Back in April of 2020 Chi Xu et al. captivated some public attention with their paper Future of the human climate niche, which explained a reasonable case for its startling conclusion about routine habitability of large parts of our planet now supporting dense populations. Now come the same researchers along with added talent to refine and extend those results, and the news isn't getting better. Quantifying the human cost of global warming paints a grim picture. Here are our stakes in play, as reflected in the abstract:
The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate change has already put ~9% of people (>600 million) outside this niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) of people outside the niche. Reducing global warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C results in a ~5-fold decrease in the population exposed to unprecedented heat (mean annual temperature ≥29 °C). The lifetime emissions of ~3.5 global average citizens today (or ~1.2 average US citizens) expose one future person to unprecedented heat by end-of-century. That person comes from a place where emissions today are around half of the global average.
Each week's New Research includes a hefty collection of reports investigating various potential or actual GHG sources that add a cloud of uncertainty to our overall impact on climate, not least due to ripple effects potentially mobilizing previously stable reservoirs of organic carbon. Here's the net result: Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility.
Yet another smorgasbord of government/NGO reports this week. Here are two appetizers:
Physical science of climate change, effects
An Energy Budget Framework to Understand Mechanisms of Land–Ocean Warming Contrast Induced by Increasing Greenhouse Gases. Part II: Transient Climate State, Toda et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0483.1
Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics, Gu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-39039-7
What Models Tell Us About the Evolution of Carbon Sources and Sinks over the Phanerozoic, Goddéris et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-092701
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic emissions and land use/cover change contributions to extreme temperature changes over China, Xu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106845
Asymmetric warming rates between warm and cold weather regimes in Europe, Rantanen et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1178
Giant hail in Poland produced by a supercell merger in extreme instability – A sign of a warming climate?, Piasecki et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106843
Hydroclimatic extremes contribute to asymmetric trends in ecosystem productivity loss, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00869-4
Spatiotemporal changes in Universal Thermal Climate Index over South Asia, Kyaw et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106838
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Application of nonstationary extreme value analysis in the coastal environment – A systematic literature review, Radfar et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100575
East Asia Reanalysis System (EARS), Yin et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-2329-2023
Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?, von Schuckmann et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023
Interhemispheric Coupling Study by Observations and Modelling (ICSOM): Concept, Campaigns, and Initial Results, Sato et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022jd038249
Quantifying uncertainties related to observational datasets used as reference for regional climate model evaluation over complex topography — a case study for the wettest year 2010 in the Carpathian region, Kalmár et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04491-4
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Climate Change Impacts on Surface Heat Fluxes in a Deep Monomictic Lake, Ayala Zamora et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2022jd038355
CMIP6 captures the satellite-era jet slowdown and Arctic amplification, yet projects future jet speedup and tropical amplification, Robinson et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-06839-y
Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation using a spatial extremes framework, Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8038
Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38980-x
Future Increases in North American Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Downscaled with LOCA, Pierce et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0194.1
Local and non-local biophysical impacts of deforestation on global temperature during boreal summer: CMIP6-LUMIP multimodel analysis, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2022jd038229
Uncertainty in Projected Critical Soil Moisture Values in CMIP6 Affects the Interpretation of a More Moisture-Limited World, Hsu & Dirmeyer Dirmeyer, Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003511
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A 100-member ensemble simulations of global historical (1951–2010) wave heights, Casas-Prat et al., Scientific Data Open Access 10.1038/s41597-023-02058-6
Assessment of climate simulation over the Tibetan Plateau based on high-resolution multi-RCMs within CORDEX-EA-II, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106848
Beyond the ordinary metrics on the evaluation of historical Euro-CORDEX simulations over Türkiye: the mutual information approach, Vazifehkhah et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04492-3
The representation of alkalinity and the carbonate pump from CMIP5 to CMIP6 Earth system models and implications for the carbon cycle, Planchat et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023
Cryosphere & climate change
Geological sketch map and implications for ice flow of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, from integrated aerogeophysical observations, Jordan et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adf2639
Iceberg Calving: Regimes and Transitions, Alley et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 10.1146/annurev-earth-032320-110916
Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica, Gudmundsson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl102880
Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario, Kim et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38511-8
The Decaying Near-Surface Boundary Layer of a Retreating Alpine Glacier, Shaw et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl103043
Trajectories of freshwater microbial genomics and greenhouse gas saturation upon glacial retreat, Wei et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38806-w
Sea level & climate change
River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise, AKAMATSU et al., Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu B Open Access pdf 10.2208/jscejb.62.169
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Detection of abrupt changes in East Asian monsoon from Chinese loess and speleothem records, Rousseau et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104154
LegacyClimate 1.0: a dataset of pollen-based climate reconstructions from 2594 Northern Hemisphere sites covering the last 30 kyr and beyond, Herzschuh et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-2235-2023
