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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #3 2025

Posted on 16 January 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Long-term trends in heat wave gaps for the New York City metropolitan area, Lin & Colle, Urban Climate:

Heat waves occurring in close succession to one another are hazardous because of the prolonged stress on the human body and energy demand. A heat wave gap metric, the time between two adjacent heat wave events, was utilized to examine the gap length and frequency trend for several stations around New York City (NYC) during the last several decades. From 1961 to 1990 to 1991–2020, the average heat wave gap for the various stations decreased by 15–41 %, the number of short gaps (≤5 days) increased by 33–300 %, while the number of long gaps (>5 days) remained relatively constant.

Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023, Li et al., Nature Communications:

A major uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of marine-terminating glaciers is ice dynamics driven by non-linear calving front retreat, which is poorly understood and modelled. Using 124919 calving front positions for 149 marine-terminating glaciers in Svalbard from 1985 to 2023, generated with deep learning, we identify pervasive calving front retreats for non-surging glaciers over the past 38 years. We observe widespread seasonal cycles in calving front position for over half of the glaciers. At the seasonal timescale, peak retreat rates exhibit a several-month phase lag, with changes on the west coast occurring before those on the east coast, coincident with regional ocean warming. This spatial variability in seasonal patterns is linked to different timings of warm ocean water inflow from the West Spitsbergen Current, demonstrating the dominant role of ice-ocean interaction in seasonal front changes. The interannual variability of calving front retreat shows a strong sensitivity to both atmospheric and oceanic warming, with immediate responses to large air and ocean temperature anomalies in 2016 and 2019, likely driven by atmospheric blocking that can influence extreme temperature variability. With more frequent blocking occurring and continued regional warming, future calving front retreats will likely intensify, leading to more significant glacier mass loss. 

Profound Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Sea Level Along the United States Mid-Atlantic Coast, Yang & Chen, Geophysical Research Letters:

The monthly mean sea level along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast varies seasonally, reaching a minimum in January and a maximum in September during the 1960–2020 period. However, this seasonal cycle has changed significantly on multi-decadal timescales. In the last two decades, the annual minimum has shifted from January to February. The amplitude of seasonal changes increased by 65% from 14.16 cm in 1980–1999 to 23.16 cm in 2000–2020. Even more concerning, the maximum sea level in September rose by 82%, from 6.81 to 12.38 cm, potentially exacerbating coastal flooding over the past 20 years. A two-layer ocean model effectively replicates both the phase and magnitude of the observed changes and attributes these shifts to changes in wind stress near the coast, with relatively minor influence from deep ocean forcing. Both alongshore and cross-shore wind stress changes are found to contribute to changes in the sea level's seasonal cycle.

Compartmentalization by industry and government inhibits addressing climate denial, Hendlin & Palazzo, PLOS Climate:

The move from outright denialism by the fossil fuel and related industries to ‘soft denial’ urges reassessing the mechanisms and networks of actors involved in anti-environmentalism. One high-level tactic which harnesses evolutionary psychology and organizational self-protective tendencies to willfully overlook negative outcomes involves compartmentalization. Segmented judgment applies to multiple domains, including highlighting commitments, declarations, and philanthropy as a mask for continuing unsustainability. Selective accounting gives the impression that states and companies are doing enough on climate, that things are not as bad as they seem, and that much-touted sustainable actions compensate for continuing environmental harms–in effect reducing the impetus for responsible action and diverting attention from climate change’s primary drivers. This bait-and-switch strategy fragments climate accounting by avoiding including both sustainable and unsustainable initiatives in the same ledger. This study categorizes strategies of compartmentalization according to sectoral, narrative, political, behavioral, and structural perspectives, with examples among agrochemical, fossil, and mining industries. Each of these facets is evaluated through examples of actions undertaken by corporations and public agents, often exploiting Global North-South dynamics. In spite of these aspects having different spheres of influence, acts of compartmentalization are interconnected and represent a core background frame enabling the climate denial machine.

