Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022
Posted on 15 December 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open Access Notables:
Risk of the hydrogen economy for atmospheric methane. Hydrogen promises to be a handy repalcement for certain awkward energy storage situations. How we can produce hydrogen varies from "green" to "blue. As it turns out, we'll need to pay close attention to how we obtain and distribute hydrogen because even a little leakage can end up causing climate problems, with so-called "blue" hydrogen at risk of being a serious issue. Matteo Bertagni investigate, beginning with the premise "It has been long known that H2 emissions may exert a significant indirect radiative forcing by perturbing the concentration of other GHG gases in the atmosphere. This indirect GHG effect of H2 calls for a detailed scrutiny of the global H2 budget and the environmental consequences of its perturbation."
Review: CO2 capturing methods of the last two decades. Variously trashed as greenwashing or described as a mandatory requirement for healing our climate, CO2 removal has a mixed reputation. But what is it, actually, and how practical are the various flavors? Here's a handy review article for getting a grip, by Kammerer, Borho & Schmidt.
In some places, there will never be "a grid." Sparse populations and lack of money demand creativity. This unfolds as a lot of details and decisions. Emília Inês Come Zebra et al. show how a lot of numbers come together for making many choices so as to deliver reasonably affordable power in an "island" context, in Scaling up the electricity access and addressing best strategies for a sustainable operation of an existing solar PV mini-grid: A case study of Mavumira village in Mozambique.
Can we invent our way into generally being favorable of wind farms yet finding reasons why "no way in my back yard!" will fit inside the same skull? Yes, we can! Of course we can do that— we're only human! Anticipating and defusing the role of conspiracy beliefs in shaping opposition to wind farms by Kevin Winter et al. decribes how our reasoning breaks, how it's hard to fix, but also how our smarts can be made more robust against failure.
It's a scant and unreliable comfort (and a refuge of scoundrels) that climate change will extend growing seasons in high latitudes. However, rob Peter, pay Paul; in low latitudes and in certain regions growing seasons will shorten due to excessive temperatures. This will have of course have large negative effects on agriculture. Albert Nkwasa, Katharina Waha & Ann van Griensven review options for remedy, in Can the cropping systems of the Nile basin be adapted to climate change?
In a nutshell, people in the US are moving from areas facing one type of climate risk and straight into other affected regions, only with different specific risks. In their paper Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States Clark, Nkonya & Galford examine these accidental choices and offer advice to policymakers.
Desperate times require desperate measures, but calm down and think? In Reply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic, the authors of the paper Climate Endgame find much to agree with but draw a line: "We disagree that anticipatory governance should involve nondemocratic development of policy responses, including publicly unpalatable and potentially draconian interventions such as forced relocation. Large-scale technocratic approaches have a track record of backfiring. Moreover, the need for open democratic policy responses has been a key point of agreement across most replies to Climate Endgame."
Some intentional hits, some accidental hits and a lot of misses. That's what Hoeben, Otto & Chersich discover when they take a close peek at Europe's execution when it comes to plannig the intersection between public health and climate change, in Integrating public health in European climate change adaptation policy and planning.
A quite disturbing finding: Yali Liang et al. suggest by careful analysis that over 25% of preterm births in China are already attibutable to our warming climate. And of course we're just getting started. Covered in The burden of heatwave-related preterm births and associated human capital losses in China, just published in Nature Communications.
163 articles in 70 journals by 1,261 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Low-Level Circulation and Its Coupling with Free-Tropospheric Variability as a Mechanism of Spontaneous Aggregation of Moist Convection
Yanase et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 10.1175/jas-d-21-0313.1
Modification of North Atlantic Deep Water by Pacific/Upper Circumpolar Deep Water in the Argentine Basin
Brand et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10511288.1
Observations of climate change, effects
Accelerated growth rates of Norway spruce and European beech saplings from Europe's temperate primary forests are related to warmer conditions
Marchand et al., SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.4058783
Attribution of the Subsurface Temperature Change in the Southern Hemisphere
Chen & Cheng, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 10.1175/jpo-d-21-0226.1
Elevation-dependent changes in the trend of reference evapotranspiration in the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2017
Chang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7964
Rapid surface warming of the Pacific Asian marginal seas since the late 1990s
Wang & Wu, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018744
Recent calamitous climate change in India (1990–2019)
Bhargavi et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04311-1
Recent global decline in rainfall interception loss due to altered rainfall regimes
Lian et al., Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-022-35414-y
Response of the Ryukyu Current to climate change during 1993–2018: Is there a robust trend?
Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018957
Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950
Patacca et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16531
Temporally extended satellite-derived surface air temperatures reveal a complete warming picture on the Tibetan Plateau
Qin et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113410
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A synopsis of AIRS global-mean clear-sky radiance trends from 2003 to 2020
Huang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037598
Climate change detection and attribution using observed and simulated tree-ring width
Franke et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022
The main inherent uncertainty sources in trend estimation based on satellite remote sensing data
Wen et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04312-0
The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas
Diez-Sierra et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0111.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Aerosol sensitivity simulations over East Asia in a convection-permitting climate model
Li et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06620-7
Antarctic Ice-Sheet Meltwater Reduces Transient Warming and Climate Sensitivity Through the Sea-Surface Temperature Pattern Effect
Dong et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl101249
CMIP6 Models Trend Toward Less Persistent European Blocking Regimes in a Warming Climate
Dorrington et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100811
Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble
McSweeney & Kooperman, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100864
Future Köppen-Geiger climate zones over Southeast Asia using CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble
Hamed et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106560
Historical and projected relationships between the Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon and precipitation in Central Asia based on multi-CMIP6 models
Lu et al., Atmospheric Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106564
How desertification in northern China will change under a rapidly warming climate in the near future (2021–2050)
Yang et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04315-x
Impact of climatic and vegetation dynamic change on runoff over the Three Rivers Source Region based on the Community Land Model
Deng et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06619-0
Impacts of the strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature: mean state
Ma & Jiang, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06605-6
Link between the Land–Sea Thermal Contrast and the Asian Summer Monsoon
Zuo & Zhang Ding, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0944.1
Net Equatorward Shift of the Jet Streams When the Contribution From Sea-Ice Loss Is Constrained by Observed Eddy Feedback
Screen et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100523
The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas
Diez-Sierra et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0111.1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Equatorial Pacific pCO2 Interannual Variability in CMIP6 Models
Wong et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10512730.1
HORAYZON v1.2: an efficient and flexible ray-tracing algorithm to compute horizon and sky view factor
Steger et al., Geoscientific Model Development, Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022
Impact of Tropical Cyclone Wind Forcing on the Global Climate in a Fully Coupled Climate Model
Li et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0211.1
Implementation of a Discrete Dipole Approximation Scattering Database into Community Radiative Transfer Model
Moradi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036957
Interaction between cloud–radiation, atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics based on observational data from GoAmazon 2014/15 and a cloud-resolving model
Gonçalves et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-15509-2022
Inter-Model Differences in Future Summer Onset Over the Northern High Latitudes
Park et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100739
Link between the time-space behavior of rainfall and 3D dynamical structures of equatorial waves in global convection-permitting simulations
Jung & Knippertz, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100973
Low-Level Cloud Budgets across Sea Ice Edges
Zheng & Ming, Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0301.1
Probabilistic prediction of ENSO over the past 137 years using the CESM model
Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019127
Systematic Evaluation of a High-Resolution CLM5 Simulation over Continental China for 1979–2018
Ma & Wang, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0051.1
Cryosphere & climate change
An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves
Burgard et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2773
Inventory and Frequency of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps in Permafrost Region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
Luo et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099829
Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Emmer et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/nhess-2022-143
Seasonal patterns of Greenland ice velocity from Sentinel-1 SAR data linked to runoff
Solgaard et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100343
Paleoclimate
A Modeling Perspective on the Lingering Glacial Sea Surface Temperature Conundrum
Krätschmer et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100378
Earlier onset and shortened Meiyu season during the Last Interglacial based on dynamical downscaling simulations
Jiang et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101048
Impact of Eocene-Oligocene Antarctic glaciation on the paleoceanography of the Weddell Sea
Hojnacki et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2022pa004440
Intensification of the East Australian Current after ∼1400 CE
Zhai et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100945
New perspectives on historical climatology
White et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.808
Towards new and independent constraints on global mean sea-level highstands during the last glaciation (Marine Isotope Stage 3, 5a, and 5c)
Pico, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2022pa004560
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A multi-level exploration of the relationship between temperature and species diversity: Two cases of marine phytoplankton
Gao & Su, Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9584
Cambial phenology and wood formation of Korean pine in response to climate change in Changbai Mountain, Northeast China
Qian et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126045
Carbon uptake by Douglas-fir is more sensitive to increased temperature and vapor pressure deficit than reduced rainfall in the western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA
Jarecke et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109267
Disentangling temperature and water stress contributions to trends in isoprene emissions using satellite observations of formaldehyde, 2005–2016
Strada et al., Atmospheric Environment, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119530
Disentangling the effects of microalgal diversity and thermal history on freshwater phototrophic biofilms facing heat stress: A thermal dose approach
Courcoul et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.14058
Do trade-offs govern plant species’ responses to different global change treatments?
Langley et al., Ecology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.3626
Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons
Yang et al., Conservation Biology, 10.1111/cobi.14045
Effects of climate-change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi
Xie et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9597
Global warming modifies the seasonal distribution of clutches on a Mediterranean great tit population
Solís et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-022-02415-x
Impacts of climate change on species distribution patterns of Polyspora sweet in China
Fan et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9516
Impacts of extreme climatic events on trophic network complexity and multidimensional stability
Polazzo et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3951
Interannual variability of the initiation of the phytoplankton growing period in two French coastal ecosystems
Poppeschi et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-86
Linking Climate Sensitivity of Plant Phenology to Population Fitness in Alpine Meadow
Song et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007008
Marine phytoplankton community data and corresponding environmental properties from eastern Norway, 1896–2020
Lundsør et al., Scientific Data, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-022-01869-3
Maternal effects and the legacy of extreme environmental events for wild mammals
LaSharr et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3953
Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: the promise of biophysical ecology
Briscoe et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16557
Multiple global change drivers show independent, not interactive effects: a long-term case study in tallgrass prairie
Koerner et al., Oecologia, 10.1007/s00442-022-05295-5
Mutualisms in a warming world: How increased temperatures affect the outcomes of multimutualist interactions
Magnoli et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3955
Potential distribution prediction of Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios
Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9505
Thermal responses in global marine planktonic food webs are mediated by temperature effects on metabolism
Archibald et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10511464.1
