Arguments
Recent Comments
Prev 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793 794 795 796 797 Next
Comments 39451 to 39500:
-
jja at 01:00 AM on 6 February 2014Warming oceans consistent with rising sea level & global energy imbalance
Tom@57
decade Energy
1 0.0933
2 0.2177
3 0.5907
4 1.2123
5 2.0825
6 3.2013
7 4.5687 -
Vonnegut at 00:49 AM on 6 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
@92 Tom "Vonnegut @91, Fortunately, a crashing economy and potentially a crashing global civilization will effectively our further emissions of CO2 long before that. So, almost certainly, will a limited supply of fossil fuels. Consequently, the question is not if we will stop emitting CO2, but when - and how much damage we will do to ourselves and the environment in the meantime."
My sentiments entirely , mother nature always wins in the long term.
Specifically, you have scoured the internet for one or two quotes from coral experts that indicate OA may not be totally disasterous (at least by itself). In the meantime you are ignoring far more quotes from coral scientists that indicate that OA plus SST increase by themselves may be enough to destroy the worlds major reefs. Some scientists put that possibility at 50/50 by 2050. As neither you (nor I) are experts, we have no basis to ignore any actual experts within the range of opinion. By formulating your opinions on only the more upbeat reports, you are biasing them so that they do not correspond with what the totallity of observations and analysis are showing.How do you know Im ignoring other views? Im just looking at the other side of the coin.I dont rest easy knowing the oceans are polluted more each day or knowing that 'global warming did it' is being used as a get out clause and diverting money and resources away from fixing the obvious.
You say Ive scoured the internet for a few quotes, Im surprised how many coral positive reports there are from more than 2 places on the planet. Coral wont be missing off the planet anytime soon because of warming, some will, some wont. I can and have backed that up with links I can do it again if needed.
-
michael sweet at 00:39 AM on 6 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Vonnegut:
At post 61 you claim that it is difficult to find scientific data about survival of species in high CO2 situation. That is exactly what everyone here is trying to tell you. We know that it is possible to search the scientific literature and find exceptional animals or plants that will survive under increased temperatures. The fact that you claim that you have to search many papers to find one that supports your argument that CO2 is not bad shows that most outcomes will be bad. If you have to search many papers to find one that supports your claim indicates that the claim is incorrect.
Think through what you have said. The fact that most papers say ecosystems will have difficulty surviving AGW indicates that is the most common result . Scientists publish everything they find. They do not look for the exceptional ecosystems that are not going to survive, they show what will happen to all ecosystems. A few will do fine for a while, but that will not do the rest any good.
-
Tom Curtis at 00:31 AM on 6 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Vonnegut @91, if we are "...never going to stop producing co2..." then we are going to kill ourselves of as a species. It is that simple. Fortunately, a crashing economy and potentially a crashing global civilization will effectively our further emissions of CO2 long before that. So, almost certainly, will a limited supply of fossil fuels. Consequently, the question is not if we will stop emitting CO2, but when - and how much damage we will do to ourselves and the environment in the meantime.
If you begin on the assumption that we will not stop emitting CO2, and look only for the evidence that might suggest that could be OK in the short term, you will get a very distorted view of the science. Instead of trying to understand, you will have been merely trying to find a security blanket for your pre-established belief. There have been a lot of signs that that is indeed what you are doing.
Specifically, you have scoured the internet for one or two quotes from coral experts that indicate OA may not be totally disasterous (at least by itself). In the meantime you are ignoring far more quotes from coral scientists that indicate that OA plus SST increase by themselves may be enough to destroy the worlds major reefs. Some scientists put that possibility at 50/50 by 2050. As neither you (nor I) are experts, we have no basis to ignore any actual experts within the range of opinion. By formulating your opinions on only the more upbeat reports, you are biasing them so that they do not correspond with what the totallity of observations and analysis are showing.
-
Warming oceans consistent with rising sea level & global energy imbalance
Chriskoz#54
I understand that warming of the atmosphere will increase heat loss to space and therefore decrease the energy imbalance & heat accumulation in the climate system as a whole.
My point was that if the atmospheric warming still was 0.2oC/decade, this would produce an energy imbalance of only 0.006 W/m2, or about 1% of the energy imbalance in the rest of the climate system if that had continued to warm at its present rate.