Networks of climate obstruction: Discourses of denial and delay in US fossil energy, plastic, and agrichemical industries, Kinol et al., PLOS Climate:

The use of fossil-derived hydrocarbons in fossil energy, plastic production, and agriculture makes these three sectors mutually reinforcing and reliant on sustained fossil fuel extraction. In this paper, we examine the ways the fossil fuel energy, plastics, and agrichemicals industries interact on social media using Twitter (renamed X as of 2023) data analysis, and we explore the implications of these interactions for policy. Content analysis of the text of tweets from the two largest US corporations and a major trade association for each sector (three discrete social media accounts for each sector) reveals coordinated messaging and identifies synergistic themes among these three sectors. Network analysis shows substantial engagement among the three sectors and identifies common external entities frequently mentioned in each sector. To understand the discursive strategies of the twitter networks of these three petrochemical derivative and fuel sectors, we propose the discourses of climate obstruction framework, adapted from and expanding on Lamb et al.’s (2020) discourses of climate delay framework. Our framework integrates both discourses of delay and discourses of denial because an integration of both were found in our analysis suggesting coordinated efforts to obstruct climate action. Our analysis suggests that discourses to deny and delay climate policy are aligned and coordinated across the three sectors to reinforce existing infrastructure and inhibit change. Exceptions in this alignment emerge for a few distinct sector-specific goals, including contrasting messages about biofuel. Despite some disparate views and different policy priorities among these three sectors, similar efforts to reinforce existing extractive petrochemical hegemony and undermine climate policy are clearly evident in each sector. These findings suggest that more research is needed to understand collaborative efforts among fossil energy, plastic, and agrichemical producers to influence climate and energy policy.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Climate Myth Debunking for Broadcast MeteorologistOrr, George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, Climate Central, AMS Station Scientist Committee, AMS Committee on Hispanic and Latinx Advancement, Monash University, Bristol University

Broadcast meteorologists are in a unique position to communicate with the public about climate change. They are a highly trusted source of scientific information, and studies have shown that when broadcast meteorologists educate their audiences about climate change, their audiences gain new knowledge. However, efforts to communicate about climate change can be canceled out by misinformation. This means addressing misinformation is an important part of engaging the public about climate change. To improve effectiveness, addressing misinformation and misconceptions should be approached as a positive, educational opportunity rather than a negative, confrontational exercise. This toolkit provides interested broadcast meteorologists with evidence-based guidance on how to address climate change misinformation.

Global Climate Highlights 2024Copernicus Climate Change Service

2024 saw unprecedented global temperatures, following on from the remarkable warmth of 2023. It also became the first year with an average temperature exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level – a threshold set by the Paris Agreement to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Multiple global records were broken, for greenhouse gas levels, and for both air temperature and sea surface temperature, contributing to extreme events, including floods, heatwaves, and wildfires. These data highlight the accelerating impacts of human-caused climate change.

Climate Change A Factor In Unprecedented LA FiresMadakumbura et al., Sustainable LA Grand Challenge, University of California, Los Angeles

Climate change may be linked to roughly a quarter of the extreme fuel moisture deficit when the fires began. The fires would still have been extreme without climate change, but probably somewhat smaller and less intense. Given the inevitability of continued climate change, wildfire mitigation should be oriented around (1) aggressive suppression of human ignitions when extreme fire weather is predicted, (2) home hardening strategies, and (3) urban development in low wildfire risk zones. 

132 articles in 56 journals by 862 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

State Dependency of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Contributions to Effective Precipitation Changes, Braschoss et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0355.1

The Cloud Radiative Response to Surface Warming Weakens Hydrological Sensitivity, McGraw et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112368

Why have extreme low-temperature events in northern Asia strengthened since the turn of the 21st century?, Hu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107919

Observations of climate change, effects

20th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442

Attribution of 2022 August Heavy Precipitation Event in South Korea Using High-Resolution Pseudo Global Warming Simulations: Sensitivity to Vertical Temperature Changes, Kwon et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112392

Climate change attribution of Typhoon Haiyan with the Imperial College Storm Model, Sparks & Toumi, Atmospheric Science Letters 10.1002/asl.1285

Concurrent Heat Extremes in Relation to Global Warming, High Atmospheric Pressure and Low Soil Moisture in the Northern Hemisphere, Nasong et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005256

Detecting Rising Wildfire Risks for South East England, Thompson et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70002

Global warming and urbanization triggering the record-breaking heat event in summer 2023 over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China, Wang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102271

Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth, Swain et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z

Long-term trends in heat wave gaps for the New York City metropolitan area, Lin & Colle, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102247

Shift in the Relationship Between Summer Extreme Humid-Heat Events in Eastern China and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature in the Mid-1990s, He & Chen, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112715

