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What should you do to prepare for the climate change storm?
Posted on 21 August 2024 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters
Like an approaching major hurricane whose outer spiral bands are only just beginning to hit, an approaching climate change storm has begun and will soon grow to ferocious severity — a topic I discussed in detail in my previous post, When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down? This immense tempest is already exposing the precarious foundations upon which civilization is built — an inadequate infrastructure designed for the gentler climate of the 20th century. What should you do to prepare?
On a personal level, you should prepare for the intensifying climate change storm like you would for an approaching major hurricane. If you’re going to stay in place, know your risk, get more insurance, stock up on supplies, weatherproof your home, be ready for long power outages (if you can, get solar panels with battery backup), keep extra courses of essential medicines on hand, and get your finances in order. And if you live in a sufficiently risky place, leave.
Consider standing your ground
Moving to a new place strips you from the web of social connections in your community. As journalist Madeline Ostrander has observed, such ties help people cope during emergencies: “Sense of place, community, and rootedness aren’t just poetic ideas. They are survival mechanisms,” she has written.
So before you pack your bags, first make sure you understand the expected consequences of climate change where you live now. Do those risks outweigh the cost of leaving behind friends, neighbors, family, and professional contacts?
Get insurance
If you decide to remain where you are, it is well worth it to increase your insurance coverage, despite the fact that insurance costs are rising rapidly. Even if you don’t live in a 1-in-100-year flood zone, flood insurance is a good idea for all property owners and renters. The National Flood Insurance Program will insure residential properties for up to $250,000 and the contents for an additional $250,000. Contact your private insurance agent to get a policy.
Defend your home against floods and wildfires
An inch of water in your home can cause $25,000 in damage; check out FEMA’s suggestions on protecting your home from flooding. Some examples:
- Elevate the furnace, water heater, and electric panel if susceptible to flooding.
- Install check valves in sewer traps to prevent floodwater from backing up into your home.
- Point your downspouts away from your home to prevent pooling at the corners of your house.
- Regrade the area around your home so it slopes away from the house — even slightly.
- Plant native grasses and long-rooted perennials in your yard to soak up floodwaters.
- Seal walls in basements with waterproofing compounds to avoid seepage.
- Keep an adequate supply of food, candles, and drinking water in case you are trapped inside your home.
To protect against wind damage, consider the FORTIFIED construction method, a voluntary construction standard backed by decades of research, which your roofing contractor or builder can use to help protect your home against severe weather. FORTIFIED structures can qualify for insurance discounts.
The Department of Homeland Security also has guidelines on how to deal with wildfires. For example:
- Designate a room that can be closed off from outside air. Close all doors and windows. Set up a portable air cleaner to keep indoor pollution levels low when smoky conditions exist.
- Create a fire-resistant zone that is free of leaves, debris, or flammable materials for at least 30 feet from your home.
- Store an N95 mask to protect yourself from smoke inhalation.
If necessary, relocate
No place is safe from weather extremes that our rapidly changing climate will bring. But some places are foolish to continue living in. If you live in a flood plain, barrier island, or high wildfire-risk area where insurance impossible to obtain or very expensive, evacuate. Leave permanently. The insurance market is finally beginning to price climate risk appropriately, and it is sending you a message. Get out of your high-risk living situation and move somewhere safer — particularly if the government offers you a taxpayer-funded buyout. Like a high-stakes game of musical chairs, the music will stop for the coastal property market — perhaps even this year — and you don’t want to be the one left without a chair.
One of my favorite parts of the must-read 2024 book by Abrahm Lustgarten, “On the Move” (my review here), is where the author, who lives in a wildfire-prone portion of the California Bay Area, describes his angst about experiencing the new climate change reality there: skies turned orange by smoke, the constant tension of being prepared to evacuate, rolling blackouts that ruin perishable food, and increased insurance rates. He recounts a phone conversation he had with Tulane University’s urban planning and climate migration expert, Jesse Keenan, where Lustgarten asks him:
“Should I be selling my house and getting —”
He cut me off. “Yes!” came his emphatic reply.
