Skeptical Science New Research for Week #33 2023

Posted on 17 August 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

This week we're pleased to highlight a paper by Sergei Samoilenko and John Cook, the latter name likely familiar to many as Dr. Cook is the founder of Skeptical Science. Published in Climate Policy, Samoilienko & Cook's Developing an Ad Hominem Typology for Classifying Climate Misinformation codifies, categorizes and analyzes a large sample of ad hominem "arguments" derived from numerous contrarian blogs and "think-tanks," distilling the following key results:

• Climate misinformation politicizes climate science, further amplifying ideological conflict and fostering ideological polarization;

• Climate misinformation campaigns feature a range of different types of ad hominem attacks designed to undermine the credibility of climate scientists;

• The most common type of ad hominem attack on climate scientists in our sample was bias attacks, which entail accusing climate scientists of political partisanship or of having an ideological agenda;

• Attacks on the moral character of climate scientists were the only type of ad hominem that increased during the period under study (2008–2020);

• Different types of ad hominems often appeared together, with the most common combination being bias and moral attacks;

• Ad hominem attacks on climate scientists are part of misinformation campaigns designed to stall discussion on climate change and delay the implementation of climate policies.

The paper offers recommendations for further inquiry, including testing the efficacy of ad hominem rhetorical tactics such as clustering and what the authors term "Tetris character assassination" by sequential, interlocking attacks, testing of means to neutralize ad hominems, and exploiting the promise of machine learning to advance all such research. 

For our part we'll offer that from the perspective of a layperson, resorting to ad hominem tactics seems a rather pathetic flag of surrender or at best theatrically-managed retreat; attacking personal character rather than ideas fairly obviously means the attacker is incapable of mounting a valid argument and thus can only seek to change the subject of discussion, presumably hoping that by making enough smoke bystanders won't notice intellectual defeat due to lack of authentic rational ammunition.

Taking into account the authors' key findings including that ad hominems are targeted at a wider audience than those being insulted and short of exact evidence-based guidance as to useful replies, in the meanwhile victims and observers alike may at least always, consistently and relentlessly help clear the rhetorical fog laid down by the defeated by asking and persisting with the question "why are you so eager to change the topic away from facts?" But of course it would be best if this reply could be scientifically tested in actual battle conditions; as Samoilienko & Cook point out, it's quite important for climate progress (let alone fairness) to identify predictably reliable means of defeating the cruel obfuscations of evasive maneuvers clad as ad hominem remarks.

Intriguing features in The strength and content of climate anger published in Global Environmental Change by Gregersen, Andersen & Tvinnereim. The authors' survey and analysis of 2,046 Norwegians reveals that only 10% of respondents were angry because they believed climate change communications, mitigations etc. are an unncessary waste of time because they don't believe climate change to be a threat— a reassuringly low figure. Conversely, being angry about humans causing climate change doesn't appear to be reflected in personal behavior leading to mitigation but instead seems to be associated more with finger-pointing. 

Published in Political Geography, Anselm Vogler's Barking up the tree wrongly? How national security strategies frame climate and other environmental change as security issues reviews national security policies as they relate to climate change from the perspective of 93  countries and finds common patterns of failure, notably including a focus on climate-driven migration as a threat for countries that themselves are substantially responsible for pressure to move. Injustice of this kind is sure to stoke geopolitical tension and hence is itself a national security failure shared by many hands. 

From this week's government/NGO section, some independent analysis by the Rhodium Group of the potential impact of the USA's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (assuming we in the US don't allow it to be truncated by combustion-loving hydrocarbon-addled cavemen). Taking Stock 2023. US Emissions Projections after the Inflation Reduction Act: 

The full suite of current policies as of June 2023 drives U.S. emissions to 32-51% below 2005 levels in 2035. Along the way, the U.S. will achieve a 29-42% reduction in GHGs in 2030—a meaningful departure from previous years’ expectations for the U.S. emissions trajectory, but not enough for the U.S. to meet its pledge under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. The difference between the authors' estimate’s low and high ends is primarily driven by faster economic growth, cheaper fossil fuels, and more expensive clean energy technologies.

