Arguments
2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
Posted on 14 April 2018 by John Hartz
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week.
Editor's Pick
Avoid Gulf stream disruption at all costs, scientists warn
How close the world is to a catastrophic collapse of giant ocean currents is unknown, making halting global warming more critical than ever, scientists say
Other research this week showed that Greenland’s massive ice cap is melting at the fastest rate for at least 450 years. Photograph: Nick Cobbing/Greenpeace
Serious disruption to the Gulf Stream ocean currents that are crucial in controlling global climate must be avoided “at all costs”, senior scientists have warned. The alert follows the revelation this week that the system is at its weakest ever recorded.
Past collapses of the giant network have seen some of the most extreme impacts in climate history, with western Europe particularly vulnerable to a descent into freezing winters. A significantly weakened system is also likely to cause more severe storms in Europe, faster sea level rise on the east coast of the US and increasing drought in the Sahel in Africa.
The new research worries scientists because of the huge impact global warming has already had on the currents and the unpredictability of a future “tipping point”.
Avoid Gulf stream disruption at all costs, scientists warn by Damian Carrrington, Environment, Guardian, Apr 13, 2018
Links posted on Facebook
Sun Apr 8, 2018
- New research, March 26 - April 1, 2018 by Ari Jokimäki, Skeptical Science, Apr 6, 2018
- Colombia's top court orders government to protect Amazon forest in landmark case by Anastasia Moloney, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Apr 6, 2018
- Rules to govern sun-dimming technology "urgently" needed - expert by Laurie Goering, Thomson Reuters Foundtion, Apr 7, 2018
- Trump’s Climate Change Denial Is Already Reshaping Public Opinion. Opinion by John Cook, HuffPost, Apr 3, 2018
- In March, Portugal Made More Than Enough Renewable Energy To Power The Whole Country by Camila Domonoske, NPR News, Apr 5, 2018
- Mark Carney warns of climate change threat to financial system by Richard Partington, Business, Guardian, Apr 6, 2018
- Solar geoengineering ‘too uncertain to go ahead yet’ by Alex Kirby, Climate News Network, Apr 6, 2018
- Faced with global warming, aviation industry eyes electric-powered aircraft. AFP/The Straits Times, Apr 8, 2018
Mon Apr 9, 2018
- Abandoned collieries could hold key to heating UK homes by Robin Mckie, Environment, Observer/Guardian, Apr 7, 2018
- Nobody should believe Canadian politicians who promise to fight climate change by Paul Wells, Maclean's, Apr 6, 2018
- Saving the world: the 'new normal' for finance? by Lee Mannion, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Apr 6, 2018
- Why Green Groups Are Split on Subsidizing Carbon Capture Technology by Richard Conniff, Yale Environment 360, Apr 9, 2018
- To See Offshore Wind Energy’s Future, Look on Shore – in Massachusetts by Jan Ellen Spiegel, InsideClimate News, Apr 9, 2018
- Antarctic Glaciers Lost Stunning Amount of Ground in Recent Years by Chelsea Harvey, E&E News/Scientific American, Apr 4, 2018
- In His Haste to Roll Back Rules, Scott Pruitt, E.P.A. Chief, Risks His Agenda by Coral Davenport & Lisa Friedman, Climate, New York Times, Apr 7, 2018
- Four More Oil Giants Acknowledge Climate Consensus to Federal Judge by Amy Westervelt, Climate Liability News, Apr 6, 2018
Tue Apr 10, 2018
- UN, EU climate chiefs call for ambitious shipping strategy from IMO by Megan Darby, Climate Home News, Apr 9, 2018
- UN Shipping Agency Slammed for Stalling Climate Action by J Nastranis, InDepthNews (IDN), Apr 10, 2018
- California’s Snow Drought Is a Recipe for Danger by Jeremy Deaton, Nexus Media News, Apr 6, 2018
- Forests burn across India as temperatures rise by Juhi Chaudhary, india Climate Dialogue, Apr 4, 2018
- EPA’s war with California proves America needs a carbon tax by Dana Nuccitelli, Climate Consensus - the 97%. Environment, Guardian, Apr 10. 2018
- Concerning': Marine heatwaves increasing, especially near Australia by Peter Hannam, Environment, Sydney Morning Herald, Apr 11, 2018
- Analysis: How much ‘carbon budget’ is left to limit global warming to 1.5C? by Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, Apr 9, 2018
- Climate Change Denialists Say Polar Bears Are Fine. Scientists Are Pushing Back. by Erica Goode, Climate, New York Times, Apr 10, 2018
Wed Apr 11, 2018
- 10 teams advance in international carbon dioxide competition by Mead Gruver, Energy & Environment, AP/Washington Post, Apr 9, 2018
- XPRIZE Projects Aim to Convert CO2 Emissions, but Skepticism Remains by Benjamin Storrow, E&E News/Scientific American, Apr 10, 2018
- Undoing American Climate Diplomacy by Emily Atkin, The New Republic, Apr 11, 2018
- UK supermarket Iceland pledges no palm oil in its own-brand products by Serena Chaudhry, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Apr 10, 2018
- World’s Most Powerful Wind Turbine Installed At Vattenfall’s European Offshore Wind Deployment Centre by Joshua S Hill, Clean Technica, Apr 10, 2018
- Climate Change Is Weakening a Crucial Ocean Current by Eric Betz, Discover Magazine, Apr 11, 2018
- Africa’s vegetation has lost 2.6bn tonnes of CO2 in just seven years by Daisy Dunne, Carbon Brief, Apr 9, 2018
- Oil company allies say climate lawsuits were shopped around by Anne C. Mulkern , E&E News, Apr 10, 2018
Thu Apr 12, 2018
- The Most Important Climate Treaty You’ve Never Heard Of by Sabrina Shankman, InsideClimate News, Apr 11, 2018
- Marine heatwaves have become ‘34% more likely’ over past century by Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, Apr 10, 2018
