Skeptical Science New Research for Week #7 2022

Posted on 17 February 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Injury and insult

A quick visit to DeSmog's climate disinformation database and scrutinization of funding sources (select "organizations") illustrates how the fossilized fossil energy industry has financed public misunderstanding  and ignorance of the impact of hydrocarbon comubustion CO2 emissions on Earth's climate system. By so doing, these miscreants have vastly delayed our escape from their crude, antiquated and dangerous energy products, thereby causing harm to us all. As the old saw goes, "you can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time." Let alone "all," by this late date a distinct minority of folks are still deceived by old-school climate science denial.

With ugly warts in plain view to most of us, the fossil fuel industry is moving on to cosmetic treatments and products. There's a distinct aroma of feel-good appeals touting token initiatives in the air; given the industry's track record on truth, the cynicism we may feel in our gut when seeing soft-focus advertising pitching vague promises about better behavior in the future is well justified. Are our gut instincts correct?  Trio of genuine skeptics (aka "scientists") Mei Li, Gregory Trencher and Jusen Asaka employ formal methods to provide us a gut-check. Our visceral response appears to be correct. The clean energy claims of BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell: A mismatch between discourse, actions and investments explores claims versus reality for fossil fuel giants and finds what we expect from previous behavior: public messaging on cleaning up a messy act is itself mostly acting, theatrical display. From the abstract: 

We found a strong increase in discourse related to “climate”, “low-carbon” and “transition”, especially by BP and Shell. Similarly, we observed increasing tendencies toward strategies related to decarbonization and clean energy. But these are dominated by pledges rather than concrete actions. Moreover, the financial analysis reveals a continuing business model dependence on fossil fuels along with insignificant and opaque spending on clean energy. We thus conclude that the transition to clean energy business models is not occurring, since the magnitude of investments and actions does not match discourse.

By this point in our tiresome history of being lied to, if we're not feeing injured and insulted then we're not paying attention. Apparently this industry feels that their customers are extremely stupid and is not at all hesitant to exploit our weakness. They will succeed to the extent that we're truly dimwitted and earn the insult. 

Other notables:

Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines delivers news that will massively affect the value of massive amounts of real property in the not-so-distant future. Public policy is struggling in the face of a form of denial in connection with property value in affected areas, but unfortunately this denial will not prevail against SLR. This report tells us the cold facts. 

Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability. Good news: tipping points are not synonymous with disaster. The authors identify potential mechanisms for "snowball effects" in dealing with our sustainability challenges, "positive tipping points across social-technological-ecological systems."

Vertical stratification of the air microbiome in the lower troposphere. In the "who'd have guessed it" department, microorganisms (bioaerosols) living in the atmosphere will find themselves lofted into new places as the atmosphere warms. 

All of the above open access and free to read. 

100 articles in 45 journals by 535 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Causes for the increase of early-season freezing events under a warmer climate at alpine Treelines in southeast Tibet
Shen et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108863

Observations of climate change, effects

(provisional link) Atmospheric river precipitation enhanced by climate change: A case study of the storm that contributed to California’s Oroville Dam crisis

Rising risks of compound extreme heat-precipitation events in China
Ning et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7561

Seasonal circulation regimes in the North Atlantic: towards a new seasonality
Breton et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7565

Impacts of climate modes on temperature extremes over Bangladesh using statistical methods
Uddin et al. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
10.1007/s00703-022-00868-8

The role of sea surface temperature variability in changes to global surface air temperature related to two periods of warming slowdown since 1940
Xu et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-022-06139-x

(provisional link) Rapid acidification of the Arctic Chukchi Sea waters driven by anthropogenic forcing and biological carbon recycling

The Increasing Role of Vegetation Transpiration in Soil Moisture Loss across China under Global Warming
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jhm-d-21-0132.1

Proportion and Distribution of Rain and Snow in China from 1960 to 2018
Journal of Hydrometeorology
10.1175/jhm-d-21-0129.1

Estimated changes in different forms of precipitation (snow, sleet, and rain) across China: 1961–2016
Su et al. Atmospheric Research
Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106078

(provisional link) Detectable Human Influence on Changes in Precipitation Extremes across China
10.1029/2021EF002409

Climate warming outweighed agricultural managements in affecting wheat phenology across China during 1981–2018
Tao et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108865

The Anomalously Cold January 2017 in the South-Eastern Europe in a Warming Climate
Demirta? International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7574

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, contributors, effects Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

