Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #4 2024
Posted on 25 January 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
More Frequent Abrupt Marine Environmental Changes Expected, Heinze et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
We quantify an elevated occurrence of abrupt changes in ocean environmental conditions under human-induced climate forcing using Earth system model output through a novel analysis method that compares the temporal evolution of the forcings applied with the development of local ocean state changes for temperature, oxygen concentration, and carbonate ion concentration. Through a multi-centennial Earth system model experiment, we show that such an increase is not fully reversible after excess greenhouse gas emissions go back to zero. The increase in occurrence of regional abrupt changes in marine environmental conditions has not yet been accounted for adequately in climate impact analyses that usually associate ecosystem shifts large-scale variability or extreme events. Estimates for remaining greenhouse gas emission targets need thus to be more conservative.
Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change, López-Blanco et al., Nature Climate Change:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine hampers the ability to adequately describe conditions across the Arctic, thus biasing the view on Arctic change. Here we benchmark the pan-Arctic representativeness of the largest high-latitude research station network, INTERACT, with or without Russian stations. Excluding Russian stations lowers representativeness markedly, with some biases being of the same magnitude as the expected shifts caused by climate change by the end of the century.
Spatially heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology induced by climate change threaten the integrity of the avian migration network, Wei et al., Global Change Biology:
Migratory birds use multiple habitats with seasonal food resources along migration flyways. Spatially heterogeneous climate change could cause the phenology of food availability along the migration flyway to become desynchronized. Such heterogeneous shifts in food phenology could pose a challenge to migratory birds by reducing their opportunity for food availability along the migration path and consequently influencing their survival and reproduction. We develop a novel graph-based approach to quantify this problem and deploy it to evaluate the condition of the heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology for 16 migratory herbivorous waterfowl species in Asia. We show that climate change-induced heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology could cause a 12% loss of migration network integrity on average across all study species. Species that winter at relatively lower latitudes are subjected to a higher loss of integrity in their migration network.
Climatic risks to adaptive capacity, Serdeczny et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change:
In this review, we look at the literature on human impacts of climate change through the lens of adaptive capacity. Building on evidence of impacts on financial resources as presented in the Working Group 2 (WG2) report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), we here present the methodology behind this review and complement it with an analysis of climatic risks to human resources. Based on our review, we argue that climate change itself adds to adaptation constraints and limits. We show that for more realistic assessments of sectoral climate risks, assumed levels of future adaptive capacity should — and can — be usefully constrained in assessments that rely on expert judgment, and propose avenues for doing so.
Advances and shortfalls in applying best practices to global tree-growing efforts, Schubert et al., Conservation Letters:
We reviewed websites of 99 intermediary organizations that promote and fund tree-growing projects to determine how well they report following best practices. Nearly half the organizations stated tree or area planting targets, but only 25% had measurable, time-bound objectives. Most organizations discussed the benefits local communities would receive from trees, but only 38% reported measures of these outcomes. Nonprofit organizations with greater prior experience converged more closely on best practices, and their level of scientific expertise was positively associated with clearer project selection standards. Although many tree-growing organizations acknowledge the importance of clear goals, local community involvement, and monitoring, our results raise questions regarding whether long-term benefits are being achieved and emphasize the need for stronger public accountability standards.
SubjectToClimate Climate Education Essentials Courses, SubjectToClimate:
This is a series of free, online courses developed by SubjectToClimate to help teachers teach about climate change. Level 0 is about climate change basics. It includes five modules, including the history of climate science, climate science basics, and climate solutions. Level 0 takes approximately 4 hours to complete. Level 1 is about teaching climate change. It includes nine modules, including reasons for teaching about climate change, how to incorporate climate change into the curriculum, and ways to address misinformation. Level 1 takes approximately 6 hours to complete. Level 2 guides teachers in developing K-12 inquiry-based climate lesson plans for all subjects. It includes ten modules, including how to effectively choose resources, how to align the lesson plan to standards, and how to create accompanying materials. Level 2 takes approximately 4 hours to complete.
