Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2023

Posted on 14 December 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

The distortionary effects of unconstrained for-profit carbon dioxide removal and the need for early governance intervention, Grubert & Talati, Carbon Management:

We argue that the emerging tendency toward market-based, unconstrained, and for-profit CDR presents fundamental and predictable risks for climate and justice goals. Such a model incentivizes growth in profitable compensatory removal applications, effectively allocating limited resources based on ability to pay rather than public good, while also increasing the amount of CDR required to meet global climate targets. “Luxury” removals that could otherwise be mitigated not only displace, but actively disincentivize deployment for compensatory removals in high priority but low wealth applications, and for drawdown. Meeting these needs would likely become a socialized cost. Markets also establish unit-level property rights that require specific kinds of MRV that are misaligned with climate outcomes and face incentives for poor quality verification.

Global energy scenarios: A geopolitical reality check, Blondeel et al., Global Environmental Change:

Using a novel qualitative analytical framework, we review the extent to which a range of state-of-the-art global energy scenarios capture and reflect key issues in energy geopolitics in their narratives and model implementation. We find that few scenarios consider geopolitics in any depth. Those that do often treat it as a barrier to decarbonisation efforts that are aligned with the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement. Normative, Paris-aligned scenarios describe smooth processes of change where cooperation and coordination between countries are assumed and where geopolitics is often completely absent. 

The central bank lacuna in green state transformation, Bailey & Jackson, Environmental Politics:

In this article, we draw into focus central banks as pronounced, if ill-considered, features of green state transformations in both theory and practice. Central banks exemplify the intractability, incrementalism and limitations of actually existing green state transformations. Yet simultaneously, these institutions of economic governance are, at least theoretically, vital constituents of fully fledged green states. In addressing the central bank lacuna in the analysis of green state transformation, we propose a research agenda at the intersection of environmental and monetary politics that centres on (i) the institutional variation and convergence of central banks across the global economy, (ii) the political-economic and institutional constraints on green institutional transformation, and (iii) the theoretical constituents and operations of a truly ‘green’ central bank.

Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst-case scenarios of climate change, Davidson & Kemp, WIREs Climate Change:

Critics of climate catastrophe often group together all visions of disastrous futures under labels like doomism or pessimism. This is unhelpful and greater nuance is required. We need to distinguish between climate doomists (who see catastrophe as imminent and unavoidable) and climate risk realists (who see catastrophe as one potential future that should be avoided). We also need to split apart the different ways of envisioning climate catastrophe to understand their distinct strengths and weaknesses. We outline and compare three alternative modes of viewing the worst-case scenarios of climate change: foresight, agitation, and fiction.

Commercial wind turbines and residential home values: New evidence from the universe of land-based wind projects in the United States, Brunner et al., Energy Policy:

Using event study and difference-in-differences identification strategies we find that, on average, homes located within 1 mile of a commercial wind turbine experience approximately an 11% decline in value following the announcement of a new commercial wind energy project, relative to counterfactual homes located 3 to 5 miles away. Event study estimates also reveal important dynamics in the evolution of home values, with property values first declining following project announcement, and then recovering post project construction, with property value impacts becoming relatively small (∼2%) and statistically insignificant 9 years or more after project announcement (roughly 5 years after operation began). Homes located within 1–2 miles of a commercial wind turbine experience much smaller impacts and homes located farther than 2 miles away are unaffected. 

Upland forest retreat lags behind sea-level rise in the mid-Atlantic coast, Chen & Kirwan, Global Change Biology:

Models of coastal transgression typically assume inundation of a static topography and instantaneous conversion of forest to marsh with rising seas. In contrast, here we use four decades of satellite observations to show that many low-elevation forests along the US mid-Atlantic coast have survived despite undergoing relative sea-level rise rates (RSLRR) that are among the fastest on Earth. Lateral forest retreat rates were strongly mediated by topography and seawater salinity, but not directly explained by spatial variability in RSLRR, climate, or disturbance. The elevation of coastal tree lines shifted upslope at rates correlated with, but far less than, contemporary RSLRR. Together, these findings suggest a multi-decadal lag between RSLRR and land conversion that implies coastal ecosystem resistance. Predictions based on instantaneous conversion of uplands to wetlands may therefore overestimate future land conversion in ways that challenge the timing of greenhouse gas fluxes and marsh creation, but also imply that the full effects of historical sea-level rise have yet to be realized.

