Skeptical Science New Research for Week #29 2024

Posted on 18 July 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society:

To better account for spatial non-uniform trends in warming, a new GITD [global instrumental temperature dataset] was created that used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to combine the land surface air temperature (LSAT) anomalies of non-infilled HadCRUT5 with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of HadSST4. This GITD better accounts for non-uniform trends in warming in two ways. Firstly, the underlying warming trends in the model are allowed to vary spatially and by the time of year. Secondly, climatological differences between open-sea and sea ice regions are used to better account for changes in sea ice concentrations (SICs). These improvements increase the estimate of GMST change from the late 19th century (1850–1900) to 2023 by 0.006°C and 0.079°C, respectively. Although, for the latter improvement, tests suggest that there may be an overcorrection by a factor of two and estimates of SICs for the late 19th century are a significant source of unquantified uncertainty. In addition, this new GITD has other improvements compared to the HadCRUT5 Analysis dataset, including correcting for a small underestimation of LSAT warming between 1961 and 1990, taking advantage of temporal correlations of observations, taking advantage of correlations between land and open-sea observations, and better treatment of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Overall, the median estimate of GMST change from the late 19th century to 2023 is 1.548°C, with a 95% confidence interval of [1.449°C, 1.635°C].

Roofing Highways With Solar Panels Substantially Reduces Carbon Emissions and Traffic Losses, Jiang et al., Earth's Future

Roofing highways with solar panels offers a new opportunity for PV development, but its potential of global deployment and associated socio-economic impacts have not been investigated. Here, we combine solar PV output modeling with the global highway distribution and levelized cost of electricity to estimate the potential and economic feasibility of deploying highway PV systems worldwide. We also quantify its co-benefits of reducing CO2 equivalent emissions and traffic losses (road traffic deaths and socio-economic burdens). Our analysis reveals a potential for generating 17.58 PWh yr−1 of electricity, of which nearly 56% can be realized at a cost below US$100 MWh−1. Achieving the full highway PV potential could offset 28.78% (28.21%–29.1%) of the global total carbon emissions in 2018, prevent approximately 0.15 million road traffic deaths, and reduce US$0.43 ± 0.16 trillion socio-economic burdens per year. Highway PV projects could bring a net return of about US$14.42 ± 4.04 trillion over a 25-year lifetime. 

Asymmetric and Irreversible Response of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to CO2 Removal, Huan & Yan, Geophysical Research Letters:

Understanding the behaviors of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity under the CO2 removal scenario is important for future climate adaptation and policy making. Based on the idealized CO2 ramp-up (from 284.7 to 1,138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp-down experiments, our results suggest an asymmetric and irreversible response of TC potential intensity to CO2 reduction. Potential intensity shows an additional enhancement at the same CO2 level during the CO2 ramp-down relative to the ramp-up periods (though with regional differences), and does not completely return to the initial value even when CO2 recovers on multi-decadal to centennial timescale. The enhanced potential intensity is dominated by the increased thermodynamic disequilibrium, which is mainly attributed to the weakened surface winds arising from the El Niño-like warming pattern and inter-hemispheric ocean temperature contrast.

Cyber-echoes of climate crisis: Unraveling anthropogenic climate change narratives on social media, Elroy et al., Current Research in Environmental Sustainability [perspective]:

In this work, we collected 333,635 tweets in English about anthropogenic climate change. We used Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning methods to embed the semantic meaning of the tweets into vectors, cluster the tweets, and analyze the results. We clustered the tweets into four clusters that correspond to four narratives in the discussion. Analyzing the behavioral dynamics of each cluster revealed that the clusters focus on the discussion of whether climate change is caused by humans or not, scientific arguments, policy, and conspiracy. The research results can serve as input for media policy and awareness-raising measures on climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, and facilitating future communications related to climate change.

