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Tom Dayton at 09:54 AM on 17 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
A review of Wolfram's earlier book contains some relevant quotes about cranks, starting at the paragraph "[Some cranks] are brilliant and well-educated," and continuing nearly to the end of the review.
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RedBaron at 08:07 AM on 17 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
Experiment dot com closes down indefinitly
As some of you know, today was the day my fundraiser at experiment dot com was going to launch. Go there and check it out please.
What is the rate a new regenerative agricultural method sequesters carbon in the soil?
All went well at first. After 2 months of hard work, endorsements and peer reviews by other scientists, I was finally ready, approved and just waiting their 7 day waiting period to launch. I had even started the project as best I could without funds just to be ready and already started my lab notes and updates.
Then sadly I got this email:
Experiment Support
To:scott strough
Mon, Apr 13 at 6:44 AM
Scott,
We are making changes at Experiment today that affect your project. Experiment is going to stop launching projects for an indefinite amount of time. Starting today we will not be accepting new proposals and will not be launching any projects.
I am sorry that we are not able to support your important work at this time. If you choose another platform I am happy to port your content over to the platform of your choice, so you don't have to spend the time to do that work all over on a new platform.
If there are other ways I can be supportive of you and your project, please let me know.
Cindy
So after 2 months of hard work setting this all up, they close down. They wouldn’t say directly why, but the timing is apparently somehow indirectly related to the covid 19 pandemic and/or the financial crisis resulting. I have been told I can still run the project from there, posting results, and if it ever opens up funding in the future, I maybe can try again in their new format. But I can not raise money there now. So if you think the project is worthy please go here instead:
Click here to support Sustainable Ag Research by Scott Strough
This was an earlier ongoing fundraiser I have been using to mitigate some of the costs for the original development of the methods I am developing. That place isn't a science based platform, but it will allow me to try and fund my project.
And if you can't donate, please share this page wherever you can, facebook, twitter, your colleagues, anywhere you can think. Sharing actually might be more beneficial than actually donating.
Thanks so much.
Scott
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nigelj at 07:11 AM on 17 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Darkmoon @12, just adding to my comment at 14.
"I think you should rather protect those at risk and allow the virus to infect the young, like the authorities in Sweden and and Japan do."
The difficulty is that with the virus rampant among younger people isolating the elderly has to be done to such a high level it becomes challenging. Sweden's very significant mortality rate is evidence of this.
The great difficulty is finding an appropriate lockdown that controls the virus that doesn't also wreck the economy. However human lives are at stake and covid 19 is a serious virus with no vaccine in the near term. Of course there are uncertainties with everything we do in response to covid 19, but like with climate change "the precautionary principle" should apply.
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nigelj at 07:01 AM on 17 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Forgot the John Hopkins link. Here it is.
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nigelj at 06:51 AM on 17 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Darkmoon @12,
"For example it is highly questionable that the lockdown is actually a proper measure. Take the latest case-study of the Robert-Koch-Institut in Germany: It basically says that the ban on large events and the closure of schools was very effective (also advice on hygiene and voluntary limitation of contacts), but the following lockdown achieved very little in reducing the R-factor."
New Zealand has had quite a severe lockdown going beyond just large events etc, and for three weeks so far. Numbers of new infections have dropped dramatically since the lockdown, and nothing else really explains that trend by my observations. So the lock down seems to have worked in terms of reducing infections and deaths. I'm not aware of any study on it.
However we implemented a lock down early in the growth curve when it has the best chance of working unlike many other countries. It looks like if you leave it too late you need very long and severe lockdowns that might not achieve as much because community spread has already happened widely, like in Italy perhaps.
NZ is likely to lift its severe lockdown of one month shortly to a milder version.
"I think you should rather protect those at risk and allow the virus to infect the young, like the authorities in Sweden and and Japan do."
Perhaps we could all agree protect those at risk. Until there is a vaccine there seems little else that can be done or which makes sense.
Sweden has much less severe lock downs than elsewhere. However Sweden also has quite a high mortality rate of 10% (refer the John Hopkins data here).
However lockdowns have huge economic and social costs and health costs that have to be weighed against the virus. Quite a juggling act.
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MA Rodger at 02:31 AM on 17 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
The Robert-Kock-Institut case study mentioned by darkmoon @12 is here (in German). I don't think the RKI draws the conclusion described by darkmoon @12. The finding is also a little less than straightforward requiring an assumed 'generation time' between infections. And the age profile of patients and differing levels of testing are also seen as a modelling difficulty.
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darkmoon at 20:41 PM on 16 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
I find this argumentation too reductionist. One can acknowledge the new COV, but see the reaction of the govs critical.
