Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost, Creel et al., Nature Communications:
Sea-level rise submerges terrestrial permafrost in the Arctic, turning it into subsea permafrost. Subsea permafrost underlies ~ 1.8 million km2 of Arctic continental shelf, with thicknesses in places exceeding 700 m. Sea-level variations over glacial-interglacial cycles control subsea permafrost distribution and thickness, yet no permafrost model has accounted for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which deviates local sea level from the global mean due to changes in ice and ocean loading. Here we incorporate GIA into a pan-Arctic model of subsea permafrost over the last 400,000 years. Including GIA significantly reduces present-day subsea permafrost thickness, chiefly because of hydro-isostatic effects as well as deformation related to Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Additionally, we extend the simulation 1000 years into the future for emissions scenarios outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report. We find that subsea permafrost is preserved under a low emissions scenario but mostly disappears under a high emissions scenario.
How do we reinforce climate action?, Zhao et al., Sustainability Science:
Humanity has a shrinking window to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, yet climate action is still lacking on both individual and policy levels. We argue that this is because behavioral interventions have largely neglected the basic principles of operant conditioning as one set of tools to promote collective climate action. In this perspective, we propose an operant conditioning framework that uses rewards and punishments to shape transportation, food, waste, housing, and civic actions. This framework highlights the value of reinforcement in encouraging the switch to low-emission behavior, while also considering the benefit of decreasing high-emission behavior to expedite the transition. This approach also helps explain positive and negative spillovers from behavioral interventions.
Climate change-driven cooling can kill marine megafauna at their distributional limits, Lubitz et al., Nature Climate Change:
The impacts on marine species from secular warming and heatwaves are well demonstrated; however, the impacts of extreme cold events are poorly understood. Here we link the death of organisms from 81 species to an intense cold upwelling event in the Agulhas Current, and show trends of increasing frequency and intensification of upwelling in the Agulhas Current and East Australian Current. Using electronic tagging, we illustrate the potential impacts of upwelling events on the movement behaviour of bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas, including alterations of migratory patterns and maintenance of shallower dive profiles when transiting through upwelling cells. Increasing upwelling could result in ‘bait and switch’ situations, where climate change expands subtropical species’ distribution, while simultaneously exposing climate migrants to an increased risk of cold-mortality events at poleward distributional limits. This shows the potential impacts of increased cold events, an understudied aspect of climate change research, and highlights the complexities of climate change effects on marine ecosystems.
Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures, Venmans & Carr, Climate Risk Management:
How high should we build a dyke today, knowing that it will serve for more than 50 years? This depends on the probability distribution of future temperatures. We review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios. Reviewing expert elicitations, abatement costs of scenarios, learning rates of technologies, fossil fuel supply side dynamics and geoengineering, we argue that scenarios with emissions largely beyond current/stated policy scenarios and largely below current pledge scenarios are relatively unlikely. Based on this, we develop a literature-informed evaluation of the likelihoods of future temperature for use in Value at Risk stress tests in 2030, 2050 and 2100.
Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature, Waidelich et al., Nature Climate Change:
Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect of annual temperature changes. However, the roles of precipitation, temperature variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections of climate models with empirical dose–response functions translating shifts in temperature means and variability, rainfall patterns and extreme precipitation into economic damage, we show that at +3 °C global average losses reach 10% of gross domestic product, with worst effects (up to 17%) in poorer, low-latitude countries. Relative to annual temperature damage, the additional impacts of projecting variability and extremes are smaller and dominated by interannual variability, especially at lower latitudes. However, accounting for variability and extremes when estimating the temperature dose–response function raises global economic losses by nearly two percentage points and exacerbates economic tail risks.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Boom and Bust Coal. Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline, Global Energy Monitor, Global Energy Monitor, CREA, E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, SFOC, Kiko Network, CAN Europe, Bangladesh Groups, Trend Asia, Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy, Chile Sustentable, POLEN Transiciones Justas, Iniciativa Climática de México, and Arayara:
Despite promising momentum, the world’s operating coal power capacity has grown 11% since 2015 and global coal use and coal capacity reached an all time high in 2023. The global coal fleet grew by 48.4 gigawatts (GW), or 2%, in 2023 to a total of 2,130 GW, with China driving two-thirds of additions. Outside of China, the coal fleet also saw a small 4.7 GW uptick for the first time since 2019. Although new retirement plans and phaseout commitments continued to emerge, less coal capacity was retired in 2023 than in any other single year in more than a decade. Globally, 69.5 GW of capacity came online while 21.1 GW was retired, resulting in a net annual increase of 48.4 GW, the highest since 2016, bringing the global total capacity to 2,130 GW. China’s 70.2 GW of new construction starts in 2023 represents 19x more than the rest of the world’s 3.7 GW and is the country’s highest annual capacity breaking ground since 2015. Outside of China and India, total proposed coal capacity is at its lowest since data collection began in 2015.