Large majority of US adults and half of Republicans agree with Biden’s goal to slash climate pollution (from this week's government/NGO section): 

Nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults say they are worried about the threat of climate change in their communities, according to the poll. More than half are worried about the impact of extreme weather, as the climate crisis touches every region in the form of extreme heat, devastating storms and drought. Even more want the federal government to do something about it. A broad majority of U.S. adults – 73% – say the federal government should develop its climate policies with the goal of cutting the country’s planet-warming pollution in half by the end of the decade.

155 articles in 58 journals by 1093 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests, Nian et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01123-7

Strengthening Relationship between the AO and the Occurrence Frequency of Arctic Daily Warming since the 1980s, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0177.1

The impact of global warming on ENSO from the perspective of objective signals, Chen et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107176

The sensitivity of climate and climate change to the efficiency of atmospheric heat transport, Ge et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-07010-3

Transport of Anthropogenic Carbon From the Antarctic Shelf to Deep Southern Ocean Triggers Acidification, Zhang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2023gb007921

Observations of climate change, effects

Changes to Middle East and Southwest Asia Compound Drought and Heat since 1999, Hoell et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0194.1

Climate change in Brazil: evolutionary, comparative and forecast study, Menegassi et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04778-6

Combined Effect of Anthropogenic and “Natural” Carbon on Acidification of the Subsurface Ocean Water at the Tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, Zhan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc019935

Decrease of the spatial variability and local dimension of the Euro-Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream with global warming, Noyelle et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-07022-z

Rapid attribution of the record-breaking heatwave event in North China in June 2023 and future risks, Qian et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1088/1748-9326/ad0dd9

Recent summer warming over the western Mediterranean region is unprecedented since medieval times, Büntgen et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104336

Understanding changes in the timing of heavy storms: a regional case study of climate change impacts, Jiang et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03644-8

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A Warming Southern Gulf of Mexico: Reconstruction of Anthropogenic Environmental Changes From a Siderastrea siderea Coral on the Northern Coast of Cuba, Harbott et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023pa004717

Deep learning to extract the meteorological by-catch of wildlife cameras, Alison et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17078

Gap-Filled Multivariate Observations of Global Land–Climate Interactions, Bessenbacher et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039099

Monitoring glacier calving using underwater sound, T?gowski et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2023-115

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Climatological features of future mesoscale convective systems in convection-permitting climate models using CMIP6 and ERA5 in the central United States, Hwang et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1002/qj.4549

Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate, Zhou et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-07012-1

Future Amplification of Multivariate Risk of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events on South Asian Population, Ullah et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003688

Prediction of Clausius–Clapeyron Scaling of Daily Precipitation Extremes over China, Chen et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0030.1

Projection on elevation-dependent and latitude-dependent warming over Antarctica from CMIP6 under different socioeconomic scenarios, Zhu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104327

The Significance of the Melt-Pond Scheme in a CMIP6 Global Climate Model, Diamond et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0902.1

The Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and the Subsequent Surface Impacts as Consequences to Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Liang et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0128.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A Potential Reason for a More CP El Nino-Like SSTA Performance in CMIP6 Simulations, Wang & Lin, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105092

Aerosol characteristics in CMIP6 models' global simulations and their evaluation with the satellite measurements, Bharath et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8324

Comparison of UKESM1 and CESM2 simulations using the same multi-target stratospheric aerosol injection strategy, Henry et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023

Earth-system-model evaluation of cloud and precipitation occurrence for supercooled and warm clouds over the Southern Ocean's Macquarie Island, Stanford et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-9037-2023

