There's little point in trying to best this excellent article describing the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics by Ars Technica authors Jennifer Ouelette and John Timmer, each having a gift for concisely on-target, accessible science journalism. Here at New Research we'll punt and quote the The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences press release, then follow up with a sampling of open-access papers authored by the prize recipients. Ouellette and Timmer's article supplies a lot of missing context and is well worth a visit.
The 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics is awarded to Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann & Giorgio Parisi. Here's why, according to the Nobel Committee for Physics:
Complex systems are characterised by randomness and disorder and are difficult to understand. This year’s Prize recognises new methods for describing them and predicting their long-term behaviour.
One complex system of vital importance to humankind is Earth’s climate. Syukuro Manabe demonstrated how increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere lead to increased temperatures at the surface of the Earth. In the 1960s, he led the development of physical models of the Earth’s climate and was the first person to explore the interaction between radiation balance and the vertical transport of air masses. His work laid the foundation for the development of current climate models.
About ten years later, Klaus Hasselmann created a model that links together weather and climate, thus answering the question of why climate models can be reliable despite weather being changeable and chaotic. He also developed methods for identifying specific signals, fingerprints, that both natural phenomena and human activities imprint in the climate. His methods have been used to prove that the increased temperature in the atmosphere is due to human emissions of carbon dioxide.
Around 1980, Giorgio Parisi discovered hidden patterns in disordered complex materials. His discoveries are among the most important contributions to the theory of complex systems. They make it possible to understand and describe many different and apparently entirely random materials and phenomena, not only in physics but also in other, very different areas, such as mathematics, biology, neuroscience and machine learning.
“The discoveries being recognised this year demonstrate that our knowledge about the climate rests on a solid scientific foundation, based on a rigorous analysis of observations. This year’s Laureates have all contributed to us gaining deeper insight into the properties and evolution of complex physical systems,” says Thors Hans Hansson, chair of the Nobel Committee for Physics.
Some papers by the recipients, from the critical periods mentioned by the committee (open access):
Manabe:
Simulated climatology of a general circulation model with a hydrologic cycle
Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a convective adjustment
The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the climate of a General Circulation Model
Hasselmann:
Stochastic climate models part I. Theory
Multi-pattern fingerprint method for detection and attribution of climate change
Parisi:
Infinite Number of Order Parameters for Spin-Glasses
Order Parameter for Spin-Glasses
The order parameter for spin glasses: a function on the interval 0-1
Observations of climate change, effects
Warming Climate Shortens Ice Durations and Alters Freeze and Breakup Patterns in Swedish Water Bodies
Hallerbäck et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-304
Variations in Summer Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea
Yao & Wang Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
10.1029/2021jc017792
Phenological trends in the pre- and post-breeding migration of long-distance migratory birds
Lawrence et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15916
Trends of freezing period and its main cause on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2018
Zhao et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access 10.1007/s00704-021-03798-4
A Secular Shift of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Its Relation to Western Pacific Ocean Warming
Huang et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl095400
Climate signatures on lake and wetland size distributions in arctic deltas
Vulis et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10507143.1
Distinct tropospheric and stratospheric mechanisms linking historical Barents-Kara sea-ice loss and late winter Eurasian temperature variability
Xu et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl095262
Climate driven trends in London's urban heat island intensity reconstructed over 70 years using a generalized additive model
Bassett et al. Urban Climate
10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100990
Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing of Multi-decadal to Centennial Scale Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea
Goodkin et al. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
10.1029/2021pa004233
Winter daytime warming and shift in summer monsoon increase plant cover and net CO2 uptake in a central Tibetan alpine steppe ecosystem
Nieberding et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10507017.1
Decreasing subseasonal temperature variability in the northern extratropics attributed to human influence
Blackport et al. Nature Geoscience
10.1038/s41561-021-00826-w
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
(provisional link) NORA3: A Nonhydrostatic High-Resolution Hindcast of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea
10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0029.1
How to determine the statistical significance of trends in seasonal records: application to Antarctic temperatures
Bunde et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-021-05974-8
(provisional link) Insights from 20 years of temperature parallel measurements in Mauritius around the turn of the 20th Century
Earth's Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine
Goode et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021gl094888
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations
Boulange et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc
Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperatures in China based on CMIP6 models
Hu & Sun International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7402
Explaining Globally Inhomogeneous Future Changes in Monsoons Using Simple Moist Energy Diagnostics
Bombardi & Boos Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-20-1012.1
Evaluating the impact of climate change on extreme temperature and precipitation events over the Kashmir Himalaya
Ahsan et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-021-05984-6
(provisional link) Future Changes in δ13C of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in the Ocean
10.1029/2001GB001817
Impact of global warming on meteorological drought: a case study of the Songliao Plain, China
Ari et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03775-x
Projected Changes in Precipitation Recycling over the Tibetan Plateau Based on a Global and Regional Climate Model
Zhang & Gao Journal of Hydrometeorology
10.1175/jhm-d-21-0011.1
Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
(provisional link) Evaluation Framework for Subdaily Rainfall Extremes Simulated by Regional Climate Models
10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0004.1
Probabilistic Evaluation of Drought in CMIP6 Simulations
Papalexiou et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002150
Evaluation of the performance of the non-hydrostatic RegCM4 (RegCM4-NH) over Southeastern China
Nguyen-Xuan et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-021-05969-5
Robust evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many ensemble members are needed?
