Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2024
Posted on 27 June 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion, Bradley & Hewitt, Nature Geoscience:
Here we develop a model to capture the feedback between intruded ocean water, the melting it induces and the resulting changes in ice geometry. We reveal a sensitive dependence of the grounding-zone dynamics on this feedback: as the grounding zone widens in response to melting, both temperature and flow velocity in the region increase, further enhancing melting. We find that increases in ocean temperature can lead to a tipping point being passed, beyond which ocean water intrudes in an unbounded manner beneath the ice sheet, via a process of runaway melting. Additionally, this tipping point may not be easily detected with early warning indicators. Although completely unbounded intrusions are not expected in practice, this suggests a mechanism for dramatic changes in grounding-zone behaviour, which are not currently included in ice-sheet models. We consider the susceptibility of present-day Antarctic grounding zones to this process, finding that both warm and cold water cavity ice shelves may be vulnerable. Our results point towards a stronger sensitivity of ice-sheet melting, and thus higher sea-level-rise contribution in a warming climate, than has been previously understood.
Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world, Wan et al., Nature Climate Change:
Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a geoengineering proposal to cool atmospheric temperatures and reduce climate change impacts. As large-scale approaches to stabilize global mean temperatures pose governance challenges, regional interventions may be more attractive near term. Here we investigate the efficacy of regional MCB in the North Pacific to mitigate extreme heat in the Western United States. Under present-day conditions, we find MCB in the remote mid-latitudes or proximate subtropics reduces the relative risk of dangerous summer heat exposure by 55% and 16%, respectively. However, the same interventions under mid-century warming minimally reduce or even increase heat stress in the Western United States and across the world. This loss of efficacy may arise from a state-dependent response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to both anthropogenic warming and regional MCB. Our result demonstrates a risk in assuming that interventions effective under certain conditions will remain effective as the climate continues to change.
Millions of climate refugees are coming!’ A critical media discourse analysis on climate change-induced migrants in Flemish press, Bonneux & Van Praag, Environmental Sociology:
The rise in research, policy and news on climate change-induced migration has grown exponentially over the last two decades. Migration related to global warming is increasingly portrayed as inevitable and used to mobilise people to act immediately against climate change. By analysing the discourse of two Flemish news media journals (De Standaard and Het Laatste Nieuws) and the Belgian national news agency (Belga), indexed by the GoPress database (1985–2022), this paper aims to present how migration and climate change are linked to each other in the media, how this differs across media outlets, and reflects on potential outcomes of this framing. Results indicate that climate-induced migration is often portrayed in an apocalyptic way and seen as an inevitable threat that needs to be avoided. The used terminology and the portrayals of climate change-induced migration are not in line with the scientific evidence on this topic.
Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women’s welfare globally, Carr et al., Nature Climate Change:
In rural households lacking access to running water, women often bear the responsibility for its collection, with adverse effects on their well being through long daily time commitments, physical strain and mental distress. Here we show that rising temperatures will exacerbate this water collection burden globally. Using fixed-effects regression, we analyse the effect of climate conditions on self-reported water collection times for 347 subnational regions across four continents from 1990 to 2019. Historically, a 1 °C temperature rise increased daily water collection times by 4 minutes. Reduced precipitation historically increased water collection time, most strongly where precipitation levels were low or fewer women employed. Accordingly, due to warming by 2050, daily water collection times for women without household access could increase by 30% globally and up to 100% regionally, under a high-emissions scenario.
Managing values in climate science, Roussos, PLOS Climate
Climate science has been deeply affected by social and political values in the last fifty years [1]. If we focus on climate denial and obfuscation, we might see the influence of values as wholly negative and aim instead for objective, value-free climate science. But, perhaps surprisingly, this is at odds with the view of many philosophers who study the influence of values on science. Science cannot and should not be free from values, they argue. Rather, we should be transparent about our values, study their influence, and ensure that the right values play the right roles. But philosophers alone cannot determine what the right values are or what their appropriate use is. Close collaboration between climate scientists and philosophers is required for values in climate science to be accurately studied and appropriately managed.
