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Philippe Chantreau at 03:50 AM on 8 August 2021Why the IPCC climate reports are so important
About that "blades are not recyclable" bit:
https://news.wsu.edu/2015/08/19/wsu-researchers-find-new-uses-for-old-windmill-blades/
The company's website:
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Xulonn at 03:00 AM on 8 August 2021Why the IPCC climate reports are so important
Cross-posted from ClimateAdam's YouTube channel:
Unfortunately, the first comment [above]...illustrates the [lack of understanding] and superficiality of many who deny the reality and severity of the AGW/CC (Anthropological Global Warming and associated Climate Change) path that our human civilization is traveling. When a person posts about "extreme predictions" and claims that "It's all a big fraud to get control of energy", I always cringe.
It is important to be aware that many people cannot - or will not attempt to - get past the simple concept of fixed "predictions" and that they do not understand the concept of "probable outcomes based on various CO2 emission scenarios."
The essence of global warming and climate change is simple. The details are not. I am a retired American living in the rainforest mountains of Western Panama, and I actually took an online course in climate science from the University of British Columbia five years ago just to get the basics right.
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Eclectic at 22:08 PM on 7 August 2021Why the IPCC climate reports are so important
Rkcannon @1 :
You surprise me with your information. Until now I had thought that the Jewish Space Lasers (exposed by US politician Marjorie Taylor Greene in 2021) were part of the secret battle of the Soros-Illuminati group against mankind's older adversaries, the Lizard People.
But I am also puzzled by your information. The Illuminati have been here on Earth for centuries , and the Lizard People for thousands of years (about 6000 years or more precisely from the very Beginning at 4004BC ). So what exactly had these two nefarious groups been doing to achieve or maintain World Domination and Control before they invented the Climate Change scam?
Please enlighten the readers here (if I may use the e-word). Please be cautious and use slightly indirect language, so that the Pegasus* app and The Algorithms* do not detect and censor you (or worse).
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Evan at 20:24 PM on 7 August 2021Why the IPCC climate reports are so important
rkcannon, the IPCC "bias" is often referred to as scientific consensus, the result of over 160 years of climate science showing conclusively that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
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rkcannon at 20:10 PM on 7 August 2021Why the IPCC climate reports are so important
IPCC is clearly biased towards man causing climate change from CO2. They have extreme predictions that are highly unlikely but the media uses that for their scare tactics. Politicians and naieve public believe it. This is why many think there is a climate emergency, which is wrong. It's all a big fraud to get control of energy. Now Biden is mandating electric cars. But these still need power plants. Windmills and solar are barely energy positive and require massive waste dumps when used up. Blades are not recyclable.
Moderator Response:[PS] This is sloganeering. You are telling us what you believe to be true, but you are not offering any evidence to support the numerous assertions in your comment. Your confident statement that: IPCC are biased; that the model result that the IPCC reports on are unlikely; that windmills are solar are barely energy positive; all need to be supported by strong evidence since numerous evidence to the contrary is readily available from reputable sources.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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MA Rodger at 18:42 PM on 7 August 2021How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
steve37341 @73,
The 20ft difference in sea level suggests you are envisioning the melt-out of Greenland in the 300ppm/27°C scenario but not (or not yet) in the 400ppm/25°C scenario. This has profound implications as the absence of an icy Arctic in the first scenario is a situation requiring millennia for the second scenario to accomplish. Can you confirm this Greenland melt-out is what you intend to confirm with this 20ft SLR?
And can we be clear that the 5,000y "steadily warming" in scenario one has now stopped?
Finally, if the 400ppm CO2 level in scenario two is continuing to increase, the rate of increase is required, as is the history of this increase - when did it begin and from what level?
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Eclectic at 14:51 PM on 7 August 2021How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
Steve @#37 ,
I must beg you for more details & more background to your questions. Are you basing your questions on real-world situations? If so, then the 25C or 27C are global average Surface Air Temperatures which have not been existent during the past 10 million years or so.
If you are talking of recent millennia, then coming from the latest "ice age" glaciation, the global SAT rose by around 5C and stayed at that Maximum (or "Optimum") for about 5000 years. Then during the past 4000 years, the SAT has gradually cooled by about 0.7C . (As you are likely aware, the PAGES12k studies indicate that the current [2020] temperature is nearly 0.5C higher than the Holocene Maximum.) During this time, the atmospheric CO2 level hovered around 280 ppm during the Holocene, and started rising during the past 2 centuries.
So your 300ppm and 400ppm scenarios are quite disconnected from the Earth's surface conditions during the past 10k , 100k , or million years.
Ocean warming is very slow, and it is the oceans which put a brake on SAT rise ~ more so than the other way around. The oceans take in more than 90% of the heat energy gained during total global warming periods, and the air itself represents only a few percentage points of the total. Which makes it difficult to get a good picture of what would happen in the abstract hypothetical situations that you pose.
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steve37341 at 12:38 PM on 7 August 2021How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
Eclectic @70, MA Rodger @71, & Bob Loblaw @72 thanks for each of your replies. I realized that I did not really give enough information about my scenario. The 25°/27° comparison was for atmosphere temperatures. Not average ocean temperatures. The average ocean temperature is the same in each situation. The only difference in the ocean variables is that in the example with the 300ppm CO2 and 27° atmosohere temperature, the sea level is 20 feet higher.
Also, the to get at the suggestion of where each situation is based on it's state, the example with the 300ppm has been steadily warming about 5000 years.
In the example of the 400ppm has been warming for about 8000 years and is still warming and the CO2 levels are continuing to increase, with the upper limit unknown.
I assume that the extra CO2 in the second example would eventually, is it stays higher long enough, would cause greater atmospheric temperatures and greater warming of the oceans. Or is this an incorrect assumption or could other variables come into play to alter that result(s)?
Another question. Assuming the mixing of the ocean waters in deep and shallow areas is relatively the same in each example, which is more important in heating more shallow areas? Higher atmosphere temperature, or higher CO2 level?