Warming signals in temperate reef communities following more than a decade of ecological stability
Soler et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2022.1649
Wildlife in climate refugia: Mammalian diversity, occupancy, and tiger distribution in the Western Himalayas, Nepal
Thapa et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9600
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Atmospheric methane isotopes identify inventory knowledge gaps in the Surat Basin, Australia, coal seam gas and agricultural regions
Kelly et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-552
Author Correction: Improved winter data coverage of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink from extrapolation of summertime observations
Mackay et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00637-w
Consistent centennial-scale change in European sub-Arctic peatland vegetation towards Sphagnum dominance – implications for carbon sink capacity
Piilo et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16554
Effects of Shifting Spring Phenology on Growing Season Carbon Uptake in High Latitudes
Zheng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006900
Environmental and hydrologic controls on sediment and organic carbon export from a subalpine catchment: insights from a time series
Schwab et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-5591-2022
High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change
Dupont et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16558
Risk of the hydrogen economy for atmospheric methane
Bertagni et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35419-7
Trend prediction of carbon peak in China’s animal husbandry based on the empirical analysis of 31 provinces in China
Cheng & Yao Yao, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access 10.1007/s10668-022-02794-6
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Controlling potential far-field brine leakage from CO2 storage formations using deep extraction wells: Numerical and experimental testing
Askar & Illangasekare, Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2194
Electric Double Layer Structure in Electrocatalytic Carbon Dioxide Reduction
Luo et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200148
Life cycle assessment of carbon capture and storage in saline aquifers for coal-fired power generation: An Indian scenario
Gupta et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2198
Review: CO2 capturing methods of the last two decades
Kammerer et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13762-022-04680-0
Decarbonization
Advancing convergence research: Renewable energy solutions for off-grid communities
Moran et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2207754119
Carbon Nanomaterials-Enabled High-Performance Supercapacitors: A Review
Li et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200152
Empowering onshore wind energy: A national choice experiment on financial benefits and citizen participation
le Maitre et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113362
Flexible Freestanding Thin Polyethylene Oxide-Based Film as Artificial Solid–Electrolyte Interface to Protect Lithium Metal in Lithium–Sulfur Batteries
Grotkopp et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200146
Production and recycling of new energy vehicle power batteries under channel encroachment and government subsidy
Liu & Wang, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02759-9
Projection of fuel cell electric vehicle demand reflecting the feedback effects between market conditions and market share affected by spatial factors
Ko & Shin, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113385
Quantification of wind turbine energy loss due to leading-edge erosion through infrared-camera imaging, numerical simulations, and assessment against SCADA and meteorological data
Panthi & Iungo, Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2798
Scaling up the electricity access and addressing best strategies for a sustainable operation of an existing solar PV mini-grid: A case study of Mavumira village in Mozambique
Zebra et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.11.012
Strain Relaxation for Perovskite Lattice Reconfiguration
Jin et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200143
Surface coating by mechanofusion modulates bulk charging pathways and battery performance of Ni-rich layered cathodes
Hou et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2212802119
Wind plant power maximization via extremum seeking yaw control: A wind tunnel experiment
Kumar et al., Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2799
Geoengineering climate
A Controlled Experiment of Surface Albedo Modification to Reduce Ice Melt
Johnson et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002883
Climate change communications & cognition
Anticipating and defusing the role of conspiracy beliefs in shaping opposition to wind farms
Winter et al., Nature Energy, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-022-01164-w
Climate nationalisms: Beyond the binaries of good and bad nationalism
Kashwan et al., WIREs Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.815
Diverging Beliefs on Climate Change and Climate Policy: The Role of Political Orientation
Knollenborg & Sommer, Environmental and Resource Economics, 10.1007/s10640-022-00747-1
Envisioning climate change debates and policies through the tension triangle lens
Nshakira-Rukundo, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000109
Following the money: trade associations, political activity and climate change
Brulle & Downie , Climatic Change, Open Access 10.1007/s10584-022-03466-0
Global Warming's Five Germanys – Revisited and Framed in an International Context
Klinger et al., Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2022.2153897
Skill and self-knowledge: empirical refutation of the dual-burden account of the Dunning–Kruger effect
McIntosh et al., Royal Society Open Science, Open Access 10.1098/rsos.191727
The Communication of Value Judgements and its Effects on Climate Scientists’ Perceived Trustworthiness
Cologna et al., Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2022.2153896
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
An Information-Theoretic Approach to Reconciling Historical Climate Observations and Impacts on Agriculture
Mauerman et al., Weather, Climate, and Society, 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0019.1
Can the cropping systems of the Nile basin be adapted to climate change?
Nkwasa et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-02008-9
Changes in soil greenhouse gas concentrations induced by plastic film mulching in a hot pepper–radish rotation
Chen et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04698-4
Climate change impacts on non-timber forest products: NTFP-dependent community responses from India
Magry et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2152639
Climate change impacts on winter chill in Mediterranean temperate fruit orchards
Fernandez et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-02006-x
Climate driven shifts in the synchrony of apple (Malus x domestica Borkh.) flowering and pollinating bee flight phenology
Wyver et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109281
Factors associated with farmers’ use of indigenous and scientific climate forecasts in Rwenzori region, Western Uganda
Nkuba et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-01994-0
Iron reduction controls carbon mineralization in aquaculture shrimp pond sediments in subtropical estuaries
Tan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007081
Landscape Change Affects Soil Organic Carbon Mineralization and Greenhouse Gas Production in Coastal Wetlands
Yang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007469
Potential distribution prediction of Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios
Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9505
Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding
Fradgley et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16552
Smallholder farms have and can store more carbon than previously estimated
Ewing et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16551
Studies from global regions indicate promising avenues for maintaining and increasing soil organic carbon stocks
Rumpel et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-02003-0
The temporary effect of weed-cover maintenance on transpiration and carbon assimilation of olive trees
Aranda-Barranco et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109266
Trend prediction of carbon peak in China’s animal husbandry based on the empirical analysis of 31 provinces in China
Cheng & Yao Yao, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access 10.1007/s10668-022-02794-6
Understanding farmers’ perception of climate change and adaptation practices in the marshlands of South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo
Mushagalusa Balasha et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100469
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Analysis of maximum precipitation in Thailand using non-stationary extreme value models
Prahadchai et al., Atmospheric Science Letters, 10.1002/asl.1145
Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Rainfall in Eastern Africa in a Convection-Permitting Climate Model
Chapman et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0851.1
Climate change projections of continental-scale streamflow across the Mississippi River Basin
Lewis et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04243-w
Climate-smart harvesting and storing of water: The legacy of dhaka pits at Great Zimbabwe
Pikirayi et al., Anthropocene, Open Access 10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100357
Moisture-budget drivers of global projections of meteorological drought from multiple GCM large ensembles
Norris et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037745
