This week sees the latest installment of the IPCC's occasional reminders to look at the planet's dashboard and think about how it'll be feel to be sitting on the side of the road in a cloud of steam, all hot and sticky because... why? We can hardly claim not to have heard any piercing buzzers or seen any urgently flashing lights for the past few decades of our trip. By now it's becoming fairly clear that the kiddies in the back seat telling us to ignore our ears and eyes were not offering good advice.
IPCC's AR6 Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis (PDF 232MB) is the product of a cooperative human enterprise unmatched in intellectual scale and scope by any other. Contrary to some reports in the popular press, a casual glance at chapter citation reference lists reveals that far more than 234 authors are involved in the fabric of the 3,949 page work. This synthesis might more accurately be thought of as having many thousands of contributing authors. Every claim and assertion in AR6 comes with a citation, and each citation leads to a research publication with its own list of authors. The foundation of evidence supporting the work is unlike any other on the planet; there is literally no other topic than anthropogenic climate change that has brought together so many experts in so many disciplines to create such a broadly comprehensive vehicle for communicating the very best of our understanding to policymakers and— more importantly— members of the public who supply policymakers with impetus and sensible instructions.
We don't have the means right now to count the total citations and total contributing authorship of AR6. But some notion of the pyramid supporting AR6 can be gleaned from our own local effort. This particular edition of New Research features 109 newly published research articles, involving 537 contributing authors. Claims and assertions in this small collection derive from and are supported by 3,637 cited earlier research works, these in their own turn produced by some 16,914 authors. Cited papers of course are similarly supported in a fabric of prior effort, findings and publications. Drillling down another level would certainly produce eye-popping results for even a jaded eye. Each work in this geometrically explosive collection is connected by a continuum of understanding and integration with earlier and later investigations. Numbers like these are just one indicator of the tragicomic loneliness and isolation of climate science deniers, when it comes to actually talking about science. So, when we hear somebody dismissing AR6 as agenda driven make believe, we may safely conclude that we're hearing simulated or real ignorance.
Physical science of climate change, effects
Influence of Latitude and Moisture Effects on the Barotropic Instability of an Idealized ITCZ
Bembenek et al. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
10.1175/jas-d-20-0346.1
Abrupt climate changes and the astronomical theory
Rousseau et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2021-103
Observations of climate change, effects
The Alaskan summer 2019 extreme heat event: The role of anthropogenic forcing, and projections of the increasing risk of occurrence
Weidman et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002163
Interdecadal variations of persistent extreme heat events in eastern China under global warming
Zang et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access 10.1007/s00704-021-03723-9
Reversal nature in rainfall pattern over the Indian heavy and low rainfall zones in the recent era
Barde et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-021-03740-8
Explaining recent trends in extreme precipitation in the Southwestern Alps by changes in atmospheric influences
Blanchet et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100356
Data-Driven Analysis of Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Trends in Temperature Extremes and Human Comfort Indicators
Odnoletkova & Patzek Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
10.1175/jamc-d-20-0273.1
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Elevation-dependent Response of Snow Phenology to Climate Change from a Remote Sensing Perspective: A case survey in the Central Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2019
Wang et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7330
Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Boers Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4
(provisional link) Four years of global carbon cycle observed from OCO-2 version 9 and in situ data, and comparison to OCO-2 v7
Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting: a comment
McKitrick Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-021-05913-7
A New k-Distribution Scheme for Clear-Sky Radiative Transfer Calculations in Earth’s Atmosphere. Part II: Solar (Shortwave) Heating due to H2O and CO2
Chou et al. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jas-d-20-0278.1
A synergic study on estimating surface downward shortwave radiation from satellite data
Wang et al. Remote Sensing of Environment
10.1016/j.rse.2021.112639
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world
Lee et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-21-11889-2021
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run
Beaumet et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021
Extreme wind projections over Europe from the Euro-CORDEX regional climate models
Outten & Sobolowski Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100363
Reduced High-Latitude Land Seasonality in Climates with Very High Carbon Dioxide
Henry & Vallis Vallis Journal of Climate
Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0131.1
Severe Convective Wind Environments and Future Projected Changes in Australia
Brown & Dowdy Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd034633
First application of artificial neural networks to estimate 21st century Greenland ice sheet surface melt
Sellevold & Vizcaino Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl092449
The response of daily and sub-daily extreme precipitations to changes in surface and dew point temperatures
Bello et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd034972