Subsurface warming associated with Pacific Summer Water transport toward the Chukchi Borderland in the Arctic Ocean, Muramatsu et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-81994-8

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A comparative analysis of five land surface temperature downscaling methods in plateau mountainous areas, Wang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2024.1488711

Satellites reveal different stories of marine heatwaves in the sea-ice-covered pan-Arctic, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-01997-9

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

A new vision of the Adriatic Dense Water future under extreme warming, Denamiel et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2524

An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z

CMIP6 GCMs Projected Future Koppen-Geiger Climate Zones on a Global Scale, Song et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004401

Distinct anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas effects on El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability, Ren & Liu, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-01996-w

Heatwave Future Changes From an Ensemble of Km-Scale Regional Climate Simulations Within CORDEX-FPS Convection, Sangelantoni et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111147

More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Diagnosing the Factors That Contribute to the Intermodel Spread of Climate Feedback in CMIP6, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0528.1

Do CMIP6 Models Capture Seasonal and Regional Differences in the Asymmetry of ENSO-Precipitation Teleconnections?, Sengupta et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041031

Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate, Arriolabengoa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5

Linking Projected Changes in Seasonal Climate Predictability and ENSO Amplitude, Amaya et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0648.1

Multi criteria evaluation of downscaled CMIP6 models in predicting precipitation extremes, Gupta et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107921

Cryosphere & climate change

A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt, Petrini et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-63-2025

Pervasive glacier retreats across Svalbard from 1985 to 2023, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-55948-1

Updated Arctic melt pond fraction dataset and trends 2002–2023 using ENVISAT and Sentinel-3 remote sensing data, Istomina et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-83-2025

Sea level & climate change

Profound Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Sea Level Along the United States Mid-Atlantic Coast, Yang & Chen, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112273

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 marked the end of the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age, Jurikova et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01610-2

Response of atmospheric CO2 changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636

The geometry of sea-level change across a mid-Pliocene glacial cycle, King et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-21-53-2025

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Adaptation of Archaeal Communities to Summer Hypoxia in the Sediment of Bohai Sea, Guo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70768

An African perspective to biodiversity conservation in the twenty-first century, Bezeng et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2023.0443

Assessing the Role of Incubation Temperature as a Barrier to Successful Establishment of Coho Salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in a Rapidly Warming Arctic, Lindley et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70797

Captivity Reduces Diversity and Shifts Composition of the Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii) Microbiome, Lu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70836

Cellular and genetic responses of Phaeodactylum tricornutum to seawater acidification and copper exposure, Chen et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106928

Changes in forest ecosystem stability under climate change in a temperate landscape, Wijenayake et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1501987

Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet, Williamson et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2023.0321

Coastal carbon sentinels: A decade of forest change along the eastern shore of the US signals complex climate change dynamics, Ardón et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000444

Common Yew (Taxus baccata) as a climate archive: Reconstructing 200 years of temperature change in Georgia (Caucasus), Kvaratskhelia & Gavashelishvili, Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126285

Contrasting demographic processes underlie uphill shifts in a desert ecosystem, Skikne et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4494

COP16 and the process of consolidating an inclusive conservation paradigm, Anderson, Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14438

Earthworms significantly enhance the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition: Insights into future soil carbon budgeting, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110384

Elevated Temperature Diminishes Reciprocal Selection in an Experimental Plant-Pollinator-Herbivore System, Rusman et al., Ecology Letters 10.1111/ele.70060

Evaluating historical changes in a mussel bed community in northern California, Longman et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-86105-9

Even protected seaweeds must face a warming ocean: Sea surface temperatures trigger tissue bleaching and breakdown in the unique giant Irish moss (Chondrus crispus), Gibbons et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106907

Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming, Meza?Joya et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70810

Gyrfalcon Prey Abundance and Their Habitat Associations in a Changing Arctic, Gustafson et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70763

High- and low-temperature stress responses of Porites lutea from the relatively high-latitude region of the South China Sea, Huang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106858

Lack of thermal acclimation in multiple indices of climate vulnerability in bumblebees, Poore et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2024.2216

Lagged climate-driven range shifts at species' leading, but not trailing, range edges revealed by multispecies seed addition experiment, Goodwin et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07331

Local Climatic Effects on Colonisation and Extinction Drive Changes in Mountain Butterfly Communities, Ursul et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.13967

