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Bob Loblaw at 03:35 AM on 24 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
Thanks for that link, Tom.
I see that DiagramMonkey thinks that I am braver than he is. (There is a link over there back to this post...)
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Tom Dayton at 02:43 AM on 24 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
Diagram Monkey posted about the most recent Pat Frank article.
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bigoilbob at 00:48 AM on 24 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
An update. Dr. Frank created an auto erotic self citation for his paper, so there is no longer "no citations" for it.
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Rob Honeycutt at 23:51 PM on 23 August 2023Climate Confusion
MarkP... Zeke Hausfather has a very good explainer on this topic that may assist in your understanding of this topic.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:29 PM on 23 August 2023At a glance - How substances in trace amounts can cause large effects
ubrew12:
Your analogy is a bit hard to follow. I presume that the point you are trying to make is:
- The best players in the world will not be very effective in stopping you from reaching the goal when their shoes are tied together. As a result, your chances of scoring are high. This is analogous to IR radiation easily passing through gases that do not absorb well.
- Even a mediocre player that is free to run around and get in your way has a good chance of stopping you, even if he only represents 2% of the players on the field (most of whom are limited by having their shoes tied together). This is analogous to CO2 blocking IR radiation, even though its concentration is small compared to the gases that are not blocking IR radiation.
- So, your chances of scoring are largely the result of the one player free to run around and defend against you, not the 50 players with their shoes tied. Expressing the concentration of untied players relative to the tied players is misleading.
To extend the analogy, if they took away 25 of the players with their shoes tied, the local high school player would now be 4% of the total opposition. But that does not mean that he would be twice as effective at stopping you. He's still only one player.
For a further look at how concentrations of CO2 in ppm can be misleading, it is worth reading this blog post (to beat my own drum):
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Bob Loblaw at 23:11 PM on 23 August 2023Climate Confusion
Markp @ 19:
In your first paragraph, you appear to be confusing two different scenarios:
- net zero implies that anthropogenic net additions to atmospheric CO2 are zero (which means emissions are zero, or we have found ways to remove CO2 as well as add it).
- Stabilize CO2 means that atmospheric concentrations are not changing - which can happen when anthropogenic net contributions are still positive, but are balanced because natural removals exceed natural additions by the same amount.
In the first case (net zero), natural removals (which currently exceed natural additions) will cause a reduction in atmospheric CO2 over the next decades, and we expect to see temperatures stabilize. The decreasing CO2 will not lead immediately to cooling, because the current CO2 levels still have "warming in the pipeline" that will offset the immediate direct cooling effect of less CO2.
In the second case (CO2 stable), there is still "warming in the pipeline", so we expect to see temperatures continue to rise for a while.
Once you understand this difference, I expect that much of your confusion will dissipate.
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Eclectic at 22:20 PM on 23 August 2023Climate Confusion
Markp @19 , your final paragraph is, in itself, showing lack of clarity.
Cynical people (like you and I ) as well as non-cynical people, should surely wish to take practical action to achieve nett-zero carbon emissions in a reasonably quick manner ~ even though those scientists (with various levels of "ept" ) fail to give perfect precision of projection of the probable prospective developments [futurists refer to this as the problem of pppppd scenario ].
More seriously, Markp . . . what alternatives are you suggesting?
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Markp at 20:25 PM on 23 August 2023Climate Confusion
I'm still not sold on the idea that zero or net-zero emissions implies no future warming, as Evan says "A world where the best we do is to stabilize CO2 has, for all intents and purposes, "warming in the pipeline", something that does not occur if and when we reach net-zero emissions."
First of all, it is not ultimately GHGs that determine warming, it is the EEI that does that. In other words, as I understand it, if the EEI is positive, but GHG emissions are zero, Earth still warms.
I also find it problematic that the idea of "zero emissions" or "net-zero" seems to imply to most people that all we are talking about are human emissions, when the possibility of an end to human emissions could exist while (significant) non-human emissions (for example permafrost melt) could still create warming, so that we are actually not at zero or even net-zero emissions regardless of source.
I have long searched for a really solid scientific explanation of the concept of baked-in or committed warming that carefully tries to help people understand why some scientists say it exists and some say it doesn't. But the Zeke piece (and I don't trust for-profit scientists on this) is not convincing and neither is the Scientific American piece.
