Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2025

Posted on 13 March 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Would Adding the Anthropocene to the Geologic Time Scale Matter?, McCarthy et al., AGU Advances:

The extraordinary fossil fuel-driven outburst of consumption and production since the mid-twentieth century has fundamentally altered the way the Earth System works. Although humans have impacted their environment for millennia, justification for a new interval of geologic time lies in the radical shift in the geologic record that marks this “Great Acceleration” of the human enterprise. The rejection of a proposal to define the beginning of the Anthropocene epoch with a “golden spike” in varved sediments from Crawford Lake, Canada, means that we officially we still live in the Holocene, when in practical terms we do not. Formal recognition of the Anthropocene will acknowledge the facts supporting global warming and many other planetary changes that are irreversible on geologic time scales, aligning the Earth Sciences with geologic, planetary and societal reality.

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather, Kelder et al., Nature Communications:

We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

Storylines of Unprecedented Extremes in the Southeast United States, Masukwedza et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:

Disaster planning based on historical events is like driving forward while only looking in the rearview mirror. To expand our field of view, we use a large ensemble of weather simulations to characterize the current risk of extreme weather events in case study locations in the southeastern United States. We find that extreme temperature events have become more frequent between 1981 and 2021, and heavy precipitation events are also more frequent in the wettest months. Combining a historical analysis of people’s recent experience with the rate of change of extreme events, we define four quadrants that apply to groups of case studies: “sitting ducks,” “recent rarity,” “living memory,” and “fading memory.” A critical storyline is that of the sitting ducks: locations where we find a high rate of increase in extreme events and where the most extreme event in recent memory (1981–2021) has a low return period in today’s climate. We find that these locations have a high potential for surprise. For example, in Montgomery County, Alabama, the most extreme temperature event since 1981 has a return period of 13 years in the climate of 2021. In these places, we offer unprecedented synthetic events from the large ensemble for use in disaster preparedness simulations to help people imagine the unprecedented. Our results not only document substantial changes in the risk of extremes in the southeastern United States but also propose a generalizable framework for using large ensembles in disaster preparedness simulations in a changing climate.

Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming, Higgins et al., Geophysical Research Letters:

Despite advances in our understanding of changes to severe weather events due to climate change, uncertainty regarding rare extreme events persists. Atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are directly responsible for the majority of precipitation extremes on the US West Coast, are projected to intensify in a warming world. In this study, we utilize two unique large-ensemble climate models to examine rare extreme AR events under various warming scenarios. By quantifying changes to rare extremes, we can gain some insight into the potential for these destructive unprecedented events to occur in the future. Additionally, the abundance of data used in this study enables changes to both seasonal extreme AR occurrences and changes to extremes during various synoptic-scale flow patterns to be explored. From this analysis, we find substantial changes to AR extremes under even mild warming scenarios with disproportionately large changes during weather regimes that are conducive to AR activity.

One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change, Hamed et al., Communications Earth & Environment:

In 2012, soybean crops failed in the three largest producing regions due to spatially compounded hot and dry weather across North and South America. Here, we present different impact storylines of the 2012 event, calculated by combining a statistical crop model with climate model simulations of 2012 conditions under pre-industrial, present-day (+1 °C), and future (+2 °C) conditions. These simulations use the ECHAM6 climate model and maintain the same observed seasonally evolving atmospheric circulation. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic warming strongly amplifies the impacts of such a large-scale circulation pattern on global soybean production. Although the drought intensity is similar under different warming levels, larger crop losses are driven not only by warmer temperatures but also by stronger heat-moisture interactions. We estimate that one-third of the global soybean production deficit in 2012 is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Future warming (+2 °C above pre-industrial) would further exacerbate production deficits by one-half compared to present-day 2012 conditions. This highlights the increasing intensity of global soybean production shocks with warming, requiring urgent adaptation strategies.

