Climate Science Glossary

Term Lookup

Enter a term in the search box to find its definition.

Settings

Use the controls in the far right panel to increase or decrease the number of terms automatically displayed (or to completely turn that feature off).

Term Lookup

Term:

Settings

Beginner Intermediate Advanced No Definitions Definition Life:

All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

Myth Deconstruction - Lag (EN)

Reference

Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors
Cook, J., Ellerton, P., & Kinkead, D. (2018). Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors. Environmental Research Letters, 13(2), 024018. Link to PDF & Link to Supplement

Step-by-step deconstruction

The table below is inspired by the simplified supplement and may differ slightly from what is shown in the GIF. This is mostly due to make the text fit into the available space which made it necessary to reword some of it.

Identify claim

Atmospheric CO₂ lagged behind temperature changes in the past, so rising CO₂ can't be the cause of rising temperatures.

Argument structure

Premise 1: If CO₂ causes global warming, then CO₂ variations should precede temperature variations.
Premise 2: CO₂ lags temperature in the past.
Conclusion: CO₂ cannot be the cause of global warming.

Inferential Intent

Deduction

Validity

VALID

Hidden premises

NONE

Check premises

Premise 1 is false: false choice. While it is true that CO₂ causes global warming, that doesn't mean global warming might not also lead to increased CO₂ in the atmosphere. Moreover, increases in global temperatures can lead to the release of large amounts of CO₂, which then exacerbates the process. The relationship between to two is therefore not so simple.

Premise 2 is false: slothful induction. While it is true in the Antarctic ice core record that CO₂ lags temperature, it is not the case in Greenland ice cores or tropical ocean sediment cores. Consequently, it's false to say that CO₂ always lags temperature. It's a regional phenomena restricted to Antarctica.

Status of claim

FALSE
The argument is valid but the premises are false.

Summary of fallacies

False choice: While it is true that CO₂ causes global warming, that doesn't mean global warming might not also lead to increased CO₂ in the atmosphere. Just because a chicken comes from an egg doesn't mean eggs don't come from chickens—both are true. Similarly, CO₂ causes warming and warming causes more CO₂. The two combined comprise a reinforcing feedback.

Slothful induction: While CO₂ lags temperature in the Antarctic ice core record, that is not the case in Greenland ice cores or tropical ocean sediment cores. Consequently, it's false to say that CO₂ always lags temperature. It's a regional phenomena restricted to Antarctica.

Related material

Blog post with background information about the myth deconstructions: Myth deconstructions as animated gifs

Other versions

Climate Science Glossary

Term Lookup

Settings

Term Lookup

Settings

Latest Posts

Myth Deconstruction - Lag (EN)

Reference

Step-by-step deconstruction

Related material

Other versions