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ab at 18:23 PM on 21 May 2018Measuring Earth's energy imbalance
The very first sentence of the post is wrong: "When the Earth is in energy imbalance, with more energy coming in than radiating back out into space, we experience global warming."
Earth is not the moon. On Earth, life transforms incoming solar energy into biochemical energy. So there has to be a radiative imbalance in order for life to develop and sustain itself.
Moderator Response:[DB] Thank you for taking the time to share with us. Skeptical Science is a user forum wherein the science of climate change can be discussed from the standpoint of the science itself. Ideology and politics get checked at the keyboard. When making assertions running counter to accepted science, it is incumbent upon the user (you) to furnish citations to credible sources that support your contentions.
Please take the time to review the Comments Policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
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Riduna at 09:58 AM on 21 May 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
Mean global warming could exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial temperature with a decade and it is becoming increasingly likely that it will exceed 2°C by 2100. As implied by the article, this is likely to pose serious problems for ability of the human population to produce the food needed to sustain itself.
This will be the outcome if temperature increase adversely effects the ability of insect pollinators to survive. Without them it will be impossible to maintain the present, let alone an increased quantity of agricultural production needed to feed a growing global human population.
However, the prospect of mass starvation seems unlikely to result in more rapid efforts at decarbonising the economy – unless widespread financial gain is to be had from doing so.
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michael sweet at 09:02 AM on 21 May 2018Global solar capacity grew faster than fossil fuels in 2017, says report
John ONeil,
Actual generation is shown in the second graph of the OP. Last year renewables (excluding hydro) generated 12.1% of global electricity. Renewables generated only 6.1% in 2010 so the amount of renewables has doubled in the past 7 years.
Renewables have only been cheaper than fossil fuels for less than 7 years so one would expect renewables to obtain market share faster in the future since they are the cheapest energy today.
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nigelj at 06:06 AM on 21 May 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #20
Regarding water resources: NASA Satellites Reveal Major Shifts in Global Freshwater
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John ONeill at 23:15 PM on 20 May 2018Global solar capacity grew faster than fossil fuels in 2017, says report
Actual generation is a better metric than capacity or investment, since coal and gas usually have higher capacity factors than wind and solar, and lower installation costs.
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shepard145 at 13:12 PM on 20 May 2018CO2 is just a trace gas
The discussions on this page are disappointing - childish word games. The only question that matters is: "does throttling a trace gas CO2 result in human control of the climate and weather." - a global thermostat. The answer is “no”, so the entire global warming fraud and everything about it is irrelevant – including solar /wind power and electric cars and all the green marketing. None of it is relevant. Unfortunately this post was too late to save the 100,000 US coal minors who lost thier jobs.
Moderator Response:[TD] Provide a peer reviewed reference for your unsourced assertion that 100,000 coal miners were illegally underage.
[PS] This post is nothing but sloganeering. This is a science-based site. You must provide supporting evidence preferably from peer reviewed literature to back your comment. Opinions based on your preference or political leaning have no place here. You may find rants like this more welcome on sites like WUWT.
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teacher at 12:40 PM on 20 May 2018Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate
Thanks for taking the time to respond and to give me advice everyone. I definitely have a more detailed lesson plan and more graphs for students to analyze.
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nigelj at 07:08 AM on 20 May 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #20
A little more detail on the decline in insect numbers according to research discussed here.
"The number of flying insects had plunged by three-quarters in the past 25 years in Germany and very likely elsewhere." “We know that many insects are in rapid decline due to factors such as habitat loss and intensive farming methods,” ......in the future, these declines would be hugely accelerated by the impacts of climate change, under realistic climate projections."
A decline of three quarters is more than I was expecting, and is quite astonishing. This must impact the entire ecosystem, and pollination of plants and the number of birds. Sure enough it does in this article . The scale of change is pretty astonishing.
