A plethora of previous research and observation has pointed to an ultimate demise of multi-year ice in the Artic, with a shrinking time horizon. "Old ice" is expected to mount a final resistance in redoubts such as the Wandel Sea. We're seeing the last act of this drama playing out, as illustrated by a synthesis of observations and modeling by Schweiger et al in our "highlight" article for this week, Accelerated sea ice loss in the Wandel Sea points to a change in the Arctic’s Last Ice Area (open access, PDF). In a nutshell: secular change in climate behavior combines with variabilty to dictate a wavering path to "no more old ice," with the date of "done" looming ever closer. It's not possible to improve on a well-executed abstract for a concise summary:
The Arctic Ocean’s Wandel Sea is the easternmost sector of the Last Ice Area, where thick, old sea ice is expected to endure longer than elsewhere. Nevertheless, in August 2020 the area experienced record-low sea ice concentration. Here we use satellite data and sea ice model experiments to determine what caused this record sea ice minimum. In our simulations there was a multi-year sea-ice thinning trend due to climate change. Natural climate variability expressed as wind-forced ice advection and subsequent melt added to this trend. In spring 2020, the Wandel Sea had a mixture of both thin and—unusual for recent years— thick ice, but this thick ice was not sufficiently widespread to prevent the summer sea ice concentration minimum. With continued thinning, more frequent low summer sea ice events are expected. We suggest that the Last Ice Area, an important refuge for ice-dependent species, is less resilient to warming than previously thought.
Physical science of climate change, effects
‘Simpson's Law’ and the Spectral Cancellation of Climate Feedbacks
Jeevanjee et al Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10506744.1 10.1002/essoar.10506744.2
CO2-equivalence metrics for surface albedo change based on the radiative forcing concept: a critical review DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10506744.1 10.1002/essoar.10506744.2 10.1029/2021gl093699
Observations of climate change, effects
Investigating the drivers of the unprecedented Chernobyl Power Plant Wildfire in April 2020 and its effects on 137Cs dispersal
Newman-Thacker & Turnbull Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04902-7
Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets
Madakumbura et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24262-x 10.21203/rs.3.rs-227967/v1
Permafrost changes in the Nanwenghe Wetlands Reserve on the southern slope of the Da Xing’anling?Yile’huli Mountains, Northeast China
He et al Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.06.007
Reconciling human and natural drivers of the tripole pattern of multidecadal summer temperature variations over Eurasia
Hua et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093971
Thaw-driven mass wasting couples slopes with downstream systems, and effects propagate through Arctic drainage networks
Kokelj et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-3059-2021
High Mountain Asian glacier response to climate revealed by multi-temporal satellite observations since the 1960s
Bhattacharya et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24180-y
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change
Huang et al Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351
Rainfall on the Greenland ice sheet: present?day climatology from a high?resolution non?hydrostatic polar regional climate model
Niwano et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092942
Less rain and rainy days—lessons from 45 years of rainfall data (1971–2015) in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Prajapati et al Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03706-w 10.21203/rs.3.rs-167685/v1
Rising risks of late-spring frosts in a changing climate
Lamichhane Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01090-x
Scraping icebergs trigger sea-floor landslides — and the risk is growing
Nature
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/d41586-021-01768-4
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
SC-Earth: A Station-Based Serially Complete Earth Dataset from 1950 to 2019
Tang et al Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0067.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Future changes to high impact weather in the UK
Hanlon et al Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5
Rainfall on the Greenland ice sheet: present?day climatology from a high?resolution non?hydrostatic polar regional climate model
Niwano et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092942
Near-term regional climate change over Bangladesh
Choi et al Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05856-z
Subpolar Gyre–AMOC–Atmosphere Interactions on Multidecadal Timescales in a Version of the Kiel Climate Model
Sun et al Journal of Climate
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0725.1 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4608
Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
Bamunawala et al Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-93221-9
A global perspective on the sub-seasonal clustering of precipitation extremes
Tuel & Martius Romppainen-Martius Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100348 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2050
Climate change projection using statistical downscaling model over Chittagong Division, Bangladesh
Shahriar et al Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
DOI: 10.1007/s00703-021-00817-x
Future changes in wind energy potential over China using RegCM4 under RCP emission scenarios
Wu et al Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.06.005