What do Americans want to know about climate change?, Ballew et al., Yale University and George Mason University:
In this analysis, the authors investigated how the questions people would ask an expert vary across different subgroups, including demographic and political groups and Global Warming’s Six Americas. The Six Americas framework categorizes people into six distinct audiences based on their opinions about climate change, ranging from the Alarmed (who are the most worried and supportive of action) to the Dismissive (who do not believe climate change is happening or human caused and are often opposed to action). Americans are most interested in learning about solutions to global warming (44%), followed by evidence that it is happening (20%) or information about the causes (18%). Fewer Americans (11%) would ask first about the impacts of global warming. The topics people would ask about differ across demographic and political groups.
Observations of climate change, effects
Assessment of climate variability and trends in different physiographic zones of North Western Himalayas, Shafiq et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04961-3
InSAR-measured permafrost degradation of palsa peatlands in northern Sweden, Valman et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-18-1773-2024
The risk of concurrent heatwaves and extreme sea levels along the global coastline is increasing, Zhou & Wang, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01274-1
Using UNSEEN approach to attribute regional UK winter rainfall extremes, Cotterill et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8460
Wintertime extreme warming events in the high Arctic: characteristics, drivers, trends, and the role of atmospheric rivers, Ma et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-24-4451-2024
“All the rivers we used to travel by”: Indigenous knowledge of hydrological change and its impacts in the Mackenzie Delta Region, Canada, Ziegler et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02209-4
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co-Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change, Biess et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004114
Forecast urban ecosystem services to track climate change: Combining machine learning and emergy spatial analysis, Liu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101910
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
An Ensemble Learning Model Reveals Accelerated Reductions in Snow Depth Over Arctic Sea Ice Under High-Emission Scenarios, Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039910
Continental-scale bias-corrected climate and hydrological projections for Australia, Peter et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-2755-2024
Evaluation and projections of summer daily precipitation over Northeastern China in an optimal CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble, LI & Jiao, Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07201-6
Greater climate sensitivity implied by anvil cloud thinning, Sokol et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.169903658.89307701/v1
Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation linked to changes in precipitable water and vertical velocity in CMIP6 models, Gimeno-Sotelo et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107413
Projected changes of compound droughts and heatwaves in China under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, Liu et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07215-0
Responses of Mesoscale Convective System to Global Warming: A Study on the Henan 2021 Record-Breaking Rainfall Event, Lin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039473
Spatial–temporal assessment of future extreme precipitation and extreme high-temperature exposure across China, Jin et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8452
The Influence of Climate Variability and Future Climate Change on Atlantic Hurricane Season Length, Patricola et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107881
Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity modulated by phytoplankton feedback under global warming, Kim et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01976-6
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A machine learning approach for evaluating Southern Ocean cloud radiative biases in a global atmosphere model, Fiddes et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-2641-2024
A systematic review of predictor screening methods for downscaling of numerical climate models, Baghanam et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104773
An extremes-weighted empirical quantile mapping for global climate model data bias correction for improved emphasis on extremes, Rohith & Cibin, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-04965-z
Assessment of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in CMIP6 Models Based on Moisture Mode Theory, Lin et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106693
Model Biases in the Atmosphere-Ocean Partitioning of Poleward Heat Transport Are Persistent Across Three CMIP Generations, Donohoe et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106639
Synergies of CGE and IAM modelling for climate change implications on WEFE nexus in the Mediterranean, Orna et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100608
Cryosphere & climate change
Amundsen Sea circulation controls bottom upwelling and Antarctic Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelf melting, Park et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47084-z
Glacial isostatic adjustment reduces past and future Arctic subsea permafrost, Creel et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45906-8
Glacier Retreat in Eastern Himalaya Drives Catastrophic Glacier Hazard Chain, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108202
High temporal resolution records of the velocity of Hansbreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard, B?aszczyk et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-1847-2024
Impacts of early-winter Arctic sea-ice loss on wintertime surface temperature in China, Xia et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07225-y
Influence of autumn Kara Sea ice on the subsequent winter minimum temperature over the Northeast China, Han et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8461
Modelling present and future rock wall permafrost distribution in the Sisimiut mountain area, West Greenland, Marcer et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-1753-2024
Odden Ice Melt Linked to Labrador Sea Ice Expansions and the Great Salinity Anomalies of 1970–1995, Allan & Allan, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc019988
Recent increase in the surface mass balance in central East Antarctica is unprecedented for the last 2000 years, Ekaykin et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01355-1
