Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #8 2025
Posted on 20 February 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Long-lasting intense cut-off lows to become more frequent in the Northern Hemisphere, Mishra et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Cut-off Lows are slow-moving mid-latitude storms that are detached from the main westerly flow and are often harbingers of heavy and persistent rainfall. The assessment of Cut-off Lows in climate models is relatively limited, in fact, there are no studies conducted on the future changes of Cut-off Lows within climate models. Given the importance of Cut-off Lows in leading to severe hazards, here we study them in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6’s worst-case future simulations (SSP5-8.5). Most (80%) of the models show that Cut-off Lows with high intensity and longer lifetimes are projected to become more frequent in spring over the land regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Such an increase in Cut-off Low frequency could substantially increase related potential hazards. An increase in Cut-off Low propagation velocity, however, may partly offset this increase in hazard. Lastly, projected changes in the jet stream with possible dynamical linkages to Cut-off Lows corroborate the findings of this study.
Mismatch Between Global Importance of Peatlands and the Extent of Their Protection, Austin et al., Conservation Letters:
Global peatlands store more carbon than all the world's forests biomass on just 3% of the planet's land surface. Failure to address mounting threats to peatland ecosystems will jeopardize critical climate targets and exacerbate biodiversity loss. Our analysis reveals that 17% of peatlands are protected globally—substantially less than many other high-value ecosystems. Just 11% percent of boreal and 27% of temperate and tropical peatlands are protected, while Indigenous peoples' lands encompass at least another one-quarter of peatlands globally. Peatlands in protected areas and Indigenous peoples' lands generally face lower human pressure than outside those areas. Yet, almost half of temperate and tropical peatlands in protected areas still experience medium to high human pressure. Country submissions of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plans under the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework could help catalyze actions and secure funding for peatland conservation, including support for the Indigenous stewardship that is critical to protect many of the world's highest priority peatland areas.
Can residential energy systems withstand the heat? Quantifying solar photovoltaic and heat pump yields for future New Zealand climate conditions, Zegeer et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability:
Our findings revealed that a future climate doubles the cooling demand and reduces the heating demand by one-third, with the heat pump demand peak load projected to be 40% higher than current demand. Although solar PV generation experiences a decrease in efficiency of 8%, there is a 40% increase in annual direct usage of ASHP [air source heat pumps]. Despite the high cooling demand, the combined yearly electricity demand for heating and cooling decreased by 6.5% overall, and the system saw a 50% improvement in demand fulfilment. However, the system performance volatility at hotter-than-normal temperatures and the potential for significant energy shortfalls remain concerns. The shift from a predominantly heating to a cooling environment is a critical design condition that should be considered in energy expansion planning and future electrification. The framework and time series developed in this work can be expanded and applied to other energy system modelling exercises.
Global Land-Water Competition and Synergy Between Solar Energy and Agriculture, Curioni et al., Earth's Future:
The food and energy systems face mounting challenges due to increasing demands and sustainability constraints, which impact their ability to efficiently utilize natural resources, such as land and freshwater. Among these challenges, competition for land between large-scale renewable energy production plants and agriculture poses a risk, especially for photovoltaics. Agrivoltaics offers an opportunity to synergistically use land for simultaneous production of energy and food. Recent studies have investigated the upscaling potential of agrivoltaics, moving from field scale analyses to larger-scale suitability assessments. Yet, studies addressing the interaction between crop dynamics and local climatic factors, as well as explicitly investigating hydrological dynamics of agrivoltaics across crops and climates, are still limited. Here, we first superpose a spatial data set of existing photovoltaic farms with different land use/land cover maps to assess the magnitude of land use competition associated with photovoltaics. Then, we use a spatialized agro-hydrological model to simulate the response to different levels of radiation attenuation of 22 non-irrigated crops in their harvested areas across the globe. We find that 22%–35% of rainfed harvested areas globally would maintain their yields if converted to agrivoltaics, while 13%–16% of ground-mounted photovoltaic plants globally are associated with a cropland to non-cropland transition. While carrying the typical limitations and uncertainties of global studies, our results may offer novel possibilities for cross-crop and cross-location comparisons of agrivoltaic experiences, as well as a basis to have a deeper and cross-scale understanding of the feasibility of photovoltaics.