Recent global decline in rainfall interception loss due to altered rainfall regimes
Lian et al., Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-022-35414-y
Climate change economics
A Green Fiscal Pact for the EU: increasing climate investments while consolidating budgets
Darvas & Wolff, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2147893
Estimating and forecasting the impact of nonrenewable energy prices on US renewable energy consumption
Atems et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113374
The impact of climate risk on credit supply to private and public sectors: an empirical analysis of 174 countries
Li et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02827-0
The role of economic globalization in reducing CO2 emissions: implications for sustainable development in South Asian nations
Mehmood, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02823-4
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Assessing Californians’ awareness of their daily electricity use patterns
Zanocco et al., Nature Energy, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-022-01156-w
Broadening the social acceptance of wind energy – An Integrated Acceptance Model
Hübner et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113360
Clean heating: Reforming taxes and levies on heating fuels in Europe
Rosenow et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113367
Crowdsourcing social acceptance: Why, when and how project developers offer citizens to co-invest in wind power
Knauf & Wüstenhagen, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113340
Does high-speed rail reduce local CO2 emissions in China? A counterfactual approach
Yan & Park Park, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113371
Empowering onshore wind energy: A national choice experiment on financial benefits and citizen participation
le Maitre et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113362
Market strategy options to implement Thailand demand response program policy
Sonsaard et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113388
Reply to Gagnon et al.: Short-run estimates vs. long-run conjectures
Holland et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2214219119
Short-run marginal emission rates omit important impacts of electric-sector interventions
Gagnon et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2211624119
Tecno-economic evaluation of residential PV systems under a tiered rate and net metering program in the Dominican Republic
Garabitos Lara et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.11.007
The environmental effects of the “twin” green and digital transition in European regions
Bianchini et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00741-7
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Application of a decision-making framework for multi-objective optimisation of urban heat mitigation strategies
Qi et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101372
Conducting Climate Change Risk Assessments for Companies: Lessons Learned
Teale & Quiring, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0339.1
Designing extreme climate change scenarios for anticipatory governance
Ruhl & Craig, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2216155119
Ecological Calendars, Food Sovereignty, and Climate Adaptation in Standing Rock
Ruelle et al., GeoHealth, 10.1029/2022gh000621
Estimating Household Preferences for Coastal Flood Risk Mitigation Policies under Ambiguity
Ha et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef003031
Exploring the benefits and dis-benefits of climate migration as an adaptive strategy along the rural-peri-urban continuum in Namibia
Thorn et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01973-5
Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States
Clark et al., Frontiers in Human Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.3389/fhumd.2022.886545
Irrigation development under uncertainty: A call for adaptive investment pathways
Prasad et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.11.017
Landscape adaptation to climate change: Local networks, social learning and co-creation processes for adaptive planning
Galan et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102627
Monetary evaluation of co-benefits of nature-based flood risk reduction infrastructure to promote climate justice
Stroud et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10037-2
Nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation are not located where they are most needed across the Alps
Dubo et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-01998-w
Reply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic
Kemp et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2217404119
Climate change impacts on human health
Integrating public health in European climate change adaptation policy and planning
Hoeben et al., Climate Policy, Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2022.2143314
Is Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) going to become homodynamic in Southern Europe in the next decades due to climate change?
Del Lesto et al., Royal Society Open Science, 10.1098/rsos.220967
Residential and Race/Ethnicity Disparities in Heat Vulnerability in the United States
Manware et al., GeoHealth, 10.1029/2022gh000695
The burden of heatwave-related preterm births and associated human capital losses in China
Zhang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35008-8
Climate change impacts on human culture
Heritage sites, climate change, and urban science
Smith et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101371
Linking gender, climate change and security in the Pacific Islands Region: A systematic review
Howard, Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01813-0
Other
Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’
Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881
On the atmospheric background for the occurrence of three heat wave types in East China
Xie & Zhou, Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100539
Routine Reversal of the AMOC in an Ocean Model Ensemble
Dewar et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100117
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Advancing convergence research: Renewable energy solutions for off-grid communities
Moran et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2207754119
Explaining China’s climate in 2021
SUN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.12.001
Research Priorities for Climate Litigation
Wentz et al., Earth's Future, 10.1029/2022ef002928
Book reviews
Global governance of the environment, indigenous peoples and the rights of nature
Etchart, [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1007/978-3-030-81519-6
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Climate Change, Slow-Onset Disasters, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Horn et al., Congressional Research Service
The United States is already experiencing certain effects of climate change, including high-temperature extremes and heavy precipitation events. The U.S. Global Change Research Program, among other bodies, expects these trends to continue and intensify, likely resulting in more severe and frequent “slow-onset” events (e.g., drought; sea level rise), compound disasters (e.g., extreme rainfall combined with coastal flooding), and cascading events (e.g., mudslides caused by flooding after wildfires). Such events may not have clearly defined start or end dates, and cumulative damage may not be immediately apparent. Congress may consider the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA’s) role in addressing these incidents. FEMA administers federal disaster relief authorized under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act. Although FEMA does not have an explicit mission to address climate change, the agency is increasing its activities related to nationwide adaptation to some of its effects, including extreme weather events. The authors highlight issues FEMA may face when activating the Stafford Act for slow-onset events endemic to a changing climate. Slow-onset disasters are not mentioned or defined in the Stafford Act, FEMA’s regulations, or guidance, nor are they included in existing emergency or major disaster definitions.
Big Tech’s dirty secret. How Big Tech’s toxic business model undermines action against climate change, Susie Alegre, Global Action Plan
While there is much good work underway to expose and challenge climate mis- and disinformation online, addressing Big Tech’s multidimensional climate problem requires climate activists to turn their attention to the toxic business model that lies beneath the twin pillars of algorithmic recommender systems and surveillance advertising. Big Tech billionaires are the oil barons of the 21st century and their impact on climate change is no less destructive. Huge emissions from massive data centers are just the tip of the iceberg. Emissions from surveillance-based online advertising are immense, growing, and inherently wasteful. The pollution of the online information environment makes it impossible to focus minds on clear, comprehensive, and coherent action to tackle climate change. And the Big Tech business model tilts the political playing field around the world in ways that pose a direct threat to environmental and climate action through democratic capture, surveillance and lobbying power. These issues in isolation are all hugely problematic. Taken together, they expose Big Tech as a foundational blocker to meaningful climate action.
Security For All: Demilitarizing Our Climate Narratives, Common Defense
This short briefing is produced by climate advocates, military veterans, defense policy thinkers, and human rights experts. It is intended to highlight the danger of making arguments for climate action based on migration, and to further identify some limitations and risks for national security framing more broadly. Finally, they offer alternative pathways for climate advocates to effectively engage with national security issues.