Neither is the MacDougall 2022 ZECMIP study paper which clearly states "The most policy relevant question related to this research is: will global temperatures continue to increase following complete cessation of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions? The present iteration of the study aims to answer part of this question by examining the temperature response in idealized CO2-only climate model experiments. To answer the question in full, the behaviour of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land-use-change must be accounted for in a consistent way," which is another way of admitting that ZECMIP at this point is still "garbage in, garbage out."
In fact, the pieces I have found seem to rely purely on models which are always incomplete, as is ZECMIP.
And neither is this piece by Evan able to clarify this for me. Evan simply says it does not happen, as if that's been settled. He does not mention the warming, for example, that would come from the (potentially sudden? would it even matter?) end of reflective fossil fuel aerosols.
The amazing lack of clarity on this subject, which is absolutely crucial to the discussion of any need to lower emissions, is astonishing, and leads cynical people like me to assume that it is a result of the IPCC-induced obfuscation and the complete ineptitude on the part of scientists to recognize that this issue is important and to do something about providing clarity.
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering and accusations of deceptions snipped. Please conform future comments to adhere to this site's Comments Policy to avoid such behaviors in the future. Thanks!
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ubrew12 at 06:34 AM on 23 August 2023At a glance - How substances in trace amounts can cause large effects
Say I'm on the soccer field. The ball is infrared radiation. Against me are 50 of the best players in the World. Can I make a goal? Did I mention their shoes are tied together?
Now, put one more opposing player, from the local high school, only his shoes aren't tied together. Can I make a goal? Suddenly, it's not as certain. The opposing team has only grown by 2%, but my chances of making a goal have dropped around 50%.
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Doug Bostrom at 06:11 AM on 23 August 2023Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2023
Thanks OPOF!
Yes, it's a bit frustrating and indeed ironic that we don't have the full Samoilenko & Cook paper on tap, only the submitted manuscript.
An object lesson of sorts on the weird intersection between for-profit publishers and science. Climate Policy is published by Taylor & Francis, which in turn is owned by Informa, which as a publicly traded company is intended for the purpose of rent-seeking for the benefit of investors as opposed to advancing the state of human knowledge. The rent-seeking objective is quite successful; by jealously guarding and obfuscating scientific information, Informa yielded three quarters of a billon dollars of profit last year. We could wish that selling sewage was a more profitable avenue thus luring the cloud of investor flies looking for free lunch in that direction. But as it stands now, hiding information from the public is the best deal on offer.
It may be that the authors still have managed to cling to the right to individually share what they've learned and won't be sued if they do so. Try emailing john[at]skepticalscience.com if you're keen to see figures.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:38 AM on 22 August 2023Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2023
Thank you for another wonderful set of interesting items.
The highlighted item "Developing an Ad Hominem Typology for Classifying Climate Misinformation" presents an interesting and helpful evaluation of misinformation ad hominem attacks regarding climate science.
The developed understanding can be understood to apply to misinformation attacks on other efforts to increase awareness and understanding, like the Sustainable Development Goals, that result in requiring:
- changes of direction of development (Systemic Change)
- correction of development that has already occured (Changing the Status Quo)
- making amends for harm done by past actions (Systemic Change that Changes the Status Quo)
Minor Point: The linked report does not include the Figures and Tables. The text only includes the statements:
- INSERT Figure x HERE
- INSERT Table y HERE
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Bob Loblaw at 03:38 AM on 21 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
More speculation won't get us anywhere.
J4Zonian's recent comment is not his first appearance here, and he has been an infrequent visitor. Nothing in previous posts suggests a strong anti-climate-science stance, so let's give him the benefit of the doubt (until further evidence comes to light).
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Rob Honeycutt at 03:04 AM on 21 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
Given I doubt he'll be returning, I wonder if the "Jeffersonian" name reference is a clue to the intent.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:39 AM on 21 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
Bob, It may be very difficult to 'know for sure' what J4sonian meant.
The use of the term 'delivery guy' is my primary basis for considering J4sonian's comment to be a misinformation ad hominem type of comment (I have just started reading the "Samoilenko, S.A., & Cook, J. (2023). Developing an Ad Hominem Typology for Classifying Climate Misinformation. Climate Policy. doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2245792" paper highlighted on "Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2023")
The short statement by J4sonian can be considered to be a dog-whistle appeal to people who have developed a motivation to disrespect and be dismissive of 'Al Gore'. The 'delivery guy' term can easily be interpreted that way.