-
chriskoz at 23:57 PM on 5 February 2014Corrections to Curry's Erroneous Comments on Ocean Heating
mgardner@18,
I found these slides (Lecture on Thermohaline circulation (THC) with several pictures that maybe of interest to you. For example:
Page 5 'simpleton' overview
Page7 explanation of circumpolar currents and gyres
Pages 16+ (Sandstrom Theorem) explain the mechanisms and structure of ocean circulation
Page 24 upwelling
-
chriskoz at 23:23 PM on 5 February 2014Why rainbows and oil slicks help to show the greenhouse effect
joeygoze@20,
I would correct your [chriskoz's] statement to say it was "simple and primative distortion of the scientific literature by alarmists". That "moronic slogan" was repeated by Al Gore, John Kerry and even as late as March of 2013, Paul Beckwith.
Your "alarmists" may also be considered "science deniers", because they did not check the scientific source before pronouncing the slogan. Or, more likely, they may have fallen victims of the slogan, because they did not have time/will to verify it. They, like the deniers obstructing action against AGW I refered to earlier, also need education so that they also understand the problem of AGW and do not raise 'false alarm'.
Back to the subject of your objection re this article. I may skid onto thin ice of comment policy however cannot help but ask, what's the motivation of your objection? I've already proven you to be wrong on your assertion that "No one from any side of this discussion in the mainstream is arguing that CO2 can not trap heat". You understand that basic science and you don't need this article. Good for you. But do you want those poeple who are not as fortunate not to learn the basic climate science stuff?
-
Vonnegut at 22:42 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
"So, this good news story with a loss of coverage, but some survival if we can exclude other stressors (which we are not doing) starts to look like a Titanic story. 'Well, there will be significant loss of life, but at least some first class passengers will get into life boats" sort of thing."
I can see why you say that, You know i disagree, I think more sould be done about what we know about runoff pollutants etc because we're never going to stop producing co2 we have to mitigate the effects. Maybe while we are doing that things may adapt?
-
chriskoz at 22:37 PM on 5 February 2014Why rainbows and oil slicks help to show the greenhouse effect
joeygoze@20
My issue with the above article is the characterization that the denial of a greenhouse effect existing at all is mainstream argument. That is simply not true. No one from any side of this discussion in the mainstream is arguing that CO2 can not trap heat or that No greenhouse effect exists
That is simply not true. Obvious examples of influential peoples (who have thousands of followers) who still deny GFE are: james inhofe in US Congress, Cuccinelli in Senate of VA, Tony Abbott - AUS PM, who said that climate science is "crap" and that CO2 is invisible substance.
Therefore an article as this is needed to debunk Tony Abbott's taking point, because Tony does implicitly deny the existence of GHE here and his argument dismissing GHE is indeed his "mainstream argument". Which proves that your statement above is not true.
-
Tom Curtis at 22:35 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Vonnegut @82 and 84, unfortunately one of the "other" stressors is high Sea Surface Temperatures, which we are not limiting under current policies. Other stressors such as soil runoff, fertilizer runoff and polution will be very hard to limit in a world with a doubling population by the mid 21st century. Finally, some biological competitors are favoured by high temperature and lower pH; so will place corals under further stress. So, you have to understand that just as some scientists are saying OA may not kill of even the majority of species if we can limit other stressors, other biologists studying the impacts of these other factors, and saying the same thing, with OA included as another stressor. Thus a glimmer of hope is not a panacea.
Specifically to 82, a major shift in reef species means the at least local extinction of many species of coral. That will significantly reduce the ability of the reef to sustain biodiversity, resulting in the at least local extinction many species of fish, crustaceans, and other reef associate species. The total loss of local biodiversity has two further knock on effects. First it reduces the total biomass sustainable by the reef (reducing its potential as a source of food); and it reduces the potential to resist other shocks to the reef. The reef become less robust, and more precarious. The loss of coverage (ie, smaller reefs) reinforces that. Smaller reefs support fewer species, and are more vulnerable to complete destruction by additional hazard.
So, this good news story with a loss of coverage, but some survival if we can exclude other stressors (which we are not doing) starts to look like a Titanic story. 'Well, there will be significant loss of life, but at least some first class passengers will get into life boats" sort of thing. It is telling of the predicament facing reefs that such essentially bad news stories if taken by themselves are regarded as signs of hope.
