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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

What the science says...

The IPCC surface temperature projections have been extremely accurate thus far.

1990 IPCC FAR

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) First Assessment Report (FAR)was published in 1990. The FAR used simple global climate models to estimate changes in the global-mean surface air temperature under various CO2 emissions scenarios. Details about the climate models used by the IPCC are provided in Chapter 6.6 of the report.

The IPCC FAR ran simulations using various emissions scenarios and climate models. The emissions scenarios included business as usual (BAU) and three other scenarios (B, C, D) in which global human greenhouse gas emissions began slowing in the year 2000. The FAR's projected BAU greenhouse gas (GHG) radiative forcing (global heat imbalance) in 2010 was approximately 3.5 Watts per square meter (W/m2). In the B, C, D scenarios, the projected 2011 forcing was nearly 3 W/m2. The actual GHG radiative forcing in 2011 was approximately 2.8 W/m2, so to this point, we're actually closer to the IPCC FAR's lower emissions scenarios.

The IPCC FAR ran simulations using models with climate sensitivities (the total amount of global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, including amplifying and dampening feedbacks) of 1.5°C (low), 2.5°C (best), and 4.5°C (high) for doubled CO2 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: IPCC FAR projected global warming in the BAU emissions scenario using climate models with equilibrium climate sensitivities of 1.5°C (low), 2.5°C (best), and 4.5°C (high) for doubled atmospheric CO2

Figure 2 accounts for the lower observed global heat imbalance than in the IPCC BAU projection, and compares its 'Best' adjusted projection with the observed global surface warming since 1990.

Figure 2: IPCC FAR BAU global surface temperature projection adjusted to reflect observed GHG radiative forcings 1990-2011 (blue) vs. observed surface temperature changes (average of GISS, NCDC, and HadCRUT4; red).

The IPCC FAR 'Best' BAU projected rate of warming (0.2°C per decade) is within the uncertainty range of the observed rate of warming (0.15 ± 0.08°C per decade) since 1990.

1997 IPCC SAR

Updated on 2012-12-22 by dana1981.

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1990 IPCC FAR

1997 IPCC SAR