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BaerbelW at 03:17 AM on 7 August 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #31, 2021
Hi Dawei! Feedback like this is always welcome and you can provide it via the Google form linked at the bottom of each rebuttal where it says "Argument feedback". If you fill that out we can also follow up via email if need be. Thanks!
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Dawei at 01:01 AM on 7 August 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #31, 2021
On the volunteering task, which I know I missed the deadline for...in addition to cataloging existing references and fixing broken links, any desire to expand upon the citations included within the articles? Some of the articles are quite old and new research has come out that further supports the points.
On human fingerprints chart for example you cite 2 studies to back up the claim of decreasing diurnal temperature range. I have found 25 more studies that also support it.
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One Planet Only Forever at 13:02 PM on 6 August 2021What’s the carbon footprint of a wind turbine?
Wol,
Wouldn't the "grams of CO2-eq per kWh" lifecycle comparison be the correct comparison?
Note that the comparable values for fossil fuel generating operations are also provided as ranges of "grams of CO2-eq per kWh". And those fossil fuel operation lifecycle ranges would be based on a range of megawatts of rated power and operation locations.
Also note, as the article states, there are internationally developed standards for lifecycle evaluation and comparison.
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Wol at 09:43 AM on 6 August 2021What’s the carbon footprint of a wind turbine?
I see the examples above have the output as Mw, which is rather gilding the lily. The actual energy - MWh as opposed to the rated power is more indicative of the lifetime efficiency re. CO2 equivalence.
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Bob Loblaw at 05:31 AM on 6 August 2021How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
steve37341 @69,
As others have said, the question is not sufficiently detailed. To add my little bit, I ask "warmed from what state?". Or are you talking about warming from the state you mention, to some other state?
It is possible to image a state where an ocean at 25C is in equilibrium with an atmosphere at 400 ppm CO2, and another state where an ocean at 27C is at equilibrium with an atmosphere at 350 ppm CO2.
Those states could have cooled from some other stable state, due to some change in conditions - or they could have warmed to those states from yet another state. Many factors affect climate (local or global).
Eclectic's suggestion is a good one - explain more of the scenario that you are imagining, to help us understand how you arrived at your question.
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MA Rodger at 02:47 AM on 6 August 2021How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
steve37341 @69,
As Elcectic @70 suggests, the question you pose concerns a complex and dynamic situation.
But if what you ask is reduced to the question of whether a +2°C in global surface temperature is a bigger kick to the climate (and thus the ocean temperature) than a 33% increase in CO2 (from 300ppm to 400ppm), the very basic response would be the +2°C is the strongest. A simple 33% incease in CO2 would result in a forcing of +1.54Wm^-2 which for an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of +3.2°C per 3.7Wm^-2 (the central estimate of ECS) would result in a surface warming of +1.33°C.
Adding more realistic assumptions would quickly impact that result. Thus, for instance, one early added consideration is that a surface temperature increase would be greater over land than ocean raising the question of whether your +2°C is a global figure or a surface (atmosphere) increase measured over the ocean.
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BaerbelW at 02:10 AM on 6 August 2021The Conspiracy Theory Handbook: Downloads and translations
In the meantime, The Conspiracy Theory Handbook has been translated into Czech and Croatian, so we are up to 12 translations (and more are in the works)!
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citizenschallenge at 23:12 PM on 5 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
Baerbel, thank you. Yes, that clears it up quite well.
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BaerbelW at 21:09 PM on 5 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
CC @10
As far as I know we've always had the ©JC on the homepage. If you however for example go to the graphics resources, you'll see the creative commons license at the bottom of the page which also applies for our rebuttals. For blog posts, the CC-license can however not apply to everything but only for the articles created by our team - i.e. those not showing "guest author" at the top. For any reposts you'd have to enquire with the original author/outlet and then link back to them and not SkS.
Does that help?
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Eclectic at 14:34 PM on 5 August 2021How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
Steve37341 :
Your question re 300ppm/27C versus 400ppm/25C cannot (IMO) have a short answer.
In rough figures : the oceans (which have average depth of 4000m) have a bottom temperature of 4C and a near-surface temperature of 15C. And the 15C is only an average ~ higher in the tropics, lower near the poles. Different temperatures above and below the thermocline. Dozens of years to dozens of centuries, for surface warming/cooling to mix into deeper layers.
So the question becomes modified to: Which parts of the oceans warm up, and by how much, and over what time span? . . . a year, or a thousand years (or inbetween). And do subsequent changes in CO2 solubility cause an alteration of the 300ppm or 400ppm levels . . . or will other climate variables come into play?
300ppm CO2 and 400ppm CO2 are figures which are now entirely in the past ~ and so your question is extremely hypothetical; as are the ocean temperatures you mention.
Perhaps you could express the thoughts and ideas that led you to compose your original question. That may lead to a better way forward in thinking about these sorts of climate aspects.
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citizenschallenge at 10:06 AM on 5 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
Dear mods, I recall SkS having a CreativeCommons copyright, but now I noticed a regular ©JC in it's place. What's the policy these days regarding reprinting from your blogposts at my own blog? {With acknowledging original authors, etc.}
Thank you, Cc
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citizenschallenge at 09:09 AM on 5 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
There's a good quote in that article,
Even those of us with excellent critical thinking skills and lots of experience trying to dig up the truth behind a variety of claims are lacking one important asset: the scientific expertise necessary to understand any finds or claims in the context of the full state of knowledge of your field.
It’s part of why scientific consensus is so remarkably valuable: it only exists when the overwhelming majority of qualified professionals all hold the same consistent professional opinion. It truly is one of the most important and valuable types of expertise that humanity has ever developed. (Ethan Siegel)
It comes down to motivations and what is one after, learning or winning an argument. Just like the two forms of debate, a scientific debate where learning is the goal, and honesty is a requirement. Compared to the lawyerly political debate where winning is everything and the truth is treated with contempt and derision.
