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Eclectic at 11:01 AM on 3 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
Aanthanur @55 & prior posts :-
I have the strong impression that your argumentative "friend" is simply not looking at the evidence.
He may wish to claim that the Cook et al. 2013 study can show a consensus level of 87% or 57% or 27% . . . . but the authors' self-rating section of the study does show the same 97% consensus figure matching the 97% consensus figure supplied by the independent assessors.
Game over. 97% consensus is the real figure for Cook et al. 2013
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nigelj at 10:36 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
UK met office global temperature prediction for 2018 with graph :
"The Met Office global temperature forecast suggests that 2018 will be another very warm year globally but is unlikely to be a new record due to a moderate La Niña in the Pacific."
www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/2018-global-temperature-forecast
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dana1981 at 09:10 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
nigel & chris - I think you're confusing the statistic (15 disasters costing over $1 billion each) with the total cost (not yet calculated).
Sangfroid @ 10: I don't really appreciate the accusation of misleading the public, just because you don't understand the margins of uncertainty involved. The NASA GISTEMP 95% uncertainty is about +/- 0.025°C. You can see it for yourself in the blue bars here: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.png
Moderator Response:[DB] A note to readership: Sangfroid's comment was removed to accusations of malfeasance, a violation of the comments policy.
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nigelj at 08:20 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
Chriskoz @8 yes I see your point, but the article I quoted did mention 15 disasters at more than one billion. It just looks to me like the guardian either copied this article at face value, not checking on a spreadsheet, or arrived at similar dubious looking thinking.
But its completely hard for me to understand why they say costs of Harvey is "to be determined" given wikipedia has articles detailing the costs. Maybe they are saying full costs aren't known yet or something.
The bottom line is $15 billion appears like a huge understatement.
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chriskoz at 07:47 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
nigelj@7,
If you import the table from your NOAA link to the spreadsheet with 2017 selected, you find out the total CPI-adjusted cost column be over $21 billion. So no, the mistaken "15 billion" figure does not come from there.
And the three 2017 hurricanes of most interest are listed there as TBD. While olders hurricanes, eg. Katrina at $161.3G, are listed even costlier than in my Wiki (which might be not CPI-adjusted).
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nigelj at 07:26 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
Chriskoz @5, well spotted. The following article shows how the 15 billion dollar figure was arrived at:
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2017
Please note a couple of things: they are talking about 15 billion dollars or 'exceeding' 15 billion dollars. It's also a list that includes a wide range of problems like forest fires, droughts and hurricanes, and two of the hurricanes were relatively small such as Irma, so probably only a billion dollars.
But I'm mystified why they apportion such a low cost to Hurricane Harvey, because according to your reference it is almost $200 billion,and is well known to be very devastating. So I dont know, but it's either an omission, or the media are deliberately understating the problem. This is all just all my quick impression, because I dont have much time to spend on the issue, but I was curious.
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chriskoz at 07:22 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
My typo @5 above. You can easily calculate that I meant Harvey to be "13 times more" (and not "30 times more") than So 30 times more.
Incidentally, the Wiki article I quoted, based on data by NOAA, also lists the total cost of 2017 seson:
The costliest season on record was 2017, with damage estimated in excess of $400 billion.
and that's the number Dana should have used in this OP.
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chriskoz at 07:09 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
A fragment in The Guardian (not reproduced hare):
America was hit by 15 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2017
That is wrong number. I remember Katrina herself cost over $100G, so I went and checked List of costliest Atlantic hurricanes where Harvey is listed first with almost $200G, most of it in US. So 30 times more than the amount listed, not to mention other 2 major hurricanes and events.
So the listed amount "15 billion-dollar" is some kind of mistake or confusion (does not appear a simple typo) that needs clarification.
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Aaron Davis at 06:27 AM on 3 January 2018CO2 limits won't cool the planet
"The annual global forcing from -15ppm ΔCO2 would today amount to 2,250e18j, an effect that is far from insignificant." Sorry I have again miss-read your statement. What is the source of this rather impressive figure. Is that per year over the entire globe? Would 15 ppm ΔCO2 be responsible for 18% of the entire annual global accumulation of energy of 12.5 ZJ/yr? That would be a remarkable result if it were true.
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nigelj at 06:24 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
I agree with OPOF that Roy Spencer doesn't give any real commentary on his climate website on el nino. Theres also not much the general issues of what temperature trends all mean. He has several sceptical views on climate science, although I don't know if he fits the denier category, but he sure seems to get close. His wikipedia profile is interesting.
RSS who also do temperature series for the troposphere, and give a much better discussion as below. However its important to realise the troposphere is not the surface, and the RSS people say its more important to look at nasa temerature trends which are at the surface. Roy Spencer makes no comment on such issues.
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nigelj at 06:08 AM on 3 January 2018On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming
OPOF @7, yes good points. As you say management sometimes pressure technical staff to act unethically. However its not always easy to just resign from a job if you have heavy family responsibilities, so I feel for people in this predicament.
However I resigned a job once partly because of huge pressure from the boss to basically break the law, and generally do unethical things. We were talking significant issues here, not petty or silly rules. The stress of this was getting to be a killer, it was just ethically wrong, and of course if I was caught I would be the person blamed.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:00 AM on 3 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #52
The 'harm' to others, particularly to future generations, from the continued burning of fossil fuels needs to become understood to be simply unacceptable. That needs to become the Common Sense around the world.