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scaddenp at 14:01 PM on 19 May 2018Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate
Hmm. The extremely tricky bit is how are 7th graders going to evaluate the reliability of source information? With so much misinformation, misrepresentation of science, and downright false information out there from motivated reasoners, it is a minefield to navigate. Even limiting to "peer reviewed" research is complicated by predatory journals. This website delivers good guidelines but 7th graders just dont have those skills. For that matter, many gradutes dont have/use those skills. Everyone of us is prone to motivated reasoning.
To my mind, what 7th graders need to know is what the scientific consensus is.
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Eclectic at 11:49 AM on 19 May 2018Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate
Teacher @23 ,
a further small point which might be of interest to American students :-
the once-marvellous Glacier National Park is nowadays sadly depleted compared with its former condition. By the end of the century, the Park will need to change its name to something entirely different, it seems.
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Eclectic at 11:42 AM on 19 May 2018Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate
Teacher @23 ,
it is important, indeed essential, for students to see the OHC [Ocean Heat Content] graph showing the accumulating heating of the planetary ocean. The ongoing warming of the ocean (which absorbs over 90% of the accumulating heating caused by the higher levels of greenhouse gasses) is a matter which demonstrates the falsity of the various "Con" arguments listed at the ProCon website. Add to that, the melting of permafrost and the rapid decline of the planet's glaciers, the loss of Greenland land-ice, etcetera etcetera.
I appreciate that the ProCon website is obliged to present a list of "Con" arguments — but really, all those Con arguments are not-at-all science-type arguments but are almost entirely lawyer-style arguments (presenting deliberately misleading & cherry-picked points — and many of them self-contradictory and lacking in probity. Many are also ludicrous : e.g. note the comment: <the recent global warming period of the 20th century is the result of a natural 21-year temperature oscillation, and will give way to a new 'cool period in the 2030's. '>
Presumably such nonsenses serve as discussion points for teachers to present for students' consideration . . . but I would have thought that the teaching curriculum would be so crowded, as to preclude much time being allotted to the study of scientifically-fake statements. To me, it seems unfair that teachers should have to develop a considerable depth of climate-science understanding, in order to be able to rebut all the nonsense. "ProCon" ought to present only valid Pro arguments and only valid Con arguments. Which would leave a greatly-reduced Con list indeed!! All the first 12 Con points would disappear, and just Argument #13 would remain — and #13 is exceedingly weak, because Global Warming is merely in the early stage so far.
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jef12506 at 11:23 AM on 19 May 2018New research, May 7-13, 2018
It occures to me after perusing several weeks of research roundups that the "uncertaintity" around climate science is predominantly on the side of uncertain about how and/or why things are getting worse in almost every area of study.
I understand that this is normal wrt the scientific principal but it is consistantly used as a reason for doubt.
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michael sweet at 10:44 AM on 19 May 2018Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate
Teacher:
I am not impressed with procon.org. They treat conclusions made by tens of thousands of scientists as equal to the opinion of a single person who is paid to speak by the fossil fuel industry. The data shows that over 95% of scientists who study climate are convinced humans cause climate change. If you present equal amounts of scientific arguments with con arguments that are fake you will convince your students that a debate exists when there is none. The students will not be able to identify the fake con arguments.
In 1965 President Johnson asked the National Academy of Science, the top science organization in the USA, if Golbal Warming was really a potential problem. They replied that it would be a big problem in the near future. That future is now. The conclusion had been made already in 1965. Pro/con is confusing the public, your students, by acting like there is a debate when none exists. That is the entire point of deniers: to act like there is no scientific conclusion.
Check the sources of all the con arguments. 15 scientists here (how many were really climate scientists, or were they computer scientists?), a single article published in an obscure Chinese journal there, a retired physicist who has never studied climate is quoted as if he was an expert. This is posted as equal to the IPCC report that thousands of experts wrote and every government in the world, including the USA, agreed was the actual state of the science.
Pro/con needs to screen their arguments. They are claiming that 10=15,000. They give equal weight to the IPCC, which has thousands of experts from the entire world, and the Heartland institute, which is a fossil fuel funded organization with less than 10 climate scientists.