125 articles in 60 journals by 652 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming, Qiao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40641-y

Observations of climate change, effects

Analysis of climatic trends in climate divisions of Oklahoma, USA, Singh et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04581-3

How Unexpected Was the 2022 Summertime Heat Extremes in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River?, Hua et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104269

Possible influences of spring Barents Sea ice shrinking on Chinese heat wave events, Qianrong et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8192

Reference evapotranspiration during the growing season in Poland (central Europe) in response to ongoing climate changes (1966–2020), Ara?ny et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8216

Spatiotemporal Variation of Temperature Extremes over the Arctic Lands Based on In Situ and Reanalysis Data, Zhao et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0633.1

Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries, Montanari et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adg8304

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

An exploratory approach to estimate point emission sources, Lopes et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.120026

Verifying Methane Inventories and Trends With Atmospheric Methane Data, Worden et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av000871

When the fraction of attributable risk does not inform the impact associated with anthropogenic climate change, Brown, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03591-4

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Accelerated Rate of Sea Ice Decline in CMIP6 Historical Simulations, Lee et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0539.1

Greenhouse Warming Reduces Global Energy Conversion Into Oceanic Lee Waves, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104467

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

Projected changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events over Central Africa from COSMO-CLM simulations under the global warming level of 1.5°C and above, Fotso?Kamga et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8208

Rainfall and Salinity Effects on Future Pacific Climate Change, Kim et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003457

Stratosphere-troposphere Coupling of Extreme Stratospheric Wave Activity in CMIP6 Models, Ding et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038811

The impact of horizontal resolution on the representation of atmospheric circulation types in Western Europe using the MPI-ESM model, Ibebuchi, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8214

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Drivers of surface ocean acidity extremes in an Earth system model, Burger & Frölicher, Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007785

Cryosphere & climate change

CRYO, Wright et al., Microscopy and Microanalysis Open Access pdf 10.1017/s1431927603440518

More Snow Accelerates Legacy Carbon Emissions From Arctic Permafrost, Pedron et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av000942

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A 219-year reconstruction of April–June mean minimum temperature from the tree-ring earlywood density on the Changbai Mountains, China, Abudureheman et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8196

Chasing interannual marine paleovariability, Thirumalai & Maupin, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023pa004723

High productivity at high latitudes? Photosynthesis and leaf ecophysiology in Arctic forests of the Eocene, Konrad et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 10.1029/2023pa004685

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A coupled land–sea approach to coral-reef conservation in a warming ocean, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-023-02280-7

A soil-air temperature model to determine the start of season phenology of deciduous forests, Klinek et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109638

Alpine burrow-sharing mammals and birds show similar population-level climate change risks, Chen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01772-8

Climate casualties or human disturbance? Shrinking distribution of the three large carnivores in the Greater Himalaya, , The Indian Army on the Western Front Open Access 10.1017/cbo9781139226387.009

Climate change–induced stress disrupts ectomycorrhizal interaction networks at the boreal–temperate ecotone, Fernandez et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2221619120

Climate forcing of regional deep-sea biodiversity documented by benthic foraminifera, Schmiedl et al., Earth Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104540

Demographic consequences of an extreme heat wave are mitigated by spatial heterogeneity in an annual monkeyflower, McDonald et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10397

Detecting climate signals cascading through levels of biological organization, Gamelon et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01760-y

Ericoid shrub encroachment shifts aboveground–belowground linkages in three peatlands across Europe and Western Siberia, Buttler et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16904

Impacts of ocean warming on echinoderms: A meta-analysis, Lang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10307

Marine heatwaves threaten cryptic coral diversity and erode associations among coevolving partner, Starko et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adf0954

Pacific oysters do not compensate growth retardation following extreme acidification events, Lutier et al., Biology Letters 10.1098/rsbl.2023.0185

Warmer springs increase potential for temporal reproductive isolation among habitat patches in subalpine flowering plants, Rivest et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14175

Water level drawdown makes boreal peatland vegetation more responsive to weather conditions, Köster et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16907

