Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2024

Posted on 23 May 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

How much storage do we need in a fully electrified future? A critical review of the assumptions on which this question depends, Marsden et al., Energy Research & Social Science:

Our analysis advances the argument that current approaches reproduce interpretations of normality that are, ironically, rooted in an era of fossil fuels. This has the perverse effect of reproducing present standards and modes of living and perpetuating ultimately unsustainable routines and expectations. We argue that the way out of this impasse is to invite more open discussion about the social worlds implicit in contemporary scenarios and forecasts. Rather than thinking about the types of storage needed to preserve the status quo, the challenge is to imagine the temporal, spatial and organisational qualities of energy systems, including systems of storage, that might be compatible with much lower carbon ways of life, and with very different patterns and levels of demand.

“These industries have polluted consciences; we are unable to envision change“: Sense of place and lock-in mechanisms in Sulcis coal and carbon-intensive region, Italy, Biddau et al., Global Environmental Change

The study focuses on Sulcis CCIR (Sardinia, Italy), where extractive and metal industries are deeply ingrained in the region's culture and economy. To reconstruct the trajectory of the CCIR and gain in depth understanding of feedback mechanisms of path dependency across time, we triangulate different data sources including policy documents, newspapers, participatory workshops, and interviews with key stakeholders. The findings reveal the profound influence of a sense of place grounded in a shared industrial myth along with associated place meanings, identities, and memories on lock-in mechanisms. Positive feedback loops between sense of place and structural factors of lock-in have legitimated the dominance of coal and carbon-intensive industries across time, impeding the recognition of the need for change and obscuring windows of opportunity for low-carbon transformation.  

When enough is enough: Introducing sufficiency corridors to put techno-economism in its place, Bärnthaler, Ambio

Recognising the limitations of techno-economism, focused on markets (price adjustments) and technology (efficiency gains), this contribution introduces sufficiency corridors as a concept, research field, and policy approach. Sufficiency corridors represent the space between a floor of meeting needs and a ceiling of ungeneralisable excess, i.e. within the sufficiency corridor everyone has enough (to satisfy needs) while no one has too much (to endanger planetary boundaries and need satisfaction). Establishing such corridors entails a process over time that continuously narrows the gap between floors and ceilings, lifting the former and pushing down the latter by strengthening forms of consumption and production that contribute to need satisfaction while shrinking those that do not. 

One Day When We Were Young: Nostalgia Brings Climate Change Temporally Closer, Huang et al., Environmental Communication

The perceived temporal distance of climate change impacts has been considered a long-standing barrier to climate engagement. Because nostalgia has distinct cognitive properties related to temporal thinking, three experimental studies are conducted to investigate nostalgia's potential for shortening temporal distance. Study 1 shows that nostalgia increases climate engagement by reducing temporal distance. Study 2 further identifies vivid imagery as a mechanism for the nostalgia effects across US and Chinese samples. Study 3 shows that nostalgic public service announcements increase climate engagement more than non-nostalgic ones. This study provides strong evidence that evoking nostalgia can be a useful climate change communication strategy.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Fuelling Denial: The climate change reactionary movement and Swedish far-right media, Kjell Vowles, Chalmers University:

The fossil fuel industry has a long history of spreading disinformation about climate change science and obstructing mitigating policies. During the 2010s and 2020s, these vested interests have found a political ally in parts of the European far-right. This study explores how this has taken shape in Sweden, a country where there has been a political consensus about the seriousness of climate change. The ascendance of the far-right, however, has led to this consensus breaking down.

Hitting the brakes: how the energy transition could decelerate in the US, David Brown, Wood MacKenzie:

A victory for former President Donald Trump in the election in November would mean new policy priorities and an immediate deceleration in support of decarbonization. Incentives for electric vehicle (EV) sales would likely be cut, while the growth of green hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) could falter. At the same time, unabated fossil generation would expand. The economic nationalism that has defined both the Trump and Biden administrations would continue. Companies could be less likely to invest in emerging technologies. These steps would push the US even further away from a net zero emissions pathway. The author explores the impact of government policy, consumer choices and the competitiveness of emerging technologies on the future of U.S. energy investment. In the delayed transition scenario, the author projects about US$6.5 trillion in investment for the U.S. energy sector over 2023-50, about 55% lower than in our net-zero scenario.