Soaring Building Collapses in Southern Mediterranean Coasts: Hydroclimatic Drivers & Adaptive Landscape Mitigations, Fouad et al., Earth's Future:
The low-lying, arid coastal regions of the Southern Mediterranean Basin, extending over 4,600 km, face daunting sea level rise and hydroclimatic changes due to shifting weather patterns. The impact of these factors on coastal urban buildings and infrastructure must be better understood. Alexandria, a historic and densely populated port city in Egypt representative of several coastal towns in the Southern Mediterranean, has experienced over 280 building collapses along its shorelines over the past two decades, and the root causes are still under investigation. We examine the decadal changes in coastal and hydroclimatic drivers along the city's coastline using photogrammetric satellite images from 1974 to 2021. We explore the interconnectivity between shoreline retreat, ground subsidence, and building collapses. Our results suggest that collapses are correlated with severe coastal erosion driven by sediment imbalances resulting from decades of inefficient landscape management and urban expansion along the city's waterfront. This severe erosion, combined with sea level rise, increases seawater intrusion, raising groundwater levels in coastal aquifers. Degrading ground stability and accelerating corrosion in building foundations ultimately culminating in collapses. We identified a coastal area of high vulnerability with over 7,000 buildings at risk, surpassing any other vulnerable zone in the Mediterranean Basin. We propose cost-effective and nature-based techniques for coastal landscape adaptation to alleviate these dangers in Alexandria and other Southern Mediterranean cities facing similar climatic challenges.
Estimating the carbon footprint of post-war reconstruction: toward a ‘greener’ recovery of Ukraine, Kobayakawa, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability:
The substantial investment required for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction will likely result in significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study quantitatively estimates the carbon footprint (CF) of the reconstruction process using an environmentally extended multi-region input–output analysis. Results indicate that the projected total CF over a ten-year reconstruction period will amount to 741 Mt-CO2 exceeding Ukraine's pre-war annual territorial emissions by more than fourfold. With the construction industry accounting for 77% of total emissions, there is an urgent need to modernize the sector and enhance its efficiency to achieve significant emission reductions. Key mitigation strategies include modernizing construction processes and implementing large-scale recycling of construction materials like concrete and steel. Beyond reducing emissions, these measures have the potential to foster industrial innovation, generate employment, and align Ukraine's development trajectory with European Union environmental standards. This research highlights the necessity of integrating sustainability into Ukraine's recovery pathway to ensure a greener, more sustainable future for Ukraine.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Fall 2024, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University
Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 5 to 1 (73% versus 14%). Two-thirds of Americans (66%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States. 11% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.
Flying in 2024 and beyond. Research findings from Wave 13 of the CAA’s UK Aviation Consumer Survey, UK. Civil Aviation Authority
Consumers are flying in the highest numbers since this survey began in 2016, with 62% having flown in the last 12 months. This year’s results reinforce the shift in the demographic profile of recent flyers observed last year, with recent flyers skewing much younger than pre-pandemic. The authors asked consumers to prioritize several different areas, to understand the perceived relative importance of areas that the aviation industry might focus on. The exercise revealed reducing the cost of flying to be the most widespread priority amongst consumers, though this is far from universal – only around a quarter (27%) of consumers would prioritize this above all other areas. However, consumers do not feel the industry’s priorities align with their own, particularly in reducing the cost and environmental impact of flying – two areas where relatively few consumers believe the industry is genuinely committed. Attitudes towards the environment are similar to those seen last year, with widespread concern about the environment, but relatively few consumers are willing to fly less or pay more to offset the environmental impact of flying. As seen last year, consumers tend to see paying for environmental measures as the airline’s responsibility rather than their own. Younger consumers care about the environmental impact of aviation, but results suggest that the affordability of flying may be of greater importance to them.