The defense that climate change impacts 'will not be that bad' should not be debated, other than to clearly state that creating any net-negative consequences for 'Others including future generations' is unacceptable, not an option.
'Balancing' the 'Positive current day benefits a portion of humanity get from the activity' with 'the negative consequences experienced by Others including future generations' is a fool's game, popular with pursuers of profitable Private Interests.
Claiming the defense that the results will not be catastrophic to others is like a gang-thug claiming that their shop-damaging or bone-breaking or in-fighting-with-other-gangs (or threats to do so) are OK because it isn't 'killing'.
The insideous measures of prosperity and success many economists deludedly follow will actually show 'positive results' as a result of the efforts required to 'get back to where things were before a disaster'.
There is profit to be made from disaster recovery, and from post-conflict re-building. And Naomi Klein wrote about many other ways that undeserving people can Win more Private Interest benefit from disasters in "The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism".
Pursuers of benefit from tragedy probably even hope to be able to personally profit from any increased magnitude of disaster resulting from rapid climate changes, including the increased civil conflict that will occur due to climate change (part of the reason the US Department of Defense includes climate change as a significant threat).
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nigelj at 05:37 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
Excellent article. We have a huge problem with false or misleading attacks on climate science. I thought this may have faded away by now, but if anything it is more entrenched, despite the logical and scientific absurdity of the positions. The science has lead to implications that disturb peoples world views and political positions, and vested interests, and people can become very stubborn when their world view is threatened.
Climate science is also complex, with many costs to society but a few possible small benefits, and this opens an unfortunate door to inane and misleading claims like "CO2 is plantfood" and the tiresome need to rebut these in an exercise like whack a mole.
However I agree with OPOF to some extent that the term "climate change denier" or just "denier" is indeed not really accurate, as most do accept the climate is changing. It also reminds me of accusing someone of being a witch, and will not persuade people to re-examine their beliefs, and will instead create hostility towards the warmist group. It always make me think of the novel 1984 for some reason..
I like OPOF's term "climate science denier". It's more accurate and concise and not quite as likely to create total hostility. It will mak epeople think a bit.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:13 AM on 3 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
nigelj@22,
The excuse of CO2 being plant food is indeed irrelevant (use the term 'a real nothingburger' if you are conversing with a Right-Winger and you want to poke-at-them).
- There was more than enough CO2 when levels were at 280 ppm.
- Any increased CO2 results in climate changes that cannot be accurately predicted but are certain to include negative consequences for future generations.
- A significant amount of the excess created CO2 is absorbed into the oceans creating negative consequences for future generations.
- Burning up of fossil fuels reduces the amount of that non-renewable resource that is available for future generations.
- There are many other negative current day and future consequences from the activities related to burning fossil fuels, including tragic conflicts excused for other reasons but clearly linked to desires to Win more Private Interest benefit from last gasp desperate attempts by 'knowing deliberate trouble-makers' to benefit as much as possible from the global burning of fossil fuels.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:54 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
Dr. Roy Spencer's Blog Post "UAH Global Temperature Update for December, 2017:" further exposes that he is either:
- a deliberate deciever/denier, well aware of the unacceptability of what he is doing
- or someone who is not well aware or is lacking a good understanding of things
He states that: "2017 ended up being the 3rd warmest year in the satellite record for the globally-averaged lower troposphere, at +0.38 deg. C above the 1981-2010 average, behind 1st place 2016 with +0.51 deg. C, and 2nd place 1998 at +0.48 deg. C."
All of that is technically accurate. But he fails to make any mention of the influence of the ENSO cycle on the satellite data results; He fails to attempt to make people more aware and better understand what is going on.
If "Technocognition" proposed in the Guardian article "Fake news is a threat to humanity, but scientists may have a solution" (re-posted on SkS) does get traction, would it flag Dr. Roy Spencer?
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:18 AM on 3 January 20182017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
I suggest expanding/changing the term "Climate Denial/Denier". That abbreviation is open to easy criticism. The intent is better described by "Denial/Denier of the developed and constantly improving awareness and understanding of climate science". If that fuller explanation seems too cumbersome, it can be stated once in an article followed by a harder to criticise abbreviation that is used in the balance of the item like: "...- Denial/Denier of Climate Science", or "...- Climate Science Denial/Denier".
Dr. Roy Spencer recently attempted to attack efforts to 'gain support for the awareness and understanding of climate science and the changes of human activity that it has exposed are required for humanity to develop a sustainable better future for all' by criticising some terms that have been used in that effort.
Dr. Roy's December 31, 2017 blog post "First Annual List of Banished Climate Change Terms" includes the term Climate Denier with the following criticism: "Climate Denier - How does one deny climate? Climate has always changed and always will. Maybe the intent is, “denier of catastrophic human-caused climate change”; if that’s the case, then I’m guilty as charged."
However, Dr. Roy exposes that he is either:
- a deliberate deciever/denier, well aware of the unacceptability of what he is doing
- or someone who is not well aware or is lacking a good understanding of things
because, in addition to abusing the term 'catastrophic human caused climate change' (used rather than being on his list of terms to banish), he uses the nothingburger term "nothingburger" as part of his feable rant against 'efforts to increase awaress and better understanding climate science and the changes of human activity that it has exposed are required for humanity to develop a sustainable better future for all'.
