Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #37 2022
Posted on 15 September 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Mutual assured stupefaction
A plethora of investigations have found that come the clutch, ideology often wins over facts when it comes to uncomfortable truths. If the outcomes of facts disagree with ideological objectives, facts frequently lose. Why? If we look at the sharpest divergences of facts from wishful ideology, we find a common element: truth as best we know it, information showing the need for regulation, checks on behavior. Meanwhile, many people have an abiding faith that "things will work out for the best" if everybody is left with maximum freedom of action. This is despite ample evidence to the contrary. We end up heading straight to denial.
If everybody were free to deny whatever they wanted purely wiithin the space between their ears, each of us could live in our own fantasy world without harming anybody else. Unfortunately the real world doesn't work this way. In the real world we need "public policy," agreed cooperation on matters of mutual interests.
Public policy puts us at cross purposes with libertarian thinking. Because the collection of behaviors bundled in the term "human nature" results in a tiny fraction of our population creating huge problems, we end up with a need for enforcement of minimum standards of behavior. "I shouldn't dump my untreated sewage onto my neighbor's property" seems an instinctually easy matter for most of us to understand, yet a small fraction of our fellows will for various reasons find themselves unwilling to understand or comply with such community standards. Thus we end up in a world including laws and regulations, enforcement, coercion. By the small minority of the unwilling we're forced to go places we'd rather not. We shouldn't blame "government" for regulations— laws and regulations are the handiwork of a tiny fraction of our population— but misattribution of regulations is a common confusion, muddled thinking that has an outsized impact.
Policy is the foundation of law, and law is what regulations are built upon. In a representative democracy public policy is made by politicians, legislators elected to create law. Often, politicians with our collective consent play the role of "adults in the room," appointed by us to say "no" to the worst of our nature. And it's here where things become tricky, where "get elected" is the first hurdle for "be able to do good."
To be elected, politicians must please a lot of people— a distinct moral hazard. After all, if one isn't elected, one can't influence policy at all. So maybe it's okay to sugarcoat the truth a bit? That's exactly what we find happening, as described by Hai & Perlman in Extreme weather events and the politics of climate change attribution, just published in AAAS Science Advances. In their public rhetoric, politicians who clearly know better shy away from "connecting the dots" between current events and climate change, because substantial portions of their constituencies have what looks like an ideological disinclination to acknowledge a small but dark side our human nature.
We've reached a point in our tampering with geophysics where we can see our own effects on Earth's climate systems. Honest leadership is key to dealing with this. Regardless of purpose, crafting communications so as to omit salient and urgent facts is to lie, and expediently emulate stupidity.
Aside from moral and ethical problems, lying makes us effectively more stupid. Here, smart people are pretending to be stupid in deference to ideological wishful thinking, and rather than being offered help they're having their bad habit reinforced by leaders joining in their pretense by also pretending to be stupid.
We're left to wonder: are there enough real world cases to investigate whether constituents might respond positively to an honestly delivered, earned slap in the face by a politician fully occupying the space of appointed adult in the room? Hai & Perlman identify candidates for such a test. Perhaps we'll find out.
Other notables:
Global tourism, climate change and energy sustainability: assessing carbon reduction mitigating measures from the aviation industry. The authors find a lot of confounding variables at play. Another way of looking at it: "I may not have time before drowning to figure how to swim while carrying a stack of bricks." Is Jet-A tourism something we can afford to coddle, how much grace time do we give it, and who's going to pay for the results? One way or another we're certaiinly going to find out.
The existential risk space of climate change. The better to live, let's formalize our thinking about "this could kill us." Who's "us" for starters, and what does "dead" imply? The authors make a sound case for their suggestion: "a clearer and more precise definition and framing of existential risks of climate change such as we offer here facilitates scientific analysis as well societal and political discourse and action."
Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition. "Most energy-economy models have produced energy transition scenarios that overestimate costs due to underestimating renewable energy cost improvements and deployment rates." Rupert Way et al. explain and demonstrate.
United in Science 2022. A multi-organization high-level compilation of the most recent science related to climate change, impacts and responses. Consilience on climate, as presented by the World Meteorological Organization. From our government/NGO section.
All of the above open access and free to read.