Climate havens
Figure 1. Number of power outages, 2000-2023, by state. Michigan, with 157 outages, was second to only Texas, which had 210. (Image credit: Climate Central)
The most cited U.S. “climate havens” in research papers, publications by national organizations, and by the media are older cities in the Great Lakes region, upper Midwest, and Northeast. They include Ann Arbor, Michigan; Duluth, Minnesota; Minneapolis; Buffalo, New York; Burlington, Vermont; and Madison, Wisconsin. These locations have the advantage of cooler temperatures and abundant water resources. In addition, they are located far from the ocean coast, where hurricanes and sea level rise will be problematic, and well away from the worst wildfire smoke hazards areas of the West. Canada, Norway, Sweden, and Finland are also potential climate havens.
But some of these places may not be great places to move to if the government, city infrastructure, or social and economic conditions are flawed. For example, I like to tout my home state of Michigan as a climate haven. But Michigan has a poor electrical grid and suffers the second-highest number of power outages of any state, behind Texas — a much larger state (Fig. 1). Thus, it is good to consider the quality of the infrastructure of a state you are considering moving to.
Remember that no place is immune from the consequences of climate change. For example, many of the “havens” listed above experienced severe wildfire smoke in summer 2023. And new research on the critical Atlantic ocean current system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, has found that it is more likely than not (59% chance) to collapse in the next 25 years. Over a period of decades following such a collapse, a major disruption to the atmospheric circulation would cause a dangerous increase in extreme weather a few decades from now over northern Europe, including the so-called climate havens of Norway, Sweden, and Finland.
If you can’t move to a climate haven or you prefer not to, you can aim to find someplace closer to home that minimizes the climate risks endemic to your area.
Flood risk
It’s critical to know the current and future flood risk of any place you might want to live. Check out my 2023 post, 30 great tools to determine your flood risk in the U.S. If you live in Miami, New York City, New Jersey, Charleston, Norfolk, Houston, New Orleans, Houston, or the Florida Keys, check out my review of eight great books on flood risks in these places; for California, read the new 2023 book, California Against the Sea.
Figure 2. The U.S. Climate Vulnerability Index for the entire nation. Overall vulnerability is highest for the South.
Interactive maps and other resources
One way to explore the pros and cons of living in a particular U.S. city is through the U.S. Climate Vulnerability Index. Created by the Environmental Defense Fund, Texas A&M, and Darkhorse Analytics, this features an interactive map to explore environmental, social, economic, and infrastructure effects on a city and county level. Grist did a nice write-up of the tool in 2023. Note that there are some glaring problems with this tool. For example, northern Vermont is rated as being one of the least vulnerable locations, but it has seen the highest level of disaster declarations of anywhere in the U.S. over the past 23 years (Fig. 3).
FEMA has an interactive National Risk Index for Natural Hazards map that shows which communities are most at risk from natural hazards. It includes data about the expected annual losses to individual natural hazards, social vulnerability, and community resilience, available at county and census tract levels. A separate National Risk Index tool allows you to access county-level text data on 18 natural hazards. A similar interactive map that allows you to type in an address and see how many major disaster declarations have occurred for that county from 2011-2023 is available from rebuildbydesign.org (Fig. 3)
Figure 3. Number of major disaster declarations by county and U.S. Congressional district, 2011-2023. (Image credit: rebuildbydesign.org)
The tools above merge the physical and environmental risks from climate change with the societal risks that exacerbate weather and climate extremes. This approach provides the most complete picture of the dangers posed to a given community. If you want to consider the physical or environmental component on its own, take a look at these tools:
- An interactive map from The Climate Explorer (NOAA) allows you to explore predicted changes in U.S. temperature, precipitation, and high tide flooding.
- The 2023 National Climate Assessment has individual chapters detailing how climate change is expected to unfold for 10 U.S. regions.
- The American Communities Project has a non-interactive map of county-level climate risks for various hazards.
- Risk Factor from the nonprofit First Street Foundation provides a widely used, freely available tool for determining past, present, and future climate risk of an individual property. Type in an address to see on a one to 10 scale the risk for flood, heat, wildfire, wind, and air pollution hazards. Keep in mind that tools like this are controversial, though. A July 2024 study, National-Scale Flood Hazard Data Unfit for Urban RIsk Management, evaluated the First Street Foundation flood model with another flood model, and found about a “1 in 4 chance of models agreeing upon which properties are at risk”.