POLL RESULTS: Minnesota voters want state lawmakers to take action to address climate change and the issue generates political gains for candidates who support such action, Andrew Baumann and Katie Drapcho,, Global Strategy Group
A survey of likely Minnesota voters conducted by the authors in September 2022 not only finds that Minnesotans want state lawmakers to take action to reduce carbon emissions and tackle climate change, but also that such actions would give candidates who support strong climate action a political boost (and would damage candidates who oppose such action) with key voting blocs around the state – even after voters are exposed to a balanced debate on the topic. Large majorities of Minnesota voters think that lawmakers should support policies to encourage more clean energy and implement stronger limits on pollution, in part because Minnesota voters agree that climate change is threatening Minnesota’s agricultural economy, rural communities, and clean water. Minnesota voters also reject the premise that clean energy is mutually exclusive with a strong economy. Instead, they agree that transitioning to clean energy will be good for Minnesota’s economy and save families money.
2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, Awara et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory
The authors identify a range of possible futures for the U.S. electricity sector while seeking to illuminate specific energy system issues and discussing future trends in outcomes such as energy technology deployment and production, energy costs, and emissions. The authors summarize 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures.
Investigation of Fossil Fuel Industry Disinformation, Carolyn Maloney and Ro Khanna, Committee on Oversight and Reform, US House of Representatives
Today, the Committee is releasing additional documents obtained in the Committee’s investigation. These documents demonstrate how the fossil fuel industry “greenwashed” its public image with promises and actions that oil and gas executives knew would not meaningfully reduce emissions, even as the industry moved aggressively to lock in continued fossil fuel production for decades to come—actions that could doom global efforts to prevent catastrophic climate change. The fossil fuel industry’s failure to make meaningful investments in a long-term transition to cleaner energy is particularly outrageous in light of the enormous profits these companies are raking in at the expense of consumers—including nearly $100 billion in combined profits for Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP in just the last two quarters. The authors also address how the fossil fuel industry has tried to obstruct the Committee’s investigation and withhold key documents to prevent Congress and the American people from learning the truth about Big Oil’s greenwashing campaign and its refusal to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are the primary driver of the climate crisis.
US Heavy-Duty Transport & Climate Change, Influence Map
U.S. truck manufacturers are actively lobbying to weaken and delay key U.S. climate policies promoting zero-emission trucks, while simultaneously running PR campaigns that appear to promote the decarbonization of the sector. The analysis draws on thousands of pages of previously unseen lobbying documents found from 33 FOIA requests across 11 states. The Truck and Engine Manufacturers Association (EMA) has spearheaded a lobbying campaign in eight states to oppose the adoption of the state-based Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) rule, which accelerates the transition towards zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). New documents show the EMA has directly lobbied policymakers against ACT adoption in California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Washington. Notably, Maine and Colorado have yet to finalize the rulemaking process.
Farmers on the Front Lines How U.S. Investments in Climate Adaptation for Smallholders Can Support Global Food Security, Thomas Jayne, Farm Journal Foundation
Climate change is already tangibly affecting smallholder farmers in developing countries, and increased U.S. investments in agricultural development and innovation are needed to make global food systems more resilient and to alleviate hunger worldwide. While climate change is impacting agriculture all around the world, its effects are substantially more severe in warm regions including Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. As much as 80% of the world’s poor people, who predominantly work in agriculture, live in areas increasingly affected by climate change.
Arctic Report Card 2022, Drunkenmiller et al., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The warming Arctic reveals shifting seasons, widespread disturbances, and the value of diverse observations. Shifting seasons and climate-driven disturbances, such as wildfires, extreme weather, and unusual wildlife mortality events are becoming increasingly difficult to assess within the context of what has been previously considered normal. For example, the average surface air temperature over the Arctic for this past year (October 2021-September 2022) was the 6th warmest since 1900. The last seven years are collectively the warmest seven years on record. Low pressure across the Alaska Arctic and northern Canada sustained warm summer temperatures over the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Archipelago. The Arctic continues to warm more than twice as fast as the rest of the globe, with even greater warming in some locations and times of the year.
A Clean Energy Pathway for Southwestern Pennsylvania, Goodenbery et al, Strategen
The authors describe the development and analysis of a clean energy pathway for a 10-county region in southwestern Pennsylvania. Due to its abundance of fossil fuel resources, the region has a long history of substantial energy production, often at the expense of local environmental quality and economic diversity. A transition to clean energy provides a compelling opportunity to transform the local energy profile while ending the region’s overreliance on fossil fuels, reducing emissions, and pursuing a path of sustainable growth. To date, the prevailing narrative for decarbonizing this region has centered around the perpetuation of the natural gas industry and costly investments in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and infrastructure. The authors' analysis provides an alternative focused primarily on zero emissions resources, energy efficiency, increased electrification, and leveraging clean energy imports from outside the region while minimizing the local need for fossil fuels.
The 2022 EPA Automotive Trends Report, Environmental Protection Agency
The annual report is part of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) commitment to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers’ performance in meeting the agency’s GHG emissions standards. In model year 2021, the average estimated real-world CO2 emission rate for all new vehicles fell by 2 g/mi to 347 g/mi, the lowest ever measured. Real-world fuel economy remained at a record high 25.4 mpg. Since model year 2004, CO2 emissions have decreased 25% or 114 g/mi, and fuel economy has increased 32%, or 6.1 mpg. Over that time, CO2 emissions have improved in 14 of 17 years. Preliminary data suggest that CO2 emissions and fuel economy in model year 2022 will improve from the levels achieved in 2021.
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I mostly became mostly aware of the climate and global warming issue about the time that Al Gore began beating the drum (even while he continued to fly globally in his private jet). Since then, I've read about climate change and climate modeling from many sources, including ones taking the position that ‘it is not a question if it is a big-time issue, but what to do about it now, ASAP?’.
In the past few weeks, it appeared to me there has been a of articles, issued reports, and federal government activity, including recently approved legislation, related to this topic. While it obviously has been one of the major global topics for the past 3+ decades, the amount of public domain ‘heightened activity’ seems (to me) to come in waves every 4-6 months. That said, I decided to write on the topic based on what I learned and observed over time from articles, research reports, and TV/newspaper interviews.