127 articles in 51 journals by 797 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Atmospheric circulation to constrain subtropical precipitation projections, Chemke & Yuval Yuval Yuval, Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-025-02266-5
Distribution Characteristics and Source Analysis of Dissolved Organic Matter with Different Molecular Weights in the Coastal Waters of Zhejiang Province, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107020
Drivers of Regional Variation in the De-Emergence of Climate Change under Negative Emissions, Douglas et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0257.1
Human contribution to atmosphere-ocean thermodynamic factors affecting the intense tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea during the post-monsoon season, Pathaikara et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100755
Tracing the Observed Causal Impact of Diminishing Summer Sea-Ice Concentration on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nichita et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113293
Observations of climate change, effects
Climate Warming and Deglaciation Drive New Peat Formation in the Southern Alps, Aotearoa/New Zealand, Fewster et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113786
Climatological patterns of heatwaves during winter and spring 2023 and trends for the period 1979–2023 in central South America, Marengo et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1529082
Complex network analysis of extreme temperature events in the Contiguous United States, Bosikun et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107995
Increased Occurrence of Stratiform Clouds in the Caribbean Dry Season Since 1971 From Surface Observations, Eastman et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042563
Increasing trends of land and coastal heatwaves under global warming, Zhang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108007
Observational Evidence of Increasing Intensity and Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds During the Indian Summer Monsoon Season, Antony et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111394
Positive surface air temperature trends in a subarctic region: Analyzing the changes in dominant periodic components and energy budget, Salehnia et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107981
Vertical Expansion of Aragonite Undersaturated Waters in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean From 2003 to 2019, Yamamoto?Kawai et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021166
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Unforced Millennial-Scale Oscillations in a Coupled Climate–Carbon System, Zhu & Rose, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0762.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Mean and Extreme Climate over the Tibetan Plateau under 2 SSP scenarios, Zhou et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100747
Evaluation of the Atmospheric Circulation of CMIP6 Models for Extreme Temperature Events Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation, Malhomme et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0719.1
Future Patterns of Compound Dry and Hot Summers and Their Link to Soil Moisture Droughts in Europe, Böhnisch et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004916
How compound wind and precipitation extremes change over Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment from CMIP6 models, Jiang et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1293
Impacts of Antarctic Ice Mass Loss on New Zealand Climate, Pauling et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111047
Impacts of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on Summer Extreme Hot-Humid Compound Events over Southern Eurasia under Different Sea Surface Temperature Backgrounds, Qi et al., Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 10.1007/s00376-024-4073-2
Intensified Atlantic multidecadal variability in a warming climate, Li et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02252-x
Long-lasting intense cut-off lows to become more frequent in the Northern Hemisphere, Mishra et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02078-7
Projected changes in daily temperature extremes for selected locations over South Africa, McBride et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100753
Wildfire risk in a changing climate: Evaluating fire weather indices and their global patterns with CMIP6 multi-model projections, He et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100751
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models, Duran et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3063
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Climate Models Struggle to Simulate Observed North Pacific Jet Trends, Even Accounting for Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends, Patterson & O’Reilly, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl113561
Complementing Dynamical Downscaling With Super-Resolution Convolutional Neural Networks, Rastogi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111828
Evaluating diurnal cloud cycle and its radiative effects from CMIP6, Han et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107985
Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating seasonal extreme precipitation over Ethiopia, Berhanu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100752
The real challenges for climate and weather modelling on its way to sustained exascale performance: a case study using ICON (v2.6.6), Adamidis et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-18-905-2025
Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean, Doléac et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-841-2025
Cryosphere & climate change
Climate warming and wetting poses a severe threat to permafrost engineering stability on the Qinghai?Xizang Plateau, Xu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.001
Fragmentation of ground surface freezing processes in Northeast China from 1950 to 2022, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.002
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Meltwater Pulse 1A sea-level-rise patterns explained by global cascade of ice loss, Coonin et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01648-w