126 articles in 49 journals by 698 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Spatial patterns and possible mechanisms of precipitation changes in recent decades over and around the Tibetan Plateau in the context of intense warming and weakening winds
Guo & Tian, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06197-1
The Vertical Profile of Radiative Cooling and Lapse Rate in a Warming Climate
Hartmann et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0861.1
Observations of climate change, effects
Arctic shrub expansion revealed by Landsat-derived multitemporal vegetation cover fractions in the Western Canadian Arctic
Nill et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113228
Changes in thermal comfortable condition in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau from 1979 to 2020
Lan-Yue et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.09.003
Ocean acidification and long-term changes in the carbonate system properties of the South Atlantic Ocean
Piñango et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2021gb007196
The Alaska Blocking Index, version 2: Analysis and covariability with statewide and large-scale climate from 1948–2020
Ballinger et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7864
The fast-changing climate reality of Arequipa, Peru
de Lima Moraes et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7855
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A New Model for Isolating the Marine Heatwave Changes under Warming Scenarios
Wang et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 10.1175/jtech-d-21-0142.1
A year-round satellite sea-ice thickness record from CryoSat-2
Landy et al., Nature, 10.1038/s41586-022-05058-5
Bayesian networks and intelligence technology applied to climate change: An application of fuzzy logic based simulation in avalanche simulation risk assessment using GIS in a Western Himalayan region
Arumugam et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101272
Changepoint Detection: An Analysis of the Central England Temperature Series
Shi et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0489.1
Temporal downscaling of daily precipitation to 10 min data for assessment of climate change impact on floods in small-size watersheds applied to Jinju, South Korea
Lee et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06216-1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
CMIP6 Simulations of the Spatial Structure of Rainfall Variability over East Africa: Evaluation and Projection
Mbigi et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7868
Contributions of External Forcing to the Decadal Decline of the South Asian High
Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl099384
Frequency of different types of El Niño events under global warming
Alizadeh et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7858
Influence of Reduced Winter Land–Sea Contrast on the Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation
Portal et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0941.1
Investigating future changes in precipitation interannual variability and extremes over Southern China
Liu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7842
Is natural variability really natural? The case of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation investigated by a neural network model
Pasini et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04207-0
Projections of future precipitation and air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP6 multi-model ensembles
Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7865
Understanding Changes in the Tropical Circulation under Global Warming Using a Cloud-Resolving Model and a Conceptual Model
Neogi & Singh, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0854.1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Cloud Response Is Significantly Biased by CMIP6 Over the Tibetan Plateau
Zhao et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100903
Combining global climate models using graph cuts
Thao et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06213-4
Cryosphere & climate change
Antarctic sea ice regime shift associated with decreasing zonal symmetry in the Southern Annular Mode
Schroeter et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-151
Brief communication: Everest South Col Glacier did not thin during the last three decades
Brun et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-166
Current state and past changes in frozen ground at the Third Pole: A research synthesis
Ran et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.09.004
Ice mass loss sensitivity to the Antarctic ice sheet basal thermal state
Dawson et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32632-2
Paleoclimate
Enhanced Arctic sea ice melting controlled by larger heat discharge of mid-Holocene rivers
Dong et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33106-1
Reversible ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the Late Holocene
Balco et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-172
Wilkes subglacial basin ice sheet response to Southern Ocean warming during late Pleistocene interglacials
Crotti et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32847-3
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A quantitative synthesis of and predictive framework for studying winter warming effects in reptiles
Moss & MacLeod, Oecologia, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-022-05251-3
Climate change alters aging patterns of reservoir aquatic habitats
Miranda & Faucheux, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03432-w
Community assembly in the wake of glacial retreat: A meta-analysis
Pothula & Adams, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16427
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
Bopp et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022
Emergence of the physiological effects of elevated CO2 on land–atmosphere exchange of carbon and water
Zhan et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510955.1
Maximum summer temperatures predict the temperature adaptation of Arctic soil bacterial communities
Rijkers et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-184
Revisiting and attributing the global controls on terrestrial ecosystem functions of climate and plant traits at FLUXNET sites with causal networks
Shi et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-191
Silver birch shows nonlinear responses to moisture availability and temperature in the eastern Baltic Sea region
Matisons et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126003
Strong isoprene emission response to temperature in tundra vegetation