From this week's government and NGO section:
People's Climate Vote 2024, United Nations Development Programme:
80 percent – or four out of five - people globally want their governments to take stronger action to tackle the climate crisis. Even more - 86 percent - want to see their countries set aside geopolitical differences and work together on climate change. The scale of consensus is especially striking in the current global context of increased conflict and the rise of nationalism. Over 73,000 people speaking 87 different languages across 77 countries were asked 15 questions on climate change for the survey. The questions were designed to help understand how people are experiencing the impacts of climate change and how they want world leaders to respond. The 77 countries polled represent 87 percent of the global population.
Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience, Dahl et al., Union of Concerned Scientists:
The nearly 90 million people living in U.S. coastal communities depend on an array of critical infrastructure—from the schools that students attend to the power and wastewater treatment plants that provide electricity and clean water. However, research by the authors shows that between now and 2050, climate change–driven sea level rise will expose more than 1,600 critical infrastructure assets coastwide to disruptive flooding at least twice per year. Future flooding particularly threatens public and affordable housing. This burden is borne inequitably: more than half the infrastructure at risk by 2050 is in communities at a disadvantage based on historical and ongoing racism, discrimination, and pollution. The amount of infrastructure in jeopardy late this century will depend heavily on countries’ choices about global heat-trapping emissions. Policymakers and public and private decision-makers must take immediate, science-based steps to safeguard critical infrastructure and achieve true, long-term coastal resilience.
146 articles in 65 journals by 860 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Aitken Mode Aerosols Buffer Decoupled Mid-Latitude Boundary Layer Clouds Against Precipitation Depletion, McCoy et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039572
Depth-dependent warming of the Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba), Sengupta et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03765-8
Radiative Heating of High-Level Clouds and Its Impacts on Climate, Haslehner et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jd040850
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic Influences on the Extremely Dry and Hot Summer of 2020 in Southern China and Projected Changes in the Likelihood of the Event, Wang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100706
Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming, Lemus-Canovas et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102019
Impact of decreasing land–sea horizontal pressure gradient on the lightning activity over western India, Gangane et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8542
Rapid summer Russian Arctic sea-ice loss enhances the risk of recent Eastern Siberian wildfires, Luo et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-49677-0
Recent tendencies of extreme heat events in Italy, Settanta et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-024-05063-w
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
climetrics: an R package to quantify multiple dimensions of climate change, Taheri et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.07176
CODC-v1: a quality-controlled and bias-corrected ocean temperature profile database from 1940–2023, Zhang et al., Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-024-03494-8
Using Ocean Ambient Sound to Measure Local Integrated Deep Ocean Temperature, Ragland et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108943
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Changes in the Typhoon Intensity under a Warming Climate: A Numerical Study of Typhoon Mangkhut, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0567.1
Extreme climate events and future population exposure under climate change in the Huaihe River basin of China based on CMIP6 multimodel ensembles projections, Yao et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8543
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis, Dolores-Tesillos & Pfahl Pfahl Pfahl, Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1382
Multiple thermal AMOC thresholds in the intermediate complexity model Bern3D, Adloff et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2023-82
The study of the impact of polar warming on global atmospheric circulation and mid-latitude baroclinic waves using a laboratory analog, Sukhanovskii et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.5194/wcd-5-863-2024
Twenty-first century marine climate projections for the NW European shelf seas based on a perturbed parameter ensemble, Tinker et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-20-835-2024
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An assessment of the CMIP6 performance in simulating Arctic sea ice volume flux via Fram Strait, Kuang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.008
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Does Increasing Horizontal Resolution Improve the Simulation of Intense Tropical Rainfall in GFDL's AM4 Model?, Nikumbh et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106708
Dominant Sources of Uncertainty for Downscaled Climate: A Military Installation Perspective, Kim et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jd040935
Energy Gain Kernel for Climate Feedbacks. Part I: Formulation and Physical Understanding, Cai et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-23-0148.1
Incorporation of RCM-simulated spatial details into climate change projections derived from global climate models, Ruosteenoja & Räisänen Räisänen, Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07258-3
Multi-decadal climate variability and satellite biases have amplified model-observation discrepancies in tropical troposphere warming estimates, Chung et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01510-8