Voters do not punish their government for climate policies under favorable conditions, Henriks et al., Environmental Politics:

This article investigates the impact of climate policies on electoral support for governing parties in Sweden through mixed methods combining a sentiment analysis of news articles and regression discontinuities of voter support over time. The regression discontinuity models indicate that the effects of climate policies on government support are not robust and are spurious across different model specifications. To ensure that we can detect effects, we used a set of political events that could have affected government support, such as elections and the Covid-pandemic as robustness checks. Contrary to expectations from literature and analyzed news reporting, we cannot determine robust effects of introducing climate policies on governmental support in Sweden. This suggests that governments do not need to anticipate losing substantial support when implementing climate policies – at least in favorable conditions.

Confronting heat-related illnesses and deaths at mass gathering religious and sporting events, McCloskey et al., The Lancet Planetary Health:

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate change should become increasingly important in the planning of mass gatherings and should be viewed as an existential threat to all mass sporting, artistic, and religious events. As such, planners and organisers of these events need to start to bring together research, ideas, and technology that can reduce future risks of severe heat-related illnesses and deaths.

Actions speak louder than words: the case for responsible scientific activism in an era of planetary emergency, Wyatt et al., Royal Society Open Science:

To date, governments’ decisions (such as continuing with vast subsidies for fossil fuels) clearly show that powerful vested interests have been much more influential than the amassed scientific knowledge and advice. We argue that in the face of this inaction, scientists can have the maximum amount of influence by lending their support to social movements pressing for action, joining as active participants and considering civil disobedience. Scientists seeking to halt continued environmental destruction also need to work through our institutions. Too many scientific organizations, from national academies of science to learned societies and universities, have not taken practical action on climate; for example, many still partner with fossil fuel and other compromised interests. We therefore also outline a vision for how scientists can reform our scientific institutions to become powerful agents for change.

From this week's government and NGO section:

How the Oil Industry Has Sustained Market Dominance Through Policy Influence, InfluenceMap

The authors discuss the entrenched nature of the oil and gas industry's opposition to the alternatives to fossil fuels, revealing a decades-long playbook employed to hinder progress toward the transition. It builds on previous analysis of historical fossil fuel industry lobbying that highlighted the use of climate science denial tactics. It demonstrates that a range of other narratives and arguments are still being deployed by the sector to this day, despite contradicting the Science-Aligned Climate Policy analysis of the IPCC. The authors highlight the potentially seismic effects that are associated with this influencing campaign, which has enabled an expanded and sustained market for fossil fuel products at the expense of zero-carbon alternatives. The sale and use of these products have resulted in cumulative GHG emissions that now threaten to put global temperature rises on track for catastrophic climate impacts.

Clean Energy Isn't Driving Power Price Spikes, Brendan Pierpont, Energy Innovation Policy & Technology

Some observers have argued that clean energy is to blame for rising electric rates, but the data does not support this conjecture. The author walks through recent trends in electricity rates and unpacks the myriad factors that have contributed to rate increases in recent years, leading to several key takeaways including evidence that does not suggest that clean energy is driving electricity cost increases; wildfire costs and risks have significantly increased electricity rates in California; natural gas price volatility has been a major driver of higher electricity costs in some states; utilities have made substantial investments in aging, uneconomic coal plants, raising costs to customers; transmission and distribution costs are rising nearly twice as fast as inflation, driven by a focus on grid hardening, resilience, and advanced technology; and regulated utility profit margins and bias toward capital investments underly rising electricity rates.

136 articles in 67 journals by 757 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

The correlation between Arctic sea ice, cloud phase and radiation using A-Train satellites, Cesana et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-7899-2024

Observations of climate change, effects

Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability, Blackport & Fyfe, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8

Long-term changes in tropospheric temperature in India: Insights from radiosonde measurements, reanalysis data and CMIP6 model projections, Kumar & Kuttippurath, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107583

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

An algorithm to analyse long-term tendencies of pressure systems over Europe, Varga?Balogh et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8566

Improving global temperature datasets to better account for non-uniform warming, Calvert, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4791

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Dynamical downscaling CMIP6 models over New Zealand: added value of climatology and extremes, Gibson et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07337-5