For example it is highly questionable that the lockdown is actually a proper measure. Take the latest case-study of the Robert-Koch-Institut in Germany: It basically says that the ban on large events and the closure of schools was very effective (also advice on hygiene and voluntary limitation of contacts), but the following lockdown achieved very little in reducing the R-factor.
I also see the actionism of the very rich with doubt. Many interest groups will use this crisis to further their gains (hedgefonds, techcorps).
I think you should rather protect those at risk and allow the virus to infect the young, like the authorities in Sweden and and Japan do.
In any case my point is that there is legitimate critique concerning the measures, which the MSM in - for example - germany brushes away as conspiracy theories.
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One Planet Only Forever at 14:46 PM on 16 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
The following is likely a precursor to the "stages of denial":
The development of a liking for something that would have to be given up, be corrected, if the person pursued and accepted expanded awareness and improved understanding of the reality and unacceptability of what they developed a liking for.
Some people develop powerful motivations to resist learning, to resist expanded awareness and improved understanding of how to be helpful rather than harmful. That can lead them to like denial of many things, and to like people who help them defend their desire to deny the reality of constantly improved awareness and understanding.
I see it frequently as I try to correct incorrect claims that are forms of denial and are impediments to achieving any of the many corrections of harmful ultimately unsustainable impediments to achieving important objectives like the entire suite of the Sustainable Development Goals.
One of the most twisted claims is that fossil fuels have to be profited from in order to help the poorest, or that the use of fossil fuels was the reason poverty was reduced. The related COVID-19 claim would be that the best way to help the most vulnerable is to keep the economy going full speed, because richer people help more with the development of vaccines and treatment.
The reality is that the harm of keeping the economy going in harmful ways mainly benefits people who do not really need help and do not like the idea of losing some of their perception of status by being taxed to help less fortunate people. And the assistance that gets provided is limited compared to what is actually possible because being more helpful and less harmful is not as profitable or popular.
A unique aspect of the fossil fuel poverty claim is that any benefits thought to have been achieved because of fossil fuel use will not survive into the future because of the reality that fossil fuel use is a harmful dead-end, burning non-renewable resources cannot be continued very far into the future.
At least a vaccine for COVID-19 that some rich people, like Bill and Melinda Gates, help develop will be a lasting benefit. And it can be developed without people dying because health care systems are over-whelmed by a too-rapid rate of spread of COVID-19 through the population.
Economic perceptions of loss are a common and powerful motivation for harmful denial, resistance to learning to be more helpful and less harmful.
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Doug Bostrom at 05:10 AM on 16 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Varki's hypothesis is fascinating. I've wondered myself whether we've been selected to conserve/express genes leading to magical thinking, as a compensatory mechanism for the "curse of imagination."
Knowing one's fate even before reaching reproductive age does seem a bit of a discouragement.
Even so, our imaginations are a powerful tool for producing more of our species.
How to make it work?
Wiring to believe in happy bullshit seems quite plausible.
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dana1981 at 03:34 AM on 16 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
nigelj @ 4 - yes that's basically "it's not that bad" Stage 3 denial.
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dana1981 at 03:33 AM on 16 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Bob @ 2 - those false solutions are included in Stage 4 in the article!
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Bob Loblaw at 22:36 PM on 15 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
...and now we have seen a rapid switch from "you are being an alarmist, there is no problem" to "you didn't warn us early enough"...
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John Mason at 19:12 PM on 15 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
I've just started referring to all of this stuff simply as "science-denial", since that's what it is, regardless of the topic!
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DavidOwen100 at 16:33 PM on 15 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Don't mention evolution to libertarians, Nigel; they'll deny that too.
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nigelj at 07:26 AM on 15 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
And another parallel: Climate change sceptic: adaptation is the answer. Covid 19 sceptic, its just another seasonal flu to live with, herd immunity etc.
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nigelj at 07:22 AM on 15 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Some of the same people sceptical of the virus and climate change appear to be libertarians suspicious of the government. This libertarianism might be an evolutionary mechanism that protects us againt being captured and ordered around, but it conflicits with the fact that government brings considerable benefits.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:26 AM on 15 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
Another parallel: magical thinking about technological solutions:
- Climate: "clean coal" and carbon capture, or similar "future technology" to justify more subsidies to fossil fuel interests.
- Covid-19: Hydroxychloroquine.
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Philippe Chantreau at 03:44 AM on 15 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
By all means do not get discouraged, it looks interesting and promising.
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Esop at 02:11 AM on 15 April 2020Coronavirus doubters follow climate denial playbook
So very, very true!