The nasty thing about dog-whistle misleading messages is the way that they can be claimed to 'not be the misinformation appeal to people who are inclined to be unjustifiably impressed that it is intended to be'. 'Delivery Guy' could be claimed to have been a friendly colloquial way of describing a diligent pursuer and presenter of increased awareness and better understanding
A history of clearly attempting to help increase awareness and improve understanding regarding climate science by J4sonian could convince me that their comment was not meant to 'disrespect Al Gore as a means of being dismissive of the information he raised awareness of'. And a part of that would include J4sonian admitting that when Al Gore produced An Inconvenient Truth he had a significantly better awareness and understanding of climate science that many 'geologists at that time' and many 'geologists claiming to be well informed regarding climate science today'.
In summary, a reasonable sounding clarification from J4sonian could be a more subtle dog-whistle appeal to people who are motivated to dislike increased awareness and improved understanding regarding climate science and the related required corrections of 'harmful over-consuming developed ways of living' and 'making amends for the harm done'.
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BaerbelW at 18:45 PM on 20 August 2023Sea level rise is exaggerated
Please note: the basic version of this rebuttal has been updated on Aug 20, 2023 and now includes an "at a glance“ section at the top. To learn more about these updates and how you can help with evaluating their effectiveness, please check out the accompanying blog post @ https://sks.to/at-a-glance
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Bob Loblaw at 03:40 AM on 20 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
We'll only know for sure if J4zonian clarifies his position.
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Bob Loblaw at 03:36 AM on 20 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
Thanks, bigoilbob.
That PubPeer thread is difficult to read. The obstinance by Pat Frank is painful to watch.
One classic comment from Pat Frank:
Everyone understands the 1/sqrt(N) rule for random error, Joshua.
Except, apparently, Pat Frank, who in the paper reviewed above seems to have messed up square rooting the N when propagating the standard deviation into the error of the mean. Unless he actually thinks that non-randomness in errors can be handled by simply dropping the sqrt.
Pat Frank is also quite insistent in that comment thread that summing up a year's worth of a measurement (e.g. temperature) and dividing by the number of measurements to get an annual average gives a value of [original units] per year.
Gavin Cawley sums it up in this comment:
I had a look at your responses to reviewers on the previous submissions, which seem also to contain this very poor attitude to criticism. It tells me there is no point in me explaining to you what is wrong with your paper, because you have made it very clear that you are not prepared to listen to anybody that disagrees with you.
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bigoilbob at 02:42 AM on 20 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
And here's the twiter thread I began with.
https://twitter.com/andrewdessler/status/1175490719114571776
Moderator Response:[BL] Link activated
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bigoilbob at 02:39 AM on 20 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
"Do you have any link to specific statements from Carl Wunsch? Curiosity arises."
Specifically, this is what I found. Old news, but not to me. I hope that I did not mischaracterize Dr. Wunsch earlier, and my apologies to both him and readers if aI did so.
"#5 Carl Wunsch
I am listed as a reviewer, but that should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the paper. In the version that I finally agreed to, there were some interesting and useful descriptions of the behavior of climate models run in predictive mode. That is not a justification for concluding the climate signals cannot be detected! In particular, I do not recall the sentence "The unavoidable conclusion is that a temperature signal from anthropogenic CO2 emissions (if any) cannot have been, nor presently can be, evidenced in climate observables." which I regard as a complete non sequitur and with which I disagree totally.The published version had numerous additions that did not appear in the last version I saw.
I thought the version I did see raised important questions, rarely discussed, of the presence of both systematic and random walk errors in models run in predictive mode and that some discussion of these issues might be worthwhile."
https://pubpeer.com/publications/391B1C150212A84C6051D7A2A7F119#5
Moderator Response:[BL] Link activated.
The web software here does not automatically create links. You can do this when posting a comment by selecting the "insert" tab, selecting the text you want to use for the link, and clicking on the icon that looks like a chain link. Add the URL in the dialog box. -
John Mason at 01:33 AM on 20 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
OPOF #8 - that was my impression and it was why I responded sharply: however, if I have miscalled comment #5 then I apologise for that.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:23 AM on 20 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
Bob Loblaw @7,
I agree more with John Mason's approach. But I would go further and ask J4zonian to explain how they are more qualified today regarding the awareness and understanding of climate science than Al Gore was when he developed An Inconvenient Truth. Al Gore was a very aware individual at the time with a significant understanding of the science. And he knows far more today.
