Fact brief - Is methane the largest driver of recent global warming?

Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with members from our team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.

Is methane the largest driver of recent global warming?

Methane only accounts for 20-30% of recent warming, while human-made CO₂ remains the dominant driver of recent climate change.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas significantly more effective at trapping heat than CO₂; however, there is approximately 220 times more CO₂ than methane in our atmosphere. Methane is also significantly shorter-lived, with an atmospheric lifetime of around a decade in comparison to CO₂ lasting for centuries.

Human activity contributes over two-thirds of methane emissions, mainly via agriculture and livestock, fossil fuel extraction, and landfills. Methane levels have risen 2.7 times above pre-industrial levels.

Large amounts of methane are also trapped in permafrost. As permafrost thaws in rising temperatures, the released methane’s greenhouse effect creates a feedback loop that melts more permafrost and further accelerates warming.

While methane plays a role in global warming, CO₂ remains the primary driver of current climate change.

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Sources

International Energy Agency Methane and Climate Change

NASA Methane

Copernicus Greenhouse gas concentrations

The Salata Institute at Harvard University Thawing permafrost: what does it mean? And what can be done?

About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.

Posted by Guest Author on Saturday, 8 February, 2025

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