Present-day correlations are insufficient to predict cloud albedo change by anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM v2, Mahfouz et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-7253-2024
Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation, Eade et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-024-07311-1
Cryosphere & climate change
Assessing the benefits of approximately exact step sizes for Picard and Newton solver in simulating ice flow (FEniCS-full-Stokes v.1.3.2), Schmidt et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4943-2024
Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model, Hoffman et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-2917-2024
Seawater oxygen isotopes as a tool for monitoring future meltwater from the Antarctic ice-sheet, Kim & Timmermann, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01514-4
Sensitivities of the West Greenland Current to Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater in a Mesoscale Ocean/Sea Ice Model, Morrison et al., Journal of Physical Oceanography 10.1175/jpo-d-23-0102.1
Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion, Bradley & Hewitt, Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-024-01465-7
Sea level & climate change
A framework for physically consistent storylines of UK future mean sea level rise, Palmer et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03734-1
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Controlling factors for the global meridional overturning circulation: A lesson from the Paleozoic, Yuan et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adm7813
Investigating similarities and differences of the penultimate and last glacial terminations with a coupled ice sheet–climate model, Quiquet & Roche Roche Roche, Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-1365-2024
Multiple thermal AMOC thresholds in the intermediate complexity model Bern3D, Adloff et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-2023-82
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A framework for understanding climate change impacts through non-compensatory intra- and interspecific climate change responses, Coblentz et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17378
Adapting to change: Exploring the consequences of climate-induced host plant shifts in two specialist Lepidoptera species, Bovay et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11596
Biodiversity buffers the response of spring leaf unfolding to climate warming, Shen et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02035-w
Biodiversity reduces the advancement of leaf green-up with climate warming, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02039-6
Bumble bee responses to climate and landscapes: Investigating habitat associations and species assemblages across geographic regions in the United States of America, Christman et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.10.16.562230
Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world’s coral reefs, Mellin et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adn9660
Elevation Regulates the Response of Climate Heterogeneity to Climate Change, Guan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109483
Five decades of ecological and meteorological data enhance the mechanistic understanding of global change impacts on the treeline ecotone in the European Alps, Lechler et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110126
Forecasting climate change impacts on neotropical Myotis: Insights from ecological niche models for conservation strategies, de Oliveira et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11419
Meteorological, snow and soil data, CO2, water and energy fluxes, from a low-Arctic valley in the forest-tundra ecotone of Northern Quebec, Lackner et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-7
Microbial dynamics in rapidly transforming Arctic proglacial landscapes, Marsh et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000337
Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot, Boyce et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-024-00067-5
Plant functional group interactions intensify with warming in alpine grasslands, Jaroszynska et al., Ecography 10.1111/ecog.07018
Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Capricornis milneedwardsii, a vulnerable mammal in China, Zhao et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11582
Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model, Custer et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.4362
Projected loss of brown macroalgae and seagrasses with global environmental change, Manca et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48273-6
Rapid advance of climatic tree limits in the Eastern Alps explained by on-site temperatures, Körner & Hiltbrunner, Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02259-8
Similar climate–growth relationships but divergent drought resilience strategies in coexisting Mediterranean shrubs, Tamudo et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14355
Sustainable nature-based solutions require establishment and maintenance of keystone plant-pollinator interactions, Rafferty & Cosma Christopher T. Cosma Christopher T. Cosma, Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14353
Symbiotic endolithic microbes reduce host vulnerability to an unprecedented heatwave., Zardi et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106622
Warming effects on the life cycles of two parasitic copepods with different invasion histories, Jolma et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11485
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Anthropogenically Driven Changes in the Carbon to Phosphorus Ratio of Marine Dissolved Organic Matter, Sreeush et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb008069
Bomb radiocarbon evidence for strong global carbon uptake and turnover in terrestrial vegetation, Graven et al., Science 10.1126/science.adl4443
Carbon Outwelling and Uptake Along a Tidal Glacier-Lagoon-Ocean Continuum, Ljungberg et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2023jg007895
Constraints and Drivers of Dissolved Fluxes of Pyrogenic Carbon in Soil and Freshwater Systems: A Global Review and Meta-Analysis, Abney et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb008092
