Comments 1 to 4:

1. william5331 at 06:06 AM on 13 November, 2018

   Some time ago it was reported that Pacific Salmon are appearing in some Arctic streams.  They may be migrating, stream by stream toward the Atlantic.  The purists won't be pleased but imagine the great variety of Pacific Salmon in Atlantic waters.  Salmo salvar will have some competition.

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2. Lorenz-was-RIGHT at 18:00 PM on 16 November, 2018

   As this is your first post, Skeptical Science respectfully reminds you to please follow our comments policy. Thank You!

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   My first!

   I’ve been reading for a long time but never wanted to comment. This is probably the best place to ask- for months a skeptical guy at work has been saying that this was going to be a very cold winter because of the sunspot dearth. It’s been an unusually warm Autumn but today was a little odd. 

   Now I’m down a rabbit hole. What’s the best rebuttal?

   Thanks!

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3. Eclectic at 21:12 PM on 16 November, 2018

   LorenzWR @2 ,

   I read that the NASA (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) global data show that October 2018 global temperature was +0.99 degreesC above the 1951-1980 reference period [so about +1.77 degreesF ].  (This does not include the poles.)

   The other American Agency ( NCDC/NOAA ) not yet released the October figures . . . but they report that the September 2018 was for Northern Hemisphere +0.91 degreesC [ +1.64 degreesF ] above their reference period (they use 20th century average, I gather).  This was the 4th hottest September on record (tying with 2017).

   Interestingly perhaps, the charts show Canada and Uzbekistan as colder than usual ~ which may be some consolation to your friend.  

   In the end, we'll just have to wait a few months, and see what the Northern Hemispheric winter delivers.  But the world temperature has been climbing steeply for 40+ years, and shows no sign of easing off (because the underlying cause of the warming is continuing unabated).

   Your friend should pay less attention to sunspots, and more to the actual heat being radiated from our sun (which has been fairly steady over the past five 11-year cycles of solar activity).  If he thinks somehow that solar magnetic flux and cosmic ray intensity are significant players in influencing climate changes . . . then he is very poorly informed, and needs to educate himself.

   Overall for the upcoming Northern winter ~ if your friend were betting on a horserace, then I reckon (in view of September/October) that your friend's horse is trailing the field badly as they make the final turn.  But it's only over when it's over.  And unless it actually falls, his horse must have an outside chance.  But we must remember there are another 30+ winters to be run, until mid century ~ and your friend will eventually have empty pockets by then.

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4. MA Rodger at 02:21 AM on 17 November, 2018

   Lorenz-was-RIGHT @2,

   The idea that a winter can "very cold because of the sunspot dearth" has been proposed by Lockwood et al (2010) but this was firstly a statistical finding so not every year with low sunspot numbers will be cold and secondly it is certainly not a global or even a northern hemsphere statistic but relates to a particular location (the study applied to Central England).

   The hypothesis is that low sunspot numbers can result in a more wobbly and static jetstream which in turn can result in a certain location being subjected to freezing arctic winds for weeks on end. The flip-side of this is that other areas will be subjected to warm southern winds for weeks on end.

   As you say that the "very cold winter" proposal comes from a 'skeptical guy', it might be worth also pointing to Lockwood et al (2017) who conclude on this matter "The latest science indicates that low solar activity could indeed increase the frequency of cold winters in Europe, but that it is a phenomenon that is restricted to winter and is just one of a complex mix of factors" with Lockwood stressing in an accompanying release "This study provides little solace for the future, as we face the challenge of global warming. Solar activity appears to be declining at present, but any cooling effect that results will be more than offset by the effect of rising carbon dioxide emissions, and provides us with no excuse for inaction."

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