148 articles in 58 journals by 1125 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Persistent warm-eddy transport to Antarctic ice shelves driven by enhanced summer westerlies, Gao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-45010-x
Ross Gyre variability modulates oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental shelf, Prend et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01207-y
Warmer Antarctic summers in recent decades linked to earlier stratospheric final warming occurrences, Choi et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01221-0
Observations of climate change, effects
A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe. Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change, Ludwig et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/nhess-2022-225
Diurnal to Decadal Variability in Land Surface and Air Temperature Gradient from 2002 to 2022 over the Contiguous United States, Yu & Wang, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0143.1
Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century, King et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adj4289
Quasquicentennial shrinkage of glacier as a testimony of regional climate change: an example of Janapa Garang glacier (JPG), Baspa basin, Western Himalayas, India, Dongare et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03677-z
The 2022 Record-Breaking Heat Event over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River: The Role of Anthropogenic Forcing and Atmospheric Circulation, Wang et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0152.1
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events in a Changing Climate, L’Heureux et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0406.1
Evaluating metrics for quantifying the climate-change effects of land-based carbon fluxes, Brandão et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11367-023-02251-0
Long-Term Alpine Precipitation Reconstruction (LAPrec): A Gridded Monthly Data Set Dating Back to 1871, Isotta et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039637
The historical Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) curated and augmented Level 1 dataset, Vandecrux et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-147
The increasing importance of satellite observations to assess the ocean carbon sink and ocean acidification, Shutler et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104682
Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change, López-Blanco et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01903-1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Altered Weddell Sea warm- and dense-water pathways in response to 21st-century climate change, Nissen et al., Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-20-85-2024
An 8-model ensemble of CMIP6-derived ocean surface wave climate, Meucci et al., Scientific Data Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-024-02932-x
Climate Response to Vegetation Removal on Different Continents, Guo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039531
Effects of CO $$&2$$ vegetation forcing on precipitation and heat extremes in China, Chen et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07046-5
Inferring the impacts of climate extreme in the Kabul River Basin, Khatiwada et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02167-3
Infrared Radiative Effects of Increasing CO2 and CH4 on the Atmosphere in Antarctica Compared to the Arctic, Notholt et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105600
More Frequent Abrupt Marine Environmental Changes Expected, Heinze et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106192
Projected Emergence Seasons of Year-Maximum Near-Surface Wind Speed, Yu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107543
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?, Aalbers et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-954
The offshore wind speed changes in China: an insight into CMIP6 model simulation and future projections, Deng et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-07066-1
Uncertainty in the evolution of northwestern North Atlantic circulation leads to diverging biogeochemical projections, Rutherford et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-301-2024
Weakened Orographic Influence on Cool-Season Precipitation in Simulations of Future Warming Over the Western US, Koszuta et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107298
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan, Ali et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8346
A Standardized Benchmarking Framework to Assess Downscaled Precipitation Simulations, Isphording et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0317.1
Constraining the Pattern and Magnitude of Projected Extreme Precipitation Change in a Multimodel Ensemble, Kotz et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0492.1
Earth system models must include permafrost carbon processes, Schädel et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01909-9
Evaluating Cloud Feedback Components in Observations and Their Representation in Climate Models, Chao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039427
Interhemispheric Temperature Gradient and Equatorial Pacific SSTs Drive Sahel Monsoon Uncertainties under Global Warming, Guilbert et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0162.1
Predicting climate change using an autoregressive long short-term memory model, Chin & Lloyd, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1301343
Role of atmospheric resonance and land–atmosphere feedbacks as a precursor to the June 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Dome event, Li et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2315330121
Technical note: Emulation of a large-eddy simulator for stratocumulus clouds in a general circulation model, Nordling et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-869-2024
Tropical Cyclogenesis Bias over the Central North Pacific in CMIP6 Simulations, Peng et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0224.1
Why we need lower-performance climate models, O’Loughlin, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03661-7
Cryosphere & climate change
Brief communication: Nonlinear sensitivity of glacier-mass balance attested by temperature-index models, Vincent & Thibert, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-210
Change in the potential snowfall phenology: past, present, and future in the Chinese Tianshan mountainous region, Central Asia, Li et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-244
Brief communication: Nonlinear sensitivity of glacier-mass balance attested by temperature-index models, Vincent & Thibert, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2022-210
Heterogeneous Basal Thermal Conditions Underpinning the Adélie-George V Coast, East Antarctica, Dawson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105450