Evaluating the Representation of Tropical Stratocumulus and Shallow Cumulus Clouds As Well As Their Radiative Effects in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite Observations, ?rnivec et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2022jd038437

How Well Do CMIP6 Models Simulate Salinity Barrier Layers in the North Indian Ocean?, Pang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0366.1

Improvement in the skill of CMIP6 decadal hindcasts for extreme rainfall events over the Indian summer monsoon region, Konda et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-48268-1

Insights of warm-cloud biases in Community Atmospheric Model 5 and 6 from the single-column modeling framework and Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) observations, Wang et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-8591-2023

Investigating the Performance of CMIP6 Seasonal Precipitation Predictions and a Grid Based Model Heterogeneity Oriented Deep Learning Bias Correction Framework, Huang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039046

On the Contribution of Transient Diabatic Processes to Ocean Heat Transport and Temperature Variability, Yung & Holmes, Journal of Physical Oceanography 10.1175/jpo-d-23-0046.1

Open Water in Sea Ice Causes High Bias in Polar Low-Level Clouds in GFDL CM4, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106322

Perturbing Parameters to Understand Cloud Contributions to Climate Change, Duffy et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0250.1

Strong aerosol cooling alone does not explain cold-biased mid-century temperatures in CMIP6 models, Flynn et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-15121-2023

Surface Turbulent Fluxes From the MOSAiC Campaign Predicted by Machine Learning, Cummins et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105698

Cryosphere & climate change

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty, Seroussi et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023

Monitoring glacier calving using underwater sound, T?gowski et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2023-115

Similarities and Differences in Arctic Sea-Ice Loss During the Solar-Forced Last Interglacial Warming (127 Kyr BP) and CO2-Forced Future Warming, Sicard et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104782

Snowmelt-Radiation Feedback Impact on Western U.S. Streamflow, Ban et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105118

Spatial characterization of near-surface structure and meltwater runoff conditions across the Devon Ice Cap from dual-frequency radar reflectivity, Chan et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-181

The infrastructure cost of permafrost degradation for the Northern Hemisphere, Jin et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102791

Sea level & climate change

Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application, Turner et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003550

Watershed sediment cannot offset sea level rise in most US tidal wetlands, Ensign et al., Science 10.1126/science.adj0513

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Rapid Climate Links Between High Northern Latitudes and Tropical Southeast Asia Over the Last 40 ka, Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107171

Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO2, et al., Science 10.1126/science.adi5177

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species, Aldea et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17079

Decline in small mammal species richness in coastal-central California, 1997–2013, Ghimirey et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10611

Decline of Tephroseris helenitis in Hessia (Germany) over the last 120 years: Modeling implies the gradual disappearance of its temperature niche for flower induction and germination, Griebeler & Kadereit, Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10769

Divergent responses of highly migratory species to climate change in the California Current, Lezama?Ochoa et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13800

Dynamically Downscaled Projections of Phenological Changes across the Contiguous United States, Mallard et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0071.1

Ecosystem indicators: predicting population responses to combined climate and anthropogenic changes in shallow seas, Trifonova & Scott, Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06925

Frost damage measured by electrolyte leakage in subarctic bryophytes increases with climate warming, van Zuijlen et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14236

Global temperature homogenization can obliterate temporal isolation in migratory animals with potential loss of population structure, Bom et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17069

Global Warming Weakens the Ocean Front and Phytoplankton Blooms in the Luzon Strait Over the Past 40 years, Lao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007726

How birds dissipate heat before, during and after flight, Giardina et al., FEBS Letters Open Access pdf 10.1016/0014-5793(90)81260-u

Increase of nesting habitat suitability for green turtles in a warming Mediterranean Sea, Mancino et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-46958-4

Local climate modulates the development of soil nematode communities after glacier retreat, Guerrieri et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17057

Merging trait-based ecology and regime shift theory to anticipate community responses to warming, Weisberg et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17065

Taking advantage of opportunistically collected historical occurrence data to detect responses to climate change: The case of temperature and Iberian dung beetles, Lobo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10674

The climate crisis affects Mediterranean marine molluscs of conservation concern, Schultz et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13805