(provisional link) Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100
10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf

Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century
Nielsen et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01281-0

The effect of greenhouse gases concentration and urbanization on future temperature over Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in China
Zheng et al. Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-021-06103-1

Exacerbated heat in large Canadian cities
Rajulapati et al. Urban Climate
10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101097

Impact of climate change on meteorological and hydrological droughts for Upper Coruh Basin, Turkey
Y?lmaz et al. Natural Hazards
10.1007/s11069-022-05217-x

Slow and soft passage through tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing climate
Kim et al. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-022-00236-8

The Increasing Role of Vegetation Transpiration in Soil Moisture Loss across China under Global Warming
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Open Access pdf 10.1175/jhm-d-21-0132.1

Changes in extreme integrated water vapor transport on the U.S. west coast in NA-CORDEX, and relationship to mountain and inland precipitation
Hughes et al.
Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-493528/v1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection GCMA

Multivariate bias-correction of high-resolution regional climate change simulations for West Africa: performance and climate change implications
Dieng et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
10.1029/2021jd034836

Bivariate bias correction of the regional climate model ensemble over the Adriatic region
Sokol Jurkovi? et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7564

A CMIP6 ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America
Mahony et al. International Journal of Climatology
Open Access 10.1002/joc.7566

(provisional link) Role of Sea-Surface Salinity in Simulating Historical Decadal Variations of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model

Cryosphere & climate change

Arctic glaciers record wavier circumpolar winds
Sasgen et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-021-01275-4

Reconciling persistent sub-zero temperatures in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, with Neogene dynamic marine ice-sheet fluctuations
Halberstadt et al. Geology
Open Access pdf 10.1130/g49664.1

Sea level & climate change

African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates
Vousdoukas et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1

Paleoclimate

Ice sheet decline and rising atmospheric CO₂ control AMOC sensitivity to deglacial meltwater discharge
Sun et al. Global and Planetary Change
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103755

Biology & climate change

Targeting current species ranges and carbon stocks fails to conserve biodiversity in a changing climate: opportunities to support climate adaptation under 30 × 30
Dreiss et al.
Open Access pdf 10.1101/2021.08.31.458416

Multiple drivers of large-scale lichen decline in boreal forest canopies
Esseen et al. Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16128

Spatiotemporal Climate Variability in the Andes of Northern Peru: Evaluation of Gridded Datasets to Describe Cloud Forest Microclimate and Local Rainfall
Newell et al. International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7567

Long-term effects of contrasting pCO2 levels on the scope for growth in the carnivorous gastropod Concholepas concholepas
Navarro et al. Marine Environmental Research
10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105586

Simulated future trends in marine nitrogen fixation are sensitive to model iron implementation
Yao et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
10.1029/2020gb006851

Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts
Vaissi Scientific Reports
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-06330-4

Vertical stratification of the air microbiome in the lower troposphere
Drautz-Moses et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2117293119

Temperature and the maturation of fish: a simple sine-wave model for predicting accelerated spring spawning
Pauly & Liang Environmental Biology of Fishes
10.1007/s10641-022-01212-0

(provisional link) Deep learning projects future warming-induced vegetation growth changes under SSP scenarios

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

(provisional link) Multidecadal trends in organic carbon flux through a grassland river network shaped by human controls and climatic cycles

Development of sectorial and territorial information system to monitor GHG emissions as local and regional climate governance tool: Case study in Valencia (Spain)
Lorenzo-Sáez et al. Urban Climate
Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101125

Retention of deposited ammonium and nitrate and its impact on the global forest carbon sink
Gurmesa et al. Nature Communications
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-28345-1

Pyrogenic carbon decomposition critical to resolving fire’s role in the Earth system
Bowring et al. Nature Geoscience
10.1038/s41561-021-00892-0

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Accounting for local temperature effect substantially alters afforestation patterns
Windisch et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4f0e

(provisional link) Climate sensitivities of carbon turnover times in soil and vegetation: understanding their effects on forest carbon sequestration

Decarbonization

Impacts of 319 wind farms on surface temperature and vegetation in the United States
Qin et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac49ba

Risk-adjusted preferences of utility companies and institutional investors for battery storage and green hydrogen investment
Côté & Salm Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112821

Local residents’ attitudes about wind farms and associated noise annoyance in South Korea
Ki et al. Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112847

Friends with benefits: How income and peer diffusion combine to create an inequality “trap” in the uptake of low-carbon technologies
Stewart Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112832

