Arguments
2022 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52
Posted on 31 December 2022 by , John Hartz
Story of the Week
Overshooting climate targets could significantly increase risk for tipping cascades
12/22/2022 - Temporarily overshooting the climate targets of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius could increase the tipping risk of several Earth system elements by more than 70 percent compared to keeping global warming in line with the United Nations Paris Agreement range, a new risk analysis study by an international team of researchers shows. This tipping risk increases even if in the longer term the global temperature would stabilize within the Paris range. Avoiding an overshoot would hence limit the risks, the researchers conclude.
Map of the four interacting climate tipping elements. Each arrow represents a physical interaction mechanism between a pair of tipping elements, which can be destabilizing (denoted as +), stabilizing (denoted as −) or unclear (denoted as ±). AMAZ, Amazon rainforest; GIS, Greenland Ice Sheet; WAIS, West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
“We show that the risk for some tipping events could increase very substantially under certain global warming overshoot scenarios,” explains Nico Wunderling, scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and lead-author of the study to be published in Nature Climate Change. “Even if we would manage to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees after an overshoot of more than two degrees, this would not be enough as the risk of triggering one or more global tipping points would still be more than 50 percent. With more warming in the long-term, the risks increase dramatically.”
“To effectively prevent all tipping risks, the global mean temperature increase would need to be limited to no more than one degree – we are currently already at about 1.2 degrees,“ Jonathan Donges, Co-Lead of the FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene at PIK adds. “The latest IPCC report is showing that we’re most likely on a path to temporarily overshoot the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature threshold.”
Click here to access the entire press release as originally posted on the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) website.
Overshooting climate targets could significantly increase risk for tipping cascades, Press Office, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Dec 22, 2022
Also see: Temporary warming over 2°C may cause cascading tipping events by Alison Bosman, News, Earth.com, Dec 29, 2022 This article is based upon the above PIK press release.
Links posted on Facebook
Sun, Dec 25, 2022
- Holiday Traditions in the Forest Revive Spiritual Relationships with Nature, and Heal Planetary Wounds by Bob Berwyn, Science, Inside Climate News, Dec 24, 2022
Mon, Dec 26, 2022
- Clickbait Greenland Ice Headline is Misleading by Peter Sinclair, Climate Denial Crock of the Week, Dec 26, 2022
- How Global Warming Makes it Freezing Cold by Thom Hartman, The Hartman Report, Dec26, 2022
Tue, Dec 27, 2022
- The Moon landing was faked, and wind farms are bad by Diana Gitig, Nature Energy/Ars Technica, Dec 12, 2022
- Subpoenaed Fossil Fuel Documents Reveal an Industry Stuck in the Past by Amy Westervelt, Voices, The Intercept, Dec 24, 2022
- Overshooting climate targets could significantly increase risk for tipping cascades, Press Office, PIK, Dec 22, 2022
Wed, Dec 28, 2022
- Startup Claims It's Sending Sulfur Into the Atmosphere to Fight Climate Change by Lauren Leffer, Earther, Gizmodo, Dec 27, 2022
- Consider the climate crisis: The best of the Bulletin’s 2022 coverage by Jessica McKenzie, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Dec 26, 2022
- Victor Venema 1971 - 2022 by Miriam O'Brien & Ken Rice, Skeptical Science, Dec 28, 2022
Thu, Dec 29, 2022
- Climate change won't make winter storms and blizzards go away. Scientists explain why. by Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA Today, Dec 27, 2022
- Most Hopeful Climate Story of the Year: Cleaning Up the Airline Industry by Liza Featherstone, Apocalypse Now, The New Republic, Dec 28, 2022Fri, Dec 30, 2022
- ‘I am an optimistic person’: the scientist who studies climate catastrophes by Sandra Laville, Environment, The Guardian, Dec 29, 2022
Fri, Dec 30, 2022
- These lies about climate change just wouldn't die in 2022 by Elizabeth Weise, Nation, USA Today, Dec 29, 2022
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #52 2022 by Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack, Skeptical Science, Dec 29, 2022
- 2022 in review: Multi-lingual Cranky Uncle and other happenings at Skeptical Science by Bärbel Winkler, Skeptical Science, Dec 30, 2022
Sat, Dec 31, 2022
- How ocean wind power could help the oil industry by Terry Jones & Pam Radtke, Louisiana Illuminator, Dec 30, 2022
- Temporary warming over 2°C may cause cascading tipping events by Alison Bosman, News, Earth.com, Dec 29, 2022
- When you teach climate change, the Writing’s on the Wall by Marcy Burstiner, News Decoder, Dec 13, 2022
Comments