There clearly are folks, associations, formal and informal groups, and even governments on both sides of the topic (issue). I also have seen over the decades how the need for and the flow of money sometimes (many times?) taints the results of what appear to be ‘expert-driven and expert-executed’ quantitative research. For example, in medical research some of the top 5% of researchers have been found altering their data and conclusions because of the source of their research funding, peer ‘industry’ pressure and/or pressure from senior academic administrators.
Many climate and weather-related articles state that 95+% of researchers agree on major climate changes; however (at least to me) many appear to disagree on the short-medium-longer term implications and timeframes.
What I conclude (as of now)
1. This as a very complex subject about which few experts have been correct.
2. We are learning more and more every day about this subject, and most of what we learn suggests that what we thought we knew isn't really correct or at least as perfectly accurate as many believe.
3. The U.S. alone cannot solve whatever problem exists. If we want to do something constructive, build lots of nuclear power plants ASAP (more on that to follow)!
4. Any rapid reduction in the use of fossil fuels will devastate many economies, especially those like China, India, Africa and most of Asia. Interestingly, the U.S. can probably survive a 3 or 4% reduction in carbon footprint annually over the next 15 years better than almost any country in the world, but this requires the aforementioned construction of multiple nuclear electrical generating facilities. In the rest of the world, especially the developing world, their economies will crash, and famine would ensue; not a pretty picture.
5. I am NOT a reflexive “climate denier” but rather a real-time skeptic that humans will be rendered into bacon crisps sometime in the next 50, 100 or 500+ years!
6. One reason I'm not nearly as concerned as others is my belief in the concept of ‘progress’. Look at what we accomplished as a society over the last century, over the last 50, 10, 5 and 3 years (e.g., Moore’s Law is the observation that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles about every two years!). It is easy to conclude that we will develop better storage batteries and better, more efficient electrical grids that will reduce our carbon footprint. I'm not so sure about China, India and the developing world!
7. So, don't put me down as a climate denier even though I do not believe that the climate is rapidly deteriorating or will rapidly deteriorate as a result of CO2 upload. Part of my calm on this subject is because I have read a lot about the ‘coefficient of correlation of CO2 and global warming, and I really don't think it's that high. I won't be around to know if I was right in being relaxed on this subject, but then I have more important things to worry about (including whether the NY Yankees can beat Houston in the ACLS playoffs, assuming they meet!).
My Net/Net (As of Now!)
I am not a researcher or a scientist, and I recognize I know far less than all there is to know on this very complex topic, and I am not a ‘climate change denier’… but, after
also reading a lot of material over the years from ‘the other side’ on this topic, I conclude it is monumentally blown out of proportion relative to those claiming: ‘the sky is falling and fast’!
• Read or skim the book by Steven Koonin: Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters /April 27, 2021; https://www.amazon.com/Unsettled-Climate-Science-Doesnt-Matters/dp/1950665798
• Google ‘satellite measures of temperature’; also, very revealing… see one attachment as an example.
• Look at what is happening in the Netherlands and Sri Lanka! Adherence to UN and ESG mandates are starving countries; and it appears Canada is about to go over the edge!
• None of the climate models are accurate for a whole range of reasons; the most accurate oddly enough is the Russian model but that one is even wrong by orders of magnitude!
• My absolute favorite fact is that based on data from our own governmental observation satellites: the oceans have been rising over the last 15 years at the astonishing rate of 1/8th of an inch annually; and my elementary mathematics suggests that if this rate continues, the sea will rise by an inch sometime around 2030 and by a foot in the year 2118… so, no need to buy a lifeboat if you live in Miami, Manhattan, Boston, Los Angeles, or San Francisco!
• Attached is a recent article and a Research Report summary.
Probably the most damning is the Research Report comparison of the climate model predictions from 2000, pointing to 2020 versus the actual increase in temperature that has taken place in that timeframe (Pages 9-13). It's tough going and I suggest you just read the yellow areas on Page 9 (the Abstract and Introduction, very short) and the 2 Conclusions on Page 12. But the point is someone is going to the trouble to actually analyze this data on global warming coefficients!
My Observations and Thinking
In the 1970s Time Magazine ran a cover story about our entering a new Ice Age. Sometime in the early 1990s, I recall a climate scientist sounding the first warning about global warming and the potentially disastrous consequences. He specifically predicted high temperatures and massive floods in the early 2000’s. Of course, that did not occur; however, others picked up on his concern and began to drive it forward, with Al Gore being one of the primary voices of climate concern. He often cited the work in the 1990’s of a climate scientist at Penn State University who predicted a rapid increase in temperature, supposedly occurring in 2010 and, of course, this also did not occur.
Nonetheless many scientists from various disciplines also began to warn about global warming starting in the early 2000’s. It was this growing body of ‘scientific’ concern that stimulated Al Gore's concern and his subsequent movie. It would be useful for you to go back to that and review the apocalyptic pronouncements from that time; most of which predicted dire consequences, high temperatures, massive flooding, etc. which were to occur in 10 or 12 years, certainly by 2020. None of this even closely occurred to the extent they predicted.
That said, I was still generally aware of the calamities predicted by a large and diverse body of global researchers and scientists, even though their specific predictions did not take place in the time frame or to the extent that they predicted. As a result, I become a ‘very casual student’ of climate modeling.
Over the past 15 years climate modeling has become a popular practice in universities, think-tanks and governmental organizations around the globe. Similar to medical and other research (e.g., think-tanks, etc.) I recognized that some of the work may have been driven by folks looking for grants and money to keep them and their staff busy.
A climate model is basically a multi-variate model in which the dependent variable is global temperature. All of these models try to identify the independent variables which drive change in global temperature. These independent variables range from parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to sunspot activity, the distance of the earth from the sun, ocean temperatures, cloud cover, etc. The challenge of a multi-variant model is first to identify all of the various independent variables affecting the climate and then to estimate the percent contribution to global warming made by a change in any of these independent variables. For example, what would be the coefficient of correlation for an increase in carbon dioxide parts per million to global warming?