I am more inclined towards the perception that J4zonian is unjustifiably disrespecting Al Gore. And I sense that the disrespect is due to a dislike for the understanding that Al Gore shared.
The understanding that Al Gore 'shared' increased the common sense awareness and understanding of the issue, especially the need for harmful inconsiderate over-consuming Americans, and others like them, to change how they live to be less harmful and more helpful to others (contrary to the untruthful declarations by both 'Bush' Presidents of the Neoliberal mantra that harmfully over-developed Americans are 'the winners' and did not have to change how they lived or make amends for the harm done by 'their success' - Many Republicans and Some Democrats still chant versions of that untruth).
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Bob Loblaw at 23:55 PM on 19 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
John @ 6:
I don't think J4zonian is saying "don't believe Al Gore because he's just a delivery man". I think J4zonian is saying that Al Gore is a messenger of the science, so even if he gets a little bit wrong here and there, the original diagnosis and medicine is largely correct.
I think.
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John Mason at 15:48 PM on 19 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
And your qualifications are?
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J4zonian at 14:36 PM on 19 August 2023At a glance - Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth correct?
"because a single doctor misdiagnoses a condition, medicine should be abolished in its entirety."
It's Al Gore. It's more like a delivery guy misdiagnosed a condition.
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Eclectic at 09:59 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don Williams :
Since you seem reluctant to engage in rational discussion ~ may I suggest you instead join the comments columns of WattsUpWithThat blog?
There at WUWT one will find scores of commenters brimming with anger at the world ( and at themselves, inwardly ). Plenty of disingenuousness and deliberate ignorance there . . . enough to satisfy any like-minded spirit. You might well be pleased!
At WUWT blog, the ice age has never ended.
Moderator Response:[BL] This really isn't constructive....
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Bob Loblaw at 07:17 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
MA Rodger @ 138:
Yes, this discussion is wandering off the blog post's topic. There is no way to determine Don Williamson's motives unless he explains them, but it appears that he is trying to do two things:
- Take Oreskes' paper out of context to make it look like the 1970s "cooling" story was an indicator of a huge shift in climate science [it wasn't] - I presume to discredit climatology as a science [he hasn't].
- Bootstrap the idea that "they don't know what they are talking about - they'll just make stuff up" by using the hiatus as an indicator that warming isn't linked to CO2 increases [he's wrong] and we might flip back into decades or centuries of cooling even if we burn every last bit of fossil fuels [we won't].
I have an off-topic challenge to Don that he has not yet responded to (review one example of the many "hiatus" papers he insinuates support him). I need to let him respond, if he is willing or able.
If the off-topic sound bites continue without responding to that challenge, I will probably need to bow out of the conversation and take on a moderator role.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:03 AM on 19 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
bigoilbob @ 24:
Do you have any link to specific statements from Carl Wunsch? Curiosity arises.
I agree that science will simply ignore the paper. But the target is probably not the science community: it's the "we'll believe ABC [Anything But Carbon]" community, which unfortunately includes large blocks of politicians with significant power. All they need is a thick paper that has enough weight (physical mass, not significance) to survive being tossed down the stairwell, with a sound bite that says "mainstream science has it all wrong". It doesn't matter that the paper isn't worth putting at the bottom of a budgie cage.
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Eclectic at 05:02 AM on 19 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
Bigoilbob @24 , as a side-note :- Many thanks for your numerous very sensible comments in "contrarian" blogsites, over the years. Gracias.
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bigoilbob at 00:51 AM on 19 August 2023A Frank Discussion About the Propagation of Measurement Uncertainty
"Did anyone ever see what the reviewers (including Carl Wunsch and
Davide Zanchettin) said about Frank's similar 2019 paper in Frontiers in Science?"Carl Wunsch has since disavowed his support for the contents. I'm not sure whether he would have rejected it upon closer reading. Many reviewers want alt.material to be published. If it's good stuff, it will be cited. The 2019 Pat Frank paper and this one have essentially not been...
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michael sweet at 00:36 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don Williams:
The "hiatus" papers do not show what you are claiming. Yes, Mann et al claimed that the "pause" was statistically significant. You can quote that paper. But in science it is not individual papers that count, it is the conclusions that count.