As a lay-person I've come to appreciate that when I do "my own research" I'm actually doing "homework" collecting as much information as I can to understand a topic.
A serious student questions their own assumptions and wants to understand opposing views because only through dissecting and resolving objections can we truly come to understand our own position.
As for expertise - for the constructive layperson, all it takes is reading scientific papers, to get an inclining of the amazing details scientists are familiar with, which I can barely, or not at all, grasp. It's a good humbling experience.
Finally, possessing a healthy dose of self-skepticism is a prerequisite for constructive learning.
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steve37341 at 07:53 AM on 5 August 2021How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean
I have a query. In which case would the oceans likely warm more (most). If you have an atmosphere that has 300ppm CO2 and is 27°C. Or a situation where the atmosphere has 400ppm CO2 but 25°C? Or is it impossible to tell without knowing other variables?
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Mal Adapted at 04:21 AM on 5 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
I love the author's first link under "To learn more":
You Must Not ‘Do Your Own Research’ When It Comes To Science
Forbes ("The Capitalist's Tool") isn't the first place you'd expect to see that advice, but it's spot-on nevertheless. It's by physicist Ethan Siegel, who had a blog named "Starts with a Bang" a while back, and is a regular contributor on Forbes.com.
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Engineer-Poet at 04:05 AM on 5 August 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
[BL] Enough is enough. You continue to violate the Comments Policy.
I've read the comments policy. What I don't get is what you mean by it, and you keep refusing to explain. I don't read minds.I think I'll just stop wasting my time and effort here.Moderator Response:[BL] Moderation complaints deleted.
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Mal Adapted at 03:37 AM on 5 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
Ulifwischnath:
I cannot accept that all who aren't scientists shall just trust the experts and done. Trust is something that needs to be earned. In this case the science has in my eyes the obligation to explain the findings in a way that as well the non-experts can get an idea of their own what is right and wrong.
In science, experts are people trained in the specialized technques, and familiar with all the data, pertaining to their sub-disciplines. The training is done by older experts, who went through the same process in their time. Scientific specialists must only make themselves understood to their specialist peers, who review each other's work, and decide collectively who is or is not an expert. Some scientists communicate their work well to the public, in addition to their peers. Public education isn't a requirement for a successful scientific career, however. IMHO, it behooves a concerned non-expert to at least learn who the genuine experts are, i.e. in the judgment of their specialist peers. John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist, calls for the public schools to teach not so much scientific literacy as scientific meta-literacy:
There are, perhaps, less than a thousand people worldwide who know enough about climate change’s impacts on tropical cyclones, extratropical transitions, wind speeds, rainfall rates, and sea level rise to qualify them to evaluate [a statement about superstorm Sandy]. It’s not even clear that I’m one of them! The requisite level of climate literacy is enormous.
But there’s an important lesson here about how we decide which scientific statements to believe and which ones not to believe. Those of us who are trained scientists but who do not have enough personal literacy to independently evaluate a particular statement do not throw up our hands in despair. Instead, we evaluate the source and the context.
We scientists rely upon a hierarchy of reliability. We know that a talking head is less reliable than a press release. We know that a press release is less reliable than a paper. We know that an ordinary peer-reviewed paper is less reliable than a review article. And so on, all the way up to a National Academy report. If we’re equipped with knowledge of this hierarchy of reliability, we can generally do a good job navigating through an unfamiliar field, even if we have very little prior technical knowledge in that field.
My point is, if you demand that climate scientists explain their findings so non-experts can understand, you misapprehend scientific culture. Those scientists don't work for you! If you're not willing to make the effort to meet them halfway, you can expect to be disappointed.
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michael sweet at 02:38 AM on 5 August 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Engineer Poet:
You are having trouble with the moderators. SkS wants to encourage people to discuss nuclear power. I have some suggestions for you to improve your relationship with the mods.
1) At 255 the moderator does not want exchanges of opinion. At Skeptical Science you have to provide references to support your position. You need references for every assertion you make.
2) At 261 there are several issues. The moderators do not want repetition. You have only linked two papers and you linked one of them twice. The conversation on LRNT is now completely repetitious. Once you and I have had our says move on to another topic.
3) Sloganeering is making assertions without supporting documents. You need to provide links to information supporting all your claims. You have made many claims with only two references, both about LRNT.
4) Your posting style is very hostile. Try not to be argumentative. Hostile posts invite hostile replies and make the conversation degrade. The forced variations thread at Real Climate has more posts insulting other posters than posts with real contributions. That is not allowed at SkS.
Your posts are long. That makes it more likely that you will say something that the mods don't like. Try to make your posts only two or three paragraphs long.
Keep each post to a single topic, like LRNT or power plant locations. Only discuss one or two topics at a time. After that topic is exhausted move on to the next topic. When too many topics are discussed at once none get resolved. My last post discusses 5 topics in reply to you. It is hard to read and no topic is covered in detail.
Upthread poster Ritchieb1234 and I had a long, thoughtful conversation. That shows it is possible to discuss nuclear power. He did not cite as many links as SkS likes, but his extraordinary experience made up for that. He posted on one topic at a time. Normal people like you and I have to cite sources.
Moderator Response:[BL] All of this is pretty clearly stated in the Comments Policy.
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ulifwischnath at 21:30 PM on 4 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
Dear Melanie,
I fully understand where you are coming from and have had a number of lengthy dsicussions with people whose 'research' mainly consisted of cherry picking.
Nevertheless I cannot accept that all who aren't scientists shall just trust the experts and done. Trust is something that needs to be earned. In this case the science has in my eyes the obligation to explain the findings in a way that as well the non-experts can get an idea of their own what is right and wrong.
Additionally we have got the problem that taking decisions is often interfering with a number of scientific fields and often the experts representing different fields come to different conclusions on such complex matters as how best to fight a Corona pandemic or climate change. Which scientist should a decision maker (and be it a voter) listen to? In my eyes there is definitely a necessity for the ability to form an opinion on your own based on information that you look at.
