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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Recent Comments

Comments 12051 to 12100:

nigelj at 05:18 AM on 13 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

OPOF @29, yes that sounds right. Have a read of this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_foundations_theory

michael sweet at 03:08 AM on 13 February 2019

On Buying Insurance, and Ignoring Cost-Benefit Analysis

Wol,

I noticed that the article also left out that all matter is made of atoms and that electricity is caused by the flow of electrons.

Clearly the OP does not have enough space to reinvent all of science. Mr. Ackerman has to leave out things that are well known to be true. As Nigelj has shown, the statement that renewable energy is cheaper than any other energy source is easily confirmed with a simple GOOGLE search.

In addition, the cost of renewable energy is still going down. Costs of fossil fuels will only go up as they are used up. Distractions like questions about storage, which have been answered in the peer reviewed literature, while leaving out the immense current and future costs of fossil fuels (coal alone kills over 10,000 Amenican citizens and causes over $40 billion in health costs per year, not to mention sea level rise and stronger storms) is simply stalling reasoned discussion.

One Planet Only Forever at 02:02 AM on 13 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

My statement about Unite the Right members (like the USA GOP) being "... Loyal to the Authority they see as Puritan Protectors of the Status of their Tribe" is based on the understanding presented by Jonathan Haidt in "The Righteous Mind".

The Righteous Mind in a nut shell is that it is possible for humans to think that 'morality' is based on:

Help/Harm
Fairness
Loyalty to a Tribe
Subservience to or respect for Tribal Leadership
Perceptions of Cleanliness of their Tribe relative to Others
Freedom to do as you please

Many members of humanity develop an understanding of morals that people are free to do as they wish as long as they are governed by:

Not harming Others
Being Fair to Others

Others will willingly do harm to Others and be unfair to Others because they have become Loyal, Authority following, Defenders of the perceptions of Purity, Cleanliness and Superiority of Their United Right Tribes (they will deliberately compromise the moral concerns of harm and fairness in order to be Loyal, Subservient followers of the 'Authority in Their Tribe' and steadfast believers of the Superiority and the Purity of Their Tribe). As presented by Sally Kohn in "The Opposite of Hate" they will fight (even viciously) against anything they perceive as 'unacceptable', including fighting against improving their awareness and understanding of the harmful incorrectness of Their Tribe and its Leadership.

One Planet Only Forever at 16:06 PM on 12 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Mal Adapted,

I agree with the importance of rapid action to minimize the climate change harm that is done to the future of humanity. But I would suggest that many significant recent global conflicts, including the Syrian and Sudan tragedies that were likely triggered by unanticipated climate events (prolonged droughts), were more due to incorrect Social, Economic and Political development than the climate change impacts.

So climate change impacts do need to be urgently addressed, but the incorrect socioeconomic-political systems create more threats that are actually more immediate. So I would suggest it is important to "Add" climate action to the long understood need for Social, Economic and Political corrections (that include developing decent health care for all citizens of the USA and reversing things like Gerrymandering, Voter Suppression, and twisted Census Questions that the GOP have implemented (or tried to implement), in desperate attempts to prolong their ability to regionally win politically incorrectly).

And it is important that the corrections implemented regarding climate change be done in concert with actions that also correct related already developed Social and Economic problems. The leadership of France blew it when they implemented a Carbon Fee without clear related programs to assist those already suffering who would be further negatively impacted. Even a Carbon Fee and Rebate program may be an inadequate way of addressing the existing developed Socio-Economic situations that require correction.

I will close with a different perspective on Phillip's comment @25. The lack of responsible leadership regarding the required corrections of developed Socioeconomic-political systems through the past 30 years has developed larger more urgent problems that all need to be corrected. The likes of the current Winners of Control of the GOP would probably like more people to give up on caring about the future of humanity, but it is essential that the current GOP supporters who are incorrectly Loyal to the Authority they see as Puritan Protectors of the Status of their Tribe be exposed to how harmful and unfair, how fundamentally morally incorrect, their Tribal Leadership actually is. Much harm has been done by their incorrect unjustified Winning.

The real problem is that the GOP Tribe, like other Unite the Right Tribes, is determined to remain United in resistance to correction of all of their collected interests that are undeniably in need of correction based on improved understanding, including resisting effective climate action. Their history of actions is very evident. They are United to resist correction. So even though a portion of the GOP say they support climate action, as long as they remain Loyal Followers of the current GOP Leadership they will vote against any effective correction even if it is understandably harmful to do so (even if they are nice helpful caring Family/Community people, they will support harmful actions to defend the Status of their Tribe).

Sally Kohn's book is quite Enlightening regarding the tragic harmful Tribalness that has developed and can powerfully resist correction.

JWRebel at 13:35 PM on 12 February 2019

On Buying Insurance, and Ignoring Cost-Benefit Analysis

An excellent explanation, clearly hitting the main points and making an appeal to easily grasped parallels.

JWRebel at 13:33 PM on 12 February 2019

On Buying Insurance, and Ignoring Cost-Benefit Analysis

nigelj @1: It is very manageable. Spending 3.1% on the military primarily buys us enemies; better to spend the money on really defending ourselves from what is really threatening us. The defense money could easily be diverted — making the net costs $0.

