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Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
billev - "...there appears to be a discernable pattern in the temperature change in the form of similar length alternating periods of continuous warming and pauses in warming. I then have concluded that if this pattern were to continue..."
You see a cyclic pattern, those who actually investigate the physics see that the various forcings have changed over the last 1.5 centuries, with temperatures following those forcings with some weather variability. See CO2 is not the only driver of climate, as you were referred to some time ago, and read it. Actual physics rule climate, billev, not numerology.
"I believe that the continuous warming period that began around 1974 actually continued until about 2002 and this can be more easily seen if the temperature sapike of 1998 is ignored."
Statistical analysis of the trends, not to mention changepoint analysis, show that you utterly wrong on this point. There is _no_ statistically significant change in trend around 2002. And making claims from such a short period simply demonstrates that you aren't using any statistical analysis whatsoever.
" I am also suspicious of the motivation of government climate scientists... This appears to me to be an attempt to mislead not inform."
And... now the conspiracy theories. Sorry, billev, but I consider you a hopeless case of climate science denial.
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JWRebel at 02:41 AM on 24 March 2016How to inoculate people against Donald Trump's fact bending claims
While not in disagreement with what you say, I would vote for Trump simply on the basis of my worst fears, which are about US foreign policy. The whole field of Republican candidates has been a competition about who is the greatest war monger. Trump is the only one who thinks he can get along with Putin, pull out of entanglements such as US support for ISIS, and make deals with other countries. That sounds a lot better to me than pushing Russia into nuclear war [don't forget NATO is conducting exercises on the Russian border, 100 km from St. Petersburg, and expanding its missiles and pre-emptive strike doctrine]. I see Trump as the most conciliatory and least violent in this regard.
The democratic party also went full-bore on homeland security, Iraq, drone killings, etc. Hillary terrifies me in this regard, willing to sacrifice any number of people to meet her targets.
Once in office, Trump will want to succeed. He will listen to advisers, and quicly learn about the real world. If he can get over his ideological instincts, he may even learn that climate change is not just a leftist thing and that solar is a good business proposition — his comments up till now seem not to go much further than people who exclaim: "Where's that global warming when you need it!" as they wait for a bus in the cold wind.
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billev at 02:06 AM on 24 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
I did not introduce CO2 into this discussion so I would like to return to my original point. first, though, I would like to say that providing the tonnage of CO2 in the atmosphere might make that presence seem large and significant but not when you cmpare that figure to the tonnage of the atmosphere. Then the small presence of CO2 becomes clear. My original idea was to state that the global temperature history, as presented in the NOAA graphs, appears to show that there has not been continuous global warming since 1880. Also that there appears to be a discernable pattern in the temperature change in the form of similar length alternating periods of continuous warming and pauses in warming. I then have concluded that if this pattern were to continue then tentative predictions of future temperature change could be made. My point about ignoring temperature spikes and drops associated with short term events considered the fact that including these events in temperature assessments could cause confusion. For example, there were those that argued that there had been no rise in temperature since 1998, an El Nino year that appeared as a temperature spike on the graph. However, I believe that the continuous warming period that began around 1974 actually continued until about 2002 and this can be more easily seen if the temperature sapike of 1998 is ignored. I further think that a propensity to try to mask the pause periods by drawing trend lines from various years to various years in an attempt to indicate that global warming is continuous is harmful to climate science. I am also suspicious of the motivation of government climate scientists who publicly focus on the temperature of individual years or small groups of years, particularly when the temperatures for these years are those influenced by a short term climate event like El Nino. This appears to me to be an attempt to mislead not inform.
Moderator Response:[TD] Your comments here about the amount of CO2 being too small are out of place. You need to put those comments on the CO2 Is a Trace Gas thread.
Your other comments seem to be mere repetition of your earlier assertions, without any indication of you having read any of the comments responding to you, nor you having read the other posts you were pointed to. The Skeptical Science comments are for discussion. If you continue to fail to actually discuss, your comments will be deleted for violating the commenting policy's prohibition of "sloganeering."
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:46 AM on 24 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
bozzza @11,
I am not sure of your life learning, but I am an Engineer with an MBA who has been living in Alberta and observing the political and business activity in and from that region for decades.
The following is another way of presenting my comment @12:
It would be far easier to find and present a case studies showing that the free actions of players in the marketplace (and their ability to get political leadership to allow and support less acceptable pursuits of benefit and reward) have been barriers to the advancement of humanity (advancing humanity to a lasting better future for all as sustainable parts of the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet), than it would be to present a case study that supports the theory that the free action of players in the marketplace (of popularity and profitability) has developed a lasting advancement of humanity.
However, it would be possible to develop a case study in support of the theory that the free action of players in the marketplace (of popularity and profitability) has developed a lasting advancement of humanity. And the following would need to be done to develop and most effectively present that case study:
- Try to redefine the measure of success to be some less relevant “Measure of growth of something that seems like improvement, even if it could be fundamentally unsustainable or would mask inequity like 'Total Wealth or GDP'.