In my class I found that graphs of data were best accepted by students. They tended to disbelieve any written material regardless of the source. Be careful to get your graphs from reliable sources.
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michael sweet at 10:06 AM on 19 May 2018Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate
Teacher:
As far as evidence of human influence, see the graph Sir Charles posted here. How can you look at the wheelchair graph, which clearly shows the natural influence for the past 5,000 years was cooling, and not see clear human influence? The natural change has been cooling for thousands of years, all heating is due to human influence.
The Skeptical Science Graphics page here has a lot of good graphs (no copy of the wheelchair). The obvious changes in many happening around 1880 demonstrate clear human influence.
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michael sweet at 09:52 AM on 19 May 2018Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate
Teacher:
The National Climate Data Center has an excellent web page. I used it in class (10th grade). I read the selection and then wrote questions on the things I thought most important for the students to read. The 2017 Global annual report is here. 7th graders could read the list of hot years and other graphs. Have students click on the Temperature Anomolies Time series annual at the very top to see the red graph (deniers complained so the graph was removed from the main report). Ask if the graph shows temperatures increasing or decreasing (no statistics needed).
The report for the USA only is here. I like to look at the seasonal graphs (at the bottom of the page) and ask the students if they see more red/orange or more blue (red is hot and blue is cold). A statistical analysis is not needed to determine there is much more red. You can just look at your state if you wish. The regional summaries are also good to read but may be hard for your students.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center has a good web page. The yearly summary is at the end of the January 2018 page here. Read the page first (it is too long for 7th graders) and then assign what you like (I really like the graphs). The October report here has good discussion of the minimum sea ice level and some interesting graphs. The sea ice maximum is generally in March but is not usually as interesting.
Good luck. Post again if those are too hard to read or not what you want.
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teacher at 06:59 AM on 19 May 2018Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate
I am a teacher and one of my objectives is to
- engage in scientific arguement based on current evidence to determine whether climate change happens naturally or is being accelerated by the influyence of man.
- read and evaluate scientific or technical information assessing the evidence and bias of each source to explain the causes and effects of climate change.
I need some help on what type of information to provide 7th graders to read and come to a conclusion on their own. I have printed some information from procon.org. Are there any other websites or information(7th grade reading ability) which I can share with them. I am staying away from indoctrination and trying to let them read and conclude through graphs and facts. Any advice?
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sauerj at 00:00 AM on 19 May 2018Global solar capacity grew faster than fossil fuels in 2017, says report
As long as FF total consumption is still climbing (as 1st chart shows), and hasn't dropped into 'negative' territory, then it is hard to get excited (hopeful) at all. ... In addition, this article is only about electricity; I would guess that, if looking at total energy consumption, that % of net gain of renewables compared to FF is less than given here; and that the increase of FF consumption is proportionally more so compared to electricity only energy.
Until macro-based economic policies get installed (the most effective being 100% rev-neutral CFD w/ a steep tax rate), the chances of avoiding an ever continuous climb in temperatures is hopeless, affirmed w/ news like this showing FF consumption only continuing to increase. -
nigelj at 15:47 PM on 18 May 2018Global solar capacity grew faster than fossil fuels in 2017, says report
R Murphy, it appears you may be mistaking the package for a home instillation which would need a lot of capital. I said its specifically to replace old coal fired power stations due for replacement, as did the article. So obviously it doesnt require more capital than for a new coal fired power station.
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nigelj at 15:42 PM on 18 May 2018Global solar capacity grew faster than fossil fuels in 2017, says report
R murphy, the costs in the article I posted for renewable enery plus storage are claimed to be more affordable than coal. Therefore the upfront capital is less than required for coal.
Where is your fact based, verifiable evidence that the claims are false? So far you haven't provided anything apart from stupid comments.
Moderator Response:[DB] Keep it clean
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r murphy at 14:17 PM on 18 May 2018Global solar capacity grew faster than fossil fuels in 2017, says report
Nige if you have discovered the holy grail of cheap energy why don't you avail yourself of it and give us a post about all the money you are saving? What? you don't have the heavy upfront capital to get in the cheap energy game....how then is that affordable? Somebody is telling tales here.