Seco et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2118014119
Svalbard reindeer winter diets: long-term dietary shifts to graminoids in response to a changing climate
Hiltunen et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16420
The rising threat of climate change for arthropods from Earth's cold regions: Taxonomic rather than native status drives species sensitivity
Renault et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16338
The stationary and non-stationary character of the silver fir, black pine and Scots pine tree-growth-climate relationships
Here? et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109146
Warming reduced flowering synchrony and extended community flowering season in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau
Chen et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3862
Wet and dry extremes reduce arthropod biomass independently of leaf phenology in the wet tropics
Newell et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16379
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A new method to estimate the dissolved organic carbon concentration from remote sensing in the global open ocean
Bonelli et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113227
An update on dissolved methane distribution in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean
Kolomijeca et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-360
Carbon Cycle Extremes Accelerate Weakening of the Land Carbon Sink in the Late 21st Century
Sharma et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-178
Carbon dynamics at the river–estuarine transition: a comparison among tributaries of Chesapeake Bay
Bukaveckas, Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-4209-2022
Climate change alters aging patterns of reservoir aquatic habitats
Miranda & Faucheux, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03432-w
Economic drivers of global and regional CH4 emission growth from the consumption perspective
Sun et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113242
Emergent Climate Change Impacts on the Soil C and N Cycles in the Mojave Desert
Mills et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2021gb007254
Forest expansion dominates China’s land carbon sink since 1980
Yu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32961-2
Implementation and initial calibration of carbon-13 soil organic matter decomposition in the Yasso model
Mäkelä et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10506003.1
Particulate organic matter in the Lena River and its Delta: From the permafrost catchment to the Arctic Ocean
Ogneva et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-183
The influence of tides on the marine carbonate chemistry of a coastal polynya in the south-eastern Weddell Sea
Droste et al., Ocean Science, Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-18-1293-2022
Variability in sea ice carbonate chemistry: a case study comparing the importance of ikaite precipitation, bottom-ice algae, and currents across an invisible polynya
Else et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-3685-2022
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Energy comparison of sequential and integrated CO2 capture and electrochemical conversion
Li et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.26434/chemrxiv-2021-33k4d-v2
Grave-to-cradle upcycling of Ni from electroplating wastewater to photothermal CO2 catalysis
Wang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-33029-x
More carbon per drop to enhance soil carbon sequestration in water-limited environments
Ghimire et al., Carbon Management, Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2117082
Using remote sensing to quantify the additional climate benefits of California forest carbon offset projects
Coffield et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16380
Decarbonization
A systematic analysis of integrating variable wind power into Fujian power grid
Mou & Wang, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113237
Evaluation of industrial waste black cumin (Nigella Sativa) for biohydrogen production without pretreatment
Dursun & Gül?en, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01939-3
Procurement for zero-emission construction sites: a comparative study of four European cities
Stokke et al., Environment Systems and Decisions, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-022-09879-7
Reducing the carbon intensity of international shipping – The impact of energy efficiency measures
Sou et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113239
The impact of wind and solar power generation on the level and volatility of wholesale electricity prices in Greece
Maniatis & Milonas Milonas, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113243
The next global crisis: Africa’s renewable energy financing gap
Olabisi et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2113022
Towards the construction of a sustainable rural energy system: Case study of an indigenous community in Mexico
López-Sosa & García, Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.08.022
Towards ultra-low energy consumption buildings: Implementation path strategy based on practical effects in China
Zhang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.08.025
Black carbon
Mapping the dependence of black carbon radiative forcing on emission region and season
Räisänen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-11579-2022
The impact of atmospheric motions on source-specific black carbon and the induced direct radiative effects over a river-valley region
Liu et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-26
Aerosols
A central arctic extreme aerosol event triggered by a warm air-mass intrusion
Dada et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-32872-2
Significant Effective Radiative Forcing of Stratospheric Wildfire Smoke
Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100175
Climate change communications & cognition
Ecological footprint of your denim jeans: production knowledge and green consumerism
Asmi et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access 10.1007/s11625-022-01131-0
Extreme weather events and the politics of climate change attribution
Hai & Perlman, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abo2190
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Agroforestry perennials reduce nitrous oxide emissions and their live and dead trees increase ecosystem carbon storage
Gross et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16322
Future scenarios of land use change in the Gran Chaco: how far is zero-deforestation?