Does the winter storm-related wind gust intensity in Germany increase under warming climate? – A high-resolution assessment
Jung & Schindler Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100360
Weakened Antarctic Dipole under global warming in CMIP6 models
Li et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094863
Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States
Marvel et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002019
Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved ocean surface albedo computational scheme: Structure and Performance
Wei et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
10.1029/2020jc016958
Sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes in regional climate model: precipitation extremes over India
Mishra & Dubey Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03714-w
Added value of convection-permitting simulations for understanding future urban humidity extremes: Case studies for Berlin
Langendijk et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100367
Evaluating boreal summer circulation patterns of CMIP6 climate models over the Asian region
Bu et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access 10.1007/s00382-021-05914-6
The convective-to-total precipitation ratio and the “drizzling” bias in climate models
Chen et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2020jd034198
Evaluation of the CAM6 Climate Model Using Cloud Observations at McMurdo Station, Antarctica
Yip et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd034653
Simulating the impact of global reservoir expansion on the present-day climate
Vanderkelen et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2020jd034485
Evidence of Strong Flux Underestimation by Bulk Parametrizations During Drifting and Blowing Snow
Sigmund et al. Boundary-Layer Meteorology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10546-021-00653-x
Cryosphere & climate change
Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures
Debolskiy et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac12f3
First application of artificial neural networks to estimate 21st century Greenland ice sheet surface melt
Sellevold & Vizcaino Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl092449
Elevation-dependent Response of Snow Phenology to Climate Change from a Remote Sensing Perspective: A case survey in the Central Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2019
Wang et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7330
Resolving GIA in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica
Wan et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-232
(provisional link) Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Estimation Based on CryoSat-2 Radar Altimeter and Sentinel-1 Dual-Polarized SAR
Evidence of Strong Flux Underestimation by Bulk Parametrizations During Drifting and Blowing Snow
Sigmund et al. Boundary-Layer Meteorology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10546-021-00653-x
Biology & climate change
A simple explanation for declining temperature sensitivity with warming
Wolkovich et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1101/2021.01.12.426288
An Arctic strait of two halves: The changing dynamics of nutrient uptake and limitation across the Fram Strait
Tuerena et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gb006961
Historical warming consistently decreased size, dispersal and speciation rate of fish
Avaria-Llautureo et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-021-01123-5
Critical transitions and ecological resilience of large marine ecosystems in the Northwestern Pacific in response to global warming
Ma et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15815
Continent-wide synthesis of the long-term population dynamics of quaking aspen in the face of accelerating human impacts
Refsland & Cushman Oecologia
10.1007/s00442-021-05013-7
Warming menaces high-altitude Himalayan birch forests: Evidence from cambial phenology and wood anatomy
Li et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108577
Effects of future climate change on birch abundance and their pollen load
Rojo et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15824
Extreme thermal conditions in sea turtle nests jeopardize reproductive output
Turkozan et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-021-03153-6
Projected impacts of climate and land use changes on the habitat of Atlantic Forest plants in Brazil
Leão et al. Global Ecology and Biogeography
Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13365
Multi-year drought exacerbates long-term effects of climate on an invasive ant species
Couper et al. Ecology
Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.3476
Climate-driven abrupt changes in plant communities of desert and semi-desert region
Bagheri et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03720-y
GHG sources & sinks, flux
Global consistency in response of terrestrial ecosystem respiration to temperature
Zhang et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108576
Past and Future Climate Variability Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Budget using the MPI Grand Ensemble
Loughran et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10506639.1
Unrecognized threat to global soil carbon by a widespread invasive species
O’Bryan et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15769
(provisional link) Emissions of tetrafluoromethane (CF4) and hexafluoroethane (C2F6) from East Asia: 2008 to 2019
10.1029/2021JD034888
Differences in the temperature dependence of wetland CO2 and CH4 emissions vary with water table depth
Chen et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-021-01108-4
Temporal variability and driving factors of the carbonate system in the Aransas Ship Channel, TX, USA: a time series study
McCutcheon et al. Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-18-4571-2021
Variability of North Atlantic CO2 fluxes for the 2000–2017 period estimated from atmospheric inverse analyses
Chen et al. Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-18-4549-2021
