Posted on 12 July 2020 by John Hartz

Story of the Week...

Global temperatures could exceed crucial 1.5 C target in the next five years

In this aerial view melting ice forms a lake on free-floating ice jammed into the Ilulissat Icefjord during unseasonably warm weather on July 30, 2019 near Ilulissat, Greenland. In 2020, the Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice the global mean, a new assessment by the WMO found.

There is an increasing chance that annual global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels over the next five years, new climate predictions from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) say.

Under the 2015  Paris climate accord, countries committed to reduce their carbon output and halt global warming below 2 degrees Celsius — and if possible, below 1.5 degrees Celsius — by the end of the century to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

But according to the WMO report, there is around a 20% chance that one of the next five years will be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, with the chance "increasing with time."

Annual global temperature is likely to be at least 1 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, and the last five years has been the warmest on record, the assessment — based on modeling and the expertise of climate scientists — found.

In 2020, the Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice the global mean, and many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than in the recent past, the WMO said.

There is a 70% chance that one or more months during the next five years will be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, the WMO assessment said.

In the coming five years, almost all regions are likely to be warmer than the recent past, scientists warned.

Click here to access the entire article as originally posted on the CNN website. 

Global temperatures could exceed crucial 1.5 C target in the next five years by Amy Woodyatt, CNN, July 9, 2020

Toon of the Week...

Hat tip to the Stop Climate Science Denial Facebook page.

Climate Feedback Article Review...

Article by Michael Shellenberger mixes accurate and inaccurate claims in support of a misleading and overly simplistic argumentation about climate change

Analysis of "On Behalf Of Environmentalists, I Apologize For The Climate Scare"
Published in Forbes, by Michael Shellenberger on 28 June 2020

Six scientists analysed the article and estimate its overall scientific credibility to be 'low'.

A majority of reviewers tagged the article as: Cherry-picking, Misleading.

Article by Michael Shellenberger mixes accurate and inaccurate claims in support of a misleading and overly simplistic argumentation about climate change, Edited by Nikki Forrester, Article Reviews, Climate Feedback, July 6. 2020

Coming Soon on SkS...

• How the rise and fall of CO2 levels influenced the ice ages (Zeke Hausfather)
• On baseball's 'first pitch' and climate's long road ahead (Bud Ward)
• SkS New Research for Week #28 (Doug Bostrom)
• Wildfires off to slow start in much of the West, but trouble expected starting in mid-July (Jeff Masters)
• Will Fusion Power solve Climate Change? (Climate Adam)
• 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29 (John Hartz)
• 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #29 (John Hartz)

Climate Feedback Claim Review...

Study evaluates natural and human causes of recent rapid warming rate at the South Pole 

CLAIM: Surface air temperatures at the bottom of the world have risen three times faster than the global average since the 1990s.

VERDICT: 

SOURCE: Even the South Pole Is Warming, and Quickly, Scientists Say by Henry Fountain, Climate, New York Times, June 29, 2020

KEY TAKE AWAY: This statement accurately describes data analyzed in a recently published scientific study. As the article also explains, that study concluded that the temperature trend at this specific location was boosted by natural variability, and is not representative of the current human-caused climate change across Antarctica. 

Study evaluates natural and human causes of recent rapid warming rate at the South Pole, Edited by Scott Johnson, Claim Reviews, Climate Feedback, July 6, 2020

SkS Week in Review... 

• 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #28 by John Hartz (SkS Original)
• Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air by Damian Carrington (The Guardian Repost)
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #27, 2020 by Doug Bostrom (SkS Original)
• Saharan dust cloud was most intense in decades, and more, though milder, are coming by Jeff Masters (Yale Climate Connections Repost)
• IEA: Coronavirus ‘accelerating closure’ of ageing fossil-fuelled power plants by Josh Gabbatiss (Carbon Brief Repost)
• 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #27 by John Hartz (SkS Original)

Poster of the Week...