Whole-soil-profile warming does not change microbial carbon use efficiency in surface and deep soils, Zhang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2302190120

Widespread habitat loss and redistribution of marine top predators in a changing ocean, Braun et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adi2718

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon From 1994 to 2014, Müller et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av000875

Dimethylated sulfur, methane and aerobic methane production in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc019736

Human footprints in the Global South accelerate biomass carbon loss in ecologically sensitive regions, Geng et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16900

More Snow Accelerates Legacy Carbon Emissions From Arctic Permafrost, Pedron et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023av000942

Permafrost thaw causes large carbon loss in boreal peatlands while changes to peat quality are limited, Harris et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16894

Permafrost Wetlands Are Sources of Dissolved Iron and Dissolved Organic Carbon to the Amur-Mid Rivers in Summer, Tashiro et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007481

Quantification of discharge-specific effects on dissolved organic matter export from major Arctic rivers from 1982 through 2019, Clark et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2023gb007854

Seasonality Drives Carbon Emissions along a Stream Network, Conroy et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007439

Spatial and Seasonal Variations in Dissolved Methane Across a Large Lake, Peacock et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007668

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

The challenge of selecting an appropriate soil organic carbon simulation model: A comprehensive global review and validation assessment, Garsia et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16896

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Impact of Climate on the Global Capacity for Enhanced Rock Weathering on Croplands, Baek et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003698

Soil carbon sequestration potential bounded by population growth, land availability, food production, and climate change, Keel et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2244456

Decarbonization

A multi-criteria performance assessment of concentrated solar power plants for site and technology selection in Egypt, Bayoumi et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13762-023-05114-1

A user-centric assessment of solar-photovoltaic-home-lighting systems in rural parts of Assam, India, Dhiman et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101290

An integrated system with functions of solar desalination, power generation and crop irrigation, Wang et al., Nature Water 10.1038/s44221-023-00118-0

Carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution, Chanut et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2304318120

Heterogeneous effects of battery storage deployment strategies on decarbonization of provincial power systems in China, Peng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40337-3

Hydrogen as an energy carrier: properties, storage methods, challenges, and future implications, Hassan et al., Environment Systems and Decisions 10.1007/s10669-023-09932-z

Performance evaluation of large-scale photovoltaic power plant in Saharan climate of Algeria based on real data, Bendaas et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101293

Quantitative risk assessment of China's first liquid hydrogen refueling station, Yuan et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.14207

Solid Electrolyte: Strategies to Address the Safety of All Solid-State Batteries, Park et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access pdf 10.1002/aesr.202300074

Stability follows efficiency based on the analysis of a large perovskite solar cells ageing dataset, Hartono et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40585-3

Sustainable assessment of concrete structures using BIM–LCA–AHP integrated approach, Abdelaal et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03701-3

Wind fields in Category 1-3 tropical cyclones are not fully represented in wind turbine design standards, Gomez et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039233

Geoengineering climate

Can solar radiation modification prevent a future collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet?, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01739-9

Solar radiation management with a tethered sun shield, Szapudi, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2307434120

Aerosols

How the extreme 2019–2020 Australian wildfires affected global circulation and adjustments, Senf et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-8939-2023

Interhemispheric Contrasts of Ocean Heat Content Change Reveals Distinct Fingerprints of Anthropogenic Climate Forcings, Shi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl102741

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate Change-related Counter-attitudinal Fake News Exposure and its Effects on Search and Selection Behavior, Taddicken & Wolff, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2023.2239516

Developing an Ad Hominem typology for classifying climate misinformation, Samoilenko & Cook, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2023.2245792

Establishing the use of climate citizens’ assemblies in Japan: their significance and challenges, Kainuma et al., Sustainability Science 10.1007/s11625-023-01389-y

Pro-environmental voting when climate change is made salient: Evidence from high-resolution flooding data, Holub & Schündeln, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000219

The strength and content of climate anger, Gregersen et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102738

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A bibliometric analysis on drought and heat indices in agriculture, De Natale et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109626