Long-term warming and acidification interaction drives plastic acclimation in the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106901

Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century, Messmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01731-x

Modeling Climate-Driven Vegetation Changes Under Contrasting Temperate and Arid Conditions in the Mediterranean Basin, Bianchini et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70753

Molecular Response to CO2-driven Ocean Acidification in the Larvae of the Sea Urchin Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus: Evidence from Comparative Transcriptome Analyses, Yin et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.106951

Mortality Patterns and Recovery Challenges in Millepora alcicornis after mass bleaching event on Northeast Brazilian Reefs, Vidal et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106864

Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855

Recurrent marine heatwaves compromise the reproduction success and long-term viability of shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian Eunicella singularis, Sarda et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106822

Rethinking Conservation and Restoration Strategies of Endangered and Key Medicinal Clavicarpa Plants in Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau's Karst Areas Under Climate Change, Luo et al., Open Access 10.22541/au.172484731.18732067/v1

Shifted trend in drought sensitivity of vegetation productivity from 1982 to 2020, Tang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110388

The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO2 and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels, Maxwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01795-9

Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP-RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China, Liu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70780

Earthquakes Have Accelerated the Carbon Dioxide Emission Rate of Soils on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Shi et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70024

GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO2 recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598

Greenhouse gas emissions from the US liquefied natural gas operations and shipping through process model based life cycle assessment, Mukherjee et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01988-2

Increased but not pristine soil organic carbon stocks in restored ecosystems, Ascenzi et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-55980-1

Interactive effects of management and temperature anomalies on CO2 fluxes recorded over 18 years in a temperate upland grassland system, Winck et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110343

Ocean acidification and its regulating factors in the East China Sea off the Yangtze River estuary, Liu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.106960

Predicting CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their seasonal variations in a subarctic wetland under two shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110359

Quantifying organic carbon burial rates and stocks in seagrass meadow sediments influenced by sargassum-brown tides, Sánchez-Rojas et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106875

Seasonal CO2 amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7

Soil smoldering in temperate forests: a neglected contributor to fire carbon emissions revealed by atmospheric mixing ratios, Vallet et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-213-2025

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Study of atmospheric CH4, CO2 and N2O at Waliguan WMO/GAW global station: Time series trend, seasonal variation, and attribution analysis association with meteorological factors, Wei et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120994

The presence of the Tibetan Plateau lowers atmospheric CO2 levels via the Atlantic-Pacific carbon seesaw, Du et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104681

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

From the Rainforest to the Fjords: examining equity in carbon capture and storage climate policy, Lefstad & Rivadeneira, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2451644

Mitigating anthropogenic climate change with aqueous green energy, Olim et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-025-86042-7

The role of direct air capture in achieving climate-neutral aviation, Brazzola et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-55482-6

Decarbonization

Challenges and opportunities for high-quality battery production at scale, Attia et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-55861-7

GIS-based approach including social considerations for identifying locations for solar and wind power plants, Bernal-del Río et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101602

Predicting the effect of promoting ultra-low energy buildings in hot summer and warm winter regions on CO2 emission, Wang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101646

The art and science of translucent color organic solar cells, Deng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-55924-9

The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap, Odenweller & Ueckerdt, Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-024-01684-7

The trans-european catchment area of common noctule bats killed by wind turbines in France, Merlet et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-85636-5

Geoengineering climate

Are enhanced rock weathering rates overestimated? A few geochemical and mineralogical pitfalls, Power et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1510747

Climate Impact of Marine Cloud Brightening Solar Climate Intervention Under a Susceptibility-Based Strategy Simulated by CESM2, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041245

Climate change communications & cognition

Compartmentalization by industry and government inhibits addressing climate denial, Hendlin & Palazzo, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000552

Networks of climate obstruction: Discourses of denial and delay in US fossil energy, plastic, and agrichemical industries, Kinol et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000370

What Will the European Climate Look Like in the Future? A Climate Analog Analysis Accounting for Dependencies Between Variables, Bulut et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004972

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A systems thinking approach to examine local food systems planning through a climate-biodiversity-health lens: A Comox Valley case study, Issac et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103972

Amplifying Voices for Climate Resilience: Farm Radio's Role in Maize Farmers’ Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts in Kumbungu District, Ghana, Tham-Agyekum et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2453228

Biochar-amended soil can further sorb atmospheric CO2 for more carbon sequestration, Gui et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01985-5

Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria, Khan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ado5541

Forest fertilization transiently increases soil CO2 efflux in young Norway spruce stands in Sweden, Håkansson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110287

Grazing can reduce wildfire risk amid climate change, Pillar & Overbeck, Science 10.1126/science.adu7471

Institutional services towards climate action: A case of climate change adaptation of agro-pastoralists in the drylands of Nigeria, Madaki et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2447487

Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Seasonal patterns of CO2 exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil, Bianchini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110324

What does Agrivoltaics means? A study on social representations shared by experts and the press in Italy, de Falco et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103918

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Distinct Effect of the Warming Trend on Extreme Mei-Yu Rainfall in June and July over East Asia: Perspectives from Observation and Simulation, Huang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0339.1

Projections of Heavy Precipitation Characteristics Over the Greater Alpine Region Using a Kilometer–Scale Climate Model Ensemble, Estermann et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd040901

Climate change economics

Capital endowments: Explaining energy citizenship using Bourdieu's forms of capital, Long et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103903

Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related risks: an application to transition risk, Bartsch et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2450279

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A multi-model study to inform the United States’ 2035 NDC, Iyer et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-55858-2

A tale of two coals: the politics of time in coal phase out, van Veelen, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2024.2445409

Climate dissociations: Trade associations, energy policy and climate communications in Europe, Dinan et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000467

Confronting shifting energy landscapes and contested domestic politics: Ghana's national oil company and the global energy transition, Tyce et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103901

De-risking green hydrogen? Insights from Chile and South Africa, Scholvin et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114485

Does local ownership matter? A comparative analysis of fourteen wind energy projects in the Netherlands, Brouwer et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103891

Estimating residential building material demand for Ahmedabad 2050 and its impact on CO2 emissions, Trivedi et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad9e6e

Exploring attitudes, beliefs, and motives related to energy efficiency for buildings in Ireland and Italy, Fornara et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103913

Fuel efficiency, power trading, and emissions leakage from driving electric vehicles: Evidence from Chinese provinces, Wei et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114473

Impacts of EPA’s finalized power plant greenhouse gas standards, Bistline et al., Science 10.1126/science.adt5665

Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: a case study on the Italian grid, Di Bella & Colelli, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ada308

Political embedding of climate assemblies. How effective strategies for policy impact depend on context, Pfeffer & Newig, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.103993

Reducing material use and their greenhouse gas emissions in Greater Oslo, Rousseau et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13611

Seas of change: An evolving imaginary of offshore energy capture on the United Kingdom's Continental Shelf, Kraushaar-Friesen et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103889

The polarization of energy preferences – A study on social acceptance of wind and nuclear power attitudes in Sweden, Lindvall et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114492

Towards carbon neutrality: mapping mass retrofit opportunities in Cambridge, UK, Mora & Bardhan, Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.241337

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A proposed method for analyzing historical adaptation pathways of coupled natural-human systems, Doeffinger & Siders, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103969

Intertwined people–nature relations are central to nature-based adaptation to climate change, Locatelli et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2023.0213

Near-term benefits from investment in climate adaptation complement long-term economic returns from emissions reduction, Duan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01976-6

Patterns in reported adaptation constraints: insights from peer-reviewed literature on floods and sea-level rise, Gil-Clavel et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101502

Climate change impacts on human health

Inequitable distribution of risks associated with occupational heat exposure driven by trade, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-55483-5

Nonlinear exposure-response associations of daytime, nighttime, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality amid climate change, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-56067-7

Other

The Meso Multiple in energy and climate research: How different Social Sciences treat the in-betweenness between the micro and macro, Foulds et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103910

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Small islands: living laboratories revealing global climate and sustainable development challenges, Pathirana, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1445378


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate Resilience for Health Care Toolkit, Houghton et al., Office of Climate Change and Health Equity

The toolkit is designed primarily for healthcare emergency preparedness professionals, as well as the multidisciplinary teams that participate in healthcare organizations’ emergency preparedness and resilience planning. The toolkit is designed to be used after completing a hazard vulnerability assessment, using tools like the HHS Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) Risk Identification and Site Criticality (RISC) Toolkit, to inform health care resilience planning in the setting of evolving climate-related disasters and extreme weather events. The toolkit includes information about why climate resilience is important for healthcare organizations to mitigate the risk of costly disruptions to care delivery, evidence-based recommended actions to improve resilience, and a collection of real-world case studies

Predictions 2025 Report, Nick Chiarelli and Freddie Dale, Ipsos

The authors present the results of a 33-country survey conducted through the Ipsos Global Advisor online platform and, in India, on the IndiaBus platform, between Friday, October 25, and Friday, November 8, 2024. Climate results include that fewer think stronger laws to fight climate change will be introduced. The proportion who think their government will introduce stronger targets to reduce carbon emissions is down 3pp compared to last year (now 52%).