It struck me immediately, as I noticed that it was the same old suspects, both local and world wide, that were ''skeptical'' of the virus.
Same tactics, same desperate search for any ''expert'' that shared their opinion. Same exact type of denial, only forwarded at 1000X the speed. On the bright side, these science deniers have lost even more credibiliy now.
Not that they had much to begin with.
However, laypeople can now hopefully see that with ''virus denial'' failing miserably and dangerously in the face of reality, they might think twice about listening to those same ''skeptics'' with regards to climate change. -
nigelj at 18:12 PM on 14 April 2020With climate and coronavirus, 'the broad shape of the story is the same'
There is possibly another parallel between climate change and covid 19, and it's related to scepticism verging on denialism. Firstly we know there are several consensus studies showing most climate scientists agree we are changing the climate, and a very small number of scientists disagree. It appears covid 19 might be similar in New Zealand with most health experts agreeing covid 19 is a big problem, and small goup of strongly dissenting voices in NZ trying to essentially minimise the covid 19 problem, and attack the lockdown response. While I havent seen a poll or anything, this picture is emerging strongly in our media.
The media article about the denialist group has mysteriously disappeared, but the following article refers directly to this dissenting group and is critical of it.
One sees some interesting features with this covid 19 scepticism that parallels the climate issue. First the covid sceptics take quite an extreme position, much like the climate denialists, so no middle ground with these guys. Secondly their group includes a motley mixture of health experts, economists, legal people and statisticians, so while not exactly fake experts the group is light on actuall health expertise. Thirdly Thornley claimed that only 10% of fatalities were caused by covid 19 while, the rest were caused by underlying conditions. This is moronic and misleading and a sort of red herring argument.
Thornley implies covid 19 is no more lethal than influenza, which is not what the weight of evidence says (granted nobody is 100 % certain). The group say that the data show covid is not a huge problem seemingly oblivious that the reason our numbers of infections have fallen is because of the lockdown that they generally criticise. This is so stupid it beggars belief.
The group as a whole claim covid 19 is no worse than influenza for most people, while neglecting to mention it is a great deal worse for about 20% of people and causes more severe complications than seasonal influenza (this appears beyond debate now). The group also promote the Swedish model, without mentioning that they have quite a high mortality rate. The group cherrypick various other examples.
These assorted tactics are all remarkably similar to climate denialism.
(That said, while I think lockdowns make sense, we have to also consider the very significant economic and social distress this causes and tread carefully and minimise their length.)
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michael sweet at 07:25 AM on 14 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
Red Baron,
I am sorry that your project has been delayed for the time being. It is always disappointing when you hit a bump in the road. Unfortunately, this is a typical problem for any scientific venture. Try to find others who might help you out. Press on with what you have and you may find that another door opens.
Good luck.
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RedBaron at 00:24 AM on 14 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
Update:
Unfortunately I got this message today in my email from Experiment dot Com
Scott,
We are making changes at Experiment today that affect your project. Experiment is going to stop launching projects for an indefinite amount of time. Starting today we will not be accepting new proposals and will not be launching any projects.
I am sorry that we are not able to support your important work at this time. If you choose another platform I am happy to port your content over to the platform of your choice, so you don't have to spend the time to do that work all over on a new platform.
If there are other ways I can be supportive of you and your project, please let me know.
Cindy
So sadly it looks like I won't be able to do it after all. 2 months of hard work down the tubes just 3 days before launch. :(
I will try to find another platform though.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:31 PM on 13 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
Although duncan61's time here appears to be over, a few hints to anyone else that wishes to follow a similar path of reasoning:
- Scientific disussions don't have "two sides", so you need to look at a lot more than "both of them". Scientific discussions of complex issues (which is pretty much all of them) have a wide range of opinions, hyptheses, theories, and evidence to support them. Some are extremly strongly supported - as a former colleague used to say whenever she dropped something: "gravity still works".
- Scientific discussions are not simply a repeated statement of an opnion ("some people say X, some people say Y") - scientific discussions involve presenting and discussing evidence, its strengths and weaknesses, alternate explanations (and how they differ, and what evidence would show that difference and elminate more or more competing explanations).
- Scientific discussions provde more details than vague statements such as "some data" or "some people". Be specific, provide sources, and provide details on why a particular source seems convincing or not.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:19 PM on 13 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
prove @37:
My point, in comment 33, is more along the lines of "you should always have been carefull accepting what you get out of Google, or Youtube, or any other source on the Internet".
Recent changes do not affect this.
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prove we are smart at 22:29 PM on 13 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
Thanks M A Rodger, I feel a little better.. I wonder how well known this is? Capitalism rules..