- Seek out an example to present as the case proving the point. It would still be challenging to find a good case to support the claim that the free actions of people resulted in achieving the less relevant definition of advancement (in many cases government regulation and enforcement contrary to the desires of players in the marketplace actually led to the result). It would be very difficult to find a case that could prove such actions resulted in a truly lasting advancement of humanity.
- The chosen case study would require some message massaging to create the appearance that it was truly a lasting advancement of humanity and had been the result of players in the marketplace being free to do as they please. And to improve the 'selling success' of the message it would probably include some points to trigger a temptation for self-interest such as greed and try to discredit anyone who would present a contradicting claim.
- A person whose credentials appear to indicate they would be an expert in the field would need to be selected to 'pitch' the case study to reduce the number of people who would question and further investigate the validity of claim.
- And all of the above wold need to be done while deliberately ignoring or excusing all the other information encountered that contradicts the case that is attempting to be made.That sequence of actions should be familiar. They are very similar to the actions required to most successfully argue against the developing better understanding of climate science and the resulting need for already more fortunate people to be stopped from “freely choosing to fight to get away with getting more reward and benefit from the burning of fossil fuels”.
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Hans Petter Jacobsen at 22:44 PM on 23 March 2016Tracking the 2°C Limit - February 2016
The carbon budgets was the main issue in my @25. The budget for 1.5 °C warming may soon be exhausted, perhaps when we still focus on the ups and downs in the temps. And the budget for 2 °C warming may be exhausted before the temperature has risen 1.5 °C. CDIAC publishes data for the carbon emissions on a yearly basis, and the data for 2014 was published some months ago. These data has up till 2014 been very stable and predictable, maybe due to the inertia in our economic system, infrastructure etc. It may be difficult to make a newsworthy plot every month showing the carbon emissions and the carbon budgets. But maybe the issue of carbon budgets should be mentioned when we show how the temps approach the 1.5 and 2 °C limits ?
Rob @26, in your December 2015 update you show a plot with the full ONI (Ocean Nino Index) data going back to 1950. The plot shows the La Ninas following the El Ninos in 1998 and 2010. During these La Ninas the global surface temperature fell below the long term trend line, as shown in the plot below. The plot is similar to the main plot in your February 2016 update, but it is zoomed in to see the details after 1997.
I think we should expect something similar for the next La Nina. Then the contrarians will probably focus on the decline in the monthly temperatures and in the 12 months running average, and we will get a new version of the 'No warming in the last nn years' myth. We somehow legitimize their future wrongdoing by now focusing too much on the warm temps in the current El Nino.
In my opinion the field 'Current 12 m avg' in the upper left part of your plot could be replaced with 'Trend line current month'. That would focus on the long term trend, and it would make future versions of your plot more informative when the temps drop below the trend line, which they hopefully will do for 50 % of the future months. The current value of the long term trend line will vary slowly, but the 12 months running average and the red circle around the temp in the last month will retain the newsworthiness of the plot. (I know that others disagree with me, partly because 'Trend line current month' would require more explanation and would be more difficult to understand. It means the value of the 30 year linear trend line at the current month.)
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One Planet Only Forever at 15:19 PM on 23 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
bozzza@11,
There is ample evidence supporting my explanation of what is going on in marketplaces. Your claim and faith in the marketplace appears to only be a preferred belief, lacking actual proof.
In most cases a potentailly beneficial development that people attempt to claim is due to market action, is actually the result of government intervention which regrettably usually only happens when the damaging failure of the marketplace to actually advance humanity has become too massive to excuse or ignore.
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bozzza at 12:24 PM on 23 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
@ 8,
Markets are meant to be robust. All markets are governed and a coral bleaching event of sustained significance will change the intervened free-hand one way or the other.
Richie Rich provides what is needed: his enterprise is rewarded but always collared!
The stock market may look anarchic but like any gambling event there are players in charge!
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denisaf at 11:27 AM on 23 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
This discussion about irreversible rapid climate change and ocean acidification and warming is misleading because it conveys the impression that it is the result of human activity. The reality is that it is the result of the operation of the technical systems of industrialized civilization. These systems are irreversibly using up the limited natural material resources and are irrevocably aging. Climate change is a serious consequence of that process but it is not the only one that society will have to try to deal with as the natural resources run out.
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Tom Curtis at 08:42 AM on 23 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
billev @20 ignores the substance of the article to which he was referred, concentrating instead on a single paragraph which mentions what we know rather than presenting evidence for it. Again, this is an attempt by him to protect his beliefs from evidence. His specific claim was that:
"I have a difficult time believing that carbon dioxide at one part in 2500 parts of atmosphere has any role that influences the global temperature. There is just not enough there there."