Stiff competition for livable places
If you do manage to find a more livable place to live, you may have plenty of competition from millions of others searching for the same thing. For example, Atlanta, which appears on Architectural Digest’s recent list of the top-10 most climate-resilient cities, faces steep challenges if it is to absorb the 1 million-plus climate refugees that could be headed there in the next 30 years. Water scarcity, deficient transportation and sewage infrastructure, social inequality, and lack of affordable housing head the list of issues for the city.
Climate change futurist Alex Steffen is one of the best at communicating the magnitude of the upheavals coming from the planetary crisis (I’m a subscriber to his excellent newsletter.) He recently commented:
But those homes, connected to systems less exposed to risk, where action to ruggedize is progressing, where institutions are functioning at a high level, where public goods and infrastructure are supported and well-managed, and where large numbers of desperate people are not overwhelming support systems — those homes will appreciate in value. Appreciate, I expect, a lot. A run on durability combined with a slow growth of housing supply will inevitably push those with less wealth out — leading to the bitter irony that young and/or poor people may find themselves among the climate-displaced, even when they’re living in some of the safest places on Earth.
The only real answer to this problem is a politics of urgent abundance. We must build at genuinely inclusive scales. If you live in a relatively safe place, and you don’t want it to be trapped in the amber of wealth, your town has to build enough housing (and workplaces and infrastructure and schools and so on) to meet a massive uptick in demand. It will need to go on building for decades. (I wrote a book about why building compact communities at scale is also a critical climate/sustainability solution.)
Not many prosperous towns are ready to do this. The ones that aren’t could quickly turn into enclaves of wealth. A lot of people will be left outside those gates when they close. Still, if you’re lucky or smart enough to get in, you and your family might find yourselves with some of the brightest futures around.
Money
Those with wealth will be much better positioned to weather the coming climate change storm. So it would be prudent now to begin financial planning for the coming planetary crisis; reducing the amount of debt you carry would be a good place to start. And if you have money tied up in fossil fuel companies, consider that their long-term business model must dim dramatically if our futures are to brighten.
Read: How can I make my retirement plan climate-friendly?
Related posts and resources
This is part four of a four-part series on U.S. climate change adaptation. The other parts:
Part one looked at a number of recent government adaptation efforts to prepare the U.S. for our new climate.
Part two looked at how far short U.S. climate change adaptation efforts fall from what is needed.
Part three is an essay giving my observations and speculations on how the planetary crisis may play out.
- Can a colossal extreme weather event galvanize action on the climate crisis?
- Book review: “On the Move” is a must-read account of U.S. climate migration
- Book review: “The Great Displacement” is a must-read
- Part one of my three-part sea level rise series: How fast are the seas rising?
- Part two of my three-part sea level rise series: Eight excellent books on sea level rise risk for U.S. cities
- Part three of my three-part sea level rise series: 30 great tools to determine your flood risk in the U.S.
- Bubble trouble: Climate change is creating a huge and growing U.S. real estate bubble
- Retreat From a Rising Sea: A Book Review
- Susan Crawford’s Substack feed on climate adaptation policy, Moving Day
- Climate futurist Alex Steffen’s newsletter; he also periodically offers a six-week course, A Crash Course in Personal Ruggedization (both have fees)
Bob Henson and Sara Peach contributed to this post.
Head for the hills! Warren Buffet said the time to be scared is when people are greedy, and the time to be greedy is when people are scared, so it sounds like oceanfront property should become a bargain once the scared migrate to Michigan. My own prediction is that in our lifetimes the Statue Of Liberty will not have wet feet, Battery Park will still be there and nobody will have abandoned Manhattan or their beachfront homes or estates due to climate, it will just be wealthier folks living there, like the Obamas with their oceanfront estates in the Vineyard and Hawaii, with an additional two climate escape pods in D.C and Chicago.
Climate change could indeed make properties uninsurable and hard to sell. From stuff.co.nz:
"Homes on parts of New Zealand’s coast will begin losing access to affordable insurance within 15 years, according to a stark new report. Wellington will be hit first, and Christchurch hardest, but all four major cities will be affected, according to new research led by climate and insurance specialist Belinda Storey for the Deep South National Science Challenge.By 2050, at least 10,000 homes in our biggest cities will be effectively uninsurable, however spiking premiums and policy exclusions could start being felt as soon as a decade from now, it concluded."
