Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2024
Posted on 6 June 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming, Yuan et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of +0.2±0.11">+0.2±0.11Wm−2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.
“We are not droids”– IPCC participants’ senses of responsibility and affective experiences across the production, assessment, communication and enactment of climate science, Hartz, Climatic Change:
The growing understanding of how and why the climate is changing has led to mounting calls on climate scientists to take on more responsibility in the context of climate science. While an increasing responsibilisation takes place in the academic literature, asking scientists to “do more”, there is limited engagement with the responsibilities that scientists already assume in practice. Drawing on novel empirical insights from 77 semi-structured interviews with participants of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), I take the increasing ‘peer-to-peer responsibilisation’ as a point of departure to contextualise such calls, asking what scientists themselves already feel and assume responsibility for at both the personal and professional level. I find that climate experts participating in the IPCC not only assume increasing responsibility across different stages of the IPCC process but also beyond. As my data analysis demonstrates, IPCC participants increasingly feel and take on responsibility not only for producing and assessing climate science but also for communicating and/or enacting it (PACE).
Global groundwater warming due to climate change, Benz et al., Nature Geoscience:
Focusing on diffusive heat transport, we simulate current and projected groundwater temperatures at the global scale. We show that groundwater at the depth of the water table (excluding permafrost regions) is conservatively projected to warm on average by 2.1 °C between 2000 and 2100 under a medium emissions pathway. However, regional shallow groundwater warming patterns vary substantially due to spatial variability in climate change and water table depth. The lowest rates are projected in mountain regions such as the Andes or the Rocky Mountains. We illustrate that increasing groundwater temperatures influences stream thermal regimes, groundwater-dependent ecosystems, aquatic biogeochemical processes, groundwater quality and the geothermal potential. Results indicate that by 2100 following a medium emissions pathway, between 77 million and 188 million people are projected to live in areas where groundwater exceeds the highest threshold for drinking water temperatures set by any country.
Direct observational evidence from space of the effect of CO2 increase on longwave spectral radiances: the unique role of high-spectral-resolution measurements, Teixeira et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics:
This paper presents direct evidence from space (solely based on observations) that CO2 increase leads to the theoretically expected effects on longwave spectral radiances. This is achieved by using a methodology that allows us to isolate the CO2 effects from the temperature and water vapor effects. By searching for ensembles of temperature and water vapor profiles that are similar to each other but have different values of CO2, it is possible to estimate the direct effects of CO2 on the spectra.
Russian dilemma for global arctic science, Rees & Büntgen, Ambio (perspective):
Polar regions are critically implicated in our understanding of global climate change. This is particularly the case for the Arctic, where positive feedback loops and climate tipping points enhance complexity and urgency. Half of the Arctic and much of the world’s permafrost zone lie within Russian territory. Heightened geopolitical tensions, however, have severely damaged scientific collaboration between Russia and previously well established academic partners in western countries. Isolation is now causing increasingly large data gaps in arctic research that affect our ability to make accurate predictions of the impact of climate change on natural and societal systems at all scales from local to global. Here, we argue that options to resume both practical knowledge of collaborative working and flows of research data from Russia for global arctic science must continue to be asserted, despite an increasing tendency for the Arctic to become disconnected.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Perceived threat of climate change in the second half of life, Bünning et al., German Centre of Gerontology
Over one in four people in the second half of life (28%) perceived a high threat from the climate crisis in 2023. Just over half (51%) rated the threat as medium, while about one in five (21%) perceived only a low threat from the climate crisis. Climate change is perceived as a significantly greater threat than Covid-19. On average, the threat of the climate crisis in 2023 was rated as 5.8 on a scale of 1 to 10. The perceived threat of COVID-19 was rated on average as only 3.1. Even at the peak of the pandemic in winter 2020/21, the perceived threat of 4.7 was more than one scale point below the perceived threat of the climate crisis in 2023. There are no age differences regarding the perceived threat posed by the climate crisis. In all four age groups, from middle to old age, the average perceived threat was between 5.6 and 5.9 on a scale of 1 to 10.