The argument that "x exist only in trace amounts, therefore x has no influence" that he relies on is rebutted by numerous counter-examples in the "CO2 is a trace gas" article. Those counter-examples show that his conclusion does not follow from his premises, and that his argument simply amounts to an argument from personal incredulity. The use of such an argument, and his response to its clear rebutal shows yet again that he is not open to changing his mind.
For the open minded, the fact that CO2 influences the Earth's climate is sufficiently well established that doubting it is the intellectual equivalent of considering the Earth to be flat. That is because it is known for a fact that CO2 alters the rate at which energy can escape to space across certain frequencies. Because of that, and because the energy escaping to space must equal the energy ariving from space for equilibrium, that means either that the Earth must be warmer to increase the energy escaping in other frequencies, or that the Earth's albedo must increase to reduce incoming energy to match the reduced outgoing energy. As it happens, the former is the easier to achieve, and what in fact happens.
As noted, the reduction in outgoing energy is a fact, observed in downward looking IR observations such as this one, observed over Texas in 1969:
billev's argument from personal incredulity amounts to the claim that the large, CO2 induced reduction in outgoing emissions around a wavelength of 15 microns does not exist because 'there is just not enough there there'. Or perhaps he believes that conservation of energy only applies to effects caused by compounds that exist in greater than trace amounts.
As a side note, I recently calculated the mass of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Currently it is approximately 848 billion tonnes, having increased by 254 billion tonnes since the preindustrial due to human activity. Thus I can rephrase billev's argument. It is that 848 billion tonnes of a compound obviously cannot influence the climate because 'there is just not enough there there'. LMAO
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barry1487 at 07:21 AM on 23 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
Tamino has a take on this. Surprising, but not shocking.
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MA Rodger at 06:50 AM on 23 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
billev @20.
When you tell us "I have read the referenced CO2 paper and am not impressed," are you referring to the SkS 'CO2 is just a trace gas' item? If so, do be aware that it's not really a "paper" and its purpose is not to set out the relationship between CO2 and warming. Rather its purpose is to demonstrate that a small proportion of something like a 'trace gas' can have a big impact. You were referred to this particular SkS item specifically because you proclaimed @11 "I have a difficult time believing that carbon dioxide at one part in 2500 parts of atmosphere has any role that influences the global temperature. There is just not enough there there." So so, if it was the 'trace gas' item you read, are you now happier with the idea that trace elements can be powerful?
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billev at 05:20 AM on 23 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
I have read the referenced CO2 paper and am not impressed. To maintain that CO2 levels have increased while global temperatures have increased thus the rise in CO2 has caused the rise in global temperature is a weak argument. It dismisses all other possibile causes for the global warming without so much as a discussion and it does not address the fact that while CO2 has steadily increased there has not been continuous warming. It also does not contain any references to testing to see how much radiated heat the current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is, in fact, retaining.
Moderator Response:[TD] The greenhouse gas effect of CO2 is based on fundamental physics knowledge. Read "How Do We Know More CO2 Is Causing Warming?" Read the Basic tabbed pane, then the Intermediate one, then the Advanced one. Don't just skim. If you have questions about that post, ask them there, not here.
CO2's effect on global temperature was projected many decades before it was even technically possible to measure the global temperature, and then was confirmed by observations. So the correlation came after the projection. You really need to get a grounding in the foundations. I suggest you read physicist and science historian Spencer Weart's Discovery of Global Warming, which is available online for free.
Regarding other influences on temperature, see CO2 Is Not the Only Driver of Climate. Read the Basic and the Intermediate tabbed panes.
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John Hartz at 02:48 AM on 23 March 20162016 SkS Weekly Digest #12
chriskoz & knaugle:
I also have mixed feelings about the primary message of the Toon. The fact that climate science deniers abhor being labeled a "denier" suggest to me that the cartoonist meant it be a put down of climate science deniers.
Thanks for paying attention and providing feedback.
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John Hartz at 02:07 AM on 23 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
Recommended supplemental reading:
The Next Great Global Warming ‘Hiatus’ Is Coming! by Ethan Siegel, Starts with a Bang, Forbes, Mar 16, 2016
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:35 AM on 23 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
bozzza@5,
I am skeptical of the marketplace 'reacting to any developing better understanding of what is required to advance all of humanity to a lasting better future'.
The way the 'marketplace' has reacted to the better understanding of the unacceptability of already fortunate people continuing to get benefit from the burning of fossil fuels is clear proof that the 'current popular and profitable for some' marketplace driven by popularity and profitability is in many cases a destructive barrier to the advancement of humanity.
The biggest problem is clearly the way that misleading marketing can promote less acceptable action plans that are 'temporarily' more profitable and rewarding for a portion of the entirety of humanity (the entirety includes future humans) for as long as they can be gotten away with.