Wol at 11:35 AM on 12 February 2019

On Buying Insurance, and Ignoring Cost-Benefit Analysis

nigelj @3: Thanks. I was going to complain that externalities aren't considered costs but the Wikipedia article does address them. Whether the piece we are referring to does I don't know, but a 20 - 30% extra cost would change the argument substantially.

Mal Adapted at 10:57 AM on 12 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

OPOF @24, well said. I differ slightly with

the Sustainable Development Goals are understood to be collectively required (nothing sustainable is achieved if only some parts of the holistic objective are achieved - but admittedly climate action is a significant element of the set of objectives).

I would say rather that if we don't address anthropogenic global warming immediately, we won't have the option to do the others. IMHO, a 'market-driven' transition to a carbon-neutral global economy is achievable without broad social upheaval, through policies like a US national Carbon Fee and Dividend. It would only be a quick fix, not addressing the fallacy of endless economic growth, but it would postpone the urgency of that debate. There's no reason to stop debating, of course, but I predict a well-designed CF&D with BAT will lead to a quicker climate fix than reorganizing global society from top to bottom.

That said, a stable global population with a steady-state, 100% renewable or recycled economy would seem to be our only long-term alternative to eventual global economic and demographic collapse. Capping the warming only buys us time. Hopefully we won't approach stability by repeated over- and undershoot, albeit in a stable climate!

nigelj at 09:21 AM on 12 February 2019

On Buying Insurance, and Ignoring Cost-Benefit Analysis

"Does the electricity get measured in Kw, or Kwh? (Power or energy?) Does the cost include decommisssioning costs or replacement? There are other criteria but you get my point."

Levelised costs of virtually all forms types electricty generation here and here. (comparing like with like, and including lifetime costs and maintainance etc). Includes data on battery storage as well.

nigelj at 09:03 AM on 12 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

John McKeon @21

"Decarbonising economies is a huge task and very, very necessary. "

Yes, and hopefully nobody would argue with that. And something about The Green New Deal is connecting with people because they are noticing it and talking about it. Perhaps because it's a bold statement and comprehensive, and unequivocal something thats been a little lacking from people like Hilary Clinton. I dont see anyone who is environmentally conscious writing it off as complete rubbish either, so its being talked about for the right reasons.

But the devil is in the detail. Like I said thats when real discussion will start. How do we fund such a massive government infrastructure spend? From what I hear the plan proposes either deficit financing or money creation. Given the economic costs appear to be around 1.5% of gdp this might well be possible, but its going to be a political battle, and imho a carbon tax avoids many of these difficulties.

And then there's the question of the social provisions. The messages are fine by me, but is the Green New Deal the right document to deliver them in? Yes as OPOF points out the plan is not going to be put up as one piece of legisation, but by mixing so many things together in one document negative reactions against the social provisions will be used as an excuse to label the green provisions socialist (they aren't imho but you know what I mean). People will say remember The Green New Deal....It's stupid mud slinging, but why invite it?

But the plan is an honest, open statement of what The Democrats stand for and takes a stand over a set of values. Something to really admire in that. Maybe this will win through in the end.

Wol at 08:19 AM on 12 February 2019

On Buying Insurance, and Ignoring Cost-Benefit Analysis

>>In the windiest and sunniest parts of the world (and the United States), new wind and solar power installations now produce electricity at costs equal to or lower than from fossil fuel-burning plants<<

A statement which on its own looks good, but comes without any parameters.

Does the electricity get measured in Kw, or Kwh? (Power or energy?) Does the cost include decommisssioning costs or replacement? There are other criteria but you get my point.

Deniers always bring up the "sun doesn't shine all the time" and "wind doesn't blow all the time" arguments - which are, with the paucity of power storage, valid. A statement such as this is no counterargument without the full facts being available.

Philippe Chantreau at 04:07 AM on 12 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Whatever we do, I am tending to think it will too little, by orders of magnitude, too late. Humans are failing because of the flaws in their nature. We continue playing our little games while massive changes are taking place right in front of our eyes, geological scale events that command far less attention from the public than some famous girl's dress color on some day.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718313636

One Planet Only Forever at 02:16 AM on 12 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

The Green New Deal is not intended to be a massive single piece of legislation.

The Objectives of the Green New Deal need to be understood to lead to a collective diversity of required legislative corrective actions, like the Sustainable Development Goals are understood to be collectively required (nothing sustainable is achieved if only some parts of the holistic objective are achieved - but admittedly climate action is a significant element of the set of objectives).

Trump won partially because the Demorcats missed reaching out to and connecting with all of the economically and socially disadvantaged. However, a failure of the likes of the Democrats to correct misunderstandings about "what is helpful and what is harmful and what is really going on", is not a good reason to compromise improved understanding.

One Planet Only Forever at 01:45 AM on 12 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

I see many comments that appear to be based on the belief that compromising understanding for the benefit of incorrectly developed popularity and profitability is required (another way of referring to beliefs that the current controlling interests of the likes of the GOP need to be allowed to compromise what is actually understood to need to be corrected to develop a sustainable better future for humanity).

The Tribes that encourage people to be greedier and less tolerant of diversity and try to keep their regional and global collectives United to have more power to resist correction are a serious "developed and developing" problem.