The relevance and significance of variable cyclicities in paleoclimate archives, Aldahan, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2305219120
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Agriculture, urbanization, climate, and forest change drive bird declines, Tscharntke & Batáry, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2305216120
Corals adapted to extreme and fluctuating seawater pH increase calcification rates and have unique symbiont communities, Tanvet et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10099
Corridor quality buffers extinction under extreme droughts in experimental metapopulations, Li et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10166
Estimating phenology and phenological shifts with hierarchical modeling, Wilson et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4061
Evidence for density-dependent effects on body composition of a large omnivore in a changing Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, Corradini et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16759
Expanding range and role change, Armarego-Marriott, Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01675-8
Heat induces multiomic and phenotypic stress propagation in zebrafish embryos, Feugere et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad137
Importance of depth and temperature variability as drivers of coral symbiont composition despite a mass bleaching event, de Souza et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-023-35425-9
Influence of salinity and temperature on the growth, productivity, photosynthetic activity and intracellular ROS of two marine microalgae and cyanobacteria, Kholssi et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105932
Influence of salinity and temperature on the growth, productivity, photosynthetic activity and intracellular ROS of two marine microalgae and cyanobacteria [Mar. Environ. Res. 2023 Apr; 186:105932. Epub 2023 Feb 24], Kholssi et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106039
Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change, Seifert et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16799
Physiologically vulnerable or resilient? Tropical birds, global warming, and redistributions, Monge et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9985
Seafloor warm water temperature anomalies impact benthic macrofauna communities of a high-Arctic cold-water fjord, Jordà-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106046
Temperature change effects on marine fish range shifts: A meta-analysis of ecological and methodological predictors, Dahms & Killen Killen, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16770
Temperature niche composition change inside and outside protected areas under climate warming, Hintsanen et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14134
The 2022 summer marine heatwaves and coral bleaching in China's Greater Bay Area, Zhao et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106044
The Contribution of Microrefugia to Landscape Thermal Inertia for Climate-Adaptive Conservation Strategies, Thorne et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2022ef003338
Uncertain future for global sea turtle populations in face of sea level rise, Rivas et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-31467-1
Urban environments provide new perspectives for forecasting vegetation phenology responses under climate warming, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16761
Valleys are a potential refuge for the Amazon lowland forest in the face of increased risk of drought, Pohl et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00867-6
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Asymmetry of carbon sequestrations by plant and soil after forestation regulated by soil nitrogen, Hong et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38911-w
Atmospheric methane since the last glacial maximum was driven by wetland sources, Kleinen et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023
Characteristics and mechanisms of typhoon-induced decomposition of organic matter and its implication for climate change, Lao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007518
Concentration and isotopic composition of atmospheric N2O over the last century, Ghosh et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2022jd038281
Different nitrogen saturation thresholds for above-, below-, and total net primary productivity in a temperate steppe, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16803
Emission trends of air pollutants and CO2 in China from 2005 to 2021, Li et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-2279-2023
Hydrological Consequences of Solar Geoengineering, Ricke et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 10.1146/annurev-earth-031920-083456
Multi-scale mapping of Australia’s terrestrial and blue carbon stocks and their continental and bioregional drivers, Walden et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00838-x
On physical mechanisms enhancing air–sea CO2 exchange, Gutiérrez-Loza et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-5645-2022
On the uncertainty in estimates of the carbon balance recovery time after forest clear-cutting, Peichl et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16772
Protecting peatlands requires understanding stakeholder perceptions and relational values: A case study of peatlands in the Yorkshire Dales, Lees et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01850-3
Soil organic carbon pools and carbon management index under different land use systems in North western Himalayas, Mir et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15266
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The Montreal Protocol is delaying the occurrence of the first ice-free Arctic summer, England & Polvani, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2211432120
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Microbial adaptations within fine-scale soil structure alleviate phosphorus limitation on carbon sequestration following afforestation, Feng et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2023gb007691
Decarbonization
Environmental considerations, sustainability opportunities and Iraqi government’s energy policies: a comparative study, Saeed et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02339-x
Phase evolution under pressure, Javanbakht, Materialia Open Access 10.1016/j.mtla.2021.101199
Property value impacts of onshore wind energy in New England: The importance of spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics, Dong et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113643
Geoengineering climate
Solar Geoengineering in the Polar Regions: A Review, Duffey et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003679
Aerosols
Local and remote climate impacts of future African aerosol emissions, Wells et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-3575-2023
Variability in Biomass Burning Emissions Weakens Aerosol Forcing Due To Nonlinear Aerosol-Cloud Interactions, Heyblom et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2022gl102685
Climate change communications & cognition