143 articles in 67 journals by 886 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A likely role for stratification in long-term changes of the global ocean tides, Opel et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01432-5

Atmospheric destabilization leads to Arctic Ocean winter surface wind intensification, Zapponini & Goessling, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01428-1

Observations of climate change, effects

Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams, O’Donnell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01446-z

Quantifying Contributions of External Forcing and Internal Variability to Arctic Warming During 1900–2021, Chen & Dai, Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003734

Steady threefold Arctic amplification of externally forced warming masked by natural variability, Zhou et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01441-1

Trends in temperature and precipitation at high and low elevations in the main mountain ranges of the Iberian Peninsula (1894–2020): The Sierra Nevada and the Pyrenees, Sigro et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8487

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Consistent Ground Surface Temperature Climatology Over China: 1956–2022, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd040916

GloUTCI-M: A Global Monthly 1 km Universal Thermal Climate Index Dataset from 2000 to 2022, Yang et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-2407-2024

Observations and modeling of areal surface albedo and surface types in the Arctic, Jäkel et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1337

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Comparison of Proxy-Shortwave Cloud Albedo from SBUV Observations with CMIP6 Models, Weaver et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0170.1

Investigating the impact of tropical deforestation on Indian monsoon hydro-climate: a novel study using a regional climate model, Lodh & Haldar, Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06615-z

Resolution Dependence of Extreme Wind Speed Projections in the Great Lakes Region, Morris et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0547.1

Rising risks of hydroclimatic swings: A large ensemble study of dry and wet spell transitions in North America, Na & Najafi, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104476

Substantial Warming of the Atlantic Ocean in CMIP6 Models, Ren et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0418.1

Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia (WACE) Trend: Inference from Large Ensemble Model Simulations, Jun et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0491.1

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world, Gu et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Evaluation and attribution of shortwave feedbacks to ENSO in CMIP6 models, Huang et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07190-6

Why Do CO2 Quadrupling Simulations Warm More Than Twice as Much as CO2 Doubling Simulations in CMIP6?, Poletti et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107320

Cryosphere & climate change

CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023, Diamond et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109265

Estimating the uncertainty of sea-ice area and sea-ice extent from satellite retrievals, Wernecke et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2022-1189

Heterogeneous impacts of ocean thermal forcing on ice discharge from Greenland's peripheral tidewater glaciers over 2000–2021, Möller et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-61930-6

Sea level & climate change

Establishing flood thresholds for sea level rise impact communication, Mahmoudi et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48545-1

Estimation of return levels with long return periods for extreme sea levels in a time-varying framework, Rydén, Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-024-09974-x

Shoreline retreat and beach nourishment are projected to increase in Southern California, Amrouni et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01388-6

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

The role of atmospheric CO2 in controlling sea surface temperature change during the Pliocene, Burton et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-1177-2024

The Temperature of the Deep Ocean Is a Robust Proxy for Global Mean Surface Temperature During the Cenozoic, Evans et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023pa004788

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A potential role of heat-moisture couplings in the range expansion of Striga asiatica, Bürger & Chory, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11332

Acclimation capacity to global warming of amphibians and freshwater fishes: Drivers, patterns, and data limitations, Ruthsatz et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.12.22.573141

Assessing the response of marine fish communities to climate change and fishing, Huang et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14291

Contrasting carbon cycle responses to dry (2015 El Niño) and wet (2008 La Niña) extreme events at an Amazon tropical forest, Restrepo-Coupe et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110037

Deforestation limits evolutionary rescue under climate change in Amazonian lizards, Azevedo et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13860

