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New research, November 20-26, 2017
Posted on 1 December 2017 by Ari Jokimäki
A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.
Figure is from paper #6.
Climate change
1. Acceleration in the global mean sea level rise: 2005-2015
"Our results show that the acceleration during the last decade (0.27 ± 0.17 mm/yr2) is about three times faster than its value during 1993–2014. The acceleration comes from three factors, i.e. 0.04 ± 0.01 mm/yr2 (~15%) by land ice melting, 0.12 ± 0.06 mm/yr2 (~44%) by thermal expansion of the sea water, and 0.11 ± 0.02 mm/yr2 (~41%) by declining land water storage."
2. Relationship between ocean carbon and heat multi-decadal variability
"Although the magnitude and frequency of variability in global heat and carbon content is different across the model simulations, there is a robust anti-correlation between global heat and carbon content in all simulations."
"The year 2015 appeared as a paradox regarding how global carbon cycle has responded to climate variation: it is the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observation, but the atmospheric CO2 growth rate is also the highest since 1959. We found that this is due to a only moderate land carbon sink, because high growing-season sink in northern lands has been partly offset by autumn and winter release and the late-year El Niño has led to an abrupt transition to land source in the tropics."
4. Influence of Global Warming on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensities during 2015
"Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Niño is negligible. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continued multidecadal warming."
"Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) formed over the western part of the western North Pacific (WWNP) pose greater coastal risk than those formed over the eastern part (EWNP). Here we show that the proportion of intense TCs relative to all TCs (PITC) locally formed over the WWNP west of 140E has almost doubled since the late 1970s. However, that over the EWNP has experienced little change. This sharp west-east contrast is primarily driven by the La Nina-like sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the Pacific, identified as the mega-ENSO in previous studies. The strong warming in the WWNP has contributed greatly to the increased PITC while the dynamical conditions associated with the intensified mega-ENSO play a vital opposite role in offsetting and even overweighting the effect of local SST warming over the EWNP."
"81% of glaciers studied showed considerable loss of volume over the period of record. The mean annual mass loss for all glaciers yielded 0.24 ± 0.08 m.w.e. per year, with a maximum mass loss of up to 62 m.w.e. and frontal retreat exceeding 2.2 km for Stadium Glacier, located furthest north on Elephant Island. Observed volumetric loss was broadly, though not always, correlated with frontal retreat. The combined mass balance of all 16 glaciers yielded − 1.862 ± 0.006 Gt, which corresponds to − 0.005 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) over the 57 year observation period."
7. Quantifying the uncertainties in an ensemble of decadal climate predictions
9. Winter Eurasian cooling linked with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
10. Results of the first Arctic Heat Open Science Experiment
11. The role of snow in the thickening processes of lake ice at Lake Abashiri, Hokkaido, Japan
13. Antarctic grounding line mapping from CryoSat-2 radar altimetry
16. Sensitivity of simulated South America climate to the land surface schemes in RegCM4
21. Anomalies of hydrological cycle components during the 2007 heat wave in Bulgaria
22. Diagnosing Human-Induced Dynamic and Thermodynamic Drivers of Extreme Rainfall
25. Variations in the start, end, and length of extreme precipitation period across China
29. Carbon uptake and biogeochemical change in the Southern Ocean, south of Tasmania
31. Year-round CH4 and CO2 flux dynamics in two contrasting freshwater ecosystems of the subarctic
33. Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990–2013
37. Characteristics of mid-level clouds over West Africa
39. Evaluating modeled impact metrics for human health, agriculture growth, and near-term climate
40. Evaluating the relationship between climate change and volcanism
Climate change impacts
41. Large-scale bleaching of corals on the Great Barrier Reef
"In 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching." ... "The severity of bleaching on individual reefs in 2016 was tightly correlated with the level of local heat exposure: the southernmost region of the Great Barrier Reef escaped with only minor bleaching because summer temperatures there were close to average." ... "Two earlier mass bleaching events occurred on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998 and 2002, that were less severe than 2016. In 2016, less than 9% of scored reefs had no bleaching, compared to 42% in 2002 and 44% in 1998. Conversely, the proportion of reefs that were severely bleached (>60% of corals affected) was four times higher in 2016."
"This paper presents the extent to which climate, harvest and prices influenced the major migration waves from southwest Germany into North America during the 19th century, a century of dramatic climatic and societal changes."
43. Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming
"We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size–temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common."
44. Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia
"Models anticipate abrupt growth reductions for the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing forest die-off in the past decades. However, growth would increase in moist refugia. Circum-Mediterranean fir forests currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable according to the climate model predictions for the late 21st century."
46. Maize leaf functional responses to drought episode and rewatering
48. The impact of climate change on air conditioning requirements in Andalusia at a detailed scale
51. Environmental impacts and causes of conflict in the Horn of Africa: A review
52. The role of knowledge in climate transition and transformation literatures
54. Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea-level rise
55. Multi-sectoral, high-resolution assessment of climate change consequences of coastal flooding
56. An investigation of coastal climate change risk assessment practice in Australia
57. Climate Change Impacts on Selected Global Rangeland Ecosystem Services
61. Climate and nutrient effects on Arctic wetland plant phenology observed from phenocams
62. Climate-mediated changes in marine ecosystem regulation during El Niño
66. Physical effects of habitat-forming species override latitudinal trends in temperature
67. How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models
68. Coral calcifying fluid aragonite saturation states derived from Raman spectroscopy
Climate change mitigation
69. Transformation of Japan's energy system to attain net-zero emission by 2050
"Based on a scenario analysis performed using AIM/Enduse [Japan], Japan's energy supply sector requires a radical transformation, including reliance on carbon dioxide removal options such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to attain net-zero emissions by 2050 without substantial social changes."
70. Variation in beliefs about 'fracking' between the UK and US
"The US sample was more likely to associate positive impacts with development (i.e. production of clean energy, cheap energy, and advancing national energy security). The UK sample was more likely to associate negative impacts (i.e. water contamination, higher carbon emissions, and earthquakes)."
71. Integrated assessment of international climate mitigation commitments outside the UNFCCC
78. Quantifying methane emissions from natural gas production in north-eastern Pennsylvania
79. Well-to-wheel GHG emissions and mitigation potential from light-duty vehicles in Macau
Other papers
80. Emulation of long-term changes in global climate: application to the late Pliocene and future
81. The Little Ice Age in Iberian mountains
82. Can solar cycle modulate the ENSO effect on the Pacific/North American pattern?
83. Did anthropogeology anticipate the idea of the Anthropocene?
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