Artistic representations of data can help bridge the US political divide over climate change, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00856-9
Denial and discretion as a governance process: How actor perceptions of risk and responsibility hinder adaptation to climate change, Birchall & Kehler, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.05.017
Harnessing the Power of Communication and Behavior Science to Enhance Society's Response to Climate Change, Maibach et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-114417
How to effectively communicate about greenhouse gas emissions with different populations, Wang et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.05.015
Leveraging critical race theory to produce equitable climate change adaptation, Rudge, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01690-9
Popular attitudes to climate change in the Pacific: the case of Samoa, Barbara et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access 10.1007/s10113-023-02065-8
The use of qualitative research to better understand public opinions on climate change, Kleinberg & Toomey , Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s13412-023-00841-w
Using Protection Motivation Theory to examine information-seeking behaviors on climate change, Li et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102698
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Applied nucleation under high biodiversity silvopastoral system as an adaptive strategy against microclimate extremes in pasture areas, Schmitt Filho et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02488-2
Breeding priorities for rice adaptation to climate change in Northeast China, Dong et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03556-7
Building climate resilience through crop residue utilization: Experiences of Ghanaian smallholder farmers, Antwi?Agyei et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.55
Climate change awareness, perceived impacts, and adaptation from farmers’ experience and behavior: a triple-loop review, Ricart et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access 10.1007/s10113-023-02078-3
Context-specific assessments of carbon footprints of the rice value chain: from product labeling to potential mitigation impacts, Wassmann et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 10.1007/s11367-023-02176-8
Hierarchy of value orientation and beliefs in climate change influencing the farmers’ extractive or non-extractive behavior on the farm, Karami, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03215-y
Interlinkages between leverage points for strengthening adaptive capacity to climate change, Rosengren et al., Sustainability Science Open Access 10.1007/s11625-023-01327-y
Stump height: a potential escalator of wood volume and carbon removals in miombo woodlands of mainland Tanzania, Manyanda et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02305-7
Temporal Trends in Agriculturally Relevant Climate Indicators across Nine Agroecosystems of Turkey, Irmak & Kukal, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-21-0209.1
The biomethane generation potential of wastes and wastewaters from the sericulture, fisheries, and agro-industrial sectors in India, Dey & Thomson, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.05.001
The effects of climate change on food production in India: evidence from the ARDL model, Ahmed et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-03209-w
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Geomorphic response of low-gradient, meandering and braided alluvial river channels to increased sediment supply, Kemper et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104429
MOPREDAS¢ury database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060
Multidecadal climate variability dominated past trends in the water balance of the Baltic Sea watershed, Markus Meier et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-023-00380-9
New York State Hurricane Hazard: History and Future Projections, Lee et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1175/jamc-d-21-0173.1
Projected trends in hydro-climatic extremes in small-to-mid-sized watersheds in eastern Nepal based on CMIP6 outputs, Shrestha et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-06836-1
Weakened Subtropical Westerlies Reduced Early Spring Precipitation in the Southeast Tibetan Plateau, Yuan et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0770.1
Climate change economics
Can environmental regulation improve firm total factor productivity? The mediating effects of credit resource allocation, Yang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02336-0
Conflict sensitive climate finance: lessons from the green climate fund, Scartozzi, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2023.2212640
Discounting the future: The effect of collective motivation on investment decisions and acceptance of policies for renewable energy, Marder et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000173
Green Innovation and Economic Growth in a North–South Model, Witajewski-Baltvilks & Fischer Fischer, Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access 10.1007/s10640-023-00778-2
Influence of economic decoupling in assessing carbon budget quotas for the European Union, Perissi & Jones, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2023.2217423
Rising carbon inequality and its driving factors from 2005 to 2015, Zheng et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102704
The drivers and barriers of energy efficiency, Su, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113598
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A techno-economic and environmental assessment of a low-carbon power generation system in Cameroon, Ayuketah et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113644
An innovative methodology for the determination of wind farms installation location characteristics using GIS and Delaunay Triangulation, Xenitidis et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.05.006
Co-benefits of carbon neutrality in enhancing and stabilizing solar and wind energy, Lei et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01692-7
Comparative analysis of UK net-zero scenarios: The role of energy demand reduction, Johnson et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113620
Corporate concessions: Opportunity or liability for climate advocacy groups?, Pulver, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102689
Examining fuel choice patterns through household energy transition index: an alternative to traditional energy ladder and stacking models, Waleed & Mirza, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02312-8
Identifying key-psychological factors influencing the acceptance of yet emerging technologies–A multi-method-approach to inform climate policy, Fenn et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000207
Identifying policy areas for the transition of the transportation sector, Hainsch, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113591
Impacts of livelihood assets on adaptation strategies in response to climate change: evidence from Pakistan, Sargani et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-022-02296-5
Leveraging the Global Stocktake for effective sectoral climate governance, van Asselt et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000229