Best regards Uli
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AussiejB at 14:22 PM on 4 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
I have heard the exact term "Do your own research", from a person who then went on to explain why the science is all wrong.
Needless to say the person was repeating absolute rot about how CO2 is not a greenhouse gas but grows plants etc.
Very hard to put up with needless to say I have never crossed the threshold of the business again.
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michael sweet at 12:26 PM on 4 August 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Engineer Poet:
You continue to waste our time discussing LRNT. I have pointed out to you that I have orders of magnitude more professional experience, professional training and radiation knowledge than you do.
As far as your assertion at 272:
"If it had been Sr-90 you would have had some serious beta burns and some gamma exposure from the decay of excited isomers to their ground states. Further, I'm certain that holding such things in your hands is a violation of safety protocols."
This demonstrates your complete ignorance of radiation. Sr-90 is a low energy beta emitter, not a high energy emitter as I described. I was using the daughter product of Sr-90, Yittrium-90, which is a higher energy emitter. You do not even know about the Cerenkov gamma radiation field which is a big issue with high energy beta emitters.
Strontium-90 has a halflife of 29 years and emits beta particles of
relatively low energy as it decays. Yttrium-90, its decay product, has a shorter half-life (64 hours) than strontium-90, but it emits beta particles of higher energy. source my emphasisSince I am trained in the use of high energy radiation I was able to safely remove a sample from an unshielded vial containing a curie of Y-90. I got no burns, the exposure on my finger ring was minimal and it is not a violation of safety rules. Internet educated wanna-bees like you don't know what they are talking about.
The rest of your rants just serve to demonstrate that you do not care if nuclear power plants are unsafe. You cut off my point of sea level rise overwhelming the Big Bend power plant site. What about the effect of sea level rise on Big Bend and Turkey Point in Miami? 80% of current nuclear plants in the USA are threatened by floods they were not designed for. You do not care how many people you kill building dangerous power plants.
A consensus does is not the same as a unanamous consensus. We all know there are scientists like Linzden and Spencer who do not agree with the climate change consensus. Similarly, there are wackos like Calabrese who do not agree with the consensus of LRNT. Scientists have had a consensus on using LRNT for over 70 years. The nuclear industry has argued for that to be changed but the data overwhelmingly indicates that radiation causes harm at low doses.
I note that you have only one citation in your entire rant. That is to a paper published in 1958. Perhaps scientists have learned something in the last 60 years. You have produced nothing to answer the 15 points that Abbott made.
France loses money on every watt they generate using nuclear power. They have not paid off the original morgages and have not set aside funds to shut down their reactors. The government subsidizes the power prices to make people think nuclear was a good investment.
It is a waste of my time to respond to the rest of your Gish Gallop. There are to many ignorant mistakes and deliberate falsehoods to respond in a reasonable amount of column length.
Moderator Response:[BL] Please hold off on any further responses to Engineer-Poet, until moderators have had the chance to assess them (and delete them as needed)
[DB] Engineer-Poet has recused themselves from further participation here.
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Engineer-Poet at 11:23 AM on 4 August 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
I have held a curie of high energy beta radiation in my unshielded hand (for those with no radiation training like you that is an very, very large amount of radiation). I do not appreciate condesending remarks from internet educated wanna-bees like you. I am familiar with all the reactors you mentioned.
Depends what it was, doesn't it? A curie of tritium is about 100 micrograms, and a bit of polyethylene is enough to shield its emissions.
If it had been Sr-90 you would have had some serious beta burns and some gamma exposure from the decay of excited isomers to their ground states. Further, I'm certain that holding such things in your hands is a violation of safety protocols.Even in industry sponsored training it was obvious that the nuclear industry does not care how many people they kill and cherry picks their references.
Which is why they have such painstaking dosimetry and exposure reporting requirements. Which is why nuclear plants are rated by the amount of radiation exposure their workers receive, and ones at the bottom of the scale are subject to increased NRC oversight.
I've been hanging around, reading the stories told by actual nuclear professionals, for decades now. The tales of the work they have to do for "minimization" are head-shakingly incredible, but they all have them. You're the one whose claims are not credible, and your talk of "does not care about how many people they kill" is simply libelous.Moderator Response:[BL} Yet more violations of the comments policy.
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Engineer-Poet at 11:18 AM on 4 August 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
You are wasting your time talking about radiation safety.
Oh, I don't know. Putting your intransigence out there for all to see has value.
My experience is that people who do not like nuclear recognize that the scientific consensus is LRNT.
How much of said "consensus" is from people in the "radiation protection" business—in other words, people with an interest in maintaining and ever-tightening the rules so they can make money from "minimization"? Meanwhile, health physics deals with the REAL world, and workers at university research reactors routinely take many times the dose allowed at commercial nuclear plants, yet suffer no ill effects. Why is this allowed? It's because research reactors are not competing with the fossil fuel industry; nuclear electric plants do. Evidence-based radiation standards would seriously reduce the operating and maintenance cost of nuclear electric plants, and applying the same radiation standards to fossil fuels would require things like the handling of radium-rich petroleum well pipe scale as radwaste with all the same protection standards as at nuclear plants. Such cost shifts might even get people to build more nuclear and use less fossil.
There is a LOT of uranium in the ground, and the decay chain of U-238 produces Ra-226 and Rn-222. A lot of this uranium chemically deposits in the same strata which host coal, oil and gas, which is why natural gas from the Marcellus shale is so high in radon. Gas stoves dump the radon straight into the air people breathe. I don't see any major "environmental" organizations demanding protection from that,do you?
People who are avid supporters of nuclear, like you, do not care how many people nuclear power kills
That's libelous. I used to spend 2 weeks a year mere miles from a Generation I nuclear power plant, and the rest of the year not too far from a university research reactor. Neither ever killed ANYONE. Both are gone now, with only the casks storing the used fuel showing the former was ever there (I don't know about the latter). I now live year-round mere miles from this "danger". Do I sound like I don't care about lives? It's MY life on the line here. I walk the walk.