Foster and Ramsdorf replied to the Mann et al paper and claimed that the Mann et al paper had made calculation errors that invalidated their result. Foster et al claimed that there was no statistical significance. The scientific method is to exchange peer reviewed papers to debate facts. After several papers were exchanged, Mann et al conceded that they had made a mistake in their calculations and the "pause" was not statistically significant. It was magnificent to watch top scientists debate a fact and reach a consensus on what the true result was.
The scientific consensus is that the "pause" was simply random variation and not a change in the warmng pattern. Data collected since then have conclusively confirmed that the climate did not stop warming as demonstrated by the escalator. The Mann et al scientists agree with the consensus.
Mann and his collaborators are great scientists. Sometimes everyone makes mistakes. The difference between scientists and deniers is that when data shows that a scientist made a mistake they learn from the experience and move on. Deniers just regurgitate the same old debunked "pause" claims after everyone informed has moved on.
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MA Rodger at 00:33 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don Williamson @133 & others,
Discussion of the early 21st century SAT/SST record is hardily on-topic for this comment thread. The handful of years showing a reduced rate of warming surface tempertures did not lead to a reversal of warming but to an increased rate of warming, so any linkage to 1970's ideas of a coming ice age is entirely absent, despite an attempted linkage @108 up-thread. (And for the record, the take-away from the SciAm article referenced @133 is the ascribed response fro 'researchers' to all the 'hiatus' nonsense:-"Picking a period of a decade or so where one part of the Earth's climate system fails to warm and using it to discredit all of climate science is a fallacious argument, and one driven by those with an agenda to discredit climate scientists."
Don Williamson, you have up-thread referenced Oreskes in the discussion of the 1970's idea of a coming ice age and insist there is some missing argument that gives continuing credibility to this 1970's idea (which are also ideas of earlier times according to Oreskes. "Throughout most of the history of science, geologists and geophysicists believed that Earth history was characterized by progressive, steady, cooling.") Do note the referenced pre-print conference paper does not constitute proof of a 'missing argument'. And were one sought, perhaps Oreskes (2007) 'The scientific consensus on climate change: How do we know we're not wrong?' can provide it.
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michael sweet at 00:12 AM on 19 August 2023Do phrases like ‘global boiling’ help or hinder climate action?
Old time readers of this website will remember when climate deniers derided "Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change" or CAGW. Scientists insisted that was not their message. Was that only 10 years ago? Now I often hear climate scientists discussing catastrophic effects of global warming and I don't see the deniers using CAGW any more.
Eclectic: you read WUWT, do they still discredit CAGW?
I like the term catastrophic climate change. What else would describe the fires, droughts and floods worldwide?
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Rob Honeycutt at 00:10 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
"The 'warming' was taking place where there's little to no measuring devices?
Is that sound science?"
Don... If heat energy is moving into realms that have little or no measuring devices, it's absolutely science. Researchers don't get to pick and choose how the physics operate. They can only devise methods to better account for the physics. This is precisely what science is about.
If you look at the animated escalator graphic, this is exactly what it's telling you. Heat energy is moving into and out of other systems which are coupled to the atmosphere. This has been understood for many decades, regardless of whether you're just catching on. Your only mistake would be to become so ideologically entrenched so as to be unable to grasp such a simple concept.
It's honestly okay to just say, "Hm, I hadn't thought about that."
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Bob Loblaw at 00:07 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Also note that the article in Scientific American that Don has pointed us to is phrased in the form of a question: "Has global warming paused?"
Also note that the subtitle is "Climate scientists know the answer is no, but have trouble communicating that".
Don needs to read up on Betteridge's law of headlines.
Seriously, is that the best you can do, Don?
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Bob Loblaw at 00:01 AM on 19 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
As a further part of the challenge to Don:
You have referred to "the hiatus". I will repeat the graphic of the Escalator:
Since the topic of the OP here is "cooling in the 1970s", and The Escalator shows seven periods of "no warming", please be specific as to which of those seven periods represents "the hiatus" you are talking about. Or a different period, if you have found an eighth.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:53 PM on 18 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don:
Just as I thought. You have not actually read any of the papers - you only have a link to something with selected quotes. And the "multiple papers" you claim are available just lead to Michael Mann mentioning a "temporary slowdown"?
I repeat my challenge:
Pick one - just one - of those papers, and provide us with a thorough review of that paper and how it supports your argument that the hiatus represents a serious challenge to the consensus position on anthropogenic increases in global temperature.