Record-breaking Barents Sea ice loss favors to the unprecedented summertime extreme heatwave in 2021 over western North America by enhancing Rossby wave ridge, Wei et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07168-4
Triggers of the 2022 Larsen B multi-year landfast sea ice breakout and initial glacier response, Ochwat et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-1709-2024
Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47655-0
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Spatial variability of marine-terminating ice sheet retreat in the Puget Lowland, McKenzie et al., Climate of the Past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-20-891-2024
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A global database on coral recovery following marine heatwaves, van Woesik & Kratochwill, Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-024-03221-3
Amundsen Sea circulation controls bottom upwelling and Antarctic Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelf melting, Park et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47084-z
An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi, Banda et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11283
Are forest management practices to improve carbon balance compatible with maintaining bird diversity under climate change? A case study in Eastern North America, Labadie et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000293
Climate change impacts on mesophotic regions of the Great Barrier Reef, McWhorter et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2303336121
Climate change-driven cooling can kill marine megafauna at their distributional limits, Lubitz et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-01966-8
Climate-driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas, Manrique?Ascencio et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17282
Drought- and heat-induced mortality of conifer trees is explained by leaf and growth legacies, Sterck et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adl4800
Effects of increasing soil moisture on Antarctic desert microbial ecosystems, Zhang et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.14268
Frugivores enhance potential carbon recovery in fragmented landscapes, Bello et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01989-1
Kelp forest diversity under projected end-of-century climate change, Assis et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13837
Latitude or altitude as the future refugium? A case for the future of forests in Asia Minor and its surroundings, , Ascension Theory Open Access 10.2307/j.ctt20q1vvr.23
Microbial phosphorus-cycling genes in soil under global change, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17281
Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Cytospora chrysosperma in Xinjiang, China under climate change scenarios, Li et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1370365
Radiation, Air Temperature, and Soil Water Availability Drive Tree Water Deficit Across Temporal Scales in Canada's Western Boreal Forest, Perron et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107477
Response of Alnus glutinosa to Phytophthora bark infections at ambient and elevated CO2 levels, Machá?ová et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1379791
Temperature-driven homogenization of an ant community over 60 years in a montane ecosystem, Paraskevopoulos et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4302
The Combined Effects of Ocean Acidification and Respiration on Habitat Suitability for Marine Calcifiers Along the West Coast of North America, Feely et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc019892
The impact of temperature on increased airborne pollen and earlier onset of the pollen season in Trentino, Northern Italy, Cristofolini et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02223-6
Unexpected increase in structural integrity caused by thermally induced dwarfism in large benthic foraminifera, Titelboim et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access pdf 10.1098/rsos.231280
Unexpected sources of uncertainty in projecting habitat shifts for Arctic shorebirds under climate change, Anderson et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13829
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Carbon fluxes of China's coastal wetlands and impacts of reclamation and restoration, Lu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17280
Contrasting carbon cycle along tropical forest aridity gradients in West Africa and Amazonia, Zhang-Zheng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47202-x
Enhanced atmospheric oxidation toward carbon neutrality reduces methane’s climate forcing, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47436-9
Evolution characteristics, carbon emission effects and influencing factors of production-living-ecological space in Taihang Mountain poverty belt, China, Chen et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1347592
Global energy use and carbon emissions from irrigated agriculture, Qin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47383-5
Leakage of old carbon dioxide from a major river system in the Canadian Arctic, Dasari et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae134
Ocean acidification offsets the effect of warming on sediment denitrification and associated nitrous oxide production, Simone et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01347-1
Radiative and Chemical Effects of Non-Homogeneous Methane on Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes in Asia, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040204
Refining greenhouse gas emission factors for Indonesian peatlands and mangroves to meet ambitious climate targets, Murdiyarso et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2307219121
Restricted plant diversity limits carbon recapture after wildfire in warming boreal forests, Eckdahl et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01333-7
Shedding light on the increased carbon uptake by a boreal forest under diffuse solar radiation across multiple scales, Neimane?Šroma et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17275
Soil inorganic carbon stock and its changes across the Tibetan Plateau during the 1980s–2020s, Lin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104433
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Spatiotemporal variation and response of gross primary productivity to climate factors in forests in Qiannan state from 2000 to 2020, Liao et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1293541
Technical note: Preventing CO2 overestimation from mercuric or copper(II) chloride preservation of dissolved greenhouse gases in freshwater samples, Clayer et al., HydroShare Resources Open Access 10.4211/hs.436be40748a246269102b20211b49762