Distinct responses to warming within picoplankton communities across an environmental gradient, Stevens et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17316

Distribution pattern of large old Ginkgo biloba in China under climate change scenarios, Xie et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.11367

Exposure of wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to sea-level rise in the Mediterranean, Verniest et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.14288

Feedbacks between phytoplankton and nutrient cycles in a warming ocean, Hutchins & Tagliabue, Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01454-w

Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia, Srinivasulu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11420

Global plant responses to intensified fire regimes, Grau?Andrés et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.13858

Heatwave responses of Arctic phytoplankton communities are driven by combined impacts of warming and cooling, Wolf et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adl5904

Higher atmospheric aridity-dominated drought stress contributes to aggravating dryland productivity loss under global warming, Yu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100692

Impact of persistently high sea surface temperatures on the rhizobiomes of Zostera marina in a Baltic Sea benthocosms, Aires et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17337

Influence of spatiotemporal and meteorological variation on Norwegian atmospheric pollen seasonality, Frisk et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110059

Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land-use change, Mitchell et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11391

Planning for the future: Grasslands, herbivores, and nature-based solutions, Borer & Risch Anita C. Risch, Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14323

Quantifying spatial dynamics of urban sprawl for climate resilience sustainable natural resource management by utilizing geostatistical and remote sensing techniques, Fariha et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05000-x

Role of the sea surface biofilm in regulating the Earth’s climate, Kumari et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1390660

Small but connected islands can maintain populations and genetic diversity under climate change, Smith & Pauli Jonathan N. Pauli Jonathan N. Pauli, Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.07119

The choice of land-based climate change mitigation measures influences future global biodiversity loss, Hirata et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01433-4

Timing-specific parental effects of ocean warming in a coral reef fish, Bonzi et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1098/rspb.2023.2207

Why do avian responses to change in Arctic green-up vary?, Tavera et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17335

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Abiotic processes control carbon dioxide dynamics in temperate karst lakes, Vargas-Sánchez et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.17393

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage, Weiskopf et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-47872-7

Biomass recovery of coastal young mangrove plantations in Central Thailand, Ohtsuka et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-61979-3

Carbon export from seaweed forests to deep ocean sinks, Filbee-Dexter et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01449-7

Carbon Stocks and Fluxes From a Boreal Conifer Swamp: Filling a Knowledge Gap for Understanding the Boreal C Cycle, Davidson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jg008005

Controls and relationships of soil organic carbon abundance and persistence vary across pedo-climatic regions, von Fromm et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17320

Disaggregating the Carbon Exchange of Degrading Permafrost Peatlands Using Bayesian Deep Learning, Pirk et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl109283

Extratropical storms induce carbon outgassing over the Southern Ocean, Carranza et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-024-00657-7

Factors controlling spatiotemporal variability of soil carbon accumulation and stock estimates in a tidal salt marsh, Fettrow et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-2367-2024

Forest carbon uptake as influenced by snowpack and length of photosynthesis season in seasonally snow-covered forests of North America, Yang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110054

Global Ocean pCO2 Variation Regimes: Spatial Patterns and the Emergence of a Hybrid Regime, Guo & Timmermans, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020679

Restoring understory and riparian areas in oil palm plantations does not increase greenhouse gas fluxes, Drewer et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1324475

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Spatiotemporal dynamic evolution and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions: evidence from Jiangsu Province, China, Cai & Li, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1368205

The Role of Ocean Mesoscale Variability in Air-Sea CO2 Exchange: A Global Perspective, Guo & Timmermans, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108373

Well-to-wheels analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for passenger vehicles in Middle East and North Africa, Ankathi et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13500

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Carbon storage through China’s planted forest expansion, Cheng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48546-0

Cross-border CO2 transport decreases public acceptance of carbon capture and storage, Anders et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02023-0

Estimation of potential carbon sequestration in Thai reforestation from mining, based on the integrated spatial analysis, Somprasong, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2347883