Less acceptable is almost always quicker and cheaper (or less acceptable choices like pursuing violent actions like invasion or promoting rebellion in other regions being potentially more successful actions). Therefore, the most profitable and popular activity 'winning in the marketplace' is likely to be the least acceptable activity that can be gotten away with. And misleading marketing is a proven significant factor in prolonging and even expanding activity that can be understood to not be advancing humanity to a lasting better future for all on this or any other amazing planet (political misleading marketing clearly being potentially more damaging than commercial misleading marketing, but commercial misleading marketing paired with misleading political marketing being clearly being the greatest weapon of mass destruction ever created).
Humanity's only real future is through figuring out how all of humanity can live decently as sustainable parts of the robust diversity of life. Humans trying to thrive or survive solely through technological advancement succeeding in the marketplace of popularity and profitability clearly have no future.
Faith in the 'marketplace' advancing humanity to a sustainable better future is obviously misplaced, especially when misleading marketing promoting self-interest can succeed in drumming up popular support against the advancement of humanity.
The global warming case is only one of many clear cases of the obvious fatal failings of the 'fabled invisible-handed marketplace drive by self-interested and likely misleading pursuers of what they want to get away with' that is promoted as something that must be revered, something that can never be questioned no matter how much evidence there is proving that believing in it is foolish.
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scttharding5 at 00:04 AM on 23 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
I think that the current surface temperature spike that has been caused by AGW and a strong El Nino is an opportunity for the scientific community to convince many people here in the U.S. that climate change is a real threat. However, caution is required due to the probability that surface temps over the next few years will be somewhat lower than 2015-2016. Scientists and activists should use this time of heightened interest and awareness to explain to the general public the importance of ocean warming and overall heat content.
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knaugle at 22:36 PM on 22 March 20162016 SkS Weekly Digest #12
#1Then again, the cartoon satirizes climate deniers who no matter what happens will always say something like "Well, I expected that, no big deal"
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CBDunkerson at 21:59 PM on 22 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
dagold, the problem is that we have a much clearer picture of the, for example, 1951-1980 baseline, than we do of the 'pre-industrial' value... especially given that 'pre-industrial' itself is an inexact term.
Given that 'pre-industrial' in this case really means 'before atmospheric CO2 levels started climbing rapidly' I'd think that would be the place to start. Between 1800 and 1850 atmospheric CO2 went from ~280 ppm to ~288 ppm. That's actually a fairly rapid increase rate in comparison to past events, but nothing compared to the rate since 1850. Thus, that time period or a little earlier would seem to be the proper baseline. Unfortunately, our instrumental temperature record prior to 1850 is extremeley limited. That time also happens to coincide with the 'little ice age', when there was some degree of cooling (particularly in NW Europe where most of the few temperature records we do have were taken) likely due to low solar output and/or vulcanism. Hence the difficulty of getting a clear 'pre-industrial baseline'.
Still, I agree. The various climate summits should long ago have settled on some reasonable standard estimate for the 'pre-industrial' temperature. Without that, the 'limits' they seek to avoid cannot even be computed... by a few outlier accountings, 1.5 C had already come and gone before the Paris pledge to try to avoid it.
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barry1487 at 20:23 PM on 22 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
I read his first few yesterday and responded to them yesterday. Don't have a photographic memory, unfortunately.
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Tom Curtis at 19:12 PM on 22 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
barry @16, as you have now read his billev's first comment, and will get to his second and third comments shortly, no doubt, you will be aware that billev is not in fact open to persuasion.
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barry1487 at 18:38 PM on 22 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
Ah, billev, I re-read your first comment.
There were pauses in temperature rise from about 1880 until about 1910 and from about 1945 until about 1974 and now since about 2002
The mean trend estimate since 2002 is positive (but see below). You can check for yourself at this easy-to-use app on the web. Just type 2002 in the start year box, select whichever data set and hit 'calculate'.
www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html
The uncertainty is larger than the trend, but that doesn't mean there isn't one. It does mean that the time-period is too short to confidently claim a pause, cooling, warming or whatever. Way too short. You need longer time periods for this data. 30 years is a good minimum standard.
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barry1487 at 18:27 PM on 22 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
he is too arrogant to consider the possibility that it might be he who is mistaken.
Not necessarily. He declared his lack of expertise. His statements seem confident, but that doesn't mean he's close-minded. Let's reserve judgement.
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barry1487 at 18:24 PM on 22 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
billev,
I think that use of the period 1974 to 2002 compared to the period 1911 to 1945 would be a more appropriate comparison rather than 1975 to 2015.
Why? The more data, the less uncertainty. What's so important about 2002? Do you think it marks a transition point or something?
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Tom Curtis at 16:05 PM on 22 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
billev @11 states that:
"I also think that years that feature unusually large temperature spikes either up or down associated with short term climate events should be ignored."