Know what I'd love? I'd love a new nuclear plant on the site of the old one, causing people with radiophobia to stay away and not buy homes here. It would reduce my property value and thus my property taxes. Pay less money for the same or better quality of life (less crowding and cleaner air)? Sign me up!
and cherry pick their references to the few scientists who disagree with the consensus.
Science is not determined by consensus. It's determined by evidence, and anyone who will not look at the evidence has no business calling themselves a scientist. The evidence is on the side of Calibrese. Those opposed are not scientists, whatever degrees they hold or what they call themselves.
We are all familiar with the scientific deniers of climate change. Citing the few outliers of the LRNT consensus does not prove your point. The National Academy of Science strongly backs LRNT.
The acronym is "LNT", and the NAS shows every sign of having been captured by special interests. Fossil-fuel interests are notoriously wealthy.
As you pointed out, dissenters of the consensus were allowed on the committee.
But not allowed a voice. Calabrese has published many papers on radiation hormesis and the errors in LNT. None of those objections made it into the BEIR VII section on radiation hormesis, and yes I read it from end to end. What does this mean? (lemme try list tags here)
- The BEIR VII report reflects a majority view, not a consensus view and certainly not a view of the actual range of opinion in the field.
- The majority view is subject to capture by various interests, especially wealthy ones.
- Those interests are overwhelmingly benefitted by fossil fuels.
You need to acknowledge this. (love it, list tags rock)
Reviewing this thread I notice that opponents of nuclear power have never raised the issue of low level exposure to radiation as a reason not to build out nuclear.
That's implicit in the use of LNT to oppose nuclear energy.
It is raised by nuclear supporters.
Because we see no detectable increase in morbidity or mortality due to small increases in radiation; on the contrary, the evidence supports hormesis (when you can extend the median lifespan of rats from 460 to 600 days by irradiating them with gamma rays, it very likely has the same effect in all mammals including humans). We do see increases in morbidity and mortality with increases of criteria air pollutants and things like PM 2.5, neither of which are produced by nuclear energy. So why are you raising these issues? It's enough to make anyone think you're doing it in bad faith.
1) Nuclear plants are not economic. They cost too much to build.
France proved otherwise; France has some of the cheapest and cleanest electric power in Europe, while "renewable" Germany has some of the most expensive and continues to burn lignite. The way you make nuclear power cheaply is the same way you make automobiles cheaply: series production of stanard units. That's what France did in the 80's. That is not what France is doing now, which is why Flamanville costs so much.
2) Nuclear plants take too long to build.
They didn't used to. Ever ponder what's different now?
The breeder reactors you support have not yet been designed. Once they have a design (at least 5 years from now), the approval of the design takes 3-5 years.
So you admit that the regulators are a big part of the problem.
3) There are not enough rare materials to build a significant number of nuclear plants.
Nonsense. Nuclear plants do not require rare materials; they've just been convenient for the way we've been doing things since the 1950's. We don't have to keep doing things that way, and there are a great many reasons not to. Many of the new reactor concepts use other physical mechanisms than e.g. control rods to control the rate of reaction, so they have no need for the elements which go into them.
You admit in your post 260 that there is not enough uranium for your plan.
No, I said there's not enough land-based uranium to start the required fleet of fast-neutron reactors. There's more than enough in the oceans, and the depleted uranium already on hand in the USA would suffice to run the entire world for about a century on fast reactors. Also, there's more than enough thorium available to do the job (3-4x as abundant as uranium and it's almost 100% convertible to energy with thermal neutrons).
4) Your responses to Abbott are grossly inadequate and uninformed. For examply you claim "pretty much ANY site that has ever hosted a coal plant is suitable for a nuclear plant." Only 10 miles from my house is the Big Bend power plant (it is switching from coal to gas). This plant is too close to a city to be converted to nuclear
It's "too close" for nuclear, but far more dangerous and polluting coal (with far more radioisotope emissions from the tramp actinides) was just fine? Ye gods, if it wasn't for double standards, anti-nukes wouldn't have any standards.
(Mods: there's a bug in the way the post editor JS handles closing bold and italic tags when switching from "Source" back to "Basic" after pasting in HTML; a trailing space is deleted even when it's explicitly in the source.)
Moderator Response:[BL] Enough is enough. You continue to violate the Comments Policy. From this point, on, any comment from you that contains a violation will be deleted in its entirety.
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nigelj at 08:12 AM on 4 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
By my observation most people appear hopeless when it comes to investigating the credibility of various claims. They get fooled by obvious junk science, cherrypicking of information, misleading claims, the simplest of logical fallacies, self appointed experts without relevant qualifications, emotional manipulation, and anyone in a suit that tells them what they want to hear.
People have little understanding of their own inherent biases and even less ability to control them. They will hold onto ideas that conform with their instincts or preferences despite multiple lines of carefully gathered evidence they are wrong, partly because they are too proud to accept they were mistaken or fooled.
Why do people do all this? Partly because schools and universities do almost nothing (in my experience) to teach them about these things!
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:45 AM on 4 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
Adding to my previous comment:
"Everyone's perceptions are the basis for their understanding of reality" combined with "All opinions are equally valid" challenges efforts to develop a common sense understanding.
A sustainable common sense requires everyone developing it to pursue increased awareness and improved understanding of what is harmful and unsustainable and the need to limit harmful actions.
And in cases like human induced climate change impacts the need is to actually rapidly end the harm being done, not somehow justify extra harm done because it is perceived to be harmful to stop the harm from being done.
The over-development of harmful consumptive ways of living does not mean that developed perceptions of status need to be maintained. Playing that game rewards undeserving winners, encouraging others to try to win more that way. And the wealthy and powerful are well aware of that reality.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:14 AM on 4 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
The root of the issue is very complex. But a few things stand out:
- There is a tragic popularity of the belief that all opinions are equally valid. The truth is that having learned something and basing an Opinion on that learning, including constantly updated understanding as more evidence is obtained or better explanations of what is going on develop, is different from developing a personally liked Opinion, especially if that Opinion is maintained as a Gospel-type Constant in spite of updated learning requiring it to change.