Emergence of lake conditions that exceed natural temperature variability, Huang et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01491-5

High-resolution climate projection dataset over India using dynamical downscaling, Barik et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.266

Investigating the skills of HighResMIP in capturing historical and future mean precipitation shifts over Pakistan, Eman et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8558

Processes that Contribute to Future South Asian Monsoon Differences in E3SMv2 and CESM2, Meehl et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109056

Projected near-surface wind speed and wind energy over Central Asia using dynamical downscaling with bias-corrected global climate models, ZHA et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.007

Projection of future non-stationary intensity-duration-frequency curves using the pooled CMIP6 climate models, Mianabadi et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06779-8

Projections of the Adriatic wave conditions under climate changes, Moulin et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1409237

Shifts from surface density compensation to projected warming, freshening and stronger stratification in the subpolar North Atlantic, Marsh et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07336-6

The impacts of global warming on climate zones over China based on CMIP6 models, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8567

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A simple framework for likely climate projections applied to tropical width, Baldassare & Reichler Reichler, Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07335-7

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Characteristics of the temperature correlation network of climate models, Wang et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07329-5

Cloud Radiative Feedback to the Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Greatly Reduces Monsoon-Season Wet Bias Over the Tibetan Plateau in Climate Modeling, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109180

Correlated spatiotemporal downscaling of Euro-CORDEX climatic data for infrastructure resilience assessment, Chatzidaki et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8529

Improving CMIP6 Atmospheric River Precipitation Estimation by Cycle-Consistent Generative Adversarial Networks, Tian et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040698

Limited Benefits of Increased Spatial Resolution for Sea Ice in HighResMIP Simulations, Selivanova et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107969

Resolving the Turkana Jet—Impact of Model Resolution in Simulating Channel Flow and Inversions, Warner et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040299

Testing the Sensitivity of a WRF-Based Great Lakes Regional Climate Model to Cumulus Parameterization and Spectral Nudging, Hutson et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0234.1

The Ensemble Consistency Test: From CESM to MPAS and Beyond, Price-Broncucia et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-115

What Drives the Spread and Bias in the Surface Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in CMIP6 Models?, Dai et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0622.1

Cryosphere & climate change

Atmosphere circulation patterns synchronize pan-Arctic glacier melt and permafrost thaw, Sasgen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01548-8

Degradation and local growth of “Xing'an-Baikal” permafrost responding to climate warming and the consequences, Zhang et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104865

Sea Ice Interannual Variability and Sensitivity to Fall Oceanic Conditions and Winter Air Temperature in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, Galbraith et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc020784

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Large-ensemble simulations of the North American and Greenland ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum with a coupled atmospheric general circulation–ice sheet model, Sherriff-Tadano et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-1489-2024

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Among-species variation in six decades of changing migration timings explained through ecology, life-history and local migratory abundance, Dale et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17400

Assessing uncertainty in bioclimatic modelling: a comparison of two high-resolution climate datasets in northern Patagonia, Fierke et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access 10.1007/s10113-024-02278-5

Declining glacier cover drives changes in aquatic macroinvertebrate biodiversity in the Cordillera Blanca, Perú, Palacios?Robles et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17355

Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate-induced latitudinal shifts, Gan et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11710

Future Climate Change Shifts the Ranges of Major Encroaching Woody Plant Species in the Southern Great Plains, USA, Yang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004520

Future climate warming threatens coral reef function on World Heritage reefs, Quigley & Baird, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17407

High coral heat tolerance at local-scale thermal refugia, Lachs et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000453

Identifying the impact of climate extremes on radial growth in young tropical trees: A comparison of inventory and tree-ring based estimates, Dietrich et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126237

Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change, Parker et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17408

Metabolic dysfunctions in pearl oysters following recurrent marine heatwaves, He et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106641

Phenological responses of alpine snowbed communities to advancing snowmelt, Crepaz et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11714