The timing of reproduction is responding plastically, not genetically, to climate change in yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer), St. Lawrence et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10780

Upland forest retreat lags behind sea-level rise in the mid-Atlantic coast, Chen & Kirwan, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17081

Urbanization effects on the spatial patterns of spring vegetation phenology depend on the climatic background, Yin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109718

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Closer Look at the Effects of Lake Area, Aquatic Vegetation, and Double-Counted Wetlands on Pan-Arctic Lake Methane Emissions Estimates, Kyzivat & Smith, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104825

A Comprehensive Assessment of Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks of Australasia's Carbon Budget, Villalobos et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007845

Carbonate chemistry and carbon sequestration driven by inorganic carbon outwelling from mangroves and saltmarshes, Reithmaier et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44037-w

Controls on timescales of soil organic carbon persistence across sub-Saharan Africa, von Fromm et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17089

Ecosystem carbon exchange across China's coastal wetlands: Spatial patterns, mechanisms, and magnitudes, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109859

Effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on carbon allocation and vegetation carbon turnover time of forest ecosystems in China, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109853

Effects of whole-soil warming on CH4 and N2O fluxes in an alpine grassland, Chen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17033

High nitrous oxide emissions from temporary flooded depressions within croplands, Elberling et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01095-8

Long-term warming increased carbon sequestration capacity in a humid subtropical forest, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17072

Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions From an Anthropogenically Transformed Lake (Lake Liche?skie, Poland), Woszczyk & Schubert, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007594

Methane emissions are predominantly responsible for record-breaking atmospheric methane growth rates in 2020 and 2021, Feng et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-4863-2023

Projecting future carbon emissions from cement production in developing countries, Cheng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43660-x

Relative contribution of photodegradation to litter breakdown in Australian grasslands, Butler et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10710

Soil Moisture Rather Than Atmospheric Dryness Dominates CO2 Uptake in an Alpine Steppe, Tao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007593

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Spatial controls of methane uptake in upland soils across climatic and geological regions in Greenland, D’Imperio et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01143-3

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration, Wilcox et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-20-2707-2023

Enhanced solar-light driven CO2 conversion using Pt-doped graphitic carbon nitride photocatalyst, Pham et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2247

Limited Mitigation Potential of Forestation Under a High Emissions Scenario: Results From Multi-Model and Single Model Ensembles, Loughran et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007605

Decarbonization

Analysis and prediction of CO2 emissions from commercial energy consumption and emission reduction potential of renewable energy in China, Zhang & Xu, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04334-2

Commercial wind turbines and residential home values: New evidence from the universe of land-based wind projects in the United States, Brunner et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113837

Deploying green hydrogen to decarbonize China’s coal chemical sector, Guo et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43540-4

Envelope design optimisation for residential net zero energy buildings within cold and semi-arid climate: A case study of Shiraz, Mehrpour et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101352

Environmental Co-Benefits of Maintaining Native Vegetation With Solar Photovoltaic Infrastructure, Choi et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003542

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction and energy savings for a dredger at port area using hybrid photovoltaic power system onboard, Wu et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101354

Limitations to sustainable renewable jet fuels production attributed to cost than energy-water-food resource availability, Chong & Ng, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44049-6

Regional capabilities and hydrogen adoption barriers, Bolz et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113934

Solutions for recycling emerging wind turbine blade waste in China are not yet effective, Yang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01104-w

Geoengineering climate

Comparison of UKESM1 and CESM2 simulations using the same multi-target stratospheric aerosol injection strategy, Henry et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023

Declining Geoengineering Efficacy Caused by Cloud Feedbacks in Transient Solar Dimming Experiments, Virgin & Fletcher, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0333.1

Aerosols

Aerosol Effects on Water Cloud Properties in Different Atmospheric Regimes, Khatri et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039729

Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest, Kuo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105389

Climate change communications & cognition

Analyzing variation in state newspaper coverage of climate change, Bromley-Trujillo et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03638-6