Further, the widespread loss of species at least locally probably means the extensive loss of some species globally. Even without other stressors, this is starting to put us into survival in refugia only scenarios. That means globaly we are looking at the extinction of a very large number of coral and associated species; with hundreds of years to restore healthy reef communities, and tens of thousands of years to restore the variety of reef species, and hence the sustainable biomass of the reefs.
-
Dikran Marsupial at 22:10 PM on 5 February 2014Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
vonnegut, This is covered by the post from Tom Curtis at 125, CO2 is not a big absorber of visible light or ultra violet or the wavelengths of much of the IR we recieve from the sun.
Incidentally, see my post at 126 for an example of how to deal with getting something wrong.
-
Tom Curtis at 22:05 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Vonnegut @78, the free swimming stage typically lives for only a few days before forming a new colony (or dying), although they can live for up to two months. During two months they might disperse several thousand kms, but would tend to follow ocean currents so that their dispersal locations would be fairly predictable. As only a tiny number do this, their chance of forming a new colony is limited due to competition.
The fact that dispersal is limited is demonstrated by the fact that you have specialized corals adapted to local and unusual conditions in Palau. If dispersal was wide spread, such adaptability to local conditions would not be possible. On the other hand, if an area becomes coral free (and hence coral predator free), the potential for dispersal means it will be recolonized quickly (tens to hundreds of years, depending on remoteness) in suitable conditions. Of course, high acidity and high temperatures are unsuitable conditions and will limit the length of survival of planulae (the mobile form) and the probability of their succesfully forming a colony.
This does mean that for the levels of temperature rise and ocean acidification expected for this century, total extenction of corals was unlikely in that it is probable that some species will find refugia, ie, locations which due to local sea water chemistry (either due to river outflow, or nearby rocky outcrops acting as buffers), or some other favourable factor makes survival possible. Thus, total extinction of corals as a phylum is unlikely unless CO2 levels continue to rise strongly into the 22nd century. More on what that means in a later post.
-
Vonnegut at 21:59 PM on 5 February 2014Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Not sure its been covered yet, Is a 250ppm co2 laden atmosphere thinner than a 400ppm co2 laden atmosphere.
Is it thicker in depth and does it let the same amount of solar radiation through?
-
Vonnegut at 20:55 PM on 5 February 2014OA not OK part 1
Could someone check out this interactive on sea chemisty and tell me if its incorrect?
www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/a-quest-for-resilient-reefs
The interactive on the right, thank you.
-
Vonnegut at 20:34 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Does my post 84 not include a caveat?
-
MarkR at 20:19 PM on 5 February 2014Why rainbows and oil slicks help to show the greenhouse effect
#12 joeygoze: it is one of the craziest IMO, but I think this discussion is worthwhile because people who start looking at climate but don't have a strong physics background (which is most people?) could easily find one of the Principia Scientific sites while googling for the greenhouse effect and fall for it.
You're right in saying that it's completely physically baseless, but the same goes for many of the more common myths that you see on the more 'mainstream' pseudoskeptic sites. 'Warming has paused' contradicts statistics. 'The deep oceans can't be warming without heating up the upper layers' also contradicts basic physics. So does 'CO2 is saturated' or 'CO2 is only a tiny portion of the atmosphere so it can't cause warming'.
So I don't think that 'the pseudoskeptic argument is completely physically unrealistic' is a good reason to avoid posting about it. :)
-
Dikran Marsupial at 20:10 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
vonnegut@85 no, you have to honestly represent the sources that you use to support your argument, including relevant caveats. If you don't understand the basic need for truthfullness in science, there is no point in me continuing the discussion any further.
-
Dikran Marsupial at 20:07 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
vonnegut, any WHY do we need to protect corals from other stressors such as polution and overfishing, according to the article?
-
Vonnegut at 20:07 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
@83 So I have to post quotes that only confirm only your beliefs? Thats intellectually dishonest.
These are not random words ive quoted they are findings of respected scientists, sorry if they dont confirm what you think.
-
Vonnegut at 20:02 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
"We need to protect corals from other stressors, such as pollution and overfishing. If we can control those, the impact of ocean acidification might not be as bad."
www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=128243
From the same article, I so heartily agree with her sentiments.