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Aanthanur at 04:13 AM on 3 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
140% should have been 100%+
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Aanthanur at 04:12 AM on 3 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
i never claimed it does not state a " very clear implicit endorsement"
the point is, it is not quantified.
so, it cannot be used for the evaluation of the consensus with 50% quantification. as it never states any quantification in the abstract.
i am not arguing about the real consensus today, i already said, i am in the 140% camp. that is what most of those with the most relevant expertise concluded. that is good enough for me.
i am just warning that one should not use Cook et al 2013 to try to show that there is a 97% consensus on MOST warming being anthropogenic since mif 20th century. their data shows a 87% consensus on that.
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Aaron Davis at 04:11 AM on 3 January 2018CO2 limits won't cool the planet
Yes, I have not carried out the simplistic calculations you allude to. Please tell me where I can find acceptable, relevant and sufficient data to support the notion that 2.250e18j per year of energy accumulation is attributed to CO2 concentrations since before the industrial revolution. Is this a simplistic calculation as you state as fact, or an artifact of a chaotic climate model, or an artifact from removing all other reasonable causes? Please be precise in your answer.
Regarding Insolation, we both have access to Monthly Latitude Insolation and a simplistic excel program you can use to reproduce the following assessment of the Other Effects (Aaron Davis @16). The Other Effect of Insolation increases from -4.308 Wm-2 in 1979 to +2.43 Wm-2 in 2017. This is the difference bewteen Antarctic Warm less Artic Warn, less the difference Antarctic Cold less Arctic Cold months. The positive slope of 0.18 Wm-2 is due principally to the 0.2% increase in spatial angle between vernal equinox and perihelion of the orbit, as you will see from the headings on the 2 tables. One way to remove this effect would be to limit the data to 2003 +/- 13 years.
Thank you for your continued interest and insight.
Moderator Response:[TD] Read the Intermediate tabbed pane, then the Advanced tabbed pane, here. Then read this post by Dana. Then this post by Michael Tobis. Then for details, read IPCC's AR5, Working Group 1, Chapter 10, Attribution.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:57 AM on 3 January 2018On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming
nigelj@4,
There is little difference between Engineers and Executives/Investors in their ability to be aware and understand what is actually going on; know what is helpful and what is harmful. In fact, the Executives and Wealthiest Investors have more capability (and responsibility), to be aware and understand what is actually going on. MBA students get an entire course on Ethics in most programs, and the courses lack case study examples of Good Ethical Leadership for obvious reasons.
The failure of Executives (and the likes of Economists and elected representatives wanting to please/appeal to Executives/wealthy people) to behave more responsibly is their choice to compete to Win in a game that allows unacceptable actions to be pursued rather than fighting to keep unacceptable actions from be allowed in the games (they fight against any regulation rather than fighting for effective Good Regulation. They claim that everyone freer to believe whatever they want and do as they please is the only way to develop Good Results).
An example of Engineers deliberately being like those Executives, failing to care about the unacceptability of their pursuit of Private Interest, is the VW diesel scam. Designing the computer to recognize the actions of an emissions test and run the engine differently under those conditions was almost certainly done by engineers who did not care about the ethics of what they did.
But the majority of the damaging 'errors' of engineering are due to pressure from superiors over engineers pressuring them to do unacceptable things because of Private Interest desires for things to be cheaper and quicker, like the tragedy of the O-Ring on the Space Shuttle. A more recet case may be the exploding air bad problem. The least safe design Won the comeptition to be the biggest supplier of airr bags (some engineers to blame, but a lot of executives clearly failed to protect the Interest of Public Good).
Everyone is protected when Good Reason governs actions, even the investors. Only a sub-set of humanity can temporarily regionally win personal Poor Excuse Private Interest (like the ones who won in the Enron scam). That is a part of the Ethical training I got in my MBA. What I observed was that many classmates were not concerned about fighting against unacceptable pursuits of Private Interest (I got my MBA in Alberta).
The problem is the inertia of a society that has over-developed unsustainable perceptions of prosperity and opportunity due to too much Poor Excuse Private Interest Winning. And a society that is raised to be easily impessed by temptations to be greedier and less tolerant of Others amplifies the inetria of an incorrectly over-developed group immersed in a diversity of unsustainable damaging Private Interest desires.
The undeserving wealthy and powerful behind the Unite the Right movements around the world can be seen to encourage people to be greedier and less tolerant and 'join their group and vote together for each other's understandably harmful unsustainable Private Interests'. To Win, Unite the Right groups have to do hostile take-overs (or mergers) of existing popular 'Conservative, Right-wing' entities to increase their chances. They do that to become the only choice for Their unkind likes, hoping to get the legacy votes of people who 'always vote conservative' or of people who will not bother to be aware and understand the changes that have occurred and the required corrections - people who fail to fight for the Good Conservative or Good Right-wing to Win - or people who may try to fight for Good but are willing to support Bad in the hopes of Winning the pursuit of their Private Interest. Canada saw Unite the Right at the Federal Level with the hostile elimination of the Progressive Conservative Party by the Reform Alliance so that the Reform allinace core of greedier and less tolerant people could get the legal right to call their party Conservative. In BC the Unite the Right too over the provincial Liberal Party. And recently in Alberta, the competing major right-wing parties merged to become the United Conservative Party.