You might find that an interesting cocktail party question to ask your friends “what is the coefficient of correlation between the increase in carbon dioxide parts per million and the effect on global warming?” I would be shocked if any of them even understood what you were saying and flabbergasted if they could give you an intelligent answer! There are dozens of these climate models. You might be surprised that none of them has been particularly accurate if we go back 12 years to 2010, for example, and look at the prediction that the models made for global warming in ten years, by 2020, and how accurate any given model would be.
An enterprising scientist did go back and collected the predictions from a score of climate models and found that a model by scientists from Moscow University was actually closer to being accurate than any of the other models. But the point is none were accurate! They all were wrong on the high side, dramatically over predicting the actual temperature in 2020. Part of the problem was that in several of those years, there was no increase in the global temperature at all. This caused great consternation among global warming believers and the scientific community!
A particularly interesting metric relates to the rise in the level of the ocean. Several different departments in the U.S. government actually measures this important number. You might be surprised to know, as stated earlier, that over the past 15 or so years the oceans have risen at the dramatic rate of 1/8th of an inch annually. This means that if the oceans continued to rise at that level, we would see a rise of an inch in about 8 years, sometime around 2030, and a rise of a foot sometime around the year 2118. I suspect Barack Obama had seen this data and that's why he was comfortable in buying an oceanfront estate on Martha's Vineyard when his presidency ended!
The ‘Milankovitch Theory’ (a Serbian astrophysicist Milutin Milankovitch, after whom the Milankovitch Climate Theory is named, proposed about how the seasonal and latitudinal variations of solar radiation that hit the earth in different and at different times have the greatest impact on earth's changing climate patterns) states that as the earth proceeds on its orbit, and as the axis shifts, the earth warms and cools depending on where it is relative to the sun over a 100,000-year, and 40,000-year cycle. Milankovitch cycles are involved in long-term changes to Earth's climate as the cycles operate over timescales of tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years.
So, consider this: we did not suddenly get a lot more CO2 in the atmosphere this year than we had in 2019 (or other years!), but maybe the planet has shifted slightly as the Milankovitch Theory states, and is now a little closer to the sun, which is why we have the massive drought. Nothing man has done would suddenly make the drought so severe, but a shift in the axis or orbit bringing the planet a bit closer to the sun would. It just seems logical to me. NASA publicly says that the theory is accurate, so it seems that is the real cause; but the press and politicians will claim it is all man caused! You can shut down all oil production and junk all the vehicles, and it will not matter per the Theory! Before the mid-1800’s there were no factories or cars, but the earth cooled and warmed, glaciers formed and melted, and droughts and massive floods happened. The public is up against the education industrial complex of immense corruption!
In the various and universally wrong ‘climate models’, one of the ‘independent’ variables is similar to the Milankovitch Theory. Unfortunately, it is not to the advantage of the climate cabal to admit this or more importantly give it the importance it probably deserves.
People who are concerned about the climate often cite an ‘increase in forest fires, hurricanes, heat waves, etc. as proof of global warming’. And many climate deniers point out that most forest fires are proven to be caused by careless humans tossing cigarettes into a pile of leaves or leaving their campfire unattended, and that there has been a dramatic decrease globally on deaths caused by various climate factors. I often read from climate alarmists (journalists, politicians, friends, etc.), what I believe are ‘knee-jerk’ responses since they are not supported by meaningful and relevant data/facts, see typical comments below:
• “The skeptical climate change deniers remind me of the doctors hired by the tobacco industry to refute the charges by the lung cancer physicians that tobacco smoke causes lung cancer. The planet is experiencing unprecedented extreme climate events: droughts, fires, floods etc. and the once in 500-year catastrophic climate event seems to be happening every other year. Slow motion disasters are very difficult to deal with politically. When a 200-mph hurricane hits the east coast and causes a trillion dollars in losses then will deal with it and then climate deniers will throw in the towel!”
These above comments may be right, but to date the forecasts on timing implications across all the models are wrong! It just ‘may be’ in 3, 10 or 50 years… or in 500-5000+ before the ‘sky is falling’ devastating events directly linked to climate occur. If some of the forecasts, models were even close to accuracy to date I would feel differently.
I do not deny there are climate related changes I just don’t see any evidence their impact is anywhere near the professional researchers’ forecasts/models on their impact as well as being ‘off the charts’ different than has happened in the past 100-1000+ years.
But a larger question is “suppose various anthropogenetic actions (e.g., chiefly environmental pollution and pollutants originating in human activity like anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide) are causing global warming?”. What are they, who is doing it, and what do we do about it? The first thing one must do is recognize that this is a global problem and that therefore the actions of any one country has an effect on the overall climate depending upon its population and actions. Many in the United States focus intensely upon reducing carbon emissions in the U.S. when of course the U.S. is only 5% of the world population. We are however responsible for a disproportionate part of the global carbon footprint; we contribute about 12%. The good news is that the U.S. has dramatically reduced its share of the global carbon footprint over the past 20 years and doing so while dramatically increasing our GDP (up until the 1st Half of 2022).
Many factors have contributed to the relative reduction of the U.S. carbon footprint. Chief among these are much more efficient automobiles and the switch from coal-driven electric generation plants to those driven by natural gas, a much cleaner fossil fuel.
While the U.S. is reducing its carbon footprint more than any other country in the world, China has dramatically increased its carbon footprint and now contributes about 30% of the carbon expelled into the atmosphere. China is also building 100 coal-fired plants!
Additional facts, verified by multiple sources including SNOPES, the U.,S. government, engineering firms, etc.:
• No big signatories to the Paris Accord are now complying; the U.S. is out-performing all of them.
• EU is building 28 new coal plants; Germany gets 40% of its power from 84 coal plants; Turkey is building 93 new coal plants, India 446, South Korea 26, Japan 45, China has 2363 coal plants and is building 1174 new ones; the U.S. has 15 and is building no new ones and will close about 15 coal plants.