Tilting at windmills? Electoral repercussions of wind turbine projects in Minnesota
Bayulgen et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112636

Stylized least-cost analysis of flexible nuclear power in deeply decarbonized electricity systems considering wind and solar resources worldwide
Duan et al. Nature Energy
10.1038/s41560-022-00979-x

Climate change communications & cognition

The clean energy claims of BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell: A mismatch between discourse, actions and investments
Li et al. PLOS ONE
Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pone.0263596

Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts
Rasmussen et al.
Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10503428.3

Different names for “natural gas” influence public perception of it
Lacroix et al. Journal of Environmental Psychology
Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101671

The effects of serious gaming on risk perceptions of climate tipping points
van Beek et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03318-x

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Past and future rainfall changes in the Australian midlatitudes and implications for agriculture
Waha et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-021-03301-y

Carbon footprint of cows’ milk: a case study of peri-urban and urban dairy farms within Mekelle milk-shed, Ethiopia
Balcha et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2022.2039301

Adapting to climate change precisely through cultivars renewal for rice production across China: When, where, and what cultivars will be required?
Zhang et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108856

Projecting future changes in extreme climate for maize production in the North China Plain and the role of adjusting the sowing date
Xiao et al. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
10.1007/s11027-022-09995-4

Optimizing sowing window, cultivar choice, and plant density to boost maize yield under RCP8.5 climate scenario of CMIP5
Ali et al. International Journal of Biometeorology
10.1007/s00484-022-02253-x

Persistent soil carbon enhanced in Mollisols by well-managed grasslands but not annual grain or dairy forage cropping systems
Rui et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2118931119

Assessing the risk of climate change to aquaculture: a national-scale case study for the Sultanate of Oman
Engelhard et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100416

Climate warming outweighed agricultural managements in affecting wheat phenology across China during 1981–2018
Tao et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108865

Does crop insurance inhibit climate change technology adoption?
Sellars et al. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
10.1007/s11027-022-09998-1

(provisional link) Climate-related disasters and agricultural land conversion: towards prevention policies

Hydrology & climate change

Global Water Availability and Its Distribution under CMIP6 Scenarios
Li & Li International Journal of Climatology
10.1002/joc.7559

A Multivariate Flash Drought Indicator for Identifying Global Hotspots and Associated Climate Controls
Mukherjee & Mishra Geophysical Research Letters
10.1029/2021gl096804

Climate change economics

Macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy sectors of southern European islands
Vrontisi et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-022-03310-5

The price of actor diversity: Measuring project developers’ willingness to accept risks in renewable energy auctions
Côté et al. Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112835

Revisiting the role of international climate finance (ICF) towards achieving the nationally determined contribution (NDC) target: A case study of the Indonesian energy sector
Suroso et al. Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2022.01.022

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system
Moore et al. Nature
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-022-04423-8

Sensitive intervention points in China's coal phaseout
Heerma van Voss & Rafaty Energy Policy
Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112797

Why marginal CO2 emissions are not decreasing for US electricity: Estimates and implications for climate policy
Holland et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2116632119

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C
Edwards et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ec2

Net Zero and the potential of consumer data - United Kingdom energy sector case study: The need for cross-sectoral best data practice principles
Liu et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112803

Finding the sweet spot in climate policy: balancing stakeholder engagement with bureaucratic autonomy
Wellstead & Biesbroek Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101155

Environmental outcomes of the US Renewable Fuel Standard
Lark et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2101084119

Tilting at windmills? Electoral repercussions of wind turbine projects in Minnesota
Bayulgen et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112636

Impacts of poverty alleviation on national and global carbon emissions
Bruckner et al. Nature Sustainability
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-021-00842-z

Working time, inequality and carbon emissions in the United States: A multi-dividend approach to climate change mitigation
Fitzgerald Energy Research & Social Science
10.1016/j.erss.2021.102385

Climate policy conflict in the U.S. states: a critical review and way forward
Basseches et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03319-w

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Towards a deeper understanding of barriers to national climate change adaptation policy: A systematic review
Lee et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100414

Leveraging SETS resilience capabilities for safe-to-fail infrastructure under climate change
Kim et al. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101153

Coastal communities’ responses to climate change and variability impacts: a threat to coastal and marine resources?
Rubekie et al. Climate and Development
10.1080/17565529.2021.2018984

Climate Adaptation for Tropical Island Land Stewardship: Adapting a Workshop Planning Process to Hawai‘i
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0163.1