Lee et al. Geophysical Research Letters
Open Access 10.1029/2021gl095041
Evaluation of onset, cessation and seasonal precipitation of the Southeast Asia rainy season in CMIP5 regional climate models and HighResMIP global climate models
Hariadi et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7404
Quantifying the rarity of extreme multi-decadal trends: how unusual was the late twentieth century trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation?
Eade et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-021-05978-4
Biases Beyond the Mean in CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation: A global Investigation
Abdelmoaty et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002196
Evaluation of CMIP6 HighResMIP models in simulating precipitation over Central Asia
Li et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.009
Cryosphere & climate change
Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperatures in China based on CMIP6 models
Hu & Sun International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7402
Mechanisms of Regional Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic
Dörr et al. Journal of Climate
10.1175/jcli-d-21-0149.1
Warming Climate Shortens Ice Durations and Alters Freeze and Breakup Patterns in Swedish Water Bodies
Hallerbäck et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-304
Glaciological setting of the Queen Mary and Knox coasts, East Antarctica, over the past 60 years, and implied dynamic stability of the Shackleton system
Thompson et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-265
Derivation of bedrock topography measurement requirements for the reduction of uncertainty in ice sheet model projections of Thwaites Glacier
Castleman et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-274
Emergent biogeochemical risks from Arctic permafrost degradation
Miner et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-021-01162-y
Ice loss in the Pyrenees
Simpkins Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-021-01179-3
Deriving Antarctic Sea-Ice Thickness from Satellite Altimetry and Estimating Consistency for NASA's ICESat/ICESat-2 Missions
Xu et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl093425
Sea level & climate change
Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica
Hill et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-120
Paleoclimate
Mechanisms of the Early 20th Century Warming in the Arctic
Bokuchava & Semenov Earth-Science Reviews
10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103820
Global wet/dry patterns and mechanisms since the Last Glacial Maximum: a key to future projection
Li et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2020ef001907
An ensemble reconstruction of global monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration 1000–1849
Samakinwa et al. Scientific Data
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-021-01043-1
Drivers of change of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, between 1995 and 2015
Santos et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl093102
Roles of insolation forcing and CO2 forcing on Late Pleistocene seasonal sea surface temperatures
Lee et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-26051-y
Biology & climate change
Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming
Thompson et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002048
Decadal dead wood biomass dynamics of coterminous US forests
Woodall et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac29e8
(provisional link) Trends in climatically-driven extreme growth reductions of Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris in Central Europe
Stark physical and biogeochemical differences and implications for ecosystem stressors in the Northeast Pacific coastal ocean
Dosser et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
10.1029/2020jc017033
Phenological trends in the pre- and post-breeding migration of long-distance migratory birds
Lawrence et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15916
Mobilization of soil phosphate after eight years of warming is linked to plant phosphorus-acquisition strategies in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Zhou et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15914
Will borealization of Arctic tundra herbivore communities be driven by climate warming or vegetation change?