The role of biota in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle, Boyd et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00531-3
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A taxonomy to map evidence on the co-benefits, challenges, and limits of carbon dioxide removal, Prütz et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01365-z
Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management, Yu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47143-5
Mechanically stable polymer molecular sieve membranes with switchable functionality designed for high CO2 separation performance, Lee & Bae, Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adl2787
Pathways for marine carbon dioxide removal using electrochemical acid-base generation, Eisaman, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1349604
Decarbonization
Factors affecting the production cost of green hydrogen and its challenge for sustainable development, Athia et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04798-w
Floating photovoltaics may reduce the risk of hydro-dominated energy development in Africa, Arnold et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01510-0
Research trends in the use of secondary batteries for energy storage, García-Pineda et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1362706
Geoengineering climate
A tool for assessing the sensitivity of soil-based approaches for quantifying enhanced weathering: a US case study, Suhrhoff et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1346117
Black carbon Aerosols
Substantial cooling effect from aerosol-induced increase in tropical marine cloud cover, Chen et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01427-z
Climate change communications & cognition
A longitudinal investigation of risk perceptions and adaptation behavior in the US Gulf Coast, Wong-Parodi et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae099
Blame over blackouts: Correcting partisan misinformation regarding renewable energy in the United States, Benegal & Scruggs, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103543
Climate change in and out of the therapy room, Macagnino, British Gestalt Journal Open Access pdf 10.53667/hphn5917
Climate change, cultural continuity and ecological grief: Insights from the Sámi Homeland, Markkula et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-024-02012-9
Does the Use of Media and Other Information Sources Cause the Perceived Experience of Climate Change or is it the Other Way Around?, Loban, The English Journal Open Access 10.2307/807542
The Green Beat: Exploring India’s Environmental Journalism and Climate Change Issues, Ogadimma, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2342510
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Carbon emissions and food production: why climate change is a threat to Nigeria’s food security, Fagbemi et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-024-00916-2
CLASH – Climate-responsive Land Allocation model with carbon Storage and Harvests, Ekholm et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-17-3041-2024
Effectiveness of climate information services: an evaluation of the accuracy and socio-economic benefits for smallholder farmers in Niger and Mali, Bizo et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1345888
Empirical modeling of agricultural climate risk, Burney et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2215677121
Global energy use and carbon emissions from irrigated agriculture, Qin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47383-5
Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937
Non-Linear Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields May Mislead Stakeholders, Ruane et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003842
Spatiotemporal variations of non-farming use of cropland in China under different SSP-RCP scenarios, Linghu et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02219-2
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A new methodology for probabilistic flood displacement risk assessment: the case of Fiji and Vanuatu, Rossi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1345258
Characterization of the future northeast monsoon rainfall based on the clustered climate zone under CMIP6 in Peninsular Malaysia, Sa'adi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107407
Climate change and La Niña increase the likelihood of the ‘7·20’ extraordinary typhoon-rainstorm in Zhengzhou, China, Wang & Yuan, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8386
Future Changes in Floods, Droughts, and Their Extents in the Alps: A Sensitivity Analysis With a Non-Stationary Stochastic Streamflow Generator, Brunner & Gilleland, Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004238
Hydrological Projections in the Third Pole Using Artificial Intelligence and an Observation-Constrained Cryosphere-Hydrology Model, Long et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004222
Predicting the impact of climate change on the area of wetlands using remote sensing, Heidarzadeh et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04969-9
Projections of meteorological drought events in the upper K?z?l?rmak basin under climate change scenarios, Selçuk et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04952-4
Soil inorganic carbon stock and its changes across the Tibetan Plateau during the 1980s–2020s, Lin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104433
Trends and amount changes of temperature and precipitation under future projections in high–low groups and intra-period for the Eastern Black Sea, the Wettest Basin in Türkiye, Nacar et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06588-z
Using copula functions to predict climatic change impacts on floods in river source regions, Chen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.04.006
Using UNSEEN approach to attribute regional UK winter rainfall extremes, Cotterill et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8460
Climate change economics
Carbon finance and funding for forest sector climate solutions: a review and synthesis of the principles, policies, and practices, Zhou et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1309885
Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature, Waidelich et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-01990-8
Corporate carbon emissions management and the disclosure of key audit matters, Wang & Wu, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1381466
Unequal impacts of urban industrial land expansion on economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions, Yoo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01375-x