It is very obvious, however, that he does not practise it. For example, if we determine the GISSTEMP trend from 1910-1974, and take the residuals to that slope over the entire record, there is an obvious "unusually large temperature spikes ... associated with short term climate events":
The spike spans only a single decade(1936-1946) so is obviously short term. Its cause is likely primarilly an artifact of the large change in SST measurement methods coupled with larger changes in typical ocean routes (and hence areas of the ocean SST frequenlty measured), but the large 1939-1942 El Nino was no doubt also a major contributor. (A greater than expected forcing from black carbon cannot be excluded either). Although I used GISSTEMP, the spike is also evident in the NOAA record which billev prefers.
Of course, had the spike been excluded, as billev claims should be done with such spikes, his temperature record would be a slight downward trend from 1880-1910, reversed by a slight upward trend from 1910-1970, and a strong upward trend thereafter.
Why 1970 and not 1974? Well, 1974 was the start of a very strong La Nina of record breaking length, and hence of a large downward temperature spike such as he says should be ignored. Rather than ignoring it, however, as with 1945, he turns it into a breakpoint.
Even worse is his insistence on a breakpoint in 2002. As it happens, a 1974-2002 trend is less than the 1974-2003 trend, less than the 1974-2005 trend, less than the 1974-2006 trend, and even less than the 1974-2007 trend. Only for years after 2007 is the trend from 1974 less than that from 1974-2002. Why then is 2002 chosen in preference to 2007 and the breakpoint? As it happens, 2008 was a strong La Nina year (along with having the lowest solar activity since 1910). And 2012 had the second strongest La Nina year since 1876 when the SOI records begin. If he truly excluded "unusually large temperature spikes", billev would have needed to exclude 2008, 2012 and 2013 from the data - something using a 2007 breakpoint makes altogether to obvious. So instead he shifts the breakpoint back to 2002, but must still retain the years he claims should be excluded in order to get his "pause".
Without those three strong La Nina years, there is no pause in the 21st century. Indeed, even including them and the (so far) tied eigth strongest El Nino on record results in no pause, with the cherry picked 2002-2015 trend being nearly the same as the cherry picked 1910-1945 trend. Indeed, that was the point of billev's comment. He needs to exclude 2015 to maintain a case, so he drops in a throw away rational to do so, while not noticing how damaging it is to his case.
billev states "I am neither a scientist or a statistician", and as can be seen above, nor does he have more than a superficial knowledge of the data. And on this foundation of expertise, he disputes the conclusions of people who are scientists and statisticians, and how know the data like the back of their own hands. Despite that, he is too arrogant to consider the possibility that it might be he who is mistaken.
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ubrew12 at 14:35 PM on 22 March 2016Tracking the 2°C Limit - February 2016
Hank@23 said: "I started engineering long before computers when everything was done with hand calculations" Sorry, I had no idea! I assumed I was talking with a modern stamp-product of the STEM system.
I'm a lowly thermal engineer. However, primarily in spacecraft (of which Earth is such) and so the entire 'controversy' over a CO2-induced radiative imbalance over our spacecrafts heat-rejection capability quite frankly has been 'cramping my 88*ss' for 20 years now. It's time to let Physics tell its story, and believe the story its telling.
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bozzza at 12:43 PM on 22 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
Coral Bleaching takes only a few months to be a harbinger of bad!
Market forces will react if necessary!!
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dagold at 09:51 AM on 22 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
Knaugle - still, you raise an excellent point, imo. The various baselines (1951-1980, 1981-2010, etc.) do a great disservice to getting the idea of 'total warming' across. The total warming, including all the intentions set in Paris, are keying of a pre-industrial baseline which is, of course, lower than ANY of the later ones. I'm sure, to the average person, a reportage of, say, 1.35C above 1951-1980 appears as a "total warming" of 1.35C. But, as this article points out, it is much worse than that. Frustrating.
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Mal Adapted at 09:46 AM on 22 March 2016Lots of global warming since 1998
From a guest post on RealClimate a while back, by Stephan Lewandowsky, James Risbey and Naomi Oreskes, Hiatus or Bye-atus?:
To date, research on the “pause” has addressed at least 4 distinct questions:
1. Is there a “pause” or “hiatus” in warming?
2. Has warming slowed compared to the long-term warming trend?
3. Has warming lagged behind model-derived expectations?
4. What physical mechanisms underlie the “hiatus”?Those questions are not only conceptually distinct, they also involve different aspects of the data and entail different statistical hypotheses.
Answering the first question requires careful construction of the null hypothesis being examined, leading directly to the second question. That was addressed in another RC post, by Stefan Rahmstorf: Recent global warming trends: significant or paused or what? Using the appropriate statistical technique of "change point analysis", Stefan showed there was no statistically significant divergence from the long-term warming trend based on GISTEMP data, and tamino showed no statistically significant divergence in any the commonly-used datasets .