Mosciaro et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-01965-5
Identifying priority areas to manage mobile bottom fishing on seabed carbon in the UK
Epstein & Roberts, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000059
Investment planning to minimize climate risk in agricultural production: an optimization model for a semi-arid region in India
Deb Pal et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2118656
Observed and CMIP6 simulated occurrence and intensity of compound agroclimatic extremes over maize harvested areas in China
Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100503
Risk perception and political leaning explain the preferences of non-industrial private landowners for alternative climate change mitigation strategies in Finnish forests
Vehola et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.09.003
The impact of climate change on growth and drought-induced mortality risk of Robinia pseudoacacia plantations along a precipitation gradient on the Chinese Loess Plateau
Yan et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109160
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A Comprehensive Analysis of Observed and Projected Climate Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation in Belo Monte Hydropower Plant – Eastern Amazon, Brazil
Luiz?Silva et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7859
Combined Effects of Tropical Indo-Pacific–Atlantic SST Anomalies on Record-Breaking Floods over Central-North China in September 2021
Liu et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0988.1
Contribution of Atmospheric Rivers to Antarctic Precipitation
Lenaerts et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510701.1
Global water availability and its distribution under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six scenarios
Li & Li, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7559
Nonlinear Seasonal and Long-Term Trends in a Twentieth-Century Meteorological Drought Index across the Continental United States
Sung & Stagge, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0045.1
Public policies on water resource management and its impacts on the context of climatic changes and alterations in land use and land cover in small and protected rainforest river basins
Dill et al., Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.08.021
Reduction of the uncertainties in the hydrological projections in Korean river basins using dynamically downscaled climate projections
Qiu et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06201-8
Spatial patterns of extreme precipitation and their changes under ~ 2 °C global warming: a large-ensemble study of the western USA
Rupp et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access 10.1007/s00382-022-06214-3
Spatial-temporal variation of precipitation recycling over the Tibetan Plateau under climate warming
Li et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106431
Trivariate Analysis of Changes in Drought Characteristics in the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble at Global Warming Levels of 1.5°, 2°, and 3°C
Tabari & Willems, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0993.1
Climate change economics
Income inequality and CO2 emissions: nonlinear evidence from Turkey
Ozturk et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01922-y
Post-2025 climate finance target: how much more and how much better?
Pauw et al., Climate Policy, Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2022.2114985
Roles of trilemma in the world energy sector and transition towards sustainable energy: A study of economic growth and the environment
Liu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113238
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Analysis of Bhutan's energy policies in relation to energy security and climate change: Policy perspective
Gyeltshen, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113223
Beyond the environmental Kuznets curve: Do combined impacts of air transport and rail transport matter for environmental sustainability amidst energy use in E7 economies?
Gyamfi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01944-6
Carbon taxation as a means to incentivize forest and fire management
Pacheco, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01953-5
Decarbonisation policies and energy price reforms in Bangladesh
Amin et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113224
Global tourism, climate change and energy sustainability: assessing carbon reduction mitigating measures from the aviation industry
Leal Filho et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access 10.1007/s11625-022-01207-x
Mathematical modeling of sustainable development goals of India agenda 2030: a Neutrosophic programming approach
Haq et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-021-01928-6
Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming
Li et al., Nature Communications, Open Access 10.1038/s41467-022-33047-9
The development of renewable energy industry under renewable portfolio standards: From the perspective of provincial resource differences
Hu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113212
The durable, bipartisan effects of emphasizing the cost savings of renewable energy
Gustafson et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01099-2
The influences of non-optimal investments on the scale-up of smart local energy systems in the UK electricity market
Li et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113241
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A governance perspective for climate change adaptation: Conceptualizing the policy-community interface in Bangladesh
Hossen et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1446538/v1
Adaptation strategies for urban warming: Assessing the impacts of heat waves on cooling capabilities in Chongqing, China
Liu et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101269
Adapting to climate risks through cross-border investments: industrial vulnerability and smart city resilience
An et al., Climatic Change, Open Access 10.1007/s10584-022-03431-x
Adaptive capacity within tropical marine protected areas – Differences between men- and women-headed households
Pike et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102584
Can Pakistan achieve sustainable water security? Climate change, population growth and development impacts to 2100
Kirby & Ahmad, Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-022-01115-0
Climate discourses as barriers to rights-based adaptive social protection: How historical politics shape Ethiopia’s climate-smart safety net
Tenzing & Conway, Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102583
Collaborative scenario building: Engaging stakeholders to unravel opportunities for urban adaptation planning
Suchá et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101277
Geo-based model of intrinsic resilience to climate change: an approach to nature-based solution
Mahmood et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01925-9
Livelihood vulnerability of char land communities to climate change and natural hazards in Bangladesh: an application of livelihood vulnerability index
Al Mamun et al., Natural Hazards, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-022-05599-y