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Amazon energy transition: The need to accelerate emission reduction by the extensive adoption of solar photovoltaics and storage in Brazil, Soliano Perreira et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101445
Australian microgrids: Navigating complexity in the regional energy transition, Wright et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103540
Does citizen participation improve acceptance of a Green Deal? Evidence from choice experiments in Ukraine and Switzerland, Kostyuchenko et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114106
Emerging challenges of offshore wind energy in the Global South: Perspectives from Brazil, Gorayeb et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103542
Estimation of expressway carbon emissions and simulation of policies based on OTC data: A case study of Guangdong, China, Li et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101908
Greener through gender: What climate mainstreaming can learn from gender mainstreaming, Lam et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.887
How do we reinforce climate action?, Zhao et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-024-01486-6
Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal, Pedersen et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02217-4
Is South Korea's 2050 Carbon-Neutral scenario sufficient for meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal?, Cho et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101447
Performative politics of REDD+ experts: Siloed discourses and a missed opportunity, Kono & Upton, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103741
Promotion strategy of low-carbon multimodal transportation considering government regulation and cargo owners’ willingness, Hu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04829-6
Research on the spatial spillover effect of carbon trading market development on regional emission reduction, Cui et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1356689
Revisiting Copenhagen climate mitigation targets, Li et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-01977-5
Short-run marginal emission factors neglect impactful phenomena and are unsuitable for assessing the power sector emissions impacts of hydrogen electrolysis, Ricks et al., Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114119
Urban actions toward energy efficiency and carbon reduction—an empirical study under the urbanization dynamics, Hsi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04908-8
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate change, urban vulnerabilities and adaptation in Africa: a scoping review, Ansah et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03711-8
Coastal management and climate change on the island and the sea of Chiloé (Chile): An evaluation of policies, regulations, and instruments, Vázquez Pinillos & Chica Ruiz, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103758
European patterns of local adaptation planning—a regional analysis, Buzási et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02211-w
Exploring the determinants of disaster and climate resilience building in Zimbabwe’s rural communities, Nyahunda et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06605-1
How is the military and defence sector of EU member states adapting to climate risks?, Amakrane & Biesbroek, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100609
Navigating climate change complexity and deep uncertainty: approach for building socio-ecological resilience using qualitative dynamic simulation, Merino-Benítez et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1331945
Optimal risk management considering environmental and climatic changes, Benkraiem et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.14306
Climate change impacts on human health
Community adaptation to heat stress − Social network analysis, Mondal et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100606
Large transboundary health impact of Arctic wildfire smoke, Silver et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01361-3
Present and future situation of West Nile virus in the Afro-Palaearctic pathogeographic system, García?Carrasco et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06941
Public health: a forgotten piece of the adaptation law puzzle, Boocock et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1355793
Urban heat island in Warsaw (Poland): Current development and projections for 2050, Kuchcik et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101901
Climate change & geopolitics
Post-Paris agreement negotiations: A commitment to multilateralism despite the lack of funding, Ruiz-Campillo, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103754
Climate change impacts on human culture
Modelling the impact of climate change on cultural practices: the future of fen skating (1981–2079), Richards, Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02218-3
Other
Environmental plastics in the context of UV radiation, climate change, and the Montreal Protocol, Jansen et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17279
Projecting Global Mercury Emissions and Deposition Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Geyman et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004231
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Issues of democratisation in citizen science for urban climate services, Strähle & Urban, Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2024.1330463
Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures, Venmans & Carr, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100605
Opportunities to grow tribal clean energy in the US, Yazzie et al., Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adk8298
Values must be at the heart of responding to loss and damage, McNamara et al., Frontiers in Climate 10.3389/fclim.2024.1339915
Queued Up: 2024 Edition. Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2023, Rand et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require projects seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. The authors compile and analyze interconnection queue data from all seven ISOs/RTOs alongside 44 non-ISO utilities, which collectively represent over 95% of the currently installed U.S. electric generating capacity. The total capacity active in the queues is growing year-over-year, with over 1,570 GW of generation and an estimated 1,030 GW of storage capacity as of the end of 2023. In total, over 1,480 GW of zero-carbon generating capacity is currently seeking transmission access. Solar (1,086 GW) accounts for the largest share of generation capacity in the queues. Substantial wind (366 GW) capacity is also seeking interconnection, 1/3 of which is for offshore projects (120 GW). Solar and battery storage are – by far – the fastest-growing resources in the queues. Combined, they account for over 80% of new capacity entering the queues in 2023.