That harmful development needs to be corrected. Believing it is possible to get better results out of an understandably corrupted system without correcting the serious flaws and errors that have developed in the system is like that classic definition of Insanity.

The United Tribes like the GOP need to be broken up for Good Reason. Either the GOP will end up correcting itself or it will have no future (and will do as much harmful resistance to correction as it can get away with).

The ability of groups like the GOP to evade exposure of their members to the understanding of their collective unacceptability is a serious problem that needs to be corrected.

Each action in the Sustainable Development Goals can be a wedge in the likes of the GOP, as long as the people trying to improve the understanding of the incorrectly developed beliefs among the likes of the GOP Unite in support of all of the Sustainable Development Goals. The alternative, a fracturing of the efforts to correct all that is collectively incorrect about the GOP, is likely exactly what the Tribal Leaders of the GOP want. They want to see Climate Action people arguing against Social correction people, or against other pursuers of different environmental or social or political corrections. The likes of the GOP do not want to see anything "change contrary to their interests". They really do not want to see "All Others Uniting to Correct Them".

michael sweet at 21:48 PM on 11 February 2019

A Green New Deal must not sabotage climate goals

Red Baron,

I see no references to peer reviewed data in your most recent response. It appears to me that your claims of unbelievable amounts of CO2 sequestered in farmland come from your personal projections unknown to anyone else. Your objections to fee and dividend are unsupported by the peer reviewed literature.

You have made these unsupported claims repeatedly here at Skeptical Science. To me it is simply propaganda for your personal agenda. Find some papers that support your claims. While I think your goals of improving land using organic principles is laudable, you have not demonstrated that it is achievable.

I will not post again on this topic unless you provide actual citations to support your wild claims.

Climate Smart Agriculture may assist in the response to AGW, but it is not a silver bullet to resolve Global Warming.

scaddenp at 19:34 PM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

KR - actually that is a good point. Thanks for injecting some hope. Nigelj - the public support in the poll was based on a paraphrase of text which pretty much asked if you support motherhood and apple pie. The numerous attack points in the actual text will see that support plummet as the detail becomes known.

nigelj at 18:33 PM on 11 February 2019

On Buying Insurance, and Ignoring Cost-Benefit Analysis

Great read. Agree with the need to base risk analysis on worst case scenarios even if they are low probability. This is the entire planet we are talking about, so you have to be very cautious.

Article says "Robert Pollin, an economist who has studied green new deal options, estimates that annual investment of about 1.5 percent of GDP would be needed. That’s about $300 billion a year for the United States, and four times as much, $1.2 trillion a year, for the world economy. "

To put this in context, America spent approx. the following last year as a percentage of GDP: Military 3.1%, education 4.9%, healthcare (private plus government) 17%, and pensions 7.4%. These numbers are easily googled.

It just seems that a Green New Deal investment of 1.5% is very manageable. Even if it was 3% its manageable.

So why is the world in such a state of apathy and slowness on the whole thing? I think it's not really economic. It's psychological apathy and confusion. It's denial campaigns, and poor communication to the public of costs. Its political capture by corporate lobby groups.

John McKeon at 18:18 PM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

nigelj says:
“Carbon fee and dividend is an economic mechanism applied to an environmental problem. There is a substantive difference between that and quality healthcare, minimum wages etc. I'm surprised you can't see this.”

Thank you for setting me straight about your home country. By the way, of course I can contemplate and discuss quality healthcare and minimum wages and environmental policies, all as distinct issues.

Decarbonising economies is a huge task and very, very necessary. It will be transformative in every which way. We might not make it without a lot of casualties*, but what else is there to do but try to get this massive project rolling faster and hope for the best for our descendants.

[*Casualties from environmental events, including starvation and disease, and casualties of conflict engendered by humanity’s flagging environmental fortunes.]

william5331 at 16:37 PM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

We can have as many new green deals as we want and the MPs will nod their heads and agree with each of them and then go off and do the bidding of their financers. Who Pays the Piper Calls the Tune.

nigelj at 15:29 PM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

I suspect the public will like The Green New Deal and polls suggest they do here, but I suspect politicians will hate it particularly the GOP.

America has developed a total schizophrenia between the population and politicians. A lot of this is probably due to the huge influence of lobby groups and financial donations. It's the same everywhere but seems particularly obvious in America.

But a lot of it comes down to how its funded. Thats when the real debate will start.

KR at 14:14 PM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

I think it was quite worthwhile. I am certain this particular proposal won't go anywhere as written, but the Overton Window, the the range of ideas tolerated in public discourse, is moving as a result.

I see clear changes occurring in political discourse due to AOC's "70% marginal tax rate" discussion, for example (the norm in the US from the 30's to the 70's, but not now), and expect the same of the Green New Deal.

scaddenp at 14:06 PM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Seems to me more like a shot into own bows, sinking the ship. I suspect this will put climate action in the US even further back but I would love to be proved wrong. Ideally, the GOP should respond with a counter-deal without the junk but I think flying bacon is more likely.

KR at 13:57 PM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

From the OP - I think that the socioeconomic aspects are part of the "New Deal", while the "Green" refers to the climate change/ecological aspects. Don't make the mistake of assuming that the "Green" portion means this is strictly about the ecology.

