Skeptical Science New Research for Week #30 2022

Posted on 28 July 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

51% disgusted, 51% sad

From our government and NGO publication section, the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University's Center for Climate Change Communication release an update on attitudes about climate change among US residents. Climate Change in the American Mind (PDF) extends a long term program of sampling and continues to reveal the shifting position of climate change in US public perceptions. Definitely visit for the executive summary, then stay to learn the methods. 

Other notables:

Bringing albedo to the GHG market. Easy, cheap, fast, available now. What could be better? It's good that researchers are available to calculate such things as "Taking Los Angeles, CA as a test site for urban global warming mitigation actions, a residential “cool roof” project offers approximately seven times as much radiative forcing benefit from albedo change as from GHG reduction of energy efficiency; and a citywide increase to commercial building roof albedo offers radiative forcing benefit equivalent to the first 6½ years of all commercial sector GHG emission reductions proposed in the City of Los Angeles climate action plan." 

Impact on the reduction of CO2 emissions due to the use of telemedicine. Similar to the above item, it turns out that by paying attention to details, we can perform significant GHG reductions by simple changes in habits. This study reveals effective reduction of some 4,698 net tons of CO2 emissions by a single medical provider in a single year. 

Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming-driven increase in heavy rainfall. "Our results suggest that if global warming continues unchecked, the incidence of primary and secondary rainfall-related volcanic activity—such as dome explosions or flank collapse—will increase at more than 700 volcanoes around the globe."

US nuclear power: Status, prospects, and climate implications. "Dismal economics" and conspicuous failure in the evolving energy market "might dampen enthusiasm" as diplomatically expressed by author Amory Lovins. Yet nuclear power continues to be an important part of the energy transition conversation. How and why is this possible? Lovins explores. 

84 articles in 47 journals by 419 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Carbon emissions and radiative forcings from tundra wildfires in the Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska
Moubarak et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-144

Observations of climate change, effects

A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change
Liu et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03409-9

Decrease in air-sea CO2 fluxes caused by persistent marine heatwaves
Mignot et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31983-0

Lakes in Hot Water: The Impacts of a Changing Climate on Aquatic Ecosystems
Woolway et al., BioScience, Open Access pdf 10.1093/biosci/biac052

Long-term trends in climate parameters and multiple indices for drought monitoring over Pakistan
Adnan & Ullah, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 10.1007/s00703-022-00908-3

Trends in diurnal variation of surface air temperatures over India during hot weather (April–June) season
Rohini et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05447-z

Warming and redistribution of nitrogen inputs drive an increase in terrestrial nitrous oxide emission factor
Harris et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32001-z

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A versatile spaceborne architecture for immediate monitoring of the global methane pledge
Wang et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-518

An evaluation of ERA5 precipitation for climate monitoring
Lavers et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4351

Reconstructing GRACE-like time series of high mountain glacier mass anomalies
Liu et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113177

What is above average air temperature!?
, [journal not provided], Open Access 10.7717/peerj.4894/fig-2

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A multimodel ensemble machine learning approach for CMIP6 climate model projections in an India River basin
Dey et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7813

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models
Shu et al., Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abn9755

Climate change projection over Mainland Southeast Asia and the Lancang-Mekong River basin based on a set of RegCM4 simulations
Fu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7811

Climatology of Arctic temperature inversions in current and future climates
Ruman et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04147-9

Impacts of 2 and 4 °C global warmings on extreme temperatures in Taiwan
Tsai et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7815

Modelled impact of ocean warming on tropical cyclone size and destructiveness over the Bay of Bengal: A case study on FANI cyclone
Busireddy et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106355

The Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss
Ayres et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0918.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A novel selection method of CMIP6 GCMs for robust climate projection
Hamed et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7461

Aridity-dependent Land Surface Skin Temperature Biases in CMIP5/6
Wu & Yang, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl098952

Assessment of the impacts of biological nitrogen fixation structural uncertainty in CMIP6 earth system models
Davies-Barnard et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-3491-2022

How May the Choice of Downscaling Techniques and Meteorological Reference Observations Affect Future Hydroclimate Projections?
Rastogi et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002734

Inter-comparison of historical simulation and future projections of rainfall and temperature by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs over Egypt
Hamed et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7468

Cryosphere & climate change

Decreasing surface albedo signifies a growing importance of clouds for Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater production
Ryan et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31434-w

Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions
DeRepentigny et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10510652.1

Sea level & climate change

Attributing decadal climate variability in coastal sea-level trends
Royston et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-2022-3

Paleoclimate

Subsurface ocean warming preceded Heinrich Events
Max et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31754-x

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Anna's hummingbird (Calypte anna) physiological response to novel thermal and hypoxic conditions at high elevations
Spence et al., Journal of Experimental Biology, Open Access 10.1242/jeb.243294

Asymmetry of thermal sensitivity and the thermal risk of climate change
Buckley et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10.1111/geb.13570

