Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #49 2024
Posted on 5 December 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations, Kornhuber et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences:
Multiple recent record-shattering weather events raise questions about the adequacy of climate models to effectively predict and prepare for unprecedented climate impacts on human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Here, we show that extreme heat in several regions globally is increasing significantly and faster in magnitude than what state-of-the-art climate models have predicted under present warming even after accounting for their regional summer background warming. Across all global land area, models underestimate positive trends exceeding 0.5 °C per decade in widening of the upper tail of extreme surface temperature distributions by a factor of four compared to reanalysis data and exhibit a lower fraction of significantly increasing trends overall. To a lesser degree, models also underestimate observed strong trends of contraction of the upper tails in some areas, while moderate trends are well reproduced in a global perspective. Our results highlight the need to better understand and model the drivers of extreme heat and to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to avoid further harm from unexpected weather events.
The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030, Heuzé & Jahn Jahn, Nature Communications:
Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice-free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range of the projected first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used. Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3–6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with strong winter and spring warming.
Global lake phytoplankton proliferation intensifies climate warming, Shi et al., Nature Communications:
In lakes, phytoplankton sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and store it in the form of biomass organic carbon (OC); however, only a small fraction of the OC remains buried, while the remaining part is recycled to the atmosphere as CO2 and methane (CH4). This has the potential effect of adding CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq) to the atmosphere and producing a warming effect due to the higher radiative forcing of CH4 relative to CO2. Here we show a 3.1-fold increase in CO2-eq emissions over a 100-year horizon, with the effect increasing with global warming intensity. Climate warming has stimulated phytoplankton growth in many lakes worldwide, which, in turn, can feed back CO2-eq and create a positive feedback loop between them. In lakes where phytoplankton is negatively impacted by climate warming, the CO2-eq feedback capacity may diminish gradually with the ongoing climate warming.
Mediterranean seagrasses provide essential coastal protection under climate change, Agulles et al., Scientific Reports:
Seagrasses are vital in coastal areas, offering crucial ecosystem services and playing a relevant role in coastal protection. The decrease in the density of Mediterranean seagrasses over recent decades, due to warming and anthropogenic stressors, may imply a serious environmental threat. Here we quantify the role of coastal impact reduction induced by seagrass presence under present and future climate. We focus in the Balearic Islands, a representative and well monitored region in the Mediterranean. Our results quantify how important the presence of seagrasses is for coastal protection. The complete loss of seagrasses would lead to an extreme water level (eTWL) increase comparable to the projected sea level rise (SLR) at the end of the century under the high end scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. Under that scenario, the eTWL could increase up to ~ 1.4 m, with 54% of that increase attributed to seagrass loss. These findings underscore the importance of seagrass conservation for coastal protection.
Misinformation exploits outrage to spread online, McLoughlin et al., Science:
We tested a hypothesis that misinformation exploits outrage to spread online, examining generalizability across multiple platforms, time periods, and classifications of misinformation. Outrage is highly engaging and need not be accurate to achieve its communicative goals, making it an attractive signal to embed in misinformation. In eight studies that used US data from Facebook (1,063,298 links) and Twitter (44,529 tweets, 24,007 users) and two behavioral experiments (1475 participants), we show that (i) misinformation sources evoke more outrage than do trustworthy sources; (ii) outrage facilitates the sharing of misinformation at least as strongly as sharing of trustworthy news; and (iii) users are more willing to share outrage-evoking misinformation without reading it first. Consequently, outrage-evoking misinformation may be difficult to mitigate with interventions that assume users want to share accurate information.
Increasingly Active Wildfire Seasons Threaten the Sustainability of Forest-Backed Carbon Offset Programs, Badgley, Global Change Biology:
In 2024, wildfires burned a record number of forests participating in California's forest offset program, exposing the danger of relying on forests to slow climate change. While California maintains a reserve of offset credits—known as a “buffer pool”—that is intended to safeguard against such carbon losses, the growing frequency, and severity of wildfires threatens to undermine the program's environmental goals.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Aligning with Net Zero in the PR & Advertising Sector, InfluenceMap
The authors analyze the corporate clients of the Big Six public relations and advertising agency holding companies – Dentsu, Havas, IPG, Publicis, Omnicom, and WPP. Client mapping of the 'Big Six' reveals significant potential ‘conflicts of climate interest’, where clients of the same holding company have opposing objectives in their climate policy advocacy. Using available Ad / PR agency client lists, the authors categorize clients with a traffic light system: Obstructive (Red), Partially Misaligned (Amber), Partially Aligned (Yellow), or Supportive (Green) in their climate policy engagement. While several of the Big 6 holding companies have strategies to work with clients to promote ‘low-carbon' or ‘sustainable’ products to the market, none have developed science-based methodologies to ensure these products align with a 1.5°C future.