It's definitely ambitious, and definitely won't go anywhere. But if I interpret it correctly, it's a first shot across the bow, a first point of disccusion regarding these topics in a town where nothing of this scale has been seriously considered since Franklin D. Roosevelt.

nigelj at 08:58 AM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Venus has an atmosphere of nearly pure CO2, (through nearly all layers) and surface temperatures of 460 deg.c that have been attributed directly to the CO2. So it seems logical to suggest if we keep adding CO2 to Earths atmosphere warming will continue until we reach something similar. It certainly looks like earth has a way to go before the greenhouse effect 'saturates'.

BeezelyBillyBub at 08:45 AM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #6

Never trust a priest or a physicist. Don't believe in things you don't understand.

*Earth's Oceans Lost In Space* - Nature Communications 2016
https://www.natureasia.com/en/research/highlight/10512

*Greenhouse Gases Boil Oceans Away* - Motherboard 2016
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/53dgmx/greenhouse-gases-could-eventually-heat-the-planet-enough-to-boil-the-oceans-away

Planets with too much carbon dioxide could lose oceans to space - New Scientist 2016
https://www.natureasia.com/en/research/highlight/10512
> Ocean loss due to vapor drift takes millions of year, but will happen likely sooner.

Stephen Hawking, All of Earth's oceans boil away into nothing - Inverse 2017
https://www.inverse.com/article/33729-stephen-hawking-trump-climate-change-venus-syndrome
> Everybody says his deathbed message is wrong, he can't defend himself.

THE CURIOUS CASE OF EARTH'S LEAKING ATMOSPHERE - ESA 2016
http://sci.esa.int/cluster/58028-the-curious-case-of-earth-s-leaking-atmosphere/
> Most interesting, earth leaks 90 tons/day into space at the poles. When magnetic poles flip, we can end up with as many as 7 poles roaming the earth all at once, lasting as long a thousand years, taking decades to pass overhead. This is especially interesting if crustal rebound affects gravity which may affect molten flux which affects magnetic flux. Or whatever.

> Another interesting factor is lower stratospheric mid-latitude ozone depletion in conjunction with magnetic field weakening. While the Antarctic ozone hole is mending the lower mid-latitude stuff has never stopped depleting, and that's where the majority of this stuff is. We never could detect the decline there until we got some new fancy ass space junk up there.

We’re Boiling the Ocean Faster Than We Thought - Intelligencer 2019
By Eric Levitz The Intelligencer > boring 2019
> Illustrates we're not as smart as we like to think.

Several billion years ago Venus had oceans and atmospheric oxygen - Daily Star 2019
https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/environment/news/welcome-the-age-climate-change-1699726
> The author is a physicist. I trust him, a little.

Rapid discharge of the earth-space battery foretells the future of humankind - PNAS 2015
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/112/31/9511.full.pdf
> No trees no air. The vacuum of space sits down on Gaia's face.

Earth will not be fine without us...

unless you are subterranean bacteria.

cut 'n paste this post to people who say:

EARTH WILL BE FINE WITHOUT US

I used all caps cuz young people hate that

This is so new, I didn't watch it yet.

https://youtu.be/HtqKdBqvkus

*The Vomitorium* https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMBRo_pT8k6JXI0kWPgGEdg/discussion

*The Dumpster*
https://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/

Moderator Response:

[PS] There might be gems in there but it looks like a gish gallop without any coherent argument. You are advised to pick a particular point you want to make. Find an appropriate thread for posting and then make your case using links to support your argument not make it.

Use the link tool in the comment editor to create your links, pasting in a URL directly into a comment doesnt work.

RedBaron at 08:34 AM on 11 February 2019

A Green New Deal must not sabotage climate goals

@Michael Sweet,

I was not refering to you and your own silo of knowledge personally, but rather the rhetorical "you" and specifically the source behind the forum thread to linked to.

The scientific basis of
climate-smart agriculture
A systematic review protocol
Working Paper No. 138

Table 1,page 16-18

The point being this is a review of minor upgrades to the traditional agricultural methods as can be clearly seen by title of the table:

Description of practices included in the meta-analysis

A person would need to know that the LCP functions entirely differently than the majority of those methods listed as part of the meta-analysis. It's as if they studied the metaphorical apple to claim results regarding oranges.

I am sure most of those so called "climate smart" practices are at least marginally better than the current widely regarded GAP. But I am equally sure that particular paper had little to nothing to do with the new paradigm based on research of the LCP. There are a few things partially applicable, but most of it doesn't apply at all. I gave you one example with the use of fertilizers, but that's a long list and I could actually go right down the list with similar.

And lastly, please stop saying I advocate a silver bullet when the exact opposite is true. From the link I gave in post #30

Reduce fossil fuel use by replacing energy needs with as many economically viable renewables as current technology allows. Please note that most current forms of ethanol gas additive are not beneficial because they further degrade the sequestration side of the carbon cycle and take more fossil fuels to produce than they offset.[8]
Change agricultural methods to high yield regenerative models of production made possible by recent biological & agricultural science advancements.[9][10]
Implement large scale ecosystem recovery projects similar to the Loess Plateau project, National Parks like Yellowstone etc. where appropriate and applicable.[11][12][13]

This is quite clearly a well rounded 3 pronged approach and vastly superior to the Fee and Dividend to all citizens approach BECAUSE that approach omits 1/2 the carbon cycle. You are actually on the side of the plan that takes a silver bullet approach, focusing only on reducing emissions.