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Eclectic at 11:15 AM on 13 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
KR , the WaPo link is to paywall. Likewise with NYT.
Free access to a biography / hagiography via WUWT or maybe ClimateDepot.
Unfortunately, the Scythe of Time cuts down both the good and the bad.
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Philippe Chantreau at 08:18 AM on 13 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
Nigelj, I believe that what little data is there actually supports using it early in the disease process. Waiting to use it as a rescue measure would then not be wise, especially because of the added risk of throwing cardiac side effects on top of a possible viral myocarditis. All hypothetical, of course. This is kinda uncharted territory really.
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2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
Note to those involved in climate discussions: Dr. Fred Singer passed away April 6th at the age of 95.
Singer spent much of his life engaged in climate science denial, tirelessly denigrating good science in favor of industry and idiological positions.
As Max Planck said, “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.”
This is equally true when said opponent is motivated by something other than science.
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nigelj at 06:28 AM on 13 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
Philippe Chantreau @9 says "Hydroxychloroquine is no panacea and has significant side effects"
Correct and the clinical trials related to its usefulness for covid 19 were very small and somewhat inconclusive as below:
www.vox.com/2020/4/7/21209539/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19-clinical-trial
In addition there is quite strong evidence emerging that China have severely under reported numbers of fatalities, (easily enough googled) so their cocktail of drugs including Hydroxychloroquine doesn't appear to have been terribly effective.
If it was up to me Hydroxychloroquine might be worth trying just for very high risk patients where the prognosis is very bleak.
It looks more like Chinas lock down measures that actually worked to at least stop the growth in numbers.
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Philippe Chantreau at 01:20 AM on 13 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
JW Rebel's multiple points appear extremely ill informed, and have internal contradictions.
Zoonotic origin has been firmly established.
Hydroxychloroquine is no panacea and has significant side effects, including cardiac arrest, arrythmias requiring defibrillation, profound hypoglycemia etc. It is by no means a risk free drug. Overdose is extremely toxic, often lethal. When I was growing up in Africa, it was known to be a suicide risk for troubled teens who had to take malaria prophylaxis, like everybody else. There is no conclusive evidence that HCQ/AZT actually helps outcomes.
Asian countries achieved control at the price of drastic social distancing and self quarantine measures, the very thing that JW Rebel complains about.
The fact that the survival rate of critically ill patients is low makes a strong argument for limiting contagion, less we allow something similar to the 1918 pandemic to happen.
The whole point of social distancing is to prevent overwhelming health care facilities. The alternative would be to not practice distancing and tell people to not bring their sick relative to the hospital. We're talking about people in their 50s and early 60s, here; they work, they have families and other responsibilities. How is that going to go down in the Western world where we find it normal to code, intubate and throw heroic measures at people in their 90s with multiple chronic conditions?
The fact that most working families do not have savings to withstand a crisis on the horizon of a few months speaks volumes on how unhealthy the entire socio-economic system has become. The fact that corporations that pay dividends would not be able to have a financial safety cushion is just mind boggling.
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sailrick at 01:04 AM on 13 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
J W Rebel @2.
"[1] Zoonotic origin. No direct evidence given for zoonotic origin"Yes there is.
How China’s “Bat Woman” Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus
Moderator Response:[JH] Activated url link.
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MA Rodger at 18:23 PM on 12 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
prove we are smart @37,
Your contention @32 was that "Google and Amazon are now in the oil business," (this being the title of a webpage @vox.com) and that would bring into question Google's stance on climate denialism with Google being the owners of YouTube. That webpage you link-to actually says very little but more informative are some of its links (eg here) which describe Google, Amazon and others providing services for the oil industry. That isn't quite the same as being 'in' the oil industry.
Having the oil industry as a client is a relationship many many companies have. The novel point to the the services being offered by Google etc is that it is about using high tech (eg AI) to improve the efficiency of oil extraction, indeed of oil exploration. You may argue the ethics of providing such services, as Michael Mann does in the webpage I linked above which also describes the creation of Google's Oil, Gas & Energy Division. To suggest such moves by Google would cause it to support climate denialism (or cause it not not shut down denialist YouTube content) is surely a bit of a leap.
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MA Rodger at 18:17 PM on 12 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
Duncan61 @34,
You ask about "Sea level due to ice melting and warming expansion" adding "some claim it is happening and provide data, some claim there is more ice and provide data."
The increase in sea level due to melting ice and warming oceans is easy to demonstrate.