Investigating Multidecadal Trends in Ice Cover and Subsurface Temperatures in the Laurentian Great Lakes Using a Coupled Hydrodynamic–Ice Model, Cannon et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0092.1
Local Controls on Near-Surface Glacier Cooling Under Warm Atmospheric Conditions, Shaw et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd040214
Permafrost Degradation Risk Evaluation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change Based on Machine Learning Models, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039611
Signature of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling on recent record-breaking Antarctic sea ice anomalies, Cordero et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2023-59
Three Centuries of Snowpack Decline at an Alpine Pass Revealed by Cosmogenic Paleothermometry and Luminescence Photochronometry, Guralnik et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107385
What recent global atmospheric reanalyses and regional climate models can represent observed snow accumulation on Antarctica?, Ning et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107260
Sea level & climate change
A multi-risk approach for projecting climate change-associated coastal flood, applied to India, Jennath & Paul, Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06420-8
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Ocean Oxygen, Preformed Nutrients, and the Cause of the Lower Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the Atmosphere of the Last Glacial Maximum, Sigman & Hain, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023pa004775
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A high-resolution synthesis dataset for multistressor analyses along the U.S. West Coast, Kennedy et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-205
A Perspective on Probing Coral Resilience to Climate and Environmental Changes Using Stable Isotopes of Bio-Utilized Metal Elements, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007656
Anthropogenic Influences Alter the Response and Seasonality of Evapotranspiration: A Case Study Over Two High Mountain Asia Basins, Maina & Kumar, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107182
Arctic Heatwaves Could Significantly Influence the Isoprene Emissions From Shrubs, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107599
Assessing acute thermal assays as a rapid screening tool for coral restoration, Klepac et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-51944-5
Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves, Ding et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17136
Avian responses to climate extremes: insights into abundance curves and species sensitivity using the UK Breeding Bird Survey, Tirozzi et al., Oecologia Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-023-05504-9
Climate and human stressors on global penguin hotspots: Current assessments for future conservation, Gimeno et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17143
Climate change is associated with asynchrony in arrival between two sympatric cuckoos and both host arrival and prey emergence, Mikula et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.231691
Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region, McPartland, International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-023-02616-y
Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally, Smith et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2309881120
Global dominance of lianas over trees is driven by forest disturbance, climate and topography, Ngute et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17140
Impacts of global warming on phytoplankton–zooplankton dynamics: a modelling study, Panja et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04430-3
Interactions between temperature and nutrients determine the population dynamics of primary producers, Bieg & Vasseur Vasseur David Vasseur David Vasseur, Open Access pdf 10.1101/2023.08.22.554290
Negative interaction effect of heat and drought stress at the warm end of species distribution, Schepers et al., Oecologia Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-023-05497-5
Simulated Tree-Grass Competition in Drylands Is Modulated by CO2 Fertilization, Verbruggen et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef004096
Spatially heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology induced by climate change threaten the integrity of the avian migration network, Wei et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17148
The ecological suitability area of Cirsium lineare (Thunb.) Sch.-Bip. under future climate change in China based on MaxEnt modeling, Fang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10848
Warming causes contrasting spider behavioural responses by changing their prey size spectra, Hu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01918-8
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A process-based model for quantifying the effects of canal blocking on water table and CO2 emissions in restored tropical peatlands, Urzainki et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-218
A Synthesis of Global Coastal Ocean Greenhouse Gas Fluxes, Resplandy et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gb007803
Carbon sequestration in the subsoil and the time required to stabilize carbon for climate change mitigation, Sierra et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17153
Drought may exacerbate dryland soil inorganic carbon loss under warming climate conditions, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44895-y
Ecosystem carbon fluxes are tree size-dependent in an Amazonian old-growth forest, Kunert & Aparecido, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109895
Greenhouse gas emissions and their trends over the last three decades across Africa, Mostefaoui et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-186
Increased methane emission associated with anthropogenic activities in a highly urbanized tropical reservoir, da Costa et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05437-z
Predicting Methane Formation Rates of Freshwater Sediments in Different Biogeographic Regions, Moras et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007463
Radiocarbon analysis reveals underestimation of soil organic carbon persistence in new-generation soil models, Brunmayr et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.170224576.64959529/v1
Salinity causes widespread restriction of methane emissions from small inland waters, Soued et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44715-3
Selective Sorting and Degradation of Permafrost Organic Matter in the Nearshore Zone of Herschel Island (Yukon, Canada), Jong et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007479
Sinking fate and carbon export of zooplankton fecal pellets: insights from time-series sediment trap observation in the northern South China Sea, Wang et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-112