Indeed the primary flaw of the EICDA is they pay the dividend to everyone equally whether that have a positive carbon footprint or a negative carbon footprint. That's basically shuffling the deck chairs on a sinking Titanic.

While a carbon market with verified carbon offsets literally only pays those dividends for verified and measured carbon sequestration in the soil. Then you will see how fast farmers adopt the actual LCP found in those agricultural case studies. They will be paid to perform a service. The ones performing the service of soil sequestration the most effectively will be paid more for that service.

Much more efficient dynamic than paying exactly the same regardless of whether they help or harm efforts to balance the carbon cycle.

nigelj at 08:15 AM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Scaddenp @11, yes exactly. I don't understand why people cant see this.

However I dont think pragmatistics is a word. I think you meant "pragmatists", or "pragmatism" and I'm all in favour of this. Gareth Morgan is basically a pragmatist in some ways, sadly not a great sales person.

Eclectic at 07:14 AM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Blaisct @12 ,

your ideas about CO2 are quite confused. "Saturation" has no direct relevance to global warming / greenhouse effect.

On SkepticalScience, you can educate yourself by reading the Climate Myths [see top left corner of the page] or reading a number of other threads discussing the mechanisms of greenhouse gas actions. This is very basic science indeed. Think of (your possible namesake?) Blaise Pascal and his intelligent approach of learning and thinking about problems ~ and coming to intelligent solutions.

Once you have understood the physical realities, then you can move on to the best political approaches to abating the AGW problems.

blaisct at 06:21 AM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Will some one please run some experiments to prove their theories before we make laws that may be going after the wrong culprit. Stop relying on statistical correlation and statistical models to condemn CO2. A statistical correlation is not a proof.
Let’s test the Beer Lambert law which is the dominate physical law that governs greenhouse gases and radiation absorption. Lets run an experiment to see how important CO2 is in gw. Bill Nye (the science guy) has already done one experiment with two 1 liter soda bottles one filled with air and one filled with CO2 on a dark table with thermometers installed (and the sun shining). The bottle with the CO2 got very hot. Beer Lambert would predict those results. Let’s rerun the experiment with bottles (current air CO2 and pure CO2) that are 16 meters in diameter (distance of reflected radiation from the table). Beer Lambert law says that they would be the same temperature after thermal mixing. Beer lambert predicts that no mater how large the bottles anything larger than 16 meters would still be the same temperature when the air is allowed to mix (bigger the bottles the longer the mixing time). At 16 meters the mixing equilibrium should not take long – mins vs hrs. A fan in each bottle would eliminate the mixing time variable. The energy comes from the radiation not the gas, when the radiation (of CO2’s frequency’s) is gone the heating stops.
A lot of assumptions in this experiment: the bottle would need to be made of some thing that was transparent to CO2 frequency’s, natural thermal mixing must not be impaired, the bottles must be insulated from outside heat transfer, albedo of the surface must be the same and sufficient to generate CO2 frequency’s, no water in the bottles, a bottle is probably not the best shape, and sun shining. In other words, just as close to earth’s atmosphere as possible with just the CO2 variable.
Another way to run the experiment is to take Bill Nye’s bottles 16 meters above the table. Beer lambert law would predict that both bottles would be the same temperature because they are beyond the saturation distance of current CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. In this experiment we can make the table as big as we like we just can’t change the albedo. The bottle material of construction in this experiment must not have any albedo effect.
For water the beer lambert law says the bottles needs to be about 100 meters in diameter.
Does anyone know of any experiments like this?
If these experiments prove Beer Lambert law works for CO2 in our atmosphere it shows that Beer lambert is the dominate greenhouse law and CO2 is already saturated (enough) in the atmosphere, more or less (down to 20ppm) will not change the temperature. But this does not change the significant statistical correlation of CO2 to gw. A statistical correlation is not a proof (unless used in a scientifically designed experiment). I would start looking else where for the cause of gw. I would put high priority on things that also correlate to CO2. My bet is albedo.
I don’t have any ideas on how to prove the “radiation forcing” theory proposed by the IPCC. I have read experiments that demonstrate radiation forcing with light of CO2 frequency’s supplied. The fact that NASA and other researcher have not detected any radiation of CO2 frequency’s in the troposphere makes CO2 specific radiation forcing doubtful.

Moderator Response:

[PS] This is extremely confused. You need to read closely how the greenhouse effect work. Experiments in a lab measure the radiative properties of gases, but GHE is something that depends on these and the temperture/pressure in the atmosphere. Because it is critical to many application, the effect of the atmosphere on radiation passing through it has been deeply studied. The observation base used by climate models originated with the USAF (MODTRAN). The increase of radiation warming the surface due to the GHE has been directly measured. See here for most recent experiment. Observation match the theory at multiple levels.

"The fact that NASA and other researcher have not detected any radiation of CO2 frequency’s in the troposphere makes CO2 specific radiation forcing doubtful."

