2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #45
Story of the Week
What the tiny remaining 1.5C carbon budget means for climate policy
The latest estimates from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) show that total worldwide CO2 emissions in 2022 have reached near-record levels.
The GCP’s estimates put the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C – specifically, the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5C of warming – at 380bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2). At the current rate of emissions, this budget would be blown in just nine years.
While that is a disconcertingly short amount of time, the budget for 1.5C may actually be even tighter.
Combining the latest insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with the GCP’s data, we estimate that the remaining 1.5C carbon budget could be just 260GtCO2 – around 120GtCO2 smaller. If emissions continued at current levels, this budget would run out in around six and half years.
However, reducing the remaining carbon budget to a single number means that many of the factors and uncertainties involved in calculating it – and their implications for decision-making – are missed.
With the immense efforts of the GCP, we know that there is still no sign of the sustained fall in global CO2 emissions needed to meet the Paris Agreement warming limits.
Cutting global CO2 emissions to zero by 2050, in line with limiting warming to 1.5C, would require them to fall by about 1.4GtCO2 every year, comparable to the drop in 2020 as a result of Covid-19 lockdowns around the world, but this time driven by a long-term, structural change of the economy.
This highlights that the scale of the challenge is immense, no matter the precise figure of the rapidly shrinking carbon budget.
Click here to access the entire article as originally posted on Carbon Brief.
What the tiny remaining 1.5C carbon budget means for climate policy, Guest Post by Piers Forster, Debbie Rosen, Robin Lamboll & Joeri Rogelj, Carbon Brief, Nov 11, 2022
Links posted on Facebook
Sun, Nov 6, 2022
Mon, Nov 7, 2022
- Explainer: What the latest IPCC science says about climate change by Gloria Dickie, Reuters, Nov 6, 2022
- COP27: Climate anxiety is rising - it might be a good thing by Georgina Rannard, Science, BBC News, Nov 5, 2022
- World faces ‘terminal’ loss of Arctic sea ice during summers, report warns by Oliver Milman, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 7, 2022
- Loss and damage: Fight over human harm, huge climate costs by Seth Borenstein, AP News, Nov 7, 2022
Tue, Nov 8, 2022
- Huge glacier melt and fast rising seas amid hottest eight years on record – WMO by Emily Beament, PA/Belfast Telegraph, Nov 7, 2022
- We’re on a ‘highway to climate hell,’ UN chief Guterres says, calling for a global phase-out of coal by Anmar Frangoul, CNBC, Nov 7, 2022
- Developing countries ‘will need $2tn a year in climate funding by 2030’ by Fiona Harvey, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 7, 2022
- ‘Toxic cover-up’: UN blasts oil majors’ fake net zero pledges by Joe Lo, Climate Home News, Nov 8, 2022
Wed, Nov 9, 2022
- Climate finance and human rights fears: what happened on day two of Cop27? by Staff, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 8, 2022
- A climate change report card for the world, Analysis by Sarah Kaplan, Climate & Environment, Washington Post, Nov 7, 2022
- SkS Analogy 9 - The greenhouse effect is a stack of blankets by Evan & jg, Skeptical Science, Nov 8, 2022
- The Paris Agreement Is Working … for Now by Robinson Meyer, Science, The Atlantic Magazine, Nov 9, 2022
Thu, Nov 10, 2022
- Oil and gas greenhouse emissions ‘three times higher’ than producers claim by Fiona Harvey, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 9, 2022
- ‘Significant’ moves on climate disaster funds lift Cop27 hopes by Damian Carrington, Environment, The Guardian, Nov 9, 2022
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week#45 2022 by Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Skeptical Science, Nov 10, 2022
- There’s one big subject our leaders at Cop27 won’t touch: livestock farming, Opinion by George Monbiot, Comment is Free, The Guardian, Nov 9, 2022
Fri, Nov 11, 2022
- With Lula Back, Can Brazil Turn the Tide on Amazon Destruction?, Analysis by Jonathan Watts, Yale Environment 360, Nov 9, 2022
- These Election Results Offer Clues about What’s Next for Climate Politics by Adam Aton & Scott Waldman, E&E News/Scientific American, Nov 9, 2022
- Biden Tells Skeptical UN Summit US Is ‘Unwavering’ on Climate Aid by Jennifer A Dlouhy & Justin Sink, Bloomberg Green, Nov 11, 2022
- Twitter's climate vigilantes by Emily Atkins, Heated, Nov 11, 2022
Sat, Nov 12, 2022
- Analysis: Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels hit record high in 2022 by Dr Zeke Hausfather & Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, Carbon Brief, Nov 11, 2022
- Frustration Simmers Around the Edges of COP27, and May Boil Over Far From the Summit by Bob Berwyn, Politics & Policy, Inside Climate News, Nov 11, 2022
- What the tiny remaining 1.5C carbon budget means for climate policy, Guest Post by Piers Forster, Debbie Rosen, Robin Lamboll & Joeri Rogelj, Carbon Brief, Nov 11, 2022
- Climate Change and Human Activity Erode Egypt’s Treasured Antiquities by Vivian Yee, World, New York Times, Nov 12, 2022
Posted by John Hartz on Saturday, 12 November, 2022
