Arguments
New research, September 18-24, 2017
Posted on 29 September 2017 by Ari Jokimäki
A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below. The graphic is from Lamsal et al. (paper #32).
Climate change
1. Inconsistent subsurface and deeper ocean warming signals during recent global warming and hiatus
"In general, the global SDO has sequestered a significant amount of heat – about 3.50*1022 joules with trends of 0.59 W m−2 on average among the four datasets – during the recent hiatus, demonstrating widespread and significant warming signals in the global SDO." (SDO = Subsurface and Deeper Ocean.)
"The rapid Indian Ocean warming during the early-21th century was a major heat sink for the recent global surface warming slowdown. Analysis of observational data and ocean model experiments reveals that during 2003-2012 more than half of the increased upper Indian Ocean heat content was concentrated in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), causing a warming “hotspot” of 0.8-1.2 K decade-1 near the west coast of Australia." ... "Large-ensemble climate model simulations suggest that this warming event was likely also exacerbated by anthropogenic forcing and thus unprecedentedly strong as compared to previous IPO transition periods."
3. Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C
"If CO2 emissions are continuously adjusted over time to limit 2100 warming to 1.5 °C, with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation, net future cumulative CO2 emissions are unlikely to prove less than 250 GtC and unlikely greater than 540 GtC. Hence, limiting warming to 1.5 °C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation."
4. More-Persistent Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex States Linked to Cold Extremes
"Using hierarchical clustering, we show that over the last 37 years, the frequency of weak vortex states in mid to late winter (January and February) has increased which were accompanied by subsequent cold extremes in mid-latitude Eurasia. For this region 60% of the observed cooling in the era of Arctic amplification, i.e. since 1990, can be explained by the increased frequency of weak stratospheric polar vortex states, a number which increases to almost 80% when El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is included as well."
5. Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil
"The performed analysis reveals the existence of positive and significant trends in HW frequency since the 1980s, particularly for the cities of São Paulo, Manaus, and Recife."
"The results suggest that Antarctic sea ice expansion is mostly explained by trends in the thermodynamic surface forcing, notably cooling and drying and a reduction in longwave radiation. Similarly, thermodynamic forcing is found to be the main driver of the zonal SST cooling trend. While apparently less influential on sea ice extent and SST, wind stress plays a key role in sea ice motion, thickening coastal sea ice, and thinning and decreasing the concentration of ice in mid-pack regions of the Amundsen-eastern Ross seas and 65–95°E in winter-spring."
7. CO2-Induced Ocean Warming of the Antarctic Continental Shelf in an Eddying Global Climate Model
8. Impacts of recent warming and the 2015/16 El Niño on tropical Peruvian ice fields
9. Fingerprints of Sea-Level Rise on Changing Tides in the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays
13. The role of microbes in snowmelt and radiative forcing on an Alaskan icefield
17. Methods and model dependency of extreme event attribution: The 2015 European drought
18. Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012
19. Warming and wetting climate during last century revealed by an ice core in northwest Tibetan Plateau
20. Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans
22. Relative humidity has uneven effects onshifts from snow to rain over the Western U.S.
23. Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization: An updated assessment
24. Post-stagnation retreat of Kamb Ice Stream's grounding zone
31. Tropical ocean contributions to California’s surprisingly dry El Niño of 2015-16
Climate change impacts
32. The greening of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau under climate change
"Highlights
• Climatic suitability of the nine Himalayan tree-line species will expand towards higher elevation into areas that are currently unsuitable.
- • The total climatic suitable areas will increase in the future compared to the current period.
- • High elevation belts will see more climatic suitability.
- • Cold stress is the main limiting factor for the current and future distribution of the investigated species."
33. Adaptation to climate change and freshwater resources in Vusama village, Viti Levu, Fiji
"In particular, prolonged drought and changing seasonal patterns, together with people’s increasing reliance on a village borehole in lieu of family wells have resulted in a freshwater crisis. People are coping by using earnings from wage employment and harvesting and selling seafood to buy water and vegetables, rationing freshwater and depending on extended social networks for fresh produce."
"Our results indicate that weather-induced losses vary by state with excessive moisture resulting in the highest total number of claims across all Midwestern states followed by freeze and drought events. Overall, specialty crop growers are aware of the increased production risk under a changing climate and have identified the need for crop-specific weather, production, and financial risk management tools and increased crop insurance coverage."
39. Plant resistance to drought depends on timely stomatal closure
41. Ecological performance of construction materials subject to ocean climate change
42. Climate variability affects the germination strategies exhibited by arid land plants
44. Effects of shrub and tree cover increase on the near-surface atmosphere in northern Fennoscandia
46. Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal
Climate change mitigation
"Our results indicate that modest to rigorous behavioural change could reduce per capita footprint emissions by 6 to 16%, out of which one fourth will take place outside the EU, predominantly by reducing land use change. The domestic emission savings would contribute to reduce the costs of achieving the internationally agreed climate goal of the EU by 13.5 to 30%. Moreover, many of these options would also yield co-benefits such as monetary savings, positive health impacts or animal wellbeing."
48. For wind turbines in complex terrain, the devil is in the detail
"We find that the mean wind, wind shear and turbulence level are extremely sensitive to the exact details of the terrain: a small modification of the edge of our scale model, results in a reduction of the estimated annual energy production by at least 50% and an increase in the turbulence level by a factor of five in the worst-case scenario with the most unfavorable wind direction."
49. Making sense of climate engineering: a focus group study of lay publics in four countries
"With few exceptions, participants largely expressed negative views of large-scale deliberate intervention in climate systems as a means to address anthropogenic global warming."
50. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?
52. Carbon tax effects on the poor: a SAM-based approach
53. Global assessment of shipping emissions in 2015 on a high spatial and temporal resolution
54. Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures
56. Climate mitigation by dairy intensification depends on intensive use of spared grassland
58. Past and future carbon sequestration benefits of China’s grain for green program
59. What policies improve forest cover? A systematic review of research from Mesoamerica
Other papers
"Rather than a coincidence, we postulate that halogen-catalyzed stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica triggered large-scale atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate changes similar to the modern Antarctic ozone hole, explaining the synchronicity and abruptness of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation."
61. Atmospheric methane control mechanisms during the early Holocene
63. Special issue on earth observation of essential climate variables
64. Solar signal on regional scale: A study of possible solar impact upon Romania's climate
65. Influence of solar variability on the occurrence of central European weather types from 1763 to 2009
67. Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to interglacial climate forcing: MIS 5e versus MIS 11
68. Characterizing Sources of Uncertainty from Global Climate Models and Downscaling Techniques
How do you keep up with it? Thank you for the effort.
Thanks! I use a RSS feed reader where I have included new paper feeds of about 90 journals.