The answer to the third question, by working climate scientists as well as AGW-deniers, is usually 'yes', leading naturally to the fourth question. The best peer-reviewed response, IMHO, is the 2014 Nature Geoscience Commentary by Schmidt et al., Reconciling warming trends, discussing how the CMIP family of models can better resolve short-term “noise” to forcing by greenhouse gasses, solar irradiance, ocean circulation, and anthropogenic and volcanogenic aerosols. This is science working as expected.
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Rob Honeycutt at 07:10 AM on 22 March 2016Tracking the 2°C Limit - February 2016
Hans... I'm not really so sure La Nina is going to come save us. The ONI figures dropped back down to -1.6 after the 1997/98 El Nino, but if you look at the 2nd or 4th figures in this post, temps only dropped back down to the long term trend. I would expect something similar for this El Nino.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 07:02 AM on 22 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
A coral bleaching event on the GBR isn't just likely, it has started. The question now is whether the term 'massive' will apply.
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Hans Petter Jacobsen at 06:45 AM on 22 March 2016Tracking the 2°C Limit - February 2016
I really liked the 'Tracking the 2 °C Limit' plot the first time I saw it, and I therefore generated a similar plot for my blog. I still like the plot, but I have a couple of comments on it.
The plot and the text in the blog post focus on the 'Current 12 months average' and on the last month. If we focus too much on the warming in the current El Nino phase, we have to accept that the contrarians will focus on the cooling in the next La Nina phase. These ups and downs in temperature are caused by natural climate variability. Our concern must be the long term warming, and we should therefore concentrate on the long term trend line.
My other comment is that the plot may give the impression that we may wait some years, maybe even a decade, before harsh measures to reduce the emissions must be implemented. This is because the temperature increases rather slowly due to the inertia in the climate system. Despite more than one hundred years with man-made carbon emissions, the long term temperature trend has increased by only 1 °C. In the next decade it will probably rise by another 0.2 °C, and there is still 0.3 °C left before the 1.5 °C limit is reached. We get a more grim and realistic view on the situation if we focus on the carbon emissions and on the carbon budgets. If the current carbon emissions continue as they were in 2014, the IPCC carbon budget for 1.5 °C warming will be exhausted in six years.
I have written more about this on my blog.
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Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
billev - Short term variations (such as ENSO and volcanic activity) are part of the data as well, and if you are actually trying to establish the long term trends they have to be accounted for in some fashion or another.
2002 to now (just 13-14 years) is far too short for statistical significance given the underlying climate trends and short term variability; I'm afraid your claims in that regard aren't supported by the numbers.
As to the amount and effect of CO2, I suggest reading the SkS article on the 'CO2 is just a trace gas' denial myth - doubling one of the few IR active long term greenhouse gases certainly has an effect. Arguments from personal incredulity (your 'difficult time believing') are a farily common logical fallacy.
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rkrolph at 04:51 AM on 22 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
billev-
You admit that there is much you don't understand so that's a start. Just because something doesn't make sense to you doesn't mean it isn't real. If you are really serious about climate science, you should try to educate yourself and understand what the scientists are saying and why. Then you can come back and ask intelligent questions about the subject once you are more informed.
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billev at 03:55 AM on 22 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
I am neither a scientist or a statistician so there is much I do not understand. In my original post i said that the NOAA temperature chart shows an overall upward trend in temperature. I think that use of the period 1974 to 2002 compared to the period 1911 to 1945 would be a more appropriate comparison rather than 1975 to 2015. I also think that years that feature unusually large temperature spikes either up or down associated with short term climate events should be ignored. I have a difficult time believing that carbon dioxide at one part in 2500 parts of atmosphere has any role that influences the global temperature. There is just not enough there there.
Moderator Response:[TD] Please read "CO2 Is Just a Trace Gas."
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knaugle at 01:30 AM on 22 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
Of course on closer reading I missed the answer to my question. Sorry.
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knaugle at 01:27 AM on 22 March 2016Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists
So when climate scientists and policy makers say the target beyond which we are likely to see more worrisome effects is +2°C, what is that in relation to? I had thought it was the 20th century average. So if NASA reports we are +1.35C relative to 1951-1980, doesn't that mean we are even higher relative to the other baseline? Regardless, it is more a semantic question than anything.
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How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
ConcernedCitizen - Are you asking about 'latitude' or 'altitude'? The latter would make sense given previous exchanges, the former not so much.
CO2 is indeed radiating from a higher (and hence cooler) altitude than it did before the Industrial Revolution, the spectra of emissions at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) has been observed by satellites to have changed just as expected, the tropopause has risen several hundred meters, etc etc etc. And the explanation for it is indeed part of the OP, not to mention many of the comments made in this thread and others.
Therefore your comment above is simply nonsense, and the article continues to hold true to both theory and data. You've made a series of such comments, and have been pointed to the literature and the physics demonstrating why you are incorrect. I would suggest you take advantage of such pointers, and educate yourself.
