machine Learning approach

21. Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

22. No surface cooling over Antarctica from the negative greenhouse effect associated with instantaneous quadrupling of CO₂ concentrations

23. Oceanographic Controls on the Variability of Ice-Shelf Basal Melting and Circulation of Glacial Meltwater in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica

24. Agreement of CMIP5 Simulated and Observed Ocean Anthropogenic CO₂ Uptake

25. A mechanistic model of an upper bound on oceanic carbon export as a function of mixed layer depth and temperature

26. Contributions of the troposphere and stratosphere to CH₄ model biases

27. Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

28. Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

29. Synoptic climatology of winter daily temperature extremes in Sapporo, northern Japan

30. Reassessment of urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends at an urban station of North China

31. Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming

32. Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in modulating the climate response to a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption

33. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

34. Sea surface temperature in the subtropical Pacific boosted the 2015 El Niño and hindered the 2016 La Niña

35. Contributions of Interdecadal Pacific Osc illation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Global Ocean Heat Content Distribution

36. Global assessment of groundwater sustainability based on storage anomalies

37. Spatial representativeness of surface-measured variations of downward solar radiation

38. Cloud climatologies from the infrared sounders AIRS and IASI: strengths and applications

39. Using Long-term Satellite Observations to Identify Sensitive Regimes and Active Regions of Aerosol Indirect Effects for Liquid Clouds over Global Oceans

40. The warming of large lakes on the Tibetan Plateau-evidence from a lake model simulation of Nam Co, China, during 1979-2012

41. Human-induced river runoff overlapping natural climate variability over the last 150 years: Palynological evidence (Bay of Brest, NW France)

42. Flood runoff in relation to water vapor transport by atmospheric rivers over the western United States, 1949-2015

43. Ocean-bottom deformation due to present-day mass redistribution and its impact on sea-level observations

44. Characteristics of Explosive Cyclones over the Northern Pacific

45. Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres over the Tropical Western North Pacific

Climate change impacts

46. Effects of heat waves on daily excess mortality in 14 Korean cities during the past 20 years (1991–2010): an application of the spatial synoptic classification approach

"The result showed that dry tropical (DT) days during early summer caused excess mortality due to non-acclimatization by inhabitants, and moist tropical (MT) plus and double plus resulted in greater spikes of excess mortality due to extremely hot and humid conditions. Among the 14 Korean cities, highly excess mortality for the elderly was observed in Incheon (23.2%, 95%CI 5.6), Seoul (15.8%, 95%CI 2.6), and Jeonju (15.8%, 95%CI 4.6). No time lag effect was observed, and excess mortality gradually increased with time and hot weather simultaneously."

47. The catastrophic landside in Maoxian County, Sichuan, SW China, on June 24, 2017

"In virtue of the in situ reconnaissance conducted by geological experts, the main reason for the collapse is the high-level and long-distance debris flow in earthquake fracture zone induced by continuous rainfall."

48. Impact of sea level rise and coastal slope on shoreline change along the Indian coast

"The present study demonstrates that coastal slope is an additional parameter responsible for the movement of shoreline along with sea level change. The results of satellite-derived SCR reveal the highest percentage of erosion along West Bengal coast with 70% followed by Kerala (65%), Gujarat (60%) and Odisha (50%). The coastlines of remaining states recorded less than 50% of coasts under erosion."

49. Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change

"In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship."

50. Biodiversity and climate determine the functioning of Neotropical forests

"Water availability has a strong positive effect on biomass stocks and growth, and a future predicted increase in (atmospheric) drought might, therefore, potentially reduce carbon storage. Forest attributes, including species diversity and community-weighted mean traits, have independent and important relationships with AGB stocks, dynamics and ecosystem functioning, not only in relatively simple temperate systems, but also in structurally complex hyper-diverse tropical forests."

51. Annual Global Mean Temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955-2010

52. Translating Uncertain Sea Level Projections into Infrastructure Impacts Using a Bayesian Framework

53. Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate

54. Increasing canopy photosynthesis in rice can be achieved without a large increase in water use–a model based on free-air CO₂ enrichment

55. Analysis of agro-climatic parameters and their influence on maize production in South Africa

56. Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenological trends of spring and winter wheat in China

57. Responses of rubber leaf phenology to climatic variations in Southwest China

58. Groundwater-dependent irrigation costs and benefits for adaptation to global change

59. Heat stress in cows at pasture and benefit of shade in a temperate climate region

60. Effect of climatic and soil moisture conditions on mushroom productivity and related ecosystem services in Mediterranean pine stands facing climate change

61. Accessing the southeastern Brazil 2014 drought severity on the vegetation health by satellite image

62. Estimation of carbon sequestration in China's forests induced by atmospheric wet nitrogen deposition using the principles of ecological stoichiometry