Expert insights into future trajectories: assessing cost reductions and scalability of carbon dioxide removal technologies, Abegg et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1331901

Large-scale spatially explicit analysis of carbon capture at cellulosic biorefineries, O’Neill et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-024-01532-8

Scaling carbon removal systems: deploying direct air capture amidst Canada’s low-carbon transition, Cortinovis et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1338647

Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Peredo-Mancilla et al., Char and Carbon Materials Derived from Biomass Open Access pdf 10.1016/b978-0-12-814893-8.00009-2

Decarbonization

An integrated perspective on the decarbonization of shipping, , Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02010-5

Bandgap-universal passivation enables stable perovskite solar cells with low photovoltage loss, Lin et al., Science 10.1126/science.ado2302

Energy transition needs new materials, Mirkin et al., Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adq3799

On the potential of vehicle-to-grid and second-life batteries to provide energy and material security, Aguilar Lopez et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48554-0

Solar masculinities from the south: Patriarchal and ethnoreligious authoritarianism through solar infrastructures in Turkey and India, Sorman & Stock, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103583

Techno-economic analysis with financial risk identification for solar power plant as post-mining land use in Indonesia, Ronyastra et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101462

Geoengineering climate

Public engagement for inclusive and sustainable governance of climate interventions, Fritz et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48510-y

Climate change communications & cognition

Communicating climate futures: a multi-country study of how the media portray the IPCC scenarios in the 2021/2 Working Group reports, Painter et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03744-z

Eco-anxiety and Climate-anxiety linked to indirect exposure: A scoping review of empirical research., JARRETT et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102326

Exploring Transition Tensions in Public Opinion on the COP26 Coal Phase-out Deal for South Africa as Expressed on Facebook, Okoliko & de Wit, Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2353081

Geeks versus climate change: understanding American video gamers’ engagement with global warming, Carman et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03747-w

One Day When We Were Young: Nostalgia Brings Climate Change Temporally Closer, Huang et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2353085

Validation of the Hogg Climate Anxiety Scale, Hogg et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03726-1

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A development of strategies to be used to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality in the agricultural sector, Ghimire et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04996-6

Effects of alternate wetting and drying irrigation on yield, water-saving, and emission reduction in rice fields: A global meta-analysis, Gao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110075

Examining climate trends and patterns and their implications for agricultural productivity in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania, Mugabe et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1346677

Harmonizing tradition and climate resilience: traditional food practices for food security in the Himalayas, Das, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05038-x

How to quantify the regional effects of ocean temperature rise due to climate change: implications of Octopus maya ecophysiology on food security of the Yucatan shelf artisanal fishermen, Escamilla-Aké et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02236-1

Just transformations in climate information services provision: perspectives of farmers in southern Ghana, Sarku et al., Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2024.2353101

Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N₂O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937

Multi-decadal climate services help farmers assess and manage future risks, Malakar et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-02021-2

Responses of spring wheat yield and growth period to different future climate change models in the yellow river irrigation area based on CMIP6 and WOFOST models, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110071

Sustainable agriculture in the EU and China: A comparative critical policy analysis approach, Zhang & Drury, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103789

Sustainable coffee: A review of the diverse initiatives and governance dimensions of global coffee supply chains, Wright et al., Ambio Open Access 10.1007/s13280-024-02003-w

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Anthropogenic and atmospheric variability intensifies flash drought episodes in South Asia, Ullah et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01390-y

Characteristics and changes of glacial lakes and outburst floods, Zhang et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00554-w

Climatology of severe hail potential in Europe based on a convection-permitting simulation, Kahraman et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07227-w

Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?, Poncet et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/nhess-2023-82

Estimating the riverine environmental water demand under climate change with data mining models, Zanjani et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06656-4

Modelling the potential of land use change to mitigate the impacts of climate change on future drought in the Western Cape, South Africa, Naik & Abiodun, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-024-04995-7

Regional characteristics of extreme precipitation events over Aotearoa New Zealand, Vishwanathan et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100687