Emission Characteristics of Greenhouse Gases and Air Pollutants in Northern Hemisphere Cities: Comprehensive Assessment Using Ground-Based Fourier Transform Spectrometers, Lee et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040562
European CH4 inversions with ICON-ART coupled to the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell, Steiner et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-853
Global pattern of organic carbon pools in forest soils, Zhang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17386
Global turnover of soil mineral-associated and particulate organic carbon, Zhou et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-49743-7
Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model, Dorheim et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024
How much carbon is stored in the stem bark of Austrian trees?, Sinan et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2363747
Interannual Variation and Trend of Carbon Budget Observed for More Than Two Decades at Takayama in a Cool-Temperate Deciduous Forest in Central Japan, Murayama et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2023jg007769
Intrinsic microbial temperature sensitivity and soil organic carbon decomposition in response to climate change, Li et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17395
Long-term soil warming decreases soil microbial necromass carbon by adversely affecting its production and decomposition, Liu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17379
No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01504-6
Numerical Investigation of Observational Flux Partitioning Methods for Water Vapor and Carbon Dioxide, Zahn et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jg008025
Projecting the response of carbon sink potential to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions, Wang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1380868
Revisiting the Global Methane Cycle Through Expert Opinion, Rosentreter et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004234
Revisiting Winter Southern Ocean CO2 Uptake Based on CALIPSO Observations, Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2024gl108335
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The challenge of estimating global termite methane emissions, Law et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17390
The Distinct Composition and Transformation of Terrestrial Organic Carbon in the Yukon River Delta and Plume During the Mighty Spring Freshet, Burns et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007812
Variability in zoobenthic blue carbon storage across a southern polar gradient, Frinault & Barnes, Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106621
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Environmental impact investigation of combined CCS and SCR on a ship by a case study, Zincir et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2291
Global Warming Potentials of CO2 Uptake, CH4 Emissions, and Albedo Changes in a Restored Mangrove Ecosystem, Xu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007924
The effects of policy uncertainty and risk aversion on carbon capture, utilization, and storage investments, Colombe et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114212
Decarbonization
EV charging and fuel cell vehicle refuelling with distributed energy resources using hybrid approach, Senthilkumar et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05138-8
In situ performance evaluation of a solar water heating system for a hospital laundry in the Sahel, Lekombo et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101499
Resource assessment and techno-economic analysis of solar pv integrated hybrid off-grid power generation system: a case study of Krishnanagar, India, Pramanick et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05140-0
Sustainability certification for renewable hydrogen: An international survey of energy professionals, Goodwin et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114231
Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions of green hydrogen production and transport, de Kleijne et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01563-1
Geoengineering climate
Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world, Wan et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02046-7
Public attitude toward solar radiation modification: results of a two-scenario online survey on perception in four Asia–Pacific countries, Sugiyama et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-024-01520-7
Quantifying the Impact of Internal Variability on the CESM2 Control Algorithm for Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Connolly et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004300
Aerosols
Why does stratospheric aerosol forcing strongly cool the warm pool?, Günther et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024
Climate change communications & cognition
Computational methods for climate change frame analysis: Techniques, critiques, and cautious ways forward, Hirsbrunner, WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.902
Meaning Across Context: Oral Histories, Big Data, and Climate Change, Olson & Pinto da Silva, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0114.1
Millions of climate refugees are coming!’ A critical media discourse analysis on climate change-induced migrants in Flemish press, Bonneux & Van Praag, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2024.2369738
No agency and responsibility for the privileged? Perceptions of climate action among high socioeconomic status citizens in the United Kingdom, Duncan et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103604
School is not enough: The role of climate-specific knowledge for transformative climate policy and economic system preferences, Eichhorn et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-024-00953-x
The effects of communicating climate change threat: mobilizing anger and authoritarian affect displacement, Spaiser et al., Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2024.2369739
Widespread misestimates of greenhouse gas emissions suggest low carbon competence, Johnson et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02032-z