Climate catastrophe: The value of envisioning the worst-case scenarios of climate change, Davidson & Kemp, WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.871

Climate change concerns impact on young Australians’ psychological distress and outlook for the future, Teo et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102209

Closer economic distance makes positive carbon-related attitude: Evidence from the mechanism of sentiment tendency in worldwide news coverage of India, Sun & Wu, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113913

Effects of communicating the rise of climate migration on public perceptions of climate change and migration, Raimi et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102210

How individuals make sense of their climate impacts in the capitalocene: mixed methods insights from calculating carbon footprints, Jack et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01435-9

Increasing the uptake of plant-based diets: An analysis of the impact of a CO2 food label, Maier, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102216

Progress on climate action: a multilingual machine learning analysis of the global stocktake, Sietsma et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03649-3

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Characterization of durum wheat resistance against leaf rust under climate change conditions of increasing temperature and [CO2], Porras et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-49118-w

Do agricultural technical efficiency and technical progress drive agricultural carbon productivity? based on spatial spillovers and threshold effects, Liu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04217-6

Environmental sustainability of Finnish pork production: life cycle assessment of climate change and water scarcity impacts, Hietala et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02258-7

Exploring the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation on cereal yields in East Africa, Warsame & Daror, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05344-3

Greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions from a maize-soybean rotation under no-till as affected by intercropping with forage grass and nitrogen fertilization, Gazola et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109855

Heterogenous response of rice yield to climate factors: a Just-Pope stochastic production function and quantile regression analysis, Yu et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04761-1

Spatial and temporal variability of climate extremes and their impact on maize yield in North-Central Nigeria, Adeyemi et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04770-0

We used to ‘chase the rains’ away in the past: the role of cultural values and beliefs in shaping farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and change in North-west Ghana, Dakurah et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2287744

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

40-Year Statistics of Warm-Season Extreme Hourly Precipitation over Southwest China, Jiang et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-23-0018.1

Antecedent snowmelt and orographic precipitation contributions to water supply of Pakistan disastrous floods, 2022, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.12.002

Assessing Potential Evapotranspiration Methods in Future Drought Projections across Canada, Tam et al., Atmosphere Open Access pdf 10.1080/07055900.2023.2288632

Assessment of extreme rainfall events over the Indian subcontinent during the historical and future projection periods based on CMIP6 simulations, Suthinkumar et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8314

Examining the Water Scarcity Vulnerability in US River Basins Due To Changing Climate, Wolkeba et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106004

On the Pattern and Attribution of Pan Evaporation over China (1951–2021), Wang et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-23-0066.1

Prospective Evolution of Meteorological Drought in the Haihe River Basin and Its Connection With Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations Using CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble, Jin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038954

Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to climate change inferred using artificial intelligence shows high spatial variability, Bird et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01142-4

Snowmelt-Radiation Feedback Impact on Western U.S. Streamflow, Ban et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105118

Spatial-temporal evolutions of historical and future meteorological drought center in Beijing area, China, Huo et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101786

Climate change economics

Regional economic impacts of the Los Angeles 100% renewable energy transition, Cutler et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2287076

Spillover effects of financial development on renewable energy deployment and carbon neutrality: Does GCC institutional quality play a moderating role?, Hamed & Özataç, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03763-3

The central bank lacuna in green state transformation, Bailey & Jackson, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2023.2289336

The European Union Emission Trading System and its role for green budgeting development — the case of EU member states, Marchewka-Bartkowiak, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101390

When attention to climate change matters: The impact of climate risk disclosure on firm market value, Vestrelli et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113938

Climate change mitigation public policy research

California’s zero-emission vehicle adoption brings air quality benefits yet equity gaps persist, Yu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43309-9

Climate change transformation in built environments – A policy instrument framework, Hurlimann et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101771

Comparative techno-economic assessment of electric vehicle charging preferences: A quantitative study for sustainable EV policy in Pakistan, Mouhy-Ud-Din et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101355

Dependency ratio and emission trading scheme: a case study in China, Chen, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03651-9