Barley yield and malt quality affected by fall and spring planting under rainfed conditions, Saygili, PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15802

Examining the impacts of climatological factors and technological advancement on wheat production: A road framework for sustainable grain production in India, Baig et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03746-4

Impacts of social capital on climate change adaptations of banana farmers in Southern China, Cishahayo et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03729-5

Irrigation benefits outweigh costs in more US croplands by mid-century, Partridge et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00889-0

Modelling the regional potential for reaching carbon neutrality in Finland: Sustainable forestry, energy use and biodiversity protection, Forsius et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01860-1

Physiological changes and behavioral responses in heat-stressed goats under humid tropical environment, Ali et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02536-x

Quantification of forest carbon flux and stock uncertainties under climate change and their use in regionally explicit decision making: Case study in Finland, Junttila et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01906-4

Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming, Molina Bacca et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Climate storylines as a way of bridging the gap between information and decision-making in hydrological risk, Caviedes-Voullième & Shepherd, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000270

Combinations of drivers that most favor the occurrence of daily precipitation extremes, Gimeno-Sotelo et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106959

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries, Montanari et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adg8304

Climate change economics

Climate policy at the Bank of England: the possibilities and limits of green central banking, DiLeo, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2245790

Counterproductive Sustainable Investing: The Impact Elasticity of Brown and Green Firms, Hartzmark & Shue, SSRN Electronic Journal 10.2139/ssrn.4359282

Investigating the effects of natural resources and institutional quality on CO2 emissions during globalization mode in developing countries, Jahanger et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-022-04638-2

Climate change and the circular economy

When do circular business models resolve barriers to residential solar PV adoption? Evidence from survey data in flanders, Van Opstal & Smeets, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113761

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A novel city-level carbon emission quota allocation method for carbon peak and neutrality targets, Tang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03433-4

Agricultural landowner perspectives on wind energy development in Alberta, Canada: insights from the lens of energy justice and democracy, Chewinski et al., Environmental Sociology Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2023.2247627

An IAD framework analysis of minigrid institutions for sustainable rural electrification in East Africa: A comparative study of Uganda and Tanzania, Namujju et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113742

An inter-provincial carbon quota study in China based on the contribution of clean energy to carbon reduction, Shi et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113770

Ancillary Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Russia, Avaliany et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-006-2948-4

Effects of government policy, socioeconomics, and weather on residential GHG emissions across subnational jurisdictions: The case of Canada, Boyce & He, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113765

Evaluating fossil fuel companies’ alignment with 1.5 °C climate pathways, Rekker et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01734-0

Household adoption modes of rooftop photovoltaic in rural China and social inequality: an energy justice perspective, Yang et al., Sustainability Science 10.1007/s11625-023-01401-5

Household adoption modes of rooftop photovoltaic in rural China and social inequality: an energy justice perspective, Yang et al., Sustainability Science 10.1007/s11625-023-01401-5

How climate policy commitments influence energy systems and the economies of US states, Bergquist & Warshaw , Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40560-y

How do they pay as they go?: Learning payment patterns from solar home system users data in Rwanda and Kenya, Mergulhão et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101295

How far is it from your home? Strategic policy and management to overcome barriers of introducing fuel-cell power generation facilities, Kim et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113746

Importance of long-term flexibility in a 100% renewable energy scenario for Japan, Kuriyama et al., Sustainability Science 10.1007/s11625-023-01392-3

Power sector effects of green hydrogen production in Germany, Kirchem & Schill, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113738

Principles for accurate GHG inventories and options for market-based accounting, Brander & Bjørn Bjørn, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02203-8

Promoting decarbonization in the power sector: How important is digital transformation?, Huang & Lin, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113735

Prosumers integration in aggregated demand response systems, Cruz et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113745

Regulatory and policy risks: Analyzing the uncertainties related to changes in government policies, regulations, and incentives affecting solar power project development and operations in Kenya, Keshavadasu, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113760

Social innovation supports inclusive and accelerated energy transitions with appropriate governance, Sovacool et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00952-w