You're just blowing smoke. -
Don Williamson at 23:06 PM on 18 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
To Eclectic
Use Google Scholar as well as a couple of search engines reading peer-reviewed paper on the 'hiatus' 'wsrming slowdown'
If you jot down the various reasons that were used in the multiple papers you'll understand why Dr Michael E Mann said, "The problem isn't that we cannot explain the temporary slowdown in warming — ???????????? ???????????????????????????? ???????? ???????????????? ???????????????????? ???????????? ???????? ???????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????? ????????"
Dr Kevin Trenberth Trenberth was a co-author on a paper published in Nature Climate Change that used models to show that pauses in surface temperature warming correspond to additional heat being stored deep in the ocean, ???????????????????? ???????????????????? ???????????????? ???????? ???????????? ???????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????.
The 'warming' was taking place where there's little to no measuring devices?
Is that sound science?
link to quotes above:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-global-warming-paused/
????
Moderator Response:[RH] Link activated.
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John Mason at 16:47 PM on 18 August 2023Do phrases like ‘global boiling’ help or hinder climate action?
I rather liked 'Climate destabilisation' and used it a lot years ago....
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Eclectic at 16:00 PM on 18 August 2023Do phrases like ‘global boiling’ help or hinder climate action?
BaerbelW @6 ,
For sure, Dr Hayhoe's "global weirding" is a great phrase, and fits nicely with her own slightly humorous style of presentation.
For everyday use ~ probably not a winner. It would appeal to the more intellectual end of the spectrum, who already are well-acquainted with the subject of AGW . . . but maybe not conveying the problem for the man-in-the-street. Too poetical.
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BaerbelW at 14:39 PM on 18 August 2023Do phrases like ‘global boiling’ help or hinder climate action?
To add to Nigelj's list of possible terms: what about "global weirding" as used by Katharine Hayhoe for her video series?
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nigelj at 07:40 AM on 18 August 2023Do phrases like ‘global boiling’ help or hinder climate action?
This issue of colourful terms to describe the climate problem comes down to the exact meanings of the terms. and how the general public would be likely to react.
For example the term global boiling seems acceptable. it is obviously hyperbole (deliberate exaggeration not to be taken literally) that nobody in the right mind would take literally, and it gets the point across. Its like the term "Im boiling hot". Nobody would say bad use of language, you are exaggerating. Ubrew 12 made the same sort of point. Only a small cadre of denialists are making a fuss about global boiling. I think the phrase is unlikely to be alienating the general public.
The term climate chaos seems appropriate. It has an element of hyperbole and yet has a foundation of accuracy.
Climate crisis or catastrope isn't hyperbole. People really are suggesting we are in a crisis or catastrophe. So its a question of whether thay are accurate terms, and thats tricky because they are open to interpretation and hard to precisely define. Although catastrophe and crisis is generally understood to be something immediate and overwhelming like a massive bridge collapsing. Whether the climate problem fits the criteria seems very open to interpretation althought IMO we are certainly already seeeing serious problems due to climate change.
The trouble is the use of terms like crisis and exaggeration are open to interpretation, so this gives the denialists an opportunity to claim they are exaggerations and to mock use of the terms. I dont believe in handing denialists ammunition, but it does leave me floundering for an appropriate word that sums things up better than "serious climate change problem."
Another word being more frequently used these days is that climate change is an extinction level threat. Generally this is boldy stated without much if any qualification. The evidence we have suggests climate change is an extinction level threat for at least some animal and plant species and human populations in the tropical climate regions. Its important these qualifiers are added when using the term extinction level threat. Otherwise by leaving things open and implying the human race could become extinct its just begging people to become sceptical.
I hate making comments like this because theres a risk I get labelled a luke warmer by those who cant seeem to read. And this has happened. But the point Im trying to make is its important to get across that the climate problem is very serious, but also avoid making wild claims that don't stand scrutiny.
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John Mason at 23:55 PM on 17 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don, I think you are reading an awful lot into the Oreskes MS that simply isn't there. The piece is a whistle-stop and thus by definition incomplete tour through the history of science in the 19th and 20th centuries.
Just to cite one example in the MS: "the most recent glacial maximum was temporally located only ten to twelve thousand years ago."That's a snapshot of the thinking in the mid 1950s. In fact it was known by 2004 - widely known - that the LGM was more like 25,000 years ago - so well known that Oreskes probably didn't see fit to point it out!