Predicting climate change impacts on the distribution of endemic fish Cyprinion muscatense in the Arabian Peninsula, Gholamhosseini et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11720

Principal role of fungi in soil carbon stabilization during early pedogenesis in the high Arctic, Trejos-Espeleta et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2402689121

Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches, Astigarraga et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2314899121

Shifts in elevational distributions of montane birds in an arid ecosystem, Zillig et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.06780

Tail-dependence of masting synchrony results in continent-wide seed scarcity, Szymkowiak et al., Ecology Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/ele.14474

Vegetation resistance to increasing aridity when crossing thresholds depends on local environmental conditions in global drylands, Abel et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01546-w

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Article I. Analysis of methane emission characteristics and environmental response in natural wetlands, Li et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120696

Comparisons of Greenhouse Gas Observation Satellite Performances Over Seoul Using a Portable Ground-Based Spectrometer, Park et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109334

Dominant role of the non-forest woody vegetation in the post 2015/16 El Niño tropical carbon recovery, Fan et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17423

Forest carbon stocks increase with higher dominance of ectomycorrhizal trees in high latitude forests, Yan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50423-9

Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends, Hall et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004399

Global patterns of soil organic carbon dynamics in the 20–100 cm soil profile for different ecosystems: A global meta-analysis, Wang et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3390506/v1

Impact of three decades of warming, increased nutrient availability, and increased cloudiness on the fluxes of greenhouse gases and biogenic volatile organic compounds in a subarctic tundra heath, Ndah et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17416

Machine learning for gap-filling in greenhouse gas emissions databases, Cullen et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13507

Multivariate Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios for CMIP6 (CanDCS-M6), Sobie et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.257

Plant diversity decreases greenhouse gas emissions by increasing soil and plant carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, Dang et al., Ecology Letters 10.1111/ele.14469

Snow redistribution decreases winter soil carbon loss in the Arctic dry heath tundra, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110158

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Temperature responses of ecosystem respiration, Niu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43017-024-00569-3

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Asymmetric and Irreversible Response of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to CO2 Removal, Huan & Yan, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109269

Evaluating the near- and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives, Ganti et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01527-z

Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, OGAWA et al., TRANSACTIONS OF THE JAPAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS Series B Open Access pdf 10.1299/kikaib.70.3204

Unleashing hidden carbon sequestration potential: A case study of the Greater Bay Area, China, Luo et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102049

Decarbonization

Circular battery production in the EU: Insights from integrating life cycle assessment into system dynamics modeling on recycled content and environmental impacts, Ginster et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13527

Climate, Technology and Value: Insights from the First Decade with Mass-Consumption of Electric Vehicles, Andreassen & Lind Lind Lind Lind, Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-024-00872-z

Harnessing the sun for agriculture: Pathways to the successful expansion of Agrivoltaic systems in East Africa, Cinderby et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103657

Increases of Offshore Wind Potential in a Warming World, Shen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109494

Potential for large-scale deployment of offshore wind-to-hydrogen systems in the United States, Brunik et al., Journal of Physics: Conference Series Open Access 10.1088/1742-6596/2767/6/062017

Roofing Highways With Solar Panels Substantially Reduces Carbon Emissions and Traffic Losses, Jiang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003975

Sustainability assessment of Sweden’s nuclear power: implications of the new expansion plans, Krayem & Thorin, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-024-05219-8

Unlocking the potential of biogas systems for energy production and climate solutions in rural communities, Luo et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50091-9

Geoengineering climate

Asymmetric and Irreversible Response of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to CO2 Removal, Huan & Yan, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109269

Aerosols

How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update, Hofer et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-7911-2024

Climate change communications & cognition

A pedagogy for the end of the world: teaching environmental health and justice in a sacrifice zone, Alkon, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s13412-024-00924-2

Analyzing the effects of climate risk on discouraged borrowers: Deciphering the contradictory forces, Anastasiou et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.15071

Arctic disinformation on X (Twitter) – an empirical investigation, Landriault et al., Polar Geography 10.1080/1088937x.2024.2372270

