Comments 1 to 9:

1. chriskoz at 06:57 AM on 21 October, 2013

   An interesting news on the NSW fires worth pondering on.

   state of emergency declared as bushfire conditions worsen

   Extraordinary precaution policy have been activated by the premier - forced evacuation by police and demolition of buildings if necessary. That's what he said inexplanation:

   "I'm sure it will be [controversial]. There isn't much in the fire-management business that isn't controversial … But I'd rather be copping criticism in two or three days' time for what didn't occur."

   Note that this is the same person who denies the necessity to address global warming (essntially repeats the talking of his federal counterpart and colleage Tony Abbott) thus does not make a connection between those two issues. Obviously, he may not be facing the consequences of the related issue yet, but his successor definitely will.

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2. Doug Bostrom at 09:16 AM on 21 October, 2013

   First-person views of adaptation to climate change, via Australian firefighter helmet cameras. 

   Adaptation is a deceptively soft word. 

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3. vrooomie at 04:41 AM on 22 October, 2013

   Rather than Atlas, perhaps it should have been Sisyphus, letting the Eaarth (<----not a typo) just roll down the hill...:(

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4. Doug Bostrom at 07:59 AM on 22 October, 2013

   Here's an article that may have some fairly profound implications:

   Contribution of ocean overturning circulation to tropical rainfall peak in the Northern Hemisphere

   The final sentence of the abstract is a candidate for masterpiece of understatement. 

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5. Doug Bostrom at 08:29 AM on 22 October, 2013

   Chief UN climate herder Figueres makes a radical proposition: yes, climate politics, climate policy and climate outcomes are connected.

   UN climate chief Christiana Figueres calls for global action amid NSW bushfires

   Of course she'll be denounced as rude and insensitive. It's sort of the global equivalent of the 2nd Amendment discussion. 

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6. Doug Bostrom at 16:16 PM on 22 October, 2013

   Carrying on my conversation with myself, it strikes me that this year's early and large fire situation in Australia is roughly akin to what hurricane Sandy was to the US, except perhaps more so. We have: 

   -- Historically hottest September on record for Australia, following...

   -- Australia's warmest winter on record, which came after...

   -- Australia's hottest summer on record, as part of...

   -- Australia's warmest 12 months on record, which contained...

   -- Australia's warmest day, week and month on record, appearing likely to lead to...

   -- Australia's warmest calendar year on record. 

   Yet when I look at comments attached to the Figueres article above, I see familiar, confidently expressed opinions that this year's fire situation in Australia is quite normal, nothing out of the ordinary, to be expected, and most of all definitely not connected with climate. 

   Really not climate, for sure? But the climate -has- changed:

   

   So how can people say with such certainty that this year's unusually large, early and dynamic fires have no relationship with climate? Last year's fires occurred in the context of warm and dry conditions, something everybody agrees encourages fires. This year's fires are happening in similar context.  If we see year-on-year increases in fire activity and those years are accompanied by atmospheric changes that are larger than weather and these changes tend to encourage fires, then what's a reasonable, consistent explanation for how these fires are unconnected with climate? 

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7. chriskoz at 17:15 PM on 22 October, 2013

   doug_bostrom,

   I chipin to your conversation.

   The factors that contribute bushfires in AU are not only the record high temperatures (as proven in your last post) but also:

   - large amout of burnable biomass in scherophyl forests

   - dry conditions

   - wind

   The last factor is unpredictable (weather) but the first two are changing with changing climate. In particular, recent studies concluded the intensification of LaNina/ElNino cycles on E coast; means more intense LaNina floods and drier/hotter ElNino. This is exactly what we've experienced in last few years: remember record floods of 2010-2011 which even contributed to the unusual sea level negative departure from the satellite treands by 7mm? I've been watching the rainfall data in the fire affected area (Blackheath NSW where I own the house which is now under threat to burn) during that time. The rainfall anomally was high (some twice as much fell) and summers mild, contributing to the high understory growth. Then came the record dry spring - the driest in my memory - only some 70mm fell in 3 and half mounts to date. Did ElNino return? To my feeling it did! But if the ENSO index is globally neutral yet, what would happen if the index becomes truly positive?

   I saw some comments "bushfires have always been part of AU life and cliame change has nothing to do with it" (ala "climate has always been changing" argument) but the silly commenters don't understand that ENSO fluctiations are driving the bushfire conditions and that said fluctuations are predicted to intensify. And what we're seing today is the result of such intensification. And remember, this is just the pre-season (the begin of official suthern summer is still 2 month away), it can only become worse next time, if such conditions align in the middle of summer...

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8. John Hartz at 23:20 PM on 22 October, 2013

   Doug:

   Perhaps you could channel your musings into a blog post article. As fate would have it, Dana is on a two week vacation in Australia. We therefore need other authors to step up to the plate and knock it our of the park. (World Series time in the US.)

   I'm watching CNN. It just reported on the wildfires. Quoted an offical who said, "As bad as it gets!" 

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9. vrooomie at 07:06 AM on 23 October, 2013

   Doug, I second John's suggestion...a spiffy blog post is in the making, with what you've posted, and your considerable gift of elucidation.

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