Climate-Driven Sea Level Rise Exacerbates Alaskan and Cascadian Tsunami Hazards in Southern California: Implications to Design Parameters, Sepúlveda & Mosqueda, Earth's Future:

Climate-change-driven sea level rise is expected to worsen tsunami hazards in the long term. Tsunami waves will be able to propagate over rising sea levels that will enable them to inundate higher land. In this study, we quantify the increase of tsunami hazards in Southern California due to sea level rise. We consider tsunamis originated in the Alaska and Cascadia subduction zones. Changes of tsunami design parameters, as a result of the sea level rise, are also analyzed. Namely, we analyze the changes of the “maximum considered tsunami” (MCT) elevation, defined as the elevation exceeded with probability 2% in 50 years. We find that earthquakes of the Alaska Subduction Zone constitute the main tsunamigenic contributor. We also find that sea level rise increases MCT tsunami elevations by 0.3 m. With this increase, MCT levels reach 2 m in San Pedro Bay and San Diego. We compare the impact of sea level rise exacerbating tsunami hazards with the impact of common uncertainty sources of tsunami hazard assessment models. The uncertainty of earthquake models, for example, can produce differences in MCT levels that are comparable to the SLR influence.

Greenhouse gases reduce the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit, Parker et al., Nature Sustainability:

Anthropogenic contributions of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere have been observed to cause cooling and contraction in the thermosphere, which is projected to continue for many decades. This contraction results in a secular reduction in atmospheric mass density where most satellites operate in low Earth orbit. Decreasing density reduces drag on debris objects and extends their lifetime in orbit, posing a persistent collision hazard to other satellites and risking the cascading generation of more debris. This work uses projected CO2 emissions from the shared socio-economic pathways to investigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit. The instantaneous Kessler capacity is introduced to compute the maximum number and optimal distribution of characteristic satellites that keep debris populations in stable equilibrium. Modelled CO2 emissions scenarios from years 2000–2100 indicate a potential 50–66% reduction in satellite carrying capacity between the altitudes of 200 and 1,000 km. Considering the recent, rapid expansion in the number of satellites in low Earth orbit, understanding environmental variability and its impact on sustainable operations is necessary to prevent over-exploitation of the region.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Women and girls continue to bear disproportionate impacts of heatwaves in South Sudan that have become a constant threat, Kew et al., World Weather Attribution

Extreme heat has affected a large region of continental eastern Africa since mid-February. Extreme daytime temperatures have been recorded in South Sudan particularly affecting people in poor housing and outdoor workers, a very large part of the population. Scientists from Burkina Faso, Kenya, Uganda, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Mexico, Chile, the United States, and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in the region and to what extent the impacts particularly affected women and girls. When combining the observation-based analysis with climate models, to quantify the role of climate change in this 7-day heat event, the authors find that climate models underestimate the increase in heat found in observations. They can thus only give a conservative estimate of the influence of human-induced climate change. Based on the combined analysis they conclude that climate change made the extreme heat at least 2C hotter and at least 10 times more likely.

The Growing Threat of Catastrophic Flooding in Rural America, Rebecca Anderson and Shannon McNeeley, The Pacific Institute

The frequency and severity of catastrophic flooding events are rising throughout the U.S. and many rural communities are at high risk. Climate change is driving more intense and frequent extreme precipitation events, increasing the likelihood of catastrophic flooding across the U.S. in the future. Rural communities face unique challenges in preparing for and recovering from catastrophic flooding, shaped by factors like geography, social vulnerabilities, and limited resources. Leveraging the extant strengths and assets of rural communities is essential for building resilience and effectively preparing for catastrophic flooding.

170 articles in 66 journals by 1274 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A half-century drying in Gobi Oasis, possible role of ENSO and warming/moistening of Northwest China, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104769

Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales, Cvijanovic et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02059-w

Climate-Induced Polar Motion: 1900–2100, Kiani Shahvandi & Soja, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113405

Distinct Impacts of Increased Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Heat Transport on Arctic Ocean Warming and Sea Ice Decline, Cheng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021178

Energy Gain Kernel for Climate Feedbacks. Part II: Spatial Pattern of Surface Amplification Factor and Its Dependency on Climate Mean State, Hu et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-24-0079.1

Greenhouse gases reduce the satellite carrying capacity of low Earth orbit, Parker et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-025-01512-0

On the Spreading of Glacial Meltwater in the Western North Atlantic. Part I: Role of Dynamical Instabilities, Marchal & Condron, Journal of Physical Oceanography 10.1175/jpo-d-23-0170.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Causality in the Winter Interaction Between Extratropical Storm Tracks, Atmospheric Circulation, and Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Mousavizadeh et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042128