Cyber-echoes of climate crisis: Unraveling anthropogenic climate change narratives on social media, Elroy et al., Current Research in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.crsust.2024.100256

Do People Respond to the Climate Impact of their Behavior? The Effect of Carbon Footprint Information on Grocery Purchases, Fosgaard et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-024-00873-y

Effect of Lay Theory of Climate Change on Coping Strategies: Stability and Variability of Information-induced Results, Sun et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102380

Framing the Wind: Media Coverage of Offshore Wind in the Northeastern United States, Diamond et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2024.2374927

Instagram as an Arena of Climate Change Communication and Mobilization: A Discourse Network Analysis of COP26, Stoddart et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2377719

Not Zero by 2050: BP and Quid Pro Quo Sustainability, Mattson, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2376689

Science-Consistent Climate Health Beliefs As Predictors of Climate Behaviors and Support for Inflation Reduction Act Provisions and a Carbon Emissions Tax, Patterson et al., Journal of Health Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/10810730.2024.2360617

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Building climate-resilient value chains in arid and semi-arid regions: a VC-ARID approach for rangeland adaptation in Kenya, Lutta et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-024-05229-6

Climate impacts of alternative beef production systems depend on the functional unit used: Weight or monetary value, , Public Finance Administration Open Access 10.4135/9781452224961.n4

Climate risks and adaptation strategies: the perspectives of farmers in coastal Ghana, Ankrah, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-024-00970-w

Climate-resilient aquatic food systems require transformative change to address gender and intersectional inequalities, Adam et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000309

Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N₂O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Probabilistic analysis of drought impact on wheat yield and climate change implications, Wang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100708

Quantifying the impact of climate change and extreme heat on rice in the United States, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110145

Unravelling the complexities of wetland agriculture, climate change, and coping mechanisms: an integrative review using economics and satellite approaches, Islam, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-024-05152-w

Wheat breeding strategies for increased climate resilience, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02070-7

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A multi-centennial drought reconstruction from tree-rings reveals a growing threat to Christmas Island’s water resources, Sharifazari et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126238

Assessing framework of rainfall-induced landslide hazard considering spatiotemporal asymmetry in extreme precipitation indices under climate change, Yan & Gong, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05106-2

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature in the Arabian Sea on the variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Pakistan Region, Adeel et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101482

Modeling nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban areas of India under changing climate, Vinod & Mahesha, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102065

Relations between selected elements of climate and an increase in soil moisture deficit in the warm half-year in East-Central Europe between 1971 and 2020, Bartoszek & Matuszko, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8555

Risks and coping strategies in the floodplain economic belt amid drought–flood challenges and climate change, Dong et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1395118

Understanding non-stationarity patterns in basin-scale hydroclimatic extremes, Singh et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8557

Climate change economics

Decoupling and decomposition analysis of industrial carbon emissions and economic growth in China from a dynamic perspective, Yuan et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05217-w

Land matters: how Indigenous land restitution can inform loss and damage policy and chart a path toward an otherwise climate justice, Correia, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2024.2378027

Political and legal implications of defining ‘particularly vulnerable’ for the loss and damage fund, Jackson & Sakshi Jackson, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2024.2361121

Projecting progress in sustainable development goals vis-à-vis climate action in climate-economy models, Nikas, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000449

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Circular strategies for building sector decarbonization in China: A scenario analysis, Mastrucci et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13523

Community solar reaches adopters underserved by rooftop solar, O’Shaughnessy et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01575-x

Deconstructing corporate net-zero and climate neutrality targets in the German chemical industry, Riedel, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2376741

Green industrial policy can strengthen carbon pricing but not replace it, Jakob & Overland, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103669

Land degradation neutrality and carbon neutrality: approaches, synergies, and challenges, Gunawardena et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1398864

Low-carbon lifestyle index and its socioeconomic determinants among households in Saudi Arabia, Almulhim et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102057

Out of Gas, In with Justice: Findings from a gas-to-induction pilot in low-income housing in NYC, Daouda et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103662