Using Climate Model Simulations to Constrain Observations
Santer et al Journal of Climate Journal of the American Statistical Association
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0768.1 10.1080/01621459.2020.1851696
Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 Earth system models in simulating global vegetation structure and distribution
Xiang et al Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.06.008
Intercomparison of drift correction alternatives for CMIP5 decadal precipitation
Hossain et al International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7287
Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating historical precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh: a preliminary study
Kamruzzaman et al Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03691-0 10.21203/rs.3.rs-233789/v1
Southeast Indian Subantarctic Mode Water in the CMIP6 coupled models
Qiu et al Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016872
Gross Discrepancies between Observed and Simulated Twentieth-to-Twenty-First-Century Precipitation Trends in Southeastern South America DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016872
Bias?corrections on aridity index simulations of climate models by observational constraints
Yu et al International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7279
A Spatial Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice and Regional Limitations in CMIP6 Historical Simulations
Watts et al Journal of Climate
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0491.1
Evaluation of the Climate Change Impact on the Extreme Rainfall Amounts Using Modified Method of Fragments for Sub?daily Rainfall Disaggregation
Rafatnejad et al International Journal of Climatology
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7280
Cryosphere & climate change
Accelerated sea ice loss in the Wandel Sea points to a change in the Arctic’s Last Ice Area
Schweiger et al Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00197-5
Comment on “Exceptionally high heat flux needed to sustain the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream” by Smith-Johnsen et al. (2020)
Bons et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2251-2021
High Mountain Asian glacier response to climate revealed by multi-temporal satellite observations since the 1960s
Bhattacharya et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24180-y
Indication of high basal melting at the EastGRIP drill site on the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream
Zeising & Humbert Humbert Humbert The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2847 10.5194/tc-2021-37
Thaw-driven mass wasting couples slopes with downstream systems, and effects propagate through Arctic drainage networks
Kokelj et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-3059-2021
Biological albedo reduction on ice sheets, glaciers, and snowfields
Hotaling et al Earth-Science Reviews
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103728 10.31223/x58s3z
Scraping icebergs trigger sea-floor landslides — and the risk is growing
Nature
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/d41586-021-01768-4
Sea level & climate change
Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C
Brown et al Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03130-z
Impact of sea level rise and shoreline changes in the tropical island ecosystem of Andaman and Nicobar region, India
Mageswaran et al Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04895-3 10.21203/rs.3.rs-245124/v1
Revisiting the link between extreme sea levels and climate variability using a spline-based non-stationary extreme value analysis
Rohmer et al Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100352
Projections of global delta land loss from sea?level rise in the 21st century
Nienhuis & Wal Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093368
A Climatology-Based Forecast Tool for Coastal Flooding in the Low Country
Coz et al Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-20-0256.1
Sea Level?Driven Marsh Migration Results in Rapid Net Loss of Carbon
Smith & Kirwan Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092420
Paleoclimate
Evidence for a highly dynamic West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Pliocene
Gohl et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl093103
Ocean acidification
Contrasting drivers and trends of ocean acidification in the subarctic Atlantic
Pérez et al Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-93324-3
Ocean warming and acidification modify top-down and bottom-up control in a tropical seagrass ecosystem
Listiawati & Kurihara Kurihara Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92989-0 10.21203/rs.3.rs-133932/v1
Biology & climate change
Ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests will be compromised above 2? warming
Morán?Ordóñez et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15745
Biogeochemical feedbacks associated with the response of micronutrient recycling by zooplankton to climate change
Richon & Tagliabue Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15789
Ambient climate determines the directional trend of community stability under warming and grazing
Liu et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15786
Interactions between local and global drivers determine long?term trends in boreal forest understorey vegetation
Hedwall et al Global Ecology and Biogeography
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/geb.13324
Global trends in phenotypic plasticity of plants
Stotz et al Ecology Letters
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13827
Vegetation Response to Rising CO2 Amplifies Contrasts in Water Resources Between Global Wet and Dry Land Areas DOI: 10.1111/ele.13827
Disproportionate microbial responses to decadal drainage on a Siberian floodplain