Moderator Response:[DB] Intimations of impropriety are proscribed by the Comments Policy here.
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nigelj at 07:07 AM on 18 May 2018Video: The Myth of the Mini Ice Age
According to little ice age on wikipedia, scientists are not entirely sure what caused the little ice age, and it has been linked to the solar cycle, an unusually extended period of volcanic activity and ocean processes. Maybe its some combination. However the point is making predictions of even a slight cooling influence is absurd.
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nigelj at 06:56 AM on 18 May 2018Global solar capacity grew faster than fossil fuels in 2017, says report
This related article is interesting: "Plunging costs make solar, wind and battery storage cheaper than coal"
Briefly the article is about solar, wind and battery storage provided as a package to replace single aging coal fired power stations in Colorado State America. The total package costs are cheaper than coal and the package solves the intermittency problems by using storage.
It would seem to be a viable system that has affordable storage, so I'm mystified why people claim such things aren't possible yet. I'm not sure how the economics stand up if its scaled up or if theres some "fishook" in the scheme, but none are obvious in the text.
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SirCharles at 02:38 AM on 18 May 2018Video: The Myth of the Mini Ice Age
Some "imminent ice age" indeed...
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cready at 00:21 AM on 18 May 2018Video: The Myth of the Mini Ice Age
Thanks for posting this. After years of claiming that the Sun is responsible for global warming, now the climate denial industry are claiming the opposite. This isn't moving the goal posts so much as reversing their location.
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Lexaray at 22:17 PM on 17 May 2018How much does animal agriculture and eating meat contribute to global warming?
How can you claim that deforestation contributes more to global warming than animal agriculture when cattle ranching alone is the main cause of deforestation???? Am I crazy for thinking that that's a blindlingly embarrassing flaw to this post???
https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/deforestation
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Daniel Bailey at 08:48 AM on 17 May 2018California, battered by global warming’s weather whiplash, is fighting to stop it
Windows 10 and Chrome here. Works fine.
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newairly at 21:03 PM on 16 May 2018California, battered by global warming’s weather whiplash, is fighting to stop it
Not working Win XP and latest Firefox.
Only shows part of this article summary after the first on the home page.
California, battered by global warming’s weather whiplash, is fighting to stop it
Posted on 14 May 2018 by dana1981 -
scaddenp at 10:53 AM on 16 May 2018California, battered by global warming’s weather whiplash, is fighting to stop it
Works on WIn7 too. Odd.
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nigelj at 07:50 AM on 16 May 2018California, battered by global warming’s weather whiplash, is fighting to stop it
Scaddenp, it's the home page not working for me, as it only displays one article and half of next article, in chrome and firefox windows 10. Individual articles work fine. Other websites are fine.
However the home page works ok on chrome and firefox on windows 8.1 (my old computer) and the android phone.
It looks like a compatability issue that's developed between windows 10 and chrome / firefox, and this website, but I'm useless with tech and I'm just guessing.
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scaddenp at 07:17 AM on 16 May 2018California, battered by global warming’s weather whiplash, is fighting to stop it
Hmm. Working for me in FF and Chrome. Got a "Click here to read the rest" in green box at bottom of article. Do you not see green box, or is the link not working?
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nigelj at 06:09 AM on 16 May 2018California, battered by global warming’s weather whiplash, is fighting to stop it
I'm having the same problem as ianw01, google chrome and also firefox on windows 10.
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knaugle at 03:25 AM on 16 May 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #19
#1
Well considering the scene is from Titanic?
I guess they weren't worrying either. -
ianw01 at 23:14 PM on 15 May 2018California, battered by global warming’s weather whiplash, is fighting to stop it
"In what way?" It only shows the "tease" for one article, without even a link at the end to the whole post.