Substantial differences in source contributions to carbon emissions and health damage necessitate balanced synergistic control plans in China, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50327-8

The European Union Emissions Trading System might yield large co-benefits from pollution reduction, Basaglia et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2319908121

The greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential of ICT: A critical review of telecommunication companies’ GHG enablement assessments, Bieser et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13524

Voters do not punish their government for climate policies under favorable conditions, Henriks et al., Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2024.2373606

What Drives Carbon Emissions in German Manufacturing: Scale, Technique or Composition?, Piatkova et al., MATEC Web of Conferences Open Access pdf 10.1051/matecconf/202337601005

Will the miniaturization of household size promote household carbon emissions in China? Analysis based on CFPS data, Shao et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1382083

Wish fulfilment or wishful thinking? – Assessing the outcomes of China's pilot carbon emissions trading scheme on green economy efficiency in China's cities, Witter, Nederlands Tijdschrift voor Tandheelkunde Open Access 10.5177/ntvt.2018.11.17224

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

An integrated approach to the spatial distribution of the coastal infrastructure vulnerability by using coastal vulnerability index and hot spot analysis: a case study of Kusadasi-Selcuk, Kuleli & Bayazit, Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06749-0

Assessing spatial thermal comfort and adaptation measures for the Antalya basin under climate change scenarios, Isinkaralar et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-024-03781-8

Critical environmental factors affecting mountain geohazards in a warming climate in Southwest China, Xu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.006

Defining and conceptualizing equity and justice in climate adaptation, Walker et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102885

Public support for flood adaptation policy in Tokyo lowland areas, Cao et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2371405

Unintended consequences of nature-based solutions: Social equity and flood buyouts, Walker et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000328

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change and health in the Sahel: a systematic review, , Open Access 10.1098/rsos.231602/v1/review1

Confronting heat-related illnesses and deaths at mass gathering religious and sporting events, McCloskey et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00161-x

Future change of humid heat extremes and population exposure in Turkey, Donmez et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8559

Projected Thermally Driven Elderly Mortality for Beijing Under Greenhouse Gas and Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Scenarios, Wang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004422

Soil Moisture-Temperature Coupling Increases Population Exposure to Future Heatwaves, Zhou et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004697

Turning up the heat on public health: Adapting to extreme temperatures in Latin America and the Caribbean, Yglesias-González et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000446

Climate change & geopolitics

Strategies for promoting climate change transparency and inclusive growth through south-south climate change cooperation, Chirambo, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05198-w

Other

Epistemic silences, subversive politics: post-disaster economic assessments as technologies of persistent coloniality and route to an emancipatory climate justice agenda in the Caribbean, Perry, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2370926

Gender diversity and climate disclosure: a tcfd perspective, Dias et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-024-05203-2

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Actions speak louder than words: the case for responsible scientific activism in an era of planetary emergency, Wyatt et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.240411

Aquatic deoxygenation as a planetary boundary and key regulator of Earth system stability, Rose et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution 10.1038/s41559-024-02448-y

Tackling crises in cryospheric research, Mallett et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000439

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Meeting Summer Peaks: The Need for Virtual Power Plants, Brehm et al., RMI

The possibility of extreme and widespread heat waves puts large swaths of the country at elevated risk for insufficient electricity generation to meet demand this summer. This risk is likely to grow if utility projections of 38 GW of new peak load through 2028 materialize. Virtual power plants (VPPs), aggregations of distributed energy resources that provide utility-scale and utility-grade grid services, can support utilities to affordably and reliably meet summer grid needs. VPPs are rapidly deployable, affordably leverage existing assets, are configurable and adaptable, and enhance community resilience. Already deployed VPPs will be dispatched to meet the peak this summer. New VPPs can be deployed in as little as 6-12 months — much faster than traditional transmission and generation — to manage peak as soon as 2025.