Climate Change Impact on Extreme Temperatures and Heat Waves in Armenia, Gevorgyan et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8802

Climatology and Trends of Various Oceanic and Atmospheric Parameters in the Arabian Sea Over the Last 45 Years, Anusree et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8818

Cold-Season Precipitation Trend in Subtropical East Asia Tied to Shifting Westerlies: Role of Tibetan Plateau, He, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0177.1

Differences in Temperature Variation Between Winter and Summer Across China in Recent Decades, Shi & Wu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8828

Increased Atmospheric Aridity and Reduced Precipitation Drive the 2023 Extreme Wildfire Season in Canada, Lai & Zhang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114492

Increasing soil nitrous acid emissions driven by climate and fertilization change aggravate global ozone pollution, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-57161-6

Observed Warming and Weakening of the Philippine Sea Deep Circulation Over the Past Decade, Xu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc022017

One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change, Hamed et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x

Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected, Terhaar et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z

Shifts in organic matter character and microbial assemblages from glacial headwaters to downstream reaches in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, Drapeau et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-1369-2025

Temperature rising, Philander, Open Access 10.1515/9780691187440

The Changing Nature of Atmospheric Rivers, Henny & Kim Bogatyrev , Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0234.1

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Comprehensive Evidence That Detecting Urban Signals in Large-Scale Warming Is Highly Uncertain, Shen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115032

The Examination of an Improved Analogue Method for Gridded Temperature Variation Reconstruction, Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8755

The Need for Better Monitoring of Climate Change in the Middle and Upper Atmosphere, Añel et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001465

Unveiling coastal change across the Arctic with full Landsat collections and data fusion, Nylén et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114696

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Calibrating the simulated summer precipitation trend over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 models using a sub-selection method, Luo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.005

Future MJO Change and Its Impact on Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Over the Western US in CMIP6, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042123

Global Greening Major Contributed by Climate Change With More Than Two Times Rate Against the History Period During the 21th Century, Zhang et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70126

Lessened projections of Arctic warming and wetting after correcting for model errors in global warming and sea ice cover, Cai et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adr6413

Projections on Regional Climate and Compound Events in East Asia Based on QDM-Corrected Multiple High-Resolution CORDEX Simulations, Chen et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8824

Sensitivity of European blocking to physical parameters in a large ensemble climate model experiment, Woollings et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1295

Substantial Contraction of Dense Shelf Water in the Ross Sea Under Future Climate Scenarios, Xie et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112581

The Projection of Extreme Heat and Precipitation Events in China Response to Global Warming Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 Scenarios, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8807

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations, Simpson et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adt8035

Impact of ocean data assimilation on the sub-polar North Atlantic in MPI-ESM, Brune & Koul, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4922

Toward Dynamical Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction Using the IAP-CAS Model, Tang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042580

Cryosphere & climate change

A comparison of supraglacial meltwater features throughout contrasting melt seasons: southwest Greenland, Glen et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-23

Active ice sheet conservation cannot stop the retreat of Sermeq Kujalleq glacier, Greenland, Zhao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02120-8

Basal Melting and Oceanic Observations Beneath Central Fimbulisen, East Antarctica, Lindbäck et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc020506

Evolution of supraglacial lakes over the pan-Antarctic ice sheet between 2014 and 2022: Assessment and the control factors, Shen et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.005

Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet With a Coupled Climate-Ice-Sheet Model, Leloup et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111492

Mapping subsea permafrost around Tuktoyaktuk Island (Northwest Territories, Canada) using electrical resistivity tomography, Erkens et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-997-2025

Projection of sea ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago based on CMIP6 assessments, Liang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.008

Rare ice-base temperature measurements in Antarctica reveal a cold base in contrast with predictions, Talalay et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02127-1

The freezing?thawing index and permafrost extent in pan-Arctic experienced rapid changes following the global warming hiatus, Guo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.010

The influence of subglacial lake discharge on Thwaites Glacier ice-shelf melting and grounding-line retreat, Gourmelen et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-57417-1

Understanding water flowpaths and origins in an Arctic Alaskan basin: Implications for permafrost hydrology under global warming, JUNG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.001

Winter subglacial meltwater detected in a Greenland fjord, Hansen et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01652-0