Energy transition policy via electric vehicles adoption in the developing world: Tunisia as a case study, Khammassi et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113927

Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility, Hoehne et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-42483-0

Immediate and future challenges of using electric vehicles for promoting energy efficiency in Africa’s clean energy transition, Sadiq Okoh & Chidi Onuoha, Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102789

Nationally determined contributions to the 2015 Paris Agreement goals: transparency in communications from developing country Parties, Mulatu et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2285519

Predictive modeling of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in Ghana towards a net-zero future, Sokama?Neuyam et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2251

Public willingness to pay for mitigating local conflicts over the construction of renewable energy facilities: A contingent valuation study in South Korea, Choi et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113930

The effectiveness of climate change regulations in the commercial real estate market, Akhtyrska & Fuerst, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113916

The legal governance of the carbon market: challenges and application of private law in China, Chen et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2288591

Understanding changes in household carbon footprint during rapid urbanization in China, Liang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113928

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Disaster mapping and assessment of Pakistan’s 2022 mega-flood based on multi-source data-driven approach, Wang et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-023-06337-8

Drought and Human Mobility in Africa, Ceola et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003510

Sensitivity analysis for a participatory approach to enhance the climate resilience of Venice, Italy, Sambo et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.14258

Toward equitable grid resilience: operationalizing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate flooding impacts, Miraee-Ashtiani et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad111e

Climate change impacts on human health

Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam, Gibb et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43954-0

Research on summer outdoor thermal comfort based on COMFA model in an urban park of Fuzhou, China, Lin et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04782-w

Climate change & geopolitics

Global energy scenarios: A geopolitical reality check, Blondeel et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102781

Other

Recent Multi-Decadal Southern Ocean Surface Cooling Unlikely Caused by Southern Annular Mode Trends, Dong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106142

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Al Gore’s climate watchdog spots emission gaps, Voosen, Science 10.1126/science.adn3524

Climate justice and territory, Mancilla & Baard Noschang Peroni , WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.870

Coral reefs in peril in a record-breaking year, Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science 10.1126/science.adk4532

New hope for methane reduction, Nisbet, Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adn0134

Novel carbon dioxide removals techniques must be integrated into the European Union’s climate policies, Fridahl et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01121-9

Opt for emissions intensity metrics, Purohit, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01138-0

Solar Activity, Weather, and Climate: The Elusive Connection, Tinsley, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0065.1

The distortionary effects of unconstrained for-profit carbon dioxide removal and the need for early governance intervention, Grubert & Talati, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2292111

Too hot to handle? An urgent need to understand climate change impacts on the biogeochemistry of tropical coastal waters, Carreira et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17074

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

City of Des Moines Climate Action & Adaptation Plan, City of Des Moines

Through the plan, Des Moines will be able to address climate change. With an unprecedented challenge comes the extraordinary opportunity to leverage the creativity of Des Moines’ residents and businesses. Des Moines' future needs to be sustainable, resilient, and equitable. The plan is a visionary, action-oriented, and community-driven effort to do just that. The plan is designed to guide decision-making, policy, and programs that reduce harmful pollution that causes climate change while increasing resilience and enhancing the adaptive capacity of the community.

Global Tipping Points, Lenton et al., University of Exeter

Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage Earth’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of human societies. Currently, there is no adequate global governance at the scale of the threats posed by negative tipping points. The world is on a disastrous trajectory. Crossing one harmful tipping point could trigger others, causing a domino effect of accelerating and unmanageable change to life-support systems. Preventing this – and doing so equitably – should become the core goal and logic of a new global governance framework. Prevention is only possible if societies and economic systems are transformed to rapidly reduce emissions and restore nature.