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Adaptation and challenges for giant clam species under marine heatwaves, Geng et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104746
Adapting to a Shifting Planet: The future of Drosera Species amidst global challenges and conservation imperatives., Olivares-Pinto et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100466
An Integrated Global-To-Regional Scale Workflow for Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems, Ortega?Cisneros et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004826
Changing Climate Response of Northeast Ohio White Oaks, USA: Is it Tree Age or Site Age?, Perkins, The Antiquaries Journal Open Access 10.1017/s0003581500038579
Diverse vegetation responses to solar farm installation are also driven by climate change, Wu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02121-7
Does habitat or climate change drive species range shifts?, , Planned Solstice Open Access 10.2307/j.ctt20q1z1s.3
Drivers of marine heatwaves in coral bleaching regions of the Red Sea, Darmaraki et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02096-5
Barriers to Creating a Market for Hydrogen: Insights from Global Roadmaps and Stakeholders in the United States, Iacob et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.103947
Can residential energy systems withstand the heat? Quantifying solar photovoltaic and heat pump yields for future New Zealand climate conditions, Zegeer et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/adaee3
Forest Productivity Decreases in Response to Recent Changes in Vegetation Structure and Climate in the Latitudinal Extremes of the European Continent, Tijerín?Triviño et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.70011
Recent climate change strongly impacted the population dynamic of a North American insect pest species, Boulanger et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2024.08.08.607030
River Drying Causes Local Losses and Regional Gains in Aquatic Invertebrate Metacommunity Diversity: A Cross-Continental Comparison, Escobar?Camacho et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70068
Seagrass influence on mitigating ocean acidification and warming impacts on tropical calcifying macroalgae, Awaluddin et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.106976
The impacts of climate change on the global range of Culicoides punctatus (Meigen, 1804) with notes on its status in Saudi Arabia, Al-Malki, PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18916
The Widely Increasing Sensitivity of Vegetation Productivity to Phenology in Northern Middle and High Latitudes, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113892
Vapor pressure deficit dominates dryness stress on forest biomass carbon in China under global warming, Cen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110440
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A China dataset of soil properties for land surface modeling (version 2), Shi et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-299
Airborne in situ quantification of methane emissions from oil and gas production in Romania, Maazallahi et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025
Annual carbon emissions from land-use change in China from 1000 to 2019, Yang et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-36
Anthropogenic Disturbances Superimpose Climate Effects on Soil Organic Carbon in Savanna Woodlands of Sub-Saharan Africa, Jorge et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2023gb008086
Carbon Emissions Through the Weathering of Petrogenic Organic Carbon and the Net Geological Carbon Budget of the Tibetan Plateau, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110718
Drought Impacts on Plant–Soil Carbon Allocation—Integrating Future Mean Climatic Conditions, Leyrer et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70070
Global Fjords as Minor Sources of Nitrous Oxide to the Atmosphere, Politi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111624
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Lateral Carbon Dynamics at an Eroding Yedoma Permafrost Site in Siberia (Duvanny Yar), Keskitalo et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70071
High-resolution carbon cycling data from 2019 to 2021 measured at six Austrian long-term ecosystem research sites, Dirnböck et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-685-2025
High-resolution Carbon cycling data from 2019 to 2021 measured at six Austrian LTER sites, Dirnböck et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-110
Mismatch Between Global Importance of Peatlands and the Extent of Their Protection, Austin et al., Conservation Letters Open Access 10.1111/conl.13080
N2O Emission From a Subtropical Forest Is Dominantly Regulated by Soil Denitrifiers Under Exogenous N Enrichment and Seasonal Precipitation Distribution Change, Han et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.171378919.91474769/v1
Ocean carbon sink assessment via temperature and salinity data assimilation into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, Bunsen et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1750
Partitioning anthropogenic and natural methane emissions in Finland during 2000–2021 by combining bottom-up and top-down estimates, Tenkanen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-2181-2025
Robust filling of extra-long gaps in eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements from a temperate deciduous forest using eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110438
Satellite-based modeling of wetland methane emissions on a global scale (SatWetCH4 1.0), Bernard et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1331
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Unexpected High Ammonia Emissions From Boreal Fires in 2021 and 2023, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112396
Variability of greenhouse gases in Lagos: CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons in a developing Western Africa megacity, Odu-Onikosi et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102337
Vulnerability of Labile Organic Matter to Eutrophication and Warming in Temperate Mangrove Ecosystems, Thomson et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70087