Sea level & climate change

Asymmetric Changes of the Subtropical Gyre Circulation and Associated Sea Level Over 1960–2018 in the Pacific Ocean, Huang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021785

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea-Level Rise?, Brand et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004149

Climate-Driven Sea Level Rise Exacerbates Alaskan and Cascadian Tsunami Hazards in Southern California: Implications to Design Parameters, Sepúlveda & Mosqueda, Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005435

Evaluating Current Statistical and Dynamical Forecasting Techniques for Seasonal Coastal Sea Level Prediction, Long et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0214.1

Evaluation of the Budget of Local Sea Level Trends Along the Coast of Canada and Northern USA During 1958–2015, Zhai et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021000

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Arctic Warming Suppressed by Remnant Glacial Ice Sheets in Past Interglacials, Hirose et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111798

Introduction to a Special Collection—Illuminating a Warmer World: Insights From the Paleogene, Westerhold et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 10.1029/2025pa005101

Reconstruction of climatic events from the 16th century in Transylvania: interdisciplinary analysis based on historical sources, Gaceu et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1507143

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Assessing Assisted Natural Regeneration as a Cost-Efficient Mitigation for Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss in China, Qiu et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005257

Between shells and seas: Effects of ocean acidification on calcification and osmoregulation in yellow clam (Amarilladesma mactroides), Medeiros et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107083

Climate but Not Land Use Influences Body Size of Fowler's Toad (Anaxyrus fowleri), Blackwood et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71024

Climate change and variability drive increasing exposure of marine heatwaves across US estuaries, Nardi et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-91864-6

Climate-growth relationships and paleoclimate potential of Austrocedrus chilensis revisited by extending its tree-ring network in Argentina, Marcotti et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126309

Contrasting Trends in Onset of Spring Green-Up Between Grasslands and Forests in China, Hu et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005379

Current hydroclimatic spaces will be breached in half of the world’s humid high-elevation tropical ecosystems, Rubiano et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02087-6

Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics of Plant–Soil Feedbacks Explain the Spread Potential of a Plant Invader Under Climate Warming and Biocontrol Herbivory, Sun et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70110

Evolving landscapes: long term land use and climate-induced changes in the Brahmaputra floodplain, Saeed et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1550450

Functional Diversity Explains Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Subtropical Forests, Wu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70120

Impact of Climate Change on the Narrow Endemic Herb Psilopeganum sinense (Rutaceae) in China, Deng et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71042

Impacts of extreme climate events on vegetation succession at the northern foothills of Yinshan mountain, inner Mongolia, Zhou et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1524400

Long-term tree growth-climate relationships of Fagus orientalis Lipsky at high-elevation forest edges in the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran, Moradi et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126306

Marine ecosystem role in setting up preindustrial and future climate, Tjiputra et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-57371-y

Narrow Margins: Aerobic Performance and Temperature Tolerance of Coral Reef Fishes Facing Extreme Thermal Variability, Vaughan et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70100

Network Assemblages of Elevational Niche-Associated Diversity in Fijian Native Bees, Slattery et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71073

Phosphorus addition mitigates the combined negative effects of high temperature and nitrogen stress on corals, Zhou et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107075

Postglacial Recolonization of the Southern Ocean by Elephant Seals Occurred From Multiple Glacial Refugia, Berg et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2024.11.18.622576

Prediction of the change in suitable growth area of Sabina tibetica on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau using MaxEnt model, Li et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1465416

Rapid Evolution in Action: Environmental Filtering Supports Coral Adaptation to a Hot, Acidic, and Deoxygenated Extreme Habitat, Leiva et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70103

Recent declines in radial growth and wood density characterize dieback in European beech and pedunculate oak, González de Andrés et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126300

Simulated Climate Change Enhances Microbial Drought Resilience in Ethiopian Croplands but Not Forests, Hicks et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70065

Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change, Aguirre-Gutiérrez et al., Science 10.1126/science.adl5414

Upslope plant species shifts in Mesoamerican cloud forests driven by climate and land use change, Ramírez-Barahona et al., Science 10.1126/science.adn2559

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Assessing the contribution of Tidal Flats to climate change and carbon neutrality through modeling approaches., Yang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107067