-
Dikran Marsupial at 20:02 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
sorry voneggut, just going out and finding another source without acknowledging that the previous one didn't actually support your position is intellectually dishonest. What you are doing is known as "quote mining", and demonstrates that you are not looking for the truth, just conformation of your existing beliefs. That is not science.
-
Vonnegut at 19:56 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
""There are likely to be major shifts in reef species and some loss of coral cover, but if ocean acidification is the only factor there won't be total destruction," Paytan said."
www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=128243
After studying reefs on the caribbean coastline of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula
-
Kevin C at 19:53 PM on 5 February 2014Google Earth: how much has global warming raised temperatures near you?
From Peru:
BEST have lots of Peruvian stations, including some with long records, although many of them require homogenisation. Start from here and zoom out to look for for bold markers with stars in (or clusters to zoom in on).
As expected the southern stations show much bigger trends than the tropical ones.
-
Dikran Marsupial at 19:50 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
voneggut wrote "So because someone said that I have to agree with it? is that how science works?"
yes, you do have to agree with what an article says if you use that article as support for your argument, as you did. If the paper includes caveats that contradict your position, truthfullness obliges you to openly acknowledge that fact. That *is* how science works.
-
Vonnegut at 19:47 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
"It doesn't mean that coral reefs around the globe are going to be fine under ocean acidification conditions. It does mean that there are some coral communities out there--and we've found one--that appear to have figured it out. But that doesn't mean that all coral reef ecosystems are going to figure it out."
So because someone said that I have to agree with it? is that how science works?
-
Dikran Marsupial at 19:41 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
vonnegut. you first raised the example of Palau in your post here, where you gave this link:
http://nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?org=NSF&cntn_id=130129&preview=false
Do you agree that the text at that link includes the following quote:
"It doesn't mean that coral reefs around the globe are going to be fine under ocean acidification conditions. It does mean that there are some coral communities out there--and we've found one--that appear to have figured it out. But that doesn't mean that all coral reef ecosystems are going to figure it out."
If so please explain why you are ignoring this explicit caveat. Note that you are currently misrepresenting what your source of information actually says, which is every bit as much of an academic wrong-doing as plagiarism.
I suggest we ignore voneggut until he/she gives an adequate explanation of why he/she is repeatedly ignoring this caveat, even though it has been pointed out more than once. -
Vonnegut at 19:35 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Wont the free swimming stage every month mean they are widely distributed?
-
Tom Curtis at 19:20 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Vonnegut @75, the individual coral polyps are probably not very old at all. The coral species, however, are likely thousands of years old, and potentially 100s of thousands years old, with Palau adapted subspecies being less than about 8 thousand years old.
-
Tom Curtis at 19:17 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Vonnegut @72, it is highly unlikely that a mobile species such as fish would adapt more rapidly than corals. That is for two reasons. The first of these is that species adapt to the range of environments they typically experience. For mobile species, that is likely a far greater range than for sessile species such as corals. Second, fish are likely to have a slower rate of repreduction, which slows adaption. Corals reproduce monthly, and in bulk which allows a very fast turn over of generations, and high mutation rates - both conducive to rapid adaption. Fish are variable, but generally have fewer generations in a given period, and fewer offspring.
Consequently, while fish are probably well able to survive being caught in tide pools with aberrant pH values, that is probably primarilly because the pH is normalized within hours so that the damage, if any, is transient and quickly recovered. In contrast to that case, with OA there will be no convenient tides to flush out the water and restore the prior pH balance.
-
Vonnegut at 19:05 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
"Although coral mortality was as high as 90% is some areas after the 1998 bleaching event, recovery has been tremendous. The Palau International Coral Reef Center has monitored 22 sites since 2001 and found that coral cover has increased at an annual rate of 2.9% from 2001 to 2004. The average coral cover across all monitoring sites in 2004 was 31%. Surveys from 2006-2007 show continuing recovery and increased coral cover at all sites. In addition to the Protected Areas Network Act of 2003, which supports local communities in setting up MPAs, the Micronesia Challenge is a specific initiative originally proposed by the President of the Republic of Palau that has attracted wide support"
www.reefbase.org/global_database/default.aspx?section=t4
Maybe many corals arent that old in Palau?