Please provide a reference for this statement (Otherwise it is simply sloganeering and not compliant with policy). I suspect you have either misunderstood material or been misled by a misinformation site.

scaddenp at 06:06 AM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Well I think Green New Deal actually typifies a lot of what is wrong with US politics, speaking as arm chair observer living in NZ. Under "it is the duty of the Federal Government to create a Green New Deal" you would applaud the first 4 points as aspirational goals dealing with problems that need to be addressed. No issue.

The fifth point would be a short precise of what right-wing would call the "the liberal agenda" and frankly would doom it. Now I dont disagree with many of those points but getting a green deal on the earlier points is going to need votes from some of those who would see this item as a serious red flag. Worse, it just plays into the hands of those promoting the idea that climate change is a manufactured crisis pushed by a nefarious conspiracy of international illuminati to undermine capitalism and "freedoms". They would see the Green New Deal as a trojan horse and possibly with some justification.

There are also points there I think are fundimentally unobtainable and/or undesirable. A changing social landscape is a given. You cannot necessarily fix "deindustrialized communities, depopulated rural communities". When a mine is exhausted it closes. Mechanised agriculture needs less labour. It would be like trying to mandate a continuation of blacksmiths and lively stables.

"achieve maximal energy efficiency, water efficiency, safety, affordability, comfort, and durability"

Come on, that is a frustration matrix - might as well try to legislate on 2nd law of thermodynamics. Try "optimal" instead of "maximal".

It looks to me like a bunch of good ideas have been torpedoed by ideologues by providing a target-rich document to those who will oppose it. I would be amazed if this could be sold to american people and worse still it may poison the ground for more sensible future proposals.

Idealogues are the bane of politics no matter what the colour. Now is the time for pragmatistics like no other.

nigelj at 05:13 AM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

OPOF @7, yes there is a relationship between environmental, social and economic ideas, but mix those goals up in a single document called a Green Plan and we are just handing the GOP an easy weapon to cry socialism or expensive free public healthcare and other inane and misleading but effective scaremongering, then the green goals become discredited by association. It needs to be about strategy.

I would have had two plans, a green plan and an economic plan. Yes there is overlap obviously, but they are not one and the same thing.

I do like the fact the Democrats have a Green Plan, something comprehensive, rather than just a couple of isolated ideas that would get lost among so many other political policies.

nigelj at 04:43 AM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

John McKeon @7, I'm a New Zealand citizen. I take a little bit of interest in American politics because Im interested in politics and its hard to avoid American politics, Trump is in our news virtually every day.

Carbon fee and dividend is an economic mechanism applied to an environmental problem. There is a substantive difference between that and quality healthcare, minimum wages etc. I'm surprised you can't see this.

michael sweet at 03:54 AM on 11 February 2019

A Green New Deal must not sabotage climate goals

Red Baron,

I have read many of your links in the past. While I do not claim to be an expert at land restoration, I am a professional nurseryman who works the land every day. (I have retired from teaching school and own a 5 acre nursery). I find your claims to be very lightly documented. Your first link here is to a blog post, the second is to press release about a 2002 paper and the third is to a 2008 article in a minor journal that is no longer published. The post I linked cited recent peer reviewed articles from prominent scientific journals.

It defies logic to think that soils could absorb all the carbon emitted by land use change, including lands that have been degraded so badly it will take generations to restore them, and all the carbon from fossil fuels. Substantial documentation is required. Blog posts and articles from 2002 are insufficient to convince me.

I do not like to harp on negative stories so most of the time I do not comment on your claims. That does not mean that I have been convinced, it means we have gone over this before and I do not feel the need to rehash an old argument (it is against the comments policy). In this case I had recently read what I thought was an informed comment on your topic, citing recent peer reviewed articles, and thought others might want to hear a different view.

While improved land use will certainly help the resolution of AGW, it is not a silver bullet that can remove all CO2 on its own. Fee and dividend to all citizens is a reasonable idea. Compension for possible sequestration of carbon by farmers is a separate issue.

One Planet Only Forever at 03:50 AM on 11 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

nigelj,

I share John McKeon's challenge of assertions that the environmental sustainability of human activity should be considered and acted upon separate from corrections to achieve social and economic sustainability.
That is not exactly how the issue is often described in comments here, or the general public discussion, but there is good reason for phrasing it that way.

The Green New Deal should be understood to be an update of the socioeconomic New Deal implemented by the Roosevelt Administration to correct the harmful developed results of the socioeconomic-political games that had been played. And a similar socioeconomic problem has redeveloped. As such, environmental sustainability can be understood to be appropriate to add to the required socioeconomic corrections of today. And the environmental corrections need to be done in a way to does not compromise efforts to correct the social problems that have developed.

The best understanding of the required corrections of what has developed and the governing objectives for new developments is the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). They are the latest developed understanding in a string of global collective efforts to understand what is required for the future of humanity (the history of development includes the decisions to form the UN which succeeded to establish the Universal Declaration of Human Rights - see more about this in my comment @35 on the SkS re-post of “A New Green Deal must not sabotage climate goals”).

The SDGs are a robustly established and indivisible compendium of Goals (Objectives) that must all be achieved and improved upon for humanity to have a better future. They include environmental, social, economic and political elements. I presented them in that order for Good Reason:

without a sustainable environment on this or any other planet there can be no sustainable society
without a sustainable environment and society there can be no sustainable economic activity
and a political system Tribe trying to win leadership is unsustainable if it does not develop and defend sustainable global environment, society and economic activity.