Building Bridges: A Narrative Literature Review of Spanish and Portuguese-Language Climate Change Communication Scholarship from Latin America, Takahashi et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2025.2458229

Carbon Burial (in)Efficiency: Tracking the Molecular Fingerprint of In Situ Organic Matter Burial Using a 30-Year Freeze-Core Series From a Northern Boreal Lake (Nylandssjön, Sweden), Bindler et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008397

Determining the key meteorological factors affecting atmospheric CO₂ and CH₄ using machine learning algorithms at a suburban site in China, Liu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102312

Estimation of carbon stock in the reed wetland of Weishan county in China based on Sentinel satellite series, Lu et al., Carbon Research Open Access 10.1007/s44246-025-00194-9

Global Fossil Methane Emissions Constrained by Multi-Isotopic Atmospheric Methane Histories, Fujita et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041266

High Methane Production and Emission From Tropical Seagrasses Through Methylotrophic Methanogenesis, Dai et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113824

Higher temperature sensitivity of forest soil methane oxidation in colder climates, Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-57763-0

Impact of climate-induced water-table drawdown on carbon and nitrogen sequestration in a Kobresia-dominated peatland on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Yang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02168-6

Inconsistent influence of temperature, precipitation, and CO2 variations on the plateau alpine vegetation carbon flux, Dong & Wang, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-025-00975-4

Land-Air Exchanges of Various Gaseous Nitrogen Species in an Urban Wetland Based on In Situ Flux Observations, Yu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113265

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with nuclear power generation in the United States, Ng et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.70008

Methane emissions from thermokarst lakes must emphasize the ice-melting impact on the Tibetan Plateau, Mu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-025-57745-2

Preferential Groundwater Discharges Along Stream Corridors Are Disregarded Sources of Greenhouse Gases, Bisson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008395

Response mechanism of subtropical forest carbon balance to climate change based on InTEC model, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1526743

Simulating ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes and their associated influencing factors for a restored peatland, He et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-1355-2025

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands, He et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2024gb008372

The Importance of Ditches and Canals in Global Inland Water CO2 and N2O Budgets, Silverthorn et al., Open Access 10.22541/au.173998478.86639498/v1

The interactions of carbon emission driving forces: Analysis based on interpretable machine learning, Dong et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102323

The Response of Carbon Uptake to Soil Moisture Stress: Adaptation to Climatic Aridity, Mengoli et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70098

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A Study on Effect of Number of Low-Permeability Layers on Geological Carbon Sequestration in an Open Aquifer, Gupta et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2334

Resilient tree-planting strategies for carbon dioxide removal under compounding climate and economic uncertainties, Cho et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2320961122

Decarbonization

Assessment of Hydrogen's Climate Impact Is Affected by Model OH Biases, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112445

Controls of Ecohydrological Grassland Dynamics in Agrivoltaic Systems, Paschalis et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005183

Developing Offshore Wind Farms in Aotearoa New Zealand: An Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions, Materials and Energy Implications, Pincelli et al., Wind Energy Open Access 10.1002/we.70009

One-step CO2 electrolysis and separations via a reversed gas diffusion electrode, Phalkun et al., Nature Chemical Engineering 10.1038/s44286-025-00195-w

Optimizing battery energy storage and solar photovoltaic systems for lower-to-middle-income schools amidst load-shedding, Michael-Ahile et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101675

Sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations: Reviewing research, market and societal trends, Hasanefendic et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104018

Tungsten Carbide Nanoparticles Embedded in Carbon Nanofoam Composites for Efficient Electrocatalytic Hydrogen Evolution, Chaitoglou et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202500016

Worldwide rooftop photovoltaic electricity generation may mitigate global warming, Zhang et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02276-3

Geoengineering climate Black carbon

Black carbon and mineral dust in snow and ice pose risks on the Asian water tower, Zhang et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121127

Aerosols Climate change communications & cognition

The Parrot and the Igloo: Climate and the Science Denial, Collyn & Kelen, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2477265

The Role of Neologisms in the Climate Change Debate: Can New Words Help to Speed Up Social Change?, Zella et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70004

“Climate Change is Real, but I Don't Wanna Talk About It”: Unraveling Spiral of Silence Effects Regarding Climate Change Among Midwestern American Farmers, Vu et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2477260