So I would suggest that the "claim there is more ice" is the point needing examination. You say these "some ... provide data." While I could find some contrarian website with articles attempting to set out such claims (eg here), these may not be what you are looking at. So could you provide a link or two containing the claims you're talking about?
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nigelj at 18:01 PM on 12 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
J W Rebel @2.
"Don't forget, a 12% save rate with people on ventilators is the highest claim I've seen; it was 5% in Wuhan."
Correct about Wuhan. About 30% in the UK and Washington State survive as below. This appears to be the best outcome, with 55% being normal for other respiratory problems. So its not as bad as you say but still pretty bad.
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RedBaron at 17:34 PM on 12 April 2020Startups aim to pay farmers to bury carbon pollution in soil
@4 doug,
As it turns out, no I had never tried them. And as it turns out moments after seeing your post I did go there and begin their process.
Turns out their peer review and verification process can be tough at times. However, for the last two months I have been hammering it out with their reviewers and did eventually get approved. The project goes live on the 16th.
Thanks very much for directing me to them. It was frustrating at times, but in the end I feel it was a very good way to proceed. I even managed to get an endorsement by none other than Joel Salatin! While I have been in touch with him before by email and phone, this is the first direct endorsement I ever got of that caliber and he probably would not have done so without it being such a reputable site.
Thanks very much for the link. I owe you. Feel free to come by this summer for a free box of tomatoes ;)
What is the rate a new regenerative agricultural method sequesters carbon in the soil?
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prove we are smart at 16:42 PM on 12 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
Bob Loblaw@33,yes choose carefully, this climate blog site S S, I use and recommend on my other forums. But what I wondered at 32 is because Google now has increasingly more involvement with the fossel fuel moguls-should the status quo change?
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/1/3/21030688/google-amazon-ai-oil-gas
Moderator Response:[DB] Hot-linked URL.
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Philippe Chantreau at 14:21 PM on 12 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
" Are there any virus diseases which we have been able to eradicate, barring small pox?"
I am surprised that JW Rebel is asking a question that is so easy to answer.
-Rabies, effectively eradicated among humans and even animal populations with enough coverage.
_Polio, wherever campaigns were completed as planned, effectively eradicated in the Western World.
-Mumps, same as above.
-Varicella, same again.
-Rubella, same.
Some vaccines have not been available for long enough but HPV caused cancers can potentially be eradicated. Same goes for Hepatitis A and B.
There has been some pseudo-debate on the value of vaccinating against Measles, but the reality remains that Measles can potentially be quite serious, leading to penumonia or encephalitis, or even subacute sclerosing panencephalitis, possibly decades later. There is no honest debate to be had there.
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nigelj at 14:19 PM on 12 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
Rebel @2, clarification. "[1] Zoonotic origin. No direct evidence given for zoonotic origin"...."Sounds a bit like your unsubstantiated opinion."
I meant to say I recall reading there was direct evidence, and that you are making quite a few assertions without explaining yourself.
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Eclectic at 12:39 PM on 12 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
Duncan @ 34 , you seem to be getting nowhere fast.
# Your problem is that you are swallowing a great bunch of bullshit and only a tiny bunch of scientific facts & analysis.
What's worse, you don't seem to be trying to recognize the difference between bullshit and fact.
If you wish to really understand the situation, then educate yourself. If you are not a keen reader ~ then use Youtube. Sure, there's a lot more rubbish than reality published on Youtube, and the Youtube organization won't give you any guidance in distinguishing what's what. So, you yourself will need to choose . . . wisely.
Duncan, the more you educate yourself, the easier it gets to recognize the bullshit propaganda. A good start is the Youtube video series by science-journalist Potholer54. His first video is titled: "Climate Change - the scientific debate" . . . and there are 50 more in the series (most are 5 - 15 minutes long).
Potholer54 is informative & entertaining (and often amusing, too !)
He doesn't cover everything . . . but he is very good at pointing out a lot of the bullshit coming from the usual (mostly American) propagandists. Potholer54 doesn't have an Aussie accent, but he's lived long enough in Australia to get very well acquainted with that good old Aussie word "bullshit". (Yeah, well, maybe the word wasn't invented in Oz, but most Aussies fancy they have a well-developed Bullshit Detector. Except you, Duncan ~ your BS Detector seems to be faulty or non-existent . . . or maybe you just choose not to use it on Climate stuff.)
Get with the strength, Duncan. Use Youtube & Potholer54. Then you can come to SkepticalScience for lots of finer details.
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nigelj at 12:28 PM on 12 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
duncan61 @34, you claim some data supports sea level rise and some data says there is more ice, so presumably no sea level rise. You give no details or examples or sources.