State of Storage In New York. Annual Energy Storage Deployment Report, New York State Department of Public Service
The New York State Public Service Commission's energy storage deployment policy has effectively strengthened the market for developing and installing qualified energy storage systems in New York. Total deployed (396 MW), awarded/contracted (581 MW) projects at the end of March 2024 equaled 977 MW in capacity, or about 65 percent of the 2025 target of 1,500 MW and 33 percent of the 2030 target of 3,000 MW. The number of energy storage projects in various interconnection queues, which reflects some of the awarded or contracted projects noted above and potential projects in the pipeline, also indicates robust activity in the industry. Over 38,000 MW of energy storage projects are presently in New York utility interconnection queues and the New York Independent System Operator interconnection queue, although some of these projects may not be built due to unfavorable project-specific economics and for other reasons.
Achieving an 80% Renewable Portfolio in Alaska’s Railbelt: Cost Analysis, Denholm et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory
The Alaska Railbelt utilities face growing challenges because of the declining supply of natural gas from the Cook Inlet and substantial projected price increases. The Railbelt power system extends from Fairbanks through Anchorage to the Kenai Peninsula and consists of five utilities. Renewable energy in the form of wind and solar is a potentially cost-competitive option to reduce reliance on natural gas, which in 2022 provided nearly two-thirds of the Railbelt electricity demand. The authors examine the system-level costs and benefits of increased renewable energy deployment in the Railbelt grid in the context of a proposed 80% renewable portfolio standard (RPS). This work studies the period from 2024 to 2040 and uses a model that simulates the planning, evolution, and operation of the power system to identify the mix of resources that maintains system reliability at the lowest electricity system cost over the period of analysis.
Valuing Improvements in Electric Vehicle Efficiency, Cavanagh et al., Electric Power Research Institute and the Natural Resources Defense Council
The authors explore the fundamental role that future vehicle efficiency improvements—additional and complementary to electrification—can play in lessening infrastructure and energy needs and reducing consumer costs. Electrification by itself brings major energy savings and other benefits, but the additional and often-overlooked improvements considered here reduce the amount of electricity needed to power vehicles, which is projected to be a large future load. The authors characterize key automotive technology advances and examines their potential effects from the perspective of consumers, electricity and charging infrastructure providers, and automakers.
How England can produce more onshore renewable energy fast, Friends of the Earth
Wind and solar farms are by far the cheapest forms of electricity production. For example, electricity from gas-fired power stations is almost 3 times more expensive to produce.?More renewable electricity production can therefore help lower energy bills. It will also reduce carbon emissions as it displaces gas-fired electricity and as transport and heating are electrified. Electrifying heating and transport are essential for meeting the UK’s international commitment to cut carbon emissions by 68% by 2030. The UK therefore needs a lot more renewable electricity.
Braiding Indigenous and Western Knowledge for Climate-Adapted Forests: An Ecocultural State of Science Report, Eisenberg et al., US. Forest Service
North American forests are experiencing unprecedented challenges due to extreme wildfires, pathogen and insect outbreaks, heat stress, drought, rapid development, and invasive species. Exacerbated by climate change, these threats collectively diminish economic values, cultural values, and habitat. Particularly because of fire exclusion, contemporary and historical management policies are root causes of current forest conditions. Coupling Indigenous Knowledge (IK) with Western Science (WS) can catalyze proactive approaches to address threats to NA forests at meaningful scales. The authors recommend the following adaptive strategies to restore forest landscape resilience, adopt proactive stewardship; provide the flexibility to steward for dynamic landscapes and navigate uncertainties under rapidly changing conditions; ground agency planning and land and resource stewardship policies in ethics of reciprocity and responsibility to future generations; catalyze innovative approaches to forest stewardship by effectively funding adaptive forest stewardship and long-term monitoring at stand to landscape scales; and recognize and respect tribal sovereignty and indigenous knowledge.
