Arguments
2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #52
Posted on 26 December 2015 by John Hartz
A chronological listing of the news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook page during the past week.
Sun, Dec 20
- To Achieve Paris Climate Goals, U.S. Will Need New Laws by David Gelles, New York Times, Dec 18, 2015
- Will Big Finance Join the Fight to Curb Global Warming? by Tara Lohan, The American Prospect, Dec 14, 2015
- Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world’s strange weather by John Vidal, The Observer/Guardian, Dec 20, 2015
- Republicans grope for way to kill Paris climate agreement by Devin Henry, The Hill, Dec 20, 2015
- 5 Climate And Clean Energy Charts From 2015 You Need To See by Joe Romm, Climate Progress, Dec 17, 2015
- George Mitchell, overlooked environmentalist, reflects on climate change by Mary Pols, Portland (Maine) Press Herald, Dec 20, 2015
- Ed Miliband aims for cross-party coalition on climate change by Matthew Taylor, The Guadian, Dec 20, 2015
- Decline of Tropical Animals Could Hasten Climate Change by Bobby Magill, Climate Central, Dec 18, 2015
Mon, Dec 21
- Solar power surges – slowly – in regulation-heavy Russia by Angelina Davydova, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Dec 21, 2015
- People Who Were Certain Climate Change Is Fake Are Now Certain That Paris Can’t Stop It by Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine, Dec 20, 2015
- New Report Warns Of Dramatic Changes For Arctic Under Global Warming by Chreyl Katz, The Huffington Post, Dec 18, 2015
- The best of climate science and humanity come together at AGU by Dana Nuccitelli, Climate Consensus - the 97%, The Guardian, Dec 21, 2015
- The Top Ten Reasons to be Hopeful on Climate Change by Jeff Masters, Weather Underground, Dec 16, 2015
- Bad news: Scientists say we could be underestimating Arctic methane emissions by Chelsea Harvey, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Dec 21, 2015
- It’s Official: None Of The Remaining Major GOP Candidates Accept Climate Science by Emily Atkin, Climate Progress, Dec 21, 2015
- Freakish Winter Warmth: It’s NOT Not Global Warming by Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Common Dreams, Dec 21, 2015
Tue, Dec 22
- As decision nears, opposition builds to offshore drilling along Atlantic Coast by Joby Warrick, Health & Science, Washington Post, Dec 20, 2015
- Climate change and the Victorian bushfires: this is not a coincidence by Cabell Klose, The Guardian, Dec 21, 2015
- Exxon's Support of a Tax on Carbon: Rhetoric or Reality? by David Hasemyer & Bob Simison, Dec 21, 2015
- Scientists say climate change could cause a ‘massive’ tree die-off in the U.S. Southwest by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Dec 21, 2015
- 'Worthless words' or 'diplomatic triumph'? Climate scientists weigh in on Paris agreement by Daniel Schwartz, CBC News, Dec 21, 2015
- Please, Republicans, believe in science again: We need this climate deal, and can’t do it without you by Frederic C, Rich, Salon, Dec 22, 2015
- Carbon Brief’s 15 numbers for 2015, Carbon Brief Staff, Dec 22, 2015
- How Bad of a Greenhouse Gas Is Methane? by Gayathri Vaidyanathan, Climate Wire/Scientific American, Dec 22, 2015
Wed, Dec 23
- The state of India’s forests by Ananda Banerjee, LiveMint, Dec 22, 2015
- After Paris accord, most U.S. Republicans back action on climate by Megan Cassella, Reuters, Dec 22, 2015
- What Happened to the Polar Vortex? Kate Shepard, Climate Central, Dec 22, 2015
- Exxon's Oil Industry Peers Knew About Climate Dangers in the 1970s, Too by Neela Banerjee, InsideClimate News, Dec 22, 2015
- ExxonMobil and Sierra Club Agreed on Climate Policy—and Kept It Secret by Eric Roston, Bloomberg Business News, Dec 22, 2015
- Republican candidate ‘would pull US out of Paris climate deal’ by Megan Darby, Climate Home, Dec 23, 2015
- How Close Are We to 'Dangerous' Planetary Warming? by Michael Mann, The Huffington Post, Dec 23, 2015