Climate change disturbances contextualize the outcomes of coral-reef fisheries management across Micronesia
Houk et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000040

Cool microrefugia accumulate and conserve biodiversity under climate change
Nadeau et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16143

Drivers of phenological changes in southern Europe
Vogel, International Journal of Biometeorology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-022-02331-0

Dryland mechanisms could widely control ecosystem functioning in a drier and warmer world
Grünzweig et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution, 10.1038/s41559-022-01779-y

Dryland mechanisms could widely control ecosystem functioning in a drier and warmer world
Grünzweig et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution, 10.1038/s41559-022-01779-y

Empirical evidence for recent global shifts in vegetation resilience
Smith et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01352-2

Functional traits and their plasticity shift from tolerant to avoidant under extreme drought
Kramp et al., Ecology, Open Access 10.1002/ecy.3826

Limited spatial rescue potential for coral reefs lost to future climate warming
Greiner et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10.1111/geb.13571

Recent deterioration of coral reefs in the South China Sea due to multiple disturbances
Xiao et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.13634

Relationship between extinction magnitude and climate change during major marine and terrestrial animal crises
Kaiho, Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-3369-2022

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

An advanced soil organic carbon content prediction model via fused temporal-spatial-spectral (TSS) information based on machine learning and deep learning algorithms
Meng et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113166

Decrease in air-sea CO2 fluxes caused by persistent marine heatwaves
Mignot et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31983-0

Local temperature increases reduce soil microbial residues and carbon stocks
Zeng et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16347

The highest methane concentrations in an Arctic river are linked to local terrestrial inputs
Castro-Morales et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-135

The paradox of assessing greenhouse gases from soils for nature-based solutions
Vargas & Le, [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-153

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Geologic Heterogeneity Controls on Trapping and Migration of CO2
Krishnamurthy et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099104

Rail-based direct air carbon capture
Bachman et al., Joule, 10.1016/j.joule.2022.06.025

Soil carbon sequestration potential in global croplands
Padarian et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.13740

Decarbonization

A physical wind-turbine wake growth model under different stratified atmospheric conditions
Du et al., Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2770

Applications of robotics in floating offshore wind farm operations and maintenance: Literature review and trends
Khalid et al., Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2773

Definitions and implications of climate-neutral aviation
Brazzola et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01404-7

Heat waves and forest fires in Bulgaria
Nojarov & Nikolova, Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05451-3

Hidden repowering potential of non-repowerable onshore wind sites in Germany
Stetter et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113168

Land-use intensity of electricity production and tomorrow’s energy landscape
Lovering et al., PLOS ONE, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pone.0270155

Priority areas for conservation alone are not a good proxy for predicting the impact of renewable energy expansion
Pérez-García et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2204505119

The role of nonfood bioethanol production in neutralizing China's transport carbon emissions: An integrated life cycle environmental-economic assessment
Li et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.06.002

US nuclear power: Status, prospects, and climate implications
Lovins, The Electricity Journal, Open Access 10.1016/j.tej.2022.107122

Geoengineering climate

On the Linearity of External Forcing Response in Solar Geoengineering Experiments
Virgin & Fletcher Fletcher, [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510463.1

Particle number concentrations and size distributions in the stratosphere: Implications of nucleation mechanisms and particle microphysics
Yu et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-487

Aerosols

Modest volcanic SO2 emissions from the Indonesian archipelago
Bani et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-31043-7

Strong control of effective radiative forcing by the spatial pattern of absorbing aerosol
Williams et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01415-4

Climate change communications & cognition

A political experiment may have extracted Australia from the climate wars
Hornsey et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01431-4

But They Told Us It Was Safe! Carbon Dioxide Removal, Fracking, and Ripple Effects in Risk Perceptions
Cox et al., Risk Analysis, Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.13717

Improving public understanding of climate change by supporting weathercasters
Maibach et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01433-2

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Assessment of the vulnerability of farmers toward climate change: a case from Chitre-Parbat of Nepal
Subedi et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00778-6

Climate change and cocoyam (Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott) production: assessing impacts and potential adaptation strategies in Zimbabwe
Chemura et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-022-10014-9

Farmers’ climate change risk perception, adaptation capacity and barriers to adaptation: a multi-method approach
Kabir et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 10.1007/s13412-022-00779-5

Grazing cattle, well-managed or not, is unlikely to increase soil carbon sequestration
Lajtha & Silva, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2203408119

Shifting cultivation geographies in the Central and Eastern US
Burchfield, Environmental Research Letters, Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac6c3d

Soil carbon sequestration potential in global croplands
Padarian et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.13740

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Projection Comparison for Hydrological Impacts over North America
Martel et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl098364

The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation from 40 years of gauge data in the central Himalaya
Regmi & Bookhagen, Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100470

Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming-driven increase in heavy rainfall
Farquharson & Amelung, Royal Society Open Science, Open Access 10.1098/rsos.220275