Sea level rise is measured by both tidal gauges and satellite and they both unequivocally show sea leve rise. Satellites are also able to monitor the mass balance of ice sheets and show Greenland is losing ice dramatically and Antarctica is losing ice slightly. Glaciers are also monitored and most are losing ice. If you just bothered to read the appropriate information under secptical myths on the left side of this page you can get some details.
Now the denialist side of the debate typically make claims that glaciers are advancing, but if you read carefully they refer to just a small subset of glaciers, or they say sea ice is increasing somewhere when this doesn't actually affect sea level rise so its not relevant. Or they say Antarctica is not losing ice or much ice, while not mentioning that plenty of other places are. Or sometimes the denialists data is just made up.
None of this is new, in fact its now almost ancient history. I have several times explained these sorts of climate things diplomatically but you dont seem to get it. I cannot make you understand if you can't or won't, and I can't teach you critical thinking skills if you cant or wont.
We have tidal gauges and satellites and historical photos and god knows what all pointing to melting ice and sea level rise and its very hard for me to believe these systems of measurement and observation would all be 100% wrong because so many differerent monitoring systems show the same thing. I equally find it hard to believe its all some conspiracy. But perhaps you are built differently.
Personally I think you are just trolling for attention, and that you will come back with a whole lot of silly data.
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nigelj at 11:50 AM on 12 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
JWRebel @2
There are far too many points and questions for me to respond to, so Ive just picked out a few that relate to things I have some knowledge of form our media.
"Nothing particularly new in this interview."
Ok maybe so, but you seem to be judging it as something meant to inform experts. It was intended more for the general public that may know virtually nothing about the issues.
"[1] Zoonotic origin. No direct evidence given for zoonotic origin"
Sounds a bit like your unsubstantiated opinion. And its an article directed at the general public not a 20 page thesis on the subject!
"[2] I have not seen anybody make a cost benefit case for social distancing. "
I have in our local media. I can't find the article but they assumed about $2 million (NZ) per human life being average earnings potential and deduced from this the government could spend $150 billion on assistance to business during a lock down, thus giving a basis to put a time frame on a lock down (all other things being equal).
"What will be the costs in human life years of the global depression we are now headed into? "
We don't know that we are heading into a global depression. The data suggests a deep recession at this stage. But I take your point, an economic recession or depression can cost lives, and obviously reduce quality of life.
My own view is that the scenario in Italy is very scary, and some level of border controls and social isolation seems very justified in my country at least (New Zealand), especially as we had a lot of tourism, but I'm not immune to the considerable economic problems lock downs bring, and their social and health implications. That is also very scary. For that reason I think lock downs have to be of limited duration, enough to buy time to strengthen health care systems, deveop a vaccine, and flatten the curve. Just so you know where I'm coming from.
"How many lives have we actually saved? "Don't forget, a 12% save rate with people on ventilators is the highest claim I've seen; it was 5% in Wuhan. If we take a one year survivor horizon, it will be even slimmer. Most of the people that didn't go to ICU would survive without hospital care (oxygen can be administered at home), so it isn't at all clear what the lives saved margin really is. "
Where have you seen your claims about ventilators? Administering oxygen at home has various logistical complications and the patient is certainly going to be infecting the whole family. But I don't really know I'm not a health care expert.
"[3] China adopted HCQ + Zinc + Azithromycin +Remdesavir in their standard treatment guidelines after published clinical studies on Feb19. So did S. Korea, which had far lower mortality numbers. Yes, there are a lot more angles to this, but we seem incapable of learning from the Chinese. "
Who is we? New Zealand has copied China's lock down policy and social distancing and shortly after this rates of growth in infections started to slow and I doubt its a coincidence. Nothing much else explains it. We also used track and trace from very early on like Asian countries. Our infection rates and fatality rates are quite low comparitively speaking (easily googled).
"Do we actually know if the oral-fecal route is not important?"
This is a rather technical question for this climate website.
" Do we know whether health care itself is not a primary vector? "
I recall reading that hospitals are a major source of spread and its important to keep covid 19 patients in their own isolated wards and keep health care professionals divided into groups, and that some places are doing this.
No doubt there are things we dont know. Im not sure what you real point is. Its a new virus, the experts are dealing with it as best they can.
I have read several experts saying aerosols are a minor factor and why, and none saying they are a major factor.
"China immediately started building/dedicating facilities b/c hospitals were transmission nodes, and a third of the health care workers in Wuhan were out of commission. Interview does not mention any of this."
No it didn't. Maybe they should have, but no interview printed in the media is going to cover everything.