(provisional link) Using carbon-14 and carbon-13 measurements for source attribution of atmospheric methane in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region
Adding organic matter to restore wetland soils may increase methane generation and is not needed for hydric soil development
Scott et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-182
Review Article: Permafrost Trapped Natural Gas in Svalbard, Norway
Birchall et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-226
Diet-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazilian State Capital Cities
Aguiar et al. Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2021.07.028
Drought-induced salinity enhancement weakens mangrove greenhouse gas cycling
Zhu et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
10.1029/2021jg006416
Simulation of soil carbon changes due to conventional systems in the semi-arid region of Brazil: adaptation and validation of the century model
de Araújo Neto et al. Carbon Management
10.1080/17583004.2021.1962978
Enhancement of ecosystem carbon uptake in a dry shrubland under moderate warming: the role of nitrogen-driven changes in plant morphology
Liberati et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.15823
Improved modelling of soil NO x emissions in a high temperature agricultural region: role of background emissions on NO 2 trend over the US
Chavdarov JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
Open Access pdf 10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00048
Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Limits Vegetation Capacity to Sequester Soil Carbon in Coastal Wetlands: a Study Case in South-Eastern Australia
Sandi et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2020ef001901
(provisional link) Errors and uncertainties associated with the use of unconventional activity data for estimating CO 2 emissions: the case for traffic emissions in Japan
10.1088/1748-9326/ac109d
Long-term trajectories of the C footprint of N fertilization in Mediterranean agriculture (Spain, 1860–2018)
Aguilera et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac17b7
Historical Increases in Land-Derived Nutrient Inputs May Alleviate Effects of a Changing Physical Climate on the Oceanic Carbon Cycle
Lacroix et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15822
Closing the methane gap in US oil and natural gas production emissions inventories
Rutherford et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-25017-4
(provisional link) Limitations of the Q10 coefficient for quantifying temperature sensitivity of anaerobic organic matter decomposition:a modeling based assessment
10.1029/2021JG006264
Quantitative study of life cycle carbon emissions from 7 timber buildings in China
Yang et al. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
10.1007/s11367-021-01960-8
(provisional link) Fossil fuel CO2 emissions over metropolitan areas from space: A multi-model analysis of OCO-2 data over Lahore, Pakistan
Sulphur constraints on the carbon cycle of a blanket bog peatland
Boothroyd et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
10.1029/2021jg006435
Enhancement of ecosystem carbon uptake in a dry shrubland under moderate warming: the role of nitrogen-driven changes in plant morphology
Liberati et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.15823
Carbon sequestration related to soil physical and chemical properties in the high Arctic
Jílková et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
10.1029/2020gb006877
CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering
‘Carbon’ in forest carbon projects: Evidence from India
Aggarwal Climate and Development Land Use Policy Forest Policy and Economics
10.1080/17565529.2021.1956873
Differential response of soil CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions to edaphic properties and microbial attributes following afforestation in central China
Chen et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15826
Pyrogenic conversion of rice straw and wood to biochar increases aromaticity and carbon accumulation in soil
Benbi & Brar Carbon Management
10.1080/17583004.2021.1962409
Analysis of biofuel production in Ecuador from the perspective of the water-food-energy nexus
Terneus Páez & Viteri Salazar Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112496
Liquid metal with solvents for CO2 capture
Zhang et al. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Green Chemistry
10.1002/ghg.2109
(provisional link) Mechanochemical redox synthesis of interstitial mesoporous CoxFe1-xOy catalyst for CO2 hydrogenation
10.1002/ghg.2108
Decarbonization
An integrated approach to evaluating the coupling coordination degree between low-carbon development and air quality in Chinese cities
Tian-Le et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.08.001
Why can Germany reduce production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions? A decomposition analysis
Li et al. Carbon Management
10.1080/17583004.2021.1937322
Aerosols
Estimating radiative forcing efficiency of dust aerosol based on direct satellite observations: case studies over the Sahara and Taklimakan Desert
Tian et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-21-11669-2021
Climate change communications & cognition
Threshold, budget and deadline: beyond the discourse of climate scarcity and control
Asayama Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03185-y
A framework for building climate storylines based on downward counterfactuals: the case of the European Union Solidarity Fund
Ciullo et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100349
Experiencing climate change: revisiting the role of local weather in affecting climate change awareness and related policy preferences
Gärtner & Schoen Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03176-z
Teaching a Social Science Course on Climate Change: Suggestions for Active Learning
Duram Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0035.1
Changing Climate, Changing Discourse: Analyzing Reporting of Climate Change and Economic Development in the U.S. Virgin Islands
Rudge Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100350
Public opinion on climate change in the USA: to what extent can it be nudged by questionnaire design features?