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change mitigation and livelihood components under smallholder coffee farming: a bibliographic and systematic review, Kishaija et al., Agriculture & Food Security Open Access 10.1186/s40066-025-00522-7

Climate Change Perceptions and Adaptive Behavior Among Smallholder Farmers in Northeast Madagascar, Barrett et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000501

Climate Modulation of Crop Yield over the South African Highlands, Jury, Earth Interactions Open Access 10.1175/ei-d-24-0007.1

How do agricultural socialization services drive green transition of farmers’ grain production under “dual-carbon” targets: an analysis of moderating effects based on factor allocation, Wang & Long, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1511548

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability, Murphy et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008391

Lower carbon uptake rates resulting from converting wooded Cerrado to pasture-dominated agricultural area in the Brazilian savanna, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110465

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change, Hamed et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x

Regional climate warming increases occurrence and intensity of winter wheat drought risk, Laurent et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110493

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Wine Grape Under Climate Change in Northwestern China, Liu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70826

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Vegetation and Land Surface Temperature in Saudi Arabia: Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Sites From 2010 to 2023, Assiri et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8781

The animal agriculture industry’s obstruction of campaigns promoting individual climate action, Loy & Jacquet, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2460603

Trend analysis of climate change and effect of climate-smart agricultural practices: the case of Humbo Woreda, Wolaita Zone, South Ethiopia, Tessema et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1456328

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes to Atmospheric River Related Extremes Over the United States West Coast Under Anthropogenic Warming, Higgins et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112237

Climate Change Impacts on Flood Pulse Characteristics in the Barotse Floodplain, Zambia, Mroz et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005471

Combined effects of future urban development and rainfall patterns on flood characteristics in the Qinhuai River basin, Gao et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102256

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Changes in the Source Region of Yellow River: A Bayesian Vine Copula Machine Learning (BVC-ML) Approach, Zhuang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8821

Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type, Mercurio & Patricola, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113126

Groundwater recharge in a warming world, Jung, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02286-1

How Flood Hazards in a Warming Climate Could Be Amplified by Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns and Mechanisms of Water Available for Runoff, Yan et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005619

Prioritization of Research on Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate, Lisonbee et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005276

Transitioning Climate Control on Snow and Streamflow Dynamics Over the Past 70 Years, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114381

Urban stormwater resilience: Global insights and strategies for climate adaptation, Fereshtehpour & Najafi, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102290

Climate change economics

Avoiding misuses of energy-economic modelling in climate policymaking, Kaufman & Bataille, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02280-7

Banks’ climate commitments: a silver lining for climate action or just hot air? First evidence from the Swiss mortgage business, Aeschlimann, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2471342

Climate change, hurricanes, and sovereign debt in the Caribbean basin, Cavallo et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2475148

International trade barriers, export and industrial resilience: An empirical study based on the EU and USA antidumping and countervailing policies on photovoltaic products, Wang & Xie, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114556

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Charging forward: A greenhouse gas emissions analysis of New York State's electric vehicle and clean energy goals, Kear et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114573

Co-benefits of carbon and pollutant emission reduction in urban transport: Sustainable pathways and economic efficiency, Weng et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102348

Gas grid regulation in the context of net zero transitions: A review of seven European countries, Rosenow et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.103987

Global supply chains and domestic climate policy: Addressing the substantial material-related carbon footprint of final consumption in France, Teixeira & Lefèvre, Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.70001

Industrial concentration in South Korea: implications for the auction design of carbon contracts for difference scheme, Jeong & Chang, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2475039

Jobs, skills and regional implications of the low carbon residential heat transition in the UK, Calvillo et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114579

Less emissions or less freight? Conflicting narratives for sustainable logistics in Norway, Russell et al., SAE Technical Paper Series Open Access 10.4271/2000-01-0942

Policing carbon markets, Calel et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2464699

Repositioning coal power to accelerate net-zero transition of China’s power system, An et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-57559-2

Spatial Heterogeneity of Plant-Level CCUS Investment Decisions in China's Cement Industry Under Various Policy Incentives, Mao et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004951

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Adaptation gaps in airports, Cheng, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02285-2

Exploring the mitigation of compound events in Barcelona: Urban water scarcity, flood risk and reduction of surface temperatures through water-sensitive urban design, Pérez Cambra et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102298