Selling Hot Air. Lessons from how Shell’s flagship carbon capture project sold $200M of credits for reductions that never happened, Greenpeace Canada
Shell’s flagship carbon capture project has made over $200 million (CAD) selling emissions credits for reductions that never happened. The findings come as Canadian oil sands companies advertise carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a solution to oil sands pollution while lobbying against regulations that would cap emissions from the sector.
Safeguarding International Climate Protection Against the Trump Agenda. What Germany and the EU Can Do Now, Vinke et al., German Council on Foreign Relations
International climate protection is in trouble. A second Trump presidency will derail US climate leadership, leading to a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and reducing international climate finance. Therefore, the EU and Germany must step up, leading by expanding green tech development and strengthening partnerships with key global players.
133 articles in 56 journals by 767 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A positive atmospheric feedback on the North Atlantic warming hole, Kramer et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-80381-7
Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s, Uribe et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024
Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship, Jarvis & Forster, Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5
Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7
Large warming of tropical convective anvils masked by their underlying clouds, Pan et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114524
Late-arriving 2023 summer marine heatwave in the East China Sea and implications for global warming, Oh et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-024-00846-4
Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown, Su et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x
Weakening of the AMOC and strengthening of Labrador Sea deep convection in response to external freshwater forcing, Wei & Zhang, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54756-3
Observations of climate change, effects
20th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442
Enhanced wind mixing and deepened mixed layer in the Pacific Arctic shelf seas with low summer sea ice, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54733-w
Future Climate Change in the Northern Bering Sea, Overland & Wang, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8697
Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations, Kornhuber et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2411258121
Regulatory factors and climatic impacts of marine heatwaves over the Arctic Ocean from 1982 to 2020, Zhang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8630
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A consistent ocean oxygen profile dataset with new quality control and bias assessment, Gouretski et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-5503-2024
ClimeApp: data processing tool for monthly, global climate data from the ModE-RA palaeo-reanalysis, 1422 to 2008 CE, Warren et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-2645-2024
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
Contrasting the Evolution of the Tropical Pacific SST Responses to Time-Invariant Extratropical Forcings in the Two Hemispheres, Tseng & Hwang, Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2024gl110551
Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, Friedlingstein et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
Modeling 2020 regulatory changes in international shipping emissions helps explain anomalous 2023 warming, Quaglia & Visioni Visioni, Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1417
More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2
Projected Intensification and Expansion of Heat Stress and Related Population Exposure Over Africa Under Future Climates, Dajuma et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004646
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Global Assessment of Atmospheric Forcing Uncertainties in The Common Land Model 2024 Simulations, Bai et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041520
Influence of the Southern Hemisphere Supergyre on Antarctic Intermediate Water Properties in CMIP6 Models, Meuriot et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021140
Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate, Arriolabengoa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5
Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6, Gier et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024
Cryosphere & climate change
47 Years of Large Antarctic Calving Events: Insights From Extreme Value Theory, MacKie et al., Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2024gl112235
Accelerated Basal Melt Rates of Ice Shelves in North Greenland From 2013 to 2022 Estimated With the High-Resolution ArcticDEM, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021509
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Global Assessment of Atmospheric Forcing Uncertainties in The Common Land Model 2024 Simulations, Bai et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041520
Influence of the Southern Hemisphere Supergyre on Antarctic Intermediate Water Properties in CMIP6 Models, Meuriot et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021140
Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate, Arriolabengoa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5
Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6, Gier et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024
Elevation dependency of snowfall changes under climate change over the tibetan plateau: Evidence from CMIP6 GCMs, Gao et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107832
Hydrography and circulation below Fimbulisen Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, from 14 years of moored observations, Lauber et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-20-1585-2024
Multi-decadal collapse of East Antarctica’s Conger–Glenzer Ice Shelf, Walker et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01582-3
Ocean warming drives immediate mass loss from calving glaciers in the high Arctic, Foss et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54825-7
Responses of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers to melt and sliding parameterizations, Joughin et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2929
The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030, Heuzé & Jahn Jahn, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54508-3
The influence of firn layer material properties on surface crevasse propagation in glaciers and ice shelves, Clayton et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-5573-2024
Sea level & climate change
Effects of sea level rise and tidal flat growth on tidal dynamics and geometry of the Elbe estuary, Mahavadi et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1288
Predicted exposure of communities in southeastern United States to climate-related coastal hazards, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02181-1
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Response of atmospheric CO2 changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636
Responses of shallow subarctic ponds to a warming climate in the Anthropocene: a palaeolimnological perspective from the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada, Nishikawa et al., Boreas Open Access 10.1111/bor.12685