There's a lot more intermingling these days between Earth Science disciplines than there was in the 1950s or 70s, as the planet is considered more holistically now and the tremendous importance of palaeoclimate has become widely accepted. -
Bob Loblaw at 23:08 PM on 17 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
One more challenge for Don, which I predict will be ignored or deflected:
In comment #125 you mention that there are 100s of papers on the hiatus and claim:
...but I've done a lot of research into the hiatus - peer-reviewed papers 'research'
To demonstrate the level of "research" that you have done, here is the challenge:
Pick one - just one - of those papers, and provide us with a thorough review of that paper and how it supports your argument that the hiatus represents a serious challenge to the consensus position on anthropogenic increases in global temperature.
Don't forget to include a link to the paper.
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Bob Loblaw at 22:57 PM on 17 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Frankly, Don, you are now reaching the point where you are just spouting bull$#!^.
I challenged you in comment #113 to provide two things:
- State clearly what you think the "both sides" are.
- State clearly who you think was a well-known climate scientist that was on "both sides".
You have not done this. You have just engaged in a game of "Look! Squirrel!" to jump to some other rhetorical talking point. You are playing games of "maybe this, maybe that" with no actual demonstration of understanding the physics of climate and what is likely or even reasonable possible. You have done selective quoting, and taking those quotes out of context, in order to try to show some grand disagreement or lack of understanding that does not exist.
The "abrupt about-face/reversal of opinion" that you are hanging your hat on is only "abrupt" if you refuse to look at the actual history of climate science and refuse to learn about the well-understood physics that explains the different observed trends and supports our understanding/interpretation. There is a term for that sort of refusal to look at the information available.
As Rob Honeycutt explains in #122, there has been no "reversal" in our understanding of orbital mechanics and long-term trends related to glacial/interglacial cycles. There has been no "reversal" in our understanding that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and that greenhouse gases have a significant effect on global temperatures. There has been no "reversal" in our understanding that atmospheric aerosols (dust, soot, etc.) cause reductions in global surface temperatures.
What has changed is which of these factors is playing a dominant role in current temperature trends. CO2 is "winning", and it is winning rapidly.
You will probably come back with some sort of quip about "Oreskes said this". Well, the anti-evolution crowd is fond of claiming that Darwin said that evolution could not produce the eye. No, he didn't, and you are using the same rhetorical ploy in quoting Oreskes out of context.
You have now switched to shouting "hiatus!" from the treetops. Guess what? Climate science is interested in what factors affect these short-term variations in global temperatures. So, they study them in greater and greater detail (because instrumentation improves) each time they happen. And they happen on fairly regular intervals. So regular that you can track them by how often the contrarians need to update their "no warming since..." myths. Pretty soon, we're going to have to start to rebut "no warming since 2023", since 1998 2016 won't work any more:
We even have a term for these "hiatus" events: we call it The Escalator. The graphic is in the right-hand margin of every SkS page, but here it is in full glory:
You keep saying "isn't this interesting?". No it is not interesting, it is tiresome. This site exists because some people refuse to learn the science and understand it. The "hiatus" was yet another temporary pause in one metric of global climate, and does nothing to reverse our expectations of future warming as CO2 continues to increase.
Your continued use of ":)" at the end of your comments suggests that you are now just trolling. (Gee. Isn't speculation without evidence just so much fun?)
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Doug Bostrom at 18:06 PM on 17 August 2023Do phrases like ‘global boiling’ help or hinder climate action?
Thinking of whsettle's remarks, it astounds me that we'll readily and acceptedly describe such prosaic matters as getting children ready to go to school as "chaos" or "chaotic" but describing the presently emerging features of our changing the climate with the same terms fills us with qualms over hyperbole.
Same for "catastrophe." Fallen souffle? A dinner-time catastrophe! Multiple massively costly climate-driven extreme events? Don't say they're catastrophe, or catastrophic climate change— that's just too heated.
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Rob Honeycutt at 13:32 PM on 17 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don @125...
"The last time I checked, which was a few years ago, he was expecting to top 300 papers on the subject. That's a lot of papers trying to explain a 'talking point'"
I'm very curious if you bothered to read any of these papers, or could quote the conclusions drawn from any of them.