- Harmful selfishness is excused, encouraged and rewarded in many cultures. The more competition there is for perceptions of superiority relative to others the more harmful the culture becomes, including increased resistance to efforts to educate the population to reduce how harmful its collective actions are (how harmful the actions of its leaders and winners are).
- Many supposedly highly advanced cultures (and supposedly more intelligent people) can be seen to have developed massive Harmful Selfishness problems. And many developing people (supposedly less advanced) tragically take their development cues from the examples set by the supposedly superior people. And those who don't play the game the way the harmfully wealthy and powerful want the game played can get penalized in many ways ... particularly with the abuse of misleading marketing along with the other undeserved mechanism available to the harmfully unjustifiably wealthy and powerful.
- Harmful unsustainable pursuits of perceptions of success and status relative to others has developed almost all of the harmful results of human actions to date.
The Guardian article "Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction" discusses a recent re-evaluation of a 1972 MIT sustainability study that suggested there was no long ter future for the developing dominant socioeconomic games humans played.
In addition to the rapid ending of additional climate change harm due to fossil fuel use, deforestation, and other activities, all of the Sustainable Development Goals, and more, needs to be achieved.
The lack of attention by leadership to Sustainability, even though it was undeniably recognised by global leadership in the 1970s (at the Stockholm Conference and everything that followed), has produced the current day result of "a lack of time to pick and choose and slowly act to correct what has developed".
Big changes are needed rapidly regarding how receptive populations are to actually becoming more aware with improved understanding about what is harmful. That will include severely limiting the ability of competitors for leadership to be able to win through misleading marketing efforts. And that requires ending the false belief in the "equivalency of all Opinions", that irrational misunderstanding of Relativism (everyone's perceptions are their reality).
The efforts to make the required major corrections is not going to be easy, especially in the supposedly superior cultures and nations. But it is undeniably dangerous to compromise better understanding just to get along with people who do not like the idea of better understanding.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:11 AM on 4 August 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31
Eclectic, It would indeed be amusing to hear the WUWT crowd, especially Dr. Spencer and "The Error-Prone Viscount", attempt to present a rational solid argument justifying not presenting the real satellite data TLT temperature values.
The -26C baseline value for the average TLT makes sense. But the large negative value would trigger questions that could scramble the cognitive dissonance into a flurry of fuzzy attempts to dismiss the clear evidence that satellite data averages are not to be considered to be a rational replacement for the surface temperature averages.
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:50 AM on 4 August 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31
MA Rogers,
Thanks for the info about the WMO.
As a structural engineer I am infinitely familiar with the 10 year update of climate design data based on the most recent complete 30 years ending in a Zero.
And maintaining a consistent basis for presentation of climate change information rather than updating all of it every 10 years is logical.
So it appears that the change Dr. Spence made is likely intentionally misleading - no real good reason likely able to be provided.
btw, NOAA do not appear to have implemented 1991 to 2020 as their updated baseline. The NOAA page I go to for temperature data still says "Please note, global and hemispheric anomalies are with respect to the 20th century average. Coordinate anomalies are with respect to the 1981 to 2010 average. All other regional anomalies are with respect to the 1910 to 2000 average."
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citizenschallenge at 02:13 AM on 4 August 2021Thinking is Power: The problem with “doing your own research”
Ultimately knowledge is a community effort. We don’t think alone…. and that’s what makes humans a successful species.
Wonderful summary. Or to put it another way, science is founded on an unspoken principle that: "We Need Each Other, To Keep Ourselves Honest."
In serious science doing your own research (lay or professional) also includes trying to 'prove' one's own ideas wrong. How else can one learn to appreciate the strength's and weakenesses in one's personal assessments?
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MA Rodger at 00:41 AM on 4 August 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31
One Planet Only Forever @1,
You ask about the change in anomaly base to 1991-2020 "Why was it done?"
The deniers at UAH are not alone in making this change. Both Copernicus and NOAA have made this same change although GISTEMP LOTI continue with 1951-80 as an anomaly base. The change comforms with the WMO who ruled in 2017 (see page 2 here) that "the definition of a climatological standard normal ... now refers to the most-recent 30-year period finishing in a year ending with 0 (1981–2010 at the time of writing)." Mind, they do add, "However, the period from 1961 to 1990 has been retained as a standard reference period for long-term climate change assessments." So the correct choice isn't actually written in stone.
The choice of anomaly base does make a difference when, say, looking at monthly anomalies through a year when there is a change in the annual cycle. Thus in UAH, throwing an OLS through each individual month shows a warming of +0.115ºC/decade for June but +0.163ºC/decade for September.
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Eclectic at 16:55 PM on 3 August 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31
One Planet,
it really doesn't matter much, which baseline Spencer uses - since his main monthly publication site seems to be on the WattsUpWithThat* blog.
*Where "The Error-Prone Viscount" ( as science journalist Potholer54 terms Lord Monckton) has already posted another global temperature has paused for 6 years now . . . as per usual.
It is a pity - and absolutely quite inexplicable - that WUWT doesn't ever publish the Spencer UAH TLT graph overlaid with the RSS graph of TLT temperatures.
The WUWTers are frequently complaining how climate scientists mislead the ordinary public by giving temperatures as temperature anomaly figures instead of expressing a real Celsius temperature. Perhaps we can persuade Dr Spencer to chart his UAH TLT temperature figures in simple Celsius figures - where the TLT baseline is about Minus 26C . (If I have correctly understood commentary at RealClimate blog.)
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One Planet Only Forever at 15:03 PM on 3 August 20212021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #31
Checked Dr. Roy Spencer's update for the July UAH global average.
