Posted on 22 August 2013 by John Hartz

5 Terrifying Statements in the Leaked Climate Report

Climate Desk has obtained a leaked copy of the draft Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2013 Summary for Policymakers report, which other media outlets are also reporting on. The document is dated June 7, 2013. We recognize, as we've previously reported, that this document is not final, and is in fact certain to change.

Most media outlets are focusing on the document's conclusion that it is now "extremely likely"—or, 95 percent certain—that humans are behind much of the global warming seen over the last six decades. But there is much more of note about the document—for instance, the way it doesn't hold back. It says, very bluntly, just how bad global warming is going to be. It gives a sense of irreversibility, of scale…and, of direness.

In particular, here are five "holy crap" statements from the new draft report: 

5 Terrifying Statements in the Leaked Climate Report by Chris Mooney, Mother Jones,Aug 20, 2013

Carbon emissions sure to prompt rise of sea levels

Unless the governments of the world find immediate solutions to curb their respective fossil fuel consumptions and carbon emissions, the global populace might as well retire to an impending plausible scenario of rising sea levels by year 2100 to as much as three feet high.

Carbon Emissions Sure to Prompt Rise of Sea Levels by Esther Tanquintic-Misa, International Business Times, Aug 21, 2013

Climate change deniers live in ignorant bliss as seas keep rising

A new climate-change report from the United Nations that was leaked to the media this week says sea levels could rise by more than 3 feet by the end of the 21st century and that there is a 95% likelihood that the global warming that is causing this rise is largely a result of human activity. You may now cue the deniers who say somebody is just making this stuff up.

Climate change deniers live in ignorant bliss as seas keep rising, Op-ed by David Horsey, Los Angeles Times, Aug 22, 2013

Climate leaks are 'misleading' says IPCC ahead of major report

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned against drawing too many conclusions from the latest leaked version of its upcoming, and eagerly awaited, Assessment Report 5 (AR5).

Climate leaks are 'misleading' says IPCC ahead of major report by Matt McGrath, BBC News, Aug 19, 2013

Climate panel cites near certainty on warming

An international panel of scientists has found with near certainty that human activity is the cause of most of the temperature increases of recent decades, and warns that sea levels could conceivably rise by more than three feet by the end of the century if emissions continue at a runaway pace.

Climate Panel Cites Near Certainty on Warming by Justin Gillis, New York Times, Aug 19, 2013

Climate scientists are 95 percent sure that humans are causing global warming

Climate hawks are buzzing over leaks from the fifth big climate report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due to be officially released in September. Spoiler: Scientists are pretty damn confident that we’re screwing up the climate. 

Climate scientists are 95 percent sure that humans are causing global warming by Lisa Hymas, Grist, Aug 19, 2013

Climatologists more certain global warming is caused by humans, impacts are speeding up

Of course, nothing in the report should be a surprise to readers of Climate Progress, since the AR5 is just a (partial) review of the scientific literature (see my12/11 post, It’s “Extremely Likely That at Least 74% of Observed Warming Since 1950″ Was Manmade; It’s Highly Likely All of It Was). The draft AR5 confirms that natural forces played a very small role in warming since 1950, which again means that human activity is highly likely be a source of virtually all of the recent warming.

Climatologists More Certain Global Warming Is Caused By Humans, Impacts Are Speeding Up by Joseph Romm, Climate Progress, Aug 18, 2013

Experts surer of manmade global warming but local predictions elusive

Climate scientists are surer than ever that human activity is causing global warming, according to leaked drafts of a major U.N. report, but they are finding it harder than expected to predict the impact in specific regions in coming decades.

The uncertainty is frustrating for government planners: the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) is the main guide for states weighing multi-billion-dollar shifts to renewable energy from fossil fuels, for coastal regions considering extra sea defences or crop breeders developing heat-resistant strains.

Drafts seen by Reuters of the study by the U.N. panel of experts, due to be published next month, say it is at least 95 percent likely that human activities - chiefly the burning of fossil fuels - are the main cause of warming since the 1950s.

Experts surer of manmade global warming but local predictions elusive by Alister Doyle, Reuters, Aug 16, 2013

IPCC report to be closely watched on climate sensitivity, sea-level rise

Part of the much-anticipated IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are to be officially released in late September, with much interest certain to focus on the approach to climate sensitivity and projected sea-level rise increases.

IPCC Report to be Closely Watched on Climate Sensitivity, Sea-Level Rise, The Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media, August 23, 2013

It's more certain that humans drive global warming

Scientists are more convinced that human activity is behind the increase in global temperatures since the 1950s, which has boosted sea levels and the odds of extreme storms, according to a leaked draft of an upcoming U.N. report.

"It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010," according to a summary of the draft obtained by CNN. "There is high confidence that this has warmed the ocean, melted snow and ice, raised global mean sea level and changed some climate extremes in the second half of the 20th century."

U.N. panel says it's more certain that humans drive global warming by Matt Smith, CNN, Aug 20, 2013

Rising Sea Levels Up to Three Feet by 2100 

According to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change could cause sea levels to rise by up to three feet by 2100, creating potential disaster areas in some of the world's most densely populated cities including (but not limited to): New York, Miami, New Orleans, London, Shanghai, Venice and Sydney.

Climate Change Scientists Warn: Rising Sea Levels Up to Three Feet by 2100 Could Sink Miami, New York, Latinos, Adam Janos, Latinos, Aug 20, 2013

The climate may be changing, but the IPCC remains the same

By 2021, climate scientists should be 99 percent certain that climate change is our fault—up from 95 percent certain presently and a mere 90 percent certain all the way back in 2007. This conclusion of the leaked draft of the forthcoming assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) begs the question: Is any of that certainty changing anything? 

The Climate May Be Changing, but the IPCC Remains the Same by David Biello, Scientific American, Aug 21, 20113

The contrarians finally agree we are changing the climate

Climate contrarians may concede more than they bargained for when the next IPCC report is published.

With the forthcoming IPCC report, the contrarians finally agree we are changing the climate by John Abraham, Climate Consensus-the 97%, The Guardian, Aug 18, 2013