Moderator Response:[DB] Working normally for me, in Chrome
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Riduna at 08:16 AM on 15 May 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #19
In their 2011 Paper, Schuur and Abbott concluded that no more than 2.7% of greenhouse gasses emitted by melting of permafrost would be in the form of CH4, with 93.3% of CH4 being oxidised and emitted as CO2. This widely accepted view ignored the fact that when the top 2-3 metres of permafrost degrades, much of the land is covered in water due to poor drainage. This inhibits oxidation of CH4 since methanotrophic bacteria responsible for this process cannot function in anoxic conditions normally found in waterlogged land.
It should be expected that CH4 emissions from permafrost degredation, both onshore and from the submerged continental shelf bordering the Arctic Ocean, will therefore be very much higher and its oxidation in the atmosphere very much slower due to depletion of hydroxil (H1O) radicals essential for this process. Hydroxil radicals are derived from ozone and their depletion is due in part to anthropogenic effects on the zone layer and on CH4 emissions exceeding the rate of hydroxil formation.
The likely outcome is that global warming will produce significantly increasing CH4 emissions beyond human control (unlike farming and industrial emissions) and well beyond the capacity of hyroxils to oxidise. The result will be that the lifespan of CH4 in the atmosphere, now 10-12 years, will increase – as will its contribution to global warming, further degrading permafrost and releasing even greater quantities of CH4 to the atmosphere. CH4 emissions from permafrost will become an increasingly serious problem.
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nigelj at 06:49 AM on 15 May 2018California, battered by global warming’s weather whiplash, is fighting to stop it
Your home page isn't working properly.
It's interesting that Arnold Schwarzenegger is a Republican and has promoted an effective cap and trade scheme, and top marks to him. Must have taken some courage. However it suggests a supportive and enlightened business sector.
If only people elsewhere could put their vested interests, short term concerns and ideologies aside and look at the data for California. Really look, and understand it and how positive it all is.
Moderator Response:[DB] "Your home page isn't working properly"
In what way?
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Kiwiiano at 06:32 AM on 15 May 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #19
Not sure about "We don't have to worry about icebergs...." If the melting Greenland icecap lubricates the undersides of the various glaciers we could yet see an outbreak of more than usual numbers of icebergs. Just in time for the increased numbers of oil tankers taking advantage of the ice-free Arctic Ocean..... ;^(
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nigelj at 10:29 AM on 13 May 20182018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #19
Related research. Scientists struggle to explain a worrying rise in atmospheric methane
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jef12506 at 22:50 PM on 12 May 2018New research, April 30 - May 6, 2018
Thank you SkS for putting together these studies in one place.
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michael sweet at 20:36 PM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
Nigelj@9:
I agree with your point. Unfortunately, the carbon dioxide being released today has a much longer lifetime in the atmosphere than you think. From the Guardian:
"The rest is removed by slower processes that take up to several hundreds of thousands of years, including chemical weathering and rock formation. This means that once in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide can continue to affect climate for thousands of years." my emphasis.
The next ice age has been delayed by at least tens of thousands of years by the carbon already in the atmosphere.
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Evan at 14:31 PM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
nigelj@11
Good points. We have a lot in common. I think that what sets humans apart from other animals is altuism.
Clearly we need more of it.
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nigelj at 14:14 PM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
Evan @10, I feel much the same way, and ask myself similar questions. In fact its very difficult for an individual to find answers to such difficult questions, so dont stress too much.
I think we have three key problems of climate change, environmental pressures generally, and growing danger of resource scarcity, and they strongly interrelate, but knowing the appropriate individual response is hard, and not even the experts can say with any certainty. However we do definitely know we need to obviously adopt renewable energy and consume a lot less resources per capita. In other words own less stuff. Of course its easy to pontificate on the right thing and harder to do, but that doesn't make it any less the right thing.
The issue is that humans are by nature status seeking and this is expressed through our materialism, the very thing we are now being expected to consciously scale back on. Its a huge "conflict of interest" so quite challenging, particularly as individuals are reluctant to make sacrifices unless everyone does.