The same can be seen to have happened in the USA, with the Tea Party being taken over by Harmful Private Interests and that successful perverted Tea Party being used as a minority controlling interest within the Republican Party, perverting the actions of the collective Republican Party. However, the USA system is more massively perverted by the power of misleading marketing. Even elected Democrats in regions susceptable to misleading marketing against them have voted against actions that would have limited fossil fuel burning. The damaging power of Bad Private Interests can easily cross Political Party name boundaries in a society that has allowed too many of its members to grow up 'mere children' (to paraphrase John Stuart Mill's warning).
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Eclectic at 23:11 PM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
Aanthanur @51/52 , the paper you quoted in post #48 was a paper by Uasuf and Becker, only 7 years ago — so at least it is within a decade of today !
As BaerbelW mentioned in post #50, the paper's Abstract was unambiguous about the importance of countering Global Warming. Indeed — that was stated at the start of the paper, in the very first sentence of the Abstract.
So the paper showed a very clear implicit endorsement of the importance of AGW.
And certainly by as recent a date as 7 years ago, it was entirely obvious to every informed objective scientist, that humans were the very-large-majority of the cause of Global Warming. (In fact, the sole cause of recent planetary warming.)
So, Aanthanur, the 100% human attribution of modern Climate Change . . . is nowadays the quantification default position of every scientific climate-related study.
Please tell your argumentative "friend", that for modern climate-related papers, the quantified and unquantified Abstracts are now effectively the same. Your friend is wasting his time on senseless trivialities — and he is harming you by wasting your time too.
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Aanthanur at 22:07 PM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
"If you prefer other definitions, feel free to conduct your own study and get it published."
i used the definitions used in the study. and one of the statements in the study is wrong by their own definition.
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Aanthanur at 22:05 PM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
Definition of Anthropogenic does not include any quantification. And the study itself rates this abstract as unquantified. thus, no way of knowing how much warming.
everyone that is honest to himself knows that the statement
"We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC, published over a 21 year period, in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW)."
is false, because they trow together quantified and unquantified abstracts.
the wording in the abstract works.
"Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.
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BaerbelW at 21:31 PM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
Aanthanur - that abstract states "[..]The development of cleaner and renewable energy sources are needed in order to reduce dependency and global warming. Wood pellets are a clean renewable fuel and has been considered as one of the substitutes for fossil fuels.[...]". With that wording it clearly falls under "3.1 Mitigation papers that examine GHG emission reduction or carbon sequestration, linking it to climate change" so, - under our documented rating guidelines - is an implicit endorsement of AGW (and it's called "anthropogenic" for a reason, namely for humans being the main and not just a "minor" or "one of many" causes).
If you prefer other definitions, feel free to conduct your own study and get it published.
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Aanthanur at 21:22 PM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
"impossible expectations"
not the case here, this is not an impossible expectation.
it is simply an error in a paper, and all it needs is change one sentence, that is not impossible.
all they have to do is Change the sentence
""We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC, published over a 21 year period, in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW).""
to
""We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC, published over a 21 year period, in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW)."
or just use Support Level 1 and 7 and have a 87% consensus.
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Aanthanur at 21:10 PM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
"12270,2011,3,3,Wood pellets production costs and energy consumption under different framework conditions in Northeast Argentina"
read the abstract, there is no way to know from the abstract aone if that study attributes 40% of the observed warming to anthropogenic source or if the attribute 140% of the observed warming to Anthropogenic sources of GHGs.
i did read everything avaible on this website on this. and i still thik it is wrong.
i also wrote to the jouranal. the wording is misleading.
yes the "expanded" the definition to include unquantified abstracts, but then they should have changed the sentence in the introduction that claim they evaluate the support for the more than 50% consensus.
i will use Verheggen 2014, they also came to the 87% conclusion. and include the important point about aerosol cooling that is masking parts of the warming.
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BaerbelW at 18:14 PM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
Aanthanur - if you haven't done so yet (which your recent comments seem to imply as they cover old and well-trodden grounds) please read KR's comment upthread from June 2014. If his first two paragraphs - esp. the mention of "exclusive choices" - don't clarify the rating guidelines for you, then nothing will and we can just as well stop any discussion right here.
If you haven't done so, you should also take the time to actually read all the information provided on the TCP-homepage I link to in my comment @40 above (which includes the various articles related to Cook et al. (2013) and subsequent studies).
It's been more then 4 1/2 years now since the paper was published and the likelihood to come up with something, which others haven't yet used to attack the paper with, is as close to zero as it can possibly get.
Basically, you seem to have been taken in by one of the characterstics of (climate) science denial which is "impossible expectations". The denialist you are referring to is playing word games with you while at the same time misunderstanding the rating guidelines himself (and it doesn't much matter if he does so intentionally or not).
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Aanthanur at 15:59 PM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
i do not hurt myself. what hurts me is when AGW deniers get ammunition, and it was a denier that pointed this out to me. and i had to agree.
but you seem to not care much about accuracy. i do care, i want to use accurate data. and Cook et al is not accurate.
and i hate to be debunked by deniers. and i guess others feel the same. hense my warning to other people debating AGW deniers.