"[4] Vaccines. This is happy talk. Is there a vaccine for HIV or SARS? No. "
But my understanding is the Sars vaccine was cancelled because SARS fizzled out.
"Are there any virus diseases which we have been able to eradicate, barring small pox? "
Why are you asking me this? Vaccines keep measels and seasonal flu at very low levels (depending on public uptake). Dont make the perfect the enemy of the good.
Are there any vaccines against Corona viruses human or veterinarian which give more than an ephemeral protection? Do people have long-lasting antibodies to protect them against colds (Corona viruses)? No."
I read an article that although getting a corunavirus related cold does not give immunity, people who get reinfected dont have any symptoms or symptoms are at very low level as below, so its possible it may be the same with covid 19:
https://play.stuff.co.nz/details/_6145112480001
"[5] Did we do a good job protecting our health care and the most vulnerable? No. "
Again who is we? New Zealand required elderly (over 70) and vulnerable to self isolate early in the growth curve. Personally I think that is the key to the whole issue.
"Having schools shut does not significantly impact ICU demand. The entire spike in ICU demand would have to come from the risk groups. But we have shut down the economy without taking appropriate steps to quarantine the most important vector (the vulnerable), which represent virtually the entire pool (>98%) of ICU demand. 40% of deaths have come from nursing homes, globally! Not counting all those who die at home (too frail to go to ICU). These places/people should have been locked down in February, with zero people entering or exiting. Pay the staff triple overtime for staying on premise (way cheaper than Tr$6 to save all the banks and hedge funds)."
Sounds like you mean America? Young people are carriers and often asymptomatic, so surely that ultimately means it spreads at school and from there to older people? That said, I admit closing schools is a big thing and can't last indefinitely for obvious reasons.
Like I said we in NZ have isolated the elderly in home isolation early in the growth curve. However it leaves the rest home problem, although they have stopped allowing visitors from a couple of weeks ago. Most of our fatalities have been from a rest home cluster. I agree pay rest home (nursing home) staff triple the pay to stay on the premises.
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duncan61 at 10:46 AM on 12 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
I am sure I am on topic here and would like to share my opinion.At this point in time the AGW debate is occupying a lot of my thoughts and I am still on the fence.I watch a lot of youtube on both sides of the debate and at this point I believe that there is some merit in the CO2 warming effect however it is being blown out of proportion to reality as most of the predicted events are not happening.I will live for another 20 years and if nothing is happening still where do we go.
.Sea level due to ice melting and warming expansion
some claim it is happening and provide data
some claim there is more ice and provide data
The sea level is the biggest deal to me all the other claims of ocean acid bushfires drought etc??
I visit a lot of forums and this one is unique in the only one I feel I have been offended when a comment was posted that anyone who does not believe we are all doomed wholeheartedly is an idiot.
If this forum is for believers only I will not weigh in again.Regards Duncan
Moderator Response:[DB] Fake cries of ad hominem and egregious strawman claims snipped.
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michael sweet at 10:19 AM on 12 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
JWRebel,
Please provide references for all your claims. The zoonotic orgin has been demonstrated by DNA analysis. Likewise the rest of your claims are not what has been widely reported in newspapers (I read the Guardian, BBC, Politico, CNN, LA Times and NY Times.).
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JWRebel at 08:43 AM on 12 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
@Nigelj Couldn't disagree more. Nothing particularly new in this interview.
[1] Zoonotic origin. No direct evidence given for zoonotic origin. There are a host of obstacles to the zoonotic claim. Not mentioning these and not offering direct evidence means it's not scientific. Any scientific approach should not fail to mention strengths and weaknesses of competing hypotheses. That's the trouble with most slanted information/propaganda — failure to take into account contrary evidence and hypotheses, which are almost always present.
[2] I have not seen anybody make a cost benefit case for social distancing. What will be the costs in human life years of the global depression we are now headed into? How many millions of families in the informal economy are already having to tell their children there is no food? How many people will have no health care access at all in the future? How many lives have we actually saved? Don't forget, a 12% save rate with people on ventilators is the highest claim I've seen; it was 5% in Wuhan. If we take a one year survivor horizon, it will be even slimmer. Most of the people that didn't go to ICU would survive without hospital care (oxygen can be administered at home), so it isn't at all clear what the lives saved margin really is. There is plenty of evidence that the R₀ (reproduction rates) rolled over before NPI's (non-pharmaceutical interventions) could have had an impact.