Climate Change Conflict and Freedom of Religion and Belief, Nelson et al., Search for Common Ground

Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is a risk multiplier for conflict and a threat to Freedom of Religion and Belief (FoRB). While the connection between climate change and FoRB is not fully recognized, it is crucial to understand how these factors intersect and drive violence, and that solutions can address both climate and FoRB challenges simultaneously. The authors argue there is an urgent need for policymakers to integrate thinking on climate change and FoRB in strategy development. By doing so, we can address the root causes of conflict and foster resilience in vulnerable communities.

How the Oil Industry Has Sustained Market Dominance Through Policy Influence, InfluenceMap

The authors discuss the entrenched nature of the oil and gas industry's opposition to the alternatives to fossil fuels, revealing a decades-long playbook employed to hinder progress toward the transition. It builds on previous analysis of historical fossil fuel industry lobbying that highlighted the use of climate science denial tactics. It demonstrates that a range of other narratives and arguments are still being deployed by the sector to this day, despite contradicting the Science-Aligned Climate Policy analysis of the IPCC. The authors highlight the potentially seismic effects that are associated with this influencing campaign, which has enabled an expanded and sustained market for fossil fuel products at the expense of zero-carbon alternatives. The sale and use of these products have resulted in cumulative GHG emissions that now threaten to put global temperature rises on track for catastrophic climate impacts.

World Climate and Security Report 2024, Conger et al., The International Military Council on Climate and Security

The authors analyze the urgency of climate change for militaries and explore how military research and innovation might enable both emissions reduction and greater resilience of infrastructure and operations to climate effects while improving the self-sufficiency of military units and facilities. There is a need for militaries to adopt a comprehensive approach to the climate challenge. This should include research and development (R&D) but also a wider range of policy and procurement changes. The climate crisis is not a challenge that can be solved by a single tool such as military R&D, but rather a broader set of partnerships, policies, and investments that make up a more complete sustainability toolbox.

When Rain Turns to Dust. Understanding and Responding to the Combined Impact of Armed Conflicts and the Climate and Environment Crisis on People’s Lives, Catherine-Lune Grayson, International Committee of the Red Cross

Based on research conducted in the interior of the Central African Republic (CAR), southern Iraq, and northern Mali, and drawing on the expertise of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the scientific literature on the topic, the author explores how people experience the combined consequences of armed conflict and climate risks, and how they cope and adapt. It also discusses how the ICRC, and the humanitarian sector in general, must adjust and adapt to address these risks, and calls for strengthening climate action in conflict settings.

Clean Energy Isn't Driving Power Price Spikes, Brendan Pierpont, Energy Innovation Policy & Technology

Some observers have argued that clean energy is to blame for rising electric rates, but the data does not support this conjecture. The author walks through recent trends in electricity rates and unpacks the myriad factors that have contributed to rate increases in recent years, leading to several key takeaways including evidence that does not suggest that clean energy is driving electricity cost increases; wildfire costs and risks have significantly increased electricity rates in California; natural gas price volatility has been a major driver of higher electricity costs in some states; utilities have made substantial investments in aging, uneconomic coal plants, raising costs to customers; transmission and distribution costs are rising nearly twice as fast as inflation, driven by a focus on grid hardening, resilience, and advanced technology; and regulated utility profit margins and bias toward capital investments underly rising electricity rates.

ESS Price Forecasting Report, Clean Energy Associates

The authors offer a comprehensive four-year cost pricing outlook for lithium iron phosphate and nickel manganese cobalt battery containerized systems.

Energy Storage Systems Supply, Technology, and Policy Report, Clean Energy Associates

The authors focus on emerging battery technologies, including lithium manganese iron phosphate cathodes, sodium-ion batteries, and solid-state batteries.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2024, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of about 5 to 1 (70% versus 13%). Two-thirds of Americans (66%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States. Americans’ most important reasons to reduce global warming are to provide a better life for our children and grandchildren (23%), to prevent the destruction of most life on the planet (18%), or to help prevent extreme weather events (10%).

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Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light"  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

• Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.

• Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

• The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

• Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
• Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

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