"In Wellington, just 12cm of sea level rise could see average premiums more than quadruple for about 1700 homes, the report estimates – if insurers fully priced the increased risk into policies. At those levels, people may effectively find they have no insurance cover, said Storey."
www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/123560377/homes-to-start-losing-access-to-insurance-within-15-years--report
Ten to fifteen years is not far away. So it may pay to research the risks in your area now, and sell well before you suddenly find insurance is unavailable. I would say that when insurance companies start increasing premiums to high levels, or refusing cover at any price it could also happen suddenly without much warning. Decision making ruminates away for a long period then reaches sudden tipping points like other things in life..
I visited the outer banks in North Carolina 18 months ago. We stayed in a house on third Street. It was one and a half blocks to the beach. First Street and half of second street were gone.
This week this video was widely on mainstream news of another house there falling in the ocean. I saw a community on the Chesapeake Bay where the houses were uninsurable and a fishing island there is trying to get the feds to spend millions to prevent their island from washing away (a hopeless task).
I saw a video on YouTube of farmers in Vietnam who used to raise rice and now grow salt water fish and crabs. Another foot of sea level rise will overtop their levies and they will become refugees.
The lowest houses are beginning to be washed away world-wide. Insurance rates in Florida and other USA beach front are artificially held down by the government.
Nigelj @2 and Michael Sweet@3,
Thank you for researching and sharing the evidence that clearly contradicts TWFA’s poorly justified opinion that “in our lifetimes ... nobody will have abandoned ... their beachfront homes or estates due to climate”.
Based on a short time doing unbiased investigation and thoughtful consideration I offer the following additional evidence contradicting or weakening TWFA’s poorly justified opinions expressed @1:
A final note: Warren Buffet’s actual statement and the context of it are well presented by Investopedia here. Not quite what TWFA opined.
A point regarding TWFA's opinion about people abandoning Manhattan:
Bloomberg reports on "New York City’s Basement Residents Face Financial Risk of Floods"
Parts of Manhattan may be 'abandoned'.
Oceanfront is fine - if you are on hard rock a few metres above max high tide level. Beachfront - not so much. Soft sediment erodes easily in storm surges and of course, rising tide. TWFA - what data about sealevel rise happening right now are you disputing is true? What data is the basis for your predictions?
Here is some additional information for TWFA, and others who have developed and share misunderstandiings like they have, to thoughtfully consider and respond to.
Today, NPR published the following report: “Coastal flooding is getting more common, even on sunny days”. It is a detailed evidence-based report about the current and future reality regarding the impacts of recent rapid sea level rise due to global warming caused by human activities on this planet. It includes the following quotes:
"The costs of high-tide flooding are enormous. Even a few inches of water can make neighborhoods inaccessible to some residents, including those who use wheelchairs or rely on strollers to transport young children. And standing water can also snarl commutes, block emergency vehicles and cause secondary flooding if sewers back up into buildings or overflow into natural bodies of water."
"Sea levels don’t rise at the same rate everywhere, and the effects of high-tide flooding are even more pronounced in places where sea levels are rising most rapidly, the report notes. In the last 25 years or so, the number of days with high-tide flooding has increased by a whopping 250% or more in many regions, including along the Gulf of Mexico, and in the Mid-Atlantic and the Pacific Islands."
"And there’s no reprieve in sight, as global temperatures continue to increase and sea levels continue to rise. The average number of annual high-tide flood days for the U.S. is expected to top 45 days by mid-century. Local governments in many coastal areas are racing to upgrade infrastructure to withstand salt water, improve sewers and drainage and budget for the costs of damage and disruption from high-tide flooding."
"While high-tide flood forecasts do not consider flooding from storms, the same sea level rise that is driving more sunny day floods also exacerbates coastal storm flooding, as residents of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina experienced following Hurricane Debby. The storm came ashore in Florida as a weak Category 1 hurricane and was quickly downgraded to a Tropical Storm, but storm surge and rain has nonetheless caused catastrophic flooding across the Southeast, in part because rising seas mean the ocean is closer to the built-up coastline."