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2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #33
Posted on 18 August 2018 by John Hartz
Editor's Pick
Research Highlight: Climate Model Predicts Faster Warming for the North Atlantic Ocean
As aerosol emissions decline, heat uptake in the North Atlantic could increase dramatically
The Gulf Stream, part of the larger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation system. Photo: NASA
Researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego have predicted faster rates of warming than previously predicted for the North Atlantic Ocean in a recent paper published in the Journal of Climate. This warming could disrupt major oceanic cycles and have worldwide impacts on climate systems.
The researchers modeled scenarios based on possible future greenhouse gas and aerosol emission rates. One likely scenario focuses on future decline in aerosols and continued increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Aerosols are minute particles suspended in the atmosphere. Some scatter sunlight, thereby actually acting as cooling agents.
The aerosol cooling effect is about 50 percent of the warming effect of anthropogenic carbon dioxide at present. Aerosols released from human activities are pollutants, however, and their health concerns have triggered worldwide efforts to curb emissions. An aerosol decline could spark an interesting catch-22: Because of their cooling effect, this decline would accelerate ocean warming that is already being caused by increasing carbon dioxide emissions–most notably initiating major warming in the North Atlantic.
Historically, the Southern Ocean has been the predominant heat absorber, accounting for roughly 72 percent of uptake of anthropogenic greenhouse heat in the oceans, due in part to the area’s low levels of cooling aerosols. The opposite is true of the North Atlantic: under strong aerosol cooling, the North Atlantic has not taken up much heat, meaning that most of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere is happening in the atmosphere and not in the ocean.
“The ocean heat uptake moderates atmospheric warming by storing much of the greenhouse heat below the surface,” said Shang-Ping Xie, a climate researcher at Scripps and co-author of the study. “We now show that the ocean uptake is not only uneven, but its distribution also evolves with time."
Research Highlight: Climate Model Predicts Faster Warming for the North Atlantic Ocean by Chase Martin, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Aug 14, 2018
Links posted on Facebook
Sun Aug 12, 2018
- US Corporate Renewable Energy Procurement Hits Record High by Jake Richardson, Clean Technica, Aug 10, 2018
- ‘The world is losing the war on climate change’ by Maarten van Aalst, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Aug 10, 2018
- Putting 5 Million Electric Cars on California Roads Wouldn't Overwhelm Power Grid: Report by Amel Ahmed, KQED Science, Aug 6, 2018
- Trump’s Climate Withdrawal Is An Impeachable Offense, Opinion by Marjorie Cohn, HuffPost, Aug 6, 2018
- India to step up use of biofuels to cut oil import bill by Nidhi Verma, Reuters, Aug 10, 2018
- Salting the earth: North Dakota farmers struggle with a toxic byproduct of the oil boom by Likhitha Butchireddygari, NBC News, Aug 11, 2018
- We're dangerously unprepared for the heat crisis from climate change, Opinion by Irwin Redlener & Jackie Ratner, CNN, Aug 11, 2018
- Ignore the climate change deniers. California's hellish summer really is a grave warning by Steve Lopez, Los Angeles Times, Aug 11, 2018
Mon Aug 13, 2018
- Black Widow Spiders Are Heading North Due To Climate Change by Abbey Interrante, Newsweek, Aug 11, 2018
- Nature Conservancy sees an opportunity to fight climate change – using Maine’s woodlands by Kevin Miller, Portland Press Herald, Aug 12, 2018
- The Best Medicine for My Climate Grief, Commentary by Peter Kalmus, Yes! Magazine, Aug 9, 2018
- Caribbean states and billionaire Branson launch green fund to fight disasters by Sebastien Malo, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Aug 10, 2018
- Trump reignited his war with California, but his Tweet got burned by Dana Nuccitelli, Climate Consensus -the 97%, Environment, Guardian, Aug 13, 2018