Global Climate Highlights 2024, Copernicus Climate Change Service

2024 saw unprecedented global temperatures, following on from the remarkable warmth of 2023. It also became the first year with an average temperature exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level – a threshold set by the Paris Agreement to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Multiple global records were broken, for greenhouse gas levels, and for both air temperature and sea surface temperature, contributing to extreme events, including floods, heatwaves, and wildfires. These data highlight the accelerating impacts of human-caused climate change.

Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Estimates for 2024, Gaffney et al., Rhodium Group

In 2024, US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions did something a bit unusual—they stayed nearly unchanged from last year. Since peaking in 2004, emissions have trended downward in a bumpy fashion. But after a significant decline in 2023, the authors estimate that 2024 emissions were down by just 0.2% year-on-year while the economy grew by 2.7%, continuing a decoupling of emissions and economic activity. Emissions are still below pre-pandemic levels and remain about 20% below 2005 levels, the benchmark for US commitments under the Paris Agreement. Lower manufacturing output drove the overall decrease in 2024 emissions, with industrial sector emissions falling by 1.8%.

Climate Security, Gemma Swan and Simon Brawley, United Kingdom Parliament

Climate change poses a risk to interlinked resources such as food, water, and energy, meaning an impact on one will result in cascade effects in the other two. For instance, water scarcity will negatively impact crop production, including crops grown for biofuel production, resulting in a decrease in biofuel availability. Critical infrastructure is also likely to be impacted by the effects of climate change, including water, sanitation, energy, and transport. Key questions for Parliament include how can the UK successfully embed climate security into climate strategies, policies, and plans?; what is the UK’s current level of readiness for climate security, and what is the scale of the challenge facing the UK? and how can UK funding be best targeted towards ensuring a just transition, climate adaptation, and emergency response planning?

Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2025, US. Global Change Research Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, National Science and Technology Council

The Fiscal Year 2025 edition of USGCRP’s annual report to Congress presents highlights of the Program’s recent accomplishments and outlines future priorities for federal global change research. It also provides a summary of agency expenditures under USGCRP’s budget crosscut, as required by the Global Change Research Act.

Global Temperature Report for 2024 Posted on January 10, 2025 by Robert Rohde, Robert Rohde, Berkeley Earth

2024 was the warmest year on Earth since 1850, exceeding the previous record just set in 2023 by a clear and definitive margin. This period, since 1850, is the time when sufficient direct measurements from thermometers exist to create a purely instrumental estimate of changes in global mean temperature. The last ten years have included all ten of the warmest years observed in the instrumental record. The warming spike observed in 2023 and 2024 has been extreme and represents a larger-than-expected deviation from the previous warming trend. The spike has multiple causes, including both natural variability and man-made global warming from the accumulation of greenhouse gases; however, additional factors are needed to explain the full magnitude of this event. Reductions in low cloud cover and man-made sulfur aerosol pollution are likely to have played a significant additional role in recent warming.

Climate Myth Debunking for Broadcast Meteorologist, Orr, George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, Climate Central, AMS Station Scientist Committee, AMS Committee on Hispanic and Latinx Advancement, Monash University, Bristol University

Broadcast meteorologists are in a unique position to communicate with the public about climate change. They are a highly trusted source of scientific information, and studies have shown that when broadcast meteorologists educate their audiences about climate change, their audiences gain new knowledge. However, efforts to communicate about climate change can be canceled out by misinformation. This means addressing misinformation is an important part of engaging the public about climate change. To improve effectiveness, addressing misinformation and misconceptions should be approached as a positive, educational opportunity rather than a negative, confrontational exercise. This toolkit provides interested broadcast meteorologists with evidence-based guidance on how to address climate change misinformation.