Networked shorelines: A review of vulnerability interactions between human adaptation to sea level rise and wetland migration, Balderas Guzman, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102985

Storylines of Unprecedented Extremes in the Southeast United States, Masukwedza et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-23-0297.1

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change reduces the wind chill hazard across Alaska, Kim et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02193-5

Climate-linked heat inequality in the global southern workforce: Cambodian workers’ economic and health vulnerability to high core temperatures in five occupational sectors, Parsons et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2474026

Climate change & geopolitics

The role of non-state actors in shaping UN climate change side event discussions, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02255-8

Climate change impacts on human culture Other

Contesting eco-modernist hegemony in Denmark? Green reform nexus and transformative climate advocacy in an established environmental state, Blok, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2476276

Five-years altitude statistics of noctilucent clouds based on multi-site wide-field camera survey, Ugolnikov et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106491

Governing the Climate in the Paris Era: Organized Irresponsibility, Technocratic Climate Futures, and Normalized Disasters, Steig & Oels, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70001

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Editorial: Understanding the relationship between extreme climate events and forest soil hydrology: implications for ecosystem functions, Fan et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1579133

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather, Kelder et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude, Smith et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02277-2

Prioritization of Research on Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate, Lisonbee et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005276

The implications of climate gentrification for urban climate action, Connolly, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02265-6

Time to count plastics in climate action, Noman et al., Science 10.1126/science.adu2738

Would Adding the Anthropocene to the Geologic Time Scale Matter?, McCarthy et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001430

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

2023 Year in Review: Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Potential Resources and Energy Demand, World Meteorological Organization; International Renewable Energy Agency; Copernicus Climate Change Service; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

The authors found that climate-informed and diversified energy solutions are essential if the world is to meet targets to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. The authors examine 2023 – a year that saw a transition from a La Niña to an El Niño phenomenon, affecting key climatic variables for the energy sector such as wind speed, solar radiation, precipitation, and temperature. It was also the warmest year on record until this record was broken again in 2024.

Carbon Majors: 2023 Data Update, InfluenceMap

The authors trace 33.9 GtCO2e of emissions to the 169 active entities in the Carbon Majors database in 2023, a 0.7% increase from 2022. The CO2 emissions in the database accounted for 78.4% of global fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions in 2023, with just 36 companies linked to over half of these global emissions.

Extracting Profits from the Public: How Utility Ratepayers Are Paying for Big Tech’s Power, Eliza Martin and Ari Peskoe, Harvard Law School

The authors explore how the public is paying the energy bills of some of the largest companies in the world. The authors reviewed nearly 50 regulatory proceedings about utility rates for data centers. After describing how rate-setting processes can shift utility costs among ratepayers, the authors explain how rate structures, as well as secret contracts between utilities and data centers, could be transferring Big Tech’s energy costs to the public. It also provides recommendations to limit hidden subsidies in utility rates. Finally, the authors question whether utility regulators should be making policy decisions about whether to subsidize data centers and speculate on the long-term implications of utility systems dominated by trillion-dollar software and social media companies.

Implementing Climate-Smart Conservation, Harder et al., Public Policy Institute of California

California has demonstrated a commitment to protecting its endangered freshwater species for decades. Yet despite this, most protected species have not recovered, and now a new threat multiplier is pushing many populations to the brink: climate change. The usual conservation tools cannot keep up with the pace of change; instead, the state needs to adopt a broad portfolio of climate-smart tools to conserve at-risk species. But is such change feasible? The authors show that laws such as the Endangered Species Act are not, for the most part, impediments to using the tools identified in a previous report. Rather, the problem lies with how society is applying them. To make real progress, the state must address the key issues that are hampering conservation work: permitting complexity, competition for funding, inadequate staffing, and a culture of risk aversion within agencies, water users, and environmental organizations. Although the federal government will continue to be a partner, the state should lead these efforts.