-
Tom Curtis at 18:14 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Vonnegut, consider your text in your post @72. If I wanted to quote it, I would first copy and paste it. I would make sure it was a seperate paragraph. I would then place quotation marks at the start and the begining of the text. Having done all that, I would then highlight the text, including the quotation marks and press the "blockquote" button on the basic dashboard of comments. The result:
"While I agree with the thrust of your argument, its easy to forget there are many other creatures that live in the area by choice and are free swimming so maybe adaption to an environment like this is more instant. Such as when the tide goes out fish get stuck in tidal pools and have to put up with less alkaline even sometimes acidic water."
If the quotation was on a different site, or a different page on this site, I would then indicate who wrote it, and where. Often I do that simply by name and with a link in the introduction to the quote. If I wanted to emphasize a particular point within the quotation, I would highlight it, but then note in brackets after the quote that the emphasis (ie, the highlighting) was mine.
Now, here is a quote from my post @66:
"Interestingly, the site at Milne Bay has the '... local traditional site name “Illi Illi Bua Bua” [which] translates to “Blowing Bubbles”' (Fabricius 2011, supplementary information)."
(Emphasis added).
You will notice that I have emphasized the quote within that quote by italicizing it. That was probably necessary to avoid confusion, given the number of double and single quotation marks in the text. As the quote from Fabricius was only of part of a sentence, I did not give it a distinct paragraph, but rather simply led into within the sentence. I made a point of noting missing text with ellipsis ( "..."); and of noting my addition to the text by enclosing it in square brackets ( "[ xxx ]"). Neither the omission nor the addition alter the meaning of the text. It is important that you never in fact alter the meaning of the text when quoting. The addition was only necessary to form a gramatically correct sentence. Of course, you can, and typically should check those claims for yourself, which is one of the reasons citing the source is necessary. I forget to include the link through pure oversight. That is, I intended to do it, but forgot that I had not yet done so when I pressed submit.
For now, as this is new to you, do not bother with quoting anything less than a full paragraph. Make sure you enclose it in quotation marks and indent it with the blockquote button, and cite the source prefferably with a link. It is too easy for inexperienced quoters to inadvertently alter the meaning of text if they try to do more than that.
-
Tom Curtis at 17:57 PM on 5 February 2014Warming oceans consistent with rising sea level & global energy imbalance
jja @56, sorry, I was insufficiently clear.
I understand that your equation for TOA flux is:
y=0.1243*x^2 - 0.2485*x +0.2175
where y is the TOA flux, and x is the date.
When I plug that equation in using years AD for X, I get values of the order of 500,000. I am sure you will agree that is absurd. Consequently I tried subtracting 1977 from AD for years on the assumption that years are numbered over the period of interest. In that case, 2008 has a "TOA flux" ~116 W/m^2 which is again absurd. At that stage I have assumed that you are not using years as a unit, and have asked for the units for duration (x-axis) and the origen for the x-axis expressed in terms of AD.
-
Vonnegut at 17:33 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
@71 sorry Tom I cannot see any quotes in the piece you posted on 71 Just 2 links. When I press the " button it doesnt put quotes on the text It just moves the cursor..
-
Vonnegut at 17:28 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
While I agree with the thrust of your argument, its easy to forget there are many other creatures that live in the area by choice and are free swimming so maybe adaption to an environment like this is more instant. Such as when the tide goes out fish get stuck in tidal pools and have to put up with less alkaline even sometimes acidic water.
-
Tom Curtis at 17:24 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Vonnegut @69, my text, where not in quotes, is original to me. I researched the facts, formed an opinion, and then expressed that opinion in my own words. You are quite welcome to look up the supplementary material of Shamberger et al (2014) which is linked above, or that of Fabricius et al (2011) to confirm that fact. You will find the only direct quote is regarding the local name of the Milne Bay site, which I clearly indicated by single inverted commas.
-
Tom Curtis at 17:19 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Vonnegut @68, the corals of Palau are clearly adapted to unusually low pH. That adaption may mean they are more resistant to even very low relative pH levels, so that they can survive at a pH of 7.4 while other corals are dying of at 7.8. Alternatively, it may mean they have a narrower range of reduction in pH before they reach the limit of their adaptability. Which of these is true depends on:
1) How long they have been adapted to near their current levels of pH (selection under pressure reduces genetic variability, limiting the pace of future adaptions);
2) Whether or not there exists a hard biological limit in pH below which corals simply cannot adapt to no matter how long they have to do so; and
3) The extent to which they have experience lower pH than current in prior years (which may allow some level of pre-adaption).