Climate change, El Niño and infrastructure failures behind massive floods in southern Brazil, Clarke et al., World Weather Attribution
Between 24 April and 4 May 2024 over 420 mm of rain fell in Brazil’s southernmost state Rio Grande do Sul, leading to more than 90% of the state being affected by flooding. Researchers from Brazil, the United Kingdom, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the US collaborated to answer the question of whether and to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the rainfall that caused the flooding. They also investigated the role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To assess the role of human-induced climate change the authors combined observation-based products and climate models that include the observed ENSO relationship and assess changes in the likelihood and intensity of the 10-day and 4-day heavy rainfall over Rio Grande do Sul, They found an increase in the likelihood for both events of more than a factor of 2 and intensity increase of 6-9% due to the burning of fossil fuels.
137 articles in 60 journals by 1060 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Divergent Impacts of Evapotranspiration by Plant CO2 Physiological Forcing on the Mean and Variability of Water Availability, Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040253
Polar Low Circulation Enhances Greenland's West Coast Cloud Surface Warming, Lac et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd040450
Roles of the atmosphere and ocean in the projected north atlantic warming hole, Li et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07289-w
Observations of climate change, effects
Climate change impacts on Central Asia: Trends, extremes and future projections, Fallah et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8519
Exceptional atmospheric conditions in June 2023 generated a northwest European marine heatwave which contributed to breaking land temperature records, Berthou et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01413-8
Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts, Leach et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7
Increasing Marine Heatwaves in the Gulf of Thailand after the Global Warming Hiatus, Wetchayont et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106570
Novel temperatures are already widespread beneath the world’s tropical forest canopies, Trew et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-02031-0
Update to aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence, Tenenbaum & Williams, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4676
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Direct observational evidence from space of the effect of CO2 increase on longwave spectral radiances: the unique role of high-spectral-resolution measurements, Teixeira et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-6375-2024
Moving to a new normal: Analysis of shifting climate normals in New Zealand, Srinivasan et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8521
Surface networks in the Arctic may miss a future methane bomb, Wittig et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-6359-2024
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Fast reduction of Atlantic SST threatens Europe-wide gross primary productivity under positive and negative CO2 emissions, Yang et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-024-00674-6
Future Change in the Vietnam Upwelling Under a High-Emission Scenario, Liao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108305
Heat index historical trends and projections due to climate change in the Mediterranean basin based on CMIP6, Alvarez et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107512
How Does Plant CO2 Physiological Forcing Amplify Amazon Warming in CMIP6 Earth System Models?, Kimm et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004223
Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl110135
Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity, East et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003941
Projection of large-scale atmospheric circulations over three poles and their remote climatic influences under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, Yang et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05039-w
Season-Dependent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Processes Driving SST Seasonality Changes in a Warmer Climate, Jo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106953
Storylines for Global Hydrologic Drought Within CMIP6, Bjarke et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004117
The Relative Importance of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss within the Response to Greenhouse Warming, Hay & Kushner, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0524.1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Fortran-Python Interface for Integrating Machine Learning Parameterization into Earth System Models, Zhang et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.171322761.17960693/v1
A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs), Meinshausen et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Inclusion of the radiative effect of deep convective clouds in the Eta model simulations, Campos et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4673
Pacific climate variability biases constrained warming projections towards low estimates, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02018-x
Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models, Séférian et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01464-x
Understanding the ENSO–East Asian winter monsoon relationship in CMIP6 models: performance evaluation and influencing factors, Guo et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07292-1
Cryosphere & climate change
Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector, Bett et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-2653-2024
No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point, Nitzbon et al., Open Access pdf 10.31223/x55x08
Pathways of Inter-Basin Exchange From the Bellingshausen Sea to the Amundsen Sea, Flexas et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020080
Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Relationship Between Barents-Kara Sea Ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Strommen & Cooper Cooper, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107609
Rapid Ice-Wedge Collapse and Permafrost Carbon Loss Triggered by Increased Snow Depth and Surface Runoff, Parmentier et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl108020
