Arguments
New research, October 2-8, 2017
Posted on 13 October 2017 by Ari Jokimäki
A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.
Climate change
1. Comment on “Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO2 residence time in the atmosphere” by H. Harde
"As we will show, this alternative scheme is too simple, is based on invalid assumptions, and does not address many of the key processes involved in the global carbon cycle that are important on the timescale of interest. Harde (2017) therefore reaches an incorrect conclusion about the role of anthropogenic CO2 emissions."
"Finally, from data covering the last 2.1 Myr we show that — due to state dependency — the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity which considers radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice sheet (LI) albedo ... is larger during interglacial states than during glacial conditions by more than a factor two."
3. Heavy precipitation is highly sensitive to the magnitude of future warming
"We find that the frequency of annual heavy precipitation at a global scale increases in both 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios until around 2070, after which the magnitudes of the trend become much weaker or even negative."
4. Midlatitude summer drying : An underestimated threat in CMIP5 models?
"Here, several aridity indices and a two-tier attribution strategy are used to demonstrate that a summer mid-latitude drying has recently emerged over the northern continents, which is mainly attributable to anthropogenic climate change. This emerging signal is shown to be the harbinger of a long-term drying in the CMIP5 projections. Linear trends in the observed aridity indices can therefore be used as observational constraints and suggest that the projected mid-latitude summer drying was underestimated by most CMIP5 models."
5. Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge
"We estimate low probabilities of detection when substantial but gradual changes to the 100-year storm surge occur. As a result, policy makers may underestimate considerable increases in storm surge risk over the typically long lifespans of major infrastructure projects."
8. Nearshore wave power increase on reef shaped coasts due to sea-level rise
10. Decadal climate variability and the spatial organization of deep hydrological drought
11. Projected response of low-level convergence and associated precipitation to greenhouse warming
12. Australia's unprecedented future temperature extremes under Paris limits to warming
13. The role of circulation and land surface conditions in current and future Australian heat waves
14. Elucidating the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols In the Arctic Sea Ice Variations
15. Low-Frequency Climate Modes and Antarctic Sea Ice Variations, 1982-2013
16. Antarctica-Regional Climate and Surface Mass Budget
20. The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling
22. The Response of Local Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure to Hadley Cell Expansion
23. Temperature Control of the Variability of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cirrus Clouds
24. A role of the Atlantic Ocean in predicting summer surface air temperature over North East Asia?
25. Global Tidal Impacts of Large-Scale Ice-Sheet Collapses
26. A Meteoric Water Budget for the Arctic Ocean
27. Decadal Change of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon Break around 2002/03
30. Temporal evolution of the spatial covariability of rainfall in South America
31. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming
33. Assessing climatic trends of extreme rainfall indices over northeast Bangladesh
34. Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles
35. Can atmospheric reanalysis datasets be used to reproduce flooding over large scales?
36. Global Response of Clear-Air Turbulence to Climate Change
Climate change impacts
"Results reveal that the association between adverse climate conditions and migration is positive only for wealthy migrant-sending districts. In contrast, poor districts are characterized by climate-related immobility. Yet, our findings show that access to migrant networks enables climate-related mobility in the poorest districts, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints."
"Our work has shown that the water volume in about 30% of the springs has decreased over the last decade. The springs located in mid-elevation with discharge less than 5 liters per minute are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The 2015 Nepal earthquake had a huge and immediate impact on the water volume of the springs in our study with an immediate drying effect in about 18% of the springs."
"Results suggest that the economic effects of climate change will not have serious economic effects over the period up to late 2030s, but the negative effects dominate the economy in the second half of this century. This provides Turkey an excellent opportunity to increase resilience and implement appropriate adaptation policies. The impact of climate change varies across regions. Agriculture and food production will be heavily affected. Especially irrigated production will decline as water stress increases."
41. Analysis of flash flood disaster characteristics in China from 2011 to 2015
42. Representation of Indigenous peoples in climate change reporting
43. Disentangling competitive versus climatic drivers of tropical forest mortality
45. Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios
46. The ozone-climate penalty in the Midwestern U.S.
47. Quantifying antecedent climatic drivers of tree growth in the Southwestern US
48. A Case Study on Power Outage Impacts from Future Hurricane Sandy Scenarios
57. Spatio-temporal flowering patterns in Mediterranean Poaceae. A community study in SW Spain
Climate change mitigation
60. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?
"Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110–285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80–300 million people in 2050."
"Results indicate that US households are willing to pay an additional $3.66 per year in increased taxes to prevent increases in GHG emissions due to proposed re-purposing."
62. How China’s nitrogen footprint of food has changed from 1961 to 2010
64. The role of coal technology in redefining India's climate change agents and other pollutants
65. Decomposing the anthropogenic causes of climate change
66. The effect of group size on energy consumption by communal electricity users
Other papers
67. Combined effects of atmospheric and seafloor iron fluxes to the glacial ocean
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