Snapshot of Clean Power in 2024, American Clean Power

The authors find America’s clean power industry set records in 2024, deploying 49 gigawatts of new capacity—33% more than in 2023. Clean energy provided 93% of all new power capacity, with nationwide installations now exceeding 313 gigawatts. This American success story includes 46 new manufacturing facilities opening across 20 states and remarkable growth in states like Mississippi, Louisiana, and Kentucky, where capacity increased by over 200%. With enough capacity to power 75 million homes and 175 gigawatts under development, this snapshot shows how clean power is delivering reliable, affordable electricity to families and businesses while strengthening our energy independence and economic security.

Rooftop Solar Reduces Costs for All Ratepayers, McCann et al., The California Solar & Storage Association

As California policymakers seek to address energy affordability in 2025, new research shows why rooftop solar can and has helped control rate escalation. This research stands in direct contrast to claims that rooftop solar is to blame for rising rates. The authors show that the real reason electricity rates have increased dramatically in recent years is out-of-control utility spending and utility profit-making, enabled by a lack of proper oversight by regulators.

CPUC Response to Executive Order N-5-24, California Public Utilities Commission

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) appreciates the opportunity to respond to Governor Newsom’s Executive Order N-5-24. The Governor’s Executive Order sets forth an imperative to mitigate the rising costs of electricity service in California. The CPUC shares this sense of urgency and resolve. In general, the customers who are purchasing less electricity are those who own their homes and can afford to buy or lease rooftop solar panels and in-home battery storage. On that basis, we know that advantaged customers are paying less fixed and operational costs while disadvantaged customers are paying more.

The Growing Threat of Catastrophic Flooding in Rural America, Rebecca Anderson and Shannon McNeeley, The Pacific Institute

The frequency and severity of catastrophic flooding events are rising throughout the U.S. and many rural communities are at high risk. Climate change is driving more intense and frequent extreme precipitation events, increasing the likelihood of catastrophic flooding across the U.S. in the future. Rural communities face unique challenges in preparing for and recovering from catastrophic flooding, shaped by factors like geography, social vulnerabilities, and limited resources. Leveraging the extant strengths and assets of rural communities is essential for building resilience and effectively preparing for catastrophic flooding.

Women and girls continue to bear disproportionate impacts of heatwaves in South Sudan that have become a constant threat, Kew et al., World Weather Attribution

Extreme heat has affected a large region of continental eastern Africa since mid-February. Extreme daytime temperatures have been recorded in South Sudan particularly affecting people in poor housing and outdoor workers, a very large part of the population. Scientists from Burkina Faso, Kenya, Uganda, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Mexico, Chile, the United States, and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in the region and to what extent the impacts particularly affected women and girls. When combining the observation-based analysis with climate models, to quantify the role of climate change in this 7-day heat event, the authors find that climate models underestimate the increase in heat found in observations. They can thus only give a conservative estimate of the influence of human-induced climate change. Based on the combined analysis they conclude that climate change made the extreme heat at least 2C hotter and at least 10 times more likely.

Targeted Electrification in New York State, Smith et al., Switchbox

New York State is rebuilding its aging natural gas distribution network. However, utilities are entirely replacing all pipes built from outdated materials, rather than surgically repairing those that are leaking, a far less profitable way to solve the problem. Utilities earn a percentage return on their capital investments. This incentivizes them to prefer capital-intensive solutions over cheaper alternatives such as lining pipes with plastic or using leak monitoring to guide targeted repairs. The authors focus on a promising alternative to leak-prone pipe replacement: targeted building electrification. Instead of replacing a pipe segment, utilities would decommission it and swap the fossil fuel appliances of affected customers with new electric models, including heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, and induction stoves. The authors found that targeted electrification is a cheaper alternative to replacing leak-prone pipes across much of the state—and that’s before factoring in the health and environmental costs of methane combustion.

Electricity Rates That Keep Bills Down after Electrification of Home Heating, Sussman et al., The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

In cold climates, once a home is electrified, its biggest electricity use in the home is space heating. The authors simulate energy bills in four regions of cold-climate U.S. states (using actual utility rates in those regions) under different home heating electrification scenarios and provide recommendations for policies and programs in those states to mitigate potential cost increases. The four states are among the most expensive in the United States for electrification and differ from most of the United States, where electrification is generally cost-effective. The authors examine energy efficiency, electricity rates, fossil fuel rates, and novel financial strategies as potential solutions to mitigate energy bill increases. To encourage adoption, they suggest how to roll out solutions with the help of behavioral science principles.

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Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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