Chen et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-021-03194-x
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A generic risk assessment framework to evaluate historical and future climate-induced risk for rainfed corn and soybean yield in the U.S. Midwest
Zhou et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100369
Assessing changes in climate suitability and yields of maize and sorghum crops over Kenya in the twenty-first century
Mumo et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03718-6
Goat as the ideal climate-resilient animal model in tropical environment: revisiting advantages over other livestock species
Nair et al. International Journal of Biometeorology
10.1007/s00484-021-02179-w
Farmers’ Perception, Adaptation to Groundwater Salinity, and Climate Change Vulnerability: Insights from North India
Mitra et al. Weather, Climate, and Society
10.1175/wcas-d-20-0135.1
Changes in agricultural climate in South-Eastern England from 1892 to 2016 and differences in cereal and permanent grassland yield
Addy et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108560
Simulation of soil carbon changes due to conventional systems in the semi-arid region of Brazil: adaptation and validation of the century model
de Araújo Neto et al. Carbon Management
10.1080/17583004.2021.1962978
Improved modelling of soil NO x emissions in a high temperature agricultural region: role of background emissions on NO 2 trend over the US
Chavdarov JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES
Open Access pdf 10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00048
Effects of agricultural management regimes on rotating cropland ecosystem respiration and its components in Southeast China
Chen et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108580
Long-term trajectories of the C footprint of N fertilization in Mediterranean agriculture (Spain, 1860–2018)
Aguilera et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac17b7
Albedo-induced global warming impact of Conservation Reserve Program grasslands converted to annual and perennial bioenergy crops
Abraha et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1815
Carbon myopia: the urgent need for integrated social, economic and environmental action in the livestock sector
Harrison et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15816
Navigating capitalist expansion and climate change in pastoral social-ecological systems: impacts, vulnerability and decision-making
Postigo Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
10.1016/j.cosust.2021.07.002
Hydrology & climate change
Peak Runoff Timing is Linked to Global Warming Trajectories
Xu et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002083
SDG implications of water-energy system transitions in India, for NDC, 2 °C, and well below 2 °C scenarios
Vishwanathan et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac08bf
Impacts of climate and land use change on hydrodynamics and sediment transport regime of the Ganga River Basin
Anand et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-021-01806-x
Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States
Marvel et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002019
Climate change economics
Methodology to analyse the impact of an emissions trading system in Chile
Benavides et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2021.1954869
Green finance and energy policy: Obstacles, opportunities, and options
Chang et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112497
Climate and monetary policy: do temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures?
Mukherjee & Ouattara Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03149-2
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Effective climate policy needs non-combustion uses for hydrocarbons
Konrad & Lommerud Lommerud Energy Policy SSRN Electronic Journal
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112446
Energy efficiency and the direct and indirect effects of energy audits and implementation support programmes in Germany
Schubert et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112486
Policy mixes and the policy learning process of energy transitions: Insights from the feed-in tariff policy and urban community solar in Hong Kong
Mah et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112214
Methodology to analyse the impact of an emissions trading system in Chile
Benavides et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2021.1954869
Policy innovation in low carbon pilot cities: lessons learned from China
Song et al. Urban Climate
10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100936
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Actions and leverage points for ecosystem-based adaptation pathways in the Alps
Bruley et al. Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2021.07.023
Adaptive governance and community resilience to cyclones in coastal Bangladesh: Addressing the problem of fit, social learning, and institutional collaboration
Choudhury et al. Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2021.08.007
Climate change impacts on human health
Hospital healthcare costs attributable to heat and future estimations in the context of climate change in Perth, Western Australia
Tong et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.07.008
Climate change impacts on human culture
(provisional link) Population pattern and exposure under sea level rise: Low elevation coastal zone in the Yangtze River Delta, 1990-2100
10.1016/j.crm.2021.100348
Other Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change
Jenouvrier et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.15806
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
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The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 12 August, 2021
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