Tragically what can be seen to continue to be happening is the prolonging of, and temporary regional expansion of, Political Tribalism built on interests that are contrary to improving awareness and understanding and the application of that knowledge to achieve and improve on the SGDs. And the incorrect application of marketing science to produce misleading social, economic and political marketing is a major problem that needs to be corrected. And it will not be corrected by compromising the corrections that are understood to be required just to 'get along with people who are determined to not be corrected'.

The collaborative global effort to develop a sustainable better future for global humanity started after WWI with the League of Nations (and similar efforts were developing before that time to varying degrees but they lacked the true understanding of “Humanity as a robust diversity of humans living in ways that sustainably fit into a robust diversity of life” and “Global - we developed to live on a finite planet” the larger yet still small worldviews of the Renaissance and Enlightenment, and even the Reformation with its broadening of diversity of religious views and freeing people from unjustified Rule by unjustified Leaders can be seen as part of the efforts).

Even the more global efforts been tragically combative because of temporary regional winning by 'Tribal political groups with developed interests that are contrary to improved understanding and the application of that knowledge to develop a sustainable improving future of global humanity'. The combativeness and harmful failures are the result of the developed socioeconomic-political tribal groups that decide to focus on competing for impressions of superior status relative to others and fight to conserve those impressions. They even develop perceptions that Their Tribe is a victim because the required corrections will reduce their incorrectly developed perceptions of status relative to others.

I have recently been reading two books that highlight the need for everyone to have a more comprehensive and correct understanding of what is going on (there are many other books related to this, but I am reading these two right now). Common basis for discussion and debate is essential. And that common basis does not exist regarding discussions about the corrections that climate science has identified are required for humanity to have a future. The highest level common basis is required.

My developed understanding (open to improvement by Good Reasons) is:
The Universal (Highest level) Objective is:

Improving awareness and understanding and applying that constantly improving knowledge to develop a sustainable constantly improving future for humanity.
The understanding of the viable sustainable future for humanity is: A robust diversity of people sustainably fitting in to the robust diversity of life on this, and other, amazing planets.
Another way to understand the Universal Objective is from the perspective of Future Generations: What sustainably helps the future generations into the distant future?

The lack of progress in developing the required corrections and new developments is due to the success of people who strive to compromise the awareness and understanding in regional populations to incorrectly and harmfully develop 'Combative Tribes of fearful and angry people who are determined to oppose the improved understanding of required corrections and new developments - tribes that powerfully resist correcting developed things that undeniably need to be corrected'.

I have just started reading “I'm Right and Your an Idiot” by James Hogan, after finishing a book that comprehensively presents the case that socioeconomic-political systems can develop unjust and harmful results for “Others”. And system corrections often appear to be the only way to end the harmful actions. And those system corrections involve not allowing any In-Group to continue to be unaware of, or incorrectly understand, the perspectives of All Others, especially correcting In-groups that develop hatred for specific Out-groups (like bullies target their victims, rather than engaging with the entire population, and often believe they are the victims of actions of Others who try to correct them).

A related book is “The Opposite of Hate” by Sally Kohn. It is about the way that people you would consider to be decent and kind if you met them can be motivated by basic desire for inclusion and status to join 'In-groups with desires for status relative to Others' and become intensely combative and harmful to Others socially, economically and politically (yes, how the Nazi's in Germany got the population to do the horrific things they all participated in. But also how the horrors of Rwanda happened in a population that had been 'getting along fine with their diversity', and how it would be possible for the same to happen in any supposedly advanced nation today).

The book highlights the importance of Systemic Thinking or Holistic Thinking, seeing the larger picture, having a larger worldview. Her book presents the case that a history of systemic actions have developed In-groups among the current population with incorrect perceptions. Those incorrect In-groups fail to understand the harmful systemic history that developed the current situation. And they fail to consider the perspective of the Out-groups they have a developed disliking for (or just a lack of concern for, which can be just as harmful). They resist improving their awareness and understanding. They focus on defending and increasing the perceptions of self-image or Status of their In-group.

A larger worldview (consideration of all of humanity now and into the far future) is challenged by harmful people who encourage people to join them in an In-group that believes itself to be a victim when Others (not their in-group) try to correct the incorrect beliefs and perceptions of status relative to others that their In-group has unjustifiably developed.

That type of In-group does not care to improve its awareness and understanding of what is going on when that improved awareness would be contrary to their interests. They divisively polarize themselves away from that improved understanding. Those In-groups can develop a powerful dislike/hate for those not in their In-group. And they can get angrier if the facts of their incorrectness get pointed out. This can be seen to be happening regarding the need to rapidly curtail the burning of fossil fuels. The In-group of people who have developed incorrect perceptions of their status relative to others as a result of flaws in the socioeconomic-political systems want to maintain their developed undeserved perceptions of status.