Burrows Processes of Vegetation Change Data analysis in vegetation ecology
Open Access 10.1007/978-94-011-3058-5_13
Skeletal growth response of Porites coral to long-term ocean warming and acidification in the South China Sea
Kang et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
10.1029/2021jg006423
Impacts of global change on peak vegetation growth and its timing in terrestrial ecosystems of the continental US
Liu et al. Global and Planetary Change
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103657
Elucidating gene expression adaptation of phylogenetically divergent coral holobionts under heat stress
Avila-Magaña et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-25950-4
Decreased growth of wild soil microbes after fifteen years of transplant-induced warming in a montane meadow
Purcell et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15911
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
European Carbon Uptake has not Benefited from Vegetation Greening
Liu et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094870
On the contribution of global aviation to the CO2 radiative forcing of climat
Boucher et al. Atmospheric Environment
Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118762
Large tree mortality leads to major aboveground biomass decline in a tropical forest reserve
San-José et al. Oecologia
10.1007/s00442-021-05048-w
(provisional link) A replication study on coral δ11B and B/Ca and their variation in modern and fossil Porites: implications for coral calcifying fluid chemistry and seawater pH changes over the last millennium
10.1002/25724525.just-accepted
Quantifying CO2 emissions from a thermal power plant based on CO2 column measurements by portable Fourier transform spectrometers
Ohyama et al. Remote Sensing of Environment
10.1016/j.rse.2021.112714
Diverse sediment microbiota shape methane emission temperature sensitivity in Arctic lakes
Emerson et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1101/2020.02.08.934661
Observed Regional Fluxes to Constrain Modeled Estimates of the Ocean Carbon Sink
Fay & McKinley McKinley Geophysical Research Letters
10.1002/essoar.10507690.1
Long-term (64-years) annual burning lessened soil organic carbon and nitrogen content in a humid subtropical grassland
Abdalla et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15918
Gaps in Network Infrastructure limit our understanding of biogenic methane emissions in the United States
Malone et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-256
Evaluation of forest carbon uptake in South Korea using the national flux tower network, remote sensing, and data-driven technology
Cho et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108653
Examining the Role of Environmental Memory in the Predictability of Carbon and Water Fluxes Across Australian Ecosystems
Cranko Page et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-254
Methane emissions in Kuwait: Plume Identification, Isotopic Characterisation and Inventory Verification
Al-Shalan et al. Atmospheric Environment
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118763
Temporal trends in methane emissions from a small eutrophic reservoir: the key role of a spring burst
Waldo et al. Biogeosciences
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-18-5291-2021
Enhancing research and monitoring of carbon pools and land-to-atmosphere greenhouse gases exchange in developing countries
Kim et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-237
CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering
Lessons captured from 50 years of CCS projects
Loria & Bright The Electricity Journal
10.1016/j.tej.2021.106998
A techno-economic assessment of carbon-sequestration tax incentives in the U.S. power sector
Anderson et al. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
Open Access 10.1016/j.ijggc.2021.103450
Seeking natural analogs to fast-forward the assessment of marine CO2 removal
Bach & Boyd Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
10.1073/pnas.2106147118
Biomass Increment and Carbon Sequestration in Hedgerow-grown Trees
Van Den Berge et al. Dendrochronologia
10.1016/j.dendro.2021.125894
The potential for enhancing soil carbon levels through the use of organic soil amendments in Queensland, Australia
Biala et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-021-01813-y
Decarbonization
Efficient pathways to zero-carbon energy use by water supply utilities: an example from London, UK
Majid et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2931
The role of high-socioeconomic-status people in locking in or rapidly reducing energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions
Nielsen et al. Nature Energy
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-021-00900-y
Geoengineering climate Aerosols
Land cover change in low-warming scenarios may enhance the climate role of secondary organic aerosols
Lund et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac269a
The long-term transport and radiative impacts of the 2017 British Columbia pyrocumulonimbus smoke aerosols in the stratosphere
Das et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-21-12069-2021
Climate change communications & cognition
Social bots’ role in climate change discussions on Twitter: Measuring standpoints, topics, and interaction strategies
CHEN et al. Advances in Climate Change Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.011
Anxiety, Worry, and Grief in a Time of Environmental and Climate Crisis: A Narrative Review
Ojala et al. Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Open Access 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-022716
Beliefs and Networks: Mapping the Indian Climate Policy Discourse Surrounding the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015
Swarnakar et al. Environmental Communication
10.1080/17524032.2021.1973528
I Think, Therefore I Act: The Influence of Critical Reasoning Ability on Trust and Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Cohen et al. Risk Analysis
Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.13833
Social Perception of Systemic Risks
Schweizer et al. Risk Analysis
Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.13831
A matter of time … consideration of future consequences and temporal distance contribute to the ideology gap in climate change scepticism
Ve?kalov et al. Journal of Environmental Psychology
10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101703
Risk communication nudges and flood insurance demand
Robinson et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100366
Engaging Transformation: Using Seasonal Rounds to Anticipate Climate Change
Kassam et al. Human Ecology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10745-021-00269-2