National climate change acts: the emergence, form and nature of national framework climate legislation, Li & Zhu , Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2023.2213136
Protecting peatlands requires understanding stakeholder perceptions and relational values: A case study of peatlands in the Yorkshire Dales, Lees et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01850-3
Renovation wave of the residential building stock targets for the carbon-neutral: Evaluation by Finland and Türkiye case studies for energy demand, K?nay et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.04.014
Technology portfolio assessment for near-zero emission iron and steel industry in China, JIANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.05.004
The political economy of green industrial policy in Africa: Unpacking the coordination challenges in Ethiopia, Shen et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113633
Waste incinerators undermine clean energy goals, Tangri, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000100
Yellow, red, and brown energy: leveraging water footprinting concepts for decarbonizing energy systems, Grubert, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02760-2
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A framework to assess multi-hazard physical climate risk for power generation projects from publicly-accessible sources, Luo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00782-w
A review of climatic impacts on water main deterioration, Ahmad et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101552
A review of thermal perception and adaptation strategies across global climate zones, Li et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101559
Adapting to sea level rise: participatory, solution-oriented policy tools in vulnerable Mediterranean areas, Loizidou et al., Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access 10.1007/s10669-023-09910-5
An analysis of the spatial heterogeneity of future climate change impacts in support of cross-sectoral adaptation strategies in Japan, Liu & Masago, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100528
Centering equity in the development of a community resilience planning resource, Fry et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100520
Climate risk archetypes. Identifying similarities and differences of municipal risks for the adaptation process based on municipalities in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany, Riach et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100526
Flood cascading on critical infrastructure with climate change: a spatial analysis of the extreme weather event in Xinxiang, China, QIN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.05.005
Opportunities for planned retreat and flexible land use in Sweden: Local, regional and national governance perspectives, Göransson et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100530
Population dynamics shifts by climate change: High-resolution future mid-century trends for South America, Nuñez-Hidalgo et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104155
Testing the reliability of adaptive capacity as a proxy for adaptive and transformative responses to climate change, Bartelet et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102700
The Bahamas at risk: Material stocks, sea-level rise, and the implications for development, Martin del Campo et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13402
The hazard components of representative key risks The physical climate perspective, Tebaldi et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100516
What drives local climate change adaptation? A qualitative comparative analysis, Braunschweiger & Ingold , Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.03.013
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate and dengue transmission in Grenada for the period 2010–2020: Should we be concerned?, Francis et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000122
How Striking Is the Intergenerational Difference in Exposure to Compound Heatwaves Over Southeast Asia?, Sun et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2022ef003179
Shift in Peaks of PAH-Associated Health Risks From East Asia to South Asia and Africa in the Future, Lou et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2022ef003185
Short Warm Distribution Tails Accelerate the Increase of Humid-Heat Extremes Under Global Warming, Bekris et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2022gl102164
Climate change impacts on human culture
Potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of Chinese ski resorts, XU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.05.003
Quantifying the human cost of global warming, Lenton et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-023-01132-6
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Closing the ‘operationalisation gap‘: Insights from systemic risk research to inform transformational adaptation and risk management, Hochrainer-Stigler et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100531
Going beyond market-based mechanisms to finance nature-based solutions and foster sustainable futures, Chausson et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000169
Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?, von Schuckmann et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023
International climate targets are achievable, but only in models, not in the real world, Thompson, The Anthropocene Review Open Access pdf 10.1177/20530196231177686
Knowledge gaps are making it harder to formulate national climate policies, Feng et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2218563120
Placing diverse knowledge systems at the core of transformative climate research, Orlove et al., Ambio Open Access 10.1007/s13280-023-01857-w
Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments, van Maanen et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01644-1
Research needs for a food system transition, McDermid et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03507-2
The effectiveness of global protected areas for climate change mitigation, Duncanson et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38073-9
The history of net zero: can we move from concepts to practice?, Green & Reyes, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2218334
Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility, Harmsen et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38577-4
Book reviews
Climate justice in India, Devarhubli, Current World Environment Open Access pdf 10.12944/cwe.17.3.25
Clean Power Annual Market Report 2022, American Clean Power
The clean power industry commissioned over 25.5 GW of new clean power in 2022—a decline of 15% compared to the record-breaking year of 2021. While short of expectations, the industry did capture the majority of the market clean power projects, representing an impressive nearly 80% of all new capacity. 2022 brought the challenges and growth potential facing the clean power industry into stark relief. The clean power industry faced a string of obstacles in 2022. Supply chain constraints, lengthy delays connecting projects to the grid, unclear trade restrictions, longstanding permitting obstacles, and uncertainty over Inflation Reduction Act implementation hindered project development and investment activity.
