Comments 1 to 5:

1. ubrew12 at 05:07 AM on 21 October, 2018

   I enjoyed and call attention to 'How A Viking Swimming With A Sheep Led To Climate Change Denial'.  It's a powerful reminder of how people who desperately wish something to be true (in this case, the Medieval Warm Period) will inflate any possible evidence into a 'proof'.  Apparently, it was recorded that in the 10th century, a Greenland Viking swam to a neighbor island to get a sheep, then swam back.  Clearly, the World was quite warm back then, because Greenland is the World.  Also, a 10th century book of Viking lore, which includes accounts of mermen giving prophecies, and witches luring fish into their baskets, should be taken literally as a serious account of Viking history. 

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2. nigelj at 06:01 AM on 21 October, 2018

   Imho the new IPCC report on 1.5 degrees could turn out to be a damp fizzer with little impact. It is good science with a welcome sense of urgency, but I doubt it will have the impact hoped for, because numbers like 1.5 degrees, and 2 degrees and a difference of 100mm in sea level rise wont sound terribly dangerous to the average person. Regulars on this website understand the difference is serious, but others might not.

   I think equal attention needs to be placed on IPCC worst case scenario projections that warming could potentially reach about 12 degrees C by the year 2300 if we go on burning fossil fuels , because this number is genuinely scary and without needing too much detailed explanation of why. While we know people struggle with comprehending and responding to longer term issues, the year 2300 is just not that far away.

   I know the IPCC prefer to avoid long term time frames in case it creates a sense of complacency, and the modelling is less certain, but I think that is a mistake. You need to scare people with hard numbers like 12 degrees, and massive sea level rise, not things like 100mm of sea level rise and desperately hyping its significance.

   Happy to be criticised if you think I'm wrong.

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3. Evan at 07:38 AM on 21 October, 2018

   nigelj@2 I always enjoy reading your responses and bouncing ideas off of you.

   I like your optimism, but what dampens my optimism is that a person can see evidence all over the place that smoking is dangerous to their health, but not be able to kick the habit for a variety of reasons. The evidence we have with personal behavior is that even when people perceive a clear and present danger of particular lifestyle choices, they persist in destructive habits for a variety of reasons. Kicking the fossil-fuel habit will not be easy. I state this emphatically, because whereas I perceive the dangers as you do, I know how hard it is for myself to change my lifestyle to comply with warnings of the IPCC.

   But we agree that we must keep pushing forward in the direction that the IPCC is laying out for us. There is no option but to push forward in that direction.

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4. nigelj at 09:28 AM on 21 October, 2018

   Evan @3, well thanks! And I enjoy bouncing ideas off you and others.

   I try to be optimistic because we need hope, but my natural character is somewhat pessimistic and cynical.

   Yes kicking fossil fuels will not be easy. It is a form of addiction I think and people will ignore even the most obvious dangers when addicted. But people do give up addictions, and all we really need is enough people to give up to create forward momentum.

   I think a lot of different things have combined to make it hard to deal with the climate problem, but that is not a reason to give up trying. One of the main ones is no individual wants to take strong action unless they see everyone taking action so we have a sort of locked up situation, and its not actually economically rational to make huge self sacrifices if you are alone or in a minority. This is why I think something like carbon tax and dividend is important, because it pushes everyone at once, if that makes some sense.

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5. Evan at 09:37 AM on 21 October, 2018

   nigelj@4 I concur with your sentiments and your assessment. We have to keep pushing whereever and however we can. Carbon tax would be great!

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