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
An Impact of Cobalt on Freshwater Phytoplankton in Warming Polar Regions?, Zhu et al., Geophysical Research Letters 10.1029/2024gl110065
Climate Change and the Emergence of No-Analog Forest Assemblages in North America, Gougherty et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17605
Climate growth limitations of European beech and silver fir along the Carpathian arc – the recent state and future prospects, Kašpar et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110323
Climate refugia in the Great Barrier Reef may endure into the future, Sun et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ado6884
Climate suitability for the moisture-sensitive conifer species may not be universally declining in a warming world, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110328
Combining past and contemporary species occurrences with ordinal species distribution modeling to investigate responses to climate change, Beever et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07382
Evidence for an Adaptive, Large-Scale Range Shift in a Long-Distance Terrestrial Migrant, Gurarie et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17589
Forecasting the Effects of Global Change on a Bee Biodiversity Hotspot, Buckner et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70638
Global lake phytoplankton proliferation intensifies climate warming, Shi et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54926-3
High temperatures are associated with decreased immune system performance in a wild primate, Lucore et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adq6629
Holobiont Traits Shape Climate Change Responses in Cryptic Coral Lineages, Grupstra et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17578
How Much Warming Can Mosquito Vectors Tolerate?, Couper et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2024.01.03.574109
Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century, Messmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01731-x
Mediterranean seagrasses provide essential coastal protection under climate change, Agulles et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-81026-5
Mortality Patterns and Recovery Challenges in Millepora alcicornis after mass bleaching event on Northeast Brazilian Reefs, Vidal et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106864
No Sign of Homogenisation in Reef Fish Communities Across an Ecological Transition Zone Exposed to Warming, Silva et al., Diversity and Distributions 10.1111/ddi.13923
Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855
Plastic Behaviour Buffers Climate Variability in the Wandering Albatross, Gillies et al., Ecology and Evolution 10.1002/ece3.70631
Recurrent Extreme Climatic Events Are Driving Gorgonian Populations to Local Extinction: Low Adaptive Potential to Marine Heatwaves, Ramirez-Calero et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2024.05.13.593802
Recurrent marine heatwaves compromise the reproduction success and long-term viability of shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian Eunicella singularis, Sarda et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106822
Spatial variations of ascidian diets in a glacial retreated fjord of the West Antarctic Peninsula, Kim et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106891
The Loss of Beneficial Thermal Priming on Global Coral Reefs, Li et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17592
The role of lag phases between real-term marine heatwaves in the trait responses of two macrophyte species, Gillis et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106894
The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO2 and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels, Maxwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01795-9
Coupled Impact of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity on the Changes of Terrestrial Organic Carbon Accumulation in the River-Dominated Coastal Margin, Jiang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021114
Dual Role of Aerosols on Reactive Bromine Recycling in Extrapolar Marine and Continental Regions, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jd042040
Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of methane in global upland and wetland ecosystems, Wu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110325
Estimating the Electric Fields Driving Lightning Dart Leader Development With BIMAP-3D Observations, Jensen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041078
GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO2 recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598
Global Land Use Change and Its Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Li et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17604
Habitat Changes at the Local Scale Have Major Impacts on Waterfowl Populations Across a Migratory Flyway, de Felipe et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17600
Important role of Fe oxides in global soil carbon stabilization and stocks, Jia et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54832-8
Microbial Diversity Losses Constrain the Capacity of Soils to Mitigate Climate Change, Li et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17601
Navigating Greenhouse Gas Emission Unknowns: A Hydroacoustic Examination of Mediterranean Climate Reservoirs, Thirkill et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008080
PCOT: An open-source toolkit for multispectral image processing, Finnis et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.283
Resolving Heterogeneity in CO2 Uptake Potential in the Greenland Coastal Ocean, Henson et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.171052503.36306724/v1
Root-Borne Microbial Necromass—An Overlooked Source of Grassland Soil Organic Carbon, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110908
Seasonal CO2 amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The effect of nitrogen input on methane uptake in a wet and a dry year from a temperate desert steppe, Yue et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110327
Towards the Development of a Comprehensive Heatwave Proneness Index and Identification of Hotspots Across Indian Mainland, Sarkar & Maity, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041775
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Advancing the frontiers of CO2 geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906
Potential increase of neurotoxic mercury risk in global blue carbon nature-based solutions, Ci et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-024-01471-y
Decarbonization
Endangered Black-faced Spoonbills alter migration across the Yellow Sea due to offshore wind farms, Lai et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4485
Photovoltaic installations are extensively deployed in areas at risk of extremely low production, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01932-4
Understanding solar minigrid sustainability and impact through a holistic key performance indicator framework, Eales et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad8fcd
Geoengineering climate
Assessing GFDL-ESM4.1 Climate Responses to a Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Strategy Intended to Avoid Overshoot 2.0°C Warming, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113532
How does the latitude of stratospheric aerosol injection affect the climate in UKESM1?, Henry et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024