[3] China adopted HCQ + Zinc + Azithromycin +Remdesavir in their standard treatment guidelines after published clinical studies on Feb19. So did S. Korea, which had far lower mortality numbers. Yes, there are a lot more angles to this, but we seem incapable of learning from the Chinese. Do we actually know if the oral-fecal route is not important? Do we know whether health care itself is not a primary vector? Do we know how minor the aerosol vector is? The Chinese and Koreans (index patient 31, super spreader) warned about asymptomatic carriers in January (later studies show 79% of infections caused by asymptomatic carriers), but many Western countries denied it. Singapore warned about the extreme transmissability via various routes. China immediately started building/dedicating facilities b/c hospitals were transmission nodes, and a third of the health care workers in Wuhan were out of commission. Interview does not mention any of this.
[4] Vaccines. This is happy talk. Is there a vaccine for HIV or SARS? No. Vaccine formulations for SARS led to ADE in cats (antigen dependant enhancement, making subsequent infection progress more catastrophically instead of less). Are there any virus diseases which we have been able to eradicate, barring small pox? Are there any vaccines against Corona viruses human or veterinarian which give more than an ephemeral protection? Do people have long-lasting antibodies to protect them against colds (Corona viruses)? No. Does everybody show strong antigen protection after recovery from Covid? No, au contraire.
[5] Did we do a good job protecting our health care and the most vulnerable? No. Having schools shut does not significantly impact ICU demand. The entire spike in ICU demand would have to come from the risk groups. But we have shut down the economy without taking appropriate steps to quarantine the most important vector (the vulnerable), which represent virtually the entire pool (>98%) of ICU demand. 40% of deaths have come from nursing homes, globally! Not counting all those who die at home (too frail to go to ICU). These places/people should have been locked down in February, with zero people entering or exiting. Pay the staff triple overtime for staying on premise (way cheaper than Tr$6 to save all the banks and hedge funds).
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nigelj at 07:07 AM on 12 April 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
Thank's for the covid 19 article. It is very detailed and one of the best I've read on the issue. However this company reckons they could have a vaccine on the market by September.
One reason Germany has a reasonably low mortality rate could be because it has a high number of hospital beds and also ventilators per 1000 people. In comparison Italy has the opposite. America is somewhere in the middle. I did some googling on this and didn't keep a record of the data and sources on ventilators, but you can find numbers of hospital beds per 1000 people here.
It appears there is a philosophy in some countries of minimising numbers of hospital beds to save costs and treat as many people at home as possible. I recall this from our media some years ago. Unfortunately this has problems when you get huge surges of patients with natural disasters and pandemics.
That said, numbers of beds would be one factor of many. It appears that even ventilators arent saving some people.
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Bob Loblaw at 05:09 AM on 12 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
Prove (may I call you "Prove"?:
To paraphrase something first seen in a comment over at Real Climate: the difference between Google and your local library is that one of the two is trying to make you smarter, while the other is trying to sell you $#!^. Choose carefully.
For all the amaziing information available on the Internet, you have to remember that much of it is wrong. Critical thinking is more of a need than ever before.
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prove we are smart at 19:33 PM on 11 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
Sorry to butt in, but since Youtube is Google, after just watching this, should I be more concerned about bias on the internet? " Google and Amazon are now in the oil business"
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/1/3/21030688/google-amazon-ai-oil-gas
Moderator Response:[DB] Hyperlinked URL.
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prove we are smart at 18:41 PM on 11 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
I guess here is where i should mention this, beware this morally deficient blog site. See what Wiki says-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_of_Public_Affairs
It appeared as a popup on Youtube-I get angry now when I read these falsehoods, how many believe this stuff? Except for a different countries name added at end of the title, there seemed many more..
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nigelj at 15:39 PM on 11 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
Eclectic @28 &29, yes I thought you were talking aloud to anyone and everyone, not just me and the regulars. I do this myself at times.
And the New Zealand climate science coalition has been outsourced, after shooting themselves in their own feet. You can get the history on both on their wikipedia entry, and in more detail below. And this bit of history is an absolute gem:
theconversation.com/an-insiders-story-of-the-global-attack-on-climate-science-21972
www.stuff.co.nz/national/7634556/Climate-sceptics-fail-in-Niwa-case
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Eclectic at 13:38 PM on 11 April 2020YouTube's Climate Denial Problem
Nigelj , an addendum :- Yes, the climatescience.org.nz does have that fingerprint ~ a professional slickness. Now I am wondering if the scrubbing of all comments sections [rather unusual for a propaganda website] is a sign that they don't wish to deal with presumably-local people.
Drawing a long bow perhaps ~ but could this mean that the website has been outsourced to international management (Heartland, for example) ??
Once you remove local input/interaction, it would take very little effort & expense for an international player to just paste in some samples of their standard propaganda material.
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