Third-generation adaptive capacity assessment for climate-resilient development
Elrick-Barr et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2117978
Climate change impacts on human health
Dermatology's call to emergency action on climate change
Parker & Boos, British Journal of Dermatology, 10.1111/bjd.21789
Extending the Heat Index
Romps & Lu Romps Romps Sozio Clement, Environmental Research Letters, Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8945
Impact of diurnal temperature range on hospital admissions for cerebrovascular disease among farmers in Northwest China
Zhai et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-19507-8
Predicting climate change and its impact on future occurrences of vector-borne diseases in West Bengal, India
Mondal et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-01920-0
Climate change & geopolitics
Governing people on the move in a warming world: Framing climate change migration and the UNFCCC Task Force on Displacement
Vanhala & Calliari Calliari, Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102578
Other
A Novel Illustration of Real Options Analysis to Address the Problem of Probabilities under Deep Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk
Stroombergen & Lawrence, Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100458
Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition
Way et al., Joule, Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009
Molecular biomarkers in Batagay megaslump permafrost deposits reveal clear differences in organic matter preservation between glacial and interglacial periods
Jongejans et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-3601-2022
Prediction of the typhoon wind field in Hong Kong: integrating the effects of climate change using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Wang et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06211-6
Recently Amplified Interannual Variability of the Great Lakes Ice Cover in Response to Changing Teleconnections
Lin et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0448.1
Trade-offs for climate-smart forestry in Europe under uncertain future climate
Gregor et al., Earth's Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef002796
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Conserving biodiversity in the face of rapid climate change requires a shift in priorities
Schlaepfer & Lawler, WIREs Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.798
Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Armstrong McKay et al., Science, 10.1126/science.abn7950
The existential risk space of climate change
Huggel et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03430-y
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap, Creston et al, Department of Energy
Meeting industrial decarbonization emissions reduction targets will require rapid deployment of state-of-the-art technologies and development of new low- and no-carbon technology solutions. In addition to technology solutions, policy and other barriers must be overcome. Key learnings and recommendations from the roadmap include advance early-stage RD&D, invest in multiple process strategies and address process heating efficiency and emissions across all sub-sectors.
Climate and Energy Implications of Crypto-Assets in the United States, Office of Science and Technology Policy, The White House
The authors explore the challenges and opportunities of crypto-assets for energy and climate change issues in the United States, and answers four main questions asked in Executive Order 14067: 1. How do digital assets affect energy usage, including grid management and reliability, energy efficiency incentives and standards, and sources of energy supply? 2. What is the scale of climate, energy, and environmental impacts of digital assets relative to other energy uses, and what innovations and policies are needed in the underlying data to enable robust comparisons? 3. What are the potential uses of blockchain technology that could support climate monitoring or mitigating technologies?
Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Draft Decadal Strategic Plan, 2022-2031, Melillo et al, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
More intense heat waves, extended wildfire seasons and other escalating impacts of climate change have made it more important than ever to fill knowledge gaps that improve society's understanding, assessment, and response to global change. The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) - a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to help the United States and the world fill those knowledge gaps - laid out proposed mechanisms and priorities for global change research over the next decade in its draft Decadal Strategic Plan 2022-2031. The draft plan recognizes that priority knowledge gaps have shifted over the past decade as demand has grown for more useful and more inclusive data to inform decision-making, and as the focus on resilience and sustainability has increased
Tracking the Sun, Barbose et al, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
The author's describe trends related to: The report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The authors describe project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership; median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state, including preliminary data for first half of 2022; and variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis
Drought in Europe August 2022, Toreti et al, European Commision
The severe drought affecting many regions of Europe since the beginning of the year has been further expanding and worsening as of early August. Dry conditions are related to a wide and persistent lack of precipitation combined with a sequence of heatwaves from May onwards. The severe precipitation deficit has affected river discharges widely across Europe. Reduced stored water volume has had severe impacts on the energy sector for both hydropower generation and cooling systems of other power plants. Water and heat stresses have substantially reduced summer crop yields. The most affected crops are grain maize, soybeans, and sunflowers. Recent precipitation (mid-August) may have alleviated drought conditions in some regions of Europe. However, in some areas, associated thunderstorms caused damages, losses, and may have limited the beneficial effects of precipitation. Warmer and drier than usual conditions are likely to occur in the western Euro-Mediterranean region in the coming months till November 2022. In some areas of the Iberian Peninsula, warning drier than usual conditions are forecasted for the next three months.
United in Science 2022. A multi-organization high-level compilation of the most recent science related to climate change, impacts and responses, Stuart et al, World Meteorological Organization
The authors provide an overview of the most recent science related to climate change, impacts and responses from the World Meteorological Organization and partner organizations. At a time when urgent action to address climate change is needed, the authors provide unified scientific information to inform decision-makers and highlights some of the physical and socioeconomic impacts of the current and projected climate.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.
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