The complex basal morphology and ice dynamics of the Nansen Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, Dow et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-168
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Climate extremes in Svalbard over the last two millennia are linked to atmospheric blocking, Lapointe et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48603-8
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A shift in transitional forests of the North American boreal will persist through 2100, Montesano et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01454-z
Biodiversity and Climate Extremes: Known Interactions and Research Gaps, Mahecha et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003963
Climate change introduces threatened killer whale populations and conservation challenges to the Arctic, Garroway et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.11.25.568606
Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts, Van Nuland et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2308811121
Effects of water flow and ocean acidification on oxygen and pH gradients in coral boundary layer, Martins et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-63210-9
Global biogeography of microbes driving ocean ecological status under climate change, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-49124-0
Identification of suitable habitats and priority conservation areas under climate change scenarios for the Chinese alligator (Alligator sinensis), Yang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.11477
Increased water temperature contributes to a chondrogenesis response in the eyes of spotted wolffish, Kwabiah et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-63370-8
Influence of microclimate and forest management on bat species faced with global change, Andreozzi et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.14246
Is our understanding of aquatic ecosystems sufficient to quantify ecologically driven climate feedbacks?, Selden et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17351
Planning for a future of changes: Prioritising areas for conservation of small mammals in the Caatinga, Brazil, da Costa?Pinto et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access pdf 10.1111/ddi.13895
Regional uniqueness of tree species composition and response to forest loss and climate change, van Tiel et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48276-3
Species-level correlates of land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity in terrestrial vertebrates, Etard & Newbold, Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14208
Trends and Climate-Sensitivity of Phenology in China's Natural and Planted Forests, Xian et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007955
What if the upwelling weakens? Effects of rising temperature and nutrient depletion on coastal assemblages, Chabrerie & Arenas Arenas, Oecologia Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-024-05571-6
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Asynchronous Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Drive Temporal Variability of Mangrove Blue Carbon Sequestration, Zhu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107235
Carbon storage and carbon pool characteristics of Larix gmelinii forest in Daxing’anling, Inner Mongolia, China, Zhao et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1419023
Climate Impact on Dissolved Organic Carbon Composition in a North-Temperate Peatland and Recipient Surface Water, Berggren et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007807
Estimating the uncertainty of the greenhouse gas emission accounts in global multi-regional input–output analysis, Schulte et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-2669-2024
Future carbon sequestration potential in a widespread transcontinental boreal tree species: Standing genetic variation matters!, Robert et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17347
Global forest gaps reduce litterfall but increase litter carbon and phosphorus release, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01453-0
Human activities shape global patterns of decomposition rates in rivers, Tiegs et al., Science 10.1126/science.adn1262
In the Wake of Deeper Convection: Nonsteady State Anthropogenic Carbon in the Greenland Sea, Olsen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc020462
Increasing Methane Emissions and Widespread Cold-Season Release From High-Arctic Regions Detected Through Atmospheric Measurements, Ward et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jd040766
Into the unknown: The role of post-fire soil erosion in the carbon cycle, Girona?García et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17354
Loss of carbon stock in the forests of Uttarakhand due to unprecedented seasonal forest fires, Bargali et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access pdf 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1352265
Resolving heterogeneous fluxes from tundra halves the growing season carbon budget, Ludwig et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-119
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Surface networks in the Arctic may miss a future methane bomb, Wittig et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-6359-2024
The Importance of Contemporaneous Wind and pCO2 Measurements for Regional Air-Sea CO2 Flux Estimates, Nickford et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc020744
Underestimation of carbon dioxide emissions from organic-rich agricultural soils, Liang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01459-8
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Converging Findings of Climate Models and Satellite Observations on the Positive Impact of European Forests on Cloud Cover, Caporaso et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039235
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Sun et al., Energy & Fuels Open Access 10.1021/ef010067n
Decarbonization
Can battery electric vehicles meet sustainable energy demands? Systematically reviewing emissions, grid impacts, and coupling to renewable energy, Tuffour & Ewing, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103625
Decommissioned open-pit mines are potential geothermal sources of heating or cooling for nearby population centres, Carcamo-Medel et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01439-y
Demand-side strategies key for mitigating material impacts of energy transitions, Creutzig et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02016-z