However I think there's also a growing sense that materialism has a strict law of steeply diminishing returns in terms of happiness. I'm not an advocate for simple hair shirt lifestyles, however there's possibly a sweet spot of consumerism in the middle somewhere that is sustainable long term.
And perhaps rather than trying to formulate precise plans in terms of personal consumption or make radical immediate changes, its better to just get things pointing in the right general direction. Taking the first step is the hardest.
Humans are also selfish in varying degrees, but this is made complicated by the fact that some level of selfishness is not an inherently a bad thing because without it we would not surivive long. However we are clearly not entirely selfish. We are genetically wired with strong altruistic instincts as well. Many of us seem to be conscious that altruism is important, helping others is important, and acceptance of others is important, and its not just instinctive because there are obvious practical benefits from this. I tend to think right now humanity needs to concentrate on altruism, and international cooperation, and any nationalism needs to be restrained and strictly evidence based.
We are also genetically primed for loyalty to our immediate group and distrustful of other groups according to research. So expecting people to consider future distant generations of people not in our group is hard work. Yet again its clear from history that humans have risen above narrow and self defeating fears of other people.
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Evan at 12:45 PM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
nigelj@9
Agree. But knowledge does not equate to action. Yes, with smoking it is more insidious because there is a chemical dependency.
The insidious problem for us, is that even as I write this, and even as I present myself as a person interested in changing my behavior, I have normalized such excess in my life as an American, that it is difficult for me to even determine what a proper lifestyle is that is consistent with how we need to be responding. I am serious about changing, but wonder if I have the courage to act on my convictions ... assuming I knew in the first place what constituted an appropriate response.
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nigelj at 12:38 PM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
A news article a couple of nights ago discussed research finding children of smokers had nicotene levels in their bodies that in many cases were the same as their parents, through passive smoking. So it appears to me these children are probably already partly addicted, and are going to be highly predisposed to want to try smoking cigarettes. So smoking has more significant effects on others than we realised.
However climate change is expected to keep atmospheric CO2 levels significantly elevated for about 1000 years I recall according to the IPCC, so this is effecting what, about 300 generations or so.
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Evan at 12:29 PM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
OPOF@7
I agree with what you are saying. Completely agree. But if people don't stop behavior that harms themselves, they are less likely to stop behavior that harms others. It is the nature of the selfish people we are. We usually will not make a decision that will make us feel less comfortable. This is why Al Gore's film "An Inconvenient Truth" is a brilliant title. If global warming and climate change are natural, then we can continue to pray for the poor, helpless people suffering overseas. But if we accept that it is our emissions causing the problems, then we are faced with the inconvenient truth that we must change our lifestyles.
National polls often cite that 50% or so of people accept that GW and CC are real and that fossil-fuel emissions are the problem. But what percentage of the people you know are changing their lifestyle to account for that reality? I can count the number of people I know changing their lives on one hand or maybe two. We should care about others, but considering that half of American voted for a nationalistic president, to me it seems the message is clear that in the end we will take care of ourselves and, at best, pray for the others. I don't mean to criticize Christians. I am a Christian. But I don't see a very Christian response to this problem, because sacrificing for the sake of others is a tough thing to do.
People will barely sacrifice for their own good, much less the good of others.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:01 PM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
Evan@6,
I am well aware and agree.
A major difference between tobacco and fossil fuels is that the burning of fossil fuels creates accumulating future harm to Others.
Negative impacts of smoking have mainly been limited to the people lured into doing it. Burning fossil fuels harms Others.
Doing harm to Others makes an action even less acceptable than doing harm to one's self. So, hopefully that understanding can speed up the correction of what has developed, leading others, particularly the genuinely caring and deserving among the wealthy, to act more aggressively to protect humanity from the damaging sub-set of the population, particularly against the interests of the damaging undeserving wealthy ones.