The observed evolution of sub-daily to multi-day heavy precipitation in Switzerland, Bauer & Scherrer Scherrer, Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access pdf 10.1002/asl.1240

Climate change economics

Could the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism promote climate mitigation? An economy-wide analysis, Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.05.002

Equity and Justice in Loss and Damage Finance: A Narrative Review of Catalysts and Obstacles, Uri et al., Current Climate Change Reports Open Access pdf 10.1007/s40641-024-00196-6

Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems, Aramendia et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-024-01518-6

Measuring global monetary damages from particulate matter and carbon dioxide emissions to track sustainable growth, Mohan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01426-3

Climate change and the circular economy

Economic and carbon emission assessment of compostable plastics as a substitute for petrochemical plastics: a case study in Yunnan Province, Chen et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05000-x

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Applying transition management to electricity access planning in Kenya, Muchunku, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101463

Are West Africa's policy, planning, and regulatory frameworks missing the harmonization piece of the power pooling-renewable energy puzzle?, Bissiri et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114161

Beneath the insuperable barrier: accumulation, state managers and climate policy in Britain, Da Costa Vieira, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2024.2351787

Challenges in increasing Women's participation in the energy transition in ASEAN and G7 countries: A qualitative approach based on the three tenets of justice, Sumarno et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114163

Efficient energy use, unpaid work, and changes in everyday practices to accelerate green energy transitions – Equitable transformations in play?, Suonio & Lund, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103582

Feeding bees according to desired honey type: tailoring support for European Energy Communities to their function to escape the energy trilemma, Lowitzsch et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103579

Governance perspectives on achieving demand side flexibility for net zero, Torriti, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114148

Impact of carbon allowance allocation mechanism and power dispatch on renewable energy investment, Zhang & Li, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04982-y

International shipping in a world below 2 °C, Müller-Casseres et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01997-1

Leveraging information technology for accelerating residential rooftop solar: A case study from Odisha, India, Purohit et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-024-10141-5

Overlaps of indigenous knowledge and climate change mitigation: evidence from a systematic review, Chanza et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1344931

Policies for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions generated by the road transportation sector in Taiwan, Chang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114171

Public perceptions on net zero energy houses in Japan, Yamaura et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-024-01501-w

Real-time emulation of future global warming reveals realistic impacts on the phenological response and quality deterioration in rice, Itoh et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2316497121

Simulating climate policies influences how laypersons evaluate the effectiveness of climate protection measures, Landmann et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-024-05028-z

Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing, Döbbeling-Hildebrandt et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48512-w

The Climate Establishment and the Paris partnerships, Green, Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-024-03730-5

The greenhouse gas reduction effect of critical peak pricing for industrial electricity: Evidence from 285 Chinese cities, 2003–2019, Wang et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114147

The Role of Political Orientation and Value Framing in Carbon Pricing Acceptance: Evidence from a Representative Sample, Bolte et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102330

Toward global net zero: The voluntary carbon market on its quest to find its place in the post-Paris climate regime, Kreibich, WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.892

Tripartite evolutionary game analysis of carbon emission reduction behavior strategies under government regulation, Wei et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-04972-0

Under one roof: The social relations and relational work of energy retrofit for the occupants of multi-owned properties, Cairns et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114166

Unlocking the potential of peatlands and paludiculture to achieve Germany’s climate targets: obstacles and major fields of action, Wichmann & Nordt, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1380625

What determines local attitudes towards Jordan’s renewable energy transition? Evidence from household surveys, Weko & Schuch, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2353146

When enough is enough: Introducing sufficiency corridors to put techno-economism in its place, Bärnthaler, Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-024-02027-2

“These industries have polluted consciences; we are unable to envision change“: Sense of place and lock-in mechanisms in Sulcis coal and carbon-intensive region, Italy, Biddau et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102850

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Beyond carbon: Unveiling vulnerabilities of the transportation fuel system for climate resilience, Lindbergh et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103585