Boom and Bust Coal. Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline, Global Energy Monitor, Global Energy Monitor, CREA, E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, SFOC, Kiko Network, CAN Europe, Bangladesh Groups, Trend Asia, Alliance for Climate Justice and Clean Energy, Chile Sustentable, POLEN Transiciones Justas, Iniciativa Climática de México, and Arayara
Despite promising momentum, the world’s operating coal power capacity has grown 11% since 2015 and global coal use and coal capacity reached an all time high in 2023. The global coal fleet grew by 48.4 gigawatts (GW), or 2%, in 2023 to a total of 2,130 GW, with China driving two-thirds of additions. Outside of China, the coal fleet also saw a small 4.7 GW uptick for the first time since 2019. Although new retirement plans and phaseout commitments continued to emerge, less coal capacity was retired in 2023 than in any other single year in more than a decade. Globally, 69.5 GW of capacity came online while 21.1 GW was retired, resulting in a net annual increase of 48.4 GW, the highest since 2016, bringing the global total capacity to 2,130 GW. China’s 70.2 GW of new construction starts in 2023 represents 19x more than the rest of the world’s 3.7 GW and is the country’s highest annual capacity breaking ground since 2015. Outside of China and India, total proposed coal capacity is at its lowest since data collection began in 2015.
Global Gateway: Towards a European External Climate Security Strategy?, Diana-Paula Gherasim, Center for Energy and Climate, French Institute for International Relations
Bridging the global infrastructure investment gap, especially in Africa, is paramount for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. The investment needs to be associated with the energy transitions and the fight against climate change further increases the financial gap for developing countries. Global Gateway puts principled connectivity at the core of the Europen Union's (EU) external action, linking geoeconomic and climate diplomacy with development policies under a Team Europe approach. Selected projects are to be driven both by the needs of partner countries and the EU’s interests. The aim is to mobilize 300 billion euros in investments by 2027 by using public funds to crowd in private investments. The private sector is to play a key role in shaping the Global Gateway actions. It remains to be seen if the Team Europe approach can make a difference at the required scale. Strategic adjustments could further unleash Global Gateway’s potential.
Towards a Common Vision for Climate Change, Security and Migration in the Mediterranean, Mastrorillo et al., Alliance Bioversity International and CIAT, CGIAR Focus Climate Security
The white paper is the result of a high-level discussion carried out at the event “Towards a Common Vision of the Climate, Migration, and Security Nexus in the Mediterranean Region,” organized by the CGIAR Focus Climate Security and the Alliance of Bioversity & CIAT and held in Rome in June 2023. The discussion collected opinions of scientists, politicians, experts, and representatives of relevant international organizations on the climate-security-mobility nexus in the Mediterranean. The purpose of the discussion was to analyze current and foreseen vulnerabilities, risks, and hazards affecting livelihoods in the region, and identify potential solutions and integrated approaches to increasing climate adaptation capacities, reducing involuntary and unsafe migration, and sustaining peace and stability.
Closing NY’s Rooftop Solar Gap, Rajan et al., Win Climate and Columbia Business School
New York has a large rooftop solar gap: homeowners with an annual income above $50,000 are 2.5x more likely to have rooftop solar than those making below $50,000, who do not always pay enough income tax to claim the full credit. New York’s solar tax credit is inequitable: households making less than $50,000 make up 24% of owner-occupied households in New York State, but have only received 5% of the state’s residential tax credit subsidies. Refundable tax credits make solar more affordable: refundable residential tax credits could benefit up to 63% of New York’s 1.4 million energy-burdened households, and would cut the cost of solar for the average low-income household by 48%, from $98 to $51 a month.
Options for a Paris-Compliant Livestock Sector, Harwatt et al., Harvard Law School
All aspects of society must be radically transformed to align with the global temperature limits of the Paris Agreement. Much of the political focus has been on the energy transition, however, a food transition is also needed – especially in highly emitting agricultural commodities from livestock production. The authors identify for the first time a potential Paris-compliant emissions trajectory for the livestock sector by eliciting responses from over 200 climate scientists and sustainable food/ agriculture experts based in 48 countries. Over 90% of participants focused the majority (51%) or some (40%) of their research on the causes, impacts, or mitigation of climate change, and most had 11 or more years of experience in their field.