Kwon et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15785
Different response of earlywood vessel features of Fraxinus mandshurica to rapid warming in warm-dry and cold-wet areas DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15785
Cloudiness reduces the bleaching response of coral reefs exposed to heat stress
Gonzalez?Espinosa & Donner Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15676
Widespread regeneration failure in forests of Greater Yellowstone under scenarios of future climate and fire
Rammer et al Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15726
Water availability surpasses warmth in controlling global vegetation trends in recent decade: revealed by satellite time series
Zhang et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0b68
Large variability in response to projected climate and land?use changes among European bumblebee species
Prestele et al Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15780
The collapse of marine forests: drastic reduction in populations of the family Sargassaceae in Madeira Island (NE Atlantic)
Bernal-Ibáñez et al Regional Environmental Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-021-01801-2
Shrub growth in the Alps diverges from air temperature since the 1990s
Francon et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0b67
Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients
Palmquist et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15776
Synergistic effects of insect herbivory and changing climate on plant volatile emissions in the subarctic tundra
Rieksta et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15773
Differences in the ecological impact of climate change and urbanization
Xu et al Urban Climate
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100891
GHG sources & sinks, flux
Atmospheric observations consistent with reported decline in the UK's methane emissions, 2013–2020
Lunt et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-548 10.5194/acp-2021-548-supplement
Long-Term Atmospheric Emissions for the Coal Oil Point Natural Marine Hydrocarbon Seep Field, Offshore California
Leifer et al
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-1234 10.5194/acp-2020-1234-supplement
High-resolution induced polarization imaging of biogeochemical carbon turnover hotspots in a peatland
Katona et al Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-4039-2021
A RCM investigation of the influence of vegetation status and runoff scheme on the summer gross primary production of Tropical Africa
Anwar & Diallo Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03667-0
Particulate organic matter as a functional soil component for persistent soil organic carbon
Witzgall et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24192-8
Limited sink but large storage: biomass dynamics in naturally developing beech (Fagus sylvatica) and oak (Quercus robur, Quercus petraea) forests of northwestern Germany
Meyer et al Journal of Ecology
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13740
Intermittent Surface Renewals and Methane Hotspots in Natural Peatlands
Zorzetto et al Boundary-Layer Meteorology
DOI: 10.1007/s10546-021-00637-x
New radiocarbon constraints on the global cycling of solid?phase extractable dissolved organic carbon
Lewis et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090995
Evaluation of soil carbon dynamics after forest cover change in CMIP6 land models using chronosequences
Boysen et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be1
Nitrogen availability and precipitation variability regulated CO2 fertilization effects on carbon fluxes in an alpine grassland DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be1
Ascription of the differences between Germany and Uganda’s Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry sector greenhouse gas methodologies for inventory improvement
Mugarura et al Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11027-021-09957-2
Conservation with elevated elephant densities sequesters carbon in soils despite losses of woody biomass
Sandhage?Hofmann et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15779
Methane in the Danube Delta: the importance of spatial patterns and diel cycles for atmospheric emission estimates
Canning et al Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-3961-2021 10.5194/bg-2020-353
Sea Level?Driven Marsh Migration Results in Rapid Net Loss of Carbon
Smith & Kirwan Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl092420
First pan-Arctic assessment of dissolved organic carbon in lakes of the permafrost region
Stolpmann et al Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-2020-408 10.5194/bg-18-3917-2021 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8174
CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering
Carbon dioxide removal technologies are not born equal
Strefler et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0a11
CCUS As a second-best choice for China's carbon neutrality: an institutional analysis
Xu & Dai Climate Policy
DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1947766
Roots are key to increasing the mean residence time of organic carbon entering temperate agricultural soils
Poeplau et al Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15787
Suppressing peatland methane production by electron snorkeling through pyrogenic carbon in controlled laboratory incubations
Sun et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24350-y
Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China’s recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge
Chen et al Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0cac
Application of territorial emission factors with open-access data—a territorial LCA case study of land use for livestock production in Wallonia