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Direct air capture of CO2 for solar fuel production in flow, Kar et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-025-01714-y
Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Removal via Enhanced Weathering, Derry et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70067
Macrophyte Restoration Promotes Lake Microbial Carbon Pump to Enhance Aquatic Carbon Sequestration, Chen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70086
Preserving carbon dioxide removal to serve critical needs, Shindell & Rogelj, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02251-y
Decarbonization
Barriers to Creating a Market for Hydrogen: Insights from Global Roadmaps and Stakeholders in the United States, Iacob et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.103947
Can residential energy systems withstand the heat? Quantifying solar photovoltaic and heat pump yields for future New Zealand climate conditions, Zegeer et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/adaee3
Aerosols
Contribution of Ship Emissions to Aerosol Number Concentrations: Parameterization of Plume-Scale Nonlinear Microphysics and Application, Mao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042867
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate Change Cognition, Affect, and Behavior in Youth: A Scoping Review, Tapia?Echanove et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70000
Communicating about “The End of Fossil Fuel” in a museum setting: a mixed-methods investigation of the climate museum, Badullovich et al., 10.31219/osf.io/m3ecr
Leading by example: spillover effects of municipal climate protection leadership on citizens’ climate protection activities, Faure & Schleich, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2447492
Rising seas, rising concerns: how climate change vulnerability shapes opinions towards policy, Reny et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2463860
Somewhere I belong: the field of new climate activists and the Czech environmental movement, Císa? & Navrátil, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2463759
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Agricultural fertilization significantly enhances amplitude of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange, Lombardozzi et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-56730-z
Evaluating present-day and future impacts of agricultural ammonia emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate, Beaudor et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-2017-2025
Global chocolate supply is limited by low pollination and high temperatures, Lander et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02072-z
Global Land-Water Competition and Synergy Between Solar Energy and Agriculture, Curioni et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005291
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Seasonal effects of extreme climate events and sea surface temperature indicators on the vulnerability of marine pelagic fisheries in the Bay of Bengal region, Makwana & Patnaik, Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107009
Tomato yields and quality declines due to elevated soil CO2, Zhang & Ma, Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-89830-3
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Characterizing Compound Inland Flooding Mechanisms and Risks in North America Under Climate Change, Fereshtehpour et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005353
Climate change effects on submarine groundwater discharge and regional variations along the Korean Peninsula, Jung & Yoon, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02084-9
Controls of Climate and Catchment Behaviour on Runoff Response Across Large-Scale Sample, Mingjuan et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8760
Global Warming Is Likely Affecting Regional Drought Across Eurasia, Marvel et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001289
Impact of 21st century climate change on Mississippi River Basin discharge in CESM2 large ensemble projections, Haider et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104742
Mid-Piacenzian and future changes in south Asian precipitation under global warming, Zhou & Liu, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104760
Vegetation greening and climate change respectively regulates the long-term trend and interannual variability in evapotranspiration over the Loess Plateau since the 21st century, Tan et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1513189
Climate change economics
Climate impact auctions: an underused tool for green subsidies in the Global South, Matthey et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2411319
Optimizing afforestation pathways through economic cost mitigates China’s financial challenge of carbon neutrality, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02103-9
Renewable export cost index as an indicator of global renewable energy trade potential, Kan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02094-7
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A Place-based, Just Transition framework can guide industrial decarbonisation with a social licence, Lai et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.103967
Africa's Propensity for a Net Zero Energy Transition, Romadhon et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2465666
Analysing the barriers to renewable energy adoption in Ghana using Delphi and a fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach, James et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101667
Can new energy demonstration cities break through the multiple carbon lock-in? Evidence based on double machine learning, Hu & Xu, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114522
Compensation strategies for renewable energy curtailment in South Korea, Noh et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114501
Energy efficiency improvement of a wood-manufacturing plant in Morocco through energy audit, Nait Abd et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101669
Energy optimization of a residential building for electricity, cooling, and heating: A path to Net Zero Energy, Mekila Mbayam & Bounahmidi, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101672