Establishing flood thresholds for sea level rise impact communication, Mahmoudi et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48545-1

Climate change impacts on human health

Severe drought exposure in utero associates to children’s epigenetic age acceleration in a global climate change hot spot, Qiao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48426-7

Climate change & geopolitics

Conflict mitigation as a means of climate change adaptation: Lessons for policy and development practice, Abrahams & Ober , Environment and Security Open Access 10.1177/27538796241246409

Other

HOTSSea v1: a NEMO-based physical Hindcast of the Salish Sea (1980–2018) supporting ecosystem model development, Oldford et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-58

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Building capacities for transformative climate action: lessons from five fields of practice, Nautiyal, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03738-x

Energy transition needs new materials, Mirkin et al., Science Open Access pdf 10.1126/science.adq3799

How much storage do we need in a fully electrified future? A critical review of the assumptions on which this question depends, Marsden et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103580

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action, van Daalen et al., The Lancet Public Health 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00055-0

The ambiguity in IPCC’s risk diagram raises explanatory challenges, Fuchs et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06643-9

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across large parts of Asia more frequent and extreme, Zachariah et al., World Weahter Attribution

The authors collaborated to assess to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the extreme heat in three Asian regions: 1) West Asia, including Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine and Jordan; 2) the Philippines in East Asia; and 3) South and Southeast Asia, including India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Using published peer-reviewed methods, the scientists analyzed how human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the 3-day April heatwave in West Asia and a 15-day April heatwave in the Philippines. For this region, the analysis focused on observed weather data, but not climate models, as the affected region largely overlaps with the study areas of previous studies. The observational data for the whole month of April confirmed that the role of climate change is likely of similar magnitude to the heatwaves studied in 2022 and 2023, and the results of a full attribution analysis would not be significantly different.

State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2023, Marengo et al., World Meteorological Organization

The authors provide the status of key climate indicators and latest data and information on impacts, risks and policy from United Nations agencies. It addresses specific physical science, socio-economic and policy aspects that are relevant to Latin America and the Caribbean and responds to Members needs in the fields of climate monitoring, climate change and climate services.

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Myanmar, Kim et al., The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs

The authors focus on Myanmar and the series of conflict- and climate-related issues that face the country. The authors offer a range of recommended actions for the international community to address these issues effectively. Myanmar is home to one of the highest concentrations of people vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with 40 per cent of the population residing in low-lying and coastal regions. Following a military takeover in 2021, the establishment of the State Administration Council (SAC) was met with broad popular resistance, retriggering confrontations with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and local anti-junta militias. Conflict has exacerbated the country’s vulnerability to climate change and environmental degradation.

One Year In: Tracking the Impacts of NEM 3.0 on California’s Residential Solar Market, Galen Barbose, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

On December 15, 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission passed an overhaul of the net metering program for the state’s investor-owned utilities. The changes replaced the long-standing net energy metering (NEM) tariffs with a net billing tariff (NBT) structure—colloquially known as “NEM 3.0”—which significantly reduces the compensation for behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The NEM tariffs remained open for new interconnection applications until April 15, 2023, but after that date, all new interconnection applications were submitted under NBT. Now, one year later, we have an opportunity to evaluate how the California solar market has evolved under this new compensation regime. As a precursor to its annual Tracking the Sun report, Berkeley Lab has released a short technical brief describing key trends in the California residential solar market since the roll-out of the new NBT structure. The purpose of this analysis is to provide empirical insights into how the market has evolved over the past year, confirming some expectations while also revealing several striking surprises.