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Lachlan at 13:43 PM on 2 January 2018On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming
nigelj @4, you are right that humanity responded well to the ozone problem. However, the vested interests were much smaller. The "refrigeration lobby", "aerosol lobby" and "fire extinguisher lobby" are no match for the fossil fuel lobby and the car lobby.
Reducing GHG emissions also requires much more explicit involvement from the general population, at least in terms of stopping using internal combustion engine vehicles and putting up with seeing renewable electricity generation.
I read someone saying that all of human civilisation until now is essentially "the fire age", since we used it for heat, light, defence, and (recently) transport and industrialisation. Saying that the transition from the fire age to the post-fire age is "more complex" than tweaking the chemical industry to find and produce "drop in" replacements for ozone depleting chemicals is a big understatement.
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nigelj at 12:56 PM on 2 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
The new scientist article below evaluates the CO2 is plantfood nonsense.
There are many problems with the plantfood idea, and only certain types of crops have improved yeilds of about 14%. This is best case scenario, so I think it is hardly going to revolutionise farming, or solve food scarcity problems, so in no way even comes close to justifying the risks of climate change. There are many safer alternatives for improved productivity of that magnitude or more.
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nigelj at 10:57 AM on 2 January 2018Fake news is a threat to humanity, but scientists may have a solution
MalAdapted @42, yes I observe all this all the time. I think you have just described fundamental differences between conservative and liberal mindset, with conservatives displaying trouble with nuance and ambiguity and probabilities. Liberal mind set has its own trouble at times.
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nigelj at 10:40 AM on 2 January 2018On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming
OPOF @4, its possibly also a difference of perspective. Professional engineers are trained with codes of ethics and understanding of environment. Practices are often partnerhip structures. Engineeres can be deregistered for breaking rules.
Large corporates tend to be guided by slightly different principles. Executives especially the CEO are more strongly driven by the profit motive rather than professional service, and they need to satisfy numerous people. They push the rules to the limits and beyond, sometimes, and codes of ethics are less prevalent and important, and aren't always binding.
It's this company structure that has to change from a narrow profit motive to a wider set of goals and responsibilities. It's that, or tougher government regulation, or environmental disaster.
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nigelj at 10:22 AM on 2 January 2018On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming
DrivingBy @2
"Democracies run on emotion, not science.....The protest movement of the era was mostly focused on leaving Cambodia to the Khmer, using drugs and rioting....The message from Science of what was then a readily avoidable issue was lost in the babble of immediate event. "
This is a good comment, however back at the time of the Khmer Rouge climate change was relatively unknown by the public and even politicians, so obviously they didn't ignore it deliberately. There was also probably not enough data to be sure it was becoming a reality. However this is no excuse for the oil companies to have downplayed the science.
However climate change is now competing for attention with other concerns which appear more immediate, in a superficial sense. But climate change is a bigger threat than much of the material which makes for screaming headlines.
Also consider humanity responded well to the ozone issue, without emotion and it didn't get lost among other issues. The difference is possibly that climate change is a more complex issue, and has become politicised. Unwinding this is what has to be done somehow.
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Eclectic at 09:47 AM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
Aanthanur @43/44 , if I may simplify the philosophical aspects :-
In this world, we have (A) the realities, (B) our human concepts of the realities, and (C) the language of words which we use to describe & handle the concepts.
The nexus between realities and concepts can be valid or poor . . . or even nonexistent. Likewise our words can be useful tools in "handling" concepts . . . but in some cases they can be a handicap, or even completely divorce us from understanding the appropriate concepts & underlying realities.
Aanthanur, I very much fear that you have allowed your "Motivated Reasoning" to lose you in a forest of words — and distract you from looking at the realities. The main game is the reality of a rapidly warming Earth : ice melting, sea level rising, oceans acidifying, surface temperature rising . . . all in a harmful way (and with worse to come). And the causation of it all, is clear.
The "consensus" connects us to the scientific understanding of the [AGW] . . . and you harm yourself by diverting your mental focus toward a forest of verbal trivialites.
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Mal Adapted at 09:24 AM on 2 January 2018Fake news is a threat to humanity, but scientists may have a solution
I'm baffled by the confidence displayed by both deniers of anthropogenic global warming and conspiracists. What follows may be sloganeering, but I'm taking the chance on fooling myself that it isn't ;^).
As the son of a science professor, educated in the public schools of a university town, I came early to regard science first and foremost as a way of trying not to be fooled ("The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool." -R Feynman). Half a lifetime later, it's still all too easy to fool me, but AFAICT AGW deniers aren't even trying. They make no serious effort to distinguish real from fake news, because they fail to acknowledge how easy it is to fool them.
Conspiracist AGW-deniers, especially, seem uncomfortable with ambiguity, and readily succumb to the appeal of certainty. They may be wrong, but at least they're sure, and they don't 'do' nuance!
Genuine skeptics, OTOH, learn to quantify ambiguity, and give up on absolute certainty. They are willing to consider action based on what's most likely, despite known unknowns, and with awareness of the potential role for self-aggrandizement. Non-specialists may lack effective skills to evaluate genuine expertise; but why would a soi-disant 'global warming skeptic' be suspicious of working climate scientists, and no at least as suspicious of anyone else?