- Sea Level Rise Poses Huge Threat to California, Heightening Urgency of Liability Cases by Dana Drugmand, Climate Liability News, Apr 11, 2018
- Investor’s Business Daily editorial misrepresents study to claim plants will prevent dangerous climate change by Scott Johnson, Climate Feedback, Apr 12, 2018
- Climate change litigation rising with the seas as victims revert to 'Plan B' by Malcolm Sutton, ABC Radio Adelaide, Apr 9, 2018
- How a small start-up firm wants to revitalize climate change research by Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Apr 9, 2018
- 'Day zero' water crises: Spain, Morocco, India and Iraq at risk as reservoirs shrink by Jonathan Watts, Environment, Guardian, Apr 11, 2018
- Global warming is causing an Alaskan glacier to melt at the fastest pace in 400 years by Doyle Rice, USA Today, Apr 11, 2018
Fri Apr 13, 2018
- Antarctic expedition hopes for Ernest Shackleton bonus by Jonathan Amos, Science & Environment, BBC News, Apr 10, 2018
- New Zealand bans all new offshore oil exploration as part of 'carbon-neutral future' by Eleanor Ainge Roy, Guardian, Apr 11, 2018
- Hurricane Winds at Landfall: A Measurement Challenge by Bob Henson, Category 6, Weather Underground, Apr 11, 2018
- Hurricane Winds at Landfall: Why Is It They Seem to Fall Short? by Bob Henson, Category 6, Weather Underground, Apr 12, 2018
- Climate Change Or Global Warming? Three Reasons Not To Be Distracted By The Name Game by Marshall Sheperd, Science, Forbes, Apr 13, 2018
- A North American Climate Boundary Has Shifted 140 Miles East Due to Global Warming, Yale Environment 360, Apr 11, 2018
- Atlantic ‘conveyor belt’ has slowed by 15% since mid-20th century by Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, Apr 11, 2018
- Avoid Gulf stream disruption at all costs, scientists warn by Damian Carrrington, Environment, Guardian, Apr 13, 2018
Sat Apr 14, 2018
- The shipping industry is finally going to cut its climate change emissions. That’s a big deal. by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Apr 13, 2018
- New satellite to spot planet-warming industrial methane leaks by Damian Carrrington, Environment, Guardian, Apr 12, 2018
- Industry Group Asks SEC to Investigate Cities With Climate Lawsuits by Ucilia Wang, Climate Liability News, Apr 13, 2018
- Massachusetts Investigation of Exxon for Climate Fraud Can Proceed, Court Rules by Karen Savage, Climate Liability News, Apr 13, 2018
- EXECUTIVE PERSPECTIVE: Moody’s Eyes Rise of Sustainable Investor and Climate Risk by Tim Nixon, Sustainability, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Apr 9, 2018
- Explainer: These six metals are key to a low-carbon future by Jocelyn Timperley, Carbon Brief, Apr 12, 2018
- Gigantic water tunnels won’t save Houston from the next Harvey by Eric Holthaus, Grist, Apr 10, 2018
- The real fear behind climate conspiracy theories by Eve Andrews, Grist, Apr 6, 2018
The weakening of the Gulf stream / AMOC is a very concerning development. However some people probably won't be worried, because they simply can't seem to compute that small global temperature changes over time can have severe impacts like this that could reshape climate systems. You see evidence of this in blog commentary.
Perhaps they see large swings of temperature seasonally or diurnally that don't cause problems, and reason form there. Remember Senator Inhofe dumping a snowball on the floor, and proclaiming "theres no global warming" in either an astonishing display of ignorance, or cynical and deliberate avoidance of the issue.
One thing blocking awareness of the severity climate problem is therefore possibly psychological perception of this sort, as well as political ideologies, and vested interests. They probably mutually reinforce each other. I can't think of many other issues in society with so many things blocking understanding and action.
Perhaps if humanity could just focus on a sustainable future and set of related values this would help.
The gulf stream and AMOC is really part of the global thermohaline circulation system as follows.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation
This is a telling event and cool story, which seems to have drawn little attention in the media or community given all the competing events. Anybody that has followed this story for the past decade will have an idea of the potential consequences of a slowdown in the AMOC, and they are significant. The prospects for world seems dismal at this point. I think we're at a low point with lots of competing events drawning our attention.
Is there a rate of change measurement at hand?
bozzza @3,
The two studies that kicked-off this AMOC discussion are Caesar et al (2018) and Thornalley et al (2018). Neither are directly measuring the flow but use either SST data & modelling (there is an illustrative animation of their modelling in this RC post) or proxy paleo-data to infer the past strength of the AMOC. Caeser et al (2018) conclude the AMOC has weakened by around 3 Sv (Sv=milllion cu m/sec). The AMOC is measured today at 17 Sv, so that's a drop of 15% since the mid-20th century. Thornalley et al also put it as approximately 15% but relative to the preceeding 1,500 years, with their proxy data showing a transition occuring by 1900, that is a big big wobble down that has remained down and not wobbled back up.
Of course, such findings don't of themselves say a lot but require comparing firstly with what is expected of the AMOC under AGW (IPCC AR5 put it as 1-24% drop by 2100 under RCP2.6 and 12-54% under RCP8.6, all with the 'low confidence' sticker) and secondly what would be the resulting impact on global climate which is a bit of a big ask as it would all be wrapped up with other AGW impacts. As an example, while Hansen et al (2016) present a dramatic scenario with the AMOC switching off, this is the result of other major climatologial change.