Evaluation of a grid-connected PV power plant: performance and agrivoltaic aspects, Saka, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-024-05098-z
Harnessing energy potential from landfills across urban scales, de Oliveira Neves et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101466
LCA analysis of a roof mounted PV system: a Romanian case study, Rus et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1413629
Performance evaluation of grid-connected photovoltaic with pumped hydro storage system in high-rise building, Lahmer et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101470
Satellites Reveal Spatial Heterogeneity in Dryland Photovoltaic Plants' Effects on Vegetation Dynamics, Xia et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024ef004427
Geoengineering climate
Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming, Yuan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01442-3
Carbon Cycle Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection With Multiple Temperature Stabilization Targets and Strategies, Zhao et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024ef004474
Improving risk governance strategies via learning: a comparative analysis of solar radiation modification and gene drives, Grieger et al., Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10669-024-09979-6
Multi-Model Simulation of Solar Geoengineering Indicates Avoidable Destabilization of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Moore et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024ef004424
Toward an evidence-informed, responsible, and inclusive debate on solar geoengineering: A response to the proposed non-use agreement, Parson et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.903
Black carbon
Shipborne observations of black carbon aerosols in the western Arctic Ocean during summer and autumn 2016–2020: impact of boreal fires, Deng et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2315
Aerosols
Aerosol-induced closure of marine cloud cells: enhanced effects in the presence of precipitation, Christensen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-6455-2024
Climate change communications & cognition
Acting as we feel: which emotional responses to the climate crisis motivate climate action, Kovács et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102327
Acting on climate change concerns: lay perceptions of possibility, complexity and constraint, Irwin & Wright, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2024.2359765
“We are not droids”– IPCC participants’ senses of responsibility and affective experiences across the production, assessment, communication and enactment of climate science, Hartz, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03745-y
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A traits-based approach to assess aquaculture’s contributions to food, climate change, and biodiversity goals, Wong et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-024-00065-7
Climate change impacts on small pelagic fish distribution in Northwest Africa: trends, shifts, and risk for food security, Sarre et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-61734-8
Climate change mitigation-adaptation relationships in forest management: perspectives from the fire-prone American West, Carter et al., Regional Environmental Change 10.1007/s10113-024-02249-w
Farmer field schools, climate action plans and climate change resilience among smallholder farmers in Northern Ghana, Pienaah et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03755-w
Forester interest in, and limitations to, adapting to climate change across the rural-to-urban gradient, Schattman et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100624
Harnessing climate information service use for cocoa farming sustainability in Ghana, Tham-Agyekum et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2359984
Impact of climate change on the potential allocation of resources of rice cultivation in Yangtze-Huai Rivers region: a case study of Anhui Province, China, He et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05037-y
Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937
Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets, Hogan & Schlenker, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48388-w
Potential planting regions of Pterocarpus santalinus (Fabaceae) under current and future climate in China based on MaxEnt modeling, Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.11409
Predicting climate change impacts on potential distribution of cashew stem and root borer Neoplocaederus ferrugineus in India based on CMIP6 projections, Maruthadurai et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05017-2
Setting-aside cropland did not reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a drained peat soil in Sweden, Keck et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1386134
The influence of agricultural insurance on agricultural carbon emissions: evidence from China’s crop and livestock sectors, Jin et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1373184
Underestimation of carbon dioxide emissions from organic-rich agricultural soils, Liang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01459-8
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Analyzing land use and climate change impacts of Su?la water storage in Turkey, Çiftçi et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05043-0
Global groundwater warming due to climate change, Benz et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01453-x
Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on meteorological drought in China, Dai et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2024.1369523
Less than 4% of dryland areas are projected to desertify despite increased aridity under climate change, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01463-y
Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin, Salehie et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8490
Quantifying the urbanization and climate change-induced impact on changing patterns of rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency via nonstationary models, Xu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101990
Climate change economics
Designing development programmes for climate change and uncertainty in Pacific Melanesia – the role for knowledge brokers, Butler et al., Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2024.2353829
Economic quantification of Loss and Damage funding needs, Tavoni et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00565-7