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Evan at 11:24 AM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
OPOF@5
By the 1940's we already knew that smoking caused cancer, but it took until the 1990's to enact meaningful legislation in the US. And 15% of Americans still smoke. This is a problem that does not have distant impacts, but impacts within ones lifetime, and for which each person probably has known somebody who has suffered ill effects of tobacco use. Yet the problem goes on.
Breaking habits is indeed difficult, even if we know the ill effects to our health. Breaking the fossil-fuel habit, where the impacts are distant (or at least perceived to be distant), will be really, really tough.
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nigelj at 09:00 AM on 12 May 2018New research, April 30 - May 6, 2018
A couple of interesting things: Alien Waters: Neighboring Seas Are Flowing into a Warming Arctic Ocean - the “Atlantification” and “Pacification” of the Arctic has begun.
New research related to Hurricane Harvey: Record-breaking ocean heat fueled Hurricane Harvey
The research "Teaching environmental policy in an era of polarization and misrepresentation" appears well founded, and is astonishing to me because its politely saying the leadership in America is rotten to the core as far as the environment is concerned. It just seems astonishing because research is normally not quite so direct in its findings related to leadership of society. People need to be paying attention to this sort of research and what its saying.
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One Planet Only Forever at 07:58 AM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
nigelj,
Thanks for the link. It is likely that the USA and Australia have seen what is "called or claimed to be Conservative" most radically distorted in their nations. A similar thing has happened in Canada, particularly in Alberta.
However, the study seemed to fail to correct for the fact that 2 the 4 conspiracy events are clearly USA centered, the New World Order bit is highly USA centered because the New World Order would knock the USA from global dominance, leaving the adoration of a non-USA celebrity to be less USA centered, but the USA is likely the most Celebrity focused nation.
I think that resistance to climate science is not a 'fear of increased government intervention'. It is more likely because accepting climate science exposes that unacceptable unsustainable activity has developed and needs to be rapidly corrected. And relying on people freely doing what they want in competition for popularity and profitability won't solve the problem. And the deniers sense their loss if they admit to the unacceptability of trying to benefit from the burning of fossil fuels. The bigger threat is to their cherished vested/private interest in being able to personally benefit as much as they can in their lifetime.
A key aspect is the way people can believe they personally will not experience a net-negative result in their lifetime. The lack of concern beyond their local interest during their near future is a serious problem, bringing up one of my favourite warnings from John Stuart Mill in "On Liberty": “If society lets a considerable number of its members grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives, society has itself to blame for the consequences.”, where distant motives are considerations beyond personal local short-term interests.
It is indeed complex. A simple slogan for the answer could be something like: "Act Local Now to Help Develop a Sustainable Global Future". But the key is developing a consistent detailed understanding of the objective, and brevity fails to do that. "Be Best" is a great example of that.
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nigelj at 06:37 AM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
OPOF, this article discusses new and significant published research related to reasons for climate denial, and how vested interests and particularly conservative politics fit into the picture. It certainly supports some of what you say.
According to the article, denial of the science is more related to vested interests, with conservative politics being a secondary factor. However the notable point is climate science denial by conservatives seems unique to America and Australia, and is much less evident elsewhere, and they explain why.
However the research does not explore mitigation. Personally I think you would find more conservative resistance to things like carbon taxes. The whole thing is rather complex I'm afraid.
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:32 AM on 12 May 2018Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C?
Climate science has developed the emergent truth that the unsustainable pursuit of temporary benefit through the burning of non-renewable fossil fuels creates negative future consequences for humanity. It is highly unlikely that further development of climate science will significantly alter that understanding. And further development of climate science, and the corrections of developed human activity that are required for humanity to have a better future, is essential to the future of humanity.
I am still working on a comment to the final OP of the 3 Part - "Climate Science Denial Explained". This comment includes my thoughts regarding the motivations for the development of climate science denial.
Sean Carroll's "The Big Picture" presents a comprehensive understanding of how the environment people grow up in can develop the type of people they become, develop their character and ways of thinking. It also makes it clear that the starting point for everything is the current moment that has developed as a result of everything that happened prior to the current moment. And it makes it clear that the future has a diversity of possibilities that will be the result of the chosen actions of every living thing that makes choices, constrained only by what has developed up to the current moment and the fundamental physical realities of the universe we developed in and inhabit.