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Climate variability and indigenous adaptation strategies by Somali pastoralists in Ethiopia, Kebede et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-024-04993-9
Greenhouse gas mitigation on croplands: clarifying the debate on knowns, unknowns and risks to move forward with effective management interventions, Oldfield et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2024.2365896
Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Predicting climate-based changes of landscape structure for Turkiye via global climate change scenarios: a case study in Bartin river basin with time series analysis for 2050, Kalayci Kadak et al., Natural Hazards Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-024-06706-x
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Analyzing the Contribution of Moisture Sources to Precipitation Changes Under 1.5/2.0°C Stabilized Warming Scenarios: A Study Over Northwest China, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040298
Climate change trend analysis and future projection in Guguf watershed, Northern Ethiopia, Mohammed & Bezabih Bezabeh, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-024-05068-5
Contributions of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases and Aerosol Emissions to Changes in Summer Precipitation Over Southern China, Xu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040331
Differing Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases on Precipitation Intensity Percentiles Over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, Luo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040202
Estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in Hong Kong under future changing climate based on statistical downscaling, Chan et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.101988
How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake-Effect Snow Storm?, Kayastha et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004622
Mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change on river water quality through adaptation strategies: A Case Study of the Ardak Catchment, Northeast Iran, Nikakhtar et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05057-8
Phase and Amplitude Changes in Rainfall Annual Cycle Over Global Land Monsoon Regions Under Global Warming, Lv et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108496
Climate change economics
The impact of air transportation, trade openness, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia, Aldegheishem, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1366054
Climate change mitigation public policy research
(Dis)comfortably numb in energy transitions: Gauging residential hard-to-reach energy users in the European Union, Sequeira et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103612
Accelerating renewable heat: Overcoming barriers to shared-loop ground source heat pump systems in the United Kingdom, Brown et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103644
Advancing sustainable industrial development in Africa: the role of institutional quality and renewable energy, Babatunde & Afolabi, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05170-8
An Indigenous climate justice policy analysis tool, Jones et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2362845
An interdisciplinary approach for successful municipal energy transition communication, Palm et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-024-00960-y
Carbon footprinting of railway infrastructure: a standardized, consistent data collection method, Najafpour Navaei et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2368839
Effect of renewable energy subsidy policy on firms’ total factor productivity: The threshold effect, Lin & Xie, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114241
From trust to transition: Residential customer acceptance of circular solar business models, Van Opstal & Manshoven, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103647
How does government climate risk perception affect corporate energy consumption and intensity?, Chen et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101496
Key strategies for achieving net-zero carbon buildings and promoting carbon credits in construction markets: A case of an emerging economy, Van Tam et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101488
Lost in communication: The vanished momentum of just transition in South Korea, Lee et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103642
Mapping construction sector greenhouse gas emissions: a crucial step in sustainably meeting increasing housing demands, Yoffe et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad546a
Optimization of coal power phaseout pathways ensuring energy security: Evidence from Shandong, China's largest coal power province, Wu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114180
Political factors in renewable energy generation: Do populism, carbon tax and feed-in tariffs matter?, Przychodzen, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103628
Sufficiency of level 1 charging to meet electric vehicle charging requirements, Fried et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad590a
The life and death of good intentions? Unravelling participatory design processes of three Dutch solar power plants, Enserink et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103620
Trilemma of life cycle carbon, employment, and costs of trucking industry's shift toward automation and electrification, Mandouri et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology 10.1111/jiec.13516
Warming climate apathy to mitigate the disparity in climate policy support across distinct income strata, Tian et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114245
Why should imminent international funds for solar photovoltaics go to families and the private sector and not to the government to stop the electricity crisis in Lebanon?, Merheb, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114223
Wind energy cost evaluation based on a techno-economic assessment in the Algerian highlands, Aroua et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101502