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Explaining climate policy pathways of unlikely city pioneers: The case of the German city of Remscheid
Haupt & Kern, Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101220

Great power, great responsibility: Assessing power sector policy for the UK’s net zero target
Ball-Burack et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113167

Implementing nationally determined contributions under the Paris agreement: an assessment of climate finance in Caribbean small island developing states
Mohan, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2101978

Ten financial actors can accelerate a transition away from fossil fuels
Dordi et al., Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 10.1016/j.eist.2022.05.006

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Developing Water Resiliency Solutions at Military Installations
Smith et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100451

Prioritizing adaptation and mitigation in the climate movement: evidence from a cross-national protest survey of the Global Climate Strike, 2019
de Moor, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-022-10003-y

Risk Amplification and Attenuation as Communication Strategies in Climate Adaptation in Urban Areas
Dow & Tuler, Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.13819

Climate change impacts on human health

Impact on the reduction of CO2 emissions due to the use of telemedicine
Morcillo Serra et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-16864-2

Premature Deaths In Africa Due To Particulate Matter under high and low Warming Scenarios
Shindell et al., GeoHealth, Open Access 10.1029/2022gh000601

Other

Economic costs and environmental impacts of fossil fuel dependency in sub-Saharan Africa: A Nigerian dilemma
Jacal et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.07.007

Effectiveness of aid projects in climate technology familiarization in recipient countries
Haque & Rashid, Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2100310

On the acceptance of intergenerational climate legacies: A comparison of Canada and Japan
Adachi et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000048

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Bringing albedo to the GHG market
Hammerschlag, Carbon Management, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2098176

The German constitutional verdict is a landmark in climate litigation
Ekardt & Heyl, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01419-0

What will it take to stabilize the Colorado River?
Wheeler et al., Science, Open Access 10.1126/science.abo4452

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate Change in the American Mind, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication

Most Americans think global warming is affecting many environmental problems in the United States, including extreme heat (75%), wildfires (73%), droughts (72%), rising sea levels (72%), flooding (70%), water shortages (70%), air pollution (70%), hurricanes (69%), reduced snowpack (68%), tornados (67%), agricultural pests and diseases (65%), water pollution (63%), and electric power outages (62%). When asked how strongly they feel various emotions when thinking about global warming, a majority of Americans are interested (62%), disgusted (51%), or sad (51%). Fewer Americans feel afraid (46%), angry (44%), or outraged (42%), and only 38% say they feel hopeful. For the first time, the authors asked Americans whether their concerns about climate change are starting to affect where they choose to live. They found that 13% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming, while 78% have not.

Clean energy investments are the antidote to inflation, Goldman et al., Rewiring of America

Congressional energy investments will empower American families to electrify their homes and save money on their energy bills, all while combating inflation, foreign energy dependence, and climate change. Since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, 41 percent of overall inflation is directly attributable to skyrocketing fossil fuel prices. Investments in electrification will free American households from spiraling fossil fuel costs and pump the brakes on inflation. If households had electrified a year ago under Congress’s potential energy provisions, they would have saved $970 in energy bills and $1,350 if they had also installed solar panels. If current prices hold over the next year, these savings will grow to $1,420 and $1,840, respectively. Congressional action will reduce the three billion barrels of oil required each year for household heating and transportation. Each avoided barrel of oil bolsters American energy security and insulates us from the whims of tyrants abroad.

State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2021, Marengo et al., World Meteorological Organization

The report provides details of extreme weather and climate change impacts in the entire region, from the Amazon to the Andes, and from coastal waters to snowy peaks. It gives information on climate indicators including temperatures, ocean heat and acidification, sea level rise, and glaciers, as well as on extreme events like tropical cyclones, heatwaves, drought, heavy precipitation, and cold waves. It also highlights the impacts of the changing climate on agriculture and food security, migration and displacement, socioeconomic development, the environment, and ecosystem services.

Special Report on Solar PV Global Supply Chains, International Energy Agency

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is a crucial pillar of clean energy transitions worldwide, underpinning efforts to reach international energy and climate goals. Over the last decade, the amount of solar PV deployed around the world has increased massively while its costs have declined drastically. Putting the world on a path to reaching net zero emissions requires solar PV to expand globally on an even greater scale, raising concerns about the security of manufacturing supply for achieving such rapid growth rates – but also offering new opportunities for diversification. The authors examine solar PV supply chains from raw materials all the way to the finished product, spanning the five main segments of the manufacturing process: polysilicon, ingots, wafers, cells, and modules. The analysis covers supply, demand, production, energy consumption, emissions, employment, production costs, investment, trade, and financial performance, highlighting key vulnerabilities and risks at each stage. Because diversification is one of the key strategies for reducing supply chain risks, the authors assess the opportunities and challenges of developing solar PV supply chains in terms of job creation, investment requirements, manufacturing costs, emissions, and recycling. Finally, the authors summarise policy approaches that governments have taken to support domestic solar PV manufacturing and provide recommendations based on these policies.

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Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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