Financing just energy transitions in Southeast Asia: Application of the Just Transition Transaction to Indonesia, Vietnam, and Philippines, Jindal et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101472
Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi, Mukashov et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Anchoring a just transition: The ambivalent roles of Norwegian trade unions, Jordhus-Lier et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103619
Constructing and implementing a green taxation system in China under the dual-carbon target, Liu, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1392244
Deciphering the future of electric vehicles amid emissions and adoption drivers, Mehmood et al., Ambio 10.1007/s13280-024-02026-3
EU carbon prices signal high policy credibility and farsighted actors, Sitarz et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-024-01505-x
Evaluating community solar as a measure to promote equitable clean energy access, O’Shaughnessy et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01546-2
Expert perception of sustainable energy transition: A case study of Busan Metropolitan City, South Korea, Nam et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101465
Governing offshore wind: is an ‘Asia-Pacific Model’ emerging?, Hughes et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2359010
Health co-benefits and trade-offs of carbon pricing: a narrative synthesis, Cuevas et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2356822
Large differences between observed and expected Ecuadorian deforestation from 2001 to 2009: a counterfactual simulation approach, Calvas et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02253-0
Marginal curtailment of wind and solar PV: Transmission constraints, pricing and access regimes for efficient investment, Newbery & Biggar Biggar, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114206
Nationwide geographical data can help to overcome network challenges in reaching net zero, , Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01543-5
Price or public participation? Community benefits for onshore wind in Ireland, Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom, , Oil and Energy Trends Open Access 10.1111/oet.9_12416
QGIS-based modeling and analysis of urban dynamics affecting land surface temperature towards climate hazards in coastal zones of Portugal, Isinkaralar, Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06519-y
Regulating production rather than consumption? Comparing the challenges of supply-side and demand-side climate agreements, Stankovic et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103601
Renewables but unjust? Critical restoration geography as a framework for addressing global renewable energy injustice, Nsude et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103609
Social and economic impact analysis of solar mini-grids in rural Africa: a cohort study from Kenya and Nigeria, Carabajal et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad4ffb
Socio-technical imaginaries of climate-neutral aviation, Muehlberger et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103595
The economic and environmental consequences of the electric vehicle transition in India, Prabhu & Mukhopadhyay, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101459
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Building resilience in Asian mega-deltas, Chan et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00561-x
Empowering indigenous groups: Unveiling a new approach to adaptive-participative sustainable energy in solar pumping projects via a Mayan community in Central America, El-Mekaoui et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103589
Forester interest in, and limitations to, adapting to climate change across the rural-to-urban gradient, Schattman et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100624
North–South Disparity in Impact of Climate Change on “Outdoor Days”, Choi et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0346.1
Climate change impacts on human health
Global groundwater warming due to climate change, Benz et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01453-x
Health co-benefits and trade-offs of carbon pricing: a narrative synthesis, Cuevas et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2356822
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Climate-induced migration: The need to address human rights to water and sanitation for a growing displaced population, Guedes et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103799
Is our understanding of aquatic ecosystems sufficient to quantify ecologically driven climate feedbacks?, Selden et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17351
Overlooked technological and societal trends that will level-up our fight against climate change, Beaumont, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1387079
Russian dilemma for global arctic science, Rees & Büntgen, Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-024-02038-z
Shifting institutional culture to develop climate solutions with Open Science, Lowndes et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.11341
Toward an evidence-informed, responsible, and inclusive debate on solar geoengineering: A response to the proposed non-use agreement, Parson et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.903
Voices of the absent: The agency of Nature and Future in climate regeneration, Vidal & Alves, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000420
‘This is not a forum for reducing poverty’: the moral economy of the voluntary carbon market, Teo, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2024.2359766
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Perceived threat of climate change in the second half of life, Bünning et al., German Centre of Gerontology
Over one in four people in the second half of life (28%) perceived a high threat from the climate crisis in 2023. Just over half (51%) rated the threat as medium, while about one in five (21%) perceived only a low threat from the climate crisis. Climate change is perceived as a significantly greater threat than Covid-19. On average, the threat of the climate crisis in 2023 was rated as 5.8 on a scale of 1 to 10. The perceived threat of COVID-19 was rated on average as only 3.1. Even at the peak of the pandemic in winter 2020/21, the perceived threat of 4.7 was more than one scale point below the perceived threat of the climate crisis in 2023. There are no age differences regarding the perceived threat posed by the climate crisis. In all four age groups, from middle to old age, the average perceived threat was between 5.6 and 5.9 on a scale of 1 to 10.