There is an In-group that is undeniably correct. And it should 'correct Others'. The corrective actions will justifiably negatively affect developed perceptions of status of that group of Others. However, it can be expected that those corrective efforts will result in the 'Others that need to be corrected' perceiving themselves (their In-group) as being harmed by the corrective efforts. The undeniably harmful and incorrect In-group will easily develop a powerful incorrect belief that they are 'the victims'. And to maintain the perception that they are Victims, they deliberately resist improving their awareness and understanding. They deliberately do not want to understand the perspective of those correcting people who are clearly not in their In-group. They especially resent having it pointed out that their desired actions are harmful to the future of humanity (because they believe that the best future for humanity will develop if they are freer to believe what they want and do as they please - doing harm to Others while excusing the harm done any way they think they can get away with like claiming the unsustainable perceptions of wealth from burning fossil fuels will solve the future problems created by that unsustainable and harmful activity.).

From that perspective, the concern for the future of humanity, it is correct for the objectives to be clearly what is best for the future of humanity, achieving and improving on all of the Sustainable Development Goals, not compromising the future of humanity just because an In-group has developed interests that are harmful to the future of humanity.

RedBaron at 01:05 AM on 11 February 2019

A Green New Deal must not sabotage climate goals

@Michael Sweet #33

Thanks for the link. Yes I have seen these sorts of analysis before. Too often I see very obvious flaws in studies designed to minimize the perceived potential of this new paradigm.

Little Known Glomalin, a Key Protein in Soils

Glomalin, the Unsung Hero of Carbon Storage

Liquid carbon pathway unrecognised

But that might be obvious to me because it is well within my silo, but it often is not nearly so obvious to a climate scientist whose silo is physics.

For example. You look at a study and find that NPK fertilizers or biocides are used, then you know they haven't studied this new paradigm at all, but rather are studying the carbon sequestration potential of the old paradigm. That's well known, modeled by the Roth C model for climate scientists, and at least 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the liquid carbon pathway. Usually even a net loss! But with certain improvements can be a fairly tiny net gain. Still, no improvement can compare it to the LCP.

You would be well in your rights to ask why this is so obvious to me. That's because of the research done on the glomalin producing arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and inorganic chemical fertilizers.

Role of Mycorrhizal Symbioses in Phosphorus Cycling

You can see the plant AMF symbiosis trades carbon for phosphorus (and other nutrients too). This is what drives the LCP pumping vast quantities of carbon deep in the A and B horizons of the soil profile, rather that the Roth C which models the decay of biomass at the surface O horizon in the soil profile.

Soil Horizons

But there is more to it. Because once you add NPK fertilizers to the soil, this symbiosis becomes superfluous, and instead parasitic. Its a feedback mechanism.

Phosphorus and Nitrogen Regulate Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbiosis in Petunia hybrida

But we can turn it back on again too!

The Use of Mycorrhizae to Enhance Phosphorus Uptake: A Way Out the Phosphorus Crisis

As long as we use NPK fertilizers to supply plant nutrition, then we have shut down the LCP and instead sequester carbon 2 orders of magnitude slower! But if we instead use this new paradigm to supply plant nutrition, we activate the LCP and soil carbon rises on average rate of 5-20 tonnes CO2e /ha/yr!

John McKeon at 18:52 PM on 10 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Nigelj, I did write a long response to your latest, but on taking up your suggestions about reading the media link and checking past discussion, I am reminded that you are probably a US citizen whilst I am an Australian equivalent. So my response needed to be held back or modified a lot, because I have only a sketchy feel for political culture in your country. But I did have a question which is worth forwarding to you now:

"... a carbon fee and dividend ..."

Would you classify this as an instrument of environment policy or of socio-economic policy? Or both?

nigelj at 14:30 PM on 10 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

Meant to say "clearly the economic system relies on the environment for its survival and the economy can influence the environment.....

nigelj at 14:26 PM on 10 February 2019

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #6

John McKeon

Thank's for your views. There has already been a lot of discussion on these issues here.

"How can you separate environmental goals from socio-economic goals?"

I feel they are just different things entirely. It's virtually self evident. Governments have entirely different departments dealing with these things. They are only part of some integrated whole to the same extent that the justice system, and education system are.

These are the socioeconomic objectives I referred to in The Green New Deal in clause 15: " providing all people of the United States with—(i) high-quality health care; (ii) affordable, safe, and adequate housing; (iii) economic security". The body of the text also referred to minium wages.

Now come on, the connection between these socioeconomic goals and green objectives (environmental objectives) is pretty tenuous. They are of course sensible goals, and imho the government has at least some part to play, but that is another thing that could be handled separately.

"For me the word "Green" as a political designation has always been about the integrated system that our only planet represents to us. Our human economy and political systems are a part of that whole."

Clearly the economic system relies on the economy for its survival and the economy can influence the environment, so the economy has to be based on sound and sustainable principles. However the Green New Deal didn't actually reference that signifciantly and instead drifted off into talk about miniumum wages and affordable housing. These are separate concerns surely, and 'socio'economic goals, so a different thing from economic policy as such. The distinction is important.

"Political resistance to Green politics comes from working people who naturally are fearful of loosing their jobs,"

Yes, but not only this. Conservatives may have some resistance to ideas about the state being expected to provide quality affordable healthcare (read universal), affordable housing and economic security and so on. Tying this to the climate change objectives may lead to opposition to the climate change objectives, and the package as a whole. I don't like that it would, and I like grand plans, but I'm also a realist.

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