IOW: yes, it's remotely possible AGW is a 190-year-old hoax, but it's more likely the conspiracists are fooling themselves.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:53 AM on 2 January 2018On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming
This is more proof that Winners/Leaders anywhere in the world today have absolutely no excuse for claims that they doubt the validity of climate science or the changes that it has identified are required for humanity to have a future that actually has a chance of being better.
I have long been aware of the unacceptability of Private Interests such as pursuits of profit from the global burning of fossil fuels.
This article pushes back the date when leaders pursuing benefit from that activity could claim to be unaware of the likely harmful future consequences of their ultimately unsustainable Private Interest pursuit of benefit from pushing for increased burning of fossil fuels, rather than pushing for the rapid development of, and transition to, ways of living that were actually sustainable; economic development that actually had a chance of being sustained and grown.
And the 1972 Stockholm Conference including CO2 from fossil fuel burning as one of the many major global concerns to be collectively corrected makes any claim since that time by a 'leader/winner pursuing more benefit from the global burning of fossil fuels attempting to deny that they appreciated how damaging their Private Interest was' even less justified.
And that ability of the Winners/Leaders to deny awareness and understanding of the problem was categorically shut down in 1987 when the the UN report "Our Common Future" was published with the following clear statement highlighting the real problem in its opening section:
"25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management."Clearly, the many problems are developed by pursuit of a 'Better Personal Present (Private Interest)' at the expense of 'Developing the Gift of A Better Future for All Others (Gloabl Public Interest)'.
And the 2015 publication of the UN Sustainable Development Goals further reinforces the fact that no current day Winner/Leader has any credible basis to deny the understandable required corrections of incorrectly over-developed perceptions of prosperity and opportunity. The need for many current day Winners/Leaders to swiftly Lose/Be Demoted is undeniable. Unjustified efforts to minimize the Losses of such people are easy to spot, and the success of those efforts expose the failing of things like Democracy and Rule of Law to effectively limit the damage done by unacceptable actors in the games of competition to appear to Win Relative to Others that humans allow to be played.
Popularity and Profitability based games can clearly develop extremely Harmful results if people with Private Interests that are contrary to the Sustainable Development Goals are allowed to compete to Win (they have an unjustified competitive advantage - especially when misleading marketing messages that appeal to or excuse harmful things like greed and intolerance can be gotten away with).
I included a variation of the following in my recent comment on the "Fake news is a threat to humanity, but scientists may have a solution" OP.
As an engineer with an MBA whenever I am presented with an existing item that 'appears to need to be fixed or corrected' my first step is to ensure I identify/understand the fundamental basis of the problem. I also make sure that any correction is consistent with the overall guiding objective of engineering to protect the general population (Others) and the environment (today and into the future) from the potential negative consequences of what a pursuer of Private Interest may try to get away with. That objective is well aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. Unfortunately many engineering actions (and political actions) have that objective diminished by 'being balanced with Private Interests that are contrary to that objective (less safe, more harmful). My MBA training in the 1980s helped me understand and witness how motivated many classmates pursuing an MBA were to Win their competition for Private Interests any way they could get away with.
Being guided by that awareness and understanding has led me to disappoint many clients/customers who have identified that their desire is 'to get something done quicker or cheaper'. Admittedly, developing the most advantageous solution to a challenge is an objective of engineering. But responsible considerate engineering (moral/ethical engineering) always has to severely limit the potential for negative Public/Environmental consequences (at the expense of the customer). When I point out the time and cost required to ensure the Quality of the engineered result there is often a claim that my job is to make them happy because 'the customer is always correct'. My response has been to pursue 'correcting the customer' to make sure the customer is actually correct. That often requires support from superiors who must be aligned with the understanding of how everyone is protected when such customers get corrected.
The bottom line is: If the fundamental cause of the problem is not identified, or if the 'fix' is not aligned with protecting the Public/Environment into the future, then any 'fix' will not be sustainable. It will only appear to repair what appeared to be broken. There will likely be future failure because the real problem was not identified and corrected.
If someone like me can be aware of and understand that, any person at a higher level of authority and responsibility should have no ability to claim they were 'less aware, just didn't understand the unacceptability of what was going on'.
The lack of effective limiting of competitors actions to things that can be proven to support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals is a damaging failure; a barrier to advancing humanity to economic and political leadership activity to develop truly sustainable rules of law and economic activity that are able to be improved to develop an even more beneficial future for all of humanity.
Pursuers of Private Interests that are contrary to achieving any of the Sustainable Development Goals mus be seen as a threat to the future of humanity, no matter how regionally temporarily popular or profitable they may be.
Some of the wealthy and powerful clearly do not deserve to be seen to be Winners. Their actions related to the Climate Action Goals (and other Sustainable Development Goals), can be the basis for positively identifying and effectively dealing the unworthy winners, the harmful trouble-makers, the threats to the development of a better future of humanity.
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chriskoz at 07:43 AM on 2 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
Jeff H@20,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge of ecological adaptation to us.
To help me, non-expert in your field, to better understand it, please xplain how the availability of N as nutrient to the plants has changed with changing climate. I think not all plants can assimilate it from air where N is main ingredient. But those that do (e.g. beans) have no problems and are unnafected. How are the others affected? By changed composition of the soil which becomes depleted of N carrying compountds? Do you see any local climate treands around the world that affect local ecology by depleting N as nutrient?