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate Justice and Climate Adaptation in California: Indigenous Community Climate Adaptation Leadership and Opportunities for Scientific Collaboration, Martinez et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0112.1
Cross-border dimensions of Arctic climate change impacts and implications for Europe, Mosoni et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.905
Engaging diverse knowledge holders in adaptation research, Cundill et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02056-5
Toward vulnerability-responsive climate adaptation decision making: group inclusiveness as prime driver of local participation, Koomson & Koomson, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2368173
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate change is aggravating dengue and yellow fever transmission risk, Aliaga?Samanez et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1111/ecog.06942
Climate change impacts on human culture
Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women’s welfare globally, Carr et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-02037-8
Other
Making Progress on the Operational Alerting of El Niño and La Niña in a Warming World, Wheeler et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0095.1
Observations of diapycnal upwelling within a sloping submarine canyon, Wynne-Cattanach et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-024-07411-2
The Mixed Layer Salinity Balance in the Western Arctic Ocean, Zhong et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc020591
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges, Mariotti et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004187
Making Global Climate Action work for nature and people: Priorities for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience, Boran et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103803
Managing values in climate science, Roussos, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000432
Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot, Boyce et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-024-00067-5
Providing Better Support for Entrepreneurial Activities in the Weather, Water, and Climate Community, Seitter et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0301.1
What is the role of scientists in meeting the environmental challenges of the twenty-first century?, Gregory et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.240498
Book reviews
Clean air at what cost? The rise of Blunt Force Regulation in China, An, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2024.2372237
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Solar Risk Assessment 2024, Thompson et al., kWh Analytics
Advanced risk management strategies and accurate insurance modeling are essential to accurately assess and mitigate the growing threat of extreme weather events on solar and storage assets, while technological advancements and best practices in module design and operation enhance resilience. Comprehensive O&M planning, including proactive maintenance scheduling, resource allocation, and effective soiling mitigation strategies is crucial to minimize system downtime, optimize performance, and reduce the impact of seasonal variations on energy production. Rigorous safety and quality control measures, such as regular inspections and preventive maintenance, are essential to ensure the safe and reliable operation of PV systems and mitigate risks. The rapid growth of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) necessitates a strong focus on fire safety, thermal management, and system integration to address the unique risks associated with these deployments and ensure their long-term viability.
People's Climate Vote 2024, United Nations Development Programme
80 percent – or four out of five - people globally want their governments to take stronger action to tackle the climate crisis. Even more - 86 percent - want to see their countries set aside geopolitical differences and work together on climate change. The scale of consensus is especially striking in the current global context of increased conflict and the rise of nationalism. Over 73,000 people speaking 87 different languages across 77 countries were asked 15 questions on climate change for the survey. The questions were designed to help understand how people are experiencing the impacts of climate change and how they want world leaders to respond. The 77 countries polled represent 87 percent of the global population.
Climate Change in China's Governance: Agenda, Agents, and International Collaboration, Guoguang Wu, Asia Society Policy Institute
The author investigates China’s climate-related policies, politics, governance, and international relations. Xi Jinping’s leadership has paid special attention to climate action. China’s leaders are motivated to pursue climate action primarily by politics, although the goals of reducing energy dependence, upgrading China’s development model to catch up with green technologies, improving the regime’s governance capacity, and supporting China’s global strategy and foreign conduct are also important. Among these goals, two stand out—catching up with the green technology revolution and increasing national security by reducing energy dependence—because of their impact on China’s industrial policy and future industrial structures.
“Now What?” Addressing the Climate-Gender-Security Nexus at NATO, Siena Cicarelli and Cori Fleser, The Center for Climate and Security
NATO calls out the need to include gender perspectives as part of its climate change awareness efforts in the context of NATO’s Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) policy. The climate, gender, and security nexus calls attention to the linkages between climate change and conflict and how gender is a cross-cutting lens through which people experience both issues. Experts have extensively demonstrated that addressing climate change and its impacts on security is critical to NATO’s mission and core tasks. If NATO is to become the leading international organization when it comes to understanding and adapting to the impact of climate change on security, it will need to understand and be responsive to the climate, gender, and security nexus.