Land-based climate mitigation strategies for achieving net zero emissions in India, Jaiswal et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1538816
Spatial dynamics of low-carbon transitions: Peer effects and disadvantaged communities in solar energy, electric vehicle, and heat pump adoption in the United States, Min, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.103981
The role of financial incentives in promoting electric light commercial vehicles in the United States, Guo et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114526
Translating global emission reduction goals into built environment policy instruments: an ambitious yet inadequate policy portfolio for Victoria, Australia, Hurlimann et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2459319
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Accounting for Compound Flooding Can Prevent Maladaptation—A Baltic Sea Case Study, Kupfer et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005106
Climate change inequalities: A systematic review of disparities in access to mitigation and adaptation measures, Zahnow et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104021
Climate change, local leadership and the formal-informal nexus: case of Machar Colony, Karachi, Ahmed, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2463597
Increased risk for damages from the dry-rot fungus Serpula lacrymans on buildings in a changing climate, Martinsson & Danielski, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100695
Soaring Building Collapses in Southern Mediterranean Coasts: Hydroclimatic Drivers & Adaptive Landscape Mitigations, Fouad et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004883
Climate change impacts on human health
Advancing adoptability and sustainability of digital prediction tools for climate-sensitive infectious disease prevention and control, Phung et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-56826-6
Diurnal Pattern of Heat Stress Over South Asia: A Wet Bulb Globe Temperature-Based Analysis From 1984 to 2023, Khan et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8797
Interactions of urban heat islands and heat waves in Swedish cities under present and future climates, Wang et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102286
Other
Estimating the carbon footprint of post-war reconstruction: toward a ‘greener’ recovery of Ukraine, Kobayakawa, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/adb2bf
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
A call for resilience and advocacy in the Anthropocene: analyzing Earth Protectors as a tool for environmental action, Hasibuan, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2464166
Arctic food and energy security at the crossroads, Unc et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02122-6
Editorial: Carbon cycle vulnerability across coastal and forested wetlands in response to anthropogenic perturbations, Mitra, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1566370
Make African grasslands climate-change resilient, Akpensuen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02109-3
Book reviews
Overshoot: How the World Surrendered to Climate Breakdown, Renaldi, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2465662
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
50 States of Virtual Power Plants and Supporting Distributed Energy Resources: 2024 State Policy Snapshot, Proudlove et al., The NC Clean Energy Technology Center and the Smart Electric Power Alliance
The authors provide insights on state regulatory and legislative actions related to virtual power plants (VPPs) and distributed energy resource (DER) aggregations. In 2024, 38 states and the District of Columbia advanced policies and regulatory actions related to VPPs and DER aggregations. States and utilities took a total of 105 actions related to VPPs, with the majority focused on individual state or utility VPP, demand response, or active managed charging programs. There were four trends in VPP actions in 2024 including (1) utilities driving VPP activity and expanding programs, (2) state policymakers and regulators developing statewide frameworks for VPPs, (3) states initiating investigations into VPPs, and (4) states considering net metering program interactions.
The State of Clean Energy Deployment in 2025. Tracking America’s clean energy progress, Cleanview
Clean energy in the U.S. had a record-breaking year in 2024. The U.S. added 47% more clean energy capacity in 2024 than in 2023. 95% of capacity added in 2024 was carbon-free; solar and batteries made up 83% of new capacity. Annual solar capacity additions rose by 65% in 2024. Solar grew fastest in Republican states in the South. More than 25% of all solar was built in Texas; 35% of all planned future solar projects are in Texas. Solar finally started growing in Republican states in the South like Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana. Florida overtook California to become the second-largest solar market (by annual capacity additions). The U.S. added a record amount of new battery storage capacity. California built the most storage capacity, followed closely by Texas. New markets emerged in Arizona and Nevada with the addition of multiple mega projects. 70% of storage capacity was built in the top 4 states (CA, TX, AZ, NV). Wind energy had another bad year. Capacity additions were down 23% compared to 2023. Historic wind leaders in the Great Plains failed to build new projects in 2024. But wind developers expect to build 80% more capacity in 2025 than 2024
Climate Risk Index 2025, Adil et al., Germanwatch
The authors analyze extreme weather events’ impacts using three hazard categories; hydrological, meteorological, and climatological. The authors use the Climate Risk Index to visualize these hazard categories to determine their effects on countries both two years before publication and over the preceding 30-year period. The Index draws on data from the EM-DAT international disaster database, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The index considers absolute and relative impacts, using economic loss, fatalities, and affected people – each in absolute and relative terms.