And why do you think amazon rainforrests are lately becoming C source?
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DrivingBy at 06:04 AM on 2 January 2018On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming
We (the US and Europe) are (mostly) democracies. Democracies run on emotion, not science. That was rather helpful when countenancing whether we should have expanded Aktion T4 to a global extent (there was a little dust-up over that sort of issue), it's not so helpful in dealing with a substance whose only hazard can be discerned only via science.
Dictatiorships of one form or another run on thirst for expanding and retaining power, they are even less concerned with such issues. Iran, Mexico etc have not volunteered to cut their oil exports, much the contrary.
Teller was entirely correct and was entirely ignored. In the USA, LBJ accepted a more detail report and estimates from Keeling et.al, but did not act on it. The protest movement of the era was mostly focused on leaving Cambodia to the Khmer, using drugs and rioting. There appears to have been even less interest in the issue from other nations.
The message from Science of what was then a readily avoidable issue was lost in the babble of immediate event. It will not be the last time.
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nigelj at 06:03 AM on 2 January 2018On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming
Astonishing history, and no chinese names as far as I can see. The early rough calculations from people like Teller and Arrhenius have been very perceptive, and an excellent validation of agw theory. if predictions work, it is a powerful validation of a theory.
Despite this the fossil fuel industry remains in denial. Of course the fossil fuel industry say they accept the climate problem, but this is a veneer of respectability, because the real denialism has been out sourced to groups like the Heartland Institute.
The fossil fuel industry have done basically nothing about the problem, other than tinkering around the edges to make it look like action, while lobbying against ets schemes. Leaders of industry and sharholders still mostly put profit and pushing the limits and boundaries ahead of everything else.
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Aanthanur at 05:32 AM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
I picked just one randomly, the specific paper is rather irelevant, if old or if correct or not, what matters is, if it has a quantified attribution in the abstract.
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Aanthanur at 05:24 AM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
"Aanthanur fails to recognize that categories 1 - 3 all endorse the scientific consensus "
what is the scientific consensus?
they use different definitions in the paper.
"Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming."
"We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC, published over a 21 year period, in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW)."
one is quantified, the other not.
you cannot use unquantified abstracts to evaluate the support for the consensus as defined in the introduction, the one in the abstract yes.
and i have no problem with a 97% consensus. or 99%. the data used in this study, is not supporting one of the two definitions given in the paper.
i do not doubt AGW in the least, AGW is an observed fact.
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Eclectic at 04:53 AM on 2 January 201897% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
I note that Aanthanur @41 subsequently went on to cite as example the paper Beyea et al. 1991.
But Beyea very clearly states implicit support for the mainstream science of AGW. And thus the paper goes more correctly into "Category 3" — and yet Aanthanur fails to recognize that categories 1 - 3 all endorse the scientific consensus (contributing to the quoted 97%).
The Beyea et al. paper is all the more remarkable for being published in 1991. Being 26 years ago, and at the start of the survey period.
Since that time, the consensus position, already extremely strong, has gone on to become even stronger (and has no valid challenges to it). So Aanthanur's preoccupation with allocation to category 1, 2, or 3 . . . is a complete waste of time.
Furthermore, Aanthanur displays unawareness that the Cook et al. 2013 paper provides a double validation of the 97% consensus (authors gave a self-rating of their own papers — and the self-ratings verified the 97%).
It should also be noted that the average age of the papers in the Cook survey, is now around 10 years old. With the march of time and further evidence, a renewed survey would show consensus above 99%.
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Jeff H at 21:35 PM on 1 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
I really was not inclined to enter this thread until Zippi62 insisted on making a ludicrous argument about C02 not being a pollutant.
In excessive concentrations any element can be deemed thusly. The current biodiversity evolved under relatively low atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Indeed, there is compelling evidence that species and genetic richness across the biosphere were higher quite recently until Homo sapiens began to carve its way through ecosystems across the planet. The bottom line is that high atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are NOT a pre-requisite for high adaptive radiation. Other eco-physiological factors are infinitely more important including paradoxially both stability and change.
As for increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 the net effect will be a significant reduction in diversity even if warming is excluded. This is because there will be decidedly non-linear effects of increased CO2 concentrations on plants and their associated consumers. Some plants will benefit at CO2 increases but many will not - this critically depends on the carbon pathway (C3, C4, ethylene) and how this leads to competitive asymmetries among plant communities. In other words the long evolutionary stasis that occurs under fairly stable abiotic regimes is being seriously undermined by the current athropogenic experiment. So phenology and non-linear dynamics is something that climate change contrarians continually ignore. This is because most of them don’t appear to have the reoevant expertise.