Voters Say Climate Anxiety Negatively Impacts Their Daily Lives, Catherine Fraser and Grace Adcox, Data for Progress
As Americans continue to learn about climate change and experience in real-time its impacts — like the tornadoes that recently devastated Texas — concern, worry, and anxiety about climate change are predicted to rise. The authors find that nearly 3 in 4 voters (74%) are somewhat or very concerned that future generations will be more affected by climate change than they will be in their lifetime. This includes a majority of Democrats (94%), Independents (71%), and Republicans (59%). Beyond concern for future generations, voters report that their feelings about climate change negatively impact aspects of their daily lives. A majority say they feel negatively affected a little or a lot when planning for the future (55%) and spending time in nature (54%). Meanwhile, many voters also report experiencing negative impacts on relaxing (44%), eating (43%), sleeping (39%), concentrating (38%), work or school (33%), and relationships (30%) as a result of their feelings about climate change.
Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption, Jordan Aljbour and Tom Wilson, Electric Power Research Institute
To provide an early assessment of potential data center load growth at the national level, the authors developed low, moderate, high, and higher growth scenarios for data center loads from 2023 to 2030. Data centers grow to consume 4.6% to 9.1% of U.S. electricity generation annually by 2030 versus an estimated 4% today. While the national-level growth estimates are significant, it is even more striking to consider the geographic concentration of the industry and the local challenges this growth can create. Today, 15 states account for 80% of the national data center load, with data centers estimated to comprise a quarter of Virginia’s electric load in 2023. The concentration of demand is also evident globally, with data centers projected to make up almost one-third of Ireland’s total electricity demand by 2026.
Small Modular Reactors. Still Too Expensive, Still Too Slow, and Still Too Risky, David Schlissel and Dennis Wamsted, The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
Small modular reactors still look to be too expensive, too slow to build, and too risky to play a significant role in transitioning from fossil fuels in the coming 10-15 years. Investment in SMRs will take resources away from carbon-free and lower-cost renewable technologies that are available today and can push the transition from fossil fuels forward significantly in the coming 10 years. Experience with operating and proposed SMRs shows that the reactors will continue to cost far more and take much longer to build than promised by proponents. Regulators, utilities, investors, and government officials should embrace the reality that renewables, not SMRs, are the near-term solution to the energy transition.
State of the Voluntary Carbon Market 2024, Alex Procton, Forest Trends Association
The author provides a comprehensive overview of the global supply and demand of voluntary carbon credits. 2023 was an unusual year for the market. Along with being the hottest year on record, it was also the year that the debate about the voluntary carbon market reached a fever pitch. Galvanized by widely read media coverage spotlighting cases of unethical or ineffective carbon projects and standards, public perception of carbon credits took a sharp turn toward the negative.