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barry1487 at 21:33 PM on 21 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
Thanks mod. I hoped the insert format would do that auto. Width=500 for next time.
Moderator Response:[RH] No problem!
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ConcernedCitizen at 20:33 PM on 21 March 2016How we know the greenhouse effect isn't saturated
If no one can explain why CO2 is radiating from a higher lattitude then can we assume than that it isnt and that the article is false?
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barry1487 at 17:36 PM on 21 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
Slight amendment:
"If one wants to claim that there is some kind of mulitdecadal cycle in climate evolution, one has to deterine a physical mechanism. Attempts have been made to do just that with mixed results."
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barry1487 at 17:24 PM on 21 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
billev,
You are quite right that the long-term record has intermittent temp rises over multidecadal time scales, with a mid-century period relatively flat.
First thing to note is that the overall trend is upwards.
Second thing to note is that all sorts of factors affect surface temperatures and their evolution, and over different time scales.
Third thing to note is that CO2 warming effect was less in the early part of the 20th century than the latter. Often this is used to argue that CO2 increase can't be the cause, or the primary cause.
Early 20th century warming has been attributed to combination of strong solar and weak CO2 (volcanism plays a part, too). Let's plot solar and temps together. I had to match phase in solar cycle - peak to peak in this case, which forces me to start in 1907 and finish in 1946. Plotting a trend with solar beginning and ending in different phases would give spurious results.
There is some contribution from solar (but solar effect is meant to be quite minimal). There is also a warming from volcanism. 3 factors (at least) contributed to warming in this period (sorry, volcano data is not available at the website I'm using)
How about solar vs recent warming?
Again, I had to make sure phases were matched in the solar cycle, so the post-1974 warming trend has to begin in 1982 and finish in December 2014. I also want to use at least 30-year periods to avoid short-term natural phases (like el Ninos) skewing the results. Note that I have excluded the warm years and months of 2015/16. Though I was forced to in order to match solar cycle phasing, I'm actually glad because I prefer conservative results.
This time, solar is a negative contributon. (Volcanism has been fairly steady for this period)
Now let's compare rates of warming for the first period you indicate, and then the recent period from 1975.
1911 - 1945 rate of warming is 0.138C/decade (+/- 0.045 uncertainty)
1975 - 2015 rate of warming is 0.175C/decade (+/-0.033 uncertainty)
Both trends are statistically signficant (trends since 2002 are not). The more recent mean trend is higher than the earlier one, BUT... the uncertainties overlap, so we can't honestly say that these trends are statistically distinguishable. We can't say that the recent warming rate is faster, slower or the same as 1911-1945. However, this is only one of many statistical tests we could run.
By the same token, we can't claim that the similarity relative periods 'disprove' CO2 contribution. We need attribution studies for that - the graphs above are just a beginning.
One thing that we can definitely not claim is that the future evolution of temp trends will match the previous. We are kind of designed to see patterns whether or not they are actual. If one wants to claim that there is some kind of cycle in climate evolution, one has to deterine a physical mechanism. Attempts have been made to do just that with mixed results.
Whatever natural multidecadal cycles may be present in the long-term evolution of climate, they are not sufficient to explain the long-term (centennial) trend. There are longer temperature cycles (ie the ice ages) but these are at a much slower pace than current.
This is not so much as to finalise an answer, but to get you thinking. If this stuff is well-known to you, hopefully you'll forgive an unnecessary post.
Moderator Response:[RH] Reduced image size to 500px wide to prevent breaking page format.
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tinablake at 17:24 PM on 21 March 2016After 116 days, MIT fossil fuel divestment sit-in ends in student-administration deal for climate action
Well its longest week for the activities of Fosil free MIT the Vice President and towards all along the research team involvement. Well we have a great opportunity for the entire blogger website because we have a easy website builder for you that is a systematically done by expert developers.
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Tom Curtis at 16:23 PM on 21 March 2016Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
bozza @52 &53, of course the figures are approximate, in the sense that they have error margins. The figure for geothermal flux is plus or minus 4.3%, for example. Given that, it is quite possible although very improbable that it would change by plus or minus 4% from year to year - an amount so small as to be inconsequential to climate change. Errors on radiative forcing of greenhouse gases are typically in the plus or minus 10% range.
With regard to human produced energy, total human energy production by fossil fuel burning and nuclear power stations was 143 x 10^12 Watts as of 2005. Obviously it has increased since then. Your 10 TW value is therefore approximately 7% of the actual value. However, I am not sure I have properly understood what you were saying.
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Tom Curtis at 16:01 PM on 21 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
billev @6, you can only "only have an observation" if you make no projection. You, however, make projections out to 2099 unconditionally, and to 2350 conditionally. Ergo, you have a theory about the observations, which in fact happens to be false. It does not fit the observations even over the period 1880-2015 unless your terminology is so loose as to make your claims void of meaning, as shown above.