Warp Speed Clean Energy, Charles Harper and Daniela Schulman,, Evergreen Collaborative

Rapidly replacing fossil fuels with clean electricity is necessary to avert the worst consequences of the climate crisis, reduce pollution, and create thousands of well-paying jobs. But to achieve these benefits, we need to build new transmission and renewable energy at a scale and speed our country has scarcely seen before. To meet clean energy goals and avoid the worst climate consequences, federal leaders must take executive action now to address multiple sources of delay in clean energy and transmission buildout. State leaders, too, must pass laws that speed up siting and permitting processes for transmission and clean energy while strengthening community engagement and benefits. At every level, equitable policies that include underserved, overburdened groups in early-stage planning and ensure that clear benefits flow to host communities will ultimately increase support for projects, speed up approval, and deliver better project outcomes. The U.S. urgently needs more efficient and effective permitting, siting, and planning processes for clean energy and transmission—without waiting on Congress or paving the way for fossil fuel projects.

Impacts of IRA’s 45V Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit, Electric Power Research Institute and GTI Energy

Hydrogen and low-carbon fuels could play important roles in reaching economy-wide net-zero emissions, especially for applications in industry, transport, and energy storage. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) contains novel production tax credits for clean hydrogen (45V), which can have complex impacts on hydrogen production, electric generation, and emissions. The authors used a model to quantify potential impacts of the 45V subsidy under scenarios that vary qualification criteria and the scope of the demand response for hydrogen. The authors found that 45V credits could lead to significant deployment of electrolytic hydrogen across all scenarios, whereas net emissions effects depend on the qualification criteria. Projected fiscal costs imply higher outlay per tonne of CO2 reduced than for other IRA provisions.

Compounding natural hazards and high vulnerability led to severe impacts from Horn of Africa flooding exacerbated by climate change and Indian Ocean Dipole, Kimutai et al., World Weather Attribution

Compounding natural hazards and high vulnerability led to severe impacts from Horn of Africa flooding exacerbated by climate change and Indian Ocean Dipole. After years of drought the short rainy season from October-November-December (OND) in the Horn of Africa brought exceptionally heavy rains, particularly in November 2023, leading to severe flooding in the south of Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and many regions in southern and central Somalia. Weather stations reported between 200 and 500 mm more rain than usual this year, more than a month before the end of the rainy season. Researchers from Kenya, Ethiopia, South Africa, the United States of America, the Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the heavy rainfall. Across the region several individual heavy rainfall events of varying length led to flash flooding as well as several rivers bursting their banks. To capture this range of flood-inducing rainfall processes, The authors analyzed different lengths of cumulative rainfall. However the results are very similar independent of whether investigating a few days or a whole month. Thus we choose maximum 30-day mean rainfall over OND as the event definition. The authors estimate that human-induced climate change increased the intensity of OND rainfall by up to a factor of two.

Hydrogen Shot Technology Assessment: Thermal Conversion Approache, McNaul et al., National Energy Technology Laboratory

The Hydrogen Shot seeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen production to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). Today, the thermal conversion of fossil fuels, primarily steam methane reforming (SMR), represents the predominant, lowest-cost method of hydrogen production. However, this production method, and others like it, emits around 10 kg of CO2 equivalents per kg of H2 produced across its life cycle. Carbon capture has been demonstrated on reforming pathways and the combination of the two is commercially ready. But to meet the Hydrogen Shot goal, most thermal conversion pathways with a thorough carbon management strategy will need to achieve costs lower than what has been currently modeled. Based on screening-level analyses conducted by the authors, they show that technology advancements may reduce modeled costs from $1.64/kg H2 to $1.40/kg H2 for SMR with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and from $1.60/kg H2 to $1.33/kg H2 for autothermal reforming with CCS in 2020 dollars. These cost reductions may be achieved through process intensification and the integration of lower technology readiness level CO2 capture techniques. In addition, the authors show that hydrogen project developers must also consider factors such as plant scale, market scenarios, plant site location, optimization of CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, by-product sales, CO2 valuation, and integration with other energy systems to achieve the Hydrogen Shot goal.

Large majority of US adults and half of Republicans agree with Biden’s goal to slash climate pollution, SSRS, CNN

Nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults say they are worried about the threat of climate change in their communities, according to the poll. More than half are worried about the impact of extreme weather, as the climate crisis touches every region in the form of extreme heat, devastating storms and drought. Even more want the federal government to do something about it. A broad majority of U.S. adults – 73% – say the federal government should develop its climate policies with the goal of cutting the country’s planet-warming pollution in half by the end of the decade.