Which of these is the case cannot be determined a priori, and indeed probably require very detailed and carefull studies to determine.
What can be known with high probability from the general situation is that coral health is not independant of pH levels, so that significantly decreased pH will decrease the health of a coral community (and a reduction of pH from 7.8 to 7.4 represents a 150% increase in Hydrogen ion activity). Further, it is known that elevated CO2 concentrations will decrease pH even within Palau's lagoons. Consequently OA is still a problem for Palau. It just may be less of a problem than for other coral communites, or possibly more depending on the factors described above.
On a side note, the discovery of the acidity resistance of the Palau corals is unquestionably good knews in one respect. While those corals may or may not be able to survive at Palau with future pH reductions, they will be able to survive if transplanted to other locations with, currently, higher pH. While this would not save all coral species, nor save the great barrier reefs it does mean coral phylum is less likely to go extinct. It probably wasn't going to in any event, but this provides a significant boost to the phylums chance of survival.
-
Vonnegut at 17:06 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
I see your text isnt in quotes like mine isnt what did I do wrong that you didnt?
-
jja at 16:59 PM on 5 February 2014Warming oceans consistent with rising sea level & global energy imbalance
geez, sorry
Total Energy per decade = ((TOA)/(.62))*10YEARS*1E22
-
jja at 16:57 PM on 5 February 2014Warming oceans consistent with rising sea level & global energy imbalance
Tom,
The function that you are using plots the decadel energy deposition in Watts/m^2
y=.1243*x^2 - .2485*x +.2175
The values produced are
decade Energy
1 0.0933
2 0.2177
3 0.5907
4 1.2123
5 2.0825
6 3.2013
7 4.5687To reproduce the graph, take the above values and convert from annual average W/m^2 to decadel total energy deposition
use the following conversion: Total Energy per decade = ((TOA)/(.62*10))*1E22
This produces the following values for total energy added in each decade:
Decade Energy added in the Decade
1 1.50E+22
2 3.51E+22
3 9.53E+22
4 1.96E+23
5 3.36E+23
6 5.16E+23
7 7.37E+23The first data point is 1978 which began at 5.5E22joules
1978 5.5E22joules
Then add the first decades value to 1978 to get the 1988 value
1988 7E22joules Then add the next decade value to the 1988 value
1998 10.51joules and so on to produce the final values
year energy value
1978 5.5E+22
1988 7.005E+22
1998 1.052E+23
2008 2.004E+23
2018 3.96E+23
2028 7.319E+23
2038 1.248E+24
2048 1.985E+24
incidentally, I performed another test that added the 1968 value of -4E22 and found the following function that produced a higher energy deposition rate in future years. Both of these functions produce a current TOA that is within the error range estimation of Hansen and Soto for their 2008 average. What is very interesting is how rapidly this TOA is rising as the global temperature surface temperatures have stabilized.
I consider this to be a high-range estimate and the previous to be the mid-response estimate.
http://oi60.tinypic.com/2z4lfkp.jpg -
Tom Curtis at 16:56 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
I note that the entirety of Vonnegut's post @66 except for the last sentence is plagiarized from NOAA. Plagiarism is academic fraud. It should not be tolerated. It also appears to be a repeated practise by Vonnegut.
On the off chance that he knows no better, quotations should:
1) Always be enclosed in quotation marks;
2) If in a large block of more than one sentence, should be placed in a seperate indented paragraph (you can use the quotation symbol on the basic tab of the comments box to indent);
3) Should have any changes to the text, including any addition of emphasis clearly noted; and
4) Should have the source clearly stated, preferrably with a link.
Any time you cut and past text from any source, that is a quotation, and needs to be acknowledged as such.
I request that the moderators from now on practise zero tolerance to plagiarism from Vonnegut.
-
Vonnegut at 16:50 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Presumably, in a hundred years the pH in the lagoons will be lower than the pH in the open ocean withing 100 years as well.
So whatever disaster awaits the other oceans will/should happen here first? Surely this must be the place to study above all other?
-
From Peru at 12:21 PM on 5 February 2014Google Earth: how much has global warming raised temperatures near you?
Do not worry. Somehow myself deleted the second graph. It should be this:Please, could you tell me how I can edit the images once I inserted them, and how I can stack them below the text?