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bozzza at 16:00 PM on 21 March 2016Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
I was of course referring to this figure, "..Earth’s 47 TW interior heat..", quoted in comment 50!
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bozzza at 15:58 PM on 21 March 2016Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
..I was of the long held opinion that humanity used about 10 TW of man-made energy: could it be possible that these figures actually be anywhere near approximate from a rational pov?
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chriskoz at 15:17 PM on 21 March 20162016 SkS Weekly Digest #12
Today's toon is hardly pro climate science education (or I don't see it that way): it rather reaffirms the n#1 denier's myth on the top left: Climate's changed before.
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billev at 15:07 PM on 21 March 2016Global Warming Basics: What Has Changed?
I don't have a theory. I only have an observation. That observation, based on observing the NOAA furnished temperature history chart, is that the warming experienced since 1880 has not been continuous. I am not talking trends I am talking temperature history. I also believe that the significant imbalance between the scale of the presentation of the years on the horizontal axis versus the temperature anomalies on the vertical axis diminish the ability to read the charts accurately. One thing I have noticed in various comments on the charts is a desperate attempt to mask the probable beginning of another pause in continuous warming that began (in my opinion) in 2002 or 2003. I think that those observing the temperature charts over the next 10 to 15 years will probably see that a pause in warming has occurred.
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Tom Curtis at 14:19 PM on 21 March 2016Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
pjcarson2015 @50, you claim the rate of release of geothermal energy varies significantly due to earthquakes and volcanism, but provide no numbers. Numbers, however, are easy to find. For example, the largest geologically recent eruption is that of Lake Toba in Indonesia, 74 thousand years ago. Here is a comparison of ejected lava for Lake Toba compared to other geologically recent volcanoes:
The Lake Toba erruption was so large that its global impacts may nearly have caused the extinction of the human race. It errupted with a force of 3.3 x 10^18 Joules, equivalent to 9.15 on the Richter scale. Despite that, globally and annually averaged, it represents a forcing of just 0.0002 W/m^2. That is only a 0.2% increase in background geothermal flux, or 0.005% of the forcing from a doubling of CO2.
Of course, for a change in geothermal flux to significantly effect climate, a 0.2% change for just one year isn't going to do it. Rather, you would need significantly more than that increase year in and year out over the long term. So your theory is, not that one Lake Toba erruption equivalent has occurred, but that multiple such eruptions are occuring year in and year out, and we are simply not noticing.
Alternatively you might consider the flux to come from increased earthquake activity, and that we are experiencing significantly greater than twenty times the normal rate of magnitude 9+ earthquakes year in, year out without noticing.
Of course, magnitude 9 earthquakes are fairly noticable, so you may prefer a increase in a lower magnitude quake. But it takes 52,400 magnitude 6 earthquakes to release the same amount of energy as a Lake Toba erruption (magnitude 9.15 equivalent). So for a 0.2% increase in the background rate, you have to imagine that the rate of magnitude 6 earthquakes has increased, year in, year out, by 52,400 per annum over their normal background rate. Unfortunately, the background rate of magnitude 6 earthquakes measured over the twentieth century is 100 to 150 per year. Ergo your theory requires the rate to have risen to that level from a prior rate of -52,275 magnitude 6 earthquakes a year.
Quite frankly, all these alternative proposals are ridiculous.
And what is even more riduculous given that for the change in geothermal flux to be significant relative to the change in heatflow due to the enhanced greenhouse effect, you need a change in the background flux, not of 0.02% but of 10,000%. Again, we would have noticed. Indeed, the measurements which determined the current background rate would have picked it up. The greatest increase in background rate of geothermal flux you can concievably argue for is the current rate of flux of 0.09 W/m^2. And that is insignificant compared to the change due to the change in greenhouse gases, and relies on the unphysical assumption that there was no geothermal flux prior to about 1850.
In short, that you provide no numbers in support of your contention is no accident. That is because if you look at the numbers, you see immediately that your theory cannot be true.
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pjcarson2015 at 10:23 AM on 21 March 2016Heat from the Earth’s interior does not control climate
Planet Earth does its own (analog) calculations which it always gets right. It doesn’t have error bars. (Man is playing catch up in the calculation stakes.) Earth’s input and output energy always balance to zero when the Earth’s temperature is at equilibrium. As I wrote previously, this is the circumstance when Earth’s 47 TW interior heat comes into significance.
As you say, the rate of Earth’s heat production is a very slowly changing property – too slow to be of any significance in these discussions – but its rate of release does vary significantly, principally with earthquakes and volcanism, both of which known to change.
Moderator Response:[PS] Please note the Comments Policy statement on "No sloganeering". If you wish to make assertions about "Planet Earth does its own calculations", or that geothermal rate can change in a way that could be significant to climate, then you must back your assertions with data and/or papers. You beliefs fly in the face of known data and laws of physics. Please provide the basis for such beliefs.
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