Thu, Dec 24
- Oil prices keep falling — this is the reason why by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Dec 23, 2015
- Here's Yet Another Alarming Effect Of Melting Arctic Sea Ice by Jacqueline Howard, The Huffington Post, Dec 23, 2015
- This is Why Scientists Have Hope for the Climate by Brian Kahn, Climate Central, Dec 24, 2015
- The Carbon Brief Interview: Michel Jarraud by Roz Pidcock, Carbon Brief, Dec 22, 2015
- Carbon Emissions Link To Regional Impacts Is Clear, Study Says by Alejandro Davila Fragoso, Climate Progress, Dec 23, 2015
- 2015: The Year the Weather Took a Particularly Wild Ride by Katherine Bagley, InsideClimate News, Dec 23, 2015
- Unusual winter has millennials concerned about climate change by Melissa Fares and Angela Moon, Reuters, Dec 23, 2015
Fri, Dec 25
- This Freakishly Warm, Totally Wrong Christmas Eve Weather, Explained by Eric Holthaus, Slate, Dec 24, 2015
- U.S. Bread Basket Shifts Thanks to Climate Change by Niina Heikkinen, ClimateWire, Dec 23, 2015
- Records smashed on East Coast’s warmest ever Christmas Eve by Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Dec 24, 2015
- December heatwave shatters record temperatures in south-eastern Australia by Lucy Cormack, Sydney Morning Herald, Dec 23, 2015
- David Attenborough interview: 'We can't afford to be fatigued about climate change' by Jessamy Calkin, The Telegraph, Dec 19, 2015
- Russia warming 'more than twice as fast' as rest of the world, Reuters/The Nation. Dec 25, 2015
- A Fitting End for the Hottest Year on Record by Jonah Bromwich, New York Times, Dec 23, 2015
- Insurance firm turns to planting trees in South Africa to combat drought risk by Jeff Barbee, The Guardian, Dec 23, 2015
Sat, Dec 26
- 'Unprecedented' gas leak in California is the climate disaster version of BP's oil spill by Andrew Freedman, Mashable, Dec 24, 2015
- Storm Eva: severe flood warnings in place as rain drenches northern Britain by Jessica Elgot, Damien Gayle & agencies, The Guardian, Dec 26, 2015
- EPA sees exciting future for utilities as Clean Power Plan takes effect by Simon Evans, Carbon Brief, Dec 23, 2015
- With CO2 Boost, Marshes Can Rise to Meet Flood Risks by John Upton, Climate Central, Dec 23, 2015
- Australia's carbon emissions jump in 2015 by Latika Bourke, The Age, Dec 26, 2015
- ‘We’ve all lost’ in bet about climate change, says Durango man by Jonathan Romeo, The Durango Herald, Dec 24, 2015
- The GOP vs. The Reality of Climate Change by James Resnick, The Huffington Post, Dec 22, 2015
I searched the release of the agreement and (I might have missed it) found zero references to "population numbers".
This is quite extraordinary. Increasing population by 30% will, all things considered, increase emissions by 30%. Everyone knows this.
Global population is the most fundamental parameter in emissions, let alone resource depletion, yet seems to be a taboo topic even amongst climate negotiators. I see little hope for the future until this elephant is recognised.
In 2012 it was East Coast and New York. Now, 3y later, it's the old York accross the ditch.
Unprecedented flooding in Britain
A very remarkable is the current outcome of the review of the country's flood defences by UK env agency:
Hmmm, that's the last ditch attempt, short of abandoning hte town. I haven't seen any gov anouncing a measure like that yet, which essentially means all other measures have failed.
Since I cannot/do not comment on Facebook: we may need 500,000 km2 for Solar PV. The sahara has 9,400,000 km2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara ) . No problem there.
However: do we have the minerals to do so? What are the ecological consequences of that? More generally: interesting article (in German) regarding this: Prof. Hans-Peter Dürr said, we might need to stabilize energy use at 8TW for entropy reasons, the limit being determined through exceeding the natural biodiversity loss rate.