For my own part, based on the research I've read, whenever there's an extended period of little or no warming... what I'm assuming is that means the oceans are taking up a lot of heat energy and all that eventually has to come back into equilibrium with the atmosphere.
"Contrarians" seem to only think, "Ha! No warming! Take that you eco-socialist!"
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Eclectic at 13:02 PM on 17 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don Williamson @125 :
Agreed ~ 100s of peer-reviewed papers on the Hiatus subject of atmospheric pauses in [surface] temperature rise . . . but as Rob Honeycutt says: these pauses occur after every El Nino. Yet these are not actual pauses in modern global warming.
Do you understand the difference? And do you understand that none of us today should get too exercised about the topic?
Don , if the Hiatus is your own hobbyhorse, and you've done a lot of (internet?) research into the Hiatus . . . then you should be able to summarize its important points and place it in scientific context in today's perspective.
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Rob Honeycutt at 12:12 PM on 17 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
"I think I understand why people are interested in finding out why the abrupt about-face more than 'just accept the consensus because it's a consensus and we really mean it this time'"
Don... Just to put a fine point on this one:
There was and is a concensus on orbitally forced cooling over the past 5-6000 years.
There was and is a concensus on mid-20th century cooling due to industrial aerosols.
There was and is a concensus that doubling CO2 concentrations would produce about 3°C of warming.
None of these are inconsistent.
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michael sweet at 12:11 PM on 17 August 2023Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Phillippe Chantreau,
This thread is now 328 posts long. I maintain that nuclear electricity is too expensive, takes too long to build and there is not enough uranium to build more than a handful of plants.
The plants in Georgia cost over $30 billion to build and billions of dollars additional were charged to customers while the plants were being built. They will each generate 1117 MW of power. With a 90% cacpacity factor that will be about $15,000 per megawatt of power source. In 2020 in the USA capacity weighted solar cost was about $1655 source. (It is less now). You can build 10 times as much solar than nuclear for a billion dollars. If you want the nuclear plant to be able to load follow you dramatically decrease the amount of power generated and increase the capacity adjusted cost.
It takes 10-14 years to build a nuclear plant. During that entire time you have to generate your power using fossil fuels. Solar plants take only 2-4 years to build and often start generating when they are half built. The CO2 pollution during constructiion of nuclear is more than the total CO2 cost of solar farms.
The supply of uranium is limited. There is not enough uranium to generate more than about 5% of world power.
Informed people can disagree on what they think about nuclear. I think that since nuclear is uneconomic, takes too long to build and there is not enough uranium that it is a waste of resources building any new plants. The time and costs are already sunk for existing plants so if they can conpete economically they can stay (most existing nuclear plants cannot compete economically).
If you think it is worth investing in expensive, slow, unsafe nuclear plants go for it. It is a free country.
I don't bother to discuss nuclear waste, the safety of nuclear plants, hot water pollution and vulnerability to natural disasters because the economics of nuclear plants are so bad.
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Rob Honeycutt at 11:56 AM on 17 August 2023Ice age predicted in the 70s
Don @123...
"One of the main thrusts of Ms Oresekes' article was the reversal of the dominant view - whether contrarians picked up on it or not."
And as I've attempted to explain repeatedly, there was a "reversal" because there was a "reversal" in the temperature trend. When it was cooling, the dominant position was that it was cooling. When the trend changed to warming, the dominant position "reversed" to warming.
I'm not sure why this fact escapes you.
"Why wouldn't 'this abrupt about-face—from cooling to warming' create doubt?"
Because it has nothing to do with any changes in the scientific understanding of forcings on the climate system that produce warming or cooling.
"A few years after the new consensus was formed - the hiatus made it's unfortunate debut."
Which was much ado about nothing. There's a "hiatus" after every major el nino event.
"I think I understand why people are interested in finding out why the abrupt about-face more than 'just accept the consensus because it's a consensus and we really mean it this time'"
Think about this:
We've known since the mid-1800's that CO2 is the primary radiatively active gas in the atmosphere. We've known since the early 1900's pretty much the amount of warming we'd see from a doubling of CO2 concentratations. Nothing has changed about that concensus, in fact it's only become vastly better understood since then.
The consensus that doubling CO2 would significantly warm the planet hasn't altered a bit. What Dr. Oreskes is speaking about is what was known about the temperature trend at the time, not the underlying physics of what was and is occurring.