He has a new twist for presenting data to make it appear as though the current numbers as not unusually high. He has shifted all the data to be lower relative to the zero line. And he helpfully provides the following:
"REMINDER: We have changed the 30-year averaging period from which we compute anomalies to 1991-2020, from the old period 1981-2010. This change does not affect the temperature trends."
If the change does not affect the presentation of the temperature trends then - Why was it done? Probably to try to make things appear more like he wants them to appear.
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michael sweet at 02:06 AM on 2 August 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
John ONeill:
This paper claims that Jacobson underestimated the number of fatalities resulting from the Fukushima accident. It estimates approximately 1000 cancer deaths world wide instead of the approximately 150 estimated by Jacobson.
Obviously the zero fatalities claimed by Conca, without a paper to suport the claim, is a severe underestimate. Claims that nuclear power is "orders of magnitude safer than other energy systems" leave out the 27,000 killed at Chernobyl and the 1600 killed at Fukushima. (1000 killed by cancer and 600 killed in the evacuation. The Russians did not keep track of the people killed in the evacuation so Conca claims none killed. a transparently false claim)
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michael sweet at 01:42 AM on 2 August 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
John Oneill:
I found this free copy in less than 30 seconds. Search on Google Scholar. Papers displayed on the right are free. It shows how much you read the peer reviewed literature when you cannot find free papers.
Jacobson wrote that paper specifically to answer nuclear shills like James Conca and the Breakthrough institutes false claims that no-one was killed by radiation at Fukushima. Jacobson was replying to false claims, not bringing up the issue. Jacobson 2009 rates various methods of generating energy in the future. He does not rate nuclear based on accidents. Nuclear primarily fails because of its long lead times to build.
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John ONeill at 19:18 PM on 1 August 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Michael Sweet , Post 265
'Reviewing this thread I notice that opponents of nuclear power have never raised the issue of low level exposure to radiation as a reason not to build out nuclear. It is raised by nuclear supporters. I have never raised this point in debate about nuclear power. It is a waste of time. Neither Abbott or Jacobson mention this issue.'
In fact, Jacobson has co-authored at least one paper on risk of low radioactivity emissions from Fukushima - https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2012/ee/c2ee22019a
It's based on LNT, not clinical data, of course. They want 42 pounds to read it, or I'd do so.
Moderator Response:[BL] Link activated.
The web software here does not automatically create links. You can do this when posting a comment by selecting the "insert" tab, selecting the text you want to use for the link, and clicking on the icon that looks like a chain link. Add the URL in the dialog box.[DB] Full copies are available for that paper, for example here.
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michael sweet at 11:50 AM on 1 August 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Engineer Poet:
I am sorry, I put the incorrect handle for you in my last post. It was an accident.
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Doug Bostrom at 03:47 AM on 1 August 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30, 2021
Thanks Dawei— all sorted now.
Indeed we made some changes to bring NR's guts into better alignment with some other work we're doing, namely adding references for rebuttal supporting articles to our glossary system. Unfortunately when I noticed we had some "issues" with this edition of NR Unpaywall was having some problems of its own. Then I clean forgot to circle back. :-P
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michael sweet at 23:29 PM on 31 July 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Nuclear Poet:
You have made several condesending comments to me about my radiological knowledge. For example stating about LRNT "You have been informed. You can no longer claim ignorance as an excuse." (now deleted by the moderator).
You obviously do not know that I have worked professionally for years with large amounts of radiation and have spent weeks in professional radiation safety training. I have forgotten more about LRNT and hormesis than you will ever know. I have held a curie of high energy beta radiation in my unshielded hand (for those with no radiation training like you that is an very, very large amount of radiation). I do not appreciate condesending remarks from internet educated wanna-bees like you. I am familiar with all the reactors you mentioned.
Even in industry sponsored training it was obvious that the nuclear industry does not care how many people they kill and cherry picks their references. I accepted the work based on my own assessment of the risks.
I do not normally rely on my personal experience to make an argument. Your repetitive condesending remarks provoked me to point out that you have little knowledge or training compared to me.
I note that you claim no educational or professional training in radiation.
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michael sweet at 23:23 PM on 31 July 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Engineer Poet:
You are wasting your time talking about radiation safety. My experience is that people who do not like nuclear recognize that the scientific consensus is LRNT. People who are avid supporters of nuclear, like you, do not care how many people nuclear power kills and cherry pick their references to the few scientists who disagree with the consensus. We are all familiar with the scientific deniers of climate change. Citing the few outliers of the LRNT consensus does not prove your point. The National Academy of Science strongly backs LRNT. As you pointed out, dissenters of the consensus were allowed on the committee.
Reviewing this thread I notice that opponents of nuclear power have never raised the issue of low level exposure to radiation as a reason not to build out nuclear. It is raised by nuclear supporters. I have never raised this point in debate about nuclear power. It is a waste of time. Neither Abbott or Jacobson mention this issue. I suggest you concentrate your efforts on the arguments that matter:
1) Nuclear plants are not economic. They cost too much to build. It currently costs more for operation and maintenance of a nuclear plant than to build a new renewable plant with a mortgage. Nuclear plants are shutting down because they cannot make money at the price of renewable energy.
2) Nuclear plants take too long to build. The breeder reactors you support have not yet been designed. Once they have a design (at least 5 years from now), the approval of the design takes 3-5 years. Than it is 10-15 years to build a test plant. The earliest that a pilot plant will be built is 20 years from now. Production of many plants can not start before 2050. The entire energy system will be renewable by then. A few nuclear plants cannot make money against renewable energy.
3) There are not enough rare materials to build a significant number of nuclear plants. You admit in your post 260 that there is not enough uranium for your plan. Nuclear plants use many other exotic materials that are already in short supply.
4) Your responses to Abbott are grossly inadequate and uninformed. For examply you claim "pretty much ANY site that has ever hosted a coal plant is suitable for a nuclear plant." Only 10 miles from my house is the Big Bend power plant (it is switching from coal to gas). This plant is too close to a city to be converted to nuclear and it is very seriously threatened by sea level rise. For both reasons it is unsuitable for nuclear power. This disproves your "ANY site" claim and I didn't even have to look past the nearest plant to my home. The Turkey Point Nuclear plant in Miami is almost isolated by sea level rise already. Its location is unsuitable for nuclear power.