Informative risk analyses of radiative forcing geoengineering require proper counterfactuals, Lee et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01881-y
Neither climate laboratory nor knowledge vacuum: What’s at stake for the Global South in the debate around solar geoengineering research, Mutiso, Science 10.1126/science.adt9594
Reply to: Informative analyses of radiative forcing geoengineering require proper counterfactuals, Müller et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01882-x
The additionality problem of Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement, Bach, Open Access 10.5194/bg-2023-122
Climate change communications & cognition
Balancing stakeholder engagement in climate action: A symbiotic typology approach, Badu et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103953
Climate Change Conversations Amongst Young Adults: On Conversational Safety and the Search for Consensus in Polarizing Interactions, Pröpper et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2024.2429880
Misinformation exploits outrage to spread online, McLoughlin et al., Science Open Access 10.1126/science.adl2829
The power of human narrative: Inspiring action on climate change, Husain-Naviatti, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103954
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Assessment of extreme climate stress across China’s maize harvest region in CMIP6 simulations, Xiao et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4312847/v1
Cropland Exposure to Extreme Dryness and Wetness in China Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8715
Forest fertilization transiently increases soil CO2 efflux in young Norway spruce stands in Sweden, Håkansson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110287
Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Seasonal patterns of CO2 exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil, Bianchini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110324
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Nonstationarity in Extreme Precipitation Return Values along the U.S. Gulf and Southeastern Coasts, Jorgensen & Nielsen-Gammon, Journal of Hydrometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0157.1
Unpacking the progression of climate uncertainty into precarity in the urban context of drylands: the case of floods in Lodwar, Turkana, Korzenevica et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2024.2434135
Climate change economics
Author Correction: World economies’ progress in decoupling from CO2 emissions, Freire-González et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-75404-2
Climate change mitigation public policy research
1 + 1 > 2? The synergistic effect of carbon emissions reduction policies: empirical evidence from China, Jiang et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2424230
Carbon territoriality at the land-water interface, Miller, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102954
Country-level differences in the electrified kilometers of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles across Europe, Mandev & Sprei, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad96e1
Enhancing decision-making for climate change mitigation and sustainable urban growth, Parvar et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102223
Estimating the distributive impacts of climate mitigation policies in the power sector in Ghana, Lambon-Quayefio et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101589
Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2
Increasingly Active Wildfire Seasons Threaten the Sustainability of Forest-Backed Carbon Offset Programs, Badgley, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17599
Justice or just plans? Reviewing the energy transition strategy of Brazil's Ceará state, Abram & Hoge Cropanzano Vega-Hernández Stretch Miller Hintz A.L.W. Watson , Social Thought Open Access 10.1300/j131v22n02_11
National goal, local resistance: How institutional gaps hinder local renewable energy development in Taiwan, Shen & Tai , Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101586
Negotiating risks in electricity market regimes: What lessons can be learned from the history of liberalisation reform for net zero transitions?, Bolton, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103790
Strengthening commercial viability through greater inclusiveness in rural mini-grid deployment: Insights from Nigeria and Kenya, Sesan et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101584
The intangible technological innovation system: The role and influence of voluntary and compliance carbon markets on carbon dioxide removal in the European Union, Deknatel & van der Loos, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103851
To reform or not reform? Competing energy transition perspectives on Indonesia's monopoly electricity supplier Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), Oertel, European Education Open Access 10.2753/eue1056-4934270485
What impedes solar energy deployment? New evidence from power developers in the Arab Gulf states, Sim & Young, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101597
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A study on risk perception and adaptive behavior of the Chinese public toward urban heat based on the MPPACC model, Chen et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102224
Climate change mitigation and adaptation through optical-wireless communication networks: applications, challenges, and opportunities, Mrabet & Sliti, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480190
Fragility Modeling of Power Grid Infrastructure for Addressing Climate Change Risks and Adaptation, Karagiannakis et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.930
Future research directions for understanding the interconnections between climate change, water scarcity, and mobility in rural Central Asia, Hermans et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2024.2436090
Growing Threat of Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Inland Areas of East China, Yan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111877
Stabilising CO2 concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation, Lu & Tambakis, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-79437-5
The role of community leadership in building community adaptive capacity to coastal hazards – Insights from neighborhood networks in Semarang, Indonesia, Gisevius et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103963
Climate change impacts on human culture
International tourism carbon footprint and carbon transfer along the belt and road regions, Shi et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1440510
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Climate intervention research in the World Climate Research Programme: a perspective, Hurrell et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1505860
‘Tipping points’ confuse and can distract from urgent climate action, Kopp et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02196-8
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Selling Hot Air. Lessons from how Shell’s flagship carbon capture project sold $200M of credits for reductions that never happened, Greenpeace Canada
Shell’s flagship carbon capture project has made over $200 million (CAD) selling emissions credits for reductions that never happened. The findings come as Canadian oil sands companies advertise carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a solution to oil sands pollution while lobbying against regulations that would cap emissions from the sector.