Global Wind Energy Report 2024, Lee et al., Suzlon, Masdar et al
The authors examine four areas – investment, supply chains, system infrastructure and public consensus – which will set the conditions for wind energy growth to take off through 2030 in pursuit of the tripling renewables goal. While not an exhaustive list, the authors consider these domains critical for meaningful engagement to mitigate the risks of an unstable and disorderly transition. This year’s report also delves into the potential pinch points that accompany the present-day technological era: a rapid innovation cycle in wind technology which undermines business profitability and risks product quality; interest groups actively using technology and social media to foment disinformation on climate change and renewables; robotics, artificial intelligence (AI) and automation introducing further disruptions to labor and workforce planning; and a digitalization gap between countries which impacts their capacity to allocate land, permit projects and operate smart, modern grids.
Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Innovative Grid Deployment, White et al., Department of Energy
The authors focus on identifying pathways to accelerate deployment of key commercially available but underutilized advanced grid solutions on the existing transmission and distribution system to address near-term hotspots and modernize the grid to prepare for a wide range of energy futures.
What do Americans want to know about climate change?, Ballew et al., Yale University and George Mason University
In this analysis, the authors investigated how the questions people would ask an expert vary across different subgroups, including demographic and political groups and Global Warming’s Six Americas. The Six Americas framework categorizes people into six distinct audiences based on their opinions about climate change, ranging from the Alarmed (who are the most worried and supportive of action) to the Dismissive (who do not believe climate change is happening or human caused and are often opposed to action). Americans are most interested in learning about solutions to global warming (44%), followed by evidence that it is happening (20%) or information about the causes (18%). Fewer Americans (11%) would ask first about the impacts of global warming. The topics people would ask about differ across demographic and political groups.
Perceptions of Large-Scale Solar Project Neighbors: Results From a National Survey, Rand. et al, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Driven by favorable economics, policy factors, and decarbonization goals, large-scale solar (LSS, defined here as ground-mounted photovoltaic projects ≥1 MWDC) has expanded rapidly in recent years, with more than 90 gigawatts (GW) now installed across the United States. Growth in LSS deployment is anticipated to accelerate in response to growing electricity demand and utility, state, and federal decarbonization goals. This continued expansion hinges, in part, on the continued support of local residents and decision-makers in communities hosting LSS projects. Understanding the perceptions and attitudes of existing LSS neighbors is critical to inform and enable future LSS deployment, and to improve outcomes for those host communities.
Assessing Methods to Integrate the Physical Risks and Transition Risks and Opportunities of Climate Change Into the President’s Macroeconomic Forecast, Council of Economic Advisors and hte Office of Management and Budget, White House
The Federal government has broad exposure to the physical risks of climate change and the transition risks associated with the global shift away from carbon-intensive energy sources. At the same time, the shift to clean energy provides a generational opportunity to create new sources of economic growth. These transitional opportunities and challenges affect future output growth and other economic outcomes and are therefore relevant to the President’s Budget. Building on nearly three years of work completed under Section 6(a) of Executive Order 14030 on Climate-Related Financial Risk, the authors present a step-by-step method for quantifying these risks and opportunities into a macroeconomic forecasting framework with the goal of more accurately projecting near-term macroeconomic outcomes relevant to the President’s Budget. For each step, the authors assess available tools, methodological tradeoffs, and directions for further research based on the current literature.
Toward "Better" Meat? Aligning Meat Sourcing Strategies with Corporate Climate and Sustainability Goals, Waite et al., World Resources Institute
The authors focus on assisting consumer-facing food companies with climate and other sustainability goals that plan to source not only “less meat” but also “better meat.” Because “better meat” has many meanings, the authors review evidence of the links between meat production, climate change, and other aspects of sustainability, looking across production practices and systems. They recommend six steps to help food companies meet multiple sustainability goals, from environmental effects measurement and sourcing strategy design to supplier engagement.
Illuminating a Path to a Cleaner and More Resilient Energy System in Cuba, Silverman-Roati et al., abin Center for Climate Change Law and Environmental Defense Fund
The report provides detailed information on the current state of Cuba’s electricity sector and recommends reforms to advance the transition to a lower emission, reliable, and more climate resilient system. The recommendations include possible changes to Cuban domestic policies to, among other things, encourage greater public and private investment in the country’s energy transition. The report also explores how a bilateral dialogue between the U.S. and Cuban governments could help to drive renewable energy development in the island nation, in a manner that benefits the Cuban people as well as the interests of people throughout the region.
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Posted by Doug Bostrom on Thursday, 18 April, 2024
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