Sinking fate and carbon export of zooplankton fecal pellets: insights from time-series sediment trap observations in the northern South China Sea, Wang et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-112
Slow closure of Earth’s carbon cycle, Rothman, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2310998121
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020, Rosan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0
The high-resolution Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA) for 2019–2021, Teoh et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-725-2024
The Largely Ignored but Important Role of Non-Rooted, Submersed Vegetation and Small Waterbodies on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Hassett & Morin, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007902
The strengthened impact of water availability at interannual and decadal time scales on vegetation GPP, Liang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17138
Vegetation restoration improved aggregation stability and aggregated-associated carbon preservation in the karst areas of Guizhou Province, southwest China, Yang et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.16699
Wildfire-induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America, Kim et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17151
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Advances and shortfalls in applying best practices to global tree-growing efforts, Schubert et al., Conservation Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/conl.13002
Characteristics and monitoring plan in the atmosphere of CO2 leakage from carbon capture and storage projects, Fan et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04315-5
Decarbonization
A hybrid photocatalytic system enables direct glucose utilization for methanogenesis, Ma et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2317058121
A review of solar still technology: solution for water scarcity, Chorghe et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05428-0
All-perovskite-based unassisted photoelectrochemical water splitting system for efficient, stable and scalable solar hydrogen production, Hansora et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01438-x
Comprehensive review of biomass utilization and gasification for sustainable energy production, Kumar & Vyas , Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-04127-7
Continuous ammonia synthesis from water and nitrogen via contact electrification, Li et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2318408121
Highly selective photoelectrochemical CO2 reduction by crystal phase-modulated nanocrystals without parasitic absorption, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2316724121
Recent advances in novel materials for photocatalytic carbon dioxide reduction, Lu et al., Carbon Neutralization Open Access pdf 10.1002/cnl2.107
Aerosols
Trends in Seasonal Mean Speciated Aerosol Composition in Remote Areas of the United States From 2000 Through 2021, Hand et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd039902
Climate change communications & cognition
Examining the effects of gasoline prices on public support for climate policies, Hernandez Carballo & Sisco, Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01449-2
Extinction of experience due to climate change, Soga & Gaston, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01920-0
The “Think-and-do Tank” Model: Action-oriented Climate Communication Research, Maibach et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2304571
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Aggravation of global maize yield loss risk under various hot and dry scenarios using multiple types of prediction approaches, Yin et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8371
Bayesian calibration of the ICBM/3 soil organic carbon model constrained by data from long-term experiments and uncertainties of C inputs, Menichetti et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2304749
Can traditional management practices help mountain livestock farms in the Spanish Pyrenees cope with climate change?, Muñoz-Ulecia et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02170-8
Cover crop studies: The need for more reliable data, Chaplot & Smith, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17129
Economic benefits of climate-smart agricultural practices: empirical investigations and policy implications, Sang et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-024-10104-w
Effects of changes in climatic means, variability, and agro-technologies on future wheat and maize yields at 10 sites across the globe, Bracho-Mujica et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109887
Exploring the energy-climate-agriculture (ECA) nexus: a roadmap toward agricultural sustainability in Asian countries, Chandio et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04418-z
Exploring the vulnerability of the coastal wetlands of India to the changing climate and their adaptation strategies, Debnath et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-024-02620-w
Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change, Nelson et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17142
Greenhouse gas emissions from US irrigation pumping and implications for climate-smart irrigation policy, Driscoll et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-44920-0
Revitalizing indigenous practices employed by farmers to reduce agriculture’s vulnerability to climate change: a systematic review, Legide et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-024-00888-3
The impact of climate change on wheat in Turkey, Demirdogen et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access 10.1007/s10113-023-02172-6
The stomatal traits that conserve water without compromising grapevine carbon gain depend on climate change severity and wine-growing region, Albasha & Bartlett Bartlett, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109892
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Anthropogenic Influences Alter the Response and Seasonality of Evapotranspiration: A Case Study Over Two High Mountain Asia Basins, Maina & Kumar, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107182
Climatic effects of the Williston Reservoir on Tsay Keh Dene Nation Territory of northern British Columbia, Canada, Onwukwe et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03683-9
Evaporation Loss From Small Agricultural Reservoirs in a Warming Climate: An Overlooked Component of Water Accounting, Aminzadeh et al., Earth's Future 10.1029/2023ef004050
Hydrologic Extremes in a Changing Climate: a Review of Extremes in East Africa, Taye & Dyer, Current Climate Change Reports Open Access pdf 10.1007/s40641-024-00193-9
Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on Future Unprecedented Droughts in California: Insights From Multiple Indices and Multi-Model Projections, Zhou et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003856
Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century, King et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adj428