(provisional link) Do economic conditions affect climate change beliefs and support for climate action? Evidence from the US in the wake of the Great Recession
10.2139/ssrn.3631339
Climate change in rural Pakistan: evidence and experiences from a people-centered perspective
Ajani & van der Geest Sustainability Science
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-021-01036-4
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
(provisional link) Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change
Climate change in Brazil: future scenarios classified by Thornthwaite (1948)
de Lima et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03803-w
Changes in the environment from perspectives of small-scale farmers in remote Vietnam
Nguyen-Anh et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-021-01835-6
Long-term (64-years) annual burning lessened soil organic carbon and nitrogen content in a humid subtropical grassland
Abdalla et al. Global Change Biology
10.1111/gcb.15918
Implications of changing cropping pattern to low water demand plants due to climate change: evidence from Iran
Mikhak et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-021-01847-6
Adaptation strategies and land productivity of banana farmers under climate change in China
Zhu et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100368
Leveraging communities’ network strengths to support climate change adaptation information-sharing: a study with coffee farmers in Risaralda, Colombia
Eise et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-021-03206-w
Hydrology & climate change
Reducing Climate Change Induced Flood at the Cost of Hydropower in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin
Yun et al. Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl094243
Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations
Boulange et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27cc
Counterbalancing influences of aerosols and greenhouse gases on atmospheric rivers
Baek & Lora Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-021-01166-8
A parametric multivariate drought index for drought monitoring and assessment under climate change
Xu et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108657
Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower
Almeida et al. Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102383
Climate change economics
Economic disparity among generations under the Paris Agreement
Yang & Suh Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-25520-8
Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe
García-León et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-021-26050-z
Accelerating the speed and scale of climate finance in the post-pandemic context
Hourcade et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2021.1977599
The Economic and Climate Value of Flexibility in Green Energy Markets
Abrell et al. Environmental and Resource Economics SSRN Electronic Journal SSRN Electronic Journal
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-021-00605-6
The climate economic effect of technology spillover
Huang & Lv Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112614
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Beliefs and Networks: Mapping the Indian Climate Policy Discourse Surrounding the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015
Swarnakar et al. Environmental Communication
10.1080/17524032.2021.1973528
Coal mining and policy responses: are externalities appropriately addressed? A meta-analysis
Silvia et al. Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.013
Production and emissions reduction decisions considering the differentiated carbon tax regulation across new and remanufactured products and consumer preference
Wang & Wang Urban Climate
10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100992
Building institutional capacity for addressing climate and sustainable development goals: achieving energy efficiency in India
Malhotra et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2021.1984195
Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets
Wills et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2021.1981212
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Situating ‘migration as adaptation’ discourse and appraising its relevance to Senegal’s development sector
Lietaer & Durand-Delacre Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.008
Risk Amplification and Attenuation as Communication Strategies in Climate Adaptation in Urban Areas
Dow & Tuler Risk Analysis
10.1111/risa.13819
Situated adaptation: Tackling the production of vulnerability through transformative action in Sri Lanka’s Dry Zone
Quealy & Yates Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102374
Climate change impacts on human health
Assessing current and future heat risk in Dublin city, Ireland
Paranunzio et al. Urban Climate
Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100983
Changes in compound hot and dry day and population exposure across China under climate change
Feng et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7399
Global urban population exposure to extreme heat
Tuholske et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2024792118
(provisional link) Estimated Mortality and Morbidity Attributable to Smoke Plumes in the United States: Not Just a Western US Problem
10.1029/2021GH000457
Deforestation and climate change are projected to increase heat stress risk in the Brazilian Amazon
Alves de Oliveira et al. Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-021-00275-8
Climate change impacts on human culture
Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower
Almeida et al. Global Environmental Change
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102383
Advancing the evidence base of future warming impacts on human mobility in African drylands
Thalheimer et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2020ef001958
Other
Socio-economic and climatic changes lead to contrasting global urban vegetation trends
Zhang et al. Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102385
Structuring climate service co-creation using a business model approach
Rubio?Martin et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002181
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Protected-area targets could be undermined by climate change-driven shifts in ecoregions and biomes
Dobrowski et al. Communications Earth & Environment
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-021-00270-z
(provisional link) Climate change, natural calamities and the triple burden of disease
10.1038/s41558-021-01164-w
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