Gray is the New Green: The Growing Strength of Older Climate Voters, Environmental Voter Project

The authors present their research on older climate voters in 18 states where they used predictive models to identify voters who are likely to rank “climate change” or “clean air, clean water, and the environment” as their top political priority. Unlike polls, which attempt to measure the attitudes of an entire population, predictive models identify specific individuals who have a high likelihood of prioritizing an issue — in this case, climate change or environmental issues. These individuals can then be targeted for mobilization campaigns, and the aggregate voter data often reveals the relative size of certain voting blocs as well as some of their unique characteristics. the authors identified such a large number of climate voters aged 65 and older that these older voters now make up the second largest age cohort of climate voters after 18–34 year olds in each of the 18 states studied. Some of the findings include that 1 in 6 voters aged 65 and older view climate as a top priority. Across the 18 states studied, 16.4% of registered voters aged 65 and older were likely to consider either “climate change” or “clean air, clean water, and the environment” as their top issue priority. Older female climate voters outnumber older male climate voters 59.3% to 40.4% with 0.4% unknown. This significant 19-point gender gap is much larger than the 10-point gender gap which exists among all registered voters aged 65 and older.

An Equitable Phaseout of Fossil Fuel Extraction: Towards a reference framework for a fair and rapid global phaseout, Civil Society Equity Review Coalition, Civil Society Equity Review

The authors proposes a reference framework designed to guide a rapid phaseout of fossil fuel extraction. National actions are required that would be consistent with both scientific analysis of the 1.5 °C limit and fundamental fairness principles. Fossil fuel extraction must be stopped urgently where it violates human rights, especially the rights of indigenous peoples. To have a decent chance of holding to the 1.5 °C limit, fossil fuel extraction must begin to decline immediately, phase down rapidly in the coming decades, and cease worldwide by 2050. There is no room for new oil and gas fields or coal mines to be opened anywhere in the world. All investment in the further build-out of fossil-fuel infrastructure must stop immediately.

Addressing Climate Change in Detroit, Office of Sustainability, City of Detroit

The City of Detroit’s climate strategy is a framework for residents, businesses, city departments, and industry to achieve the City’s emission goals and increase resilience as climate change impacts everyone's daily lives. The strategy is focused on action strategies tor reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change. Priority action strategies include transitioning to clean energy, increasing sustainable mobility, accelerating energy efficiency and reducing waste, prioritizing vulnerable residents and adapting to change, reducing flood risks, protecting people from extreme heat, and improving air quality.

Artificial Intelligence for Climate Security: Possibilities and Challenges, Kyungmee Kim and Vincent Boulanin, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI)—largely based on machine learning—offer possibilities for addressing climate-related security risks. AI can, for example, be used for developing disaster early-warning systems and enhancing long-term climate hazard modelling, reducing the risk that the impacts of climate change will lead to insecurity and conflict. The authors outline the opportunities that AI presents for managing climate-related security risks. They provide examples of the use of AI in the field and delve into the challenges—notably methodological and ethical—associated with the use of AI for climate security.

California's Progress in Advancing Transmission Planning and Permitting, Gridlab and the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies

The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has made important improvements in its forward planning for transmission expansion by adopting a zonal focus. Clean energy technologies need to be integrated into the grid at a rate of 7,000 to 8,000 megawatts a year for the next 20 years. Transmission development in California has not kept pace with reliability and clean energy needs over the past decade. The CAISO has made progress in identifying solutions to enhance the study process for interconnection requests. A number of key issues still need to be resolved before February, 2024. Using grid enhancing technologies, reconductoring transmission lines with advanced conductors and sectionalizing power lines have the potential to cost-effectively increase energy delivery on existing transmission and expand transmission capacity on existing rights of way. California’s transmission permitting process is not up to the challenge of efficiently reviewing the magnitude of transmission projects in the pipeline.

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Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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