Response of runoff and its components to climate change in the Manas River of the Tian Shan Mountains, YANG & BAI, Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.005
Updating probable maximum precipitation for Hong Kong under intensifying extreme precipitation events, Lan et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03663-5
Weakened Increase in Global Near-Surface Water Vapor Pressure During the Last 20 Years, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl107909
Climate change economics
Analysing the response of CO2 emissions to business cycle in a developing economy: evidence for South Africa post-apartheid era, Espoir et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1321335
Climbing the green ladder in Sub-Saharan Africa: dynamics of financial development, green energy, and load capacity factor, Annor et al., Environment Systems and Decisions 10.1007/s10669-023-09959-2
What drives more for macroeconomic instability-carbon inequality or income inequality? Panel evidence from emerging economies, Sahu & Mahalik, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04455-8
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Analysing the nexus between clean energy expansion, natural resource extraction, and load capacity factor in China: a step towards achieving COP27 targets, Usman et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-04399-z
Assessment on the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon reductions in low-carbon city pilot policy: based on effectiveness and efficiency perspectives, Fan et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04421-4
Climate-related prudential regulation: emerging perspectives and policy implications, Hidalgo-Oñate et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101410
Combinatorial auctions for renewable energy — potentials and challenges, Ehrhart et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.113988
Creating the Dutch One Health Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Dellar et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02169-1
Critical review of the effects and role of the Climate Change Response Act of 2023 in Taiwan’s net-zero ambition of 2050, Gao et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2306319
Paris targets within reach by aligning, broadening and strengthening net-zero pledges, Dafnomilis et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01184-8
Public acceptability of policy instruments for reducing fossil fuel consumption in East Africa, Harring et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2302319
The influence of energy transition, and natural resources on carbon emissions in China: an augmented ARDL application, Amin et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-04398-0
When energy doesn't add up: use of an energyshed framework in assessing progress towards renewable energy transitions, Garrett et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad0fef
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climatic risks to adaptive capacity, Serdeczny et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10103-3
Financial constraints and short-term planning are linked to flood risk adaptation gaps in US cities, Lu & Nakhmurina, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01163-z
Local multilevel governance arrangements for climate change planning and management in Kumasi, Ghana, Asibey et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103680
Participatory justice and climate adaptation for water management in Small Island Developing States: a systematic literature review and discussion, Bailey et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-024-02182-y
Reducing social vulnerability to climate change: the role of microfinance organisations, Nuruzzaman et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2305762
Climate change impacts on human health
A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy, Roy, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339
Comparing Approximated Heat Stress Measures Across the United States, Ahn et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gh000923
Editorial Note: A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy, , PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000368
Potential radon risk in permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere under climate change: A review, Zhang et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104684
Climate change & geopolitics
Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change, López-Blanco et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01903-1
Climate change impacts on human culture Other
Observed Extreme Freshening in the Central Andaman Sea Induced by Strong Positive Indian Ocean Dipole, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020406
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
COP28: Loss and damage, fossil fuels and the limits of climate diplomacy, Harris, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000351
Editorial: Building flood resilience under climate change, Wang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1365749
Editorial: Decision making for the net zero transformation: considerations and new methodological approaches, Workman et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1355110
The principles of natural climate solutions, Ellis et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-44425-2
“Grid-enhancing technologies” can squeeze a lot more power from the existing electric grid, Carey, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2322803121
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
A Race to the Top, Southeast Asia, Smith et al., Global Energy Monitor
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries have over 28 GW of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity and a 20% increase in operating capacity since January 2023 and make up 9% of ASEAN countries’ total electrical capacity. Vietnam has the largest share of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the region (19 GW). Thailand and the Philippines follow, each with 3 GW of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity. The Philippines and Vietnam are emerging leaders globally. With 99 GW and 86 GW respectively for prospective utility-scale solar and wind, they have the 8th and 9th largest prospective capacity worldwide. The ASEAN countries have almost five times more prospective offshore wind power than prospective onshore wind in the region, while prospective offshore capacity in the region (124 GW) is nearly twice that of the current global offshore operating capacity (69 GW). In order for ASEAN countries to meet their goal of 35% installed renewable energy capacity by 2025, 17 GW of additional utility-scale solar and wind capacity needs to become operational among ASEAN members in the next two years, yet only 3% (6 GW) of its 220 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind is currently in construction.