Rich nations say they're spending billions to fight climate change. Some money is going to strange places, Rumney et al., Reuters
Developed nations have pledged $100 billion in annual funding to help developing countries reduce emissions and manage the impacts of climate change. They have not yet met the goal. From 2015 to 2020, 35 governments reported a total of more than $182 billion in grants, loans, bonds, equity investments and other contributions. Some countries, such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and the Netherlands, do submit detailed reports. The authors tallied tens of billions of dollars in spending from at least 33 countries that aligned with stated climate goals. That included investments in renewable energy and projects that build resilience to natural disasters. The authors asked 27 nations for details on the funding they reported to the U.N., examined public documents, and spoke to NGOs and others involved in reported projects. They also cross-checked U.N. reports against information recorded by other agencies, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a group representing mostly wealthy nations. The review covered about 10% of the total reports to the U.N. It turned up at least $3 billion spent not on solar panels or wind farms but on coal-fired power, airports, crime-fighting or other programs that do little or nothing to ease the effects of climate change. Five climate specialists – including university professors, researchers, and government officials focused on climate finance – agreed that the projects the authors identified have little or no direct connection to climate change.
Is That Climate Change? The Science of Extreme Event Attribution, Jonathan Haskett, Congressional Research Service
Climate change attribution is the study of whether, or to what degree, human influence may have contributed to extreme climate or weather events. Scientists can now estimate whether human activities have influenced extreme weather or climate events and changed how likely they are to occur. This is known as the science of climate change attribution. Several approaches to extreme event attribution have been developed, including a risk-based approach, which seeks to estimate human-influenced changes in the probability of an extreme event, and a storyline approach, which seeks to estimate the relative contribution of specific natural and human causes to an extreme event. The two approaches use many of the same analytic tools. Researchers may study different aspects of the same event, or use differing yet valid analytic methods and find results that seem inconsistent.
Small Modular Reactor and Advanced Reactor Feasibility Study Interim Report, Purdue University and Duke Energy
The authors examined the feasibility of advanced nuclear technology supplying power to Purdue University, with the excess energy exported to the state’s energy grid. Revolutionary in part because of their modular nature, portions of small modular nuclear reactors can be prefabricated off-site, thereby saving time and money in construction. They offer improved safety features and significantly lower costs compared to traditional, large-scale nuclear power plants. Included in the report are some key challenges and opportunities of the potential for advanced nuclear technology to supply Purdue University’s as well as Indiana's long-term power needs.
U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap, Satyapal et al., Department of Energy
The authors present a snapshot of hydrogen production, transport, storage, and use in the United States today, as well as an assessment of the opportunity for hydrogen to contribute to national decarbonization goals across sectors over the next 30 years.
Climate Finance Shadow Report 2023, Zagema et al., Oxfam
In 2009, high-income countries committed in the Copenhagen Accords to mobilize US$100 billion a year by 2020 in climate finance for low- and middle-income countries. The authors found that high-income countries have not only failed to deliver on their commitment but also – as in previous years – generous accounting practices have allowed them to overstate the level of support they have actually provided. Moreover, much of the finance has been provided as loans, which means that it risks increasing the debt burden of the countries it is supposed to help.
Driving to Clean Air: Health Benefits of Zero-Emission Cars and Electricity, American Lung Association
The authors found that a transition to 100 percent zero-emission new passenger vehicle sales by 2035, coupled with non-combustion electricity generation, would yield tremendous public health benefits across the United States. To provide significant reductions in harmful pollution, a growing list of states have adopted or are considering adoption of the “Advanced Clean Cars II” standard that cleans up new combustion engines and establishes a 100 percent sales standard for new passenger vehicles in 2035, with six states already have adopted this policy, and more are in the process of doing so.
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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 8 June, 2023
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