EIB Investment Survey. European Union Overview, André et al., European Investment Bank
The EIB Group Investment Survey (EIBIS), conducted annually since 2016, is a unique survey of approximately 13,000 firms across all European Union Member States, with an additional sample from the United States. The survey collects data on firm characteristics and performance, past investment activities, and plans, sources of finance, financing issues, and other challenges, such as climate change and digital transformation. Climate change and energy efficiency chapter. About 66% of EU firms report they have been impacted by the physical risk of climate change (either a major or minor impact), with more large firms experiencing this impact than small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Portugal and Spain have the highest share of firms impacted by the physical risk of climate change (either major or minor), while this share is the lowest in Latvia and Czechia. The share of firms taking adaptation measures remains relatively low in both the European Union and the United States, with less than 50% of firms choosing to act. In the EU, large firms are more likely to take such measures than SMEs. Only 21% of EU firms are insured against climate risks; this is similar to the US at 19%.
National Interdisciplianry Climate Risk Assessment, Bundesnachrichtendienst, the Bundeswehr University Munich, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and adelphi
Unless explicitly indicated otherwise, the document covers a time frame from today until the year 2040. While this period exceeds the horizon of daily politics, present generations will still largely experience the relevant effects. Climate change is altering and interrupting complex natural and social systems. These processes are not linear. As our globalized world depends on the interaction of manifold systems, even relatively small climatic changes can have massive socioeconomic consequences until 2040.
Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Fall 2024, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University
Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not by a ratio of more than 5 to 1 (73% versus 14%). Two-thirds of Americans (66%) think global warming is affecting weather in the United States. 11% of Americans have considered moving to avoid the impacts of global warming.
California Voters Support Recovering Extreme Weather Event Costs From Oil and Gas Companies, Center for Climate Integrity and Data for Progress
In the wake of the recent wildfires in California, the authors recently surveyed likely voters across the state, including an oversample of Los Angeles County, to investigate awareness of the California Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plan, understand sentiments on the climate change-fueled home insurance crisis, and assess support for proposals to address the crisis. Awareness of the FAIR Plan is low, as a majority of California voters (51%) have not seen or heard anything about the FAIR Plan. However, after being provided with a brief description of it, a majority of California voters report having a favorable view of the FAIR Plan (55%), while a third (34%) still have not heard enough to say. Few voters (11%) hold an unfavorable view of the FAIR Plan after the brief description. Voters across partisanship hold favorable views of the FAIR Plan, with both Independents and Republicans being net +36-point favorable. The fossil fuel industry is widely seen to have at least some responsibility for the recent wildfires in California, as 57% of voters statewide say the industry is very or somewhat responsible. Voters under 45 (77% very or somewhat responsible), Democrats (74%), and Los Angeles County voters (59%) place more responsibility on the fossil fuel industry.
Navigating the new climate. Building Intuition for Strategic Decision Making era, Sarah Kapnick, JP. Morgan
This thought leadership series aims to build climate intuition—to understand future probabilities and ask smarter questions about climate issues, where technology or demand for solutions may evolve, and how policy and geopolitics can lead to a variety of financial outcomes. To develop a more nuanced and proactive approach to climate change. Climate change is a challenge for the economy. Stricter emissions regulations may increase compliance costs, but can also drive new technology innovation over time. Extreme weather can damage infrastructure and stop production, lead to costly repairs and insurance claims, and affect supply chains. Resource competition for water and farmland can increase prices. Shifts in consumer preference for climate-friendly products can affect market share. Success in the New Climate Era hinges on our ability to integrate climate considerations into daily decision-making. Those who adapt will lead, while others risk falling behind.
When coal won’t step aside: The challenge of scaling clean energy in China, Qi Qin and Christine Shearer, The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor
The authors present their H2 2024 biannual review of China’s coal projects. They found that coal is still holding strong despite skyrocketing clean energy additions in 2024. Even as China’s clean energy surged in 2024 and became a key economic driver, solar and wind utilization dropped sharply in Q4 2024, which was not expected or explained by weather conditions, and coal remains strong, which ultimately goes against President Xi’s 2021 pledge to phase down coal over the following five years. China approved 66.7 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity in 2024, with approvals picking up in the second half after a slower start to the year. At the same time, 94.5 GW of new coal power projects started construction and 3.3 GW of suspended projects resumed construction in 2024, the highest level since 2015, signaling a substantial number of new plants will come online in the next 2-3 years, further solidifying coal’s role in the power system.