Ding et al The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
DOI: 10.1007/s11367-021-01949-3
Geoengineering climate
Reversing Sahelian Droughts
Ricke et al Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10506386.1 10.1029/2021gl093129
Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering
Fettweis et al The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021 10.5194/tc-2020-347
Aerosols
Quantification of the aerosol-induced errors in solar irradiance modeling
Blaga et al Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
DOI: 10.1007/s00703-021-00815-z
Decarbonization
The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system
Le Treut et al Energy Policy
pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112423
Climate change communications & cognition
Ten-year panel data confirm generation gap but climate beliefs increase at similar rates across ages
Milfont et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24245-y
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Rising risks of late-spring frosts in a changing climate
Lamichhane Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01090-x
Perceptions and Realities of Hydroclimatic Change Affecting Guyanese Rice Farming
Mahdu et al Climate Risk Management
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100341
The complementarity and determinants of adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: evidence from smallholder farmers in Northwest Ethiopia
Adego & Woldie Climate and Development
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1943296
Hydrology & climate change
Contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment discharge reductions in the Jialing River, a main tributary of the upper Yangtze River, China
Shao et al Theoretical and Applied Climatology
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03682-1
Climate vulnerability of irrigation systems in the Upper Indus Basin: insights from three Karakoram villages in northern Pakistan
Khan et al Climate and Development
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1944839
Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change
Huang et al Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351
A Climatology-Based Forecast Tool for Coastal Flooding in the Low Country
Coz et al Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-20-0256.1
Incorporating stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria framework for planning large-scale Nature-Based Solutions
Ruangpan et al Ambio
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13280-020-01419-4
Climate change & economics
Higher cost of finance exacerbates a climate investment trap in developing economies
Ameli et al Nature Communications
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24305-3
The climate consistency goal and the transformation of global finance
Zamarioli et al Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01083-w
Caught in between: credibility and feasibility of the voluntary carbon market post-2020
Kreibich & Hermwille Climate Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1948384
Green innovation effect of emission trading policy on pilot areas and neighboring areas: An analysis based on the spatial econometric model
Du et al Energy Policy
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112431
A comparative analysis of green financial policy output in OECD countries
Steffen Environmental Research Letters
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0c43
The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system
Le Treut et al Energy Policy
pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112423
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Ranking local climate policy: assessing the mitigation and adaptation activities of 104 German cities
Otto et al Climatic Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03142-9
The Swedish climate policy framework as a means for climate policy integration: an assessment
Matti et al Climate Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2021.1930510
A framework for understanding the key drivers of cities' climate actions in city networks
Mokhles & Davidson Urban Climate
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100902
Governance models for nature-based solutions: Seventeen cases from Germany
Zingraff-Hamed et al Ambio
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13280-020-01412-x
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen
Sipari et al Ambio
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01594-y
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Rethinking the role of law in adapting to climate change
McDonald & McCormack WIREs Climate Change
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.726
Toward a climate mobilities research agenda: Intersectionality, immobility, and policy responses
Cundill et al Global Environmental Change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102315
Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion
Toimil et al Climate Risk Management
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100342
Understanding end-user adoption of an online climate resilience tool
Collini et al Environmental Science & Policy
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.06.022
Other
Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model
Ma et al Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021 10.5194/bg-2020-430
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Taming Gaia 2.0: Earth system law in the ruptured Anthropocene
Kim The Anthropocene Review
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1177/20530196211026721
The power of large?scale community science in addressing anthropogenic change
Alaasam & Ouyang Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15741
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