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Eclectic at 19:03 PM on 31 July 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Engineer-Poet and Michael Sweet :
though non-expert in this area, I can point out some context for the Linear-No-Threshold (LNT) concept and radiation-hormesis concept (of benefit from low-dose radioactivity exposure). But I won't go into the fundamental evolutionary aspects, nor the False-Binary aspects of the discussion.
# Yet regardless of the existent/non-existent status of LNT & hormesis, the whole question is moot for fission power plants, because of the bogeyman status of radioactivity (wrt public opinion).
# It is notoriously difficult to achieve good-quality, un-assailable scientific studies in the biological field ~ owing to the large number of confounding factors. Animal studies are in short-lived non-primate species. Observational studies in humans, have selection bias as well as even greater confounding factors.
As general background, I note [without citation] that human & animal studies show health/longevity benefits of reduced-calorie (semi-starvation) diets . . . but in pragmatic terms, this will never be a politically-acceptable mode. Similarly, the surviving Prisoners-Of-War (from Japanese prison camps in Malaya) did very well in subsequent years ~ but it is arguable whether this resulted from "hormetic" semi-starvation effect or the survivor-selection effect. Again, moot in pragmatic terms.
# The metastudy [linked @263] by TD Luckey (2008) shows its own red flags. Luckey does not touch on the profound difficulties in the post-war studies (even up to the early 1980's) of atomic bomb survivors who showed increased lifespans. Control groups from outside the blast area, included exposure to "residual radiation" [fall-out] ~ as were the subjects, to an uncertain degree. Fetus abnormalities were assessed by "phenotypic abnormality" (i.e. by crude physical examination). And in these early times, there was of course no possibility of technical genomic assessment of survivor subjects and controls.
Ethically, no human experimentation is possible. We do have retrospective studies [cosmic radiation exposure] of airline flight crews ~ the results are not-at-all reassuring, but are as expected fraught with confounding factors.
One of the red flags is Luckey's comment: "The redistribution of radioactive waste is a solution for better health in the 21st century."
We have quite enough trouble with conspiracists such as the Antivaxxers and Chemtrails people. I won't even try to imagine the political response to "redistribution of radioactive waste".
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BaerbelW at 17:58 PM on 31 July 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30, 2021
Thanks Dawei for the heads-up! Doug is aware of the issue with the malformed PDF-links and the blog post will be updated in due course.
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Dawei at 14:50 PM on 31 July 2021Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30, 2021
Most of the links are broken. For example the first 7 of them. Glad to see using the DOI under the main link, I guess a bit of a bug related to that change?
They look cut off... for example for:
Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes
The DOI it shows is:
10.1038/s41558It should be:
10.1038/s41558-021-01092-9 -
Engineer-Poet at 11:23 AM on 31 July 2021Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
You post this in response to my citing the most recent National Academy of Science BEIR VII concensus science report on the topic of LRNT, published in 2006. This report was specifically written to determine the consensus of scientists on the effects of low level exposure to radiation and resolve the LRNT argument. They strongly endorsed LRNT.
Yes, about that. I found a great many references to it, including one taking the authors to task for failing to deal with issues straightforwardly(sadly, the full text is paywalled):
Risk of low-dose radiation and the BEIR VII report: A critical review of what it does and doesn't say Michael K O'Connor PMID: 28826776 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejmp.2017.07.016 Abstract This article briefly reviews the history behind the BEIR VII report and the use of the linear no-threshold hypothesis. The BEIR VII committee considered four primary sources of data on the stochastic effects of ionizing radiation. These were environmental studies, occupational studies, medical studies and studies on the atomic bomb survivors. These sources are briefly reviewed along with key studies that run counter to the LNT hypothesis. We review many of the assumptions, hypotheses and subjective decisions used to generate risk estimates in the BEIR VII report. Position statement by the Health Physics Society, American Association of Physicists in Medicine, and UNSCEAR support the conclusion that the risk estimates in the BEIR VII report should not be used for estimating cancer risks from low doses of ionizing radiation.
It wasn't until I was way down in the search results before I found the actual report itself rather than your link to a press release about it (which, strangely, did not link to the report either). Sadly, I can't find specific quotes with which to identify details about which there is more recent research. But here's something from the introduction:
(4) assess the current status and relevance to risk models of biologic data and models of carcinogenesis, including critical assessment of all data that might affect the shape of the response curve at low doses, in particular, evidence for or against thresholds in dose-response relationships and evidence for or against adaptive responses and radiation hormesis;
Except they didn't do that, or did it incompetently. Here's a meta-study from just 3 years later, compiling studies which contradict BEIR and LNT (full text at the link):
Media reports of deaths and devastation produced by atomic bombs convinced people around the world that all ionizing radiation is harmful. This concentrated attention on fear of miniscule doses of radiation. Soon the linear no threshold (LNT) paradigm was converted into laws. Scientifically valid information about the health benefits from low dose irradiation was ignored. Here are studies which show increased health in Japanese survivors of atomic bombs. Parameters include decreased mutation, leukemia and solid tissue cancer mortality rates, and increased average lifespan. Each study exhibits a threshold that repudiates the LNT dogma. The average threshold for acute exposures to atomic bombs is about 100 cSv. Conclusions from these studies of atomic bomb survivors are: One burst of low dose irradiation elicits a lifetime of improved health. Improved health from low dose irradiation negates the LNT paradigm. Effective triage should include radiation hormesis for survivor treatment.
Back to you now.
You are welcome to your opinion, but the consensus of scientific experts is LRNT.
I know it's NOT a consensus, because the BEIR VII committee included Dr. Edward J. Calabrese, who is a strong opponent of LNT and has published a number of papers showing that it is inaccurate and often flatly contradictory to the truth.
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