Right here! Right now! New roles for energy efficiency in an electrified energy system, Santini et al., Regulatory Assistance Project
The European Commission is currently developing an electrification strategy to deliver this vital tool for meeting EU climate targets. One aspect that has been historically overlooked is the contribution of energy efficiency policy in the electrification process. Up to now, EU governments have mainly put in place energy efficiency policies to reduce energy consumption overall, regardless of their impact on electrification. The authors explain how energy efficiency can play a crucial role in making electrification more affordable and inclusive. They show the growing importance of considering the time and location of energy savings — to maximize the benefits of energy efficiency for electrification — and provide three key recommendations to help decision-makers enhance the impacts of their policies.
Extreme weather risks: An analysis of England’s vulnerability to flooding and heat, AXA UK
The authors identify the areas of England where homes are most vulnerable to risks from extreme weather, with London coming top of the table for both flooding and heat. Sheffield residents are at high risk for flooding but not heat and Bristol and Birmingham homes are vulnerable to heat but not flooding. The in-depth study creates a heat map of England showing areas most vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather, against the backdrop of an ambitious UK Government housebuilding target. More than half (52%) of people polled said their homes were not equipped to deal with the impact of flooding or extreme heat, a lesser-known risk that can cause cracking and subsidence AXA UK claims data provides insight into the future cost of flooding – homes most at risk face financial costs of at least £818m by 2055.
Advancing the UNSC climate security agenda, Louise Wiuff Moe, Danish Institute for International Studies
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) does not have a climate security resolution that formally places the matter on the council’s agenda, nor a dedicated budget for this area. Traditional military and security solutions are ill-suited to address the root causes of climate-related insecurities. A more inclusive security approach is needed to consider interconnected risks, including human, food, and environmental insecurities. Initiatives within UN missions to strengthen interagency collaboration and adopt nexus approaches should be upscaled to enhance synergies between climate adaptation support, climate finance, and peace and security efforts. Regional climate security frameworks provide key entry points for the UN and UNSC to enhance international–regional partnerships.
The EU’s Triple-Nexus Challenge: Climate, Conflict, Democracy The EU’s fragmented approaches to the crises of climate change, Youngs et al., The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The EU’s fragmented approaches to the crises of climate change, conflict, and democracy fall short by not addressing the mutually reinforcing links between them. Brussels needs an integrated strategy to tackle the emerging three-way nexus and mitigate the vulnerabilities it creates. The EU needs ways to integrate its currently disparate climate, conflict, and democracy policies into a seamless whole. This will become an ever more pressing and cross-cutting imperative for EU foreign policy but, at present, risks getting lost from view because of other more tangible, short-term priorities.
Safeguarding International Climate Protection Against the Trump Agenda. What Germany and the EU Can Do Now, Vinke et al., German Council on Foreign Relations
International climate protection is in trouble. A second Trump presidency will derail US climate leadership, leading to a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and reducing international climate finance. Therefore, the EU and Germany must step up, leading by expanding green tech development and strengthening partnerships with key global players.