Destination Zero, A deep dive into the global state of corporate climate action, Kähkönen et al., South Pole, The Climate Company
The authors report that the overwhelming majority of climate-conscious companies say they have set a net zero target and report that this target is vital to their commercial success. Customer demand is the leading driver of climate action. Among this group, net zero seems to be standard practice and is considered business-critical. Based on these results, one would expect such companies to be proudly communicating their climate action. However, when digging deeper into the findings, the authors see a critical contradiction that has the potential to severely delay our collective efforts on net zero. The survey shows that a majority of surveyed companies are actively decreasing their climate communications. The collected data offers a rare glimpse into this tension, which sits at the heart of corporate climate action today. It reveals that regulation, industry requirements on reporting on climate goals and heightened scrutiny from various stakeholders are the core reasons for companies keeping quiet about their climate goals and progress.
The Great Reallocation. Capital expenditure on energy production, Bond et al., RMI
The authors show that contrary to popular belief, the buildout of renewable energy supply does not require a surge in capital expenditure (capex). As fossil fuel capex falls, the net growth in capex is only 2 percent per year, in line with the past seven years, and much lower than in the decade after 2000. Financing the energy transition is a story of capital reallocation. Over the next seven years, renewable capex will roughly double and fossil fuel capex will roughly halve under core International Energy Agency scenarios. Falling fossil fuel capex will therefore provide half of the growth in renewable capex. This capital reallocation is very achievable. The required growth in energy supply capex of 2 percent is lower than the expected global GDP growth of 3 percent and lower than the annual increase in energy supply capex from 2000–2010 of 9 percent. Given that the capital formation in 2022 was $27 trillion, the additional capex on energy supply would constitute only 1 percent of global capex. Achieving the achievable still requires work. The key now is to ensure that capex moves from generation to grids, and from developed markets to emerging markets. The primary impediments to change are policy and expertise rather than the volume or availability of capital.
DRAFT: State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science and Policy Update, California Sea Level Rise Science Task Force, California Ocean Protection Council, California Ocean Science Trust
Failure to adequately prepare now will have significant cost implications in the future and consequences to public health and safety, wildlife and habitats, private property, and infrastructure necessary to maintain daily living in California. It will also have impacts on communities burdened by social and environmental injustice who are already disproportionately impacted by climate change, industrialization, and pollution. To build resilience for coastal communities and ecosystems, thoughtful science-based planning and adaptation actions need to happen now. This updated State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance provides the best available science and policy recommendations from which to make these decisions. California’s enduring connection to the coast demands that we acknowledge the threats on the horizon and innovate to adapt to the changes ahead.
Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK. State of the evidence 2023, Gillingham et al., UK Health Security Agency
To secure health there is a need to understand both the impacts of climate change on health but also, importantly, effective interventions to protect health. The authors bring together up-to-date evidence to inform policies and actions to secure health. The authors provide an authoritative summary of the scientific evidence on the health effects of climate change, potential implications for public health, and gaps in evidence. The report is primarily a scientific and technical document that collates up-to-date knowledge to inform policy and action in the United Kingdom. The report also acts as a resource for public health and other professional bodies and groups, government departments and authorities, science-facing civil society organizations, and interested stakeholders and partners with a role in securing health from the effects of climate change.
SubjectToClimate Climate Education Essentials Courses, SubjectToClimate
This is a series of free, online courses developed by SubjectToClimate to help teachers teach about climate change. Level 0 is about climate change basics. It includes five modules, including the history of climate science, climate science basics, and climate solutions. Level 0 takes approximately 4 hours to complete. Level 1 is about teaching climate change. It includes nine modules, including reasons for teaching about climate change, how to incorporate climate change into the curriculum, and ways to address misinformation. Level 1 takes approximately 6 hours to complete. Level 2 guides teachers in developing K-12 inquiry-based climate lesson plans for all subjects. It includes ten modules, including how to effectively choose resources, how to align the lesson plan to standards, and how to create accompanying materials. Level 2 takes approximately 4 hours to complete.
How Economics Can Tackle the ‘Wicked Problem’ of Climate Change, Stiglitz et al., School of International and Public Affairs/Institute of Global Politics, Columbia University
Addressing the harmful effects of climate change requires an understanding of economic tradeoffs, the politics of policymaking, and the strategy of diplomacy. While early prescriptions for climate solutions focused on idealistic “optimal” policies and all-encompassing global treaties, a more nuanced and realistic vision for climate progress has emerged. As befits a “wicked problem,” a wide range of policies and insights from across scientific disciplines are needed to promote collective action, reduce emissions, and help the world achieve a more sustainable future.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
Suggestions
Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.
Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.
Comments