Banking on Climate Chaos 2024, Rainforest Action Network

The 60 biggest banks globally committed $705 B USD to companies conducting business in fossil fuels in 2023, bringing the total since the Paris agreement to $6.9 T. In 2023, JPMorgan Chase ranks #1 as the worst financier of fossil fuels. The bank increased its' financing from $38.7 billion in 2022 to $40.8 billion in 2023.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature, Adrien Bilal Diego Känzig, National Bureau of Economic Research

The authors estimate that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are six times larger than previously thought. They exploit natural variability in global temperature and rely on time-series variation. A 1°C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world GDP. Global temperature shocks correlate much more strongly with extreme climatic events than the country-level temperature shocks commonly used in the panel literature, explaining why estimates are substantially larger. the authors use reduced-form evidence to estimate structural damage functions in a standard neoclassical growth model. The results imply a Social Cost of Carbon of $1,056 per ton of carbon dioxide. A business-as-usual warming scenario leads to a present value welfare loss of 31%. Both are multiple orders of magnitude above previous estimates and imply that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States.

Automakers and Climate Policy Advocacy: A Global Analysis, InfluenceMap

The world’s largest automakers’ advocacy strategies are putting global climate targets at risk and threatening the electric vehicle transition. Negative lobbying by automakers is a key barrier to climate policy and higher electric vehicle uptake. Industry production electric vehicle forecasts fail to meet the International Energy Agency's updated 1.5°C scenario for most automakers. Japanese automakers are the least prepared for the electric vehicle transition and have the most active, strategic engagement against it.

2024 Summer Reliability Assessment, North American Electric Reliability Corporation

The assessment identifies, assesses, and reports on areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American bulk power system (BPS) for the upcoming summer season. In addition, the assessment presents peak electricity demand and supply changes and highlights any unique regional challenges or expected conditions that might affect the reliability of the BPS.

Expanding the Industrial Decarbonization Toolkit, King et al., Rhodium Group

The industrial sector is on a path to becoming the highest-emitting sector in the US economy in the early 2030s, pointing to the critical need to rapidly deploy decarbonization solutions if the U.S. is to achieve meaningful economy-wide decarbonization. The Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act make substantial investments in such solutions, including carbon capture and clean hydrogen, but there is still a long way to go to deep decarbonization of the industrial sector. The authors estimate the deployment and emissions impact of decarbonization solutions at existing industrial facilities under current policy, to begin to unpack what a longer-term decarbonization strategy can look like in industry. They found that deployment of carbon capture retrofits and new electrolyzer installations driven by current policy could reduce emissions by 81-132 million metric tons in 2040, resulting in 5-10% lower total industrial sector emissions, with notable uptake of both solutions in key subsectors. Though this abatement marks an important start to bending the emissions curve downward, more ambition on a faster pace is required on the technology and policy fronts to drive substantial emission reductions.

Climate Change in the Indian Mind, 2023, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC) and the Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research

54% of people in India say they know either “just a little” about global warming or have never heard of it, while only 10% say they know “a lot.” However, when given a short definition of global warming and how it affects weather patterns, 78% of people in India say they think global warming is happening. 52% think global warming is caused mostly by human activities, while 38% think it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment. Majorities think global warming affects weather in their local area (71%) and monsoons in India (76%) either “a lot” or “some.”

Hitting the brakes: how the energy transition could decelerate in the US, David Brown, Wood MacKenzie

A victory for former President Donald Trump in the election in November would mean new policy priorities and an immediate deceleration in support of decarbonization. Incentives for electric vehicle (EV) sales would likely be cut, while the growth of green hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) could falter. At the same time, unabated fossil generation would expand. The economic nationalism that has defined both the Trump and Biden administrations would continue. Companies could be less likely to invest in emerging technologies. These steps would push the US even further away from a net zero emissions pathway. THe author explores the impact of government policy, consumer choices and the competitiveness of emerging technologies on the future of U.S. energy investment. In the delayed transition scenario, the author projects about US$6.5 trillion in investment for the U.S. energy sector over 2023-50, about 55% lower than in our net-zero scenario.