Climate Change and Armed Groups. A SCORE Analysis in the Tillaberi Region in Niger, Bertrand et al., Centre for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development:
There is a climate security nexus at work in the Tillaberi region meaning that climate-related and security-related dynamics are correlated and reinforce each other. Therefore, even though climate change could not be identified as a direct driver of recruitment, it operates as a catalyst, exacerbating conditions that heighten the susceptibility of individuals to join such groups. It is crucial to shift the perspective from viewing climate change as a distant specter to recognizing it as an active agent shaping pathways to vulnerability.
Ecological Transformation: Are we (still) ready ?, Elabe and Veolia
A survey was conducted in 26 countries on 5 continents, with over 29,500 people (between 1,000 and 2,000 per country). Overall, these countries represent nearly 60% of the world’s population, 67% of global GHG emissions, and 77% of global GDP. An online survey was conducted from October 17 to December 6, 2023. 89% of the world’s inhabitants are certain that climate change is underway. 56% of the world’s inhabitants are convinced that inaction will cost humanity more than ecological action.
Fueling Up: How to Make U.S. Clean Hydrogen Projects Happen. Overcoming the Obstacles Facing Developers and Utilities, Archuleta et al., Troutman Pepper
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) have helped drive interest from companies keen to develop “clean” and “green” hydrogen projects in the U.S. These companies also hope to benefit from more industrial demand for greener alternatives to fossil fuels. The authors examine the factors guiding clean hydrogen development activity in the U.S. Clean hydrogen is an alternative to fossil fuels and can help cut carbon dioxide emissions in hard-to-abate sectors such as chemical production and transportation. This is why the federal government has sought to support the growth of clean hydrogen with large policy announcements in recent years, including production tax credits (PTCs) made available by the IRA and billions of dollars in funding to support the development of regional hydrogen hubs and to stimulate demand.
Easthampton Climate Action Plan, Weston&Sampson, City of Easthampton, Massachusetts
Easthampton is already experiencing the effects of climate change. Extreme precipitation and flooding, extreme temperatures, drought, wildfires, and other extreme storms are of concern to the community. During the summer of 2023, Easthampton experienced some of the hottest days and severe flooding from extreme storms that impacted multiple facets of the community. Easthampton is expected to experience an increase in average annual temperature of 2.7°-5.4°F by 2030 and 6.3°-11.7°F by 2070. Twice the number of days per year with maximum temperatures above 90°F by 2030. An increase of up to 70 days per year above 90°F by 2070 compared to a baseline of 5 days per year. An increase of 2.7 inches in total annual precipitation by 2030, 3.6 inches by 2050, and 4.3 inches by 2070. Annual average precipitation refers to total precipitation (rainfall equivalent) depth over 365 days.
Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience, Dahl et al., Union of Concerned Scientists
The nearly 90 million people living in U.S. coastal communities depend on an array of critical infrastructure—from the schools that students attend to the power and wastewater treatment plants that provide electricity and clean water. However, research by the authors shows that between now and 2050, climate change–driven sea level rise will expose more than 1,600 critical infrastructure assets coastwide to disruptive flooding at least twice per year. Future flooding particularly threatens public and affordable housing. This burden is borne inequitably: more than half the infrastructure at risk by 2050 is in communities at a disadvantage based on historical and ongoing racism, discrimination, and pollution. The amount of infrastructure in jeopardy late this century will depend heavily on countries’ choices about global heat-trapping emissions. Policymakers and public and private decision-makers must take immediate, science-based steps to safeguard critical infrastructure and achieve true, long-term coastal resilience.
Certified Gaslighting: How Gas Certification Has Gained a Policy Foothold, Even as it Fails to Prove it Can Accurately Detect Emissions, Raynes et al., Oil Change International and Earthworks
Fossil fuel companies are under substantial pressure to show they are taking action to reduce methane emissions from their operations. Increasingly, they are turning to certifiers that use continuous emissions monitors at well sites to ostensibly confirm operations below a certain threshold of methane pollution during gas production. But no matter the label – “natural” gas, “responsibly sourced,” “differentiated,” “certified,” or “next-gen” – the truth remains the same: Fossil gas is a threat to people and the planet.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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Journals covered
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