- What Are Coastal Nuclear Power Plants Doing to Address Climate Threats? by John Vidal, Ensia, Aug 8, 2018
- The 2004 lecture that finally convinced David Attenborough about global warming by Leo Hickman, Carbon Brief, Aug 13, 2018
- Facing $17 Billion in Fire Damages, a CEO Blames Climate Change by Mark Chediak, New Economy Forum, Bloomberg News, Aug 13, 2018
Tue Aug 14, 2018
- Searing heat could make countries in North Africa and along the Persian Gulf unlivable by Charlene Gubash, NBC News, Aug 12, 2018
- Glacier National Park Is on Fire by Kaleigh Rodgers, Motherboard, Aug 13, 2018
- Climate Change Got You Down? Let’s Talk, The Revelator (Center for Biological Diversity), Aug 13, 2018
- America Burns From Climate Change While Trump Officials Attend Climate Denial Conference by Andy Rowell, EcoWatch, Aug 13, 2018
- Youtube now adds facts below conspiracy theory videos by Mihai Andrei, ZME Science, Aug 13, 2018
- The US’ hidden methane problem by Mark Olalde, Climate Home, Aug 13, 2018
- Unexpected effects of climate change: worse food safety, more car wrecks by Susan Scutti, CNN, Aug 13, 2018
- Activists plan marches, murals ahead of Gov. Brown’s climate summit by Ian Williams, San Francisco Examiner, Aug 8, 2018
Wed Aug 15, 2018
- Jakarta, the fastest-sinking city in the world by Mayuri Mei Lin & Rafki Hidayat, BBC News, Aug 13, 2018
- What does ‘mean’ actually mean? by Kevin C, Climate Lab/Skeptical Science, Aug 14, 2018
- 'It can’t get much hotter ... can it?' How heat became a national US problem by Oliver Milman, Environmnet, Guardian, Aug 14, 2018
- No break for drought-hit areas as new research points to warmer years by Peter Hannam, Environment, Sydney Morning Herald, Aug 15, 2018
- Humans are pushing the Earth closer to a climate cliff by John Abraham, Climate Consensus -the 97%, Environment, Guardian, Aug 15, 2018
- How climate change is making ‘red tide’ algal blooms even worse by Angela Fritz, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Aug 15, 2018
- The West is on fire ... again by Umair Urfan, Energy & Environment, Vox, Aug 14, 2018
Thu Aug 16, 2018
- The end of the oceans by James Bradley, The Monthly, Aug 2018 Edition
- With half the planet saved for nature, will we have enough to eat? by Brandon Keim, Anthropocene, Aug 15, 2018
- Federal Judge: Employees Can Pursue Climate Fraud Suit Against Exxon by Karen Savage, Climate Liability News, Aug 15, 2018
- Why Ravaging Heatwaves Matter to World’s Dinner Table by Agnieszka De Sousa, Bloomberg News, Aug 14, 2018
- The EPA refuted its own bizarre justification for rolling back fuel efficiency standards by Umair Irfan, Energy & Environment, Vox, Aug 16, 2018
- Ryan Zinke blames ‘environmental terrorist groups’ for severity of California wildfires by Erin B Logan, Post Nation, Washington Post, Aug 16, 2018
- The next five years will be ‘anomalously warm,’ scientists predict by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Aug 14, 2018
- Not just land heat waves: Oceans are in hot water, too by Christina Larson, AP Science Writer, Rochester First, Aug 15, 2018
Fri Aug 17, 2018
- Mineral created in lab that can remove CO2 pollution from atmosphere by Josh Gabbatiss, The Independent (UK), Aug 15, 2018
- Capitalism can crack climate change. But only if it takes risks, Opinion by Larry Elliott, Comment is Free, Guardian, Aug 16, 2018
- What if Mother Nature Is on the Ballot in 2020?, Opinion by Thomas L Friedman, New York Times, Aug 14, 2018
- Rick Perry tells the truth about energy subsidies, contradicting his boss by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Aug 15, 2018
- Which cities are liveable without air conditioning – and for how much longer by Nolan Gray & Antonio Voce, Cities, Guardian, Aug 14, 2018
- Restricting global warming to 1.5C would ‘halve’ risk of marine heatwaves by Daisy Dunne, Carbon Brief, Aug 15, 2018
- Fuzzy math could doom Trump’s attack on Obama climate rule by Alex Guillén & Emily Holden, Politico, Aug 16, 2018
- Enter the dragon: China's renewables growth goes global by Simon Nichols, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Aug 16, 2018
Sat Aug 18, 2018