The effects of green finance, environmental tax and industrial ecologicalization towards carbon neutrality targets in China: evidence from autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model, Peng et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03726-8

Truck platooning reshapes greenhouse gas emissions of the integrated vehicle-road infrastructure system, Cheng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-40116-0

Uncertainty of temperature rise under national determined contributions and carbon neutral policies, Chen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.07.006

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Benefits of and strategies to update premium rates in the US National Flood Insurance Program under climate change, Zhang et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.14048

Characterizing rural households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate change and extremes in Migori River Watershed, Kenya, Opiyo et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2243612

Climate change adaptation activities planning and implementation in large cities: results of research carried out in Poland and selected European cities, Pancewicz et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03581-6

Gender dimensions of climate change adaptation in Tigray, Ethiopia, Assefa & Gebrehiwot, Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102737

Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications, Scown et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102736

Incidental Adaptation: The Role of Non-climate Regulations, Bento et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00793-3

On the benefits of insurance and disaster risk management integration for improved climate-related natural catastrophe resilience, Sheehan et al., Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-023-09929-8

Two faces of vulnerability: Distinguishing susceptibility to harm and system resilience in climate adaptation, Shockley, WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.856

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate and health benefits of a transition from gas to electric cooking, Gould et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2301061120

Higher Temperatures in Socially Vulnerable US Communities Increasingly Limit Safe Use of Electric Fans for Cooling, Parsons et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gh000809

Universal thermal climate index in the Arctic in an era of climate change: Alaska and Chukotka as a case study, Grigorieva et al., International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-023-02531-2

Climate change & geopolitics

A blessing or a curse? China’s Arctic involvement and its environmental policy to prevent further climatic change and pollution, , New Scientist Open Access 10.1016/s0262-4079(20)30825-3

Barking up the tree wrongly? How national security strategies frame climate and other environmental change as security issues, Vogler, Political Geography Open Access 10.1016/j.polgeo.2023.102893

Low-carbon warfare, Depledge et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01763-9

Other

A comparative study on the environmental impact of cast in situ concrete and industrialized building systems: a life cycle assessment approach, Delnavaz et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03738-4

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’, Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Taking Stock 2023. US Emissions Projections after the Inflation Reduction Act, King et al., Rhodium Group

The authors provide a projection of future U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, under current policy and expectations for economic growth, future fossil fuel prices, and clean energy cost and performance trends. The current policy baseline that the authors model includes meaningful congressional action on climate change in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The full suite of current policies as of June 2023 drives U.S. emissions to 32-51% below 2005 levels in 2035. Along the way, the U.S. will achieve a 29-42% reduction in GHGs in 2030—a meaningful departure from previous years’ expectations for the U.S. emissions trajectory, but not enough for the U.S. to meet its pledge under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. The difference between the authors' estimate’s low and high ends is primarily driven by faster economic growth, cheaper fossil fuels, and more expensive clean energy technologies.

Changing Climate for the Insurance Sector: Research and Insights, Aglialoro et al., Ceres, Persefoni, and ERM

As the climate crisis intensifies, the insurance industry finds itself uniquely exposed. Its investment patterns create financial and reputational climate-related risk, while its underwriting helps greenhouse gas-intensive industries continue operations contributing to global warming. In their roles as underwriters, insurers are moving to curtail their exposure to climate-related risk, with a growing number ceasing to offer certain policies in some locations. However, there is less evidence that insurers are making their investment portfolios equally as climate resilient as their underwriting portfolios. The authors conducted research into the relationship between the fossil fuel industry and the United States insurance industry, focusing on an analysis of the insurance sector’s investments in fossil fuel-related assets. Quantitative analysis of a large dataset of U.S. insurers’ 2019 assets, compiled by the California Department of Insurance, yields a number of insights into fossil fuel-related investment patterns in the insurance industry, including the specific types of fossil fuel-related assets (tar sands, coal, oil & gas, and corporate utilities) held. The report also builds on insights from interviews and focus groups with insurance company investment teams, regulators, and senior subject matter experts.