Fuelling Denial: The climate change reactionary movement and Swedish far-right media, Kjell Vowles, Chalmers University

The fossil fuel industry has a long history of spreading disinformation about climate change science and obstructing mitigating policies. During the 2010s and 2020s, these vested interests have found a political ally in parts of the European far-right. This study explores how this has taken shape in Sweden, a country where there has been a political consensus about the seriousness of climate change. The ascendance of the far-right, however, has led to this consensus breaking down.

Before the Deluge: How to mitigate the risk of flooding in Afghanistan, Mohammad Assem Mayar, Afghanistan Analysts Network

The author uses maps to help describe the various types of floods affecting the different regions of Afghanistan and to visualize their social and economic costs. It looks at the development of one key tool needed for effective action to prevent floods and reduce the damage they cause – Afghanistan’s first nationwide flood hazard map. The author then details the essential elements of any flood mitigation plan; needs, preparation, response and recovery; and mitigation. It delves into what was done during the Islamic Republic to fulfill these requirements and what the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) is doing now to help affected communities and ensure the risk of flooding is reduced in the future.

Decarbonization: Opportunities Exist to Improve the Department of Energy’s Management of Risks to Carbon Capture Projects, Rusco et al., Government Accountability Office

Carbon capture and direct air capture technologies have the potential to help the government meet the 2050 goal. The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act appropriated about $12 billion for DOE to administer new carbon capture and direct air capture projects. Congress included a provision in the USE IT Act for GAO to review federally funded carbon capture and direct air capture projects. This report (1) describes the funds obligated by DOE to support these projects from fiscal years 2018 through 2023 and (2) examines DOE’s project selection and management. GAO analyzed laws, regulations, and guidance; DOE funding data; and DOE documents for a sample of 40 projects. GAO selected projects to range in type, funding, and stage. GAO is recommending that DOE (1) more clearly document project risk treatment strategies and (2) ensure that DOE adheres to guidance for selecting projects that are deemed to be technically acceptable.

Energy Transition: The Road to Scale, Porter et al., Deloitte

To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, coordination across industries and economies can help to sequence the introduction of new policies and technologies. Regions will likely proceed at their own pace, with issues such as workforce readiness, supply chain visibility, cost advantages, water availability, and energy accessibility determining decision-making. Five strategic areas may require scaling, innovation, and adaptation to help catalyze impact globally. Progress within and across these areas could not only expedite the journey toward achieving net-zero goals but also demonstrate the interdependence of advancements in these areas.

Insights from EPRI’s Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Failure Incident Database, Srinivasan et al., EPRI

There is currently no public resource that categorizes battery energy storage systems (BESS) incidents by cause of failure. This information would provide industry-level insights on common and uncommon failure modes, and would help to prioritize needed mitigation technology R&D. This knowledge is particularly important because individual incident details and root cause information are not always easily accessible, but are crucial to improve safety and understand risk. Failure classification can help determine the role of different components of a BESS, from controls to battery cell/module, in contributing to an incident and in preventing future incidents. No current federal, state, or local jurisdiction requires incident reporting. The authors address the failure mode analysis gap by developing a classification system that is practical for both technical and non-technical stakeholders. Once categorized in a standardized manner, the aggregated failure data was analyzed to better understand trends in how, why, and how infrequently BESS fail, and to provide recommendations for future safety improvements.

Green Hydrogen Proposals Across California, Krieger et al., PSE Healthy Energy

The authors found that the existing plans for deploying green hydrogen in California often lack detail, but when these details are provided the plans rarely align. Indeed, misalignment exists across all aspects of California’s proposed green hydrogen system—from where and how hydrogen will be produced, to how it will be transported and used. In many cases, plans also lack sufficient detail to fully analyze the potential impacts, whether positive or negative, of the numerous hydrogen deployment strategies being proposed. Despite the many uncertainties embedded within California’s current green hydrogen proposals, the findings suggest that the adoption of green hydrogen—and its role in California’s economy-wide energy transition—will hold significant implications for climate change, public health, equity, safety, cost, the environment, and the overall feasibility and speed of achieving the State’s climate goals.

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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

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