People can change their minds, but the environment people experience can lead them to develop strong interests/desires causing them to prefer to not change their minds; preferring to maintain what has developed that they personally perceive a personal comfort/benefit from; and attempting to change the system further in their favour.
It is obvious that the lack of responsible correction of harmful unsustainable human development in the past, especially deliberate resistance to increasing the proper understanding of the issue in the general public, has created undeniable harmful consequences for future generations (today's bigger climate change challenge), consequences that are continuing to become bigger/worse.
Some still try to claim that the perceptions/evaluations of wealth today will naturally continue to grow into the future if more people are freer to believe what they want and do as they please (the fantasy that good results will be produced by a less regulated free-for-all society/marketplace).
The reality is that only truly sustainable socioeconomic development has any chance of continuing to have value into the future. And it cannot grow endlessly. It can only be improved by the development of even better truly sustainable activity, the quicker the better for the future in spite of perceived losses by some people today.
The undeniable truth is that the moral/ethical obligation is for all of the most fortunate to lead the rapid increase of awareness and understanding of the corrections required for the future of humanity and lead by example (discrediting and correcting 'legal developments' when developed Laws and their enforcement are unethical/harmful, including exposing the awareness of unethical legal developments by disobeying through 'civil disobedience').
Any of the richest or winners of positions of power who fail to act that way clearly need to be corrected rather than being excused, just like any other trouble-maker in society or business needs external help/motivation to become better educated, changing their mind to behave better, and having reduced influence in the socioeconomic system until they prove they deserve to be winner/leaders.
This is a common sense ethical matter. But developing common sense ethics can be hard for people who have a powerful personal interest/desire that would have to be given up if they were more ethically sensible/responsible. And the developed socioeconomic systems that such people develop in are the real problem needing correction.
It is moral/ethical common sense that the current generation owes the future generations a maximum impact of 1.5C increase. That means the richest today paying for CO2 reduction (none of them should make a penny from the ventures), with the distribution of cost among the richest being determined by peer review of who should be obliged to pay more, who was a bigger trouble-maker. That is what is required.
The developed socioeconomic political systems that resulted in the development of that problem cannot be expected to produce the correction, especially not by allowing more freedom for people to do whatever they want. And the correction requires the richest to have the least freedom, the most responsibility, be investigated/evaluated most intensely to a higher standard of behaviour.
That developed problem can be expected to get harder to correct the longer the developed socioeconomic-political system is allowed to defend, perpetuate and expand the unacceptable things it has developed.
Developing a sustainable solution to that problem is essential to the future of humanity, and the more rapidly it is developed the better the future will be.
Climate science has unintentionally become one of the most significant fronts in the socioeconomic-political struggle to develop a sustainable better future for humanity, a struggle to correct incorrect developments that have developed powerful defences, particularly through regionally temporarily successful misleading marketing appeals to developed temptations for more potential personal benefit rather than desiring to be more helpful to others and the future of humanity.
A note about religious and conservative people that will be part of my comment on "Climate Science Denial Explained: The Denial Personality". Being fundamentally religious or conservative is not what make a person less likely to accept climate science. Religious and conservative people can appreciate the importance of protecting the development of a better future for all of humanity. The problem is people who choose to claim to be religious or conservative (or liberal or atheist) to defend or excuse a developed personal interest in maintaining an otherwise understandably unsustainable and harmful developed way of living and treating others. That harmful desire is a choice. Not every religious or conservative person will choose to think that way. And it is unhelpful to refer to being Conservative or Religious as a problem. Conservatives and religious people can be helpful. The problem is the way that unhelpful people can claim to be Conservative or Religious as an excuse for being harmful. And some people will claim to be Liberal or Atheist to excuse being unhelpful (that is less likely to be the case, but it can still happen).
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