Then there is stoichiometry. Plants require more than carbon for optimal growth. Indeed C is by now essentially ‘junk’ in that it may accrue as biomass but this in no way creates healthier, fitter plants if vital nutrients like N and P are shunted out of plant tissues. In the Amazon there is even evidence now that most vegetation has reached a saturation point and that these forests are no longer sinks but sources of C. But I digress. N is generally much more limiting as a nutrient than C. The loss of N is already having significant consequences up the food chain. Most consumers, in particular herbivores, depend on N in their diet. Given that plant food is highly suboptimal to begin with, containing an array of allelochemicals, digestibility reducers, tannins, resins and other non-nutritive components, the loss of vitally important N from plants will lead to compensatory feeding by herbivores as they seek to acquire sufficient N. To compound the problem many plants possess N-based defenses; these plants are under the great rusk of becoming less well-defended from their antagonists as atmospheric concetrations of N rise rapidly. By contrast, plants with C-based defenses become much more toxic. Again, those repeating this silly mantra of ‘C is plant food’ continually expunge complex non-linear ecophysiological processes from their rhetoric. In their world, cause-and-effect relationships are linear, but complex adaptive systems just do not function in that way.
I am a population ecologist whose research involves the effects of primary and secondary plant metabolism on plant-insect interactions, and I continually cringe when I see this fatally flawed argument extolling the wonders of increasec atmospheric CO2 on nature dredged up. Few if any of those making this argument are qualified in the relevant fields.
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nigelj at 15:43 PM on 1 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
Zippi62 @20
"You are believing unfounded projections by overzealous environmentalists. "
No I just accept the peer reviewed research and IPCC science. I'm not into deep green environmentalism, although its preferable to the denialist blather.
You are sucked in by blogsites like Wattsup and iceagenow. These websites are emotive, politically driven, and make outrageous, stupid, inflammatory claims and huge cherry picks.
"There's not one person I know that wants to destroy our planet. "
So they claim. Know people by their actions and policies: Donald Trump for example.
"There's much more science out there that disproves the "limits" mantra."The Arctic Sea Ice Extent is currently in a heavy increase period.'
One year means nothing. Natural variation. The trend over the last 50 years approximately is far more important, and is of reducing sea ice cover and also thickness. Again, its one of those aspects of climate change that is incredibly well documented, and with increasing temperatures it can only get worse, unless you believe that higher temperatures cause water to freeze?
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nigelj at 15:33 PM on 1 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
"The EPA failed when they labelled CO2 as a "dangerous pollutant".
Really? The finding still stands in law and is unlikely to be changed. This doesnt look like failure to me.
"SKS also fails its own readers with its 'climate myth' about CO2 being a dangerous pollutant.
his website doesnt actually use that language. The language used is by the EPA. As far as I can tell this website just raises the normal concerns about CO2. Remember the EPA used those words dangerous pollutant in a legalistic sense, dont get too hung up on them, we know what they mean CO2 is a problem. Its not woryth all the energy debating whether its a pollutant or problem.
"SKS should redact many of its erroneous implications about CO2 in my opinion. Much of it is scientific conjecture."
I dont think so. The basics of climate science are well established science, not conjecture. Opinions like yours without some actual commentary, credible sources and understanding of the relevant basic science are pretty empty. Not saying you are badly educated, and happy new year and all that.
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nigelj at 15:15 PM on 1 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
Zippi62 @15
"I get what you are saying. Humans are evil and produce excessive amounts of CO2."
No, never said that. But some humans persist with bad habits even when they know they are bad habits.
"Every plant hates excessive amounts, even if those excessive amounts makes them less prone to droughts, more rigid, ..."
Maybe so to some extent, but the trouble is any advantages of extra CO2 in cell growth come up against limits, and are offset by the effects of higher temperatures that start to reduce cell growth and crop productivity particularly after 2050, and you have all the other negative effects of climate change, such as as sea level rise. The costs of climate change outweigh any benefits by a huge factor. This website has done numerous related articles, start reading them.;
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nigelj at 15:06 PM on 1 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
Zippi62@ 14
"Microphysics works with a proper analogy. Added carbon into the atmosphere can be a good thing as long as the proper analysis is applied"
Meaningless unsupported assertion.
" Carbon dioxide is not toxic and is very essential to most all living things."
Meaningless straw man argument. Nobody has claimed CO2 is poisonous in the way CO is poisonous. Merely that the build up of CO2 recently is causing dangerous climate change.
Various minerals are also essential to plant growth, but too much can kill the things.
We are bored with all these silly, weak denialist claims that are all such obviously nonsense. Can't you do better? Climate denialists are such losers.
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Zippi62 at 14:59 PM on 1 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
nigelj @13
I get what you are saying. Humans are evil and produce excessive amounts of CO2. Every plant hates excessive amounts, even if those excessive amounts makes them less prone to droughts, more rigid, and require less water to survive. The animals that eat those plants get more carbohydrates into their own system. More carbohydrates are always good. It's basic sustenance.
Moderator Response:[JH] Snide, argumentative, and false assertions snipped. Your willful and repeated violations of the SkS Comments Policy means you have relinquished your privilege of posting on this venue.
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Digby Scorgie at 14:54 PM on 1 January 2018From the eMail Bag: Carbon Isotopes, Part 2: The Delta Notation
chriskoz @5, David @6
Thanks for the help. So the idea is simple, but the computation is difficult. Science is not easy!
factotum @7
Please don't confuse us. It's "too much", not "to much".
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Zippi62 at 14:52 PM on 1 January 20182017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
Microphysics works with a proper analogy. Added carbon into the atmosphere can be a good thing as long as the proper analysis is applied.
When insufficient oxygen is applied to combustion, then carbon monoxide is produced, which is a highly toxic gas. Carbon dioxide is not toxic and is very essential to most all living things.
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