Resilient Muncie Climate Action Plan, City of Muncie, Indiana

As the world edges towards irreversible climate change, Muncie will need to prepare for those changes. Increasingly intense weather events, flooding, and extreme heat days will all directly affect Muncie. So too will the need to accommodate and promote electric vehicle transportation into this new era of global emissions reduction policies. Muncie must get ahead of these climatic and cultural shifts to ensure a prosperous and stable future for its residents. The climate plan aims to: 1. Describe the current and future state of the climate crisis 2. Describe Muncie's role in that crisis through greenhouse gas emissions 3. Explain what Muncie has accomplished thus far to reduce emissions and bolster climate resiliency 4. Set up realistic strategies for Muncie to reduce its emissions now and into the future Through these efforts, a more resilient Muncie can be secured.

H1 2023 Natural Catastrophe Report, Bowen et al., Gallagher Re

The first six months of 2023 featured above-average natural catastrophe losses as NOAA declared the official arrival of El Niño1 which was poised to bring further influence on global weather/climate events through the end of the year. Total direct economic losses from natural hazards were preliminarily estimated at $138B. The cost covered by private insurance or public insurance entities tallied $52B. This marked a protection gap of 63% ($86B). The H1 totals for solely weather/climate events (excluding earthquakes or other non-atmospheric-driven perils) were $92B (economic) and$46B (insured). These totals, which may be rounded in some cases, are subject to change as loss development occurs and new data is obtained in the weeks and months ahead.

Recycled Plastics in Infrastructure: Current Practices, Understanding, and Opportunities, Transportation Research Board, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

The authors found that in the U.S., most plastic waste is disposed of in landfills, but a significant amount also ends up as litter on land, rivers, and oceans. Today, less than 10 percent of plastic waste is recycled in the U.S. annually. The use of recycled plastics in infrastructure applications has the potential to help expand the market and demand for plastics recycling. The authors emphasize that pursuing the recycling of plastics in infrastructure depends on goals, policy, and economics. To that end, life cycle economic and environmental assessments should be conducted to inform policies on plastic waste reuse.

The Blue Carbon Reservoirs from Maine to Long Island, NY, Colarusso et al., Environmental Protection Agency

The authors developed an inventory of blue carbon stocks from Maine to Long Island, New York. They focused their inventory efforts on salt marshes and eelgrass meadows, leveraging existing habitat maps for geographic data. Existing data for soil organic carbon stocks were then used to calculate blue carbon stock estimates. For visual display purposes, sediment carbon heat maps were developed to highlight areas of greatest carbon accumulation. Based on available data and the authors' calculations, the target geographic area has an estimated 218,222 acres of eelgrass meadows, salt marsh, and saline Phragmites are estimated to provide a reservoir of 7,523,568 megagrams of blue carbon or the equivalent of the annual carbon emissions from over 5,944,024 passenger vehicles. Due to data limitations, the carbon stock estimate represents a mere fraction of the actual quantity of accumulated carbon in these habitats.

Workers and the Green-Energy Transition: Evidence from 300 Million Job Transitions, Curtis et al., Wake Forest University, Lightcast, and the University of Pennsylvania

Using micro-data representing over 130 million online work profiles, the authors explore transitions into and out of jobs most likely to be affected by a transition away from carbon-intensive production technologies. Exploiting detailed textual data on job title, firm name, occupation, and industry to focus on workers employed in carbon-intensive (“dirty”) and non-carbon-intensive (“green”) jobs, they found that the rate of transition from dirty to green jobs is rising rapidly, increasing tenfold over the period 2005-2021 including a significant uptick in EV-related jobs in recent years. Overall, however, fewer than 1 percent of all workers who leave a dirty job appear to transition to a green job. In addition, they found that the persistence of employment within dirty industries varies enormously across local labor markets; in some states, over half of all transitions out of dirty jobs are into other dirty jobs. Older workers and those without a college education appear less likely to make transitions to green jobs, and more likely to transition to other dirty jobs, other jobs, or nonemployment. When accounting for the fact that green jobs tend to have later start dates, it appears that green and dirty jobs have roughly comparable job durations.

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Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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Previous edition

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