Carbon Dioxide Removal. Policy Recommendation for a European Strategy, Sofia Ghezzi and Florian Cassier, World Wide Fund for Nature
The current regulating framework is not sufficient to deliver an effective carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy in Europe. There is a lack of clear measures that are needed to define the development and deployment of CDR in Europe, including appropriate targets, safeguarding principles, sustainability criteria, rules on the use of CDR credits, governance, and finance - especially regarding new technologies as permanent carbon dioxide removals. The authors call for strong safeguards to be introduced by European policymakers in all legislation relevant to CDR and for the creation of a consistent policy architecture for CDR. The authors developed policy recommendations to set out the key principles that should be applied by legislators in legislation dealing with CDR in the future. In particular they highlight the importance of CDR only being employed in addition to rapid emission reduction efforts, complementing not undermining mitigation strategies, bringing near-term and genuine CO2 removal based on the best available science and contributing to a just transition.
Redefining Energy Security In the age of electricity, Compass Lexecon
The author's key objectives are to define the forces shaping the new definition of energy security and security of power supply (what we call ‘Security of Supply 2.0’) in Europe and develop methodological principles to assess it; interpret what security of supply (SoS) means for the modern European power system; evaluate the system needs to maintain SoS (adequacy and flexibility) in Europe as a whole and in specific regions/countries while assessing the profitability of asset types; and assess the current investment framework to ensure SoS and develop policy recommendations to fill the gaps and guarantee the Security of Supply in a net-zero world.
Voting Matters 2023. Are asset managers using their proxy votes for action on environmental and social issues?, Sood et al., ShareAction
The authors analyzed how the world’s largest asset managers voted in 2023 on shareholder resolutions that were aimed at addressing environmental and social issues. The overall picture of the results is that support for these resolutions has catastrophically crashed to a level not seen before in the report series. The authors found that in 2023 only 3% of assessed resolutions passed, down from 21% in 2021. Of the environmental resolutions assessed, just 3% passed last year compared to 32% in 2021. Asset managers who voted against resolutions to protect the environment included JP Morgan Asset Management, State Street Global Advisers, and UK-based Baillie Gifford, who have policies claiming they are working to protect the planet by achieving net zero emissions, leaving them open to claims of hypocrisy and greenwashing.
2025 Executive Benchmark on Integrated Reporting, Ascend2, Workiva
The authors polled 1,601 executives as well as 222 institutional investors. Respondents included executives, the C-Suite, and VP/SVPs from organizations across North America, South America, Europe, and Asia. They found that regardless of who’s in power, 85% of executives who intend to disclose greenhouse gas emissions will move forward with disclosures irrespective of any political developments within their country. 97% of executives agree that a strong sustainability reporting program will give businesses a competitive advantage in the next two years.
Flying in 2024 and beyond. Research findings from Wave 13 of the CAA’s UK Aviation Consumer Survey, UK. Civil Aviation Authority
Consumers are flying in the highest numbers since this survey began in 2016, with 62% having flown in the last 12 months. This year’s results reinforce the shift in the demographic profile of recent flyers observed last year, with recent flyers skewing much younger than pre-pandemic. The authors asked consumers to prioritize several different areas, to understand the perceived relative importance of areas that the aviation industry might focus on. The exercise revealed reducing the cost of flying to be the most widespread priority amongst consumers, though this is far from universal – only around a quarter (27%) of consumers would prioritize this above all other areas. However, consumers do not feel the industry’s priorities align with their own, particularly in reducing the cost and environmental impact of flying – two areas where relatively few consumers believe the industry is genuinely committed. Attitudes towards the environment are similar to those seen last year, with widespread concern about the environment, but relatively few consumers are willing to fly less or pay more to offset the environmental impact of flying. As seen last year, consumers tend to see paying for environmental measures as the airline’s responsibility rather than their own. Younger consumers care about the environmental impact of aviation, but results suggest that the affordability of flying may be of greater importance to them.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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Journals covered
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