Transformative adaptation as a sustainable response to climate change: insights from large-scale case studies
Filho et al. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Open Access 10.1007/s11027-022-09997-2

Climate change adaptation (CCA) research in Nepal: implications for the advancement of adaptation planning
Karki et al. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-021-09991-0

Adapting to extreme events: small drinking water system manager perspectives on the 2012–2016 California Drought
Klasic et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03305-8

Integrating an intrahousehold perspective into climate change adaptation research
Hung & Wang Environmental Science & Policy
10.1016/j.envsci.2022.02.004

Climate change impacts on human health

Adaptive capacity to extreme urban heat: the dynamics of differing narratives
Guardaro et al. Climate Risk Management
Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100415

Alternate patterns of temperature variation bring about very different disease outcomes at different mean temperatures
Kunze et al.
Open Access pdf 10.1101/2021.08.31.458468

Spatial analysis of outdoor wet bulb globe temperature under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for 2041–2080 across a range of temperate to hot climates
Hall et al. Weather and Climate Extremes
Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100420

Increasing Heat-Stress Inequality in a Warming Climate
Alizadeh et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002488

Climate change impacts on human culture

African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates
Vousdoukas et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1

Other

Decolonizing climate change–heritage research
Simpson et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01279-8

Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021
Williams et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01290-z

Decolonizing climate change–heritage research
Simpson et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-022-01279-8

Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change: verification for temperature and precipitation changes from years 1971–2000 to 2011–2020
Räisänen Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06182-8

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Tackling the climate, biodiversity and pollution emergencies by making peace with nature 50 years after the Stockholm Conference
Baste & Watson Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102466

Climate change research in southern Africa in recent two decades: progress, needs, and policy implications
Kapuka et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-022-01886-3

The Glasgow leaders’ declaration on forests and land use: Significance toward “Net Zero”
Nasi Global Change Biology
Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16039

Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability
Lenton et al. Global Sustainability
Open Access pdf 10.1017/sus.2021.30

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Engaging The Chain: Driving Speed And Scale. CDP Global Supply Chain Report 2021 (pdf), CDP

A company’s supply chain is responsible for substantial environmental impacts. Last year, CDP found that GHG emissions in a company’s supply chain are, on average, 11.4 times higher than its operational emissions. This chain of environmental risk is not just an opportunity to look beyond companies’ own emissions and cascade their ambition; it is now the only way to leverage change at the scale required. The report explores the environmental impact caused by supply chains and the actions buyers are taking to reduce them.

Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines (pdf), Sweet et al., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The report and accompanying datasets from the U.S. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force provide 1) sea level rise scenarios to 2150 by decade that include estimates of vertical land motion and 2) a set of extreme water level probabilities for various heights along the U.S. coastline. These data are available at 1-degree grids along the U.S. coastline and downscaled specifically at NOAA tide-gauge locations. Estimates of flood exposure are assessed using contemporary U.S. coastal flood-severity thresholds for current conditions, e.g., sea levels and infrastructure footprint and for the next 30 years out to year 2050, assuming no additional risk reduction measures are enacted.

Evaluating Climate Risk in NEPA Reviews: Current Practices and Recommendations for Reform, Webb et al., Columbia Law School and Environmental Defense Fund

In recent years, policymakers, practitioners, and scholars have increasingly considered how climate change should factor into existing environmental review obligations, including review of U.S. federal agency actions under the 1969 National Environmental Policy Act (“NEPA”). Attention thus far has focused primarily on the critical question of how to account for an action’s contribution to climate change via direct, indirect, or cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. However, less focus has been given to the equally critical question of how actions will be affected by, and can prepare for, the impacts of climate change. The paper combines an extensive review of previously conducted Environmental Impact Statements (“EIS”) with an examination of the legal framework, current practices, and next steps for integrating that latter category of climate effects—what we term “climate impact analysis”—into NEPA reviews. The authors conclude that, in order for federal agencies to fulfill their legal obligations under NEPA, the EISs they prepare must contain a comprehensive climate impact analysis. Drawing on previously identified best practices, the authors define three key requirements for climate impact analysis, namely that the analysis be: 1. Holistic, meaning that it considers all reasonably foreseeable climate impacts and the risks they pose to all elements of the proposed action and alternatives. 2. Specific, which requires the use of climate data that is tailored to the proposed action’s area, timescale, and other relevant characteristics. 3. Actionable, providing the agency with the information it needs to take action to address climate-related risks.

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Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

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