Benchmarking Methane and Other Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Oil & Natural Gas Production in the United States, Hellgren et al., Clean Air Task Force and Ceres
Of 298 oil and natural gas producers with reported data, the top 100 oil and gas producers (by total energy production) were responsible for around 91% of energy production and approximately 74% and 76%, respectively, of total reported methane and GHG emissions in 2022. Methane and GHG intensity declined 31% and 17%, respectively, between 2020 and 2022 due to a reduction in methane and total GHG emissions reported to EPA and an increase in natural gas and total hydrocarbon production. However, these trends are not consistent across basins or individual companies and can fluctuate from year to year, e.g., increase in 2020-2021 and decrease in 2021-2022. Total reported methane emissions have declined since 2019, largely driven by the reduction of reported emissions from pneumatic controllers and equipment leaks. Total CO2 emissions have plateaued since 2020 as flaring emissions fall but emissions from combustion equipment increase.
Evaluating the Impact of the Connect the Grid Act for Texas, Botterud et al., Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The authors present the preliminary results of their evaluation of the Connect the Grid Act, legislation that would require the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to establish transfer capabilities to its neighboring regions. The authors used a capacity expansion model to compare systems with and without the Connect the Grid Act, analyzing its current provisions as well as variations of its requirements. The Connect the Grid Act would increase grid reliability during extreme weather events. In a simulation of a storm similar in profile to Winter Storm Uri, the Connect the Grid Act leads to 48% fewer households in the low requirement scenario and 79% fewer households in the high requirement scenario. Varying the requirements shows that more transmission leads to fewer outages. The Connect the Grid Act would reduce total U.S. system cost by $901 million annually in the bill’s low requirement scenario and $1.24 billion in the high requirement scenario.
Mining the Sun, The Nature Conservancy
The authors provide energy planners, such as state energy offices and permitting agencies, developers and utilities, and community development organizations a concise guide to address the opportunities and challenges to siting renewables on brownfields and mine lands. The resources and analyses featured in this report are intended to both complement and provide a concise summary of the extensive body of work initiated by the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and other governmental and non-governmental organizations looking to transform industrialized landscapes into clean energy hubs.
Who thinks people can affect what the government does about global warming?, Badullovich et al., Yale University and George Mason University
The author's analysis uses data from the Climate Change in the American Mind survey (October 2023; n = 1,033 U.S. adults) to explore perceptions of collective political efficacy, and how confident Americans are that people like them can affect what the U.S. federal government does about global warming. Overall, Americans’ perceptions of collective political efficacy have increased slightly since December 2018. In 2018, 38% of Americans felt at least “moderately confident” that they could affect what the federal government does about global warming. This increased to 43% of Americans by October 2023 (a 5 percentage point increase over five years). This trend differed, however, by political party. Among registered voters, Democrats (+11 percentage points from 46% in 2018 to 57% in 2023) and Independents (+11 percentage points from 32% in 2018 to 43% in 2023) experienced a large increase in collective political efficacy, whereas Republicans saw a small, but not statistically significant decrease (-5 percentage points from 28% in 2018 to 23% in 2023).
Clean Investment Monitor: Q1 2024 Update, Bermel et al., Rhodium Group and MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
Clean energy and transportation investment in the United States continued its record-setting growth in Q1 of 2024, reaching a new high of $71 billion. This continues a sustained quarter-on-quarter growth trend that began in Q1 2021, with a 40% increase in Q1 of 2024 from the same period in 2023. Clean investment accounted for 5.1% of total US private investment in structures, equipment, and durable consumer goods in the United States, compared to 3.7% in Q1 2023.
Climate change, El Niño and infrastructure failures behind massive floods in southern Brazil, Clarke et al., World Weahter Attribution
Between 24 April and 4 May 2024 over 420 mm of rain fell in Brazil’s southernmost state Rio Grande do Sul, leading to more than 90% of the state being affected by flooding. Researchers from Brazil, the United Kingdom, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the US collaborated to answer the question of whether and to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the rainfall that caused the flooding. They also investigated the role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To assess the role of human-induced climate change the authors combined observation-based products and climate models that include the observed ENSO relationship and assess changes in the likelihood and intensity of the 10-day and 4-day heavy rainfall over Rio Grande do Sul, They found an increase in the likelihood for both events of more than a factor of 2 and intensity increase of 6-9% due to the burning of fossil fuels.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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