US National Adaptation and Resilience Planning Strategy 2025, US. Government

The U.S. approach to national climate adaptation planning broadly consists of four parts including a periodic climate risk and vulnerability assessment; planning and identification of adaptation options facilitated by an overarching national framework accompanied by a suite of federal agency adaptation plans and assessments of climate security risks; implementation through adjustments to federal policies and programs and through provision of federal investments to enable state, Tribal, territorial, and local adaptation action; and agency-specific efforts to track results and promote effective monitoring, evaluation, and learning.

Climate Security Policy Recommendations for the New Administration, Sikorsky et al., Center for Climate and Security

In 2025, the new administration should redouble efforts to ensure a secure future for the United States by focusing on the following climate security actions including prioritize domestic resilience to disasters; strengthen the US military’s competitive edge through improving its resilience to climate effects; invest in upstream prevention and resilience with US allies and partners; and accelerate efforts to address global food and water insecurity.

Insights from Fossil Fuel Replacement Case Studies, Burt et al., Applied Economics Clinic

The authors review case studies of fossil-fuel plant conversions to clean energy resources across the country and discuss the replacement of existing peaker plants in Massachusetts to achieve statewide climate goals. The authors provide three key takeaways for the Commonwealth including that fossil-fuel sites can be desirable locations for clean energy siting; reducing reliance on fossil-fuel generation can help lessen the burden of environmental and health impacts on already overburdened communities, and fossil-fuel plant conversions are a tool that can be used to achieve state and local greenhouse gas emission limits.

Preliminary U.S. Greenhouse Gas Estimates for 2024, Gaffney et al., Rhodium Group

In 2024, U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions did something a bit unusual—they stayed nearly unchanged from last year. Since peaking in 2004, emissions have trended downward in a bumpy fashion. But after a significant decline in 2023, we estimate that 2024 emissions were down by just 0.2% year-on-year while the economy grew by 2.7%, continuing a decoupling of emissions and economic activity. Emissions are still below pre-pandemic levels and remain about 20% below 2005 levels, the benchmark for US commitments under the Paris Agreement.

The Benefits of Innovation: An Assessment of the Economic Opportunities of Highly Durable Carbon Dioxide Removal, Bower et al., Rhodium Group

The authors provide the most comprehensive look at the carbon removal sector's economic opportunities. The authors show that a carbon removal industry capable of removing 100 million metric tons of carbon emissions per year would add between 95,000 and 130,000 lasting jobs across the United States. These jobs span states, disciplines, and ecosystems, all while generating positive co-benefits for communities including improved soil health, increased crop productivity, reduced wildfire risks, enhanced protection for coral reefs, and more.

Climate Change A Factor In Unprecedented LA Fires, Madakumbura et al., Sustainable LA Grand Challenge, University of California, Los Angeles

Climate change may be linked to roughly a quarter of the extreme fuel moisture deficit when the fires began. The fires would still have been extreme without climate change, but probably somewhat smaller and less intense. Given the inevitability of continued climate change, wildfire mitigation should be oriented around (1) aggressive suppression of human ignitions when extreme fire weather is predicted, (2) home hardening strategies, and (3) urban development in low wildfire risk zones.

Reimagining Energy Efficiency Resource Standards, Frick et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Energy Efficiency Resource Standards (EERS) is a long-standing policy used to advance state goals and priorities, such as reliability, affordability, and decarbonization. They ensure cost-effective energy efficiency is used to lower energy consumption, reduce peak demand, and enable grid flexibility. Adapting EERS through strategic design, and integrating EERS into broader energy plans and policies, can help states optimize their approach to meet modern and evolving power system needs and achieve sustainable energy outcomes. The authors examine how states consider energy efficiency in the context of four policy priorities: providing grid benefits, addressing load growth, reducing emissions, and promoting affordability. They provide examples of states that are pursuing these priorities, review the role of energy efficiency in them and identify opportunities to further promote energy efficiency alongside the priorities. Decisionmakers and stakeholders can draw directly from these examples and findings to design an EERS that maximizes co-benefits, captures synergies, and promotes consideration of all the possible solutions to advance their goals.

Climate Change in the British Mind, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

From 7 November to 13 November 2024, the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication conducted a nationally representative survey of 10,660 British residents (ages 16+). The study was designed to investigate the British public’s awareness of climate change, their perceptions of climate change risks and impacts, and their experiences with extreme weather. The authors also investigate public attitudes toward climate policies and renewable energy.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

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