Congressional Budget Office’s Benchmark Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, David Austin and Ron Gecan, Congressional Budget Office
The Congressional Budget Office maintains a 10-year benchmark projection of annual GHG emissions to estimate the effects that certain GHG emissions policies, such as setting a price on those emissions, would have on the federal budget. This report presents the CBO’s most recent projection of GHG emissions. According to that projection, GHG emissions in the United States, measured in CO2e, decline by about 8 percent from 2025 to 2034. That decline is driven by a projected decrease of 15 percent in energy-related emissions of CO2, partially offset by an increase of 9 percent in other, non-energy-related emissions.
Aligning with Net Zero in the PR & Advertising Sector, InfluenceMap
The authors analyze the corporate clients of the Big Six public relations and advertising agency holding companies – Dentsu, Havas, IPG, Publicis, Omnicom, and WPP. Client mapping of the 'Big Six' reveals significant potential ‘conflicts of climate interest’, where clients of the same holding company have opposing objectives in their climate policy advocacy. Using available Ad / PR agency client lists, the authors categorize clients with a traffic light system: Obstructive (Red), Partially Misaligned (Amber), Partially Aligned (Yellow), or Supportive (Green) in their climate policy engagement. While several of the Big 6 holding companies have strategies to work with clients to promote ‘low-carbon' or ‘sustainable’ products to the market, none have developed science-based methodologies to ensure these products align with a 1.5°C future.
Defining Voltaic Landscape for Sustainability, Hernandez et al., Wild Energy Center, University of California, Davis
As California faces pressure to grow both food and energy while protecting biodiversity — all on a finite amount of land — a trend is emerging in the field of clean energy: multi-use solar projects or sustainable voltaics. The authors define such projects and describe the challenges and opportunities they present for the state’s landscapes.
Integrating peacebuilding and climate action. Lessons from Nigeria and Kenya, International Alert
In climate security hotspots, where natural resources under severe climate stress are driving conflict, climate action, and peacebuilding can and should go hand in hand. Northern Kenya and Nigeria’s Northwest and Middle Belt are examples of such hotspots where peacebuilding and climate action can effectively be integrated. The authors demonstrate how integrating peacebuilding approaches into climate programming can contribute to more effective, needs-oriented, and environmentally and socially sustainable responses to climate security risks.
Alaska's Changing Environment, Thoman and McFarland, editors, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks
The authors highlight environmental changes and extremes that impact Alaskans' lives and livelihoods. Over the last five years extreme weather, climate, and environmental events have become more frequent. All regions of the state have been impacted, from landslides in Southeast and typhoon Merbok along the Bering Sea to long-term erosion and permafrost thaw in northwest Alaska. The authors update key long-term climate trends and highlight changes and impacts that have emerged or accelerated in recent years.
The 2024 Wealth Report. Cultivating resilience in a changing landscape, Beresford Research, Chubb
In this survey of affluent North Americans, the majority with assets exceeding $5 million, the authors found that climate change, cyber threats, and valuables collection security have emerged as the top concerns shaping how the wealthy manage and protect their assets.
Climate X Report Projects $800 Million in Climate-related Losses for Fifa World Cup Venues by 2050, Climate X
Some of the world’s most iconic football stadiums, including those hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, face significant financial losses by 2050 due to escalating climate threats. The authors evaluated the impact of 10 climate hazards, including flooding, wildfires, drought, and extreme heat, under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 scenario. The findings show a sharp increase in financial losses, growing from $130 million in 2020 to an estimated $800 million by 2050. Nearly 40% of total projected losses by 2050 are concentrated in just three venues with the highest Total Loss Percentage. Surface flooding and extreme heat emerged as the most pervasive threats, with some venues facing combined annual losses equivalent to nearly 2% of their current replacement value. While some European stadiums benefit from more temperate climates, U.S. venues - especially those in coastal or high-heat areas - face significantly higher risks.
Interlinking climate change with the Water – Energy – Food – Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus in the Mediterranean Basin, Drobinski et al., Mediterranean Experts on Climate and environmental Change
The Mediterranean region is currently dealing with critical global challenges, including water scarcity, food and energy insecurity, and ecosystem degradation. These challenges are interconnected and are collectively referred to as the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus. The report represents a significant step in understanding the complex relationships between water, energy, food, and ecosystems in the Mediterranean. The authors offer a comprehensive assessment of the available scientific knowledge on these issues, covering the drivers of change, cascading impacts, and response options for addressing the multiple challenges in the region. They emphasize the need for cross-sectoral coordination, technological and social innovation, and ecosystem-based solutions, including nature-based, and transformative governance to mitigate risks and maximize synergies across the WEFE components.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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