-
From Peru at 12:10 PM on 5 February 2014Google Earth: how much has global warming raised temperatures near you?
My apologies for the repeated comment. It was a malfunction of my computer
Moderator Response:The much duplicated post read:
I am disgusted by the data quality in my city, the capital of Peru:
Note to moderator: it is extremely difficult to include images, because they go anywhere in the comment, now one is superposed to another and cannot be edited.Please help! (there should be two graphs)
I unfortunately deleted one too many copies.
-
Tom Curtis at 12:07 PM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
To put Vonnegut's discussion of Palau into perspective, the from the supplementary material of the paper, we find that site 9, the most acidic of the sites examined, has a pH of 7.84 (See Table S1). Site 9 certainly has a very healthy coral community, as shown by this picture of the site:
For perspective, however, that should be compared to the coral from Milne Bay, Papua/New Guinea discussed in Fabricius et al, 2011:
The most comparable site from Fabricius et al is site b, with a pH of 7.8-8. Although comparable in pH, clearly the Nassau site 9 is thriving far better than site b in Milne Bay (a point I will return to). However, equally, as the pH continues to fall, corals find it still harder to survive, until they die out completely. Ocean pH is projected to fall well below 7.8 by 2100 with high level emission scenarios. Consequently the fact that coral in Palau can survive at relatively low pH is little long term comfort without mitigation of emissions.
It should be noted that site 9 from Palau, like site B from Milne Bay, has no branching corals, ie, the corals most vulnerable to ocean acidification. Ocean acidity, therefore, is still having an effect in Palau. Some local feature, however, is allowing some corals to still continue to thrive, establishing the basis for a thriving marine community.
There are some further interesting nuances. Interestingly, the site at Milne Bay has the '... local traditional site name “Illi Illi Bua Bua” [which] translates to “Blowing Bubbles”' (Fabricius 2011, supplementary information). That traditional name indicates that the volcanic seep which creates the acidic conditions has existed for some time, possibly for centuries. In contrast, the unique conditions in Palau have existed for at least a few thousand of years, and potentially for as much as 8 thousand years. That difference is important. Biological organisms take time to adapt to new conditions. It is clear that in Milne Bay they have not adapted well. That is evidence that a century or two is not adequate time for an appropriate adaption. Palau indicates, on the other hand that several thousands of years are enough time for an adequate adaption (if not for branching corals). The problem is, with the rate of ocean acidification from anthropogenic emissions, corals do not have centuries within which to adapt, but mere decades. Therefore the Milne Bay example is far more likely to be informative about the probable impacts on corals globally than are the those at Palau.
Finally, the situation is grave even for the corals at Palau. That is because they are currently adapted to pH levels in the lagoons equivalent to the expected open ocean pH in a hundred years. That pH, however, is lowered (ie, more acidic) relative to the the current pH in the open ocean near Palau. Presumably, in a hundred years the pH in the lagoons will be lower than the pH in the open ocean withing 100 years as well. That means, the Palau corals will face pH levels significantly lower than those they currently face, with mere decades to adapt when many centuries, and possible more are required to adapt to that reduced pH - if it is possible.
So, Vonnegut's read on the Palau corals depends on focussing on one fact only. He does not consider the entire context, either chemically, or biologically. It is only thate very limited view of the evidence that allows him to avoid its implications.
-
ubrew12 at 11:56 AM on 5 February 2014Why rainbows and oil slicks help to show the greenhouse effect
Denier inflation alert: Given the stunning retreat of summer Arctic Ice in the last 20 years, why is the 'fact' that ice didn't disappear COMPLETELY in 2013 some kind of 'proof' that Global Warming is a hoax? Why, if the five hottest years in known history occurred since the turn of this century (according to Cowtan & Way's analysis), yet temperatures didn't increase as much as they did between 1978 and 1998, is this proof that Global Warming is a hoax?
The value of 'Doubt is our Product' denialism is the assumption that 'they' own the goalposts, and will move them whereever they want. Because, don't ya know, they are just THAT kind of sticklers for perfection. All I can say is: I want THAT job!
I can't believe the number of deniers who have told me the Climate Models are broken. Who have no Climate Models, and can't point to any, despite being backed by the most profitable industry in the history of capitalism, that models EVERYTHING, from oil tanker designs, to oil fields, to chemical refineries, to pipelines, and for which Climate Change as an existential threat to its profitability. No competing Climate models of any kind.