• Real cost example: Windmills need power plants run on gas for backup; building one windmill needs 1100 tons of concrete & rebar, 370 tons of steel, 1000 lbs of mined minerals (e.g., rare earths, iron and copper) + very long transmission lines (lots of copper & rubber covering for those) + many transmission towers… rare earths come from the Uighur areas of China (who use slave labor), cobalt comes from places using child labor and use lots of oil to run required rock crushers... all to build one windmill! One windmill also has a back-up, inefficient, partially running, gas-powered generating plant to keep the grid functioning! To make enough power to really matter, we need millions of acres of land & water, filled with windmills which consume habitats & generate light distortions and some noise, which can create health issues for humans and animals living near a windmill (this leaves out thousands of dead eagles and other birds).
• So, if we want to decrease the carbon footprint on the assumption that this is what is driving the rise in the sea levels (see POV that sea levels are not rising at: www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRChoNTg) and any increase in global temperature, we need to figure out how to convince China, India and the rest of the world from fouling the air with fossil fuels. In fact, if the U.S. wanted to dramatically reduce its own carbon footprint, we would immediately begin building 30 new nuclear electrical generating plants around the country! France produces about 85% of its electrical power from its nuclear-driven generators. Separately, but related, do your own homework on fossil fuels (e.g., oil) versus electric; especially on the big-time move to electric and hybrid vehicles. Engineering analyses show you need to drive an electric car about 22 years (a hybrid car about 15-18 years) to breakeven on the savings versus the cost involved in using fossil fuels needed to manufacture, distribute and maintain an electric car! Also, see page 14 on the availability inside the U.S. of oil to offset what the U.S. purchases from the middle east and elsewhere, without building the Keystone pipeline from Canada.
Two 4-5-minute videos* on the climate change/C02/new green deal issue, in my opinion, should be required viewing in every high school and college; minimally because it provides perspective and data on the ‘other’ side of the issue while the public gets bombarded almost daily by the ‘sky is falling now or soon’ side on climate change!
* https://www.prageru.com/video/is-there-really-a-climate-emergency and
https://www.prageru.com/video/climate-change-whats-so-alarming
[DB] Gish Gallop snipped. Please use the Search function to place comments and questions on the most appropriate chat threads. Simply dumping everything minus a kitchen sink into one comment is a Gish Gallop, and in violation of this venue's Comments Policy. Please read that policy and better construct future comments to comply with it. Thanks!
I suggest to enter this one in a new, specially created category: longest, most tedious Gish-Gallop ever. I can't recall any previous utterance that would have a chance to compete; congratulations, you win. The enormous amount of verbiage does not manage to hide the lack of specifics, which itself is beaten by the lack of substantiation, the latter being still far behind the lack of understanding of the many subjects grazed. Koonin and 10 minutes of PragerU? Consider me unimpressed...
But Philippe, he seems to have worked very hard finding the answers that confirmed his predetermined conclusions. (sarc)
I am still struggling with our involvement with Co2 at .04 of 1% and water vapor is the main ghg factor at a hundred times more the effect at up to 4% of the total volume. Humidity and clouds cannot be modeled, tracked or controlled, which will be vexing to all the white knights out there. And now we are considering dangerously affecting hoydrogen which is 78.02% of our atmosphere? I am not getting the data here that we have the power or culpability to be significant in these regards. But I seriously question whether we can affect anything involving 78% of our entire atmosphere. Is this serious?
Peppers @ 4:
Your first sentence covers two standard myths, found on the SkS list of "Most used climate myths" (upper left of every page - here is a direct link to the list).
Your second sentence in nonsense. Humidity and clouds are indeed modelled and tracked. After all, we know that humidity exists (and changes with location and time), and I can see clouds out my window right now. We have long-standing data sets recording both for well over a century. Weather forecasts and climate models routinely include both in their calculations.
Controlling clouds and humidity? Maybe there you have a bit of a point. On a global scale, our "control" is limited to the changes we are causing due to warming caused by our emissions of CO2. (Read the above lings on trace gas and water vapor.)
In the rest of your paragraph, you seem to be confusing hydrogen and nitrogen. Nitrogen is 78% of the atmospheric gases. Hydrogen is less than 1%. And the information in the original post is how hydrogen will affect methane concentrations.
Whatever is guiding your understanding, you really badly need to find some better sources of information (or find a way of getting a better understanding of what you are reading).
Peppers
"Humidity and clouds cannot be modeled, tracked or controlled, which will be vexing to all the white knights out there."
We do have an understanding of clouds. Latest research:
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/12/climate-change-clouds-equilibrium-sensitivity/
Peppers: "Is this serious?"
Peppers, every week we include a huge clue to the answer for that question. It's the author count for the given week's edition of New Research. This week it's 1,261. Last week it was 1,011. The week before that, 848. Prior, 904. Then 1,320. Keep going back. It adds up.
"Argument by authority?" No, these numbers help to quantify something called "consilience." Here consilience is overwhelmingly powerful.
But perhaps this consilience is somehow wrong and you've twigged to an astoundingly remarkable realization, here in the unlikely locale of an obscure comments thread. Somehow all these thousands of experts in diverse fields in theoretical and observational consistency and agreement have been wrong all along, and you're the solo super genius who has penetrated the fog all by yourself, using simple principles found 'round the home. Granted that's as probable as if you'd spewed a loose deck of cards into the air in a strong wind and had it come back down neatly stacked and in order. But not strictly impossible. Or at least not according to the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
So do keep talking, if you don't mind sounding rather foolish in the face of very long odds.
[For the bystander worrying that Peppers is getting short shrift, on another thread here at Skeptical Science this same person can be found arguing that hate speech on the internet is a problem mostly for people who've invited it. Here and there, Peppers is either starkly uninformed but willing to assert ignorance as capable of forming conclusions, or having a bit of odd fun. Either way, this needs a sharp yank on the leash, a pointer to the virtue called humility.]
" people in the US are moving from areas facing one type of climate risk and straight into other affected regions, only with different specific risks. In... Flocking to fire.... Clark, Nkonya & Galford examine these accidental choices and offer advice to policymakers."
The most conspicuous example may the Fox News anchors who winter on Florida
https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2022/09/pride-goeth-before-squall.html
It's not a big risk for Carlson; he probably has other beachfront homes and more. He probably believes the new climate change is for real, but he's ethically challenged. He makes money fighting climate science.