--
Translation (by me):
The Ziegler eco number (translated citation from a book of Ziegler):
"In a study by Wolfram Ziegler in which the antropogene loss of biological species is valued as an important indicator for technical civilisation over burdening of natural systems, the interesting claim was made that the antropogene and in last recourse thermal average energy flow per time and surface can effectively be used to measure ecological burden. For central Europe he deduces a maximum limit burden of ± 20 kW/km2 or 0,16 ± 0,02 W/m2.
It is interesting to compare this limit burden with the average solar surface radiation in Germany of 116 W/m2. The burden limit is 0,1%.
More telling however seems a comparison with the (previously) estimated average of solar induced biomass of 0,65 W/m2 (which amounts to 0,5 % of the solar surface radiation). This means, that the maximum ecoloogical burden of commercial energy use is 20% of the sun induced biomass. For the globe, an overall burden limit through antropogene technically provided energy of 8 TW can be extrapolated"
From: Hans Peter Dürr 1993, Zukunft, Page 161
---
(My own comment from a german post, translated):
In his article “The 1,5kW society” (“Die 1,5 kW-Gesellschaft”) Prof. Dürr puts in relation the above Ziegler eco number of 20% “admissible" (solar) energy resp. 8 TW with the (former) 5,5 billion world population: sustainability would thus be achieved with the living standard of an average swiss citizen as of 1969. Today, we are already 7 billion people and many do not live like swiss citizens in the 50s or 60s ..
Prof. Dürrs “The 1,5kW society” (german)
http://gcn.de/download/D15KW.pdf
--
Original german text:
Die Zieglersche Ökozahl:
"Wolfram Ziegler hat in einer Studie, in welcher der anthropogene Ausfall biologischer Arten als wichtiger Hinweis für die technisch-zivilisatorische Überbelastung der natürlichen Systeme gewertet wird, die interessante These vertreten, daß der anthropogene und letztlich thermische durchschnittliche Energiefluß pro Zeit- und Flächeneinheit effektiv als Kausal- und Kenngröße für die Umweltbelastung geeignet sei. Für Mitteleuropa kommt er hierbei auf eine maximale Grenzbelastung von 160 ± 20 kW/km2 oder 0,16 ± 0,02 W/m2.
Es ist interessant, diese ermittelte Grenzbelastung mit der in Deutschland im Mittel am Boden einfallenden Sonnenstrahlung von 116 W/m2 zu vergleichen. Die Grenzbelastung liegt hierzu bei etwa einem Promille.
Aufschlußreicher erscheint vielleicht ein Vergleich mit dem früher abgeschätzten Mittelwert für die sonnen-induzierte Biomasse von etwa 0,65 W/m2 (also etwa 0,5 % im Vergleich zur am Boden ankommenden Sonnenstrahlung). Dies bedeutet, dass der ökologisch maximal verträgliche kommerzielle Energieumsatz bei etwa einem Fünftel der im Mittel durch Sonnenenergie gebildeten Biomasse liegt. Für den Globus ließe sich daraus eine Grenzbelastung durch anthropogene, technisch aufbereitete Energieumsätze in Höhe von insgesamt 8 TW extrapolieren.
aus: Hans Peter Dürr 1993 Zukunft S. 161"
---
In seinem Artikel "Die 1,5 kW-Gesellschaft" setzt Prof. Dürr obige zieglersche 20% "zulässige" (Sonnen-) Energie bzw. 8 TW bei (damals) 5,5 Mrd Weltbevölkerung in Relation zu damaligen Konsumzahlen: nachhaltig wäre demnach der Lebensstandard eines Schweizers im Jahre 1969. Heute sind wir schon 7 Milliarden Menschen und viele leben längst nicht mehr wie die Schweizer in den 50ern und 60ern ...
Prof. Dürrs "Die 1,5kW Gesellschaft"
http://gcn.de/download/D15KW.pdf
--
Off topic: I just donated (twice the amount of last year). You folks deliver an incredible source on climate change and I at least want to help cover costs of the site. I recently took a german online course on climate science to evaluate links and material and of course there were deniers. What would I have done without this site? I painfully remember the days before I came to know it. Deep bowing and a happy new year!