This reminds me of Graffiti taggers. Someone else builds a bridge and people say 'its beautiful'. Then the tagger paints the bridge with his favorite swear word and points out 'no, its not'. And then, amazingly, some people start to agree with him...
-
chriskoz at 11:54 AM on 5 February 2014Warming oceans consistent with rising sea level & global energy imbalance
HK@52,
What I find most striking is the fact that even if the atmospheric warming in the last decade had continued at the same rate as before 2000 (0.2oC/decade), this would only add about 1 percent (!!) to the present energy imbalance.
If read literally - i.e. if atmospheric warming was higher, then Earth energy imbalance (TOA) would increase marginally, by 1% - it would contradict the basics of IR radiation theory. Increased atmospheric temperature results with more energy loss due to IR and that should lead to the decrease of global "energy imbalance", as defined in this article (TOA energy budget measured by satelites), contradicting your statement.
I read it as such but then I realised that of course by the "energy imbalance" you must mean the "measure of heat accumulation". Then your statement is true and supports your conclusion.
So beware to describe your concepts precisely, otherwise people like me won't understand you. Or worse: the denialists will pick up on your words and spin the story against you.
-
Tom Curtis at 09:46 AM on 5 February 2014Warming oceans consistent with rising sea level & global energy imbalance
jja @51, I am having a great deal of difficulty reproducing your results. Specifically, you have not specified an origin for your formulas discussed in previous posts, and using 0 AD (=1 BC) as the origin gives nonsense results using those formalas. Further, using your formula for the TOA flux of y=.1243*x^2 - .2485*x +.2175 does not yield sensible results for any choice of origin if I use years as the units of the x axis.
Can you please confirm that that is the correct formula, and specify units and origin for the x-axis?
-
Vonnegut at 09:31 AM on 5 February 2014Ocean Acidification Is Fatal To Fish
Palau’s rich marine biota include approximately 400 species of hard corals, 300 species of soft corals, 1400 species of reef fishes, 7 out of 9 of the world’s species of giant clams, thousands of other invertebrates (many still to be identified), the world’s most isolated colony of dugongs (a relative of the sea cow) and Micronesia’s only saltwater crocodiles. Terrestrial species include 1260 species of plants (including almost 200 endemics), 141 resident and migratory bird species (including 11 endemics), 5000 species of insects, and 40 species of freshwater fishes, including at least 4 endemics. Palau has the largest undisturbed forest and largest freshwater lake in Micronesia,, and 70 unique marine lakes
Its not so isolated that all the species there are unique.
Moderator Response:[PS] It would help your readers if you explained how your statement of facts progresses your argument.
-
joeygoze9259 at 08:56 AM on 5 February 2014Why rainbows and oil slicks help to show the greenhouse effect
chriskoz@18
If you want to argue on who is parsing words, the predictions made in 2007, 2008, and 2009 I was taking from Al Gore so if he failed to use the words "if the trend continues", I would correct your statement to say it was "simple and primative distortion of the scientific literature by alarmists" That "moronic slogan" was repeated by Al Gore, John Kerry and even as late as March of 2013, Paul Beckwith from the Sierra Club when he wrote "“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer (2013). An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean." Italics is added to refer to the year he is speaking about.
My issue with the above article is the characterization that the denial of a greenhouse effect existing at all is mainstream argument. That is simply not true. No one from any side of this discussion in the mainstream is arguing that CO2 can not trap heat or that No greenhouse effect exists. If there was NO greenhouse effect, then the Earth would be very inhospitable place to live.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please doument your source of information about the statements supposedly made by Al Gore, John Kerry, and Paul Beckwith.
BTW, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Paul Beckwith are not climate scientists.
-
grindupBaker at 08:48 AM on 5 February 2014Why rainbows and oil slicks help to show the greenhouse effect
joeygoze #15 different bucket. I've computed with virtual certainty that it's more than 5 decimal orders of magnitude more incompetent to disbelieve a solid bit of physics, that school kids are demonstrating in videos, than to predict 2013 as the exact year in which the arctic will be ice free. Nonetheless, please provide a link to some of the persons who said that so that we can ponder it.
Prev 782 783 784 785 786 787 788 789 790 791 792 793 794 795 796 797 Next