- Rains pile misery on India's flooded Kerala state as toll rises to 164 by Sivaram Venkitasubramanian & Gopakumar Warrier, Reuters, Aug 17, 2018
- In a Warming World, the Fight for Water Can Push Nations Apart or Pull Them Together by Naveena Sadasivam, Zoë Schlanger, Daniel Wolfe & David Yanofsky, Texas Observer/Quartz, Aug, 2018
- US interior secretary's school friend blocking climate research, scientists say by Mallory Pickett, Guardian, Aug 17, 2018
- Amid fires and hurricanes, price of climate change begins to hit home by Laurent Belsie, Business, Christian Science Monitor, Aug 16, 2018
- Research Highlight: Climate Model Predicts Faster Warming for the North Atlantic Ocean by Chase Martin, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Aug 14, 2018
- Ants, acorns and climate change by Mike Scott, The Daily, Case Western Reserve University (Ohio), Aug 17, 2017
- Red hot planet: This summer’s punishing and historic heat in 7 maps and charts by Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Aug 17, 2018
- Science, Health Leaders Lay Out Evidence Against EPA’s 'Secret Science' Rule by Marianne Lavelle, InsideClimate News, Aug 15, 2018
With ocean warming there is going to be more evaporation and a higher specific humidity and this will increase snow melting. People might find it strange that the albedo of fresh snow is 0.90 or so (it reflects about 90% of solar radiation and only absorbs about 10%), yet the absorptivity of snow can be about 99% (absorbs 99% of the radiation falling on it). The albedo refers to absorptivity of sunlight (solar energy) and the absorptivity here refers to the absorptivity of the usual radiation (about 3 microns to 100 microns in wavelength) from objects on earth. So snow acts almost like a blackbody concerning normal temperature objects around it, absorbing practically all radiation received from surroundings, but is a good reflector of sunlight (reflecting about 95% of solar energy). The atmosphere radiates mostly radiation of wavelengths from about 5 to 8 microns in wavelength and from about above 14 microns. So practically all radiation from the atmosphere is absorbed by snow and most radiation from the sun is reflected by snow. Because atmospheric radiation is increasing I am saying we are going to see rapid melting of snow and ice. I have free Delphi code for night radiative cooling at www.facebook.com/DelphCode/. So solar absorptivity of snow could be about 0.1 and absorptivity for snow for the normal radiation from objects at the earth's surface could be about 0.99. The "downwelling sky radiation code" at the above site could help you determine whether snow will melt at night.
On the other hand, in the short term, there could be short periods of severe cooling of the Atlantic as the warmer conditions greatly accelerate the melting of Greenland and the more mobile ice exits the Arctic ocean in larger amounts. The corollary is that tropical waters will warm up as the heat is not exported to the north with some very nasty stroms as a result.
Good comments Swayseeker, but wouldn't evaporation from warming oceans primarily cause more snow to form rather than to melt?
Hi Nigelj
It is an interesting balance. If humid air rises from the ocean and blows accross to Greenland, indeed this could result in more snow. On the other hand, The specific heat of the phase change from water vapor to water is about 5 times as great as the heat of the phase change from ice to water. In other words, a liter of water condensing out of air which is warmer than the ice it comes in contact with gives out enough heat to melt 5kg of ice. Moreover, if this contact occurs, let's say, at the top of Greenland, 3km above sea level, and the air is made more dense by the cooling effect of the ice, air density currents are created with the denser air pouring down the sloping ice. From 3km up to sea level the compression of the air would heat up the air almost 30 degrees C. Of course it wouldn't actually heat up. This heat would be given up to the ice, melting more ice. A fascinating problem in balancing temperature, pressure latent heat and wind direction. My guess would be more snow initially but at some point hugely increased melting of Greenland.